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IAOS 2018 - Using statistical evidence to inform policy – a UK perspective, R. Bumpstead
- 1. Using statistical evidence to inform policy – a UK perspective Rob Bumpstead Chief of Staff Office for National Statistics, UK
- 2. The UK context -200 -100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 thousands Immigration Emigration Net Migration
- 3. Measuring international migration • A border survey ‘The International Passenger Survey’ • Captures migration intentions and other characteristics • High level figures supplemented by adjustments: • Asylum seekers (administrative source) • Ireland land border crossings (administrative source) • Methodological adjustment for changes in intentions
- 4. A data challenge : Migrants’ lives are complex…
- 5. Example : International students
- 6. The Student Migration Issue (non-EU) 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 Long-termnon-EUinternationalmigrationflows (thousands) Year inflow for formal study (non-EU) outflow for previous study (non-EU) Source: International Passenger Survey, Office for National Statistics
- 7. New administrative source - ‘Exit Checks’ • Expired study visas from April 2015 to March 2016 • Matched with API to identify departure record Visa system Advanced Passenger Information
- 9. Why are the IPS emigration numbers lower…? • To be identified as an emigrating student they need to say:
Editor's Notes
- The example presented relates to international migration and how additional evidence on student migration has enhanced the policy debate.
- Mention net migration target from 2010 (tens of thousands) EU referendum result Student migration Migration no longer just about estimating the population. We want to inform policy decisions by providing evidence on the characteristics of international migrants. We are using a number of data sources to provide the best data on migration patterns, however the main source is the International Passenger Survey
- (Briefly explain that we use a border survey – important for understanding the rationale for using admin data later on)
- The challenge we face is developing and using data sources to measure migration and its impact. People’s lives are complex and they may work, study or live in the UK for other reasons while they are resident, switching between the categories. Some non-British nationals may become British and others may change the length of time they intend to be in the UK. These complex patterns are not always visible in current sources used to measure international migration, particularly the International Passenger Survey, which collects information on migration intentions as people enter and leave the UK. Better information on what migrants actually do and how they move between categories such as work and study is available in administrative data sources across government and our Migration Statistics Transformation Programme is designed to build this evidence so that policy debate can be informed by statistics.
- Our specific example is based on work we completed in August 2017, but it highlights the complexity of assessing different sources against each other when they measure different things in different ways. International students contribute around £25 billion to the UK economy They make up 19% of all students at UK universities Encouraging international students to the UK (who contribute to net migration) is a challenge to policies that aim to reduce net migration.
- The gap between the two lines is where the main debate has occurred. Some have interpreted the gap as non-compliant students overstaying their visas. HE sector – questions the figures Anti-migration groups – claim that students overstay illegally. Statisticians – there are many reasons for the gap and that former student outflow should not be subtracted from the inflow to produce a net flow figure. The big question is ‘How many students leave the UK after their studies?’ In 2017 we answered this by looking at new evidence – ‘Exit Checks’
- We looked at new ‘Exit Checks’ data. These data are a combination of our visa system and the information provided by passengers prior to travel via the ‘Advanced Passenger Information’. This then shows travel records for people by their type of visa (study, work, family).
- We looked at a cohort of sponsored Tier 4 students (12+ month visa) with visa expiry between April 2015 and April 2016. We also linked a further 12 months of travel event data to examine: who left and did not return within 12 months (emigrated) or returned briefly on a short –term visit visa and left again who stayed – either by extending their leave to remain or switching visa type or departing but returning on a new long-term visa The majority of this cohort of international students departed on time 122,000 (64%) – (yellow bar) . 99,100 ( emigrated for more than 1 year), 18,900 came back but on a visit visa and left again (also assume to have emigrated). 57,000 (30%) stayed (blue) – either extended leave to remain for further study or other reasons (work, family etc.) 50.300. Or returned within 12 months on a long-term visa - 7,600 13,200 labelled as unknown or no identified departure – may have left before exit checks programme started, not matched, departure by CTA. Not necessarily overstayers.
- Overall, 46% of non-EU graduating students stated that they were not certain about their post-study migration plans Of the quarter of responding students stating that they intended to stay in the UK or to remain longer than 12 months, 59% also indicated they were uncertain of their intentions. 31% of non-EU students stated that they were very likely or likely to return to the UK within 12 months. Analysis of Exit Checks data revealed that only 6% of non-EU students whose initial study visa expired between April 2015 & April 2016 returned to the UK within 12 months. Of those that gave complete answers and where present for all 3 holiday periods in the past year, 94% of EU and 69% of non-EU students stated they had left the UK at least once over those holiday periods So by using new sources of evidence we have been able to provide greater insight into student migration than would otherwise have been possible based on our traditional sources alone.