iCar


A Reality Check



                   Stephen Chen
             VP, Global InSight LLC
                    September 2012

                  Page1
Outline
a. Design
b. Easy to use
  a. Drive-by-Wire
  b. Autonomous Driving
c. Networked
d. Safe
  i. Active (Pre-collision)
  ii. Passive (Post-collision)
e. Premium priced but affordable ($25K-
   $30K)?
  i. Green isn’t cheap
  ii. Serviceability
  iii. Over the top services


                                 Page2
Steve Jobs dreamed of building an iCar




Where would he start?
What would he like to have in it ?
What can he do given the current
 state of automotive engineering?


                       Page3
What is Apple’s brand promise?




                        Page4
Is Apple good at what car buyers want?




                        Page5
The challenges of designing and producing an
iCar are huge
                            iPhone            iCar


         Lines of code       < 10M          > 100M
        # Components          10K            100K
         # Processors           3            > 100
           # Sensors            3            > 100
           # Displays          1-2            5-30
       Development time   6-12 months      2-3 years
         Testing time     3-6 months       1-2 years
                                         SAE, CAN, LIN,
          Standards/                    FlexRay, CE, FCC,
                            CE, FCC
          Regulatory                       ISO 26262,
                                           NHTSA, EPA



                                Page6
Many tools and processes are available for design

  CAD/CAM
  3-D Printing




                       Page7
As well as for modeling and simulation




                      Page8
Are cars becoming easier to drive?

 Drive-by-Wire is an
  enabling                 Steer-by-wire
                                                     Throttle-by-
  technology                                            wire




                                                          Brake-by-wire


                                     Shift-by-wire




                        Page9
But there are still some issues




                                                         Sudden
                                                       Acceleration
                                                      (Audi, Toyota)



 Throttle-by-wire
  (late 1980s)

                    Shift-by-wire
                    (late 1990s)


                                      Brake-by-wire
                                        (2015?)
                                                          Steer-by-wire
                                                            (2020?)

                                    Page10
Where are we headed?

 Autonomous                          Stanford

  Driving



               DARPA Grand
               Challenge Winners
                          CMU




       Italy




                                   Google



                         Page11
Driving from Italy to China




                         Parma, Italy to Shanghai, China (13,000 km)
                         3 months
                         Two vans in line, sharing navigation duties
                         Not unmanned (hitchhiker!)
                         Electric powered
                         Convoy of four vans, six support trucks
                         20 staff

 http://spectrum.ieee.org/automaton/robotics/robotics-
    software/autonomous-vehicle-driving-from-italy-to-china
                                  Page12
The Google driverless car

                          Joint project with Stanford University
                          2010 - present
                          6 Toyota Prius, Audi TT, Lexus RX450h
                          Over 300,000 driverless miles logged
                          Accident
                              “Fender bender “when driven by human
                              Rear-ended while stopped at a traffic
                             light




http://spectrum.ieee.org/automaton/robotics/artificial-
   intelligence/how-google-self-driving-car-works/
                                Page13
Autonomous Vehicles Challenges

 Public perceptions
    1950’s autonomous concept cars
    Who is the “ultimate driving
     machine”?
 Costs
    Laser guidance System - $70,000
 Safety
 Liability                               1956 Firebird II

 Regulatory
    Nevada first state to license
     autonomous vehicles


                                       1959 Cadillac Cyclone

                           Page14
In-vehicle networking is complex

 3-5 major buses
 Multiple sub-
  networks
 30-100 micro-
  controllers /
  micro-processors
 30-100 sensors
 No redundancy,
  multiple single
  points of failure
 Mission-critical
  functions isolated




                       Page15
Sensors are ubiquitous




                         Page16
Challenges of automotive in-vehicle networks?

 Multiple Time-triggered and Event-triggered protocols
  (including 10G Ethernet)
 Bus contention is an issue as more components are
  added
 EMI issues are difficult to solve
 Research in underway in introducing gateways and
  multiplexors to increase efficiency, security and
  reliability




                           Page17
Vehicle networking outside the car




                     Page18
– Ann Arbor, MI

 US DOT sponsored,
  Umichigan TRI, Aug 2012-13
 3000 vehicles – cars,
  trucks, buses
 Embedded, aftermarket, and
  one-way communication
  devices
 Dozens of radio-equipped
  traffic signals, 10 roadside
  servers
 50 OEMs, Tier 1, Tier 2
  suppliers



http://www.its.dot.gov/safety_pilot/index.htm
                             Page19
program objectives




         Page20
Security of V2V and V2I remains a challenge




                       Page21
Multiple ITS Research Facilities




                        Page22
The iCar must be safe


  Active (Pre-collision)
 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HCoKY_KjVvc
      ABS, ESC
      Tire pressure monitoring
      Adaptive cruise control
      Lane centering
      Stop-and-Go
      Rear camera
      Blind spot camera
      Parking assistance
      Collision avoidance
   http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=drgNmZ74eEc
    Night vision


                            Page23
Even if it crashes

  Passive (Post-collision)
 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=omsLbgKrISo
       Lap/shoulder belts
       Head restraints
       Air bags (front, side, curtain, rear)
       Laminated windshields
       Safety cells
       Anti-intrusion bars
       Crumple zones
       Collapsible steering column
       Padded dashboards
       Anti-submarine seats
       Pedestrian protection system


                                Page24
Green isn’t cheap

 Regulatory requirements
    MPG/CAFÉ
    CO2 reduction
    Toxic gas emissions
    Safety (e.g. seatbelts, air bags,
     rollover protection, abs, esc,..)
    End-of-life (European Union)
 Alternative powertrains
      Hybrids
      Start-stop
      Electric Vehicles
      Fuel cell
      Natural gas
 Sustainable materials
    Recycled materials
    Biomaterials



                                  Page25
Maintaining your iCar

 • Real-time diagnostics
 • Emergency/Roadside assistance
 • Insurance telematics




                        Page26
Finally, new services

  Location aware
      Advertising
      Parking
      Social networking
      Points of interest
  Health and wellness




                            Page27
Health and Wellness – Personal “OnStar”




                          Monitor pollen levels
                          Asthma, cold, cough

                                                        One-Touch Emergency Button
                                                        Two-Way Voice Communication with an
                                                        Emergency Response Specialist
                                                        Audible Alert Notifications
                                                        Always On
                                                        Automatic Time Adjustment
                                                        Illuminated Display
                                                        Rechargeable Battery
                                                        Base Station Charger - Illuminates to confirm the
                                                        device is docked and charging and can be used as
Glucose monitors attached to driver                    a night light.
Bluetooth connection to car
Navigate to clinic/hospital if blood sugar too low




                                                      Page28
What is in the iCar app store?

 Today
      Mobile internet radio          iCar Radio Lite


      Locate parked car and how to get there                  iCar App

      Manage expiration dates
                                             iCar Management
      Record accident
                              iCar BlackBox
      Engine tuning     iCAR

      Manage gas usage       iCar Care
      …


 Tommorow?




                                    Page29
Someday soon?




                Page30

I Car2.0

  • 1.
    iCar A Reality Check Stephen Chen VP, Global InSight LLC September 2012 Page1
  • 2.
    Outline a. Design b. Easyto use a. Drive-by-Wire b. Autonomous Driving c. Networked d. Safe i. Active (Pre-collision) ii. Passive (Post-collision) e. Premium priced but affordable ($25K- $30K)? i. Green isn’t cheap ii. Serviceability iii. Over the top services Page2
  • 3.
    Steve Jobs dreamedof building an iCar Where would he start? What would he like to have in it ? What can he do given the current state of automotive engineering? Page3
  • 4.
    What is Apple’sbrand promise? Page4
  • 5.
    Is Apple goodat what car buyers want? Page5
  • 6.
    The challenges ofdesigning and producing an iCar are huge iPhone iCar Lines of code < 10M > 100M # Components 10K 100K # Processors 3 > 100 # Sensors 3 > 100 # Displays 1-2 5-30 Development time 6-12 months 2-3 years Testing time 3-6 months 1-2 years SAE, CAN, LIN, Standards/ FlexRay, CE, FCC, CE, FCC Regulatory ISO 26262, NHTSA, EPA Page6
  • 7.
    Many tools andprocesses are available for design  CAD/CAM  3-D Printing Page7
  • 8.
    As well asfor modeling and simulation Page8
  • 9.
    Are cars becomingeasier to drive?  Drive-by-Wire is an enabling Steer-by-wire Throttle-by- technology wire Brake-by-wire Shift-by-wire Page9
  • 10.
    But there arestill some issues Sudden Acceleration (Audi, Toyota) Throttle-by-wire (late 1980s) Shift-by-wire (late 1990s) Brake-by-wire (2015?) Steer-by-wire (2020?) Page10
  • 11.
    Where are weheaded?  Autonomous Stanford Driving DARPA Grand Challenge Winners CMU Italy Google Page11
  • 12.
    Driving from Italyto China  Parma, Italy to Shanghai, China (13,000 km)  3 months  Two vans in line, sharing navigation duties  Not unmanned (hitchhiker!)  Electric powered  Convoy of four vans, six support trucks  20 staff http://spectrum.ieee.org/automaton/robotics/robotics- software/autonomous-vehicle-driving-from-italy-to-china Page12
  • 13.
    The Google driverlesscar  Joint project with Stanford University  2010 - present  6 Toyota Prius, Audi TT, Lexus RX450h  Over 300,000 driverless miles logged  Accident  “Fender bender “when driven by human  Rear-ended while stopped at a traffic light http://spectrum.ieee.org/automaton/robotics/artificial- intelligence/how-google-self-driving-car-works/ Page13
  • 14.
    Autonomous Vehicles Challenges Public perceptions  1950’s autonomous concept cars  Who is the “ultimate driving machine”?  Costs  Laser guidance System - $70,000  Safety  Liability 1956 Firebird II  Regulatory  Nevada first state to license autonomous vehicles 1959 Cadillac Cyclone Page14
  • 15.
    In-vehicle networking iscomplex  3-5 major buses  Multiple sub- networks  30-100 micro- controllers / micro-processors  30-100 sensors  No redundancy, multiple single points of failure  Mission-critical functions isolated Page15
  • 16.
  • 17.
    Challenges of automotivein-vehicle networks?  Multiple Time-triggered and Event-triggered protocols (including 10G Ethernet)  Bus contention is an issue as more components are added  EMI issues are difficult to solve  Research in underway in introducing gateways and multiplexors to increase efficiency, security and reliability Page17
  • 18.
  • 19.
    – Ann Arbor,MI  US DOT sponsored, Umichigan TRI, Aug 2012-13  3000 vehicles – cars, trucks, buses  Embedded, aftermarket, and one-way communication devices  Dozens of radio-equipped traffic signals, 10 roadside servers  50 OEMs, Tier 1, Tier 2 suppliers http://www.its.dot.gov/safety_pilot/index.htm Page19
  • 20.
  • 21.
    Security of V2Vand V2I remains a challenge Page21
  • 22.
    Multiple ITS ResearchFacilities Page22
  • 23.
    The iCar mustbe safe  Active (Pre-collision) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HCoKY_KjVvc  ABS, ESC  Tire pressure monitoring  Adaptive cruise control  Lane centering  Stop-and-Go  Rear camera  Blind spot camera  Parking assistance  Collision avoidance http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=drgNmZ74eEc  Night vision Page23
  • 24.
    Even if itcrashes  Passive (Post-collision) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=omsLbgKrISo  Lap/shoulder belts  Head restraints  Air bags (front, side, curtain, rear)  Laminated windshields  Safety cells  Anti-intrusion bars  Crumple zones  Collapsible steering column  Padded dashboards  Anti-submarine seats  Pedestrian protection system Page24
  • 25.
    Green isn’t cheap Regulatory requirements  MPG/CAFÉ  CO2 reduction  Toxic gas emissions  Safety (e.g. seatbelts, air bags, rollover protection, abs, esc,..)  End-of-life (European Union)  Alternative powertrains  Hybrids  Start-stop  Electric Vehicles  Fuel cell  Natural gas  Sustainable materials  Recycled materials  Biomaterials Page25
  • 26.
    Maintaining your iCar • Real-time diagnostics • Emergency/Roadside assistance • Insurance telematics Page26
  • 27.
    Finally, new services  Location aware  Advertising  Parking  Social networking  Points of interest  Health and wellness Page27
  • 28.
    Health and Wellness– Personal “OnStar” Monitor pollen levels Asthma, cold, cough One-Touch Emergency Button Two-Way Voice Communication with an Emergency Response Specialist Audible Alert Notifications Always On Automatic Time Adjustment Illuminated Display Rechargeable Battery Base Station Charger - Illuminates to confirm the device is docked and charging and can be used as Glucose monitors attached to driver a night light. Bluetooth connection to car Navigate to clinic/hospital if blood sugar too low Page28
  • 29.
    What is inthe iCar app store?  Today  Mobile internet radio iCar Radio Lite  Locate parked car and how to get there iCar App  Manage expiration dates iCar Management  Record accident iCar BlackBox  Engine tuning iCAR  Manage gas usage iCar Care  …  Tommorow? Page29
  • 30.