This document summarizes a webinar about reducing analytical bias in competitive intelligence by applying Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH). It introduces ACH as a technique developed by a CIA veteran to overcome cognitive biases. The webinar discusses how ACH follows a structured, logical process and allows collaboration. Examples are provided of using ACH to analyze scenarios around the Chinese economy and decisions facing a school district.
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Bộ tài liệu đào tạo Du lịch có trách nhiệm được Dự án EU xây dựng dành cho các Đào tạo viên tiến hành triển khai công tác đào tạo, tập huấn về Du lịch có trách nhiệm tại Việt Nam.
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Bộ tài liệu đào tạo Du lịch có trách nhiệm được Dự án EU xây dựng dành cho các Đào tạo viên tiến hành triển khai công tác đào tạo, tập huấn về Du lịch có trách nhiệm tại Việt Nam.
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Social Media Prescription for PhysiciansHelen Madamba
A non-me dical topic given as a lecture to physicians in Zamboanga City. We encourage healthcare professionals to have a presence on social media. We need to be where our patients are, and as of today, they are on social media. Patients turn to social media for information. It is the responsibility of healthcare professionals to ensure that the health information on social media is accurate, reliable and ethical.
Anàlisi exhaustiva del resultats d’exportacions de l’any 2015, any en què es va tornar a assolir una xifra rècord per cinquè any consecutiu amb unes vendes totals a l’exterior de 63.838,9M€. El document analitza l’evolució de les exportacions, la potencialitat exportadora de Catalunya, el perfil de les empreses exportadores i l’anàlisi sectorial, geogràfica i per províncies.
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mHealth Israel_Rhoen Innovations_Hospitals + Digital TransformationLevi Shapiro
Presentation for mHealth Israel meetup, Nov 8, 2016, by Nils Bottler, SVP, Rhoen Innovations, Rhoen Klinikum AG. Includes overview of Rhoen Klinikum, Background of the German Healthcare System, Major Trends in Digital Health, Innovation Needs for Health Systems, Campus Model approach toward innovation, Startup Investment structure, Environment for testing products of potential investments in a clinical setting, Venture Funding, Marketing & Distribution, Medical Expertise.
Anterior Segment Company Showcase - Sensimed AGHealthegy
Anterior Segment Company Showcase - Sensimed AG at OIS@AAO 2016.
Presenter:
David Bailey, CEO
Powered by:
Healthegy
For more ophthalmology innovation
Visit us at www.ois.net
Anterior Segment Company Showcase - ReVision OpticsHealthegy
Anterior Segment Company Showcase - ReVision Optics at OIS@AAO 2016.
Presenter:
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Powered by:
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For more ophthalmology innovation
Visit us at www.ois.net
mHealth Israel_Martin Hirsch_CEO_APHP_Greater Paris University Hospitals_Nov,...Levi Shapiro
Presentation for mHealth Israel by Martin Hirsch, CEO, l' APHP (Greater Paris University Hospitals), Nov 20, 2016. Includes an overview of the 39 hospitals in the system, IT processes and infrastructure, Clinical Data Warehouse, Genomics / bio-informatics platform
NEW LAUNCH! How to Enable Real-Time Mobile App Engagement with Amazon PinpointAmazon Web Services
Amazon Pinpoint, a new AWS service, makes it easy to run targeted campaigns to improve user engagement. Pinpoint helps you understand app user behavior, define who to target, what push notification to send, when to deliver the notifications, and track results.
StartUp Health - Private Market Perspectives - Digital Healthcare Innovation ...Healthegy
Presentation by StartUp Health at Digital Healthcare Innovation Summit 2016.
Participant:
Katya Hancock, Director of Strategic Partnerships – StartUp Health
Introduced By:
Tom Salemi, Content Director – Healthegy
Powered by:
Healthegy
For more healthcare innovation
Visit us at Healthegy.com
Presentation to the mHealth Israel community on Dec 8th by Ilan Nacasch, Chief Business Officer, Syneron Candela. Includes examples, strategies and campaigns of successful B2B2C Marketing and B2C2B Marketing for the healthcare and aesthetics market. The Marketing Value Creation Wheel involves Patient Demand, Lead Generation and Conversion. Ryan Lochte as Brand Ambassador and the PR coverage it generated. FOMO can blur the line between B2C and B2B and can help your customers to bring consumers.
Luận văn chuyên khoa II 2002-2008 trường Đại học y dược Huế
Website : Notiethoc.com tải sách, tài liệu y học y khoa theo yêu cầu, tìm tài liệu y học, Tài liệu y học miễn phí phong phú
NEW LAUNCH IPv6 in the Cloud: Virtual Private Cloud Deep DiveAmazon Web Services
In this session, we explore AWS support for IPv6 for full end-to-end connectivity for EC2 instances inside of a VPC. IPv6 on EC2 instances introduces new capabilities and interesting new wrinkles into the VPC model. Customer VPCs receive IPv6 addresses from an Amazon address block, and existing features such as security groups, network ACLs, route tables, peering, and gateways have been enhanced to support IPv6. Finally, we look at some future capabilities planned for IPv6 in VPC.
Bài 11: Kinh doanh dịch vụ ăn uống có trách nhiệmduanesrt
Bộ tài liệu đào tạo Du lịch có trách nhiệm được Dự án EU xây dựng dành cho các Đào tạo viên tiến hành triển khai công tác đào tạo, tập huấn về Du lịch có trách nhiệm tại Việt Nam.
Bộ tài liệu đào tạo được phát triển trên cơ sở Bộ công cụ Du lịch có trách nhiệm do Dự án EU xây dựng gồm 16 bài theo hình thức slide trình chiếu. Các Đào tạo viên có thể sử dụng kết hợp, nhóm các bài lại với nhau để xây dựng thành các bài giảng theo nhiều chủ đề hướng tới các đối tượng khác nhau một cách linh hoạt và hiệu quả.
Bài 12: Chính sách và quy hoạch du lịch có trách nhiệm đối với các cơ quan qu...duanesrt
Bộ tài liệu đào tạo Du lịch có trách nhiệm được Dự án EU xây dựng dành cho các Đào tạo viên tiến hành triển khai công tác đào tạo, tập huấn về Du lịch có trách nhiệm tại Việt Nam.
Bộ tài liệu đào tạo được phát triển trên cơ sở Bộ công cụ Du lịch có trách nhiệm do Dự án EU xây dựng gồm 16 bài theo hình thức slide trình chiếu. Các Đào tạo viên có thể sử dụng kết hợp, nhóm các bài lại với nhau để xây dựng thành các bài giảng theo nhiều chủ đề hướng tới các đối tượng khác nhau một cách linh hoạt và hiệu quả.
How to Challenge Assumptions and Surface Hidden Advantages Using a Cross-Func...IntelCollab.com
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How to Reduce Analytical Bias by Applying Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH)
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How to Reduce Analytical Bias
by Applying Analysis of
Competing Hypotheses (ACH)
A Complimentary Webinar from Aurora WDC
12:00 Noon Eastern /// 24 July 2013
~ featuring ~
Dan Mulligan Michel Bernaiche
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Dan Mulligan
Dan Mulligan is on the faculty of the Academy of
Competitive Intelligence (ACI) and has presented at SCIP
conferences every year since 2007. At the 2011 SCIP
Conference in Orlando, Florida, he was recognized with the
“Best Conference Presentation”. His corporate experience
includes work in the medical, pharmaceutical,
manufacturing, and consulting industries. Through the Dale
Carnegie organization, he trained, taught, and consulted
with over 200 of the Fortune 500 companies over the past
19 years, focusing on leadership and communications.
Email: DanMulligan82@gmail.com
The Intelligence Collaborative is the online learning and networking
community powered by Aurora WDC, our clients, partners and other friends
and dedicated to exploring how to apply intelligence methods to solve real-
world business problems.
Apply for a free 30-day trial membership at http://IntelCollab.com or learn
more about Aurora at http://AuroraWDC.com – see you next time!
3. The Intelligence Collaborative
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α Use the Questions pane on your
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file, please register for a trial membership at
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Questions, Commentary & Content
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Agenda
► Competitive Intelligence Process
► Analytic problems in CI
► Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH)
► Examples
► Summary, Q&A and Discussion
7. The Intelligence Collaborative
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Information and Intelligence
7Introduction to Intelligence
Information Intelligence
Scattered Bits of Data
Evaluated, Filtered, Distilled,
Analyzed Information
Unrefined
End Product of a Complex
Process
Raw & Unfinished Basis for Action
19. The Intelligence Collaborative
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Analysis Of Competing Hypotheses
►Richards J. Heuer Jr.
►45yr. CIA veteran
►Developed ACH after
studying cognitive
psychology Richards J. Heuer Jr.
Photo courtesy the Center for the Study of Intelligence
21. The Intelligence Collaborative
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Analysis Of Competing Hypotheses
• Reduces cognitive
biases
• Logical
• Auditable
Strengths
• Snapshot in time
• Dependent on validity of
evidence
• Time consuming
Weaknesses
25. The Intelligence Collaborative
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PARC Software
►Developed by the
Palo Alto Research
Center (PARC)
►ACH2.0.3
►Developed in
collaboration with
Richards J. Heuer,
Jr.
D
d http://www2.parc.com/istl/projects/ach/ach.html
44. The Intelligence Collaborative
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Dan Mulligan
Thank you! Now how about a
little Q&A?
Email: DanMulligan82@gmail.com
The Intelligence Collaborative is the online learning and networking
community powered by Aurora WDC, our clients, partners and other friends
and dedicated to exploring how to apply intelligence methods to solve real-
world business problems.
Apply for a free 30-day trial membership at http://IntelCollab.com or learn
more about Aurora at http://AuroraWDC.com – see you next time!
Editor's Notes
Richards Heuer is the author of Psychology of Intelligence Analysis. Heuer spent 45 years gaining experience in intelligence and security working for the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA). In addition to publishing work on the psychology of intelligence analysis, he also published works on counterintelligence, deception, analytical methodologies, and personnel security issues.
The scientific method is a proven process based on the rejection of hypotheses in which the analyst accepts only those which are not disproven. Traditional intelligence analysis does not seek to refute hypotheses, but tends to seek confirmation of initial judgments. Cognitive biases are mental errors caused by simplifying information processing strategies. Emotional or intellectual predispositions toward certain judgments do not cause cognitive biases; rather, cognitive biases are the result of subconscious mental shortcuts for processing information.Analysis of Competing Hypotheses ACH assists analysts in identifying and questioning basic assumptions providing a means to test hypotheses. ACH is an eight-step procedure that allows analysts to leave an audit trail, unlike other decision-making processes. In order to prevent distortions caused by cognitive biases, Heuer’s method requires analysts to explicitly identify all reasonable hypotheses. Hypotheses compete for the analyst’s favor, eliminating satisficing because the analyst is working with all possible rational hypotheses. Typically, analysts identify what appears to be the most promising hypothesis before collecting and organizing information based on whether it supports or refutes the hypothesis the analyst has chosen. Often incongruent information is not fully exploited, nor are other hypotheses tested. When testing one hypothesis at a time, biases and mindsets are harder to dispel.
AuditableWith ACH, analysts note all evidence and hypotheses on paper, making the path from collection to final estimate easier to follow.Overcomes cognitive biasesIndividually analyzing each piece of evidence can give analysts a skewed view of the overall picture. Using ACH, disproving hypotheses provides a more effective method for avoiding established mental roadblocks.LogicalThe competitive aspect of ACH forces analysts to examine hypotheses more logically than separating them for reviewing one at a time.ACH is similar to Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM).Although ACH is more effective than less-systematic, traditional approaches, no process is without drawbacks.Snapshot in timeThe evidence used in the analysis is static, while events are dynamic. In order to provide a timely analytic product, analysts must determine a point at which to halt collection in order to prepare the estimate. Dependent on validity of evidenceAnalysis is only as good as the evidence that goes into the process. Unreliable evidence can undermine even the most thoughtful process execution. As evidence can be ambiguous and prone to the pitfalls of deceptive tactics, it is difficult to determine reliability and validity of the inputs. No better than the skill of the analyst using the processThe degree to which ACH can reduce cognitive biases reflects the skill of the analyst using it. A successful analyst must be imaginative when generating hypotheses, keeping his mind open to all possibilities, rather than attempting to anticipate an outcome before examining the evidence. He must also carefully weigh the reliability and relevance of the evidence.Time consumingPerforming the ACH process manually can be long and arduous, especially when there are numerous hypotheses and a large body of evidence. Due to the amount of time that it takes to do this by hand and the time pressures analysts usually encounter, they do not apply the method as often as might be appropriate. For this reason, automation of ACH is critical and will be discussed in the next lesson.
Structure is provided by delving deeper into the previous hypothesis and further exploiting the evidence, or gathering more.Automation, and structure with PARC Software facilitates the analysis of the second level of hypothesis testingIn other words, structure enables analysis of complex problems consisting of several questions by deconstructing the complex question into simple questions with either yes, no answers or mutually exclusive answers. Then ACH is applied to the root question, and the remaining questions are added to the winning hypothesis and ACH is applied again. (Added by NSA, 1Sep06)
Using SACH eases the process for analysts from start to finish. SACH closes evidence gaps, creating a tighter finished product.Documenting every step in SACH later helps analysts easily follow the estimative process. Because SACH provides a trail of auditable information, should the analyst provide an incorrect estimate, it is easier to evaluate what went wrong.In conclusion:SACH allows analysts to coordinate which evidence to test with the hypotheses the analyst is testing. It also allows the analyst to deal more effectively with large amounts of evidence.SACH assists managers in supervising and monitoring analysts’ progress.SACH provides decisionmakers with higher-quality products, and makes it easier for them to see exactly how the analyst arrived at the final estimate. When presenting to decisionmakers, analysts will more effectively produce documents with the bottom lines up front (BLUF) because the automation of SACH helps analysts discover and prove the bottom line.SACH improves oversight, as products are more easily defendable by clearly tracing all thought processes back to the original evidence.
The software takes an analyst through a process for making a well-reasoned, analytical judgment. Usefulfor issues that require weighing of alternative explanations of what has/is/or may happenIt helps the analyst overcomesome cognitive limitations that make prescient intelligence analysis difficult. ACH is grounded in psychology, decision analysis, and the scientific method. It helps analysts protect themselves from avoidable errorImproves their chances of making a correct judgment
Analysis of Competing HypothesesClassic Intelligence Techniques
AuditableWith ACH, analysts note all evidence and hypotheses on paper, making the path from collection to final estimate easier to follow.Overcomes cognitive biasesIndividually analyzing each piece of evidence can give analysts a skewed view of the overall picture. Using ACH, disproving hypotheses provides a more effective method for avoiding established mental roadblocks.LogicalThe competitive aspect of ACH forces analysts to examine hypotheses more logically than separating them for reviewing one at a time.ACH is similar to Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM).Although ACH is more effective than less-systematic, traditional approaches, no process is without drawbacks.Snapshot in timeThe evidence used in the analysis is static, while events are dynamic. In order to provide a timely analytic product, analysts must determine a point at which to halt collection in order to prepare the estimate. Dependent on validity of evidenceAnalysis is only as good as the evidence that goes into the process. Unreliable evidence can undermine even the most thoughtful process execution. As evidence can be ambiguous and prone to the pitfalls of deceptive tactics, it is difficult to determine reliability and validity of the inputs. No better than the skill of the analyst using the processThe degree to which ACH can reduce cognitive biases reflects the skill of the analyst using it. A successful analyst must be imaginative when generating hypotheses, keeping his mind open to all possibilities, rather than attempting to anticipate an outcome before examining the evidence. He must also carefully weigh the reliability and relevance of the evidence.Time consumingPerforming the ACH process manually can be long and arduous, especially when there are numerous hypotheses and a large body of evidence. Due to the amount of time that it takes to do this by hand and the time pressures analysts usually encounter, they do not apply the method as often as might be appropriate. For this reason, automation of ACH is critical and will be discussed in the next lesson.