This document summarizes findings from a study on the early career earnings of trade certificate holders in Canada. Key findings include: - Journeypersons earn between $62,200-$71,600 on average annually, with Red Seal trades earning slightly more at $64,000-$73,800. - Male journeypersons earn significantly more than female journeypersons, between $67,200-$77,000 compared to $31,400-$35,700. - Earnings vary substantially between different trade categories, with mechanical, electrical, and metal trades earning the most on average and other trades like hairstylist earning the least. - Completing an apprenticeship leads to higher earnings than qualifying as a journey

1. How Much
Do They Make?
New evidence on the early career earnings of
trade certificate holders
Ross Finnie, Michael Dubois, and Masashi Miyairi

2. Outline
• What is EPRI?
• How Much Do They Make Series
• Skilled trades
• Data and analytical approach
• Earnings results
• Overall, by category, and by trade
• PSE graduate comparisons
• Next steps
2

3. What is EPRI?
• The Education Policy Research Initiative
• National research group based at the University of Ottawa
• Main themes: education, skills, and the labour market
• Research that informs policy discussions
• Expertise in complex longitudinal datasets

4. How Much Do They Make Series
• Partnership between EPRI and LMIC
• Objective
• Inform stakeholder decision with timely earnings information
• With timely, evidence on early career earnings
• Two reports
• PSE credentials (from certificate to Ph.D.)
• Skilled trades certifications
• Myriad of related materials
• Earnings dashboards, infographics, videos and blogs, media coverage

5. How Much Do They Make Series
• Education and Labour Market Longitudinal Platform (ELMLP)
• PSE administrative data (PSIS)
• information on trades training (RAIS)
• tax data (T1FF)
• Heavily influenced by past EPRI work
• uOttawa pilot PSE administrative data linked to tax data
• ESDC-EPRI Barista or Better Project, 14 institutions

6. Skilled Trades
• 1 out of 5 Canadians work in the skilled trades
• Literature on LMO of journeypersons pales in comparison to PSE
graduates’
• Past studies finds:
• Small share of women, gravitate to low earning trades
• Earnings vary significantly from year to year, more so than PSE graduates
• Male-dominated trades earn more than female-dominated ones
• Journeypersons, on average, earn more than PSE graduates, at first.

7. Data and Analytical Approach
• 2008 onward
• Virtually complete coverage
• Demographic and Program information
• Gender
• Province
• Age
• Trade code
• Program duration
• Registration status
• Date of certification
• Red Seal endorsement
Registered Apprenticeship Information System (RAIS)

8. Data and Analytical Approach
• Earnings, other employment income, # T4 slips
• Self-employment income
• EI, SA & CTB
• PSE tax credits
• CPP/QPP & RPP contributions, union dues
• NAICS: main, second, #
• Province & tax prov.
• Sex & age
• # of children, family type/size
T1 Family File (T1FF)

9. Data and Analytical Approach
• Occupation
• Other job characteristics, including indicators of job quality
• Hours/weeks worked (voluntarily or involuntarily)
• No PSE or trade certification comparison
• Rate of return
• Workers’ skills
• Limited post-graduation coverage
Data Limitations

10. Data and Analytical Approach
• Cohort-by-cohort
• Year-by-year after graduation
• First at the overall credential level
• Then by journeyperson characteristics
Tracking post-graduation earnings

11. Data and Analytical Approach
• Journeypersons certified between 2008-2016 (*2009)
• Annual earnings through 2017 (reported in $2016 to match PSE report)
• Three Restrictions
1. Non-tax-filers removed (for that year) (6%)
2. Less than $1,000 annually (for that year) (2-6%)
3. Indication of further PSE/training (from there onward) (3-16%)
Sample

12. Data and Analytical Approach
employment income
positive net self-employment income
"Indian exempt" employment income
other employment income
E A R N I N G S
Earnings Measure

13. Trades and Trade Categories
• RAIS: 385+ trades
• 56 Red Seal Trades
Common standards to
assess the skills of
tradespeople across Canada

14. Trades and Trade Categories
Architectural & Construction Trades (12)
• Bricklayer, Carpenter, Roofer,
Electrical Trades (4)
• Construction electrician, Powerline tech.
Mechanical Trades (10)
• Gasfitter, Plumber, Sprinkler fitter
Metal Trades (9)
• Boilermaker, Ironworker, Machinist,
Vehicle & Related Trades (15)
• Parts technician, Heavy equipment operator
Other (6)
• Appliance service tech, cook, baker, hairstylist

15. Distribution of Journeypersons
15
All Female Male
# Distribution Share Distribution Share Distribution
All Trades (385) 40,900 100.0% 8.8% 100.0% 91.1% 100.0%
Electrical 6,430 20.0% 1.4% 3.2% 98.6% 21.6%
Metal 5,280 16.4% 2.3% 4.2% 97.7% 17.6%
Mechanical 5,440 16.9% 1.3% 2.5% 98.7% 18.3%
Other 3,440 10.7% 67.4% 82.0% 32.6% 3.8%
Vehicle & Related 5,450 16.9% 2.2% 4.2% 97.8% 18.1%
Trade Category
Architectural & Construction 6,200 19.3% 1.8% 3.9% 98.2% 20.7%
Red Seal Trades (56) 32,200 78.7% 8.8% 78.6% 91.3% 78.9%

16. 16
Mean Earnings
All Trades and
Red Seal Trades
• All Trades (385+)
• $62,200 - $71,600
• RS Trades (56)
• $64,000 - $73,800
• 3% avg. difference
• Non-RS Trades
• $55,500 - $62,500
• 2014, Energy sector decline
$-
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
$70,000
$80,000
$90,000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
All Trades Red Seal Trades Non-Red Seal Trades

17. 17
Mean Earnings
Male vs Female
• Women
• $31,400 - $35,700
• Men
• $67,200 - $77,000
$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
$70,000
$80,000
$90,000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Female Male

18. 18
Mean Earnings
Completer and
Qualifiers
• Completers
• $65,600 - $75,900
• Qualifiers
• $60,300 - $68,700
• Gap
• $5,300 - $7,500 (7–
10%)
$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
$70,000
$80,000
$90,000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Apprenticeship completers Trade qualifiers

19. Mean Earnings
Trade Groups
• Other
• $31,800 - $38,200
• Architectural/Construction
• $50,200 - $56,900
• Vehicle & Related
• $66,900 - $80,800
• Metal
• $73,100 - $84,100
• Electrical
• $74,200 - $85,900
• Mechanical
• $76,500 - $84,000
$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
$70,000
$80,000
$90,000
$100,000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Architectural/Construction Electrical Mechanical
Metal Vehicle & Related Other

20. 20
Mean Earnings
Trade Category
and Gender
• Mechanical: inconsistent
• Metal: 84-79%
• Electrical: 88-85%
• Arch/Const: 86-78%
• Vehicle & Related: 79-71%
• Other: 56-54%
• Excl. Rig tech: 60-67%
$0
$20,000
$40,000
$60,000
$80,000
$100,000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Architectural & Construction
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Electrical
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Mechanical
$0
$20,000
$40,000
$60,000
$80,000
$100,000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Metal
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Vehicle & Related
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Other

21. Mean Earnings
Trades and PSE
Graduates
$-
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
$70,000
$80,000
$90,000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Women
College-level Certificate
College-level Diploma
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Men
Bachelor’s Degree
Journeypersons

22. Mean Earnings
Trades and PSE
Graduates
$-
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
$70,000
$80,000
$90,000
Women, Y1
$-
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
$70,000
$80,000
$90,000
Women, Y7
$-
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
$70,000
$80,000
$90,000
Men, Y1
$-
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
$70,000
$80,000
$90,000
$100,000
Men, Y7

23. 23
Mean Earnings
Architecture &
Construction
Trades
86%
• 57% Carpenters
• 12% Tilesetters
• 7% Roofers
• 5% Bricklayers
• 4% Lathers (Interior Systems Mech)
$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
$70,000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Bricklayer Carpenter Lather (Interior Systems Mechanic) Roofer Tilesetter

24. 24
Mean Earnings
Electrical
Trades
94%
• 80% Construction electricians
• 14% Industrial electricians
$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
$70,000
$80,000
$90,000
$100,000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Construction Electrician Industrial Electrician

25. 25
Mean Earnings
Mechanical
Trades
90%
• 28% Plumber
• 21% Gasfitter – Class A
• 21% Steamfitter/Pipefitter
• 11% Refrigeration and Air
Conditioning Mechanic
• 8% Instrumentation and Control
Technician
$0
$20,000
$40,000
$60,000
$80,000
$100,000
$120,000
$140,000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Gasfitter - Class A Instrumentation and Control Technician
Plumber Refrigeration and Air Conditioning Mechanic
Steamfitter/Pipefitter

26. 26
Mean Earnings
Metal Trades
90%
• 36% Welder
• 30% Industrial Mechanic (Millwright)
• 10% Sheet Metal Worker
• 9% Machinist
• 4% Ironworker (Reinforcing)
$0
$20,000
$40,000
$60,000
$80,000
$100,000
$120,000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Industrial Mechanic (Millwright) Ironworker (Reinforcing)
Machinist Sheet Metal Worker
Welder

27. 27
Mean Earnings
Vehicle &
Related Trades
87%
• 40% Automotive Service Technician
• 21% Heavy Duty Equipment
Technician
• 16% Truck and Transport Mechanic
• 5% Motor Vehicle Body Repairer
(Metal and Paint)
• 5% Mobile Crane Operator
$0
$20,000
$40,000
$60,000
$80,000
$100,000
$120,000
$140,000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Automotive Service Tech Heavy Duty Equipment Tech
Mobile Crane Operator Motor Vehicle Body Repairer
Truck and Transport Mechanic

28. 28
Mean Earnings
Other Trades
99%
• 63% Hairstylist
• 25% Cook
• 4% Baker
• 4% Landscape Horticulturist
• 3% Rig Technician
$0
$20,000
$40,000
$60,000
$80,000
$100,000
$120,000
$140,000
$160,000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Baker Cook Hairstylist Landscape Horticulturist Rig Technician

29. Next Steps
• Modelling framework
• Red Seal, specific trades, completers and non-completers,
combinations of trades and PSE training, mobility, etc.
• Ongoing data enhancements
• Comprehensive and timely information
• A tool to assess the impact of COVID, albeit after the fact
29

30. How Much
Do They Make?

31. How Much
Do They Make?
New evidence on the early career earnings of
trade certificate holders
Ross Finnie, Michael Dubois, and Masashi Miyairi