CBO’s health insurance simulation model (HISIM) generates estimates of health insurance coverage and premiums for the population under age 65. HISIM is used to help develop baseline projections (which incorporate the assumption that current law generally remains the same) and also to model proposed changes in policies that affect health insurance coverage.
Currently, CBO is developing and testing a new version of HISIM to respond to continued Congressional interest in understanding the effects of legislative proposals that significantly affect health insurance coverage. The new model will be used to help develop CBO’s spring 2019 baseline projections and subsequent cost estimates.
Presentation by Jessica Banthin, Deputy Assistant Director in CBO’s Health, Retirement, and Long-Term Analysis Division (HRLD), and Alexandra Minicozzi, Chief of HRLD’s Health Insurance Modeling Unit, to CBO’s panel of health advisers.
To prepare its spring 2019 baseline budget projections, CBO is using new sources of data as inputs and has completely revamped the way it models consumers’ and employers’ behavior. To that end, it has developed HISIM2, a new version of the model CBO uses to generate estimates of health insurance coverage and premiums for the population under age 65. The model is used in conjunction with other models to develop baseline budget projections (which incorporate the assumption that current law generally remains the same). It is also used to estimate the effects of proposed changes in policies that affect health insurance coverage.
HISIM2 incorporates new base data, including data from surveys and administrative data. It changes the way individuals and families are projected to choose among coverage options. And it changes the way firms are projected to take workers’ preferences into account when deciding whether to offer employment-based coverage.
CBO's analyses of the distribution of household income rely on the Census Bureau's Current Population Survey (CPS) for information about receipt of government transfers, particularly means-tested transfers. CPS respondents underreport their receipt of those transfers, and that underreporting has increased over the past few decades. This presentation shows how CBO adjusts for the underreporting of means-tested transfers in its distributional analyses.
HISIM2 is an updated version of the model CBO uses to generate estimates of health insurance coverage and premiums for people under age 65. The model is used along with other models to develop CBO’s baseline budget projections (which incorporate the assumption that current law generally remains the same). It is also used to estimate the effects of proposed changes in policies that affect health insurance coverage.
Presentation by Alice Burns and Jaeger Nelson, analysts in CBO’s Budget Analysis Division and Macroeconomic Analysis Division, to the National Tax Association.
CBO uses its microsimulation tax model to simulate the effects of tax rules for a representative sample of tax filers in each year of the budget window. The model informs much of CBO’s analysis of the individual income and payroll tax system.
To prepare its spring 2019 baseline budget projections, CBO is using new sources of data as inputs and has completely revamped the way it models consumers’ and employers’ behavior. To that end, it has developed HISIM2, a new version of the model CBO uses to generate estimates of health insurance coverage and premiums for the population under age 65. The model is used in conjunction with other models to develop baseline budget projections (which incorporate the assumption that current law generally remains the same). It is also used to estimate the effects of proposed changes in policies that affect health insurance coverage.
HISIM2 incorporates new base data, including data from surveys and administrative data. It changes the way individuals and families are projected to choose among coverage options. And it changes the way firms are projected to take workers’ preferences into account when deciding whether to offer employment-based coverage.
CBO's analyses of the distribution of household income rely on the Census Bureau's Current Population Survey (CPS) for information about receipt of government transfers, particularly means-tested transfers. CPS respondents underreport their receipt of those transfers, and that underreporting has increased over the past few decades. This presentation shows how CBO adjusts for the underreporting of means-tested transfers in its distributional analyses.
HISIM2 is an updated version of the model CBO uses to generate estimates of health insurance coverage and premiums for people under age 65. The model is used along with other models to develop CBO’s baseline budget projections (which incorporate the assumption that current law generally remains the same). It is also used to estimate the effects of proposed changes in policies that affect health insurance coverage.
Presentation by Alice Burns and Jaeger Nelson, analysts in CBO’s Budget Analysis Division and Macroeconomic Analysis Division, to the National Tax Association.
CBO uses its microsimulation tax model to simulate the effects of tax rules for a representative sample of tax filers in each year of the budget window. The model informs much of CBO’s analysis of the individual income and payroll tax system.
CBO and the Joint Committee on Taxation use HISIM2 to estimate the major sources of health insurance coverage and associated premiums for the U.S. population under age 65.
HISIM2 is used in conjunction with other models (for example, those for related taxes, Medicaid, and Medicare) to develop baseline insurance coverage projections and their associated budgetary costs. It is also used to estimate the effects of proposed changes in policies that affect health insurance coverage.
CBO uses HISIM2 to model firms’ decisions to offer health insurance as well as households’ decisions to enroll in health insurance. Like all of CBO’s models, HISIM2 is regularly updated. This slide deck describes the analytical methods used in HISIM2 to model firms’ decisions in CBO’s baseline budget projections as of March 6, 2020.
CBO’s new health insurance simulation model creates synthetic firms that mimic the real-world variations between firms to model employers’ decisions about whether to offer employment-based health insurance.
Presentation by Alexandra Minicozzi, a Unit Chief in CBO’s Health, Retirement, and Long-Term Analysis Division, at the 8th Annual Conference of the American Society of Health Economists.
Presentation by Chapin White, CBO's Deputy Director of Health Analysis, to the Leadership Fellowship Program at the National Hispanic Medical Association.
The Budget and Economic Outlook, a recurring publication of the Congressional Budget Office, provides budget and economic projections that incorporate the assumption that current laws governing federal spending and revenues generally remain in place. Those baseline projections cover the 10-year period used in the Congressional budget process. The report generally describes the differences between the current projections and previous ones; compares the economic forecast with those of other forecasters; and shows the budgetary impact of some alternative policy assumptions. This presentation describes the projections and provides some recent examples.
Presentation by Tamara Hayford, Chief of CBO’s Health Policy Studies Unit, at the Association for Public Policy Analysis & Management 2021 Annual Research Meeting.
CBO’s work follows processes specified in the Congressional Budget and Impoundment Control Act of 1974 (which established the agency) or developed by the agency in concert with the House and Senate Budget Committees and the Congressional leadership.
CBO is strictly nonpartisan; conducts objective, impartial analysis; and hires its employees solely on the basis of professional competence, without regard to political affiliation. The agency does not make policy recommendations, and each report and cost estimate summarizes the methodology underlying the analysis.
Presentation by Keith Hall, CBO Director, at the 10th Annual Meeting of the OECD Network of Parliamentary Budget Officials and Independent Fiscal Institutions.
Presentation by Adebayo Adedeji and Heidi Golding, analysts in CBO's National Security Division, at the Annual Conference of the Western Economic Association International.
The federal minimum wage is $7.25 per hour for most workers. CBO has examined how increasing the federal minimum wage to $10, $12, or $15 per hour by 2025 would affect employment and family income. Increasing the minimum wage would have two principal effects on low-wage workers. For most of them, earnings and family income would increase, which would lift some families out of poverty. But other low-wage workers would become jobless, and their family income would fall—in some cases, below the poverty threshold.
HISIM generates estimates of health insurance coverage and premiums for the U.S. population under age 65. CBO’s analysts use that model to develop baseline projections and to simulate the effects of proposed changes to policies involving health insurance coverage.
On June 19, two analysts will explain how HISIM is used to help estimate the cost of a proposal affecting health insurance coverage and how a new version of the model is being developed to enhance CBO’s analytic capabilities.
Presentation by Jessica Banthin, Deputy Assistant Director in CBO’s Health, Retirement, and Long-Term Analysis Division (HRLD), and Alexandra Minicozzi, Chief of HRLD’s Health Insurance Modeling Unit, at the Bipartisan Policy Center.
CBO analysts use the agency’s revised health insurance simulation model, HISIM2, to generate estimates of health insurance coverage and premiums for the population under age 65. The model is used in conjunction with other models to develop baseline budget projections (which incorporate the assumption that current law generally remains the same). It is also used to estimate the effects of proposed changes in policies that affect health insurance coverage. This presentation provides an overview of the model.
The federal budget is a measure of the overall scope and magnitude of federal activities that involve the spending or collection of money. The net costs of those activities are shown in the budget mostly on a cash basis, but some transactions are recorded by means of accrual accounting. This presentation discusses the advantages and disadvantages of cash and accrual measures when accounting for various federal insurance programs and federal retirement programs.
CBO’s health insurance simulation model (HISIM) generates estimates of health insurance coverage and premiums for the population under age 65. HISIM is used to help develop baseline projections (which incorporate the assumption that current law generally remains the same) and also to model proposed changes in policies that affect health insurance coverage.
Currently, CBO is developing and testing a new version of HISIM to respond to continued Congressional interest in understanding the effects of legislative proposals that significantly affect health insurance coverage. The new model will be used to help develop CBO’s spring 2019 baseline projections and subsequent cost estimates.
Presentation by Jessica Banthin, Deputy Assistant Director in CBO’s Health, Retirement, and Long-Term Analysis Division (HRLD), and Alexandra Minicozzi, Chief of HRLD’s Health Insurance Modeling Unit, to the American Academy of Actuaries.
The first version of the Health Insurance Simulation Model (HISIM) was developed by CBO in 2002 to model various proposals affecting health insurance coverage, including direct subsidies, changes to tax incentives, and insurance market reforms. HISIM has been expanded to accommodate additional proposals, including expansion of public programs, mandates for people to have insurance, and further insurance market reforms.
The model is updated regularly to incorporate new data, CBO’s most recent economic forecast, changes in law or regulations, and technical improvements. HISIM helps CBO prepare baseline budget projections, which are published two or three times a year and are the basis for estimating budgetary effects of proposals relative to current law.
CBO and the Joint Committee on Taxation use HISIM2 to estimate the major sources of health insurance coverage and associated premiums for the U.S. population under age 65.
HISIM2 is used in conjunction with other models (for example, those for related taxes, Medicaid, and Medicare) to develop baseline insurance coverage projections and their associated budgetary costs. It is also used to estimate the effects of proposed changes in policies that affect health insurance coverage.
CBO uses HISIM2 to model firms’ decisions to offer health insurance as well as households’ decisions to enroll in health insurance. Like all of CBO’s models, HISIM2 is regularly updated. This slide deck describes the analytical methods used in HISIM2 to model firms’ decisions in CBO’s baseline budget projections as of March 6, 2020.
CBO’s new health insurance simulation model creates synthetic firms that mimic the real-world variations between firms to model employers’ decisions about whether to offer employment-based health insurance.
Presentation by Alexandra Minicozzi, a Unit Chief in CBO’s Health, Retirement, and Long-Term Analysis Division, at the 8th Annual Conference of the American Society of Health Economists.
Presentation by Chapin White, CBO's Deputy Director of Health Analysis, to the Leadership Fellowship Program at the National Hispanic Medical Association.
The Budget and Economic Outlook, a recurring publication of the Congressional Budget Office, provides budget and economic projections that incorporate the assumption that current laws governing federal spending and revenues generally remain in place. Those baseline projections cover the 10-year period used in the Congressional budget process. The report generally describes the differences between the current projections and previous ones; compares the economic forecast with those of other forecasters; and shows the budgetary impact of some alternative policy assumptions. This presentation describes the projections and provides some recent examples.
Presentation by Tamara Hayford, Chief of CBO’s Health Policy Studies Unit, at the Association for Public Policy Analysis & Management 2021 Annual Research Meeting.
CBO’s work follows processes specified in the Congressional Budget and Impoundment Control Act of 1974 (which established the agency) or developed by the agency in concert with the House and Senate Budget Committees and the Congressional leadership.
CBO is strictly nonpartisan; conducts objective, impartial analysis; and hires its employees solely on the basis of professional competence, without regard to political affiliation. The agency does not make policy recommendations, and each report and cost estimate summarizes the methodology underlying the analysis.
Presentation by Keith Hall, CBO Director, at the 10th Annual Meeting of the OECD Network of Parliamentary Budget Officials and Independent Fiscal Institutions.
Presentation by Adebayo Adedeji and Heidi Golding, analysts in CBO's National Security Division, at the Annual Conference of the Western Economic Association International.
The federal minimum wage is $7.25 per hour for most workers. CBO has examined how increasing the federal minimum wage to $10, $12, or $15 per hour by 2025 would affect employment and family income. Increasing the minimum wage would have two principal effects on low-wage workers. For most of them, earnings and family income would increase, which would lift some families out of poverty. But other low-wage workers would become jobless, and their family income would fall—in some cases, below the poverty threshold.
HISIM generates estimates of health insurance coverage and premiums for the U.S. population under age 65. CBO’s analysts use that model to develop baseline projections and to simulate the effects of proposed changes to policies involving health insurance coverage.
On June 19, two analysts will explain how HISIM is used to help estimate the cost of a proposal affecting health insurance coverage and how a new version of the model is being developed to enhance CBO’s analytic capabilities.
Presentation by Jessica Banthin, Deputy Assistant Director in CBO’s Health, Retirement, and Long-Term Analysis Division (HRLD), and Alexandra Minicozzi, Chief of HRLD’s Health Insurance Modeling Unit, at the Bipartisan Policy Center.
CBO analysts use the agency’s revised health insurance simulation model, HISIM2, to generate estimates of health insurance coverage and premiums for the population under age 65. The model is used in conjunction with other models to develop baseline budget projections (which incorporate the assumption that current law generally remains the same). It is also used to estimate the effects of proposed changes in policies that affect health insurance coverage. This presentation provides an overview of the model.
The federal budget is a measure of the overall scope and magnitude of federal activities that involve the spending or collection of money. The net costs of those activities are shown in the budget mostly on a cash basis, but some transactions are recorded by means of accrual accounting. This presentation discusses the advantages and disadvantages of cash and accrual measures when accounting for various federal insurance programs and federal retirement programs.
CBO’s health insurance simulation model (HISIM) generates estimates of health insurance coverage and premiums for the population under age 65. HISIM is used to help develop baseline projections (which incorporate the assumption that current law generally remains the same) and also to model proposed changes in policies that affect health insurance coverage.
Currently, CBO is developing and testing a new version of HISIM to respond to continued Congressional interest in understanding the effects of legislative proposals that significantly affect health insurance coverage. The new model will be used to help develop CBO’s spring 2019 baseline projections and subsequent cost estimates.
Presentation by Jessica Banthin, Deputy Assistant Director in CBO’s Health, Retirement, and Long-Term Analysis Division (HRLD), and Alexandra Minicozzi, Chief of HRLD’s Health Insurance Modeling Unit, to the American Academy of Actuaries.
The first version of the Health Insurance Simulation Model (HISIM) was developed by CBO in 2002 to model various proposals affecting health insurance coverage, including direct subsidies, changes to tax incentives, and insurance market reforms. HISIM has been expanded to accommodate additional proposals, including expansion of public programs, mandates for people to have insurance, and further insurance market reforms.
The model is updated regularly to incorporate new data, CBO’s most recent economic forecast, changes in law or regulations, and technical improvements. HISIM helps CBO prepare baseline budget projections, which are published two or three times a year and are the basis for estimating budgetary effects of proposals relative to current law.
This presentation explains the process followed by CBO and the staff of the Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT) when estimating the costs of legislative proposals affecting health insurance coverage. An example is the agencies’ estimate of how repealing the individual mandate to have health insurance would affect federal deficits.
Presentation by Sarah Masi, an analyst in CBO’s Budget Analysis Division, at a Congressional Research Service seminar on CBO’s methods for developing cost estimates.
The federal government subsidizes health insurance for most Americans through a variety of programs and tax provisions. In 2017, net subsidies for people under age 65 will total $705 billion, CBO and the staff of the Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT) estimate.
This presentation provides an overview of CBO and JCT’s current baseline projections of health insurance coverage and how those projections have changed since March 2016, highlighting changes in Medicaid and CHIP enrollment and nongroup coverage.
Presentation by Jessica Banthin, Deputy Assistant Director in CBO’s Health, Retirement, and Long-Term Analysis Division, at a Congressional Research Service seminar on CBO’s methods for developing cost estimates.
Spending on federal health care programs is growing rapidly, driven by rising enrollment and rising health care spending per enrollee. This presentation describes CBO’s analyses related to health care, explains how the agency uses its health insurance simulation model, and provides examples of how CBO documents its work.
Presentation by Robert Sunshine, Senior Advisor in CBO’s Office of the Director, at the 10th Annual Meeting of the OECD Network of Parliamentary Budget Officials and Independent Fiscal Institutions.
The federal government subsidizes health insurance for most Americans through a variety of programs and tax provisions. In 2017, net subsidies for people under age 65 will total $705 billion, CBO and the staff of the Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT) estimate.
This presentation provides an overview of CBO and JCT’s current projections of health insurance coverage and how those projections have changed since March 2016, highlighting changes in Medicaid and CHIP enrollment and nongroup coverage.
Jessica Banthin, Deputy Assistant Director in CBO’s Health, Retirement, and Long-Term Analysis Division, will deliver this presentation on December 7, 2017, at the Inforum Outlook Conference at the University of Maryland.
CBO analysts use the agency’s revised health insurance simulation model, HISIM2, to generate estimates of health insurance coverage and premiums for the population under age 65. The model is used in conjunction with other models to develop baseline budget projections (which incorporate the assumption that current law generally remains the same). It is also used to estimate the effects of proposed changes in policies that affect health insurance coverage.
This presentation provides an overview of the current model’s underlying data, calibration estimates, code segments, and the results highlighted in CBO’s recent report Federal Subsidies for Health Insurance Coverage for People Under Age 65: 2019 to 2029.
Presentation by Lara Robillard, an analyst in CBO’s Budget Analysis Division, to the Leadership Fellowship Program at the National Hispanic Medical Association.
Presentation by Jared Jageler, David Adler, Noelia Duchovny, and Evan Herrnstadt, analysts in CBO’s Microeconomic Studies and Health Analysis Divisions, at the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists Summer Conference.
Presentation by Mark Hadley, CBO's Chief Operating Officer and General Counsel, at the 2nd NABO-OECD Annual Conference of Asian Parliamentary Budget Officials.
Presentation by Daria Pelech, an analyst in CBO’s Health Analysis Division, at the Center for Health Insurance Reform McCourt School of Public Policy, Georgetown University.
This slide deck highlights CBO’s key findings about the outlook for the economy as described in its new report, The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2024 to 2034.
Presentation by CBO analysts Rebecca Heller, Shannon Mok, and James Pearce, and Census Bureau research economist Jonathan Rothbaum at the American Economic Association Annual Meeting, Committee on Economic Statistics.
Presentation by Eric J. Labs, an analyst in CBO’s National Security Division, at the Bank of America 2024 Defense Outlook and Commercial Aerospace Forum.
Presentation by Elizabeth Ash, William Carrington, Rebecca Heller, and Grace Hwang of CBO’s Labor, Income Security, and Long-Term Analysis and Health Analysis divisions to the Children’s Health Group, American Academy of Pediatrics.
Presentation by Molly Dahl, Chief of CBO’s Long-Term Analysis Unit, at a meeting of the National Conference of State Legislatures’ Budget Working Group.
In the President’s 2024 budget request, total military compensation is $551 billion, including veterans' benefits. That amount represents an increase of 134 percent since 1999 after removing the effects of inflation.
This session provides a comprehensive overview of the latest updates to the Uniform Administrative Requirements, Cost Principles, and Audit Requirements for Federal Awards (commonly known as the Uniform Guidance) outlined in the 2 CFR 200.
With a focus on the 2024 revisions issued by the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), participants will gain insight into the key changes affecting federal grant recipients. The session will delve into critical regulatory updates, providing attendees with the knowledge and tools necessary to navigate and comply with the evolving landscape of federal grant management.
Learning Objectives:
- Understand the rationale behind the 2024 updates to the Uniform Guidance outlined in 2 CFR 200, and their implications for federal grant recipients.
- Identify the key changes and revisions introduced by the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) in the 2024 edition of 2 CFR 200.
- Gain proficiency in applying the updated regulations to ensure compliance with federal grant requirements and avoid potential audit findings.
- Develop strategies for effectively implementing the new guidelines within the grant management processes of their respective organizations, fostering efficiency and accountability in federal grant administration.
Jennifer Schaus and Associates hosts a complimentary webinar series on The FAR in 2024. Join the webinars on Wednesdays and Fridays at noon, eastern.
Recordings are on YouTube and the company website.
https://www.youtube.com/@jenniferschaus/videos
Many ways to support street children.pptxSERUDS INDIA
By raising awareness, providing support, advocating for change, and offering assistance to children in need, individuals can play a crucial role in improving the lives of street children and helping them realize their full potential
Donate Us
https://serudsindia.org/how-individuals-can-support-street-children-in-india/
#donatefororphan, #donateforhomelesschildren, #childeducation, #ngochildeducation, #donateforeducation, #donationforchildeducation, #sponsorforpoorchild, #sponsororphanage #sponsororphanchild, #donation, #education, #charity, #educationforchild, #seruds, #kurnool, #joyhome
Russian anarchist and anti-war movement in the third year of full-scale warAntti Rautiainen
Anarchist group ANA Regensburg hosted my online-presentation on 16th of May 2024, in which I discussed tactics of anti-war activism in Russia, and reasons why the anti-war movement has not been able to make an impact to change the course of events yet. Cases of anarchists repressed for anti-war activities are presented, as well as strategies of support for political prisoners, and modest successes in supporting their struggles.
Thumbnail picture is by MediaZona, you may read their report on anti-war arson attacks in Russia here: https://en.zona.media/article/2022/10/13/burn-map
Links:
Autonomous Action
http://Avtonom.org
Anarchist Black Cross Moscow
http://Avtonom.org/abc
Solidarity Zone
https://t.me/solidarity_zone
Memorial
https://memopzk.org/, https://t.me/pzk_memorial
OVD-Info
https://en.ovdinfo.org/antiwar-ovd-info-guide
RosUznik
https://rosuznik.org/
Uznik Online
http://uznikonline.tilda.ws/
Russian Reader
https://therussianreader.com/
ABC Irkutsk
https://abc38.noblogs.org/
Send mail to prisoners from abroad:
http://Prisonmail.online
YouTube: https://youtu.be/c5nSOdU48O8
Spotify: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/libertarianlifecoach/episodes/Russian-anarchist-and-anti-war-movement-in-the-third-year-of-full-scale-war-e2k8ai4
ZGB - The Role of Generative AI in Government transformation.pdfSaeed Al Dhaheri
This keynote was presented during the the 7th edition of the UAE Hackathon 2024. It highlights the role of AI and Generative AI in addressing government transformation to achieve zero government bureaucracy
How CBO Is Updating Its Health Insurance Simulation Model
1. Congressional Budget Office
Presentation to CBO’s Panel of Health Advisers
September 21, 2018
Jessica Banthin and Alexandra Minicozzi
Health, Retirement, and Long-Term Analysis Division
How CBO Is Updating Its Health
Insurance Simulation Model
2. 1
CBO
The Role of the Health
Insurance Simulation
Model (HISIM) at CBO
3. 2
CBO
HISIM generates estimates of health insurance coverage and premiums
for the population under age 65.
The model is used to help develop baseline projections (which
incorporate the assumption that current law generally remains the same)
and also to model proposed changes in policies that affect health
insurance coverage.
What Is HISIM Used For?
4. 3
CBO
How Does CBO Use HISIM to Help Estimate the
Cost of Proposals Affecting Health Insurance
Coverage?
Develop a
Modeling Strategy
Analyze the Proposal in
HISIM
Review HISIM’s Output
Analyze the Proposal’s
Effects on Medicaid
Enrollment and Costs
Analyze the Proposal in the
Joint Committee on
Taxation’s Tax Models
Write and Review
the Formal Estimate
5. 4
CBO
CBO is creating a new version of HISIM to respond to continued
Congressional interest in understanding the effects of legislative
proposals that significantly affect health insurance coverage. The new
model:
Incorporates new data into early stages of the modeling process,
Better accounts for consumers’ selection of types of insurance plans,
and
Allows easier simulation of new insurance products.
The new model is in a development-and-testing phase.
Why Update HISIM?
6. 5
CBO
The new model will be used to help develop CBO’s spring 2019 baseline
projections and subsequent cost estimates.
CBO is incorporating feedback obtained during presentations like this
one while the new model is in the development-and-testing phase.
The current model will be maintained to serve as a point of reference in
2019.
When Will the New Model Replace the Current
One?
7. 6
CBO
Between now and the publication of the spring 2019 baseline, CBO will
examine how the current model’s estimates of effects on health
insurance coverage differ from the new one’s. At this point, it is too early
to tell.
Underlying relationships among individuals, families, employment,
income, and insurance coverage are different in the new model because
of new data, so the new model may yield different coverage decisions
and budgetary costs—just as the technical improvements that CBO
makes to its models every year have yielded differences.
What remains the same, even when CBO updates its models, is its
reliance on evidence. The new model, like the current one, will be
aligned with the latest available evidence about consumers’ and
employers’ responses to health insurance subsidies.
How Will the New Model Change CBO’s Cost
Estimates?
8. 7
CBO
CBO has established a technical review panel to review the new model.
The agency is also making presentations to various groups to solicit
feedback.
Furthermore, CBO’s annual report on federal subsidies for health
insurance will include a discussion of differences between the
spring 2019 baseline and the previous one.
And the spring 2019 baseline will be accompanied by:
An updated slide deck describing the new model,
Additional documentation describing the sources and preparation of
input data, and
Modules of computer code underlying the model’s simulations of
decisions about insurance choices.
How Will CBO Be Transparent About the New
Model?
10. 9
CBO
The base data for the new model are from the Current Population Survey
(CPS) and were collected in years after the implementation of the
Affordable Care Act.
Those data have several advantages:
They constitute a large, representative data set for the U.S.
noninstitutionalized population;
They represent reliable, timely information about income, employment
status, employers’ offers of health insurance, health status, and
insurance coverage; and
They are representative of states’ populations.
The Source of the Data
11. 10
CBO
CBO edited the following variables to align them with information from
better sources:
Firm size,
Self-employment income, and
Whether employers offered insurance.
Also, CBO imputed additional variables:
Medicaid eligibility,
Characteristics of employers’ insurance offers (the type of plan offered
and the employers’ contribution),
Marginal tax rates, and
The health spending distribution for each individual.
Adjustments to the Data
12. 11
CBO
Because the new model uses an expected utility approach, it requires an
estimate of each individual’s expected health spending.
A single expected spending amount would be sufficient for a simple
model, but CBO chose to impute a discrete probability distribution of
potential health spending to each individual. Two advantages of that
approach are that:
The variance in health spending for a given insurance choice directly
affects the expected utility resulting from that choice, and
Out-of-pocket costs can be calculated to compare expected utility
under plans with different cost-sharing attributes.
In this approach, an individual’s health spending distribution is defined
among 16 discrete health spending “states,” which are defined by dollar-
amount ranges ($0, $1–$250, $251–$500, …, $20,001–$25,000,
>$25,000) in 2015.
Individual Health Spending Distribution
13. 12
CBO
CBO constructs synthetic firms to help model employers’ decisions.
A synthetic firm is constructed for each worker in the data on the basis of
that worker’s profile. It consists of a set of randomly drawn coworkers
matching a distribution of age and earnings that is based on that worker’s
profile. For example, a firm could consist of mostly young, low-earning
employees, or it could have employees with a mix of ages and earnings.
In the new model, newly accessible administrative tax data (from Form
W-2s linked to Form 941s) provide more accurate information about the
earnings and ages of workers within actual firms.
Thus, in the new model, synthetic firms’ decisions will vary for workers
with similar age and earnings profiles, reflecting heterogeneity in the age-
earnings distribution among actual firms.
Synthetic Firms
14. 13
CBO
Previous Method
New Method
Variation in Age and Earnings Among and Within
Synthetic Firms
20 30 40 50 60
Distribution of Coworkers’ Age
Firm for
Worker 1
Firm for
Worker 2
Firm for
Worker 3
20 30 40 50 60
Distribution of Coworkers’ Age
$0 $25,000 $50,000 $75,000 $100,000 $125,000
Distribution of Coworkers’ Earnings
$0 $25,000 $50,000 $75,000 $100,000 $125,000
Distribution of Coworkers’ Earnings
15. 14
CBO
In the new model, premiums are endogenously constructed within the model by
means of individual-level health spending distributions, plan characteristics, and
load factors.
Premiums for employment-based coverage are constructed to closely match
average premiums by plan and coverage type in the Medical Expenditure Panel
Survey–Insurance Component (MEPS–IC).
Premiums for marketplace coverage are aligned to match actual national average
premiums.
Because premiums within the model are constructed on the basis of the
individuals who are enrolled in each type of coverage, the model can better
project changes in premiums that would result from proposed policies.
Constructing Premiums Within the Model
17. 16
CBO
In the new model, health insurance units (HIUs) make decisions about
health insurance coverage on the basis of the expected utility of all
options available to them.
The utility of each option is a function of the HIU’s total income minus
health care spending, including premiums, out-of-pocket spending,
subsidies, taxes, and mandate penalties. (Out-of-pocket spending is
determined by the health status of each member of the HIU and by plan
parameters.)
Utility is assumed to decrease with risk as measured by variance in out-
of-pocket spending. Many utility-function parameters are estimated under
the constraint that the predictions from the model must be close to the
distribution of coverage in the base year of data. Other parameters are
set on the basis of CBO’s assessment of the research literature.
Overview of Health Insurance Units’ Behavior
18. 17
CBO
HIUs select the type of insurance for each person in the unit from
choices such as these:
Employment-based coverage, single: preferred provider organization
(PPO), health maintenance organization (HMO), or high-deductible
health plan (HDHP)
Employment-based coverage, nonsingle: PPO, HMO, or HDHP
Nongroup in the marketplaces: bronze, silver, or gold plan
Nongroup outside the marketplaces: bronze, silver, or gold plan
Medicaid
Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP)
Medicare
Uninsured
Overview of HIUs’ Behavior (Continued)
19. 18
CBO
The choice set is determined by the characteristics of an HIU and by
CBO’s decision to keep the model relatively simple.
Single-person and multiperson HIUs have different choice sets.
The choice set of an HIU is restricted by the eligibility of its members
for public insurance and subsidized private insurance.
The choice sets of the model are restricted to maintain as much
realism as possible while simplifying the model to a manageable level,
limiting the computational time it takes to simulate coverage effects of
proposed policies.
Choice Sets
20. 19
CBO
The choice set for single-person HIUs consists of options that are
categorized into one of five “nests.”
Options within the same nest are considered closer substitutes than
options in different nests.
Choice Set: Single-Person HIUs
Nest Options
Uninsured Uninsured
Nongroup outside the marketplaces Bronze, silver, gold
Nongroup in the marketplaces Bronze, silver, gold
Employment-based coverage Employment-based coverage
Public insurance Medicaid, CHIP, Medicare
21. 20
CBO
Choice Set: Multiperson HIUs
Multiperson HIUs have a larger choice set than single-person HIUs do
because different members of an HIU can have different types of
coverage.
Each nest represents a combination of different types of coverage that
CBO allows an HIU to enroll its members in.
Under each option within a nest, members of the HIU are sorted into
different types of coverage on the basis of their eligibility.
22. 21
CBO
There are eight nests in the choice set for multiperson HIUs:
Uninsured
Nongroup outside the marketplaces, public insurance, and uninsured
Nongroup in the marketplaces, public insurance, and uninsured
Employment-based coverage
Employment-based coverage and public insurance
Employment-based coverage, public insurance, and uninsured
Employment-based coverage and uninsured
Public insurance
Choice Set: Multiperson HIUs (Continued)
23. 22
CBO
Data Used to Calibrate Utility-Function
Parameters
Coverage Source
Employment-
Based
Medical Expenditure Panel Survey
(MEPS–IC and MEPS–Household Component)
Nongroup Robert Wood Johnson Foundation HIX Compare
database, state-level data, Centers for Medicare
and Medicaid Services (CMS), and National
Association of Insurance Commissioners
None (Uninsured) National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) and
MEPS–Household Component
Medicaid and CHIP CBO’s estimates on the basis of CMS Form 64
and Medicaid Statistical Information Statistics
(MSIS)
25. 24
CBO
In the new model, firms make decisions about whether to offer coverage
and what type of plan to offer on the basis of their expected utility from
each option.
Firms may only offer one type of plan: an HDHP, HMO, or PPO.
Firms make decisions before HIUs do, so their choices are deterministic.
The assumption that firms make decisions before HIUs makes the HIU
choice set smaller and greatly decreases computational time.
The utility of each option is a function of a firm’s expected premium
contributions, tax liabilities, and penalty payments under the option and
its employees’ willingness to pay for it.
Parameters are calibrated on the basis of CBO’s assessment of the
research literature and simulations of firms’ responses to changes in
premiums.
Overview of Firms’ Behavior
26. 25
CBO
CBO constructs a synthetic firm for each employee in the model.
Each firm consists of a set of coworkers sampled on the basis of their
traits and the traits of the worker for whom the firm is being constructed.
The traits of a firm’s employees influence the firm’s expected utility from
each of its options.
CBO imputes the premiums and cost-sharing characteristics for each
type of plan that a firm can offer and the share of premiums that a firm
would pay for single and nonsingle plans of any type.
Firms’ Characteristics
27. 26
CBO
For the base year of the model, CBO imputes firms’ decisions.
A firm’s decision about offering coverage is informed largely by CPS
data and is calibrated to MEPS–IC estimates of offer rates.
If a firm offers coverage, the type of plan that it offers is imputed on the
basis of a preliminary estimate of its workers’ valuation of the plan and
MEPS–IC data on the share of firms offering each type of plan.
For subsequent years, firms make decisions on the basis of their
expected utility.
If the calculated probability of a firm’s offering coverage is greater than
or equal to one-half, the firm offers coverage.
Firms then offer the type of plan that maximizes their expected utility.
Firms’ Decisions
28. 27
CBO
Its base data are from the CPS.
Those base data are edited, and several key variables are imputed.
Synthetic firms are constructed to match the distribution of workers’ ages
and earnings within and among firms.
Simulated coverage behavior depends on how much utility is derived
from each coverage option.
Many parameters in the utility functions are estimated within the model;
some are set on the basis of CBO’s assessment of the research
literature.
Employers select the coverage option that maximizes workers’ valuation
of an offer net of the expected cost to the employer.
Summary of the New Model’s Specifications
29. 28
CBO
How CBO Defines and Estimates Health Insurance Coverage for People
Under Age 65 (May 2018), www.cbo.gov/publication/53822.
Federal Subsidies for Health Insurance Coverage for People Under Age
65: 2018 to 2028 (May 2018), www.cbo.gov/publication/53826.
How CBO and JCT Analyze Major Proposals That Would Affect Health
Insurance Coverage (February 2018), www.cbo.gov/publication/53571.
“The Health Insurance Simulation Model Used in Preparing CBO’s 2018
Baseline” (February 2018), www.cbo.gov/publication/53592.
Related Publications by CBO