The document is an agenda for a presentation on April 22, 2010 by Anthony Carnevale on post-secondary education and national talent development. It will discuss trends in post-secondary spending, the relationship between education levels and lifetime earnings, and projections for post-secondary job growth through 2018.

1. HELP WANTED:
Post-secondary education required
Presentation by Anthony Carnevale
National Talent Dividend Meeting
Co-hosted by FutureWorks and CEOs for Cities
Date:
Date: April 22, 2010

2. Summary
•Formal post-secondary programs are 35% of total post-secondary spending;
•Wage premium for post-secondary persists despite increasing supply of post-secondary
graduates;
•Lifetime earnings demonstrate clear case for post-secondary attainment;
•Occupational and industry choice also influence earnings;
•Recession ends. Job return is painfully slow. Full employment in 2015;
•Post-secondary demand increases with time and is 63% of all jobs in 2018;
•101 million post-secondary jobs in the economy in 2018;
•30 million post-secondary job vacancies between 2008 and 2018;
•Metropolitan area learning exchange required to better connect education with job demand.

3. Formal postsecondary programs make up 35% of the $772
billion postsecondary education and training system and governs
access to the rest of the system
Source: Authors’ calculations using data from: Integrated Post-secondary Education Data System (IPEDS), Department of
Labor Employment and Training Administration (DOLETA), American Association of Community Colleges (AACC), Office of
Vocational and Adult Education (OVAE), Survey of Employer Provided Training (DOL), and Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

4. Holders of Bachelor’s degree and above have enjoyed the
highest returns to education relative to high school graduates
Source: March CPS data, various years

5. Despite dramatic increases in post-secondary graduates, wage
advantages for postsecondary educated workers continues to
rise for 3 decades and is still substantial, even with latest dip
post-
Wage advantages of workers who hold post- post-
Ratio of post-secondary graduates to high
secondary degrees over high school school graduates
graduates
Source: Georgetown Center on Education and the Workforce Analysis of March
CPS data, various years

6. The Returns to Postsecondary Education Far Exceeds the Costs
Estimated Average Lifetime Earnings by Educational Level
Source: Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce analysis of March CPS data,
2008

7. Earnings are not just a function of post-secondary attainment.
Occupational preparation and industry also influences earnings
What we knowpotential
about Career Colleges
Source: National Education Longitudinal Study 2004

8. Employment growth is set to resume in 2011, but the economy
will not reach full employment until 2015
Source: Center on Education and the Workforce forecasts of education demand to
2018. Non-farm payroll employment plus self-employed).

9. 63% of all employment will require some college
or higher by 2018
Source: Analysis of March CPS data, various years,
Center on Education and the Workforce forecasts of education demand to 2018.

10. In 2018 64% of jobs will go to workers with at least some
postsecondary education
Source: Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce, forecast of education demand
2008 -2018.

11. Jobs with at least some college represent 64% of job openings
between 2008 and 2018.
Source: Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce, forecast of education demand
2008 -2018.

12. Learning exchange to align education and jobs
Job Openings Career
Pathways
Education and Training
Curricula

13. Demand for what?
New and replacement SC and AA jobs by occupation
Some College Associate Degree
Management occupations 14% 10%
Business operations specialists 15% 10%
Financial specialists 10% 9%
Computer and mathematical science occupations 11% 10%
Architects and technicians 3% 6%
Engineers and technicians 15% 26%
Life and physical scientists 1% 0%
Social scientists and technicians 6% 6%
Community and social services occupations 11% 9%
Legal occupations 10% 11%
Education, training, and library occupations 8% 7%
Arts, design, entertainment, sports, and media occupations 12% 11%
Healthcare practitioners and technical occupations 7% 25%
Healthcare support occupations 27% 21%
Protective service occupations 29% 17%
Food preparation and serving related occupations 18% 9%
Building and grounds cleaning and maintenance occupations 12% 5%
Personal care and service occupations 21% 16%
Sales and related occupations 20% 11%
Office and administrative support occupations 28% 15%
Farming, fishing, and forestry occupations 3% 3%
Construction and extraction occupations 13% 9%
Installation, maintenance, and repair occupations 19% 21%
Production occupations 18% 11%
Transportation and material moving occupations 19% 7%
Source: Center on Education and the Workforce forecasts of education demand to 2018.

14. Demand for what?
New and replacement certificate jobs by occupation
Post-Secondary
Certificates (%)
Bus and truck mechanics and diesel engine specialists 80%
Commercial divers 79%
Ship engineers 68%
Mobile heavy equipment mechanics, except engines 66%
Motorboat mechanics 64%
Electronic home entertainment equipment installers and repairers 62%
Patternmakers, metal and plastic 58%
Electronic equipment installers and repairers, motor vehicles 57%
Aircraft mechanics and service technicians 55%
Tool and die makers 54%
Cement masons and concrete finishers 53%
Telecommunications equipment installers and repairers, except line installers 51%
Milling and planing machine setters, operators, and tenders, metal and plastic 50%
Crane and tower operators 49%
Automotive service technicians and mechanics 48%
Operating engineers and other construction equipment operators 48%
Electricians 48%
Motorboat operators 47%
Helpers, pipelayers, plumbers, pipefitters, and steamfitters 46%
Patternmakers, wood 46%
Helpers--Installation, maintenance, and repair workers 45%
Carpenters 45%
Electrical and electronics installers and repairers, transportation equipment 44%
Musical instrument repairers and tuners 43%
Medical equipment repairers 43%
Source: Center on Education and the Workforce forecasts of education demand to 2018.