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Magellan Strategies Montana US Senate Survey Release April 10, 2014

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Magellan Strategies survey of 2,490 likely Montana general election voters. The survey includes a voter mood question, US Senate ballot test of Steve Daines, John Walsh, and Roger Roots, and a Congressional generic ballot test.

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Magellan Strategies Montana US Senate Survey Release April 10, 2014

  1. 1. ! FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE APRIL 10th , 2014 CONTACT: DAVID FLAHERTY 303-861-8585 STEVE DAINES LEADS JOHN WALSH BY 13 POINTS IN MT SENATE RACE: DAINES 49%, WALSH 36%, ROOTS 4%, OTHER 5% UNDECIDED 6% CONG. GENERIC BALLOT: REPUBLICAN 50%, DEMOCRAT 37%, OTHER 5% Louisville, CO – Among likely 2014 general election voters in Montana, Republican Congressman Steve Daines leads newly appointed Democrat Senator John Walsh by 13 points, 49% to 36%. These results are based on a 2,490n automated voice recorded survey of likely 2014 general election voters fielded April 1st and 2nd . The image ratings of both candidates are similar, with 53% of all respondents having a favorable opinion of Steve Daines, 33% having an unfavorable opinion of him and 10% having no opinion of him. John Walsh’s image rating stands at 47% favorable, 29% unfavorable and 17% of respondents do not have an opinion of him. When reviewing the results by major voting subgroup, we find Steve Daines leading among men by 18 points, 52% to 34%, and by 9 points, 46% to 37% among women. Among self-identified independents, Steve Daines leads by 15 points, 43% to 28%. “If the election for the United States Senate were being held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were John Walsh, Democrat, Steve Daines Republican, Roger Roots, Libertarian, or some other candidate?” Results by Gender, Marital Status and Party Identification* All All Men Mar. Men Sing. Men All Wom Mar. Wom Sing. Wom Dems Reps Ind 65+ Daines Net +13 +18 +21 +9 +9 +13 -4 -72 +75 +15 +8 Total Daines 49% 52% 54% 46% 46% 49% 36% 10% 84% 43% 47% Def Daines 37% 41% 43% 36% 33% 36% 25% 4% 68% 31% 38% Prob Daines 12% 11% 11% 10% 13% 13% 11% 6% 16% 12% 9% Total Walsh 36% 34% 33% 37% 37% 36% 40% 82% 9% 28% 39% Def Walsh 27% 28% 27% 30% 27% 27% 28% 66% 7% 20% 30% Prob Walsh 9% 6% 6% 7% 10% 9% 12% 16% 2% 8% 9% Total Roots 4% 6% 6% 9% 3% 2% 5% 1% 1% 10% 2% Other Can. 5% 4% 4% 4% 5% 5% 5% 3% 2% 8% 5% Undec/No Op. 6% 4% 3% 4% 10% 8% 14% 4% 4% 11% 7% *Some numbers shown were rounded to the nearest whole number.
  2. 2. Magellan Strategies Montana 2014 US Senate General Election Survey Release April 10, 2014, 2,490n MoE +/- 1.96% Magellan Strategies | 1685 Boxelder Street, Suite 300 | Louisville, CO 80027 MagellanStrategies.com | 303-861-8585 Voter Mood The voter mood about the direction of the country among Montana voters mirrors many national surveys, with only 30% thinking the country is headed in the right direction and 64% feeling that things are off on the wrong track. Among major voter subgroups, only among self-identified Democrats do a majority of 66% think things in the country are headed in the right direction. Among independent voters, 68% feel things in the country are off on the wrong track, as do 90% of Republican voters. Congressional Generic Ballot Looking at the results of the Congressional generic ballot test, the generic Republican candidate leads the Democrat candidate by 13 points, 50% to 37%. Among male voters the Republican candidate leads by 18 points, 52% to 34%. Among female voters the Democrat candidate trails the Republican candidate by 7 points, 40% to 47% respectively. These numbers should be alarming to Democrat candidates because women, and single women in particular, are a significant part of the Democratic base. Among the all important independent voter subgroup, we find the Republican candidate leading the Democrat candidate by 12 points, 42% to 30%. “If the election for Congress were being held today, would you vote for the Democrat candidate or the Republican candidate?” Results by Gender, Marital Status and Party Identification* All All Men Mar. Men Sing. Men All Wom Mar. Wom Sing. Wom Dem Rep Ind 65+ Rep Net +13 +18 +22 +7 +7 +12 -7 -78 +84 +12 +6 Rep. 50% 52% 54% 47% 47% 51% 36% 8% 90% 42% 48% Dem. 37% 34% 32% 40% 40% 39% 43% 86% 6% 30% 42% Other 5% 6% 6% 7% 5% 4% 7% 1% 1% 13% 5% Undec/DK 8% 8% 8% 6% 8% 6% 14% 5% 3% 15% 5% *Some numbers shown were rounded to the nearest whole number. Summary Although it is very early in the 2014 campaign cycle, Steve Daines is starting out with a 13 point lead over John Walsh and is in a good position among key voter subgroups. In Montana, the environment is far from ideal for a national Democrat candidate, and as John Walsh begins introducing himself and making his case to voters, we will see if he is able to gain traction later this year. The survey topline and crosstab results are included in this document. This full crosstabs and release can be downloaded from the Magellan Strategies Slideshare page at www.Slideshare.net or http://ow.ly/vEiMf .
  3. 3. Magellan Strategies Montana 2014 US Senate General Election Survey Release April 10, 2014, 2,490n MoE +/- 1.96% Magellan Strategies | 1685 Boxelder Street, Suite 300 | Louisville, CO 80027 MagellanStrategies.com | 303-861-8585 Survey Methodology The results were based on a statewide automated voice recorded interview survey of 2,490 likely 2014 Montana general election voters. The interviews were conducted on April 1st and 2nd of 2014. The individuals interviewed for the survey were selected from a Montana voter file and were selected proportionate to the state’s likely non-Presidential voting population in accordance with a probability sample design that gives all voters an equal chance to be included. The results were slightly weighted to reflect past gender and age demographics of the non- Presidential voting population. The survey’s margin of error is +/- 1.96% at the 95 percent confidence interval. Any questions regarding this survey should be directed to David Flaherty of Magellan Strategies at dflaherty@magellanstrategies.com or 303-861-8585. Survey Commissioned By: The individuals that commissioned this survey wish to remain anonymous. About Magellan Strategies Magellan Strategies is a full-service survey research firm offering quantitative, qualitative, and predictive data analytic services to Republican candidates and conservative organizations across the country. Any questions regarding this survey research should be directed to David Flaherty at 303-861-8585 or dflaherty@magellanstrategies.com.
  4. 4. Montana US Senate 2014 Survey Topline Results Magellan Strategies are pleased to present the topline results for a 2,490n automated voice recorded survey of likely general election voters in the state of Montana. The interviews were conducted April 1st and 2nd , 2014. This survey has a margin of error of +/- 1.96% at the 95 percent confidence interval. This survey was weighted based upon past general election demographics. T1. Are you registered to vote? Yes........................................................................100% T2. How likely are you to vote in the November general election for the United States Senate? Extremely likely.......................................................93% Very likely.................................................................5% Somewhat likely........................................................2% T3. Generally speaking, do you think things in the country are headed in the right direction or do you feel that things are off on the wrong track? Right direction ........................................................30% Wrong track............................................................64% Unsure or no opinion................................................6% T4. If the election for Congress were being held today would you vote for the Democrat candidate or the Republican candidate? Republican candidate .............................................50% Democrat candidate................................................37% Some other candidate ...............................................5% Undecided................................................................7% No opinion ...............................................................1%
  5. 5. Magellan ID#: MTSEN-040114 Montana US Senate General Election Survey Topline Results Field Dates: 4/1/14 – 4/2/14, MoE +/- 1.96%, 2,490n Magellan Strategies | 1685 Boxelder St. Suite 300 | Louisville, CO 80027 www.MagellanStrategies.com | (303) 861-8585 2 Now I’m going to read to you the names of some people involved in politics. After hearing the name please tell me if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of that person. If you don’t know the name of the person or organization, there is an option for that as well. Let’s get started… T5. The first name is John Walsh Total Favorable .......................................................47% Total Unfavorable ...................................................29% No opinion of him ..................................................17% Very favorable.........................................................24% Somewhat favorable................................................23% Very unfavorable.....................................................13% Somewhat unfavorable............................................16% Never heard of..........................................................7% Unsure......................................................................0% T6. The next person is Steve Daines. Total Favorable .......................................................53% Total Unfavorable ...................................................33% No opinion of him ..................................................10% Very favorable.........................................................34% Somewhat favorable................................................19% Very unfavorable.....................................................19% Somewhat unfavorable............................................14% Never heard of..........................................................3% Unsure......................................................................1%
  6. 6. Magellan ID#: MTSEN-040114 Montana US Senate General Election Survey Topline Results Field Dates: 4/1/14 – 4/2/14, MoE +/- 1.96%, 2,490n Magellan Strategies | 1685 Boxelder St. Suite 300 | Louisville, CO 80027 www.MagellanStrategies.com | (303) 861-8585 3 T7. If the election for the United States Senate were being held today for whom would you vote if the candidates were John Walsh, Democrat, Steve Daines, Republican, Roger Roots, Libertarian or some other candidate? Steve Daines ...........................................................49% John Walsh .............................................................36% Roger Roots...............................................................4% Some other candidate ...............................................5% Undecided................................................................6% Definitely Steve Daines...........................................37% Probably Steve Daines ............................................12% Definitely John Walsh .............................................28% Probably John Walsh.................................................8% T8. Do you consider yourself to be very conservative, conservative, moderate or liberal when it comes to fiscal issues like taxes and government spending? Very conservative....................................................31% Conservative ...........................................................30% Moderate ................................................................31% Liberal.......................................................................7% Unsure or no opinion................................................1% T9. Do you consider yourself to be very conservative, conservative, moderate or liberal when it comes to social issues like abortion and gay marriage? Very conservative....................................................31% Conservative ...........................................................19% Moderate ................................................................25% Liberal.....................................................................23% Unsure or no opinion................................................2%
  7. 7. Magellan ID#: MTSEN-040114 Montana US Senate General Election Survey Topline Results Field Dates: 4/1/14 – 4/2/14, MoE +/- 1.96%, 2,490n Magellan Strategies | 1685 Boxelder St. Suite 300 | Louisville, CO 80027 www.MagellanStrategies.com | (303) 861-8585 4 T10. Generally speaking, do you think of yourself as a Republican, a Democrat or something else? Total Republican.....................................................35% Total Democrat.......................................................27% Something else........................................................38% Strong Republican...................................................24% Not so strong Republican........................................11% Strong Democrat.....................................................18% Not so strong Democrat ............................................9% T11. For statistical purposes, are you a man or a woman? Female....................................................................52% Male .......................................................................48% T12. Which of the following age groups applies to you? 18-29......................................................................10% 30-44......................................................................20% 45-54......................................................................17% 55-64......................................................................23% 65+.........................................................................30% Unsure or no opinion................................................0% T13. What is your marital status? Married...................................................................72% Widowed..................................................................9% Separated..................................................................1% Divorced...................................................................7% Single and have never been married .........................8% Unmarried and living with a partner .........................2% Unsure or no opinion................................................1% Survey Methodology The results were based on a statewide automated voice recorded survey of 2,490 likely 2014 Montana general election voters. The interviews were conducted on April 1st and 2nd of 2014. The individuals interviewed for the survey were selected from a Montana voter file and were selected proportionate to the state’s likely non-Presidential voting population in accordance with a probability sample design that gives all voters an equal chance to be included. The results were slightly weighted to reflect past gender and age
  8. 8. Magellan ID#: MTSEN-040114 Montana US Senate General Election Survey Topline Results Field Dates: 4/1/14 – 4/2/14, MoE +/- 1.96%, 2,490n Magellan Strategies | 1685 Boxelder St. Suite 300 | Louisville, CO 80027 www.MagellanStrategies.com | (303) 861-8585 5 demographics of the non-Presidential voting population. The survey’s margin of error is +/- 1.96% at the 95 percent confidence interval. Any questions regarding this survey should be directed to David Flaherty of Magellan Strategies at dflaherty@magellanstrategies.com or 303-861-8585.
  9. 9. MontanaUSSenateGeneralElectionSurvey,April1st-2nd,2014,2,490N,1.96%MoE,WeightedResults,MagellanStrategies,1685BoxelderSt.Suite300,Louisville,CO80027,303-861-8585 Table1-1 T1.Areyouregisteredtovote? GENDER~MARITALAGEREPUBLICANSDEMOCRATSINDEPENDENTS -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL --------- MEN TOT --------- MARR MEN -------- SING MEN --------- WOM TOT --------- MARR WOM -------- SING WOM --------- 18-29 --------- 30-44 -------- 45-54 --------- 55-64 --------- 65 PLUS -------- REP TOT --------- REP MEN -------- REP WOM --------- DEM TOT --------- DEM MEN -------- DEM WOM --------- IND TOT --------- IND MEN -------- IND WOM --------- TOTAL2490 100.0 1195 100.0 915 100.0 267 100.0 1295 100.0 871 100.0 396 100.0 249 100.0 498 100.0 423 100.0 573 100.0 735 100.0 871 100.0 429 100.0 442 100.0 672 100.0 235 100.0 438 100.0 946 100.0 531 100.0 415 100.0 YES2490 100.0 1195 100.0 915 100.0 267 100.0 1295 100.0 871 100.0 396 100.0 249 100.0 498 100.0 423 100.0 573 100.0 735 100.0 871 100.0 429 100.0 442 100.0 672 100.0 235 100.0 438 100.0 946 100.0 531 100.0 415 100.0
  10. 10. MontanaUSSenateGeneralElectionSurvey,April1st-2nd,2014,2,490N,1.96%MoE,WeightedResults,MagellanStrategies,1685BoxelderSt.Suite300,Louisville,CO80027,303-861-8585 Table1-2 T1.Areyouregisteredtovote? FISCALIDEOLOGYSOCIALIDEOLOGYVOTERMOODGENERICCONGRESSWALSHIMG ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL --------- VERY CONS --------- CONS ERVE -------- MODE RATE --------- LIB ERAL --------- VERY CONS -------- CONS ERVE --------- MODE RATE --------- LIB ERAL -------- RGHT DIR --------- WRNG TRCK --------- DEM CAND -------- REP CAND --------- OTHR CAND -------- FAV TOT --------- VERY FAV --------- SMWT FAV -------- UNFV TOT --------- VERY UNFV --------- SMWT UNFV -------- NO OPIN --------- TOTAL2490 100.0 758 100.0 744 100.0 772 100.0 172 100.0 768 100.0 477 100.0 620 100.0 581 100.0 738 100.0 1604 100.0 918 100.0 1237 100.0 136 100.0 1160 100.0 589 100.0 572 100.0 713 100.0 328 100.0 386 100.0 418 100.0 YES2490 100.0 758 100.0 744 100.0 772 100.0 172 100.0 768 100.0 477 100.0 620 100.0 581 100.0 738 100.0 1604 100.0 918 100.0 1237 100.0 136 100.0 1160 100.0 589 100.0 572 100.0 713 100.0 328 100.0 386 100.0 418 100.0
  11. 11. MontanaUSSenateGeneralElectionSurvey,April1st-2nd,2014,2,490N,1.96%MoE,WeightedResults,MagellanStrategies,1685BoxelderSt.Suite300,Louisville,CO80027,303-861-8585 Table1-3 T1.Areyouregisteredtovote? DAINESIMGUSSENATEBALLOT ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL --------- FAV TOT --------- VERY FAV -------- SMWT FAV --------- UNFV TOT --------- VERY UNFV -------- SMWT UNFV --------- NO OPIN --------- WLSH TOT -------- DEF WLSH --------- PROB WLSH --------- DAIN TOT -------- DEF DAIN --------- PROB DAIN -------- ROGR ROOT --------- SOME OTHR --------- UNDE CIDE -------- TOTAL2490 100.0 1327 100.0 860 100.0 467 100.0 818 100.0 473 100.0 345 100.0 258 100.0 886 100.0 682 100.0 204 100.0 1207 100.0 920 100.0 288 100.0 108 100.0 111 100.0 163 100.0 YES2490 100.0 1327 100.0 860 100.0 467 100.0 818 100.0 473 100.0 345 100.0 258 100.0 886 100.0 682 100.0 204 100.0 1207 100.0 920 100.0 288 100.0 108 100.0 111 100.0 163 100.0
  12. 12. MontanaUSSenateGeneralElectionSurvey,April1st-2nd,2014,2,490N,1.96%MoE,WeightedResults,MagellanStrategies,1685BoxelderSt.Suite300,Louisville,CO80027,303-861-8585 Table2-1 T2.HowlikelyareyoutovoteintheNovembergeneralelectionfortheUnitedStatesSenate? GENDER~MARITALAGEREPUBLICANSDEMOCRATSINDEPENDENTS -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL --------- MEN TOT --------- MARR MEN -------- SING MEN --------- WOM TOT --------- MARR WOM -------- SING WOM --------- 18-29 --------- 30-44 -------- 45-54 --------- 55-64 --------- 65 PLUS -------- REP TOT --------- REP MEN -------- REP WOM --------- DEM TOT --------- DEM MEN -------- DEM WOM --------- IND TOT --------- IND MEN -------- IND WOM --------- TOTAL2490 100.0 1195 100.0 915 100.0 267 100.0 1295 100.0 871 100.0 396 100.0 249 100.0 498 100.0 423 100.0 573 100.0 735 100.0 871 100.0 429 100.0 442 100.0 672 100.0 235 100.0 438 100.0 946 100.0 531 100.0 415 100.0 EXTREMELYLIKELY2313 92.9 1129 94.5 881 96.3 235 88.1 1183 91.4 818 93.9 338 85.3 210 84.5 463 93.0 394 93.0 549 95.9 684 93.2 810 92.9 405 94.4 404 91.5 639 95.1 227 96.6 412 94.2 864 91.3 497 93.6 366 88.3 VERYLIKELY114 4.6 34 2.9 26 2.9 8 2.9 80 6.2 37 4.2 43 10.9 24 9.7 16 3.2 23 5.4 16 2.8 35 4.8 36 4.1 12 2.7 24 5.5 22 3.3 6 2.7 16 3.6 57 6.0 16 3.0 40 9.7 SOMEWHATLIKELY63 2.5 32 2.6 7 0.8 24 9.0 31 2.4 16 1.9 15 3.7 15 5.8 19 3.8 7 1.7 8 1.3 15 2.0 26 3.0 12 2.9 14 3.1 11 1.6 2 0.7 10 2.2 26 2.7 18 3.3 8 2.0
  13. 13. MontanaUSSenateGeneralElectionSurvey,April1st-2nd,2014,2,490N,1.96%MoE,WeightedResults,MagellanStrategies,1685BoxelderSt.Suite300,Louisville,CO80027,303-861-8585 Table2-2 T2.HowlikelyareyoutovoteintheNovembergeneralelectionfortheUnitedStatesSenate? FISCALIDEOLOGYSOCIALIDEOLOGYVOTERMOODGENERICCONGRESSWALSHIMG ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL --------- VERY CONS --------- CONS ERVE -------- MODE RATE --------- LIB ERAL --------- VERY CONS -------- CONS ERVE --------- MODE RATE --------- LIB ERAL -------- RGHT DIR --------- WRNG TRCK --------- DEM CAND -------- REP CAND --------- OTHR CAND -------- FAV TOT --------- VERY FAV --------- SMWT FAV -------- UNFV TOT --------- VERY UNFV --------- SMWT UNFV -------- NO OPIN --------- TOTAL2490 100.0 758 100.0 744 100.0 772 100.0 172 100.0 768 100.0 477 100.0 620 100.0 581 100.0 738 100.0 1604 100.0 918 100.0 1237 100.0 136 100.0 1160 100.0 589 100.0 572 100.0 713 100.0 328 100.0 386 100.0 418 100.0 EXTREMELYLIKELY2313 92.9 701 92.4 695 93.5 716 92.7 168 97.7 718 93.5 433 90.8 584 94.2 543 93.6 710 96.3 1477 92.1 879 95.7 1148 92.8 128 94.0 1120 96.6 579 98.4 541 94.7 690 96.7 321 97.9 369 95.6 340 81.3 VERYLIKELY114 4.6 26 3.5 37 5.0 41 5.3 4 2.3 33 4.3 22 4.5 24 3.9 30 5.2 21 2.8 77 4.8 30 3.3 48 3.8 6 4.8 27 2.4 7 1.3 20 3.5 21 2.9 7 2.1 14 3.5 55 13.1 SOMEWHATLIKELY63 2.5 31 4.2 11 1.5 15 1.9 17 2.2 22 4.7 12 1.9 7 1.3 7 0.9 50 3.1 9 1.0 41 3.3 2 1.2 13 1.1 2 0.3 10 1.8 3 0.5 3 0.9 23 5.5
  14. 14. MontanaUSSenateGeneralElectionSurvey,April1st-2nd,2014,2,490N,1.96%MoE,WeightedResults,MagellanStrategies,1685BoxelderSt.Suite300,Louisville,CO80027,303-861-8585 Table2-3 T2.HowlikelyareyoutovoteintheNovembergeneralelectionfortheUnitedStatesSenate? DAINESIMGUSSENATEBALLOT ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL --------- FAV TOT --------- VERY FAV -------- SMWT FAV --------- UNFV TOT --------- VERY UNFV -------- SMWT UNFV --------- NO OPIN --------- WLSH TOT -------- DEF WLSH --------- PROB WLSH --------- DAIN TOT -------- DEF DAIN --------- PROB DAIN -------- ROGR ROOT --------- SOME OTHR --------- UNDE CIDE -------- TOTAL2490 100.0 1327 100.0 860 100.0 467 100.0 818 100.0 473 100.0 345 100.0 258 100.0 886 100.0 682 100.0 204 100.0 1207 100.0 920 100.0 288 100.0 108 100.0 111 100.0 163 100.0 EXTREMELYLIKELY2313 92.9 1256 94.7 820 95.3 436 93.4 788 96.4 463 97.9 325 94.3 199 77.2 848 95.7 657 96.3 191 93.7 1128 93.4 876 95.2 252 87.7 90 83.4 108 97.0 129 79.4 VERYLIKELY114 4.6 41 3.1 21 2.5 20 4.3 22 2.7 7 1.4 15 4.5 42 16.1 28 3.1 17 2.4 11 5.5 42 3.5 19 2.1 23 8.0 17 15.4 2 1.9 24 14.9 SOMEWHATLIKELY63 2.5 29 2.2 19 2.2 10 2.2 8 0.9 3 0.7 4 1.2 17 6.8 10 1.1 8 1.2 2 0.8 37 3.1 25 2.7 13 4.4 1 1.2 1 1.2 9 5.7
  15. 15. MontanaUSSenateGeneralElectionSurvey,April1st-2nd,2014,2,490N,1.96%MoE,WeightedResults,MagellanStrategies,1685BoxelderSt.Suite300,Louisville,CO80027,303-861-8585 Table3-1 T3.Generallyspeaking,doyouthinkthingsinthecountryareheadedintherightdirectionordoyoufeelthatthingsareoffonthewrongtrack? GENDER~MARITALAGEREPUBLICANSDEMOCRATSINDEPENDENTS -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL --------- MEN TOT --------- MARR MEN -------- SING MEN --------- WOM TOT --------- MARR WOM -------- SING WOM --------- 18-29 --------- 30-44 -------- 45-54 --------- 55-64 --------- 65 PLUS -------- REP TOT --------- REP MEN -------- REP WOM --------- DEM TOT --------- DEM MEN -------- DEM WOM --------- IND TOT --------- IND MEN -------- IND WOM --------- TOTAL2490 100.0 1195 100.0 915 100.0 267 100.0 1295 100.0 871 100.0 396 100.0 249 100.0 498 100.0 423 100.0 573 100.0 735 100.0 871 100.0 429 100.0 442 100.0 672 100.0 235 100.0 438 100.0 946 100.0 531 100.0 415 100.0 RIGHTDIRECTION738 29.6 337 28.2 244 26.6 92 34.3 401 30.9 277 31.8 122 30.7 44 17.6 151 30.3 123 29.2 206 36.0 211 28.7 68 7.8 38 8.8 30 6.8 441 65.6 153 65.4 288 65.7 229 24.2 146 27.5 83 20.0 WRONGTRACK1604 64.4 799 66.9 624 68.2 167 62.3 805 62.1 546 62.7 234 59.1 197 79.1 318 63.8 272 64.2 344 60.1 466 63.4 785 90.1 383 89.3 402 90.9 178 26.5 66 28.2 112 25.6 640 67.7 350 65.8 291 70.0 UNSURE NOOPINION 148 6.0 59 4.9 47 5.2 9 3.4 90 6.9 48 5.5 41 10.3 8 3.3 29 5.9 28 6.6 22 3.9 58 7.9 18 2.1 8 1.9 10 2.3 53 7.9 15 6.5 38 8.7 77 8.1 35 6.7 41 10.0
  16. 16. MontanaUSSenateGeneralElectionSurvey,April1st-2nd,2014,2,490N,1.96%MoE,WeightedResults,MagellanStrategies,1685BoxelderSt.Suite300,Louisville,CO80027,303-861-8585 Table3-2 T3.Generallyspeaking,doyouthinkthingsinthecountryareheadedintherightdirectionordoyoufeelthatthingsareoffonthewrongtrack? FISCALIDEOLOGYSOCIALIDEOLOGYVOTERMOODGENERICCONGRESSWALSHIMG ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL --------- VERY CONS --------- CONS ERVE -------- MODE RATE --------- LIB ERAL --------- VERY CONS -------- CONS ERVE --------- MODE RATE --------- LIB ERAL -------- RGHT DIR --------- WRNG TRCK --------- DEM CAND -------- REP CAND --------- OTHR CAND -------- FAV TOT --------- VERY FAV --------- SMWT FAV -------- UNFV TOT --------- VERY UNFV --------- SMWT UNFV -------- NO OPIN --------- TOTAL2490 100.0 758 100.0 744 100.0 772 100.0 172 100.0 768 100.0 477 100.0 620 100.0 581 100.0 738 100.0 1604 100.0 918 100.0 1237 100.0 136 100.0 1160 100.0 589 100.0 572 100.0 713 100.0 328 100.0 386 100.0 418 100.0 RIGHTDIRECTION738 29.6 67 8.8 107 14.4 439 56.9 118 68.7 79 10.3 65 13.6 211 34.1 372 64.1 738 100.0 627 68.2 42 3.4 16 11.4 589 50.8 384 65.3 205 35.8 44 6.2 9 2.7 35 9.2 72 17.3 WRONGTRACK1604 64.4 677 89.3 600 80.7 263 34.1 44 25.8 674 87.8 389 81.6 355 57.3 167 28.8 1604 100.0 218 23.7 1172 94.7 98 72.4 477 41.1 162 27.5 314 55.0 662 92.8 318 97.1 343 89.1 310 74.1 UNSURE NOOPINION 148 6.0 14 1.8 37 5.0 70 9.0 10 5.6 15 1.9 23 4.7 53 8.6 41 7.1 74 8.0 23 1.9 22 16.2 95 8.2 42 7.2 52 9.2 7 1.0 1 0.2 7 1.8 36 8.5
  17. 17. MontanaUSSenateGeneralElectionSurvey,April1st-2nd,2014,2,490N,1.96%MoE,WeightedResults,MagellanStrategies,1685BoxelderSt.Suite300,Louisville,CO80027,303-861-8585 Table3-3 T3.Generallyspeaking,doyouthinkthingsinthecountryareheadedintherightdirectionordoyoufeelthatthingsareoffonthewrongtrack? DAINESIMGUSSENATEBALLOT ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL --------- FAV TOT --------- VERY FAV -------- SMWT FAV --------- UNFV TOT --------- VERY UNFV -------- SMWT UNFV --------- NO OPIN --------- WLSH TOT -------- DEF WLSH --------- PROB WLSH --------- DAIN TOT -------- DEF DAIN --------- PROB DAIN -------- ROGR ROOT --------- SOME OTHR --------- UNDE CIDE -------- TOTAL2490 100.0 1327 100.0 860 100.0 467 100.0 818 100.0 473 100.0 345 100.0 258 100.0 886 100.0 682 100.0 204 100.0 1207 100.0 920 100.0 288 100.0 108 100.0 111 100.0 163 100.0 RIGHTDIRECTION738 29.6 146 11.0 45 5.2 101 21.6 514 62.9 330 69.8 184 53.4 54 21.1 591 66.6 487 71.4 103 50.6 64 5.3 26 2.8 38 13.4 17 15.4 35 31.0 27 16.4 WRONGTRACK1604 64.4 1133 85.4 797 92.7 336 71.9 238 29.1 101 21.3 137 39.7 181 70.1 224 25.3 148 21.6 76 37.6 1119 92.7 879 95.5 240 83.5 82 75.5 66 59.6 107 65.6 UNSURE NOOPINION 148 6.0 49 3.7 18 2.1 30 6.5 66 8.1 42 8.9 24 6.9 23 8.8 71 8.0 47 6.9 24 11.8 24 2.0 15 1.6 9 3.1 10 9.1 10 9.4 29 18.0
  18. 18. MontanaUSSenateGeneralElectionSurvey,April1st-2nd,2014,2,490N,1.96%MoE,WeightedResults,MagellanStrategies,1685BoxelderSt.Suite300,Louisville,CO80027,303-861-8585 Table4-1 T4.IftheelectionforCongresswerebeingheldtodaywouldyouvotefortheDemocratcandidateortheRepublicancandidate? GENDER~MARITALAGEREPUBLICANSDEMOCRATSINDEPENDENTS -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL --------- MEN TOT --------- MARR MEN -------- SING MEN --------- WOM TOT --------- MARR WOM -------- SING WOM --------- 18-29 --------- 30-44 -------- 45-54 --------- 55-64 --------- 65 PLUS -------- REP TOT --------- REP MEN -------- REP WOM --------- DEM TOT --------- DEM MEN -------- DEM WOM --------- IND TOT --------- IND MEN -------- IND WOM --------- TOTAL2490 100.0 1195 100.0 915 100.0 267 100.0 1295 100.0 871 100.0 396 100.0 249 100.0 498 100.0 423 100.0 573 100.0 735 100.0 871 100.0 429 100.0 442 100.0 672 100.0 235 100.0 438 100.0 946 100.0 531 100.0 415 100.0 REPUBLICANCANDIDATE1237 49.7 625 52.3 497 54.3 125 46.7 612 47.3 447 51.4 141 35.7 154 61.7 242 48.6 236 55.8 252 44.0 349 47.5 783 89.8 377 87.9 406 91.7 54 8.1 11 4.8 43 9.8 400 42.2 236 44.4 164 39.4 DEMOCRATCANDIDATE918 36.9 408 34.1 292 31.9 106 39.8 511 39.5 339 38.9 169 42.6 30 12.1 165 33.1 153 36.1 257 44.9 305 41.5 57 6.5 33 7.6 24 5.4 581 86.4 216 92.2 364 83.2 281 29.7 158 29.8 123 29.5 SOMEOTHERCANDIDATE136 5.5 71 5.9 52 5.7 19 7.0 65 5.0 36 4.1 29 7.3 18 7.3 44 8.8 15 3.4 25 4.4 34 4.7 8 0.9 4 0.9 4 0.9 6 1.0 1 0.5 5 1.2 122 12.9 66 12.4 56 13.6 UNDECIDED167 6.7 86 7.2 69 7.6 16 6.0 81 6.3 43 4.9 38 9.6 36 14.5 45 9.1 14 3.2 35 6.2 36 4.9 21 2.4 14 3.3 7 1.6 15 2.3 6 2.4 10 2.2 130 13.8 66 12.3 65 15.6 NOOPINION32 1.3 7 0.6 5 0.6 2 0.6 25 1.9 6 0.7 19 4.8 11 4.3 1 0.3 6 1.4 3 0.6 10 1.4 3 0.3 1 0.3 2 0.4 16 2.3 16 3.6 13 1.4 5 1.0 8 1.9
  19. 19. MontanaUSSenateGeneralElectionSurvey,April1st-2nd,2014,2,490N,1.96%MoE,WeightedResults,MagellanStrategies,1685BoxelderSt.Suite300,Louisville,CO80027,303-861-8585 Table4-2 T4.IftheelectionforCongresswerebeingheldtodaywouldyouvotefortheDemocratcandidateortheRepublicancandidate? FISCALIDEOLOGYSOCIALIDEOLOGYVOTERMOODGENERICCONGRESSWALSHIMG ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL --------- VERY CONS --------- CONS ERVE -------- MODE RATE --------- LIB ERAL --------- VERY CONS -------- CONS ERVE --------- MODE RATE --------- LIB ERAL -------- RGHT DIR --------- WRNG TRCK --------- DEM CAND -------- REP CAND --------- OTHR CAND -------- FAV TOT --------- VERY FAV --------- SMWT FAV -------- UNFV TOT --------- VERY UNFV --------- SMWT UNFV -------- NO OPIN --------- TOTAL2490 100.0 758 100.0 744 100.0 772 100.0 172 100.0 768 100.0 477 100.0 620 100.0 581 100.0 738 100.0 1604 100.0 918 100.0 1237 100.0 136 100.0 1160 100.0 589 100.0 572 100.0 713 100.0 328 100.0 386 100.0 418 100.0 REPUBLICANCANDIDATE1237 49.7 592 78.1 496 66.7 127 16.4 19 11.0 604 78.6 337 70.6 252 40.6 43 7.4 42 5.6 1172 73.1 1237 100.0 277 23.8 65 11.0 212 37.1 615 86.2 309 94.3 306 79.2 206 49.4 DEMOCRATCANDIDATE918 36.9 83 10.9 144 19.3 533 69.1 143 83.5 80 10.5 88 18.5 278 44.9 452 77.9 627 84.9 218 13.6 918 100.0 752 64.8 489 83.1 263 46.0 52 7.3 7 2.1 45 11.7 78 18.7 SOMEOTHERCANDIDATE136 5.5 42 5.5 48 6.4 33 4.3 6 3.5 32 4.1 24 5.1 39 6.2 31 5.4 16 2.1 98 6.1 136 100.0 48 4.1 11 1.9 37 6.5 26 3.7 11 3.2 16 4.1 53 12.6 UNDECIDED167 6.7 40 5.2 50 6.7 62 8.0 3 2.0 38 5.0 24 5.1 45 7.3 51 8.7 40 5.4 106 6.6 67 5.7 22 3.7 45 7.9 18 2.5 1 0.4 17 4.3 70 16.7 NOOPINION32 1.3 2 0.3 6 0.8 17 2.2 14 1.8 4 0.7 6 1.0 3 0.6 14 2.0 10 0.6 17 1.4 2 0.4 15 2.6 3 0.4 3 0.7 11 2.6
  20. 20. MontanaUSSenateGeneralElectionSurvey,April1st-2nd,2014,2,490N,1.96%MoE,WeightedResults,MagellanStrategies,1685BoxelderSt.Suite300,Louisville,CO80027,303-861-8585 Table4-3 T4.IftheelectionforCongresswerebeingheldtodaywouldyouvotefortheDemocratcandidateortheRepublicancandidate? DAINESIMGUSSENATEBALLOT ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL --------- FAV TOT --------- VERY FAV -------- SMWT FAV --------- UNFV TOT --------- VERY UNFV -------- SMWT UNFV --------- NO OPIN --------- WLSH TOT -------- DEF WLSH --------- PROB WLSH --------- DAIN TOT -------- DEF DAIN --------- PROB DAIN -------- ROGR ROOT --------- SOME OTHR --------- UNDE CIDE -------- TOTAL2490 100.0 1327 100.0 860 100.0 467 100.0 818 100.0 473 100.0 345 100.0 258 100.0 886 100.0 682 100.0 204 100.0 1207 100.0 920 100.0 288 100.0 108 100.0 111 100.0 163 100.0 REPUBLICANCANDIDATE1237 49.7 1034 77.9 760 88.4 273 58.5 57 6.9 9 1.8 48 13.9 110 42.6 35 3.9 22 3.2 13 6.5 1098 91.0 875 95.1 223 77.6 31 28.9 26 23.6 41 25.4 DEMOCRATCANDIDATE918 36.9 175 13.2 51 5.9 124 26.5 660 80.7 430 90.8 230 66.7 52 20.1 800 90.3 646 94.7 154 75.5 36 3.0 20 2.1 17 5.8 14 13.0 38 34.5 27 16.6 SOMEOTHERCANDIDATE136 5.5 54 4.0 18 2.1 35 7.5 38 4.7 16 3.5 22 6.4 36 13.8 6 0.7 4 0.6 2 1.2 20 1.7 9 1.0 11 3.8 56 52.0 32 28.3 19 11.7 UNDECIDED167 6.7 56 4.2 28 3.3 28 5.9 60 7.3 16 3.4 44 12.8 44 16.9 31 3.5 9 1.4 21 10.5 48 4.0 13 1.4 35 12.2 7 6.1 13 11.4 68 41.6 NOOPINION32 1.3 9 0.7 2 0.2 7 1.6 3 0.4 2 0.5 1 0.2 17 6.6 14 1.6 1 0.1 13 6.4 5 0.4 3 0.3 2 0.6 2 2.2 8 4.7
  21. 21. MontanaUSSenateGeneralElectionSurvey,April1st-2nd,2014,2,490N,1.96%MoE,WeightedResults,MagellanStrategies,1685BoxelderSt.Suite300,Louisville,CO80027,303-861-8585 Table5-1 T5.NowI'mgoingtoreadtoyouthenamesofsomepeopleinvolvedinpolitics.Afterhearingthename,pleasetellmeifyouhaveafavorableorunfavorableopinionofthatperson.Ifyoudon'tknowthenameofthe person,thereisanoptionforthataswell.Let'sgetstarted,thefirstnameis...JohnWalsh. GENDER~MARITALAGEREPUBLICANSDEMOCRATSINDEPENDENTS -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL --------- MEN TOT --------- MARR MEN -------- SING MEN --------- WOM TOT --------- MARR WOM -------- SING WOM --------- 18-29 --------- 30-44 -------- 45-54 --------- 55-64 --------- 65 PLUS -------- REP TOT --------- REP MEN -------- REP WOM --------- DEM TOT --------- DEM MEN -------- DEM WOM --------- IND TOT --------- IND MEN -------- IND WOM --------- TOTAL2490 100.0 1195 100.0 915 100.0 267 100.0 1295 100.0 871 100.0 396 100.0 249 100.0 498 100.0 423 100.0 573 100.0 735 100.0 871 100.0 429 100.0 442 100.0 672 100.0 235 100.0 438 100.0 946 100.0 531 100.0 415 100.0 TOTALFAVORABLE1160 46.6 575 48.1 424 46.3 140 52.4 586 45.2 394 45.3 189 47.6 57 23.1 171 34.4 206 48.8 322 56.3 396 54.0 253 29.0 145 33.8 108 24.4 497 73.9 187 79.7 310 70.9 410 43.4 243 45.7 168 40.4 TOTALUNFAVORABLE713 28.7 366 30.6 301 32.9 63 23.7 347 26.8 259 29.7 66 16.6 92 37.0 131 26.3 117 27.8 160 28.0 207 28.2 379 43.5 201 46.8 178 40.2 72 10.7 24 10.2 48 11.0 262 27.7 141 26.6 121 29.2 NOOPINION418 16.8 163 13.6 130 14.2 32 12.1 255 19.7 146 16.7 108 27.1 85 34.1 108 21.7 61 14.4 66 11.6 97 13.2 147 16.8 53 12.4 94 21.2 77 11.4 19 8.0 58 13.3 194 20.5 91 17.0 104 25.0 VERYFAVORABLE589 23.6 296 24.8 219 23.9 76 28.5 292 22.6 208 23.9 83 21.0 31 12.5 90 18.0 85 20.2 166 29.0 213 28.9 90 10.3 61 14.3 28 6.4 306 45.6 115 49.2 191 43.6 193 20.4 120 22.5 73 17.6 SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE 572 23.0 278 23.3 205 22.4 64 23.9 293 22.7 186 21.4 106 26.7 26 10.6 82 16.4 121 28.6 156 27.3 184 25.0 163 18.7 84 19.5 80 18.0 191 28.4 72 30.5 119 27.2 217 23.0 123 23.1 95 22.8 VERYUNFAVORABLE328 13.2 150 12.5 127 13.9 22 8.1 178 13.8 122 14.1 34 8.7 75 30.2 61 12.3 50 11.7 67 11.7 73 9.9 162 18.6 79 18.5 83 18.7 34 5.1 7 3.0 27 6.2 132 13.9 63 11.9 68 16.5 SOMEWHAT UNFAVORABLE 386 15.5 217 18.1 174 19.0 42 15.7 169 13.0 136 15.6 31 7.9 17 6.8 69 13.9 68 16.0 94 16.3 135 18.3 217 24.9 122 28.4 95 21.5 38 5.7 17 7.3 21 4.8 130 13.8 78 14.6 53 12.7 NEVERHEARDOF172 6.9 74 6.2 47 5.2 26 9.9 98 7.6 67 7.7 31 7.9 15 5.8 77 15.4 32 7.6 22 3.9 27 3.6 81 9.3 23 5.4 58 13.0 22 3.2 2 0.9 20 4.5 70 7.4 49 9.2 21 5.1 UNSURE26 1.0 18 1.5 13 1.4 5 1.8 8 0.6 5 0.6 3 0.7 11 2.2 6 1.5 2 0.3 7 1.0 12 1.4 7 1.6 5 1.2 4 0.7 3 1.2 2 0.4 9 1.0 8 1.6 1 0.3
  22. 22. MontanaUSSenateGeneralElectionSurvey,April1st-2nd,2014,2,490N,1.96%MoE,WeightedResults,MagellanStrategies,1685BoxelderSt.Suite300,Louisville,CO80027,303-861-8585 Table5-2 T5.NowI'mgoingtoreadtoyouthenamesofsomepeopleinvolvedinpolitics.Afterhearingthename,pleasetellmeifyouhaveafavorableorunfavorableopinionofthatperson.Ifyoudon'tknowthenameofthe person,thereisanoptionforthataswell.Let'sgetstarted,thefirstnameis...JohnWalsh. FISCALIDEOLOGYSOCIALIDEOLOGYVOTERMOODGENERICCONGRESSWALSHIMG ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL --------- VERY CONS --------- CONS ERVE -------- MODE RATE --------- LIB ERAL --------- VERY CONS -------- CONS ERVE --------- MODE RATE --------- LIB ERAL -------- RGHT DIR --------- WRNG TRCK --------- DEM CAND -------- REP CAND --------- OTHR CAND -------- FAV TOT --------- VERY FAV --------- SMWT FAV -------- UNFV TOT --------- VERY UNFV --------- SMWT UNFV -------- NO OPIN --------- TOTAL2490 100.0 758 100.0 744 100.0 772 100.0 172 100.0 768 100.0 477 100.0 620 100.0 581 100.0 738 100.0 1604 100.0 918 100.0 1237 100.0 136 100.0 1160 100.0 589 100.0 572 100.0 713 100.0 328 100.0 386 100.0 418 100.0 TOTALFAVORABLE1160 46.6 196 25.9 281 37.8 546 70.7 121 70.8 236 30.8 145 30.4 346 55.9 416 71.7 589 79.8 477 29.7 752 81.9 277 22.4 48 35.3 1160 100.0 589 100.0 572 100.0 TOTALUNFAVORABLE713 28.7 336 44.3 241 32.5 110 14.3 25 14.8 314 40.9 189 39.6 155 24.9 55 9.5 44 6.0 662 41.3 52 5.6 615 49.7 26 19.3 713 100.0 328 100.0 386 100.0 NOOPINION418 16.8 129 17.0 160 21.6 89 11.5 20 11.6 147 19.1 83 17.3 81 13.0 91 15.7 72 9.8 310 19.3 78 8.5 206 16.7 53 38.6 418 100.0 VERYFAVORABLE589 23.6 82 10.8 108 14.5 310 40.1 85 49.7 99 12.8 51 10.7 181 29.2 254 43.8 384 52.1 162 10.1 489 53.3 65 5.2 11 8.1 589 50.7 589 100.0 SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE 572 23.0 115 15.1 173 23.3 236 30.6 36 21.1 138 17.9 94 19.7 165 26.7 162 27.9 205 27.8 314 19.6 263 28.6 212 17.1 37 27.2 572 49.3 572 100.0 VERYUNFAVORABLE328 13.2 180 23.7 89 12.0 40 5.1 20 11.5 159 20.8 74 15.5 69 11.1 26 4.5 9 1.2 318 19.9 7 0.7 309 25.0 11 7.8 328 46.0 328 100.0 SOMEWHAT UNFAVORABLE 386 15.5 156 20.6 152 20.5 71 9.1 6 3.3 155 20.2 115 24.2 86 13.9 29 5.0 35 4.8 343 21.4 45 4.9 306 24.7 16 11.5 386 54.0 386 100.0 NEVERHEARDOF172 6.9 86 11.4 51 6.9 25 3.2 4 2.6 60 7.8 53 11.0 35 5.7 17 2.9 31 4.2 134 8.3 32 3.5 124 10.0 9 6.3 UNSURE26 1.0 11 1.4 9 1.3 3 0.30.1 11 1.4 8 1.6 3 0.5 1 0.3 1 0.1 22 1.4 4 0.5 15 1.2 1 0.5
  23. 23. MontanaUSSenateGeneralElectionSurvey,April1st-2nd,2014,2,490N,1.96%MoE,WeightedResults,MagellanStrategies,1685BoxelderSt.Suite300,Louisville,CO80027,303-861-8585 Table5-3 T5.NowI'mgoingtoreadtoyouthenamesofsomepeopleinvolvedinpolitics.Afterhearingthename,pleasetellmeifyouhaveafavorableorunfavorableopinionofthatperson.Ifyoudon'tknowthenameofthe person,thereisanoptionforthataswell.Let'sgetstarted,thefirstnameis...JohnWalsh. DAINESIMGUSSENATEBALLOT ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL --------- FAV TOT --------- VERY FAV -------- SMWT FAV --------- UNFV TOT --------- VERY UNFV -------- SMWT UNFV --------- NO OPIN --------- WLSH TOT -------- DEF WLSH --------- PROB WLSH --------- DAIN TOT -------- DEF DAIN --------- PROB DAIN -------- ROGR ROOT --------- SOME OTHR --------- UNDE CIDE -------- TOTAL2490 100.0 1327 100.0 860 100.0 467 100.0 818 100.0 473 100.0 345 100.0 258 100.0 886 100.0 682 100.0 204 100.0 1207 100.0 920 100.0 288 100.0 108 100.0 111 100.0 163 100.0 TOTALFAVORABLE1160 46.6 441 33.3 235 27.3 207 44.2 667 81.5 418 88.4 249 72.2 44 17.0 777 87.7 624 91.4 153 75.3 262 21.7 166 18.1 96 33.3 33 30.2 43 38.8 45 27.3 TOTALUNFAVORABLE713 28.7 616 46.4 483 56.2 133 28.4 84 10.2 27 5.7 57 16.5 9 3.6 25 2.8 8 1.1 17 8.5 618 51.2 529 57.5 89 30.8 27 24.7 34 30.6 9 5.8 NOOPINION418 16.8 165 12.4 81 9.5 84 17.9 53 6.5 24 5.0 30 8.6 176 68.3 63 7.1 40 5.9 23 11.2 192 15.9 122 13.3 70 24.3 45 42.1 24 21.7 87 53.5 VERYFAVORABLE589 23.6 170 12.8 84 9.8 85 18.3 406 49.6 276 58.4 129 37.5 9 3.5 524 59.2 484 71.0 40 19.6 37 3.1 30 3.3 7 2.5 13 12.1 6 5.5 8 4.7 SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE 572 23.0 272 20.5 151 17.5 121 25.9 261 31.9 141 29.9 120 34.7 35 13.5 253 28.6 139 20.4 114 55.8 225 18.6 136 14.8 88 30.8 20 18.2 37 33.3 37 22.6 VERYUNFAVORABLE328 13.2 309 23.3 261 30.4 48 10.3 17 2.0 10 2.2 6 1.8 1 0.3 1 0.1 1 0.3 305 25.3 276 30.0 29 10.0 14 12.8 8 7.4 SOMEWHAT UNFAVORABLE 386 15.5 306 23.1 222 25.8 85 18.1 67 8.2 16 3.5 50 14.6 9 3.3 24 2.8 8 1.1 17 8.2 313 25.9 253 27.5 60 20.8 13 11.9 26 23.2 9 5.8 NEVERHEARDOF172 6.9 87 6.5 51 5.9 36 7.7 11 1.4 4 0.7 8 2.2 29 11.0 16 1.9 10 1.4 7 3.3 118 9.8 86 9.4 32 11.1 2 1.9 9 8.4 21 12.7 UNSURE26 1.0 18 1.3 10 1.2 8 1.7 3 0.3 1 0.2 2 0.5 5 0.5 1 0.2 3 1.7 18 1.5 16 1.8 1 0.5 1 1.1 1 0.6 1 0.7
  24. 24. MontanaUSSenateGeneralElectionSurvey,April1st-2nd,2014,2,490N,1.96%MoE,WeightedResults,MagellanStrategies,1685BoxelderSt.Suite300,Louisville,CO80027,303-861-8585 Table6-1 T6.ThenextpersonisSteveDaines. GENDER~MARITALAGEREPUBLICANSDEMOCRATSINDEPENDENTS -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL --------- MEN TOT --------- MARR MEN -------- SING MEN --------- WOM TOT --------- MARR WOM -------- SING WOM --------- 18-29 --------- 30-44 -------- 45-54 --------- 55-64 --------- 65 PLUS -------- REP TOT --------- REP MEN -------- REP WOM --------- DEM TOT --------- DEM MEN -------- DEM WOM --------- IND TOT --------- IND MEN -------- IND WOM --------- TOTAL2490 100.0 1195 100.0 915 100.0 267 100.0 1295 100.0 871 100.0 396 100.0 249 100.0 498 100.0 423 100.0 573 100.0 735 100.0 871 100.0 429 100.0 442 100.0 672 100.0 235 100.0 438 100.0 946 100.0 531 100.0 415 100.0 TOTALFAVORABLE1327 53.3 670 56.0 526 57.5 140 52.4 657 50.8 453 52.0 181 45.6 145 58.2 231 46.4 239 56.5 289 50.4 416 56.7 688 78.9 353 82.2 335 75.7 161 23.9 48 20.7 113 25.7 478 50.5 268 50.5 210 50.6 TOTALUNFAVORABLE818 32.8 412 34.5 303 33.1 99 37.1 406 31.4 296 34.0 107 27.1 20 8.0 159 31.9 139 32.7 247 43.2 249 33.9 64 7.4 38 8.9 26 6.0 429 63.9 168 71.5 262 59.7 324 34.2 206 38.8 118 28.4 NOOPINION258 10.4 90 7.6 70 7.7 20 7.5 168 13.0 89 10.2 78 19.6 84 33.8 69 13.8 33 7.9 21 3.7 49 6.7 89 10.2 29 6.9 59 13.4 61 9.1 14 6.0 47 10.7 109 11.5 47 8.8 62 14.9 VERYFAVORABLE860 34.5 445 37.2 349 38.1 95 35.5 415 32.0 293 33.7 99 24.9 132 53.1 137 27.6 147 34.7 178 31.0 264 35.9 513 58.9 266 62.0 247 55.9 57 8.4 14 6.1 42 9.7 290 30.6 165 31.0 125 30.2 SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE 467 18.8 225 18.8 178 19.4 45 16.9 243 18.7 160 18.4 82 20.7 13 5.1 94 18.8 92 21.8 111 19.4 153 20.8 175 20.1 87 20.3 88 19.9 104 15.5 34 14.6 70 16.0 188 19.9 103 19.5 85 20.4 VERYUNFAVORABLE473 19.0 249 20.8 182 19.9 58 21.8 224 17.3 174 20.0 47 11.9 94 18.9 87 20.4 157 27.4 135 18.3 18 2.1 12 2.9 6 1.4 273 40.6 115 49.1 158 36.1 181 19.2 122 22.9 60 14.4 SOMEWHAT UNFAVORABLE 345 13.8 163 13.6 121 13.2 41 15.3 182 14.1 122 14.0 60 15.1 20 8.0 65 13.0 52 12.3 91 15.9 115 15.6 46 5.3 26 6.0 20 4.6 156 23.2 53 22.5 103 23.6 143 15.1 85 15.9 58 14.0 NEVERHEARDOF68 2.7 16 1.3 12 1.3 4 1.4 52 4.0 26 3.0 25 6.4 40 7.9 10 2.4 10 1.7 9 1.2 26 2.9 9 2.1 17 3.8 15 2.30.1 15 3.4 27 2.9 7 1.3 20 4.9 UNSURE19 0.8 7 0.6 3 0.3 4 1.6 12 0.9 6 0.7 5 1.3 2 0.5 6 1.0 11 1.6 5 0.6 5 1.1 6 0.9 4 1.7 2 0.4 8 0.9 3 0.6 5 1.2
  25. 25. MontanaUSSenateGeneralElectionSurvey,April1st-2nd,2014,2,490N,1.96%MoE,WeightedResults,MagellanStrategies,1685BoxelderSt.Suite300,Louisville,CO80027,303-861-8585 Table6-2 T6.ThenextpersonisSteveDaines. FISCALIDEOLOGYSOCIALIDEOLOGYVOTERMOODGENERICCONGRESSWALSHIMG ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL --------- VERY CONS --------- CONS ERVE -------- MODE RATE --------- LIB ERAL --------- VERY CONS -------- CONS ERVE --------- MODE RATE --------- LIB ERAL -------- RGHT DIR --------- WRNG TRCK --------- DEM CAND -------- REP CAND --------- OTHR CAND -------- FAV TOT --------- VERY FAV --------- SMWT FAV -------- UNFV TOT --------- VERY UNFV --------- SMWT UNFV -------- NO OPIN --------- TOTAL2490 100.0 758 100.0 744 100.0 772 100.0 172 100.0 768 100.0 477 100.0 620 100.0 581 100.0 738 100.0 1604 100.0 918 100.0 1237 100.0 136 100.0 1160 100.0 589 100.0 572 100.0 713 100.0 328 100.0 386 100.0 418 100.0 TOTALFAVORABLE1327 53.3 597 78.7 463 62.3 224 29.0 35 20.3 589 76.8 316 66.3 309 49.8 99 17.1 146 19.7 1133 70.6 175 19.0 1034 83.6 54 39.4 441 38.0 170 28.8 272 47.5 616 86.3 309 94.4 306 79.5 165 39.5 TOTALUNFAVORABLE818 32.8 62 8.1 160 21.5 459 59.5 128 74.9 63 8.2 79 16.6 258 41.6 412 70.9 514 69.7 238 14.8 660 71.8 57 4.6 38 28.2 667 57.5 406 68.9 261 45.7 84 11.7 17 5.1 67 17.4 53 12.8 NOOPINION258 10.4 74 9.7 96 12.9 66 8.6 5 3.0 98 12.7 69 14.4 31 4.9 48 8.2 54 7.4 181 11.3 52 5.6 110 8.9 36 26.2 44 3.8 9 1.5 35 6.1 9 1.3 1 0.3 9 2.2 176 42.2 VERYFAVORABLE860 34.5 438 57.8 314 42.2 82 10.6 23 13.2 440 57.4 222 46.5 156 25.2 37 6.4 45 6.1 797 49.7 51 5.6 760 61.5 18 13.5 235 20.2 84 14.3 151 26.3 483 67.7 261 79.6 222 57.5 81 19.4 SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE 467 18.8 159 20.9 149 20.0 142 18.4 12 7.1 149 19.4 95 19.8 152 24.5 62 10.7 101 13.7 336 21.0 124 13.5 273 22.1 35 25.9 207 17.8 85 14.5 121 21.2 133 18.6 48 14.7 85 21.9 84 20.1 VERYUNFAVORABLE473 19.0 26 3.4 68 9.1 285 36.9 91 53.1 20 2.6 29 6.0 136 21.9 286 49.3 330 44.7 101 6.3 430 46.8 9 0.7 16 12.1 418 36.0 276 47.0 141 24.8 27 3.8 10 3.2 16 4.3 24 5.7 SOMEWHAT UNFAVORABLE 345 13.8 35 4.7 92 12.4 175 22.6 37 21.7 43 5.6 50 10.5 122 19.7 125 21.6 184 24.9 137 8.5 230 25.1 48 3.9 22 16.1 249 21.4 129 22.0 120 20.9 57 8.0 6 1.9 50 13.1 30 7.1 NEVERHEARDOF68 2.7 21 2.8 22 2.9 19 2.5 2 1.0 12 1.6 12 2.6 19 3.0 20 3.5 22 3.0 44 2.7 26 2.8 31 2.5 7 5.0 5 0.4 3 0.5 2 0.4 3 0.4 3 0.7 17 4.0 UNSURE19 0.8 5 0.7 3 0.4 3 0.4 1 0.8 6 0.8 1 0.1 4 0.7 2 0.3 2 0.3 9 0.5 6 0.7 5 0.4 1 1.1 3 0.3 2 0.3 2 0.3 2 0.2 1 0.3 1 0.2 6 1.5
  26. 26. MontanaUSSenateGeneralElectionSurvey,April1st-2nd,2014,2,490N,1.96%MoE,WeightedResults,MagellanStrategies,1685BoxelderSt.Suite300,Louisville,CO80027,303-861-8585 Table6-3 T6.ThenextpersonisSteveDaines. DAINESIMGUSSENATEBALLOT ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL --------- FAV TOT --------- VERY FAV -------- SMWT FAV --------- UNFV TOT --------- VERY UNFV -------- SMWT UNFV --------- NO OPIN --------- WLSH TOT -------- DEF WLSH --------- PROB WLSH --------- DAIN TOT -------- DEF DAIN --------- PROB DAIN -------- ROGR ROOT --------- SOME OTHR --------- UNDE CIDE -------- TOTAL2490 100.0 1327 100.0 860 100.0 467 100.0 818 100.0 473 100.0 345 100.0 258 100.0 886 100.0 682 100.0 204 100.0 1207 100.0 920 100.0 288 100.0 108 100.0 111 100.0 163 100.0 TOTALFAVORABLE1327 53.3 1327 100.0 860 100.0 467 100.0 164 18.5 125 18.3 39 19.2 1054 87.3 855 93.0 199 69.4 30 28.2 31 27.8 45 27.8 TOTALUNFAVORABLE818 32.8 818 100.0 473 100.0 345 100.0 648 73.1 523 76.6 125 61.5 48 3.9 16 1.7 32 11.0 36 33.0 59 52.7 28 16.9 NOOPINION258 10.4 258 100.0 56 6.3 26 3.8 30 14.7 74 6.1 33 3.6 41 14.3 35 32.7 13 11.3 75 46.2 VERYFAVORABLE860 34.5 860 64.8 860 100.0 49 5.5 44 6.4 5 2.5 778 64.5 718 78.0 61 21.1 19 17.2 5 4.6 9 5.3 SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE 467 18.8 467 35.2 467 100.0 115 13.0 81 11.9 34 16.7 276 22.9 137 14.9 139 48.2 12 11.0 26 23.2 37 22.5 VERYUNFAVORABLE473 19.0 473 57.8 473 100.0 423 47.8 360 52.8 63 31.0 1 0.1 1 0.1 19 17.9 22 19.4 8 4.8 SOMEWHAT UNFAVORABLE 345 13.8 345 42.2 345 100.0 225 25.4 163 23.8 62 30.5 47 3.9 15 1.6 32 11.0 16 15.1 37 33.2 20 12.1 NEVERHEARDOF68 2.7 13 1.5 5 0.8 7 3.7 27 2.2 13 1.4 14 4.9 5 5.0 8 7.6 10 6.0 UNSURE19 0.8 5 0.6 3 0.5 2 1.0 5 0.4 4 0.4 1 0.4 1 1.1 1 0.6 5 3.1
  27. 27. MontanaUSSenateGeneralElectionSurvey,April1st-2nd,2014,2,490N,1.96%MoE,WeightedResults,MagellanStrategies,1685BoxelderSt.Suite300,Louisville,CO80027,303-861-8585 Table7-1 T7.IftheelectionfortheUnitedStatesSenatewerebeingheldtodayforwhomwouldyouvoteifthecandidateswereJohnWalsh,Democrat,SteveDaines,Republican,RogerRoots,Libertarianorsomeother candidate? GENDER~MARITALAGEREPUBLICANSDEMOCRATSINDEPENDENTS -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL --------- MEN TOT --------- MARR MEN -------- SING MEN --------- WOM TOT --------- MARR WOM -------- SING WOM --------- 18-29 --------- 30-44 -------- 45-54 --------- 55-64 --------- 65 PLUS -------- REP TOT --------- REP MEN -------- REP WOM --------- DEM TOT --------- DEM MEN -------- DEM WOM --------- IND TOT --------- IND MEN -------- IND WOM --------- TOTAL2490 100.0 1195 100.0 915 100.0 267 100.0 1295 100.0 871 100.0 396 100.0 249 100.0 498 100.0 423 100.0 573 100.0 735 100.0 871 100.0 429 100.0 442 100.0 672 100.0 235 100.0 438 100.0 946 100.0 531 100.0 415 100.0 STEVEDAINES1207 48.5 617 51.6 492 53.8 123 46.0 590 45.6 425 48.7 142 35.9 145 58.3 241 48.4 222 52.4 249 43.5 347 47.2 731 83.9 355 82.6 377 85.2 68 10.1 21 9.0 46 10.6 408 43.2 241 45.4 167 40.3 JOHNWALSH886 35.6 410 34.3 301 32.9 100 37.4 477 36.8 315 36.1 159 40.2 49 19.8 157 31.4 140 33.1 249 43.5 287 39.0 77 8.8 56 13.1 21 4.6 549 81.6 198 84.6 350 80.0 261 27.6 155 29.2 106 25.5 ROGERROOTS108 4.3 75 6.3 51 5.6 23 8.7 33 2.5 15 1.7 18 4.6 22 8.9 43 8.6 13 3.1 13 2.2 16 2.2 5 0.6 4 1.0 1 0.1 5 0.7 4 1.70.1 98 10.4 67 12.6 32 7.6 SOMEOTHERCANDIDATE111 4.5 49 4.1 37 4.0 11 4.0 62 4.8 43 5.0 19 4.7 25 4.9 19 4.4 32 5.6 33 4.5 14 1.6 5 1.2 9 2.0 24 3.6 6 2.4 19 4.3 73 7.7 39 7.3 34 8.3 DEFINITELYDAINES920 36.9 489 40.9 390 42.6 96 36.1 431 33.3 311 35.7 98 24.7 108 43.3 179 36.0 163 38.4 188 32.8 280 38.1 595 68.3 306 71.2 289 65.4 29 4.4 8 3.6 21 4.8 296 31.2 175 32.9 121 29.2 PROBABLYDAINES288 11.5 128 10.7 102 11.1 26 9.9 159 12.3 114 13.1 44 11.2 37 15.0 62 12.5 59 13.9 61 10.7 67 9.1 136 15.7 49 11.4 87 19.8 38 5.7 13 5.4 26 5.9 113 11.9 67 12.5 46 11.1 DEFINITELYWALSH682 27.4 330 27.6 246 26.9 81 30.4 352 27.2 239 27.5 111 27.9 34 13.8 113 22.8 109 25.8 198 34.6 224 30.4 57 6.6 46 10.6 12 2.7 441 65.5 165 70.4 276 63.0 184 19.5 119 22.5 65 15.6 PROBABLYWALSH204 8.2 80 6.7 55 6.0 19 6.9 124 9.6 75 8.6 49 12.3 15 6.0 43 8.7 31 7.3 51 8.9 63 8.6 19 2.2 11 2.5 9 1.9 108 16.1 33 14.3 75 17.0 76 8.1 36 6.7 41 9.9 UNDECIDED163 6.5 39 3.2 30 3.3 9 3.2 124 9.6 73 8.4 50 12.6 32 13.0 30 6.0 29 6.8 26 4.6 45 6.1 39 4.5 8 1.8 32 7.1 26 3.8 4 1.9 21 4.8 98 10.4 27 5.0 71 17.2 NOOPINION14 0.6 5 0.4 3 0.3 2 0.8 9 0.7 1 0.1 8 2.0 3 0.6 1 0.2 3 0.6 7 1.0 5 0.6 1 0.2 4 0.9 2 0.2 1 0.4 1 0.2 7 0.8 3 0.6 4 1.0
  28. 28. MontanaUSSenateGeneralElectionSurvey,April1st-2nd,2014,2,490N,1.96%MoE,WeightedResults,MagellanStrategies,1685BoxelderSt.Suite300,Louisville,CO80027,303-861-8585 Table7-2 T7.IftheelectionfortheUnitedStatesSenatewerebeingheldtodayforwhomwouldyouvoteifthecandidateswereJohnWalsh,Democrat,SteveDaines,Republican,RogerRoots,Libertarianorsomeother candidate? FISCALIDEOLOGYSOCIALIDEOLOGYVOTERMOODGENERICCONGRESSWALSHIMG ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL --------- VERY CONS --------- CONS ERVE -------- MODE RATE --------- LIB ERAL --------- VERY CONS -------- CONS ERVE --------- MODE RATE --------- LIB ERAL -------- RGHT DIR --------- WRNG TRCK --------- DEM CAND -------- REP CAND --------- OTHR CAND -------- FAV TOT --------- VERY FAV --------- SMWT FAV -------- UNFV TOT --------- VERY UNFV --------- SMWT UNFV -------- NO OPIN --------- TOTAL2490 100.0 758 100.0 744 100.0 772 100.0 172 100.0 768 100.0 477 100.0 620 100.0 581 100.0 738 100.0 1604 100.0 918 100.0 1237 100.0 136 100.0 1160 100.0 589 100.0 572 100.0 713 100.0 328 100.0 386 100.0 418 100.0 STEVEDAINES1207 48.5 568 74.9 466 62.7 150 19.4 18 10.7 560 73.0 340 71.3 239 38.6 63 10.8 64 8.7 1119 69.8 36 4.0 1098 88.8 20 14.8 262 22.6 37 6.3 225 39.3 618 86.6 305 93.0 313 81.1 192 45.9 JOHNWALSH886 35.6 93 12.2 138 18.6 505 65.4 138 80.2 107 13.9 76 15.9 261 42.1 426 73.3 591 80.0 224 14.0 800 87.1 35 2.8 6 4.7 777 67.0 524 89.0 253 44.3 25 3.5 1 0.2 24 6.3 63 15.0 ROGERROOTS108 4.3 48 6.4 39 5.2 17 2.2 4 2.3 36 4.7 18 3.8 30 4.8 24 4.2 17 2.3 82 5.1 14 1.5 31 2.5 56 41.3 33 2.8 13 2.2 20 3.4 27 3.7 14 4.2 13 3.3 45 10.9 SOMEOTHERCANDIDATE111 4.5 21 2.8 40 5.4 36 4.7 10 5.9 18 2.4 12 2.5 47 7.6 29 5.0 35 4.7 66 4.1 38 4.2 26 2.1 32 23.2 43 3.7 6 1.0 37 6.5 34 4.8 8 2.5 26 6.7 24 5.8 DEFINITELYDAINES920 36.9 467 61.6 353 47.5 89 11.6 8 4.4 448 58.3 274 57.3 172 27.8 24 4.1 26 3.5 879 54.8 20 2.1 875 70.7 9 6.7 166 14.3 30 5.1 136 23.8 529 74.1 276 84.2 253 65.6 122 29.2 PROBABLYDAINES288 11.5 101 13.3 113 15.2 60 7.8 11 6.3 112 14.6 67 14.0 67 10.9 39 6.7 38 5.2 240 15.0 17 1.8 223 18.0 11 8.1 96 8.2 7 1.2 88 15.5 89 12.4 29 8.8 60 15.5 70 16.7 DEFINITELYWALSH682 27.4 72 9.5 92 12.3 394 51.1 116 67.4 77 10.1 52 10.9 202 32.6 340 58.6 487 66.0 148 9.2 646 70.4 22 1.7 4 2.9 624 53.8 484 82.3 139 24.4 8 1.1 8 2.0 40 9.6 PROBABLYWALSH204 8.2 21 2.7 47 6.3 110 14.3 22 12.9 29 3.8 24 5.0 59 9.5 86 14.7 103 14.0 76 4.8 154 16.7 13 1.1 2 1.7 153 13.2 40 6.8 114 19.9 17 2.4 1 0.2 17 4.3 23 5.5 UNDECIDED163 6.5 23 3.0 58 7.7 63 8.2 1 0.4 42 5.4 28 6.0 42 6.7 38 6.5 27 3.6 107 6.7 27 2.9 41 3.3 19 14.0 45 3.8 8 1.3 37 6.4 9 1.3 9 2.4 87 20.9 NOOPINION14 0.6 5 0.7 2 0.2 2 0.2 1 0.5 5 0.6 2 0.5 2 0.3 1 0.2 5 0.7 6 0.4 2 0.3 5 0.4 3 2.0 1 0.1 1 0.10.1 1 0.10.10.1 7 1.6
  29. 29. MontanaUSSenateGeneralElectionSurvey,April1st-2nd,2014,2,490N,1.96%MoE,WeightedResults,MagellanStrategies,1685BoxelderSt.Suite300,Louisville,CO80027,303-861-8585 Table7-3 T7.IftheelectionfortheUnitedStatesSenatewerebeingheldtodayforwhomwouldyouvoteifthecandidateswereJohnWalsh,Democrat,SteveDaines,Republican,RogerRoots,Libertarianorsomeother candidate? DAINESIMGUSSENATEBALLOT ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL --------- FAV TOT --------- VERY FAV -------- SMWT FAV --------- UNFV TOT --------- VERY UNFV -------- SMWT UNFV --------- NO OPIN --------- WLSH TOT -------- DEF WLSH --------- PROB WLSH --------- DAIN TOT -------- DEF DAIN --------- PROB DAIN -------- ROGR ROOT --------- SOME OTHR --------- UNDE CIDE -------- TOTAL2490 100.0 1327 100.0 860 100.0 467 100.0 818 100.0 473 100.0 345 100.0 258 100.0 886 100.0 682 100.0 204 100.0 1207 100.0 920 100.0 288 100.0 108 100.0 111 100.0 163 100.0 STEVEDAINES1207 48.5 1054 79.5 778 90.6 276 59.1 48 5.8 1 0.2 47 13.5 74 28.6 1207 100.0 920 100.0 288 100.0 JOHNWALSH886 35.6 164 12.4 49 5.7 115 24.7 648 79.2 423 89.5 225 65.2 56 21.6 886 100.0 682 100.0 204 100.0 ROGERROOTS108 4.3 30 2.3 19 2.2 12 2.5 36 4.4 19 4.1 16 4.7 35 13.7 108 100.0 SOMEOTHERCANDIDATE111 4.5 31 2.3 5 0.6 26 5.5 59 7.2 22 4.6 37 10.7 13 4.9 111 100.0 DEFINITELYDAINES920 36.9 855 64.4 718 83.5 137 29.4 16 1.9 1 0.2 15 4.3 33 12.6 920 76.2 920 100.0 PROBABLYDAINES288 11.5 199 15.0 61 7.1 139 29.7 32 3.9 32 9.2 41 16.0 288 23.8 288 100.0 DEFINITELYWALSH682 27.4 125 9.4 44 5.1 81 17.4 523 63.9 360 76.1 163 47.1 26 10.0 682 77.0 682 100.0 PROBABLYWALSH204 8.2 39 2.9 5 0.6 34 7.3 125 15.3 63 13.3 62 18.0 30 11.6 204 23.0 204 100.0 UNDECIDED163 6.5 45 3.4 9 1.0 37 7.9 28 3.4 8 1.7 20 5.7 75 29.1 163 100.0 NOOPINION14 0.6 1 0.1 1 0.30.10.1 6 2.1
  30. 30. MontanaUSSenateGeneralElectionSurvey,April1st-2nd,2014,2,490N,1.96%MoE,WeightedResults,MagellanStrategies,1685BoxelderSt.Suite300,Louisville,CO80027,303-861-8585 Table8-1 T8.Doyouconsideryourselftobeveryconservative,conservative,moderateorliberalwhenitcomestofiscalissuesliketaxesandgovernmentspending? GENDER~MARITALAGEREPUBLICANSDEMOCRATSINDEPENDENTS -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL --------- MEN TOT --------- MARR MEN -------- SING MEN --------- WOM TOT --------- MARR WOM -------- SING WOM --------- 18-29 --------- 30-44 -------- 45-54 --------- 55-64 --------- 65 PLUS -------- REP TOT --------- REP MEN -------- REP WOM --------- DEM TOT --------- DEM MEN -------- DEM WOM --------- IND TOT --------- IND MEN -------- IND WOM --------- TOTAL2490 100.0 1195 100.0 915 100.0 267 100.0 1295 100.0 871 100.0 396 100.0 249 100.0 498 100.0 423 100.0 573 100.0 735 100.0 871 100.0 429 100.0 442 100.0 672 100.0 235 100.0 438 100.0 946 100.0 531 100.0 415 100.0 VERYCONSERVATIVE758 30.5 420 35.1 333 36.4 83 31.2 339 26.2 234 26.9 95 24.0 102 41.1 166 33.4 130 30.7 159 27.8 197 26.9 447 51.3 234 54.6 213 48.2 45 6.6 20 8.3 25 5.7 266 28.1 166 31.2 101 24.3 CONSERVATIVE744 29.9 374 31.3 302 33.0 71 26.6 370 28.6 258 29.6 98 24.8 52 21.1 176 35.3 124 29.3 157 27.4 232 31.5 348 40.0 164 38.2 185 41.8 80 11.9 28 11.9 52 11.9 315 33.3 182 34.2 133 32.1 MODERATE772 31.0 332 27.7 239 26.1 90 33.7 440 34.0 285 32.7 153 38.6 75 30.1 107 21.4 141 33.3 203 35.5 241 32.9 65 7.4 27 6.2 38 8.5 389 57.9 141 60.1 248 56.7 318 33.6 164 30.8 154 37.2 LIBERAL172 6.9 59 4.9 36 3.9 17 6.4 113 8.7 80 9.2 32 8.2 19 7.7 44 8.8 21 4.9 43 7.5 44 6.0 7 0.8 3 0.6 4 1.0 143 21.2 42 17.9 101 23.0 22 2.3 14 2.6 8 1.9 UNSURE NOOPINION 45 1.8 12 1.0 6 0.7 6 2.1 33 2.6 15 1.7 17 4.4 6 1.1 8 1.8 11 1.9 20 2.7 4 0.5 2 0.4 2 0.5 16 2.4 4 1.7 12 2.8 24 2.6 6 1.1 19 4.5
  31. 31. MontanaUSSenateGeneralElectionSurvey,April1st-2nd,2014,2,490N,1.96%MoE,WeightedResults,MagellanStrategies,1685BoxelderSt.Suite300,Louisville,CO80027,303-861-8585 Table8-2 T8.Doyouconsideryourselftobeveryconservative,conservative,moderateorliberalwhenitcomestofiscalissuesliketaxesandgovernmentspending? FISCALIDEOLOGYSOCIALIDEOLOGYVOTERMOODGENERICCONGRESSWALSHIMG ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL --------- VERY CONS --------- CONS ERVE -------- MODE RATE --------- LIB ERAL --------- VERY CONS -------- CONS ERVE --------- MODE RATE --------- LIB ERAL -------- RGHT DIR --------- WRNG TRCK --------- DEM CAND -------- REP CAND --------- OTHR CAND -------- FAV TOT --------- VERY FAV --------- SMWT FAV -------- UNFV TOT --------- VERY UNFV --------- SMWT UNFV -------- NO OPIN --------- TOTAL2490 100.0 758 100.0 744 100.0 772 100.0 172 100.0 768 100.0 477 100.0 620 100.0 581 100.0 738 100.0 1604 100.0 918 100.0 1237 100.0 136 100.0 1160 100.0 589 100.0 572 100.0 713 100.0 328 100.0 386 100.0 418 100.0 VERYCONSERVATIVE758 30.5 758 100.0 503 65.5 154 32.4 72 11.6 23 4.0 67 9.1 677 42.2 83 9.0 592 47.9 42 30.6 196 16.9 82 13.9 115 20.1 336 47.1 180 54.8 156 40.6 129 30.8 CONSERVATIVE744 29.9 744 100.0 204 26.6 262 54.9 211 34.0 63 10.8 107 14.5 600 37.4 144 15.7 496 40.1 48 35.1 281 24.2 108 18.4 173 30.3 241 33.8 89 27.1 152 39.6 160 38.4 MODERATE772 31.0 772 100.0 51 6.6 57 11.9 322 51.9 336 57.8 439 59.5 263 16.4 533 58.1 127 10.2 33 24.1 546 47.0 310 52.6 236 41.3 110 15.4 40 12.1 71 18.3 89 21.2 LIBERAL172 6.9 172 100.0 8 1.1 7 1.1 155 26.7 118 16.0 44 2.8 143 15.6 19 1.5 6 4.5 121 10.5 85 14.5 36 6.3 25 3.6 20 6.0 6 1.5 20 4.8 UNSURE NOOPINION 45 1.8 2 0.2 4 0.9 8 1.2 4 0.6 7 0.9 19 1.2 15 1.7 3 0.3 8 5.7 15 1.3 4 0.7 11 2.00.1 20 4.8
  32. 32. MontanaUSSenateGeneralElectionSurvey,April1st-2nd,2014,2,490N,1.96%MoE,WeightedResults,MagellanStrategies,1685BoxelderSt.Suite300,Louisville,CO80027,303-861-8585 Table8-3 T8.Doyouconsideryourselftobeveryconservative,conservative,moderateorliberalwhenitcomestofiscalissuesliketaxesandgovernmentspending? DAINESIMGUSSENATEBALLOT ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL --------- FAV TOT --------- VERY FAV -------- SMWT FAV --------- UNFV TOT --------- VERY UNFV -------- SMWT UNFV --------- NO OPIN --------- WLSH TOT -------- DEF WLSH --------- PROB WLSH --------- DAIN TOT -------- DEF DAIN --------- PROB DAIN -------- ROGR ROOT --------- SOME OTHR --------- UNDE CIDE -------- TOTAL2490 100.0 1327 100.0 860 100.0 467 100.0 818 100.0 473 100.0 345 100.0 258 100.0 886 100.0 682 100.0 204 100.0 1207 100.0 920 100.0 288 100.0 108 100.0 111 100.0 163 100.0 VERYCONSERVATIVE758 30.5 597 45.0 438 51.0 159 34.0 62 7.5 26 5.5 35 10.3 74 28.5 93 10.5 72 10.6 21 10.1 568 47.0 467 50.8 101 35.1 48 44.6 21 19.0 23 14.1 CONSERVATIVE744 29.9 463 34.9 314 36.5 149 31.9 160 19.6 68 14.3 92 26.8 96 37.0 138 15.6 92 13.4 47 23.0 466 38.6 353 38.4 113 39.3 39 36.0 40 36.3 58 35.4 MODERATE772 31.0 224 16.9 82 9.5 142 30.3 459 56.2 285 60.2 175 50.6 66 25.7 505 57.0 394 57.8 110 54.2 150 12.4 89 9.7 60 21.0 17 15.5 36 32.3 63 38.8 LIBERAL172 6.9 35 2.6 23 2.6 12 2.6 128 15.7 91 19.3 37 10.8 5 2.0 138 15.5 116 16.9 22 10.8 18 1.5 8 0.8 11 3.8 4 3.7 10 9.0 1 0.4 UNSURE NOOPINION 45 1.8 8 0.6 3 0.3 5 1.1 8 1.0 3 0.6 5 1.5 17 6.8 12 1.4 9 1.3 4 1.9 5 0.4 3 0.3 2 0.90.2 4 3.4 18 11.3
  33. 33. MontanaUSSenateGeneralElectionSurvey,April1st-2nd,2014,2,490N,1.96%MoE,WeightedResults,MagellanStrategies,1685BoxelderSt.Suite300,Louisville,CO80027,303-861-8585 Table9-1 T9.Doyouconsideryourselftobeveryconservative,conservative,moderateorliberalwhenitcomestosocialissueslikeabortionandgaymarriage? GENDER~MARITALAGEREPUBLICANSDEMOCRATSINDEPENDENTS -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL --------- MEN TOT --------- MARR MEN -------- SING MEN --------- WOM TOT --------- MARR WOM -------- SING WOM --------- 18-29 --------- 30-44 -------- 45-54 --------- 55-64 --------- 65 PLUS -------- REP TOT --------- REP MEN -------- REP WOM --------- DEM TOT --------- DEM MEN -------- DEM WOM --------- IND TOT --------- IND MEN -------- IND WOM --------- TOTAL2490 100.0 1195 100.0 915 100.0 267 100.0 1295 100.0 871 100.0 396 100.0 249 100.0 498 100.0 423 100.0 573 100.0 735 100.0 871 100.0 429 100.0 442 100.0 672 100.0 235 100.0 438 100.0 946 100.0 531 100.0 415 100.0 VERYCONSERVATIVE768 30.8 398 33.3 326 35.6 71 26.5 369 28.5 251 28.8 109 27.5 117 47.2 131 26.3 120 28.3 151 26.3 247 33.6 474 54.4 236 54.9 239 54.0 60 8.9 25 10.8 34 7.9 234 24.7 137 25.8 96 23.2 CONSERVATIVE477 19.2 270 22.6 209 22.8 59 22.0 207 16.0 126 14.5 67 17.0 48 19.4 92 18.4 91 21.5 98 17.1 145 19.7 223 25.6 119 27.7 104 23.4 59 8.7 20 8.7 38 8.7 196 20.7 130 24.5 66 15.8 MODERATE620 24.9 304 25.4 235 25.7 69 25.6 316 24.4 230 26.4 86 21.6 24 9.8 130 26.0 116 27.4 166 29.1 180 24.5 149 17.1 70 16.2 80 18.0 172 25.6 71 30.2 102 23.2 298 31.5 163 30.7 135 32.5 LIBERAL581 23.3 210 17.6 139 15.2 62 23.1 371 28.6 252 28.9 116 29.3 59 23.7 143 28.8 92 21.6 147 25.7 137 18.7 21 2.4 3 0.8 18 4.0 362 53.9 111 47.5 251 57.3 197 20.8 95 17.9 102 24.6 UNSURE NOOPINION 45 1.8 14 1.2 7 0.7 7 2.7 31 2.4 12 1.4 18 4.5 3 0.6 5 1.1 10 1.8 26 3.6 4 0.5 2 0.4 2 0.5 19 2.8 7 2.8 12 2.9 22 2.3 6 1.1 16 3.8
  34. 34. MontanaUSSenateGeneralElectionSurvey,April1st-2nd,2014,2,490N,1.96%MoE,WeightedResults,MagellanStrategies,1685BoxelderSt.Suite300,Louisville,CO80027,303-861-8585 Table9-2 T9.Doyouconsideryourselftobeveryconservative,conservative,moderateorliberalwhenitcomestosocialissueslikeabortionandgaymarriage? FISCALIDEOLOGYSOCIALIDEOLOGYVOTERMOODGENERICCONGRESSWALSHIMG ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL --------- VERY CONS --------- CONS ERVE -------- MODE RATE --------- LIB ERAL --------- VERY CONS -------- CONS ERVE --------- MODE RATE --------- LIB ERAL -------- RGHT DIR --------- WRNG TRCK --------- DEM CAND -------- REP CAND --------- OTHR CAND -------- FAV TOT --------- VERY FAV --------- SMWT FAV -------- UNFV TOT --------- VERY UNFV --------- SMWT UNFV -------- NO OPIN --------- TOTAL2490 100.0 758 100.0 744 100.0 772 100.0 172 100.0 768 100.0 477 100.0 620 100.0 581 100.0 738 100.0 1604 100.0 918 100.0 1237 100.0 136 100.0 1160 100.0 589 100.0 572 100.0 713 100.0 328 100.0 386 100.0 418 100.0 VERYCONSERVATIVE768 30.8 503 66.4 204 27.4 51 6.5 8 4.9 768 100.0 79 10.8 674 42.0 80 8.7 604 48.8 32 23.2 236 20.4 99 16.7 138 24.1 314 44.1 159 48.6 155 40.2 147 35.1 CONSERVATIVE477 19.2 154 20.4 262 35.2 57 7.3 477 100.0 65 8.8 389 24.3 88 9.6 337 27.2 24 17.7 145 12.5 51 8.7 94 16.4 189 26.5 74 22.5 115 29.9 83 19.8 MODERATE620 24.9 72 9.5 211 28.4 322 41.7 7 4.1 620 100.0 211 28.7 355 22.2 278 30.3 252 20.4 39 28.3 346 29.8 181 30.7 165 28.9 155 21.7 69 21.0 86 22.3 81 19.3 LIBERAL581 23.3 23 3.1 63 8.5 336 43.5 155 90.4 581 100.0 372 50.4 167 10.4 452 49.3 43 3.5 31 22.8 416 35.9 254 43.2 162 28.3 55 7.7 26 7.9 29 7.5 91 21.8 UNSURE NOOPINION 45 1.8 5 0.7 4 0.5 7 0.9 1 0.6 10 1.4 18 1.1 19 2.1 2 0.2 11 7.9 17 1.5 4 0.7 13 2.20.10.10.1 17 4.0
  35. 35. MontanaUSSenateGeneralElectionSurvey,April1st-2nd,2014,2,490N,1.96%MoE,WeightedResults,MagellanStrategies,1685BoxelderSt.Suite300,Louisville,CO80027,303-861-8585 Table9-3 T9.Doyouconsideryourselftobeveryconservative,conservative,moderateorliberalwhenitcomestosocialissueslikeabortionandgaymarriage? DAINESIMGUSSENATEBALLOT ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL --------- FAV TOT --------- VERY FAV -------- SMWT FAV --------- UNFV TOT --------- VERY UNFV -------- SMWT UNFV --------- NO OPIN --------- WLSH TOT -------- DEF WLSH --------- PROB WLSH --------- DAIN TOT -------- DEF DAIN --------- PROB DAIN -------- ROGR ROOT --------- SOME OTHR --------- UNDE CIDE -------- TOTAL2490 100.0 1327 100.0 860 100.0 467 100.0 818 100.0 473 100.0 345 100.0 258 100.0 886 100.0 682 100.0 204 100.0 1207 100.0 920 100.0 288 100.0 108 100.0 111 100.0 163 100.0 VERYCONSERVATIVE768 30.8 589 44.4 440 51.2 149 31.9 63 7.7 20 4.2 43 12.5 98 37.9 107 12.0 77 11.4 29 14.4 560 46.4 448 48.7 112 39.1 36 33.3 18 16.5 42 25.6 CONSERVATIVE477 19.2 316 23.8 222 25.8 95 20.2 79 9.7 29 6.1 50 14.6 69 26.7 76 8.6 52 7.6 24 11.8 340 28.2 274 29.7 67 23.2 18 16.9 12 10.7 28 17.4 MODERATE620 24.9 309 23.3 156 18.2 152 32.6 258 31.5 136 28.7 122 35.4 31 11.9 261 29.4 202 29.6 59 28.9 239 19.8 172 18.7 67 23.4 30 27.3 47 42.0 42 25.6 LIBERAL581 23.3 99 7.5 37 4.3 62 13.3 412 50.3 286 60.5 125 36.4 48 18.4 426 48.0 340 49.8 86 42.0 63 5.2 24 2.6 39 13.5 24 22.4 29 26.1 38 23.2 UNSURE NOOPINION 45 1.8 13 1.0 4 0.5 9 2.0 7 0.8 3 0.5 4 1.2 13 5.2 17 1.9 11 1.6 6 2.9 5 0.4 2 0.3 2 0.9 5 4.7 13 8.2
  36. 36. MontanaUSSenateGeneralElectionSurvey,April1st-2nd,2014,2,490N,1.96%MoE,WeightedResults,MagellanStrategies,1685BoxelderSt.Suite300,Louisville,CO80027,303-861-8585 Table10-1 T10.Generallyspeaking,doyouthinkofyourselfasaRepublican,aDemocratorsomethingelse? GENDER~MARITALAGEREPUBLICANSDEMOCRATSINDEPENDENTS -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL --------- MEN TOT --------- MARR MEN -------- SING MEN --------- WOM TOT --------- MARR WOM -------- SING WOM --------- 18-29 --------- 30-44 -------- 45-54 --------- 55-64 --------- 65 PLUS -------- REP TOT --------- REP MEN -------- REP WOM --------- DEM TOT --------- DEM MEN -------- DEM WOM --------- IND TOT --------- IND MEN -------- IND WOM --------- TOTAL2490 100.0 1195 100.0 915 100.0 267 100.0 1295 100.0 871 100.0 396 100.0 249 100.0 498 100.0 423 100.0 573 100.0 735 100.0 871 100.0 429 100.0 442 100.0 672 100.0 235 100.0 438 100.0 946 100.0 531 100.0 415 100.0 TOTALREPUBLICAN871 35.0 429 35.9 356 38.9 72 27.1 442 34.1 316 36.3 117 29.5 91 36.5 175 35.1 153 36.0 176 30.8 274 37.4 871 100.0 429 100.0 442 100.0 TOTALDEMOCRAT672 27.0 235 19.6 152 16.6 75 28.1 438 33.8 283 32.5 153 38.7 52 20.7 115 23.2 106 25.1 172 30.1 223 30.3 672 100.0 235 100.0 438 100.0 SOMETHINGELSE946 38.0 531 44.5 407 44.4 120 44.9 415 32.0 272 31.2 126 31.9 107 42.8 208 41.8 164 38.8 224 39.1 237 32.3 946 100.0 531 100.0 415 100.0 STRONGREP604 24.3 286 23.9 242 26.4 44 16.4 318 24.6 239 27.4 70 17.7 83 33.4 113 22.7 106 25.0 124 21.6 177 24.1 604 69.3 286 66.6 318 71.9 NOTSOSTRONGREP267 10.7 143 12.0 114 12.5 29 10.7 124 9.6 77 8.9 47 11.8 8 3.0 62 12.4 47 11.0 52 9.1 98 13.3 267 30.7 143 33.4 124 28.1 STRONGDEM446 17.9 145 12.2 93 10.2 51 19.0 301 23.2 188 21.6 112 28.2 30 12.1 64 12.9 66 15.6 130 22.6 153 20.9 446 66.4 145 62.0 301 68.7 NOTSOSTRONGDEM226 9.1 89 7.5 59 6.4 24 9.1 137 10.6 95 10.9 41 10.5 21 8.6 51 10.3 40 9.6 43 7.5 70 9.5 226 33.6 89 38.0 137 31.3
  37. 37. MontanaUSSenateGeneralElectionSurvey,April1st-2nd,2014,2,490N,1.96%MoE,WeightedResults,MagellanStrategies,1685BoxelderSt.Suite300,Louisville,CO80027,303-861-8585 Table10-2 T10.Generallyspeaking,doyouthinkofyourselfasaRepublican,aDemocratorsomethingelse? FISCALIDEOLOGYSOCIALIDEOLOGYVOTERMOODGENERICCONGRESSWALSHIMG ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL --------- VERY CONS --------- CONS ERVE -------- MODE RATE --------- LIB ERAL --------- VERY CONS -------- CONS ERVE --------- MODE RATE --------- LIB ERAL -------- RGHT DIR --------- WRNG TRCK --------- DEM CAND -------- REP CAND --------- OTHR CAND -------- FAV TOT --------- VERY FAV --------- SMWT FAV -------- UNFV TOT --------- VERY UNFV --------- SMWT UNFV -------- NO OPIN --------- TOTAL2490 100.0 758 100.0 744 100.0 772 100.0 172 100.0 768 100.0 477 100.0 620 100.0 581 100.0 738 100.0 1604 100.0 918 100.0 1237 100.0 136 100.0 1160 100.0 589 100.0 572 100.0 713 100.0 328 100.0 386 100.0 418 100.0 TOTALREPUBLICAN871 35.0 447 59.0 348 46.9 65 8.4 7 4.1 474 61.8 223 46.7 149 24.1 21 3.6 68 9.2 785 49.0 57 6.2 783 63.3 8 5.6 253 21.8 90 15.2 163 28.6 379 53.1 162 49.4 217 56.3 147 35.1 TOTALDEMOCRAT672 27.0 45 5.9 80 10.7 389 50.4 143 83.1 60 7.8 59 12.3 172 27.8 362 62.4 441 59.7 178 11.1 581 63.2 54 4.4 6 4.7 497 42.8 306 52.0 191 33.4 72 10.1 34 10.4 38 9.9 77 18.4 SOMETHINGELSE946 38.0 266 35.1 315 42.4 318 41.2 22 12.9 234 30.4 196 41.0 298 48.1 197 34.0 229 31.0 640 39.9 281 30.6 400 32.3 122 89.6 410 35.4 193 32.8 217 38.0 262 36.8 132 40.2 130 33.8 194 46.5 STRONGREP604 24.3 357 47.0 227 30.6 12 1.6 7 3.8 378 49.2 154 32.2 60 9.7 12 2.1 42 5.7 551 34.3 32 3.5 558 45.1 1 0.9 171 14.7 64 10.8 107 18.8 272 38.2 127 38.6 146 37.8 95 22.7 NOTSOSTRONGREP267 10.7 91 12.0 121 16.3 52 6.80.2 96 12.5 69 14.5 89 14.4 9 1.5 26 3.5 234 14.6 25 2.7 225 18.2 6 4.7 82 7.1 26 4.4 56 9.8 107 14.9 35 10.8 71 18.5 52 12.4 STRONGDEM446 17.9 27 3.6 40 5.4 244 31.6 125 72.7 39 5.0 21 4.4 95 15.3 280 48.2 320 43.3 90 5.6 407 44.3 18 1.4 4 3.0 358 30.8 238 40.5 119 20.9 32 4.4 18 5.4 14 3.6 42 10.1 NOTSOSTRONGDEM226 9.1 17 2.3 40 5.3 145 18.8 18 10.4 21 2.8 38 7.9 78 12.6 82 14.2 121 16.4 88 5.5 174 18.9 37 3.0 2 1.7 140 12.0 68 11.6 71 12.5 41 5.7 16 4.9 24 6.3 35 8.3
  38. 38. MontanaUSSenateGeneralElectionSurvey,April1st-2nd,2014,2,490N,1.96%MoE,WeightedResults,MagellanStrategies,1685BoxelderSt.Suite300,Louisville,CO80027,303-861-8585 Table10-3 T10.Generallyspeaking,doyouthinkofyourselfasaRepublican,aDemocratorsomethingelse? DAINESIMGUSSENATEBALLOT ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL --------- FAV TOT --------- VERY FAV -------- SMWT FAV --------- UNFV TOT --------- VERY UNFV -------- SMWT UNFV --------- NO OPIN --------- WLSH TOT -------- DEF WLSH --------- PROB WLSH --------- DAIN TOT -------- DEF DAIN --------- PROB DAIN -------- ROGR ROOT --------- SOME OTHR --------- UNDE CIDE -------- TOTAL2490 100.0 1327 100.0 860 100.0 467 100.0 818 100.0 473 100.0 345 100.0 258 100.0 886 100.0 682 100.0 204 100.0 1207 100.0 920 100.0 288 100.0 108 100.0 111 100.0 163 100.0 TOTALREPUBLICAN871 35.0 688 51.8 513 59.7 175 37.4 64 7.9 18 3.9 46 13.4 89 34.4 77 8.6 57 8.4 19 9.4 731 60.6 595 64.7 136 47.4 5 4.6 14 12.6 39 24.2 TOTALDEMOCRAT672 27.0 161 12.1 57 6.6 104 22.3 429 52.5 273 57.8 156 45.3 61 23.6 549 61.9 441 64.6 108 53.0 68 5.6 29 3.2 38 13.3 5 4.2 24 21.8 26 15.7 SOMETHINGELSE946 38.0 478 36.0 290 33.7 188 40.3 324 39.6 181 38.3 143 41.4 109 42.0 261 29.4 184 27.0 76 37.6 408 33.8 296 32.1 113 39.2 98 91.1 73 65.6 98 60.1 STRONGREP604 24.3 487 36.7 395 45.9 92 19.7 33 4.0 10 2.1 23 6.7 64 24.7 51 5.7 43 6.3 8 3.9 512 42.4 443 48.2 69 23.9 3 2.4 6 5.1 29 17.9 NOTSOSTRONGREP267 10.7 201 15.1 118 13.7 83 17.7 31 3.8 8 1.8 23 6.6 25 9.7 26 2.9 15 2.1 11 5.5 219 18.2 152 16.5 68 23.6 2 2.2 8 7.5 10 6.3 STRONGDEM446 17.9 86 6.5 29 3.3 57 12.2 316 38.6 220 46.6 96 27.8 31 12.0 392 44.3 339 49.7 53 26.1 22 1.9 4 0.5 18 6.2 3 2.9 20 17.8 7 4.2 NOTSOSTRONGDEM226 9.1 75 5.7 28 3.3 47 10.1 113 13.9 53 11.2 60 17.5 30 11.6 156 17.6 101 14.9 55 26.9 45 3.7 25 2.7 20 7.1 1 1.3 4 4.0 19 11.4
  39. 39. MontanaUSSenateGeneralElectionSurvey,April1st-2nd,2014,2,490N,1.96%MoE,WeightedResults,MagellanStrategies,1685BoxelderSt.Suite300,Louisville,CO80027,303-861-8585 Table11-1 T11.Forstatisticalpurposes,areyouamanorawoman? GENDER~MARITALAGEREPUBLICANSDEMOCRATSINDEPENDENTS -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL --------- MEN TOT --------- MARR MEN -------- SING MEN --------- WOM TOT --------- MARR WOM -------- SING WOM --------- 18-29 --------- 30-44 -------- 45-54 --------- 55-64 --------- 65 PLUS -------- REP TOT --------- REP MEN -------- REP WOM --------- DEM TOT --------- DEM MEN -------- DEM WOM --------- IND TOT --------- IND MEN -------- IND WOM --------- TOTAL2490 100.0 1195 100.0 915 100.0 267 100.0 1295 100.0 871 100.0 396 100.0 249 100.0 498 100.0 423 100.0 573 100.0 735 100.0 871 100.0 429 100.0 442 100.0 672 100.0 235 100.0 438 100.0 946 100.0 531 100.0 415 100.0 FEMALE1295 52.0 1295 100.0 871 100.0 396 100.0 143 57.5 221 44.4 242 57.2 293 51.2 390 53.0 442 50.7 442 100.0 438 65.1 438 100.0 415 43.9 415 100.0 MALE1195 48.0 1195 100.0 915 100.0 267 100.0 106 42.5 277 55.6 181 42.8 280 48.8 345 47.0 429 49.3 429 100.0 235 34.9 235 100.0 531 56.1 531 100.0
  40. 40. MontanaUSSenateGeneralElectionSurvey,April1st-2nd,2014,2,490N,1.96%MoE,WeightedResults,MagellanStrategies,1685BoxelderSt.Suite300,Louisville,CO80027,303-861-8585 Table11-2 T11.Forstatisticalpurposes,areyouamanorawoman? FISCALIDEOLOGYSOCIALIDEOLOGYVOTERMOODGENERICCONGRESSWALSHIMG ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL --------- VERY CONS --------- CONS ERVE -------- MODE RATE --------- LIB ERAL --------- VERY CONS -------- CONS ERVE --------- MODE RATE --------- LIB ERAL -------- RGHT DIR --------- WRNG TRCK --------- DEM CAND -------- REP CAND --------- OTHR CAND -------- FAV TOT --------- VERY FAV --------- SMWT FAV -------- UNFV TOT --------- VERY UNFV --------- SMWT UNFV -------- NO OPIN --------- TOTAL2490 100.0 758 100.0 744 100.0 772 100.0 172 100.0 768 100.0 477 100.0 620 100.0 581 100.0 738 100.0 1604 100.0 918 100.0 1237 100.0 136 100.0 1160 100.0 589 100.0 572 100.0 713 100.0 328 100.0 386 100.0 418 100.0 FEMALE1295 52.0 339 44.7 370 49.7 440 57.0 113 65.8 369 48.1 207 43.5 316 51.0 371 63.9 401 54.3 805 50.2 511 55.6 612 49.5 65 48.0 586 50.5 292 49.7 293 51.3 347 48.7 178 54.4 169 43.8 255 61.1 MALE1195 48.0 420 55.3 374 50.3 332 43.0 59 34.2 398 51.9 270 56.5 304 49.0 210 36.1 337 45.7 799 49.8 408 44.4 625 50.5 71 52.0 575 49.5 296 50.3 278 48.7 366 51.3 150 45.6 217 56.2 163 38.9
  41. 41. MontanaUSSenateGeneralElectionSurvey,April1st-2nd,2014,2,490N,1.96%MoE,WeightedResults,MagellanStrategies,1685BoxelderSt.Suite300,Louisville,CO80027,303-861-8585 Table11-3 T11.Forstatisticalpurposes,areyouamanorawoman? DAINESIMGUSSENATEBALLOT ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL --------- FAV TOT --------- VERY FAV -------- SMWT FAV --------- UNFV TOT --------- VERY UNFV -------- SMWT UNFV --------- NO OPIN --------- WLSH TOT -------- DEF WLSH --------- PROB WLSH --------- DAIN TOT -------- DEF DAIN --------- PROB DAIN -------- ROGR ROOT --------- SOME OTHR --------- UNDE CIDE -------- TOTAL2490 100.0 1327 100.0 860 100.0 467 100.0 818 100.0 473 100.0 345 100.0 258 100.0 886 100.0 682 100.0 204 100.0 1207 100.0 920 100.0 288 100.0 108 100.0 111 100.0 163 100.0 FEMALE1295 52.0 657 49.5 415 48.2 243 51.9 406 49.6 224 47.4 182 52.8 168 65.0 477 53.8 352 51.6 124 60.9 590 48.9 431 46.9 159 55.4 33 30.2 62 55.7 124 76.2 MALE1195 48.0 670 50.5 445 51.8 225 48.1 412 50.4 249 52.6 163 47.2 90 35.0 410 46.2 330 48.4 80 39.1 617 51.1 489 53.1 128 44.6 75 69.8 49 44.3 39 23.8
  42. 42. MontanaUSSenateGeneralElectionSurvey,April1st-2nd,2014,2,490N,1.96%MoE,WeightedResults,MagellanStrategies,1685BoxelderSt.Suite300,Louisville,CO80027,303-861-8585 Table12-1 T12.Whichofthefollowingagegroupsappliestoyou? GENDER~MARITALAGEREPUBLICANSDEMOCRATSINDEPENDENTS -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL --------- MEN TOT --------- MARR MEN -------- SING MEN --------- WOM TOT --------- MARR WOM -------- SING WOM --------- 18-29 --------- 30-44 -------- 45-54 --------- 55-64 --------- 65 PLUS -------- REP TOT --------- REP MEN -------- REP WOM --------- DEM TOT --------- DEM MEN -------- DEM WOM --------- IND TOT --------- IND MEN -------- IND WOM --------- TOTAL2490 100.0 1195 100.0 915 100.0 267 100.0 1295 100.0 871 100.0 396 100.0 249 100.0 498 100.0 423 100.0 573 100.0 735 100.0 871 100.0 429 100.0 442 100.0 672 100.0 235 100.0 438 100.0 946 100.0 531 100.0 415 100.0 18-29249 10.0 106 8.9 83 9.1 23 8.5 143 11.1 58 6.6 64 16.2 249 100.0 91 10.4 45 10.4 46 10.4 52 7.7 9 3.6 43 9.8 107 11.3 53 9.9 54 13.0 30-44498 20.0 277 23.2 212 23.1 58 21.5 221 17.1 184 21.1 37 9.3 498 100.0 175 20.0 106 24.6 69 15.6 115 17.2 41 17.4 75 17.1 208 22.0 131 24.6 77 18.7 45-54423 17.0 181 15.2 140 15.3 41 15.2 242 18.7 196 22.5 46 11.7 423 100.0 153 17.5 67 15.7 85 19.3 106 15.8 29 12.3 78 17.7 164 17.4 85 16.0 79 19.1 55-64573 23.0 280 23.4 208 22.7 70 26.0 293 22.6 222 25.5 68 17.1 573 100.0 176 20.2 75 17.4 101 22.9 172 25.6 71 30.1 102 23.3 224 23.7 134 25.3 90 21.7 65PLUS735 29.5 345 28.9 269 29.3 76 28.4 390 30.1 208 23.9 180 45.3 735 100.0 274 31.5 135 31.5 139 31.5 223 33.1 84 35.9 139 31.7 237 25.1 126 23.7 111 26.9 UNSURE NOOPINION 12 0.5 6 0.5 4 0.4 1 0.4 6 0.5 3 0.4 2 0.5 3 0.3 2 0.4 1 0.2 4 0.6 2 0.7 2 0.5 6 0.6 3 0.5 3 0.7
  43. 43. MontanaUSSenateGeneralElectionSurvey,April1st-2nd,2014,2,490N,1.96%MoE,WeightedResults,MagellanStrategies,1685BoxelderSt.Suite300,Louisville,CO80027,303-861-8585 Table12-2 T12.Whichofthefollowingagegroupsappliestoyou? FISCALIDEOLOGYSOCIALIDEOLOGYVOTERMOODGENERICCONGRESSWALSHIMG ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL --------- VERY CONS --------- CONS ERVE -------- MODE RATE --------- LIB ERAL --------- VERY CONS -------- CONS ERVE --------- MODE RATE --------- LIB ERAL -------- RGHT DIR --------- WRNG TRCK --------- DEM CAND -------- REP CAND --------- OTHR CAND -------- FAV TOT --------- VERY FAV --------- SMWT FAV -------- UNFV TOT --------- VERY UNFV --------- SMWT UNFV -------- NO OPIN --------- TOTAL2490 100.0 758 100.0 744 100.0 772 100.0 172 100.0 768 100.0 477 100.0 620 100.0 581 100.0 738 100.0 1604 100.0 918 100.0 1237 100.0 136 100.0 1160 100.0 589 100.0 572 100.0 713 100.0 328 100.0 386 100.0 418 100.0 18-29249 10.0 102 13.5 52 7.1 75 9.7 19 11.2 117 15.3 48 10.1 24 3.9 59 10.2 44 5.9 197 12.3 30 3.3 154 12.4 18 13.3 57 5.0 31 5.3 26 4.6 92 12.9 75 22.9 17 4.4 85 20.3 30-44498 20.0 166 21.9 176 23.6 107 13.8 44 25.7 131 17.0 92 19.2 130 20.9 143 24.7 151 20.4 318 19.8 165 18.0 242 19.6 44 32.2 171 14.8 90 15.2 82 14.3 131 18.3 61 18.7 69 18.0 108 25.9 45-54423 17.0 130 17.1 124 16.7 141 18.3 21 12.2 120 15.6 91 19.1 116 18.7 92 15.8 123 16.7 272 17.0 153 16.7 236 19.1 15 10.7 206 17.8 85 14.5 121 21.2 117 16.5 50 15.2 68 17.6 61 14.6 55-64573 23.0 159 21.0 157 21.1 203 26.3 43 25.0 151 19.6 98 20.6 166 26.9 147 25.4 206 27.9 344 21.5 257 28.0 252 20.4 25 18.4 322 27.8 166 28.2 156 27.3 160 22.5 67 20.4 94 24.3 66 15.9 65PLUS735 29.5 197 26.0 232 31.2 241 31.3 44 25.7 247 32.2 145 30.3 180 29.0 137 23.6 211 28.6 466 29.1 305 33.2 349 28.2 34 25.3 396 34.2 213 36.1 184 32.1 207 29.1 73 22.2 135 34.9 97 23.3 UNSURE NOOPINION 12 0.5 3 0.4 3 0.4 5 0.6 1 0.3 2 0.3 3 0.7 4 0.6 3 0.4 3 0.4 7 0.4 8 0.9 4 0.3 7 0.6 4 0.7 3 0.5 5 0.7 2 0.6 3 0.8 1 0.1
  44. 44. MontanaUSSenateGeneralElectionSurvey,April1st-2nd,2014,2,490N,1.96%MoE,WeightedResults,MagellanStrategies,1685BoxelderSt.Suite300,Louisville,CO80027,303-861-8585 Table12-3 T12.Whichofthefollowingagegroupsappliestoyou? DAINESIMGUSSENATEBALLOT ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL --------- FAV TOT --------- VERY FAV -------- SMWT FAV --------- UNFV TOT --------- VERY UNFV -------- SMWT UNFV --------- NO OPIN --------- WLSH TOT -------- DEF WLSH --------- PROB WLSH --------- DAIN TOT -------- DEF DAIN --------- PROB DAIN -------- ROGR ROOT --------- SOME OTHR --------- UNDE CIDE -------- TOTAL2490 100.0 1327 100.0 860 100.0 467 100.0 818 100.0 473 100.0 345 100.0 258 100.0 886 100.0 682 100.0 204 100.0 1207 100.0 920 100.0 288 100.0 108 100.0 111 100.0 163 100.0 18-29249 10.0 145 10.9 132 15.4 13 2.7 20 2.4 20 5.8 84 32.5 49 5.6 34 5.0 15 7.4 145 12.0 108 11.7 37 13.0 22 20.4 32 19.8 30-44498 20.0 231 17.4 137 16.0 94 20.0 159 19.4 94 19.9 65 18.8 69 26.5 157 17.7 113 16.6 43 21.2 241 20.0 179 19.5 62 21.6 43 39.4 25 22.0 30 18.4 45-54423 17.0 239 18.0 147 17.1 92 19.8 139 16.9 87 18.3 52 15.1 33 12.9 140 15.8 109 16.0 31 15.2 222 18.4 163 17.7 59 20.5 13 12.1 19 16.9 29 17.8 55-64573 23.0 289 21.8 178 20.6 111 23.8 247 30.3 157 33.1 91 26.3 21 8.3 249 28.1 198 29.0 51 25.1 249 20.7 188 20.5 61 21.3 13 11.9 32 28.8 26 16.0 65PLUS735 29.5 416 31.4 264 30.7 153 32.7 249 30.5 135 28.5 115 33.2 49 19.0 287 32.3 224 32.8 63 31.0 347 28.7 280 30.4 67 23.4 16 15.1 33 29.9 45 27.4 UNSURE NOOPINION 12 0.5 7 0.5 2 0.3 5 1.0 4 0.4 1 0.2 3 0.8 2 0.7 4 0.5 4 0.60.1 3 0.3 3 0.3 1 0.3 1 1.0 3 2.4 1 0.6
  45. 45. MontanaUSSenateGeneralElectionSurvey,April1st-2nd,2014,2,490N,1.96%MoE,WeightedResults,MagellanStrategies,1685BoxelderSt.Suite300,Louisville,CO80027,303-861-8585 Table13-1 T13.Whatisyourmaritalstatus? GENDER~MARITALAGEREPUBLICANSDEMOCRATSINDEPENDENTS -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL --------- MEN TOT --------- MARR MEN -------- SING MEN --------- WOM TOT --------- MARR WOM -------- SING WOM --------- 18-29 --------- 30-44 -------- 45-54 --------- 55-64 --------- 65 PLUS -------- REP TOT --------- REP MEN -------- REP WOM --------- DEM TOT --------- DEM MEN -------- DEM WOM --------- IND TOT --------- IND MEN -------- IND WOM --------- TOTAL2490 100.0 1195 100.0 915 100.0 267 100.0 1295 100.0 871 100.0 396 100.0 249 100.0 498 100.0 423 100.0 573 100.0 735 100.0 871 100.0 429 100.0 442 100.0 672 100.0 235 100.0 438 100.0 946 100.0 531 100.0 415 100.0 MARRIED1786 71.7 915 76.6 915 100.0 871 67.3 871 100.0 141 56.7 396 79.5 335 79.2 430 75.1 476 64.9 672 77.1 356 82.9 316 71.5 435 64.8 152 65.0 283 64.7 679 71.7 407 76.6 272 65.5 WIDOWED237 9.5 50 4.1 50 18.5 187 14.5 187 47.3 11 4.3 19 3.8 12 2.9 26 4.6 166 22.6 88 10.1 15 3.5 73 16.5 81 12.1 14 5.9 68 15.4 68 7.1 21 3.9 47 11.3 SEPARATED22 0.9 15 1.3 15 5.6 8 0.6 8 1.9 4 1.6 1 0.3 3 0.6 8 1.4 6 0.9 6 0.7 4 1.0 1 0.3 6 0.9 3 1.2 3 0.7 11 1.1 8 1.4 3 0.7 DIVORCED178 7.1 85 7.1 85 31.9 93 7.2 93 23.4 15 6.0 18 3.5 35 8.3 48 8.4 62 8.5 34 3.9 13 2.9 21 4.8 74 11.1 28 12.1 46 10.5 70 7.4 44 8.4 26 6.2 SINGLE187 7.5 108 9.0 108 40.3 79 6.1 79 19.9 49 19.8 51 10.3 26 6.3 42 7.4 17 2.4 58 6.7 40 9.2 19 4.2 44 6.6 25 10.6 19 4.4 84 8.9 43 8.1 41 9.9 UNMARRIED40 1.6 10 0.8 10 3.7 30 2.3 30 7.5 8 3.1 5 1.0 11 2.5 13 2.2 3 0.4 3 0.4 1 0.2 3 0.6 23 3.4 5 2.2 17 4.0 14 1.4 4 0.7 10 2.3 UNSURE NOOPINION 40 1.6 13 1.1 28 2.1 21 8.5 8 1.5 1 0.3 5 0.9 3 0.3 10 1.2 1 0.2 9 2.1 9 1.3 7 3.1 1 0.3 21 2.3 5 0.9 17 4.0
  46. 46. MontanaUSSenateGeneralElectionSurvey,April1st-2nd,2014,2,490N,1.96%MoE,WeightedResults,MagellanStrategies,1685BoxelderSt.Suite300,Louisville,CO80027,303-861-8585 Table13-2 T13.Whatisyourmaritalstatus? FISCALIDEOLOGYSOCIALIDEOLOGYVOTERMOODGENERICCONGRESSWALSHIMG ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL --------- VERY CONS --------- CONS ERVE -------- MODE RATE --------- LIB ERAL --------- VERY CONS -------- CONS ERVE --------- MODE RATE --------- LIB ERAL -------- RGHT DIR --------- WRNG TRCK --------- DEM CAND -------- REP CAND --------- OTHR CAND -------- FAV TOT --------- VERY FAV --------- SMWT FAV -------- UNFV TOT --------- VERY UNFV --------- SMWT UNFV -------- NO OPIN --------- TOTAL2490 100.0 758 100.0 744 100.0 772 100.0 172 100.0 768 100.0 477 100.0 620 100.0 581 100.0 738 100.0 1604 100.0 918 100.0 1237 100.0 136 100.0 1160 100.0 589 100.0 572 100.0 713 100.0 328 100.0 386 100.0 418 100.0 MARRIED1786 71.7 567 74.7 559 75.2 524 67.9 115 67.2 576 75.1 335 70.2 465 75.0 391 67.3 521 70.6 1170 73.0 631 68.7 944 76.3 88 64.5 818 70.5 427 72.5 391 68.4 560 78.5 250 76.1 310 80.5 275 65.9 WIDOWED237 9.5 66 8.7 66 8.8 83 10.7 11 6.7 86 11.3 49 10.3 55 8.9 34 5.8 79 10.7 134 8.4 99 10.8 93 7.5 15 11.0 134 11.5 56 9.5 78 13.6 34 4.7 5 1.4 29 7.5 39 9.3 SEPARATED22 0.9 3 0.4 7 1.0 11 1.4 2 0.9 7 0.9 2 0.5 8 1.3 5 0.9 6 0.8 15 1.0 6 0.6 13 1.1 1 0.5 11 0.9 9 1.5 2 0.3 8 1.2 1 0.4 7 1.9 3 0.6 DIVORCED178 7.1 44 5.8 34 4.5 72 9.3 24 13.8 39 5.0 33 6.9 36 5.9 64 11.0 55 7.5 109 6.8 86 9.3 73 5.9 11 8.0 94 8.1 41 6.9 53 9.3 48 6.7 29 8.9 19 4.9 25 6.0 SINGLE187 7.5 63 8.3 51 6.8 55 7.2 12 6.7 45 5.9 42 8.8 44 7.1 50 8.6 52 7.1 125 7.8 58 6.3 83 6.7 15 11.0 72 6.2 43 7.3 30 5.2 38 5.4 20 6.2 18 4.7 53 12.7 UNMARRIED40 1.6 3 0.4 12 1.7 23 2.9 1 0.6 3 0.40.1 10 1.6 25 4.4 22 2.9 17 1.1 27 2.9 5 0.4 6 4.6 19 1.6 11 1.9 8 1.3 1 0.1 1 0.3 20 4.8 UNSURE NOOPINION 40 1.6 13 1.7 15 2.0 5 0.6 7 4.0 11 1.5 16 3.3 1 0.1 12 2.1 4 0.5 33 2.1 13 1.4 27 2.2 1 0.5 14 1.2 2 0.4 11 2.0 24 3.4 22 6.8 2 0.5 2 0.6
  47. 47. MontanaUSSenateGeneralElectionSurvey,April1st-2nd,2014,2,490N,1.96%MoE,WeightedResults,MagellanStrategies,1685BoxelderSt.Suite300,Louisville,CO80027,303-861-8585 Table13-3 T13.Whatisyourmaritalstatus? DAINESIMGUSSENATEBALLOT ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL --------- FAV TOT --------- VERY FAV -------- SMWT FAV --------- UNFV TOT --------- VERY UNFV -------- SMWT UNFV --------- NO OPIN --------- WLSH TOT -------- DEF WLSH --------- PROB WLSH --------- DAIN TOT -------- DEF DAIN --------- PROB DAIN -------- ROGR ROOT --------- SOME OTHR --------- UNDE CIDE -------- TOTAL2490 100.0 1327 100.0 860 100.0 467 100.0 818 100.0 473 100.0 345 100.0 258 100.0 886 100.0 682 100.0 204 100.0 1207 100.0 920 100.0 288 100.0 108 100.0 111 100.0 163 100.0 MARRIED1786 71.7 979 73.8 642 74.7 337 72.2 599 73.3 356 75.3 243 70.4 159 61.7 616 69.5 486 71.2 130 63.9 916 75.9 701 76.2 216 75.0 66 61.1 80 72.1 103 63.3 WIDOWED237 9.5 117 8.9 62 7.3 55 11.8 62 7.5 20 4.3 41 12.0 33 12.7 96 10.8 65 9.6 31 15.0 88 7.3 68 7.4 20 6.9 8 7.0 17 15.3 22 13.6 SEPARATED22 0.9 13 1.0 8 0.9 5 1.2 7 0.9 1 0.3 6 1.7 1 0.6 7 0.8 6 0.9 1 0.4 8 0.7 6 0.7 2 0.7 4 3.6 1 1.3 1 0.5 DIVORCED178 7.1 82 6.2 49 5.7 34 7.2 76 9.3 48 10.2 28 8.1 12 4.6 79 8.9 57 8.4 22 10.7 70 5.8 46 4.9 24 8.5 8 7.3 8 7.3 13 7.8 SINGLE187 7.5 100 7.5 73 8.5 27 5.7 45 5.5 28 5.9 17 4.9 41 16.0 53 5.9 43 6.3 9 4.6 96 8.0 73 7.9 23 8.1 14 13.4 3 2.2 20 12.1 UNMARRIED40 1.6 8 0.6 2 0.2 6 1.3 16 2.0 8 1.6 9 2.5 10 4.0 25 2.9 21 3.0 5 2.3 3 0.3 2 0.2 2 0.5 7 6.80.3 3 1.9 UNSURE NOOPINION 40 1.6 27 2.0 24 2.8 3 0.6 12 1.5 11 2.4 1 0.3 1 0.4 11 1.2 4 0.7 6 3.1 26 2.1 25 2.7 1 0.3 1 0.7 2 1.5 1 0.8

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