NERVOUS grain and oilseed markets rose above last year’s summer highs to near three-year peaks toward the end of first quarter 2010 – though wheat and soya prices are backtracking steeply as we go to press.

1. Digital Re-print - March | April 2011
Globalfeed markets - March | April 2011
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2. COMMODITIES
GlOBal
GraIN & FEED MarKETS
Victam Booth B051
Victam International 2011
May 3-5, Cologne, Germany
Two Cross-Yoke Plansifters in a wheat mill
Every issue GFMT’s market analyst John Buckley reviews with 15 passages in South Germany
world trading conditions which are impacting the full range of
commodities used in food and feed production. His observations
will influence your decision-making.
Cross-Yoke Plansifter
High Performance · Compact · Flexible
Trade pins hopes on 2011
Fast Assembly · Low Weight · Self-Balanced
US maize prices
Energy Saving · Optimal PCF
rose to their highest Flour Mills · Rebolting · Corn & Rice Milling
level since June crop rebound Starch & Protein · Petfood · Pellets · Biofuels
500 installed worldwide
2008 in early Reinhard Rüter
N
Maschinenbau e.Kfm.
March as traders ERVOUS grain and oilseed markets blending, suggest the bullish impact of this factor An der Kapelle 27
rose above last year’s summer highs may have been somewhat over-played. Ongoing 32479 Hille · Germany
Tel. +49 (0)5703-52029-0
continued to factor to near three-year peaks toward the competition on world expor t markets from Fax +49 (0)5703-52029-29
end of first quarter 2010 – though Canada and Europe too, despite smaller and lower Ruetermaschinen@t-online.de
in forecasts of the wheat and soya prices are backtracking steeply quality 2010 crops respectively - plus a larger than cross-yoke-plansifter.com MASCHINEN
as we go to press. expected Argentine crop - have also stopped the
lowest US seasonal Wheat and maize initially took turns to lead bulls running away with the wheat market entirely.
renewed market strength as traders continued Yet the year ahead is full of uncertainties. While
ending stocks in to fret over the adequacy of projected 2011 the latest International Grains Council report is
crops while a resurgent energy sector suggested chalking in a possible 24.5m tonne recovery in
15-years. The US competition for grains would remain strong wheat output, a Canadian Wheat Board official
between food, feed and fuel users. ‘Panic’ buying recently suggested the gain might be closer to 6m
stock is the main of various foodstuffs, especially staples like wheat, tonnes (albeit within a broad 635/675m range
sugar and rice, by Arab governments facing political that would allow for 12.5m less as well as 24.5m
factor in declining upheavals gave markets a strong ‘demand-led’ feel more grain than last year, depending on weather
at times. However, the turmoil across the Middle and other factors).
world inventories as East and North Africa appeared to be a double- The CWB also expects a minimal rise in this
edged sword for speculative buyers in grain futures year’s Canadian crop although the more important
this season’s global markets, encouraging them with steep gains in issue here is whether, within the total, Canada
crude oil and gold prices but also raising fears that can produce a more normal proportion of milling
consumption of the rising energy costs would send the global economic wheat after two years of weather hindrance on
recovery into reverse with all the implications for that front. Prayers for that outcome must be even
grain runs about slower commodity demand. more fervent in Australia, where officials recently
On the supply side, big question marks suggested their next crop (harvested late 2011/
22.5m tonnes over continue to overhang US
and Russian winter wheat
production. prospects following their
poor star t amid autumn
droughts and, in parts of
the US Plains, persistent
dryness problems. Australia
continues to count the
cost of the devastating
Queensland floods although
its continuing role in world
food wheat export trade
and its overseas milling
customers’ ability to work
round some of its quality
problems with creative
42 | march - april 2011 Grain &feed millinG technoloGy Grain &feed millinG technoloGy march - april 2011 | 43

3. to be tight at Whatever maize crop the US does achieve
the close of in 2011, it will start with extremely low stocks.
2010/11 at end- Until there is evidence of these being rebuilt,
June. However, prices could stay firm in this sector, keeping
the squeeze other grain and oilseed markets up. The US
on supplies of will also need a timely harvest as supplies Inline Moisture Determination
higher grade dwindle from July into August. Döscher & Döscher supplies specialized solutions for an
milling wheats Oilmeal costs have also risen in the last accurate and reliable moisture and density determination in
continues to month or two, propelled by extremely strong the production process.
tighten, leading Chinese demand for US soyabeans, eating Our technology based on the
to some very too quickly into the latter’s total supply and 2-Parameter-Resonance-Technology,
wide pr ice threatening a possible severe end-season stock this makes it possible to control
early 2012) might decline from this year’s very premiums in recent weeks. North American squeeze. US traders have also been fretting density and color independent of
high level. With a return to normal weather, hard spring wheat export prices, for example, about fairly conservative figures being touted the moisture in your products.
Australia could still produce millions of tonnes were recently quoted at their dearest levels for this spring;s US soyabean planted acreage –
more high quality milling wheat next season since June 2008. This is obviously focusing keen just enough, maybe, to meet demand if perfect Following Moisture Measuring
than this. Along with bigger expected bigger market interest on how much hard wheat weather delivers good yields. Demanding Systems can be used in the feed
Indian and Ukrainian crops, not to mention will be sown on that Continent this spring – some price-restraint, though Latin American production:
still large world carryover stocks from this
season (especially within the main supplying
and early portents are less than encouraging.
Despite high prices, US spring wheat area may
soyabean crops are turning out far bigger than
expected. That should relieve pressure on the • MoistureScan - Continuous control of the moisture
country, the USA), this suggests a less bullish decline as other crops offer better returns. US in the months ahead, possible leading to content in process
wheat market later in 2011/12. Canada, meanwhile, could see interruptions
to its mainly spring sown wheat crop
some cancelled US export business. The South
Americans may also sow bigger crops again
• MoistureScan XT - for high product temperature
(<140°C), for example after the dryer
as a massive snow pack melts amid this autumn, if prices persist at anything like
forecasts of heavier than usual rains current levels. However, some improvement • MoistureScan Ex - completely suitable for Atex zone 20
from latter March onward (possible in supplies of the other leading traded oilseeds
well into the growing period - though
these longer range forecasts can be
– like rapeseed and sunflowerseed - would be
useful in keeping prices under control across www.doescher.com
Visit us at Victam [Hall 6; Stand E056]
unreliable). the oilmeal sector.
On the other hand, European
plantings are up – perhaps not quite
as much as earlier hoped but, with
Main commodity highlights
decent summer weather and normal since our last review Doescher_90x132mm.indd 1 29/03/2011 16:07
yields and quality (especially in the
top quality producer Germany) things Wheat up – then down
could loosen up enough here by the A glance at our wheat char ts below
On the demand side for wheat, a possible fly autumn in terms of volume and quality to ease shows prices for the leading indicators have
in the ointment of potentially looser supply is milling wheat premiums a little. The question recently been at their most expensive since
potential for stronger feed use. Consumption remains, though, what will wheat be worth on the summer of 2008. As noted above, the
by this sector is expected to rise by several world markets early in the new season. Will factors behind the latest increases include
million tonnes globally this year to its highest persistent high world prices drag too much EU ongoing weather uncertainties in the US and
level since the early 1990’s as meat producers wheat overseas, as has arguably happened this Russia, Australia’s flooding/quality problems,
seek alternatives to tight and expensive maize season? Wheat will also have to follow maize strong demand from the Middle East and a
and barley. A currently forecast 5% rise in prices, both in terms of the contest for spring fair dash of speculative support (fund buying)
world wheat feeding to 123m tonnes will be acres and as a competing feedgrain. each time the market gets a piece of bullish
spread mainly over Australia, Canada, the Maize markets grew jittery again in the news. One of the big differences between
USA, China and the former Soviet Union, past month despite early USDA forecasts now and 2008, as pointed out in this column
offset by a drop in the EU. of a possible 4.2m acre rise in US plantings. previously, is that world stocks were much
While wheat has remain expensive in Some traders believe that is unlikely, given the lower then – both in absolute terms and in
recent months, the price has recently come demand for acres from all crops – although relation to consumption. This season’s ending
well off its highs – dropping at one stage by maize prices are certainly attractive to US stocks (in July) are in fact projected more than
almost 20% from the February peaks. Maize farmers. Then there is the question of yields. 50m or about 42% higher than those held
on the other hand, has risen sharply in value, Last year – with supposedly optimum and at the end of 2007/08, when wheat prices
narrowing the price spread between the two trouble-free growing conditions, the US crop last boomed. There is still a lot of grain in the
grains to its smallest in many years. This is raced to completion and ended up with rather main exporting country, the USA, especially
influencing importers’ grain buying decisions, disappointing yields whereas in 2009, a delayed - even before the next crop comes along. US
especially in Asia, where feed wheat purchases start and long cool development period saw planted area is expected to be up by about
have recently risen strongly. China has been a productivity soar (even with a wet harvest that 6% but with drought stressing the hard red
notable buyer, taking advantage of the large ran beyond the year’s end – though this did winter crop since it was sown – and spring
proportion of this year’s weather-damaged affect quality in many areas). If all went well wheat area possibly declining too – some
Australian milling wheat supply downgraded this year, current planting forecasts suggest USDA economists believe production could
to feed. the US could produce as much as 250/255 m still drop by 3.5m tonnes to about 56.5m.
Even with this extra global demand for tonnes, according to some observers - or 20m Even then, supply including carryover stocks
wheat in feeds, supplies are not expected to 30m less if weather misbehaves, say others. would still be comfortable. US wheat markets
44 | march - april 2011 Grain &feed millinG technoloGy Grain &feed millinG technoloGy march - april 2011 | 45

4. COMMODITIES
continue to price in a ‘risk premium’ until more world wheat pricing. Currently it is sitting on time to salvage a reasonable US crop?
is known about coming US and world crops. massive stocks and it expects another huge, • US planting competition – will other crops
In February the markets experienced a flurry possibly record crop this year. Exports – of take hard spring wheat acres?
of buying amid talk of a major drought loss several million tonnes – would make sense • European and Canadian crops – will summer
to crops in China – the world’s largest wheat to protect domestic growers’ incomes and weather live up to that description this year,
producer and consumer but that appears to keep them enthused but, like neighbouring enabling more high-protein, higher quality
have blown over after recent rain and snow Pakistan (also in surplus) and many other milling wheat production?
shrunk the drought area markedly. However, developing countries, India is anxious about • ‘Black Sea’ crops – what sort of crop/export
Australia does not seem to have done as food price inflation – both home-produced, comeback will Russia, other CIS suppliers
badly as feared after the Queensland floods through economic growth, and imported make?
and remains a fairly keen competitor for from the volatile world market for food • Will US maize output increase much – taking
commodities. But while exports pressure off wheat as a feed source?
from the Indian subcontinent
could remain restricted, they
remain a possibility – especially
Coarse grains – limited maize
if world prices start to retreat relief next year?
more seriously, and this golden
opportunity to earn good export US maize prices rose to their highest level
revenue seems to slip away. since June 2008 in early March as traders
The International Grains continued to factor in forecasts of the lowest
Council recently forecast world US seasonal ending stocks in 15-years. The
wheat sowings would increase US stock is the main factor in declining world
this year by 3.4% - up nearly 8% inventories as this season’s global consumption
international milling wheat import tenders. in the CIS, countries, just 1.2% in Europe and of the grain runs about 22.5m tonnes over
Canada has also figured from time to time South America, 9.6% in Canada and 4.4% in production.
in milling wheat deals despite its lower Australia. On trend yields it extrapolates a What the US sows and grows this year will
quality 2010 crop which buyers like Japan are possible crop of 672m tonnes versus last year’s be the main factor in any recovery in world
reportedly managing to accommodate by 647.5m. Even if consumption stayed around supplies. The most recent outlook from the
relaxing blending specifications somewhat. this season’s unusually high level, that would USDA suggests its own farmers will put in
Russia, of course, is still out of the world wheat still add to stocks. 92m acres – 3.8m more than last year though
market and its officials recently backtracked on A recent forecast from a Canadian Wheat some traders think this a bit optimistic,
hints that their export ban might end in July Board Official was more guarded, however, others believe it is ‘do-able’ given the current
putting production in a possible range extremely high price of corn and some spare
of 635/672m tonnes with a likely figure fallow acres coming into the total farmland
of just 653.5m. With consumption pot. Depending on whether yields are above,
seen in a range of 655/675m but a below or average, the next US crop could
median figure of 660m, this veers on be anywhere from 310 to 350m tonnes. The
the side of further stock drawdown, if top end would add a few million tonnes to
not ruling out a looser scenario. stocks, taking some of the upward pressure
Clearly, until more hard information off prices. Early long-range weather forecasts
comes to hand about condition of have raised the odds somewhat on a wetter
2011 crops and weather over the spring, possibly running into early summer. This
next six months, wheat prices could cuts both ways. On the one hand, it could trim
well stay volatile. With the spread corn planting plans, turning acres over to soya,
against maize now so narrow, they will which can be planted later. On the other hand,
when the next crop comes in. This may be an also have to follow the latter market closely, it sets the crop up with plenty of moisture
indicator that things aren’t going so well there regardless of improving wheat supply. and, given a long cool growing season, this can
crop-condition-wise – or it may simply point The descent in world prices has had a actually benefit productivity – as we saw in
to the authorities trying to keep prices under marked impact on EU wheat costs. This has 2009, when these a wet start put the market
control on a tight and still frisky domestic been well reflected in the Paris milling wheat on red alert, only to see the crop finish with
breadwheat market. It would not be a big futures market where nearby delivery has record yields and output.
surprise if this year’s crop does manage some fallen to just �234/tonne after hitting a low Elsewhere in the maize supplying world,
sort of rebound, enough to resume exports of �227.75. In February, the price was 15% supplies have been kept up by good
later this summer, albeit on a smaller scale than higher at �281 and some dealers spoke of it harvests for the second year running in Latin
normal. Ukraine and Kazakhstan meanwhile challenging the record 2008 high of �295, even America and Ukraine. Exports have also
remain sellers on a small scale and if their crops �300/tonne. LIFFE feed wheat futures have been supplemented by a much larger India
go well, they could step up exports in 2011/12. seen a smaller drop, easing about 12% from crop. Along with the surplus of feedwheat
Yet while some sort of reprise might be sen £210 to under £185/tonne. this season – and a decline in global import
for the ‘Black Sea’ exporters as a whole, it demand for maize – these contributions are
seems unlikely that these will perform their
role of recent past years in pulling the world
KEY FACTORS IN THE MONTHS helping to keep maize prices under control
while awaiting the next US crop.
price of lower/middling grade breadwheats AHEAD As we go to press, the maize market, like
down levels that buyers had become wheat, has backtracked from its February
accustomed to. India is another wild card in • US weather – will Plains drought break in highs by about 8.5% - if still a staggering 85%
46 | march - april 2011 Grain &feed millinG technoloGy &feed millinG technoloGy
Grain PREVIOUS PAGE NEXT PAGE march - april 2011 | 47

5. FEATURE
247-1007 • Brabender • Anz. 90x270 mm • Stand 25.03.2011 • englisch
far better protection of the precious commodi- coordination of different disciplines
ties as compared with a single skin round silo. are immediately noticed.
Because of the two layers of air (between clad- For example, a conflict between
Actual project:
New bulk station at ATR – Husum (Germany)
ding and panel and inside the bin panel) there is the supporting structure of the build-
dearer than at this time last year. The main • Can China continue self-sufficient in maize is still growing rapidly and expected to Arp, Thordsen, Rautenberg GmbH & Co
no condensation, which can perish the products. ing and the silo techniques is directly
KG - ATR for short - with about 650 employ-
factor has been growing unease over the or will it need to import from the west? continue on its upward trajectory. The Moreover, the bin top that neatly seals … where quality is measured.
ees from out of five production facilities, pro-
impact of high energy costs on the global USDA expects it to raise demand for soya the silos prevents contamination and enables
vides and advises 15,000 farmers, grain dealers
economy, slowing demand for higher
value foods, including meat, with a knock
Oilmeals – supply boost from meal alone by over 7m tonnes – almost 20%
- in the current season ending September
easy passage.
SCE modular silos can be used for stor-
and corn mills in Denmark, Schleswig-Holstein
on effect on consumption of feedstuffs. Bumper Latam soya crops 30. World total demand for soyameal is ing a variety of products like flour, grain,
and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania as well
as northern Lower Saxony, Brandenburg and
However, a more potent factor may be seen growing by about 9% or 15m tonnes, animal feed, petfood, coffee, cocoa, peanuts,
Saxony.
the negative sentiment this creates in the Feed users facing higher costs for their requiring crush of about 19m tonnes more granulates, pellets, malt and seeds. But for
Such a prominent firm holds quality, compe-
investment community, where speculative soya meal for the past year may see prices soyabeans. The message is clear: the main products having flow difficulty, the company
tence and punctuality as of paramount impor-
funds and institutional investors including ease in the months as Latin American suppliers in North and South American must has developed its own extracting grid slides
tance. ATR recognised these values at SCE and
pension funds, may have put rather too soyabean crops turn out much larger than keep expanding their crops – this year, next for extracting high volumes, but allows dos-
placed the commission of building their new
much faith in a one-way commodity boom. expected a few months ago. The biggest shift year and into the future. ing at the same time. This system avoids noticeable, and can be resolved in
bulk station.
A rocketing crude oil price may well kick- has been in Argentina’s fortunes with the First indications for US sowings this spring bridges and rat holes. the design phase itself. This results
The bulk station consists of two load tracks
star t slowing expansion in demand for lifting of a major drought threat. Production suggest only a minimal increase in sown area According to company officials, factories in a drastic reduction in the cost of
and has a volume of 870m³ distributed over
alter native /bio-fuels (cor n and sugar there could now be around 50/52m tonnes – and a crop not much bigger than last year’s equipped with these grid slides and have failure.
72 smooth wall cells. The delivery includes
ethanol, soya and rapeseed bio-diesel etc), possibly even more – compared with about 90.6m – which has proved barely adequate met with a high degree of satisfaction from For the client, 3D designs ensures a
engineering, the supply of hoppers, cellblocks,
implying a highly bullish effect for these 48m expected at the turn of the year when to meet demand – as farmers decide to their owners. lot savings on the site and ensures a fast
commodities. However, a stalling world some pessimists thought the crop could fall cash in on high maize prices instead. The and significant ‘return on investment'. How to measure
cell covering, steel construction and insulated
roof and wall coverings. This new bulk loading
Advantage of 3D visualisation
economic recovery could negate much of
the impact. Most of the growth in feed
as low as 43m tonnes from last year’s record
54.5m. Brazil has done even better and is
US has had good yields for the past two
years. Will it get the right weather again? Functional design in the field of modular International industrial and quality:
will ensure significantly shorter waiting times
and higher efficiency of the lorries.
demand, especially maize and soya, is in now expected tom produce around 70/72m Further forward, the Latin Americans have silo construction is of crucial importance. safety standards
versus the land resources to raise their planted Studies show that the cost of failure dur- SCE has successfully completed
la s t yea r ’s areas for their 2012 crops when sowing ing construction can touch 10 to 20 percent several projects in Europe, Africa,
69m , also begins in October. However, they will need of the turnover of a project. As each project Asia, America and confirms to inter- controls. The design, supply and assembly
an all-time
record. Both
a continuing stimulus from soyabean and
product export prices.
is custom made, the plans are first drawn
using 3D Computer Aided Designing, ena- company has been approved to the qual-
In our technology – projects done following
national industry and safety standards. The of complete turnkey
the European Standard.
countries are Looking at the other major oilseed bling the customer to visualize their project. ity management system ISO9001: 2008, for highestFor quality and safety reasons, welding on
requirements.
expected to crops, 2010/11 was an unimpressive year The advantage of working with a 3D which is applicable for the initial design to
cr ush more for expansion of rapeseed and sunflowers. visualisation is that problems related to
Kernelyzer-F
final product, including associated welding
(NIR) company.is restricted ®-AT minimum
the building site
by the
and Farinographto the
soyabeans Although production of oilmeals in total
(Argentina rose by about 15.7m tonnes, 85% of that
can draw was down to soya. So, while the influx of
China and other developing countries. Even
on larger
than normal
stocks too), resulting in more about 6-7m
new crop Latin American soya may ease
prices for a while this spring and early
summer, uncer tainty over longer term
Quality grain handling Good
Agricultural
Silo Construction & Engineering
Modular square bins
China seems to be feeling the pinch this
month, cutting soya impor ts and recording
tonnes more (about 20%) meal for export
customers. Brazil is also expected to ship
supplies may see costs level out later in
the year. Chief Idryers Town I Sao PauloEuropeanWarsawsilos Standards
New Delhi Mexico City I Cape
Chief Atlanta Bangkok Practice
Supplied to I Cairo I DIN orIASAE/ASTM
I
an unusual trade deficit. Along with the more whole soyabeans to foreign crushers.
political instability in the Arab world, this The improvement in South American
KEY FACTORS IN THE MONTHS Grain. It’s your business.
is making investors far more cautions. If it
is true, as some analysts claim, that the top
producers’ fortunes has weighed against a
tightening US soyabean market as China AHEAD more profits
Which is why we never
20/30 % (maybe more) of the commodity continues to suck away record quantities underestimate the importance through
price boom is down to speculators, the from the main supplier. China and other • The final size of expected record Latin
withdr awal of this suppor t could be buyers have already begun to switch to American soya harvests
of how it is handled.
smart storage
expected to help prices relax fur ther. cheaper new crop Latin American supplies • US soyabean sowings and crop weather If you need a partner with the
just starting to arrive on the market. • China’s ongoing livestock expansion & its expertise, technology and In our service – for optimum
www.sce.be
KEY FACTORS IN THE MONTHS Prices of soya meal in the US have already
dropped by 11% from their 2½–year peaks
demand for more soya
• European & CIS countries’ rapeseed crop
manufacturing methods to
ensure that your storage plant
satisfaction of our customers.
AHEAD set in early February if still about 25% dearer progress & sunflower sowings Coming Your Waysecond-to-none in terms of
is This is not only a contribution to the technical quality
than at this time last year while European • Canadian rapeseed plantings/weather
• US weather – a dry spring is now needed prices have also started to
Now distributing know about and processes, then
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The decline might have
been greater if not for some cleaners and You can trust in Chief.
sow?
• Will expanding US ethanol exports eat
moderately bullish factors
persisting in this market.
spares
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6. LINKS
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