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Global Climate Negotiations
      Doha COP-18 Negotiations Result in
      “Doha Climate Gateway”

     Negotiations from 26 November to 8 December 2012


     Brief Assessment: 11 December 2012


     Arthur Lee




© 2012 Arthur Lee        Photos by Arthur Lee excepted where noted   1
Summary Assessment of the Doha Climate Gateway: Kyoto Protocol and
   Flex Mechanisms Extended; New Market Mechanism Deferred

         Kyoto Protocol is extended from 2013 to 2020 with emission reductions submitted by nations with roughly 14% of global
          emissions (according to an EU press statement). Carry-over of emissions allowances is allowed, though most nations
          have declared not to use them in the second period. Access to the Kyoto flexibility mechanisms is allowed only to those
          nations agreeing to the second commitment period. Australia and Kazakhstan have now signed up to the second period.

         Clean Development Mechanism’s (CDM) 2% share of proceeds that goes to the Adaptation Fund is maintained at 2%.
          However, the transfer of emissions allowances in Joint Implementation projects (conducted between Annex I nations) will
          now be subject to the same 2% proceeds going to the Adaptation Fund. The CDM will continue to be in effect with no
          gap as of 1 January 2013.

         Long Term Cooperative Action (LCA) track, which developing nations did not want to close, is now closed with several
          issues deferred to future negotiations in the technical bodies of the Convention, called the Subsidiary Body on Scientific
          and Technological Advice (SBSTA) and the Subsidiary Body on Implementation (SBI). For example, new market
          mechanism modalities and procedures are now deferred to SBSTA negotiations. Non-market approaches will also be
          considered in a new work program under SBSTA.
         The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change
          and its first legal instrument, the Kyoto Protocol, have
          had slow, long term impacts on government policies




                                                                                                                                 Source: IISD news coverage
          around the world in the last 18 years. The formal
          continuation of the Kyoto Protocol into a defined
          second commitment period, with all its flexibility
          mechanisms and the institutions established both
          under the KP and the UNFCCC means that markets and
          policies driven by them will continue. The carbon
          markets may not increase levels of activities or carbon
          prices, but the markets will still likely limp along as
          emission reductions are continuing to be required.

© 2012 Arthur Lee                                                                                                                                             2
Summary Assessment of the Doha Climate Gateway: To Consider Loss
   and Damages; Durban Platform to Begin Discussion of Scope and
   Structure.
         The issue of “loss and damages” will be taken up for future negotiations in a new institutional mechanism under the
          UNFCCC with modalities and procedures to be elaborated at COP19 Warsaw. These negotiations will likely enter into
          issues such as: the risk of slow onset events (e.g., sea level rise) and extreme events; non-economic loss and
          damages; impacts of climate change integrated into climate-resilient development processes; and how impacts of
          climate change are affecting patterns of migration, displacement and human mobility.

         With the closing of the LCA track, nations will now focus negotiations towards “a protocol, another legal instrument or an
          agreed outcome with legal force” to be completed by COP21 in 2015, and to come into force by 2020. The Ad Hoc
          Working Group on the Durban Platform for Enhanced Action (ADP) is the single track of negotiations under the UN
          Framework Convention with a negotiating text to be prepared by May 2015 to be ready for completing negotiations at
          COP21. Therefore, elements of the draft negotiating text will have to be considered at COP20.

         In 2012, the ADP has begun considering these elements: (a) Application of the principles of the Convention; (b) Building
          on the experiences and lessons learned from other processes under the Convention and from other multilateral
          processes, as appropriate; (c) The scope, structure and design of the 2015 agreement; (d) Ways of defining and
          reflecting enhanced action. It will also consider, in 2013, ways to increase “ambition” of emissions reductions before
          2020 in a second work stream.




                                                                                                                                   Source: IISD news coverage
         With numerous contentious issues deferred,
          including even “settled” text on shared vision
          with its issues of historical responsibility, the
          negotiations going forward will again be fraught
          with difficulties. Continuing issues such as loss
          and damages, long term finance, technology
          development and transfer with its intellectual
          property rights protection issue, will still pose
          enormous challenges to future negotiations of
          the Durban Platform.

© 2012 Arthur Lee                                                                                                                     3
Doha Climate Gateway (Details 1 of 7)
   Extending the Kyoto Protocol to 2020
         After the last three days of almost round-the-clock negotiating sessions stretching to Saturday night 9 pm, the nations of
          COP18 Doha agreed to a package of decisions which is now called the “Doha Climate Gateway,” building on the Durban
          Platform of Enhanced Action from COP17 Durban. This summary describes and assesses select issues that were of
          interest to me as an official Business and Industry NGO (BINGO) observer.

         At Doha, the most important single decision that needed to be agreed to by all Parties who ratified the Kyoto Protocol, is
          the extension of the Kyoto Protocol. At COP17 Durban, nations agreed that the Kyoto Protocol will have a second
          commitment period to begin 1 January 2013 but they could not agree to an end date. At COP18 Doha, nations finally
          agreed to a second commitment period ending in 2020. Several nations have withdrawn from while others elected to
          enter into the Kyoto Protocol’s second commitment period. Canada, Japan, New Zealand and Russia withdrew.

         Australia and Kazakhstan have submitted quantified emission limitations and reduction commitments (QELRC) to the
          second commitment period. Australia committed to 99.5 per cent of 1990 levels over the eight year commitment period
          (2013-2020), which Australia states is consistent with its Cancun pledge of 5% reduction of emissions by 2020 based on
          year 2000 emissions with the option to move to 15% or 25% reductions if certain conditions are met. Kazakhstan
          submitted a QELRC of 95% of 1990 level for the period 2013-2020, with a pledge to reduce 7% by 2020.




                    Connie Hedegaard European Commissioner for Climate Action, and Zhenhua Xie, Minister/Vice-Chairman National
© 2012 Arthur Lee   Development and Reform Commission, China. Source: IISD news coverage                                           4
Doha Climate Gateway (Details 2 of 7)
   Kyoto Protocol Goes to Second Commitment Period
         The negotiations to extend the Kyoto Protocol to 2020 was greatly hampered by the issue of “carry-over” of unused
          emissions allowances (“assigned amount units” or AAUs) in the first commitment period. Although the final agreement
          allows Parties to use such AAUs in the second commitment period, the European Union, Australia, Japan, Norway,
          Switzerland, Liechtenstein, Monaco inserted political declarations into an annex of the KP decision that they will not use
          or purchase any carry-over AAUs.

         Ukraine made an opposing statement, reflected in the footnote to its QELRC, that there “[s]hould be full carry-over and
          there is no acceptance of any cancellation or any limitation on use of this legitimately acquired sovereign property.”

         Australia’s statement is nuanced. The statement declared: “Australia will not purchase AAUs carried over from the first
          commitment period. Australia will adhere to arrangements in other countries relating to the transfer of AAUs under any
          arrangement that Australia may have linking our emissions trading scheme with any other scheme including the
          European Union emissions trading scheme. Imported AAUs will continue to be ineligible for surrender for compliance by
          liable entities in Australia's emissions trading scheme.” This would mean companies in Australia will not be able to
          purchase any AAUs carried over from the first commitment period for compliance with the Australian scheme.




© 2012 Arthur Lee   Connie Hedegaard submits the EU’s written consent to amend the Kyoto Protocol. Source: IISD news coverage          5
Doha Climate Gateway (Details 3 of 7)
   Long Term Cooperative Action Track Closes
         To close the negotiating track under the Bali Action Plan called “Long Term Cooperative Action,” nations agreed to a few
          easy issues in order to advance other tracks of negotiations. Nations agreed to a shared vision in two relatively simple
          statements: “Decides that Parties will urgently work towards the deep reduction in global greenhouse gas emissions
          required to hold the increase in global average temperature below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and to attain a global
          peaking of global greenhouse gas emissions as soon as possible, consistent with science and as documented in the
          Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, reaffirming that the time frame for
          peaking will be longer in developing countries; …”

         This shared vision avoids any discussion about peaking year and pathways for emissions reduction. The statement then
          further reaffirms what has already been agreed in previous negotiations: “Also decides that Parties’   efforts should be
          undertaken on the basis of equity and common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities, and the
          provision of finance, technology transfer and capacity-building to developing countries in order to support their mitigation
          and adaptation actions under the Convention, ….”




© 2012 Arthur Lee                                          Photo: Arthur Lee                                                         6
Doha Climate Gateway (Details 4 of 7)
   Long Term Cooperative Action Track Closes
         Nations also agreed to put several contentious issues into the standing subsidiary bodies under the UN Framework
          Convention on Climate Change for future negotiations, effectively deferring these issues for the future.

         Nations decided “to establish a work programme under the Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice to
          continue the process of clarifying the quantified economy-wide emission reduction targets of developed country Parties
          with a view to: (a) Identifying common elements for measuring the progress made towards the achievement of the
          quantified economy-wide emission reduction targets; (b) Ensuring the comparability of efforts among developed country
          Parties, taking into account differences in their national circumstances; …”

         Nations also decided “to establish a work programme to further the understanding of the diversity of the nationally
          appropriate mitigation actions [for developing nations] … under the Subsidiary Body for Implementation, with a view to
          facilitating the preparation and implementation of those nationally appropriate mitigation actions,…”




© 2012 Arthur Lee                          Source: Webcast video of the stocktaking informal plenary                               7
Doha Climate Gateway (Details 5 of 7)
   New Market Mechanism Deferred to SBSTA Negotiations
   The negotiations for a new market mechanism was deadlocked at COP18 Doha. No progress could be made. Therefore, the
       President of COP18 proposed that the modalities and procedures of how such a new mechanism could work to the
       Subsidiary Body on Scientific and Technological Advice (SBSTA), considering these elements:
         (a) Its operation under the guidance and authority of the Conference of the Parties;

         (b) The voluntary participation of Parties in the mechanism;

         (c) Standards that deliver real, permanent, additional, and verified mitigation outcomes, avoid double counting of effort and achieve
          a net decrease and/or avoidance of greenhouse gas emissions;

         (d) Requirements for the accurate measurement, reporting and verification of emission reductions, emission removals and/or
          avoided emissions;

         (e) Means to stimulate mitigation across broad segments of the economy, which are defined by the participating Parties and may
          be on a sectoral and/or project-specific basis;

         (f) Criteria, including the application of conservative methods, for the establishment, approval and periodic adjustment of ambitious
          reference levels (crediting thresholds and/or trading caps) and for the periodic issuance of units based on mitigation below a
          crediting threshold or based on a trading cap;

         (g) Criteria for the accurate and consistent recording and tracking of units;

         (h) Supplementarity;

         (i) A share of proceeds to cover administrative expenses and assist developing country Parties that are particularly vulnerable to
          the adverse effects of climate change to meet the costs of adaptation;

         (j) The promotion of sustainable development;

         (k) The facilitation of the effective participation of private and public entities;

         (l) The facilitation of the prompt start of the mechanism;.
© 2012 Arthur Lee                                                                                                                              8
Doha Climate Gateway (Details 6 of 7)
   Tech Transfer; Aviation and Marine Fuels emissions, CCS
         Developing nations were successful in retaining language in the LCA agreement to “request the Technology Executive
          Committee, in elaborating its future workplan to initiate the exploration of issues relating to enabling environments and
          barriers” to technology development and transfer.

         This language will again be used as a way to allow discussion of intellectual property rights negotiations, which
          developed nations oppose, as the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change is not deemed to be the appropriate
          venue for such negotiations.

         The Subsidiary Body on Scientific and Technology Advice (SBSTA) will continue to ask the International Civil Aviation
          Organization (ICAO) and the International Maritime Organization (IMO) to report on their progress of implementing
          efficiency standards and working towards a global market-based mechanism. No other language could be negotiated at
          COP18, thus no new development on a potential tax on emissions from these sectors.

         Carbon capture and geological storage (CCS) was considered in the COP18 negotiations under the CDM. Projects that
          cross national boundaries are to be deferred until negotiations resume in 2016. A global carbon reserve was considered
          briefly for negotiations but was also deferred until 2016. Such a reserve would have raised costs for CCS projects.




© 2012 Arthur Lee                                      Photo: Arthur Lee                                                              9
Doha Climate Gateway (Details 7 of 7)
   Durban Platform to Consider Elements
         The Ad Hoc Working Group on the Durban Platform for Enhanced Action (ADP) is the single track of negotiations under
          the UN Framework Convention with a negotiating text to be prepared by May 2015 to be ready for completing
          negotiations at COP21 December 2015. Therefore, elements of the draft negotiating text will have to be considered at
          COP20.

         In 2012, the ADP has begun considering these elements: (a) Application of the principles of the Convention; (b) Building
          on the experiences and lessons learned from other processes under the Convention and from other multilateral
          processes, as appropriate; (c) The scope, structure and design of the 2015 agreement; (d) Ways of defining and
          reflecting enhanced action. It will also consider, in 2013, ways to increase “ambition” of emissions reductions before
          2020 in a second work stream.




© 2012 Arthur Lee   Deputy Special Envoy Jonathan Pershing and Special Envoy Todd Stern, United States, Source: Webcast video of COP18/CMP8 closing plenary   10
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
    Long Term Impacts

     The impacts of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change have been accumulating over the
      long term, and in the last decade have driven national policies (draft or passed), regulatory regimes,
      even the IMO and ICAO, and projects that include but not limited to the following:
        –    EU Emissions Trading Scheme and the associated monitoring scheme.

        –    National legislations in the EU that implemented the EU ETS in early 2000’s to 2005

        –    Stimulus money in the EU and US for CCS and renewable energy technologies

        –    Senate and other Congressional bills (USA) over the last several years

        –    New Zealand’s implementation of an emissions trading scheme that caps emissions including carbon content of fuels, which remains
             in place though New Zealand will not enter the second commitment period of the KP.

        –    Australian National Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reporting System (NGERS)

        –    Australian Clean Energy Futures Bills (passed recently)

        –    California’s AB32 and implementing regulations

        –    Various discussion papers and policies being considered in the larger rapidly developing nations (the BASIC nations of Brazil, South
             Africa, India, and China).

        –    Kazakhstan imposes emission limits and initiates a national emissions trading scheme as it enters the second period of the KP.

        –    Changes to international shipping and aviation energy efficiency and operational efficiency standards

        –    Clean Development Mechanism projects

     Long term impacts can continue to accumulate as the negotiations drive more developing nations to
      enact laws and regulations for GHG monitoring, reporting, verification, and on technology transfer
      criteria, and also adaptation actions affecting infrastructure, land use, and access to resources.
© 2012 Arthur Lee                                                                                                                                   11
Global Negotiations and Parallel to the History of the
   Scientific Assessments
         The current climate change negotiations by over 190 nations is part of a process that has gone on since the early 1990’s, in parallel to the
          development of four scientific assessments carried out by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which began in 1988 and
          culminated in the first global scientific assessment of 1990. The current UN negotiation round is called “COP17,” hosted by South Africa. The
          IPCC has begun convening several hundred scientists, engineers, technologists, and economists for the next three years to conduct the Fifth
          Assessment.



                                              IPCC                                                            UNFCCC
                        “Policy-Relevant, Not Policy                                          “Common But Differentiated
                           Prescriptive Science”                                                  Responsibilities”

                                   1990 First Assessment Report
                                                                                                       1992 Rio Summit: UNFCCC signed
                     “…emissions resulting from human activities are substantially
                           increasing the atmospheric concentrations…”


                                   1995 Second Assessment Report                                        1994 UNFCCC entered into force
                     “…balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence
                                         on global climate …”
                                                                                               1995 COP1: Berlin Mandate provided differentiated
                                                                                              approaches for Annex I and non-Annex I (“developing”)
                                   2001 Third Assessment Report                                                    countries
                        “…new and stronger evidence that most of the warming
                        observed over the past 50 years is attributable to human
                                              activities.”                                              COP3 negotiations resulted in the
                                                                                                             1997 Kyoto Protocol


                                     2007 Fourth Assessment Report                                   2005 Kyoto Protocol entered into force
                           “Most of the observed increase in globally averaged                       COP/MOP 1 held in Montreal, Canada
                       temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to
                      the observed increase in anthropogenic (human) greenhouse
                                          gas concentrations. “                             2009 Copenhagen Accords; 2010 Cancun Agreements; 2011
                                                                                                  Durban Platform; 2012 Doha Climate Gateway


© 2012 Arthur Lee                                                                                                                                         12
“SideLights”
   IPIECA, Chevron, Shell, Statoil, ENI, QatarGas and RasGas in Side
   Event
         IPIECA Side Event “The Expanding Role of Natural Gas,” 30 November, 2012 at COP18 Doha.




                                                   Photo: Helen Murphy, IPIECA


© 2012 Arthur Lee                                                                                   13
“SideLights”
   Chevron, Green Gulf Launch Solar Test Facility 2 Dec 2012
         The Qatar National Vision 2030 calls for 1.8 Gigawatts of Solar Energy, or approximately 16% of its energy generation
          portfolio. To support the first step in this effort, Chevron and partner Green Gulf launched the Solar Test Facility on 2
          December 2012 with Her Highness Sheikha Moza bint Nasser, the queen of the Emir, who in her role as the Chairperson
          of the Qatar Foundation officially launched the generation of the facility. Five Ministerial-level Qatar officials also joined
          the event, including the President of the COP-18, His Excellency Mr. Abdullah bin Hamad Al-Attiyah, and Christiana
          Figueres, the Executive Secretary of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. U.S. Ambassador to Qatar
          Susan Ziadeh also attended. Sheikha Moza opens solar test facility

         The Solar Test Facility is seven acres of test site supporting approximately 200 kW of solar photovoltaic systems and
          200 kW of solar thermal systems, plus testing a mini smart-grid with battery storage. Around 20 PV products will be
          evaluated, including crystalline silicon, thin film, and concentrating PV. Several solar thermal collectors and applications
          will be tested, including solar cooling and desalination. Operating parameters such as tracking, cleaning frequencies and
          system scales will also be studied.




© 2012 Arthur Lee                                                                                                                     14
“SideLights”
   Chevron, Green Gulf Launch Solar Test Facility, 2 Dec 2012




                                Photo: Aisha Al Musallam / HHOPL
                                                                   Christiana Figureres, UNFCCC. Photos: Arthur Lee




 Photos: Arthur Lee


© 2012 Arthur Lee                                                                                                     15
“SideLights”
      Carbon Capture and Storage Association and University of Texas Side
      Event
       Capacity Building and Education Perspectives, Undergraduate and Graduate Training in Research and Applications of
        CCS. Moderated by Katherine Romanek (UT Austin, left). Luke Warren CCSA, second from left. Tim Dixon IEAGHG,
        third from right.




                                                         Photo:s Arthur Lee
© 2012 Arthur Lee                                                                                                           16
Appendix
   Brief History of Global Climate Negotiations




© 2012 Arthur Lee        Photos by Arthur Lee excepted where noted   17
Global Climate Change Negotiations:

        Background and Brief History




        Arthur Lee
        Observer from the Business & Industry NGO Community

        Updated: December 2012


                           All photos by Arthur Lee except where noted.
© 2012 Arthur Lee
Primer on the UNFCCC and the Complex Negotiations (1 of 10)



          This primer is to provide a brief, high-level description of selected
          history and the complexity of the process of these UN negotiations.

          The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change is an
          international treaty that was signed by President George Bush in




                                                                                    Photos by Arthur Lee
          1992 at a summit at the Rio de Janeiro. The international treaty is
          called a Framework for good reasons. It is only a framework and
          details were left to be further negotiated over time. The UNFCCC
          was ratified by over 184 nations in 1994 and came into force as
          international law at that time.

          The UNFCCC recognizes the science of climate change, talked
          about “preventing dangerous anthropogenic interference with the
          climate system,” and sets out a framework for nations to reduce
          greenhouse gas emissions voluntarily. The UNFCCC sets out two
          subsidiary negotiating bodies called:

                    Subsidiary Body on Implementation (SBI)

                    Subsidiary Body on Scientific and Technological Advice                                 Photo: Screenshot from UNFCCC webcast
                    (SBSTA)



          ..that convenes twice a year to negotiate all kinds of details in rough
          categories according to its names. In practice, the thousands of
          negotiators who come to the SBI and SBSTA meetings complete
          their negotiations of each set of details and then towards the second
          meeting (end of the year) join the Conference of Parties (COP) to
          table their completed texts to the ministers who attend the COP,
          where the ministers then make their decisions. At each COP, there
          are always decisions made.




© 2012 Arthur Lee                                                                                                                                  19
Primer on the UNFCCC and the Complex Negotiations (2 of 10)

   From the Berlin Mandate to the Kyoto Protocol

          At COP1 Berlin, Parties to the Convention agreed to the Berlin
          Mandate, which mandated a roadmap to completing negotiating a
          Protocol by COP3 at Kyoto.

          In December 1997 at COP3 at Kyoto, the over 184 nations after long
          two weeks of round-the-clock negotiations came up with the Kyoto
          Protocol, which was a legally binding international treaty. In 2005, it
          entered into force when a threshold number of nations and their
          emissions were accounted – 55 nations with at least 55% of
          emissions – submitted their instruments of ratification to the United
          Nations.

          In these negotiations, the importance of having texts, and making
          progress towards texts, is paramount. Each decision, whether it is a
          relatively simple one to a complex text of the Kyoto Protocol, can still
          represent years of negotiating efforts. For example, the Marrakech
          Accords that set out the first complete set of rules and criteria for the
          clean development mechanism (Article 12 of the Kyoto Protocol) took
          at least two years to complete. After they were completed,
          negotiations in subsequent years then turned to operationalizing the
          CDM Executive Board and its “modalities and procedures,” which
          means in practice what the Executive Board does, how it does its
          work, and its membership and processes. In many ways, that is still
          going on in the current negotiations with the focus on streamlining,
          reforming, and refocusing geographically its modalities and
          procedures.

          Other mechanisms, such as the Joint Implementation provisions
          (Article 6 of the Kyoto Protocol), took another two years of
          negotiations before a Joint Implementation Steering Committee
          (JISC, similar to the function of the CDM Executive Board) was
          operationalized with modalities, procedures, and getting the
          members in place to actually start doing any work of reviewing and
          approving Joint Implementation projects.

© 2012 Arthur Lee                                                                     20
Primer on the UNFCCC and the Complex Negotiations (3 of 10)

   From COP13 or CMP3

         The Conference of Parties (COP) when serving as the Meeting of the
          Parties to the Kyoto Protocol is called COP/MOP or CMP (short).
          COP13 in Bali was also the meeting of CMP3.

         The CMP decides on issues negotiated specifically under the Kyoto
          Protocol, such as the Clean Development Mechanism.

         For example, with Canada’s withdrawal from the KP in 2011, both
          the US and Canada will become observer states in the CMP
          negotiations because they are not Parties to the KP.

         In 2007, with lack of sufficient progress since the entry into force of
          the Kyoto Protocol (since 2005), the nations which are “Parties” to
          the Kyoto Protocol again negotiated in a two-week period, round-the-
          clock, and with great emotional outbursts, settled on the Bali Action
          Plan. The Bali Action Plan put all Parties on a negotiating roadmap
          towards COP15 to complete negotiations about two major issues:

            –       The continuation (or not) of the Kyoto Protocol. Certainly in
                    the minds of developing nations, there was no question that
                    the KP must continue

            –       The beginning of negotiations about “long term cooperative
                    action” which numerous nations, including the US, EU,
                    Australia, Canada felt would be the way towards a new
                    comprehensive agreement for all nations

         For these two purposes, two plenary bodies are used to negotiate
          such issues.

            –       Ad Hoc Working Group on the Further Commitments of the
                    Kyoto Protocol (AWG-KP)

            –       Ad Hoc Working Group on Long Term Cooperative Action
                    (AWG-LCA)
© 2012 Arthur Lee                                                                   21
Primer on the UNFCCC and the Complex Negotiations (4 of 10)

   COP15 or CMP5 at Copenhagen

         For over two years and amidst numerous added negotiating rounds,
          the more than 100 nations met and finally tried to fashion several
          texts for negotiations at COP15 Copenhagen. However, as we all
          know now, agreement was never reached for the “further
          commitments of the Kyoto Protocol” and the LCA negotiations
          yielded a three page document, which was never completely agreed
          in plenary by the entire COP17 body at Copenhagen, became this
          “political agreement” called the Copenhagen Accord. Given all the
          reviews of failure given by observers and the media with high
          expectations, this was a remarkable political agreement personally
          negotiated between several heads of governments, including the
          Presidents of the US, China, Brazil, and Prime Minister of India, but
          sidelining the European Union leaders.

         In hindsight, the key success of the Copenhagen Accord was that the
          negotiations themselves compelled a number of nations to pledge a
          series of commitments and actions, not necessarily targets with time
          tables, that would show to the world that these nations can take on
          such responsibilities. Outside of the Copenhagen Accord, there were
          also decisions that continued the negotiating tracks of a large
          number of decisions, including a decision text that kept alive the CCS
          in CDM issue. Other decision texts kept alive the issues of sectoral
          credit trading and longer term future of additional market
          mechanisms




© 2012 Arthur Lee                                                                  22
Primer on the UNFCCC and the Complex Negotiations (5 of 10)

   COP16 or CMP6 at Cancun

         The Copenhagen Accord never received formal recognition by the
          entire body of the COP. However, throughout 2010 and into the
          COP16 negotiating sessions, negotiators met to parse out all the
          elements of the Copenhagen Accord and set them up for formal
          negotiations and codifications as decisions by the supreme body of
          the UNFCCC, the COP. Therefore, at COP16, again with round-the-
          clock negotiations and on the verge of failure throughout two-weeks,
          the Cancun Agreement was reached.

         While this sounds impressive, it is in practice a series of decisions
          codified by the AWG-LCA that flesh out slightly the commitments
          made by nations in the Copenhagen Accord, including the Green
          Climate Fund. COP16, as with other COPs, also saw a series of
          other decisions that continued life in CDM “rulemakings” and, in fact,
          put much more positive life into the CCS in CDM issue. CCS was
          finally decided by the COP that it will be allowed as an eligible project
          technology for the clean development mechanism, and that a whole
          set of modalities and procedures will have to be elaborated and
          approved by COP17. The COPs have also compelled, through a
          series of decisions over time, two other UN treaty agencies, the
          International Maritime Organization and the International Civil
          Aviation Organization, to establish new efficiency standards, ship
          design and operational standards, and a push towards market-based
          mechanisms for these tow international sectors of commerce.




© 2012 Arthur Lee                                                                     23
Primer on the UNFCCC and the Complex Negotiations (6 of 10)

   COP17 or CMP7 Durban

          After over 70 hours of round-the-clock negotiations at the end, and
          setting the record for the longest COP negotiations (to early Sunday
          morning after two weeks), negotiators from over 180 nations agreed
          to mandate the negotiations in the next four years towards a
          “protocol, legal instrument, or an agreed outcome with legal
          force” applicable to all Parties under the UN Framework
          Convention on Climate Change.

          The negotiators further agreed to set a second commitment period
          of the Kyoto Protocol from 1 January 2013 to either end of 2017 or
          end of 2020, with the end date to be negotiated at COP18 Qatar.
          All commitments already pledged by nations under the Kyoto
          Protocol (KP) will be translated into quantified emission limitation
          and reduction commitments (QELROs) by COP18.

          At COP16 Cancun, Japan, Canada, and Russia stated they will not
          sign onto a second commitment of the Kyoto Protocol,

          Canada withdrew from the Kyoto Protocol on 13 Dec 2011.

          Australia is prepared to consider submitting information on its
          QELRO … following the necessary domestic processes …




                        Photos: Screen shots of the webcast between 2:30 and 3:30 am Sunday 11 Dec. European Commissioner Connie Hedegaard and India’s
                        Minister Jayanthi Natarajan confronted each other’s point of issue on “legal outcome.”
© 2012 Arthur Lee                                                                                                                                        24
Primer on the UNFCCC and the Complex Negotiations (7 of 10)

   Cancun Agreement is made effective with a series of decisions at COP17.

          The negotiators agreed to a whole series of decisions negotiated
          via multiple tracks, including the operationalization of the Green
          Climate Fund, which is likely to be the center piece for the transfer
          of monies and the source of funds for a large number of mitigation
          and adaptation actions in the future.

          At Cancun, nations agreed to the establishment of a Green Fund
          with a fast start of $30 billion by 2012 and long term mobilization of
          $100 billion per year by 2020, which could include private sector
          funding. The Fund will be staffed by people from multilateral
          development banks, World Bank, and Global Environment Facility.
          At COP17, the Republic of Korea, Germany and Denmark agreed
          to contribute to the start-up cost of the Green Climate Fund.

          Decisions were reached on:                                               Photo from UNFCCC webcast
                    Operationalizing the Adaptation Committee and formulating
                    the information for national adaptation plans

                    Agreeing to the modalities and procedures of the
                    Technology Executive Committee with a network of regional
                    technology centers

                    Agreeing to the modalities and procedures for conducting
                    CCS projects in the developing world under the Clean
                    Development Mechanism.

          Decision was reached favorably for nations and business
          representatives who support market-based mechanisms. There
          will be a new market-based mechanism in the long term action
          framework, which will continue to be negotiated.




© 2012 Arthur Lee                                                                  Photo Arthur Lee            25
Primer on the UNFCCC and the Complex Negotiations (8 of 10)
   At a crucial period 2:55 am to 3:40 am Sunday morning, 11 December 2011, the
   Durban Platform was agreed (COP-17)..




                                  Photo: IISD coverage of COP17.
© 2012 Arthur Lee                                                                 26
Primer on the UNFCCC and the Complex Negotiations (9 of 10)
   Doha Climate Gateway: Kyoto Protocol and Flex Mechanisms Extended; New
   Market Mechanism Deferred

         Kyoto Protocol is extended from 2013 to 2020 with emission reductions submitted by nations with roughly 14% of global
          emissions (according to an EU press statement). Carry-over of emissions allowances is allowed, though most nations
          have declared not to use them in the second period. Access to the Kyoto flexibility mechanisms is allowed only to those
          nations agreeing to the second commitment period. Australia and Kazakhstan have now signed up to the second period.

         The Clean Development Mechanism’s (CDM) 2% share of proceeds that goes to the Adaptation Fund is maintained at
          2%. However, the transfer of emissions allowances in Joint Implementation projects (conducted between Annex I
          nations) will now be subject to the same 2% proceeds going to the Adaptation Fund. The CDM will continue to be in
          effect with no gap as of 1 January 2013.

         The Long Term Cooperative Action track, which developing nations did not want to close, is now closed with several
          issues deferred to future negotiations in the technical bodies of the Convention, called the Subsidiary Body on Scientific
          and Technological Advice (SBSTA) and the Subsidiary Body on Implementation (SBI). For example, new market
          mechanism modalities and procedures are now deferred to SBSTA negotiations. Non-market approaches will also be
          considered in a new work program under SBSTA.




                                                                                                                                 Source: IISD news coverage
© 2012 Arthur Lee           Photo Arthur Lee                                                                                                              27
Primer on the UNFCCC and the Complex Negotiations (10 of 10)
   Doha Climate Gateway: To consider loss and damage; Durban Platform to begin
   discussion of scope and structure

         The issue of “loss and damages” will be taken up for future negotiations in a new institutional mechanism under the
          UNFCCC with modalities and procedures to be elaborated at COP19 Warsaw. These negotiations will likely enter into
          issues such as: the risk of slow onset events (e.g., sea level rise) and extreme events; non-economic loss and
          damages; impacts of climate change integrated into climate-resilient development processes; and how impacts of
          climate change are affecting patterns of migration, displacement and human mobility.

         With the closing of the LCA track, nations will now focus negotiations towards “a protocol, another legal instrument or an
          agreed outcome with legal force” to be completed by COP21 in 2015, and to come into force by 2020. The Ad Hoc
          Working Group on the Durban Platform for Enhanced Action (ADP) is the single track of negotiations under the UN
          Framework Convention with a negotiating text to be prepared by May 2015 to be ready for completing negotiations at
          COP21. Therefore, elements of the draft negotiating text will have to be considered at COP20.

         In 2012, the ADP has begun considering these elements: (a) Application of the principles of the Convention; (b) Building
          on the experiences and lessons learned from other processes under the Convention and from other multilateral
          processes, as appropriate; (c) The scope, structure and design of the 2015 agreement; (d) Ways of defining and
          reflecting enhanced action. It will also consider, in 2013, ways to increase “ambition” of emissions reductions before
          2020 in a second work stream.




                                                                                                                                   Source: IISD news coverage
© 2012 Arthur Lee                                                                                                                 28

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Global negotiations doha2012p4_associations

  • 1. Global Climate Negotiations Doha COP-18 Negotiations Result in “Doha Climate Gateway” Negotiations from 26 November to 8 December 2012 Brief Assessment: 11 December 2012 Arthur Lee © 2012 Arthur Lee Photos by Arthur Lee excepted where noted 1
  • 2. Summary Assessment of the Doha Climate Gateway: Kyoto Protocol and Flex Mechanisms Extended; New Market Mechanism Deferred  Kyoto Protocol is extended from 2013 to 2020 with emission reductions submitted by nations with roughly 14% of global emissions (according to an EU press statement). Carry-over of emissions allowances is allowed, though most nations have declared not to use them in the second period. Access to the Kyoto flexibility mechanisms is allowed only to those nations agreeing to the second commitment period. Australia and Kazakhstan have now signed up to the second period.  Clean Development Mechanism’s (CDM) 2% share of proceeds that goes to the Adaptation Fund is maintained at 2%. However, the transfer of emissions allowances in Joint Implementation projects (conducted between Annex I nations) will now be subject to the same 2% proceeds going to the Adaptation Fund. The CDM will continue to be in effect with no gap as of 1 January 2013.  Long Term Cooperative Action (LCA) track, which developing nations did not want to close, is now closed with several issues deferred to future negotiations in the technical bodies of the Convention, called the Subsidiary Body on Scientific and Technological Advice (SBSTA) and the Subsidiary Body on Implementation (SBI). For example, new market mechanism modalities and procedures are now deferred to SBSTA negotiations. Non-market approaches will also be considered in a new work program under SBSTA.  The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change and its first legal instrument, the Kyoto Protocol, have had slow, long term impacts on government policies Source: IISD news coverage around the world in the last 18 years. The formal continuation of the Kyoto Protocol into a defined second commitment period, with all its flexibility mechanisms and the institutions established both under the KP and the UNFCCC means that markets and policies driven by them will continue. The carbon markets may not increase levels of activities or carbon prices, but the markets will still likely limp along as emission reductions are continuing to be required. © 2012 Arthur Lee 2
  • 3. Summary Assessment of the Doha Climate Gateway: To Consider Loss and Damages; Durban Platform to Begin Discussion of Scope and Structure.  The issue of “loss and damages” will be taken up for future negotiations in a new institutional mechanism under the UNFCCC with modalities and procedures to be elaborated at COP19 Warsaw. These negotiations will likely enter into issues such as: the risk of slow onset events (e.g., sea level rise) and extreme events; non-economic loss and damages; impacts of climate change integrated into climate-resilient development processes; and how impacts of climate change are affecting patterns of migration, displacement and human mobility.  With the closing of the LCA track, nations will now focus negotiations towards “a protocol, another legal instrument or an agreed outcome with legal force” to be completed by COP21 in 2015, and to come into force by 2020. The Ad Hoc Working Group on the Durban Platform for Enhanced Action (ADP) is the single track of negotiations under the UN Framework Convention with a negotiating text to be prepared by May 2015 to be ready for completing negotiations at COP21. Therefore, elements of the draft negotiating text will have to be considered at COP20.  In 2012, the ADP has begun considering these elements: (a) Application of the principles of the Convention; (b) Building on the experiences and lessons learned from other processes under the Convention and from other multilateral processes, as appropriate; (c) The scope, structure and design of the 2015 agreement; (d) Ways of defining and reflecting enhanced action. It will also consider, in 2013, ways to increase “ambition” of emissions reductions before 2020 in a second work stream. Source: IISD news coverage  With numerous contentious issues deferred, including even “settled” text on shared vision with its issues of historical responsibility, the negotiations going forward will again be fraught with difficulties. Continuing issues such as loss and damages, long term finance, technology development and transfer with its intellectual property rights protection issue, will still pose enormous challenges to future negotiations of the Durban Platform. © 2012 Arthur Lee 3
  • 4. Doha Climate Gateway (Details 1 of 7) Extending the Kyoto Protocol to 2020  After the last three days of almost round-the-clock negotiating sessions stretching to Saturday night 9 pm, the nations of COP18 Doha agreed to a package of decisions which is now called the “Doha Climate Gateway,” building on the Durban Platform of Enhanced Action from COP17 Durban. This summary describes and assesses select issues that were of interest to me as an official Business and Industry NGO (BINGO) observer.  At Doha, the most important single decision that needed to be agreed to by all Parties who ratified the Kyoto Protocol, is the extension of the Kyoto Protocol. At COP17 Durban, nations agreed that the Kyoto Protocol will have a second commitment period to begin 1 January 2013 but they could not agree to an end date. At COP18 Doha, nations finally agreed to a second commitment period ending in 2020. Several nations have withdrawn from while others elected to enter into the Kyoto Protocol’s second commitment period. Canada, Japan, New Zealand and Russia withdrew.  Australia and Kazakhstan have submitted quantified emission limitations and reduction commitments (QELRC) to the second commitment period. Australia committed to 99.5 per cent of 1990 levels over the eight year commitment period (2013-2020), which Australia states is consistent with its Cancun pledge of 5% reduction of emissions by 2020 based on year 2000 emissions with the option to move to 15% or 25% reductions if certain conditions are met. Kazakhstan submitted a QELRC of 95% of 1990 level for the period 2013-2020, with a pledge to reduce 7% by 2020. Connie Hedegaard European Commissioner for Climate Action, and Zhenhua Xie, Minister/Vice-Chairman National © 2012 Arthur Lee Development and Reform Commission, China. Source: IISD news coverage 4
  • 5. Doha Climate Gateway (Details 2 of 7) Kyoto Protocol Goes to Second Commitment Period  The negotiations to extend the Kyoto Protocol to 2020 was greatly hampered by the issue of “carry-over” of unused emissions allowances (“assigned amount units” or AAUs) in the first commitment period. Although the final agreement allows Parties to use such AAUs in the second commitment period, the European Union, Australia, Japan, Norway, Switzerland, Liechtenstein, Monaco inserted political declarations into an annex of the KP decision that they will not use or purchase any carry-over AAUs.  Ukraine made an opposing statement, reflected in the footnote to its QELRC, that there “[s]hould be full carry-over and there is no acceptance of any cancellation or any limitation on use of this legitimately acquired sovereign property.”  Australia’s statement is nuanced. The statement declared: “Australia will not purchase AAUs carried over from the first commitment period. Australia will adhere to arrangements in other countries relating to the transfer of AAUs under any arrangement that Australia may have linking our emissions trading scheme with any other scheme including the European Union emissions trading scheme. Imported AAUs will continue to be ineligible for surrender for compliance by liable entities in Australia's emissions trading scheme.” This would mean companies in Australia will not be able to purchase any AAUs carried over from the first commitment period for compliance with the Australian scheme. © 2012 Arthur Lee Connie Hedegaard submits the EU’s written consent to amend the Kyoto Protocol. Source: IISD news coverage 5
  • 6. Doha Climate Gateway (Details 3 of 7) Long Term Cooperative Action Track Closes  To close the negotiating track under the Bali Action Plan called “Long Term Cooperative Action,” nations agreed to a few easy issues in order to advance other tracks of negotiations. Nations agreed to a shared vision in two relatively simple statements: “Decides that Parties will urgently work towards the deep reduction in global greenhouse gas emissions required to hold the increase in global average temperature below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and to attain a global peaking of global greenhouse gas emissions as soon as possible, consistent with science and as documented in the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, reaffirming that the time frame for peaking will be longer in developing countries; …”  This shared vision avoids any discussion about peaking year and pathways for emissions reduction. The statement then further reaffirms what has already been agreed in previous negotiations: “Also decides that Parties’ efforts should be undertaken on the basis of equity and common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities, and the provision of finance, technology transfer and capacity-building to developing countries in order to support their mitigation and adaptation actions under the Convention, ….” © 2012 Arthur Lee Photo: Arthur Lee 6
  • 7. Doha Climate Gateway (Details 4 of 7) Long Term Cooperative Action Track Closes  Nations also agreed to put several contentious issues into the standing subsidiary bodies under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change for future negotiations, effectively deferring these issues for the future.  Nations decided “to establish a work programme under the Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice to continue the process of clarifying the quantified economy-wide emission reduction targets of developed country Parties with a view to: (a) Identifying common elements for measuring the progress made towards the achievement of the quantified economy-wide emission reduction targets; (b) Ensuring the comparability of efforts among developed country Parties, taking into account differences in their national circumstances; …”  Nations also decided “to establish a work programme to further the understanding of the diversity of the nationally appropriate mitigation actions [for developing nations] … under the Subsidiary Body for Implementation, with a view to facilitating the preparation and implementation of those nationally appropriate mitigation actions,…” © 2012 Arthur Lee Source: Webcast video of the stocktaking informal plenary 7
  • 8. Doha Climate Gateway (Details 5 of 7) New Market Mechanism Deferred to SBSTA Negotiations The negotiations for a new market mechanism was deadlocked at COP18 Doha. No progress could be made. Therefore, the President of COP18 proposed that the modalities and procedures of how such a new mechanism could work to the Subsidiary Body on Scientific and Technological Advice (SBSTA), considering these elements:  (a) Its operation under the guidance and authority of the Conference of the Parties;  (b) The voluntary participation of Parties in the mechanism;  (c) Standards that deliver real, permanent, additional, and verified mitigation outcomes, avoid double counting of effort and achieve a net decrease and/or avoidance of greenhouse gas emissions;  (d) Requirements for the accurate measurement, reporting and verification of emission reductions, emission removals and/or avoided emissions;  (e) Means to stimulate mitigation across broad segments of the economy, which are defined by the participating Parties and may be on a sectoral and/or project-specific basis;  (f) Criteria, including the application of conservative methods, for the establishment, approval and periodic adjustment of ambitious reference levels (crediting thresholds and/or trading caps) and for the periodic issuance of units based on mitigation below a crediting threshold or based on a trading cap;  (g) Criteria for the accurate and consistent recording and tracking of units;  (h) Supplementarity;  (i) A share of proceeds to cover administrative expenses and assist developing country Parties that are particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change to meet the costs of adaptation;  (j) The promotion of sustainable development;  (k) The facilitation of the effective participation of private and public entities;  (l) The facilitation of the prompt start of the mechanism;. © 2012 Arthur Lee 8
  • 9. Doha Climate Gateway (Details 6 of 7) Tech Transfer; Aviation and Marine Fuels emissions, CCS  Developing nations were successful in retaining language in the LCA agreement to “request the Technology Executive Committee, in elaborating its future workplan to initiate the exploration of issues relating to enabling environments and barriers” to technology development and transfer.  This language will again be used as a way to allow discussion of intellectual property rights negotiations, which developed nations oppose, as the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change is not deemed to be the appropriate venue for such negotiations.  The Subsidiary Body on Scientific and Technology Advice (SBSTA) will continue to ask the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) and the International Maritime Organization (IMO) to report on their progress of implementing efficiency standards and working towards a global market-based mechanism. No other language could be negotiated at COP18, thus no new development on a potential tax on emissions from these sectors.  Carbon capture and geological storage (CCS) was considered in the COP18 negotiations under the CDM. Projects that cross national boundaries are to be deferred until negotiations resume in 2016. A global carbon reserve was considered briefly for negotiations but was also deferred until 2016. Such a reserve would have raised costs for CCS projects. © 2012 Arthur Lee Photo: Arthur Lee 9
  • 10. Doha Climate Gateway (Details 7 of 7) Durban Platform to Consider Elements  The Ad Hoc Working Group on the Durban Platform for Enhanced Action (ADP) is the single track of negotiations under the UN Framework Convention with a negotiating text to be prepared by May 2015 to be ready for completing negotiations at COP21 December 2015. Therefore, elements of the draft negotiating text will have to be considered at COP20.  In 2012, the ADP has begun considering these elements: (a) Application of the principles of the Convention; (b) Building on the experiences and lessons learned from other processes under the Convention and from other multilateral processes, as appropriate; (c) The scope, structure and design of the 2015 agreement; (d) Ways of defining and reflecting enhanced action. It will also consider, in 2013, ways to increase “ambition” of emissions reductions before 2020 in a second work stream. © 2012 Arthur Lee Deputy Special Envoy Jonathan Pershing and Special Envoy Todd Stern, United States, Source: Webcast video of COP18/CMP8 closing plenary 10
  • 11. United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Long Term Impacts  The impacts of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change have been accumulating over the long term, and in the last decade have driven national policies (draft or passed), regulatory regimes, even the IMO and ICAO, and projects that include but not limited to the following: – EU Emissions Trading Scheme and the associated monitoring scheme. – National legislations in the EU that implemented the EU ETS in early 2000’s to 2005 – Stimulus money in the EU and US for CCS and renewable energy technologies – Senate and other Congressional bills (USA) over the last several years – New Zealand’s implementation of an emissions trading scheme that caps emissions including carbon content of fuels, which remains in place though New Zealand will not enter the second commitment period of the KP. – Australian National Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reporting System (NGERS) – Australian Clean Energy Futures Bills (passed recently) – California’s AB32 and implementing regulations – Various discussion papers and policies being considered in the larger rapidly developing nations (the BASIC nations of Brazil, South Africa, India, and China). – Kazakhstan imposes emission limits and initiates a national emissions trading scheme as it enters the second period of the KP. – Changes to international shipping and aviation energy efficiency and operational efficiency standards – Clean Development Mechanism projects  Long term impacts can continue to accumulate as the negotiations drive more developing nations to enact laws and regulations for GHG monitoring, reporting, verification, and on technology transfer criteria, and also adaptation actions affecting infrastructure, land use, and access to resources. © 2012 Arthur Lee 11
  • 12. Global Negotiations and Parallel to the History of the Scientific Assessments  The current climate change negotiations by over 190 nations is part of a process that has gone on since the early 1990’s, in parallel to the development of four scientific assessments carried out by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which began in 1988 and culminated in the first global scientific assessment of 1990. The current UN negotiation round is called “COP17,” hosted by South Africa. The IPCC has begun convening several hundred scientists, engineers, technologists, and economists for the next three years to conduct the Fifth Assessment. IPCC UNFCCC “Policy-Relevant, Not Policy “Common But Differentiated Prescriptive Science” Responsibilities” 1990 First Assessment Report 1992 Rio Summit: UNFCCC signed “…emissions resulting from human activities are substantially increasing the atmospheric concentrations…” 1995 Second Assessment Report 1994 UNFCCC entered into force “…balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climate …” 1995 COP1: Berlin Mandate provided differentiated approaches for Annex I and non-Annex I (“developing”) 2001 Third Assessment Report countries “…new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the past 50 years is attributable to human activities.” COP3 negotiations resulted in the 1997 Kyoto Protocol 2007 Fourth Assessment Report 2005 Kyoto Protocol entered into force “Most of the observed increase in globally averaged COP/MOP 1 held in Montreal, Canada temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic (human) greenhouse gas concentrations. “ 2009 Copenhagen Accords; 2010 Cancun Agreements; 2011 Durban Platform; 2012 Doha Climate Gateway © 2012 Arthur Lee 12
  • 13. “SideLights” IPIECA, Chevron, Shell, Statoil, ENI, QatarGas and RasGas in Side Event  IPIECA Side Event “The Expanding Role of Natural Gas,” 30 November, 2012 at COP18 Doha. Photo: Helen Murphy, IPIECA © 2012 Arthur Lee 13
  • 14. “SideLights” Chevron, Green Gulf Launch Solar Test Facility 2 Dec 2012  The Qatar National Vision 2030 calls for 1.8 Gigawatts of Solar Energy, or approximately 16% of its energy generation portfolio. To support the first step in this effort, Chevron and partner Green Gulf launched the Solar Test Facility on 2 December 2012 with Her Highness Sheikha Moza bint Nasser, the queen of the Emir, who in her role as the Chairperson of the Qatar Foundation officially launched the generation of the facility. Five Ministerial-level Qatar officials also joined the event, including the President of the COP-18, His Excellency Mr. Abdullah bin Hamad Al-Attiyah, and Christiana Figueres, the Executive Secretary of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. U.S. Ambassador to Qatar Susan Ziadeh also attended. Sheikha Moza opens solar test facility  The Solar Test Facility is seven acres of test site supporting approximately 200 kW of solar photovoltaic systems and 200 kW of solar thermal systems, plus testing a mini smart-grid with battery storage. Around 20 PV products will be evaluated, including crystalline silicon, thin film, and concentrating PV. Several solar thermal collectors and applications will be tested, including solar cooling and desalination. Operating parameters such as tracking, cleaning frequencies and system scales will also be studied. © 2012 Arthur Lee 14
  • 15. “SideLights” Chevron, Green Gulf Launch Solar Test Facility, 2 Dec 2012 Photo: Aisha Al Musallam / HHOPL Christiana Figureres, UNFCCC. Photos: Arthur Lee Photos: Arthur Lee © 2012 Arthur Lee 15
  • 16. “SideLights” Carbon Capture and Storage Association and University of Texas Side Event  Capacity Building and Education Perspectives, Undergraduate and Graduate Training in Research and Applications of CCS. Moderated by Katherine Romanek (UT Austin, left). Luke Warren CCSA, second from left. Tim Dixon IEAGHG, third from right. Photo:s Arthur Lee © 2012 Arthur Lee 16
  • 17. Appendix Brief History of Global Climate Negotiations © 2012 Arthur Lee Photos by Arthur Lee excepted where noted 17
  • 18. Global Climate Change Negotiations: Background and Brief History Arthur Lee Observer from the Business & Industry NGO Community Updated: December 2012 All photos by Arthur Lee except where noted. © 2012 Arthur Lee
  • 19. Primer on the UNFCCC and the Complex Negotiations (1 of 10) This primer is to provide a brief, high-level description of selected history and the complexity of the process of these UN negotiations. The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change is an international treaty that was signed by President George Bush in Photos by Arthur Lee 1992 at a summit at the Rio de Janeiro. The international treaty is called a Framework for good reasons. It is only a framework and details were left to be further negotiated over time. The UNFCCC was ratified by over 184 nations in 1994 and came into force as international law at that time. The UNFCCC recognizes the science of climate change, talked about “preventing dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system,” and sets out a framework for nations to reduce greenhouse gas emissions voluntarily. The UNFCCC sets out two subsidiary negotiating bodies called: Subsidiary Body on Implementation (SBI) Subsidiary Body on Scientific and Technological Advice Photo: Screenshot from UNFCCC webcast (SBSTA) ..that convenes twice a year to negotiate all kinds of details in rough categories according to its names. In practice, the thousands of negotiators who come to the SBI and SBSTA meetings complete their negotiations of each set of details and then towards the second meeting (end of the year) join the Conference of Parties (COP) to table their completed texts to the ministers who attend the COP, where the ministers then make their decisions. At each COP, there are always decisions made. © 2012 Arthur Lee 19
  • 20. Primer on the UNFCCC and the Complex Negotiations (2 of 10) From the Berlin Mandate to the Kyoto Protocol At COP1 Berlin, Parties to the Convention agreed to the Berlin Mandate, which mandated a roadmap to completing negotiating a Protocol by COP3 at Kyoto. In December 1997 at COP3 at Kyoto, the over 184 nations after long two weeks of round-the-clock negotiations came up with the Kyoto Protocol, which was a legally binding international treaty. In 2005, it entered into force when a threshold number of nations and their emissions were accounted – 55 nations with at least 55% of emissions – submitted their instruments of ratification to the United Nations. In these negotiations, the importance of having texts, and making progress towards texts, is paramount. Each decision, whether it is a relatively simple one to a complex text of the Kyoto Protocol, can still represent years of negotiating efforts. For example, the Marrakech Accords that set out the first complete set of rules and criteria for the clean development mechanism (Article 12 of the Kyoto Protocol) took at least two years to complete. After they were completed, negotiations in subsequent years then turned to operationalizing the CDM Executive Board and its “modalities and procedures,” which means in practice what the Executive Board does, how it does its work, and its membership and processes. In many ways, that is still going on in the current negotiations with the focus on streamlining, reforming, and refocusing geographically its modalities and procedures. Other mechanisms, such as the Joint Implementation provisions (Article 6 of the Kyoto Protocol), took another two years of negotiations before a Joint Implementation Steering Committee (JISC, similar to the function of the CDM Executive Board) was operationalized with modalities, procedures, and getting the members in place to actually start doing any work of reviewing and approving Joint Implementation projects. © 2012 Arthur Lee 20
  • 21. Primer on the UNFCCC and the Complex Negotiations (3 of 10) From COP13 or CMP3  The Conference of Parties (COP) when serving as the Meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol is called COP/MOP or CMP (short). COP13 in Bali was also the meeting of CMP3.  The CMP decides on issues negotiated specifically under the Kyoto Protocol, such as the Clean Development Mechanism.  For example, with Canada’s withdrawal from the KP in 2011, both the US and Canada will become observer states in the CMP negotiations because they are not Parties to the KP.  In 2007, with lack of sufficient progress since the entry into force of the Kyoto Protocol (since 2005), the nations which are “Parties” to the Kyoto Protocol again negotiated in a two-week period, round-the- clock, and with great emotional outbursts, settled on the Bali Action Plan. The Bali Action Plan put all Parties on a negotiating roadmap towards COP15 to complete negotiations about two major issues: – The continuation (or not) of the Kyoto Protocol. Certainly in the minds of developing nations, there was no question that the KP must continue – The beginning of negotiations about “long term cooperative action” which numerous nations, including the US, EU, Australia, Canada felt would be the way towards a new comprehensive agreement for all nations  For these two purposes, two plenary bodies are used to negotiate such issues. – Ad Hoc Working Group on the Further Commitments of the Kyoto Protocol (AWG-KP) – Ad Hoc Working Group on Long Term Cooperative Action (AWG-LCA) © 2012 Arthur Lee 21
  • 22. Primer on the UNFCCC and the Complex Negotiations (4 of 10) COP15 or CMP5 at Copenhagen  For over two years and amidst numerous added negotiating rounds, the more than 100 nations met and finally tried to fashion several texts for negotiations at COP15 Copenhagen. However, as we all know now, agreement was never reached for the “further commitments of the Kyoto Protocol” and the LCA negotiations yielded a three page document, which was never completely agreed in plenary by the entire COP17 body at Copenhagen, became this “political agreement” called the Copenhagen Accord. Given all the reviews of failure given by observers and the media with high expectations, this was a remarkable political agreement personally negotiated between several heads of governments, including the Presidents of the US, China, Brazil, and Prime Minister of India, but sidelining the European Union leaders.  In hindsight, the key success of the Copenhagen Accord was that the negotiations themselves compelled a number of nations to pledge a series of commitments and actions, not necessarily targets with time tables, that would show to the world that these nations can take on such responsibilities. Outside of the Copenhagen Accord, there were also decisions that continued the negotiating tracks of a large number of decisions, including a decision text that kept alive the CCS in CDM issue. Other decision texts kept alive the issues of sectoral credit trading and longer term future of additional market mechanisms © 2012 Arthur Lee 22
  • 23. Primer on the UNFCCC and the Complex Negotiations (5 of 10) COP16 or CMP6 at Cancun  The Copenhagen Accord never received formal recognition by the entire body of the COP. However, throughout 2010 and into the COP16 negotiating sessions, negotiators met to parse out all the elements of the Copenhagen Accord and set them up for formal negotiations and codifications as decisions by the supreme body of the UNFCCC, the COP. Therefore, at COP16, again with round-the- clock negotiations and on the verge of failure throughout two-weeks, the Cancun Agreement was reached.  While this sounds impressive, it is in practice a series of decisions codified by the AWG-LCA that flesh out slightly the commitments made by nations in the Copenhagen Accord, including the Green Climate Fund. COP16, as with other COPs, also saw a series of other decisions that continued life in CDM “rulemakings” and, in fact, put much more positive life into the CCS in CDM issue. CCS was finally decided by the COP that it will be allowed as an eligible project technology for the clean development mechanism, and that a whole set of modalities and procedures will have to be elaborated and approved by COP17. The COPs have also compelled, through a series of decisions over time, two other UN treaty agencies, the International Maritime Organization and the International Civil Aviation Organization, to establish new efficiency standards, ship design and operational standards, and a push towards market-based mechanisms for these tow international sectors of commerce. © 2012 Arthur Lee 23
  • 24. Primer on the UNFCCC and the Complex Negotiations (6 of 10) COP17 or CMP7 Durban After over 70 hours of round-the-clock negotiations at the end, and setting the record for the longest COP negotiations (to early Sunday morning after two weeks), negotiators from over 180 nations agreed to mandate the negotiations in the next four years towards a “protocol, legal instrument, or an agreed outcome with legal force” applicable to all Parties under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. The negotiators further agreed to set a second commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol from 1 January 2013 to either end of 2017 or end of 2020, with the end date to be negotiated at COP18 Qatar. All commitments already pledged by nations under the Kyoto Protocol (KP) will be translated into quantified emission limitation and reduction commitments (QELROs) by COP18. At COP16 Cancun, Japan, Canada, and Russia stated they will not sign onto a second commitment of the Kyoto Protocol, Canada withdrew from the Kyoto Protocol on 13 Dec 2011. Australia is prepared to consider submitting information on its QELRO … following the necessary domestic processes … Photos: Screen shots of the webcast between 2:30 and 3:30 am Sunday 11 Dec. European Commissioner Connie Hedegaard and India’s Minister Jayanthi Natarajan confronted each other’s point of issue on “legal outcome.” © 2012 Arthur Lee 24
  • 25. Primer on the UNFCCC and the Complex Negotiations (7 of 10) Cancun Agreement is made effective with a series of decisions at COP17. The negotiators agreed to a whole series of decisions negotiated via multiple tracks, including the operationalization of the Green Climate Fund, which is likely to be the center piece for the transfer of monies and the source of funds for a large number of mitigation and adaptation actions in the future. At Cancun, nations agreed to the establishment of a Green Fund with a fast start of $30 billion by 2012 and long term mobilization of $100 billion per year by 2020, which could include private sector funding. The Fund will be staffed by people from multilateral development banks, World Bank, and Global Environment Facility. At COP17, the Republic of Korea, Germany and Denmark agreed to contribute to the start-up cost of the Green Climate Fund. Decisions were reached on: Photo from UNFCCC webcast Operationalizing the Adaptation Committee and formulating the information for national adaptation plans Agreeing to the modalities and procedures of the Technology Executive Committee with a network of regional technology centers Agreeing to the modalities and procedures for conducting CCS projects in the developing world under the Clean Development Mechanism. Decision was reached favorably for nations and business representatives who support market-based mechanisms. There will be a new market-based mechanism in the long term action framework, which will continue to be negotiated. © 2012 Arthur Lee Photo Arthur Lee 25
  • 26. Primer on the UNFCCC and the Complex Negotiations (8 of 10) At a crucial period 2:55 am to 3:40 am Sunday morning, 11 December 2011, the Durban Platform was agreed (COP-17).. Photo: IISD coverage of COP17. © 2012 Arthur Lee 26
  • 27. Primer on the UNFCCC and the Complex Negotiations (9 of 10) Doha Climate Gateway: Kyoto Protocol and Flex Mechanisms Extended; New Market Mechanism Deferred  Kyoto Protocol is extended from 2013 to 2020 with emission reductions submitted by nations with roughly 14% of global emissions (according to an EU press statement). Carry-over of emissions allowances is allowed, though most nations have declared not to use them in the second period. Access to the Kyoto flexibility mechanisms is allowed only to those nations agreeing to the second commitment period. Australia and Kazakhstan have now signed up to the second period.  The Clean Development Mechanism’s (CDM) 2% share of proceeds that goes to the Adaptation Fund is maintained at 2%. However, the transfer of emissions allowances in Joint Implementation projects (conducted between Annex I nations) will now be subject to the same 2% proceeds going to the Adaptation Fund. The CDM will continue to be in effect with no gap as of 1 January 2013.  The Long Term Cooperative Action track, which developing nations did not want to close, is now closed with several issues deferred to future negotiations in the technical bodies of the Convention, called the Subsidiary Body on Scientific and Technological Advice (SBSTA) and the Subsidiary Body on Implementation (SBI). For example, new market mechanism modalities and procedures are now deferred to SBSTA negotiations. Non-market approaches will also be considered in a new work program under SBSTA. Source: IISD news coverage © 2012 Arthur Lee Photo Arthur Lee 27
  • 28. Primer on the UNFCCC and the Complex Negotiations (10 of 10) Doha Climate Gateway: To consider loss and damage; Durban Platform to begin discussion of scope and structure  The issue of “loss and damages” will be taken up for future negotiations in a new institutional mechanism under the UNFCCC with modalities and procedures to be elaborated at COP19 Warsaw. These negotiations will likely enter into issues such as: the risk of slow onset events (e.g., sea level rise) and extreme events; non-economic loss and damages; impacts of climate change integrated into climate-resilient development processes; and how impacts of climate change are affecting patterns of migration, displacement and human mobility.  With the closing of the LCA track, nations will now focus negotiations towards “a protocol, another legal instrument or an agreed outcome with legal force” to be completed by COP21 in 2015, and to come into force by 2020. The Ad Hoc Working Group on the Durban Platform for Enhanced Action (ADP) is the single track of negotiations under the UN Framework Convention with a negotiating text to be prepared by May 2015 to be ready for completing negotiations at COP21. Therefore, elements of the draft negotiating text will have to be considered at COP20.  In 2012, the ADP has begun considering these elements: (a) Application of the principles of the Convention; (b) Building on the experiences and lessons learned from other processes under the Convention and from other multilateral processes, as appropriate; (c) The scope, structure and design of the 2015 agreement; (d) Ways of defining and reflecting enhanced action. It will also consider, in 2013, ways to increase “ambition” of emissions reductions before 2020 in a second work stream. Source: IISD news coverage © 2012 Arthur Lee 28