Day 1 Nationally-Appropriate Mitigation Actions Concept

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Arab Referencial Framework for Improving End-User Energy Efficiency of Electric Power

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Day 1 Nationally-Appropriate Mitigation Actions Concept

  1. 1. Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions Concept Opportunities and Challenges for MENA Countries Workshop on National Energy Efficiency Action Plans Amman, 5 – 6 December 2010 Rafik MISSAOUIEnergy & Environment Expert
  2. 2. Content Origin of NAMAs concept NAMAs concept Overview NAMAs implementation modalities Opportunities and challenges of MENA region Conclusion and recommendations for MENA region
  3. 3. Origin of NAMAs conceptUnited Nation Framework Convention for Climate Change  Ultimate objective: “avoid dangerous anthropogenic interferences with climate system” (Article 2).  Main principle : Common but differentiated responsibilities  Parties commitments:  Non binding commitment for industrialized countries to bringing back the level of their emissions for the year 2000 to those of the year 1990.  Non reduction objective for developing countries  Industrialized countries have to help developing countries to mitigate GHG emissions and adapt to the harmful effects of global warming, by providing them financial and technology resources (Article 4 point 5). UNFCCC did not allow to reach emission reduction objective. World emissions have significantly increased between 1990 and 2000
  4. 4. Origin of NAMAs concept Protocol of Kyoto Main dates: Adopted in 1997 and entered in force in 2005 Quantitative objective: Reduce the anthropogenic GHG emissions of industrialized countries (Annex I) by 5.2% on average against 1990 levels over the five-year period 2008-2012. Legal status : Binding commitment for annex I countries Developing countries involvement through the Clean Development Mechanism : Annex I countries can purchase Certified Emission Reduction resulting from GHG mitigation projects in developing countries (Non Annex I) and count them towards their Kyoto emission targets. Two years before the end of commitment period, we are still far from reaching the reduction objective. The globalemissions have increased by 70% between 1970 and 2004 (IPCC 4th report)
  5. 5. Origin of NAMAs concept Clean Development Mechanism assessment Number of registered projects largely under the expectation (Only 2520 projects registered, at the end of October 2010) Only few developing countries have profited from CDM (China 42% of registered projects, India 22%, Brazil 7%, and all Africa 2%). Important sectors such as demand-side energy efficiency, transportation are so far hardly represented in CDM. Low capacity of the mechanism to achieve national policy changes toward low carbon development (project-based mechanism). CDM is considered by developing countries to be a complicated mechanism with high transaction costs. How to involve efficiently developing countries in global warming fighting?
  6. 6. Origin of NAMAs concept The Fourth IPCC report Global GHG emissions have increased by 70% between 1970 and 2004. The Protocol’s target of 5.2% of GHG emission reduction for industrialized countries by 2012 will not be enough to avoid dangerous anthropogenic interferences with the climate system. Global warming should not exceed 2°C by 2100 to be free of the danger climate. To achieve this goal, the global emissions should be reduced by 50% by 2050. To this end:  Reducing developed countries emissions to less than 40% by 2020 compared to 1990  Limiting the trajectory emissions of Developing countries to between 15% and 30% by 2020 compared to the business as usual scenario.Urgent need for new mechanisms to involve developing countries at significant level
  7. 7. Origin of NAMAs concept Bali Roadmap – Bali Action PlanParagraph 1 (b, ii) of the Bali Action Plan….(Parties) Decides to launch a comprehensive process to enablethe full, effective and sustained implementation of the Conventionthrough long-term cooperative action, now, up to and beyond2012, in order to reach an agreed outcome and adopt a decision atits fifteenth session, by addressing, inter alia:b) Enhanced national/international action on mitigation of climatechange, including, Inter alia, consideration of:ii) “Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs) bydeveloping country Parties in the context of sustainabledevelopment, supported and enabled by technology, financing andcapacity building, in a Measurable, reportable and verifiable manner“.
  8. 8. Origin of NAMAs concept Bali Roadmap – Bali Action Plan Discussion on new mechanisms (sectoral approach, global approach, etc.) started in 2005 in Montreal. The origin of NAMAs concept is formally the Bali Roadmap, BAP involved, for the first time, the developing countries in a shared vision with the developed countries and in a long-term cooperation process, based on the fundamental principle of the UNFCCC, namely “the common but differentiated responsibility”. But, only few information was given about NAMAs in BAP which gave only some wide principles : Paragraph b) ii of the BAPBali Action Plan was a very important step toward newaccord post 2012, but leaves a lot of pending issues…
  9. 9. Origin of NAMAs concept Copenhagen Accord“Non Annex 1 parties to the convention will implement mitigation actions, including those to be submitted to the secretariat by non Annex 1 parties in the format given in Appendix 2 by 31 January 2010, in the context of sustainable development. Mitigation actions subsequently taken and envisaged by Non Annex 1, including national inventory reports, shall be communicated through national communications every two years …. Mitigation actions will be subject to their domestic measurement, reporting and verification the result of which will be reported through their national communications every two years. Nationally appropriate mitigation actions seeking international support will be recorded in a registry along with relevant technology, finance and capacity building support. These supported nationally appropriate mitigation actions will be subject to international measurement, reporting and verification in accordance with guidelines adopted by the Conference of Parties.”
  10. 10. NAMAs concept Overview What is a NAMAs? Bali Action Plan and Copenhagen Accord did not provide a specific definition of NAMAs. The concept of NAMAs can cover any action or measure as long as it can be shown that it reduces emissions In principle, NAMAs can range from individual projects to national policies. This diversity of the concept coverage clearly appears in NAMAs submissions of developing countries to the UNFCCC after Copenhagen Agreement.
  11. 11. NAMAs concept Overview Categories of NAMAs Unilateral NAMAs: Mitigation actions undertaken by developing countries with their own resources; Supported NAMAs: Additional actions enabled and supported by technology, financing and capacity from developed countries (Annex I and Annex II). Crediting NAMAs: Some countries propose to consider NAMAs as a source of carbon credits to allow developed countries to meet part of their GHG reduction commitments However, the Copenhagen Accord did not indicate clearly whether NAMAs are eligible to carbon credits
  12. 12. NAMAs concept Overview Categories of NAMAs Categories of NAMAs (Copenhagen Accord) 1,8 GHG Emission Business as usual emissions 1,6 Unilateral 1,4 NAMAs 1,2 1 Supported 0,8 NAMAs 0,6 Mitigation emissions 0,4 0,2 0Base Year 2020
  13. 13. NAMAs concept Overview Scopes of NAMAsAnalysis from NAMAs submissions of developing countries to the UNFCCC after Copenhagen Agreement: National emission neutrality targets National emission intensity targets: (China targets -40% to - 45% of the carbon intensity by 2020 compared to 2005, India - 20% to - 25%). National emission targets in terms of a deviation from business as usual scenario Sectoral emission targets: Sectoral targets may be absolute, intensity-based (sectoral crediting) or in terms of a deviation from business as usual scenario (sectoral trading) Specific actions at national and/or local level: all emission reduction policies and measures (PAMs)
  14. 14. NAMAs concept Overview Scopes of NAMAs Unilateral Conditional to Unclear support Target (climate Maldives Bhutan, Costa Rica, neutrality) Papua New GuineaTarget (below BAU) Brazil, Chile, Mexico, Papua Indonesia, New Guinea, South Israel, Mexico, Africa Korea, SingaporeTarget (below base Moldova Antigua and Barbuda, year) Marshall IslandsTarget (intensity) China, IndiaStrategies, policies, Colombia Afghanistan, Congo, Ivory Coast, Eritrea, Togo, specific projects Madagascar, Sierra Armenia, Benin, Cameroon, Leone, Brazil, Chile, Central African Republic, Chad, Colombia, Ghana, Gabon, Jordan, Macedonia, Tunisia, Peru Mauritania, Mongolia, Morocco, San Marino, Togo
  15. 15. NAMAs concept Overview Scopes of NAMAs China case Projection of mitigation emission in 2020 (G TCO2) 16 13,3 12,2 China case Réduction of Carbon intensity = 40% to 45 %1,2 t co2/1000$1,1 1 BAU emission - 40% of carbon - 45% of carbon (average growth rate intensity intensity0,9 1990-2005 = 2005-2020)0,8 0.75 reduction of carbon intensity = 40%0,70,6 reduction of carbon 0.450,5 intensity = 45%0,4 0.410,3 1990 2005 2020
  16. 16. NAMAs concept Overview Legal aspects of NAMAs Developing countries position:  NAMAs are voluntary and should correspond to the capabilities of each Party.  Actions under NAMAs should be in line with national development priorities, while also reducing emissions (G-77 and China, 2009).  Willingness to undertake mitigation actions is closely depend on the effective financial, technological and capacity building support provide by developed countries Position of some developed countries (USA, Japan, Canada, Austria, etc): At least for some developing countries (such as major emitters and emerging economies) NAMAs should be of the same kind as actions by developed countries.But it is clear that we are very probably heading towards a non-binding regime for developing countries.
  17. 17. NAMAs implementation modalities Nothing is clearly defined yet regarding detailed implementation modalities Subject still open for discussions and negotiations during Cancun COP and further meetings However, three principles are already agreed in Copenhagen Accord :  The Measuring, Reporting and Verification (MRV) of NAMAs emission impact  The Measuring, Reporting and Verification (MRV) of NAMAs support  NAMAs international registering
  18. 18. NAMAs implementation modalities The Measuring, Reporting and Verification (MRV) of NAMAs emission impact The Bali Action Plan has explicitly linked NAMAs to MRV in the paragraph 1(b) (ii) “Nationally appropriate mitigation actions…in a measurable, reportable and verifiable manner”. Standard of MRV  A national MRV system for unilateral NAMAs  A system that depends on MRV International operating rules of the UNFCCC for supported NAMAs (China and India insist on sovereignty) MRV approach :  Bottom up assessment (USA position)  Top down (China position)
  19. 19. NAMAs implementation modalitiesThe Measuring, Reporting and Verification (MRV) of NAMAs emission impact Scope Elements for MRVNational emission Inventory of national emissionsneutrality targets Means of neutralization (GHG sequestration)National emission  Selection of the base yearintensity targets  Establishing total national emissions and national GDP for the base year and the end year  Dividing emissions by GDP and comparing the values in the base and end yearNational emission Selection of the base yeartargets in terms of a Development of the reference emission scenario (Constantdeviation from intensity, Constant growth rate…)business as usual  Development of mitigation scenario (modelling of GDP growth, modelling of the link between GDP and emissions)Sectoral emission The same than before but at sectoral leveltargetsSpecific actions at The MRV has to be designed specificallynational and/or locallevel
  20. 20. NAMAs implementation modalities The Measuring, Reporting and Verification of NAMAs support Bali Action Plan made clear links between NAMAs implementation and developed countries support. All Parties, particularly developing countries, agree to set up an MRV mechanism for support provided by developed countries (financial, technology and capacity building). Many issues are still open to discussion in the next COP, particularly Cancun Meeting Parties :  How to define the additionality of support for climate as called in Copenhagen Accord “new and additional”?  How can climate-related finance be tracked?  How to avoid the deviation of Official Development Assistance (ODA)?  What will be the mechanism of financial resources are allocation etc.?
  21. 21. NAMAs concept Overview NAMAs international registering According to the Copenhagen Accord:  Non-Annex I countries have to report on the implementation of unilateral mitigation actions through biannual national communications.  Supported NAMAs are to be recorded in a registry, together with technological, financial and capacity building support. Many issues are still open :  What kind of NAMAs will be registered? Only supported (China and India position) or also unilateral NAMAs (South Korea and USA position)?  What are the form, status and nature of the body that will govern the register?  What should be registered? Actions themselves support needed, emissions reductions, sustainable benefits, etc.  Would the register be used for crediting NAMAs?
  22. 22. Opportunities and challenges of MENA region Issues for MENA countries Promoting sustainable development: An opportunity to integrate mitigation in development strategies (NAMAs must fit within the host countrys sustainable development). Draining funding for countries clean development:  Parties have agreed in CA for the mobilization of new, additional, sufficient, predictable and sustainable financial resources (Paragraph 1, e of the Bali Action Plan) :  30 billions $ on the 2010-2012 period and 100 billions $ per year by 2020 with a balanced distribution between adaptation and mitigation.  Over the 2010-2012 period, Europe has committed itself to mobilizing 10.6 billion dollars, Japan 11 billion $ and U.S. 3.6 billion$. Profiting from advanced technology: Commitment of developed countries to transfer clean technologies to developing countries. Capacities building: Commitment of developed countries to provide capacity building to developing countries.
  23. 23. Opportunities and challenges of MENA regionNAMAs and National Energy Efficiency Action Plans of MENA countries  NAEEAPs should be developed under NAMAs, since it can meet fully the requirements of this concept.  Need first to define NAMAs consistence by selecting the actions with a rational methodology and objective criteria:  Co-benefits of the actions and impact in terms of sustainable development  Economic analysis and assessment whether the action is “no- regret” or “regret”  Assessment of nationally and internationally financing need;  Attractiveness for donors  Potential for leveraging private investments  Kind and simplicity of required MRV: metric or GHG emission, top down or bottom up, etc.  Aggregate the actions in NAMAs: global approach, sectoral approach, project or program approach, etc.
  24. 24. Opportunities and challenges of MENA regionNAMAs and National Energy Efficiency Action Plans of MENA countries  For each defined NAMAs, the country has to develop the description document that could be structured as following:  Country and sector Background;  Description of the planned activities;  Rationale behind the activities: National strategy that constitute the framework of the activities, link to emission reduction, planned impacts of the measures (direct, indirect, co-benefits);  Responsibility of implementation;  Mode of implementation of the activities;  Schedule of the implementation, including uncertainties and risks;  MRV: indicators to verify the implementation, framework, etc.;  Support need in terms of financing, technological and technical assistance.
  25. 25. Opportunities and challenges of MENA region Example of NAMAs in MENA region: TunisiaNAMAs selection: Sector screening Sector Transport Building Industry Diverse Waste Description Bus rapid Energy audit Promotion of Solar Plan: 40 Diversion of transit for tertiary cogeneration public-private organic waste buildings projects from land filling  AssessmentGHG reduction potential very high medium high very high very highSimplicity and basis of low high high high mediumGHG calculationNon-GHG benefits very high medium medium high very highMRV metric medium medium high high mediumEconomic savings due to high medium high high mediumGHG reduction measuresSimplicity of high high high high mediumdetermination offinancing needs and splitof unilateral andsupported contributionsPotential for leveraging medium medium high high mediumprivate investmentsDonor attractiveness high high high high highOngoing no yes yes no yes
  26. 26. Conclusion and recommendations for MENA region Example of NAMAs in MENA region: Tunisia Installed RE capacity (MW)National Strategy wind solar others Evolution of primary energy consumption (toe)  Target : reduce by 40% the primary energy consumption 40 % by 2030 compared to the business as usual scenario. 24 %  RE target: 4500 MW of RE 12 % for electricity generation capacity by 2030, Real consumption baseline
  27. 27. Conclusion and recommendations for MENA region Example of NAMAs in MENA region: Tunisia Tunisian Solar Plan NAMAs description Description of the planned activities: 40 projects in the fields of:  Solar energy,  Wind energy,  Energy efficiency,  Biogas and studies. Rationale behind the activities:  Existence of active long term national strategy for energy efficiency and renewable energy;  Integration of the Tunisian Solar Plan into a regional initiative;  Emission reductions of 1.5 MtCO2e per year, compared to the current yearly emissions in Tunisia of 35 MtCO2e;  Annual energy saving of 660 kteo, which is 22% of the overall forecast for Tunisias energy consumption by 2016.
  28. 28. Conclusion and recommendations for MENA region Example of NAMAs in MENA region: Tunisia Responsibility of implementation: National Energy Conservation Agency (ANME). . Mode of implementation: mainly by private sector. Schedule of the implementation: 2010-2016. MRV of emissions reductions: bottom up approach based mostly on metric indicators (m² of collectors, installed MW, m² of houses isolated, etc.). Support need:  Total cost: 1 852 Million Euro,  National contribution: 1 472 Million Euro,  Need of international support: 371 Million Euro
  29. 29. Conclusion and recommendations for MENA region Recommendations for MENA countries Mitigation strategies development Sector screening and NAMAs portfolio development Capacity building on NAMAs  GHG emission inventory and national communication development  NAMAs identification, assessment and development  Energy and GHG emission indicators  MRV system setting up  Fund rising related to Mitigation and Adaptation Keeping watch on the negotiations and the prospects of the concept evolution Fund rising: particularly the Early financing (starting financing) of 30 billion $ for capacity building agreed in Copenhagen Accord.
  30. 30. Tank youRafik MISSAOUI - ALCORr.missaoui@alcor.com.tn

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