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Aviation
 finance
Fasten your
seatbelts
www.pwc.com
January 2013
2 | Aviation finance | PwC
Foreword
Shamshad Ali – Partner
T: +44 (0)20 7804 9600
M: +44 (0)7714 7 08756
E: shamshad.ali@uk.pwc.com
Aviation financing is a hot topic and
likely to remain so over the coming
years, as the demand for financing
deliveries of new aircraft peaks at a time
when long term financing becomes
unattractive for some of the
incumbent banks.
On the one hand, record order books of
aircraft manufacturers reflect a period
of strong orders buoyed by both new
aircraft types and strong demand in the
emerging markets. On the other, there
are a number of headwinds in the
aircraft finance market which may make
these orders more difficult to finance,
and potentially, more expensive.
The ongoing global economic
uncertainty, the European Sovereign
debt crisis, the recent downgrading of
several European banks and increased
difficulty of accessing US dollar funding
has raised funding pressure. A number
of predominantly European banks who
have historically played a key role are
retracting from the market. This is
causing tensions in the funding market,
which have been heightened by the
ongoing bank deleveraging process,
which in part reflects the impact of new
regulations such as Basel III.
Conversely, in tough economic times
and a low interest rate environment
attractive yields are harder to find.
Investors are looking for hard assets
with good returns.
PwC | Aviation finance | 3
Neil Hampson – Partner
T: +44 (0)20 7804 9405
M: +44 (0)78414 97220
E: neil.r.hampson@uk.pwc.com
As a result we expect attractive
opportunities to emerge in the aviation
financing sector for investors looking to
deploy large amounts of capital
efficiently.
Already we have seen new investment
flowing into this sector as funds backed
by the governments of China, Singapore
and UAE have made sizeable investments
in this space. Other institutional
investors such as sovereign wealth
funds, insurance companies, pension
funds and certain private equity funds
could also be interested in investing in
aircraft assets.
We expect acceleration in the ongoing
shift of financing from the traditional
aviation banks in the West to new
players from the East.
This report is based on a number of
interviews with key personnel in this
market including CEO/CFOs of leading
leasing businesses, airlines, European
banks and other financial institutions in
Asia, ME and Europe to understand and
analyse the latest trends in the market.
We hope this research will better inform
the investor community. Despite the
challenges, aircraft financing is an
opportunity for new entrants to earn
attractive yields, provided the asset type
and the timing is right!
4 | Aviation finance | PwC
At a glance
Current orders for new aircraft are at
unprecedented levels, driven by the
replacement of ageing fleets in North
America, demand for fuel efficient
aircraft and market growth in the
emerging markets.
Though airlines are currently facing a
number of headwinds, orders are
expected to be fulfilled. Historically, an
airline’s financial performance has not
had a significant impact on their ability
to secure and finance new aircraft
deliveries. Although airlines can either
defer or cancel orders, there is an
operational requirement to re-fleet
the global aircraft pool with more
efficient aircraft.
The industry has seen record
aircraft orders driven by the
operational needs of airlines.
Finding funds for these orders
will be a challenge
Aircraft deliveries over the next three-
five years will need to be financed at a
time when liquidity is scarcer and risk is
being repriced. The key challenge for
airlines, who have record orders in
place, will be to find financing at a
competitive rate in an exceptionally
tough economic environment.
Based on our interviews, we believe that
financing is likely to be found but
potentially, at a higher price. This is
already attracting new investors
particularly from the Far East, with a
number of banks from Japan and China
snapping up aviation assets. We expect
this trend to accelerate.
But, more of this will need to happen
and airlines and lessors will need to be
more inventive and work harder to find
additional sources of funding and
potentially develop new products.
There have been recent attempts for
example the Doric II (UK-listed)
Emirates financing vehicle and German
bond backed by an aircraft mortgage (a
new product first used by Nord LB in
July 2012).
Finance is likely to be available
for the new aircraft as new
investors from the East flock
to the sector, replacing the
traditional banks from the
West but…
PwC | Aviation finance | 5
Although it already costs more to
arrange financing within the aviation
industry compared to a few years ago,
we expect the cost of financing could
increase further as regulatory changes
take shape in particular Basel III and the
implementation of the new Aircraft
Sector Understanding (ASU) from 2013.
What’s more, as the challenges that the
banking industry faces, and in
particular the European banks who
traditionally have been dominant in this
space, continue to play out, we expect to
see some banks retreating from this
market which will intensify the
competition to obtain aircraft financing
and the cost of financing will likely
further increase.
Time will tell what if any impact the
higher cost of financing will have on the
cost of travel.
…financing will be expensive as
regulatory changes and economic
conditions make capital scarcer.
It remains to be seen who will pay
for the incremental costs.
As airlines take delivery of new aircraft,
owners must be found for second-hand
aircraft. In the past, airlines from
developing economies have taken these,
which has created a natural flow of
ownership. This is changing as new and
smaller airlines place orders for new
aircraft direct with manufacturers,
often taking advantage of Export Credit
Agency (ECA) finance. This, together
with concerns of oversupply of some
aircraft types, particularly narrow body,
could put aircraft values and lease rates
under pressure.
These factors could have a significant
impact on the demand for the second-
hand fleet going forward. If values of
aircraft are driven down, this could
raise questions around financing these
older aircraft, even if there is a willing
customer, as the risk of financing such
aircraft increases.
Some question marks remain
around financing of second-hand
fleets as their values and rentals
soften
Aviation finance could provide an
attractive opportunity to deploy
large amounts of capital efficiently in
‘hard assets’.
This sector is particularly attractive at a
time when investor confidence in stocks
and other financial assets is lower. An
interesting barometer of demand for
investing in aircraft financing is that
investor demand for investing in the
Japanese Operating Lease (JOL) market
is at a near time high.
New investors are already entering
this space, but the general consensus
among the experts interviewed by
PwC is that more needs to be done to
ensure better understanding of the
sector by investor groups.
In the current economic
environment of low interest rates
and economic uncertainty, the
aviation sector could offer an
attractive alternative to new
investors
6 | Aviation finance | PwC
PwC | Aviation finance | 7
The opportunity
to invest
01
Industry view: ‘We expect Japanese banks
to be active in this market’
Garry Burke, Global Head Structured Finance,
Standard Chartered Bank
The ongoing shift from the
traditional aviation banks in Europe
to newer players from the East and
North America will continue over the
next few years
Aviation financing offers potential investors
absolute returns backed by hard assets...
The next few years will be crucial for
aviation financing as new aircraft
deliveries peak at a time when many of
the traditional commercial banks
remain under pressure.
New investors are already entering this
space as aviation finance is an asset class
which can offer attractive returns which
are secured against an underlying asset.
Why invest in aviation
financing?
•	 Deploys large amounts of capital
efficiently.
•	 Relatively predictable returns
although residual values,
especially for older aircraft, can
be volatile.
•	 Aircraft – the underlying asset – is
truly global in its recognition and
usage.
•	 Investment typically secured by a
‘hard asset’, supported by
International regulations such as
the Cape Town Treaty.
•	 Highly mobile asset – helps with
reclaiming and redeploying the
asset in case of a default.
The general consensus amongst the
experts we interviewed was that the
industry needs to do more to ensure that
potential investors understand it better.
All key players such as airlines, banks,
leasing companies will have to work
harder to attract new investors to the
sector and create innovative products
which can broaden the investor pool.
8 | Aviation finance | PwC
Industry view: ‘I would expect that the rising cost
of capital from traditional lenders will open
opportunities for new sources of capital in the
aviation finance market’
Ricky Thirion, Vice President and Group Treasurer,
Etihad Airways
...and is already attracting the attention of various
investors
Aviation financing sector exhibits the
sort of characteristics that would
attract institutional investors such
as sovereign wealth funds, insurance
companies, pension funds and
certain private equity funds
Sovereign Wealth
Funds (SWF)
We have already seen a number of
SWF-backed funds such as China,
Singapore and UAE investing in this
asset class.
This is unsurprising given their access
to US dollar funding, longer term
investment horizon and appetite for
deploying larger amounts of capital
efficiently.
With the potential for developing
new structures, we expect further
involvement of SWFs going forward.
Financial Investors/
Private Equity
At first glance, aviation financing may
not be an obvious investment for PE.
But, we have already seen a number of
financial investors backing leasing
businesses with recent ventures e.g.
Cinven, CVC, GIC and Oak Hill’s
investment in Avolon, Carlyle’s investment
in RPK, Cerberus Capital’s investment in
AerCap, Oaktree’s investment in Jackson
Square Aviation (now exited) and Terra
Firma’s investment in AWAS.
We expect to see further deal activity in
this space.
Far Eastern Banks
Banks from the Far East have been at the
forefront of some of the larger deals, for
example, the acquisition of RBS Aviation
by Japanese Bank Sumitomo Mitsui, the
sale of DVB’s 60% share in TES to
Development Bank of Japan and
Mitsubishi Corporation and the recent
acquisition of Jackson Square Aviation
also by a Mitsubishi Corporation entity.
Some Chinese banks may also be keen to
expand into the sector e.g. press reports
suggest CDB was the under bidder for
RBS Aviation.
We believe the recent trend of a shift in
aviation assets from European banks to
the banks in Asia is likely to continue.
PwC | Aviation finance | 9
10 | Aviation finance | PwC
Record aircraft
backlogs
02
Aircraft orders are at record levels which could open
up attractive investment opportunities for investors
Aviation is a cyclical business and
has witnessed a number of peaks and
troughs during its history. Inspite of
this, current orders for new aircraft
are at unprecedented levels
Similar to other capital heavy industries,
commercial aerospace is cyclical with the
industry historically suffering from over
ordering of new aircraft in the ‘good
times’ which are sometimes then
delivered in the ‘bad times’. The rise in
demand for travel and the associated
orders for new aircraft have resulted in
current order backlogs at unprecedented
levels (At July 2012, outstanding orders
backlog was c.8500, which represents
seven-eight years of production at
current production rates).
This record backlog has built up steadily
over the last five-seven years reflecting
significant order volumes pre the
2008/09 recession followed by a
relatively quieter period in 2009-10.
There has been a return to high order
volumes in 2011 which has continued
into 2012.
Airbus and Boeing orders, deliveries and backlogs
Source: Boeing and Airbus websites, PwC analysis
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
11,000
12,000
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
Year
Orders Deliveries Backlog
Orders&deliveries
Backlogs
PwC | Aviation finance | 11
12 | Aviation finance | PwC
The desire to reduce operating costs particularly
fuel, which now represents a third of operating
costs for most airlines…
Although there is an element of
speculative orders, on balance we
believe there are genuine operational
and business reasons for the current
mega orders from emerging markets
A number of factors have contributed to
this ‘abnormal’ peak:
•	 A continued focus by airlines on
driving down operational costs
in an era where the cost of a barrel of
fuel in excess of $100 is the ‘new
normal’ and with fuel now
representing a third of total operating
costs. This has driven the demand for
new technology aircraft with
innovative improved composites and
more fuel efficient engines.
-- Manufacturers’ estimates suggest
significant savings, for example,
according to Boeing, a B787 saves
c.16%-19% operating costs (on a per
available seat kilometre basis) over
a B767.
-- This has been a key driver of
aircraft orders in 2011 and 2012
following the launch of the A320
NEO and 737 MAX short haul
aircraft.
-- New technology aircraft with lower
carbon emissions also help airlines
with their broader environmental
objectives and better place them for
a future when global carbon pricing
is fully implemented.
787 vs 767 Cash operating costs per Available Seat Kilometer (ASK)
Source: Boeing
5.8
5.9
6.1
4.9
4.9
5.2
- 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Short range
Medium
range
Long range
cent / ASK
B787-8 B767-300
Assumes fuel price of $125 per barrel (2009 USD)
18%
19%
16%
PwC | Aviation finance | 13
…and geographical expansion have been the key
drivers of new orders. But there is also an element
of speculative orders
•	 The strong economic growth in
emerging markets over the last
decade has increased the appetite for
air travel in these populous regions
(China, India, Brazil) particularly
within the emerging middle classes.
•	 The replication of successful
Low Cost Carrier (LCC)
models, which has driven
exponential demand for air travel
and aircraft in emerging regions and
made flying affordable for their
increasingly prosperous populations.
•	 Re-fleeting of US Airlines as
they look to replace over 2,000 aging
MD 80s and 737s.
•	 Competition amongst airlines to
offer the best and newest technology
(e.g. B787 and A380 flying
experience) to their discerning
customers. This is especially true of
airlines operating in highly contested
routes and markets (e.g. Japanese
and the Middle Eastern markets).
•	 Airlines in developing
countries are increasingly taking
delivery of brand new aircraft
(e.g. RwandAir which operates a
new 737NG and has B787s on order
directly with the manufacturer).
Historically, such airlines took
deliveries of second-hand aircraft
from more established players
which created a natural waterfall
for aircraft.
Although there are genuine business
and operational factors that have fuelled
the current demand, orders have also
benefited from what some in the
industry describe as longer term, more
‘speculative’ mega orders for the
short haul type, predominantly from
lower cost operators. Over the last
couple of years just six airlines have
accounted for over 1,500 short haul
aircraft orders.
In-service Aircraft by region		 On order Aircraft by region
34%
34%
34%
28%
4%
North & South America
Europe
27%
19%
52%
2%
Asia, Australasia and Middle East
Africa
Source: Flightglobal
Short haul aircraft outstanding orders – Top 6
Source: Boeing, Airbus and American Airlines websites
100
201
150
59
100
37
34
130
72 65
130
200
100
150
-
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
American
Airlines
Air Asia Norwegian Lion Air Indigo Southwest
Airlines
Noofaircraftonorder
B737 MAX B737NG A320 Current A320 Neo
14 | Aviation finance | PwC
Historically, airlines have continued to be able to
find finance and take deliveries of new aircraft even
when profitability has been challenging
Despite a tough decade, airlines have
taken steady delivery of new aircraft
over the last ten years and have
always managed to find funding for
their orders
The last decade has been a tough one for
the airline industry in general. Although
there have been some winners, globally
airlines have incurred significant losses.
A number of unusual external events are
partly to blame e.g. 9/11, SARS and
swine flu outbreaks and volcanic
eruptions. However, the underlying
story of the last ten years has been
excess capacity, intense competition and
rise of the low cost carriers which have
all contributed to lower returns. The
financial performance has also been
adversely impacted by the economic
downturn, increases in regulatory costs
and fuel price volatility.
Asaresultoftheabove,manyairlineshave
lostequityandnowhaveweakenedbalance
sheets.Now,airlinesarguablyhavethe
lowestmarginsintheirvaluechain.
It is against this backdrop that the
record backlog of orders for new aircraft
should be considered, in conjunction
with the need to finance them.
While airlines can either defer or cancel
orders, both being options used in the
industry historically, there is an
operational requirement to re-fleet the
global aircraft pool with more efficient
aircraft. Historically, an airline’s financial
performance has not had a significant
impact on their ability to secure and
finance new aircraft deliveries.
Global commercial airline profitability, orders and deliveries 1999-2012F
Source: Boeing, Airbus and American Airlines websites
(1,200)
(700)
(200)
300
800
1,300
(30)
(25)
(20)
(15)
(10)
(5)
-
5
10
15
20
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012F
Numberofdeliveries(AirbusandBoeing)
Profit/loss(£bn)
Net profit ($bn) Deliveries
OEM’s are ramping up production to meet demand
OEMs will need to closely monitor
and manage their supply chain to
ensure orders are delivered on time
and, more importantly, their new
aircraft programmes remain on
track
On the back of unprecedented orders, the
Original Engagement Manufacturers
(OEM) have built up record order
backlogs. At present, these backlogs stand
at over 7/8 years of production. To address
these backlogs OEMs have ramped up
production volumes for existing
technology aircraft and are likely to
increase it again over the medium term.
The ramp up of production could, as it
has in the past, put pressure on the
supply chain, leaving programmes
vulnerable to supply chain delays and
failures. To address this risk, OEMs are
consolidating and encouraging
consolidation of their suppliers. At
present, Boeing and Airbus are reliant
on over 1,500 direct suppliers spread
across various geographies.
In the short term, OEM’s have reported,
due to supply chain problems, the ramp
up in production rates is likely to be
lower than that announced previously.
Aircraft production rates over time (Airbus and Boeing)
Source: Boeing and Airbus websites and PwC analysis
32
24
6
1
5
33
31
7
2
6
32 31
9
2
7
3
42 42
10
3
8
5
-
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
A320 B737 A330 A380 B777 B787
Monthlyproductionrates
2008 2010 2012 (to date) Planned
New aircraft variants have a
history of delays in production
(Boeing’s first 787 was three years late
in delivery) and teething troubles as
the first fleet emerges for example the
recent issues with cracks on the wings
of the A380.
These programme delays and issues
create challenges for aircraft owners
and operators who are seeking to
replace ageing airframes as soon as
possible. In a number of cases, they
either cancel orders all together or
default to existing, rather than new
technology aircraft to plug their delivery
schedule gaps.
Length of delay from initial estimated service date to actual
scheduled service date
Source: Boeing and Airbus websites and PwC analysis
????
????
1.3 + ??
1.0
2.3
3.5
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5
737 MAX
A320 Neo
A350
747-800
A380
B787
Years delay
16 | Aviation finance | PwC
With growing demand for new aircraft the
‘waterfall market’ for second hand aircraft is
dwindling which is impacting aircraft residual
values, age and lease rentals
The challenge for existing and new
investors is to understand the impact
the record orders and production
rates could have on residual value
trends
Although a healthy order book provides
opportunities to new and existing
investors and bodes well for the
manufacturers, the challenge for both is
that this record level of demand for
future aircraft types (which apart for the
A380 and B787, have not yet come to the
market in any scale) will have implications
for the residual pricing of current
technology aircraft, both those currently
in service and those yet to be delivered.
In addition, mid life aircraft, historically,
had a natural flow to new and smaller
airlines around the world after the first few
years with top tier carriers. This is
changing, with ECA financing, new and
smaller airlines are now often taking
deliveries of brand new aircraft. The
impact of this is reduced demand for mid
life aircraft and there is a view amongst
some industry experts that there is
oversupply of certain narrow body aircraft.
Part out market
•	 Aircraft have historically been retired after 25 years in service after which
they are taken to ‘jet cemeteries’ to be parted out for resale of working
parts and recycling of other parts.
•	 There has been a recent trend of parting out younger aircraft. This is again
largely due to the ‘supply and demand’ dynamics as availability of middle
aged aircraft has increased.
•	 Although this may worry investors, it could also provide opportunities for
investors to pick up mid-life to older aircraft, run down the lease rental and
then part out the aircraft to realise reasonable returns.
As a result of the above, we are seeing a
trend towards a shortening in the
average life of an aircraft from the
traditionally accepted 25 years, with
residual value of 15%.
We have already seen some of the larger
aircraft owners taking write downs on
asset values of aircraft (ILFC’s $1.5bn
write-down in Q4 2011 for example).
This raises a number of questions:
•	 How will residual values trend over
the next few years?
•	 Will further increase in production
volumes of existing technology
aircraft, particularly for short haul
aircraft, exacerbate these trends?
Some experts we interviewed had strong
views about aircraft values and potential
net book value problems for existing
owners, while others were more
optimistic. It remains to be seen how
this will unfold in the future.
Another trend is for younger aircraft to
be parted out and sold for spares as
this provides greater value than as an
aircraft in operation.
PwC | Aviation finance | 17
18 | Aviation finance | PwC
The narrow body fleet is more vulnerable to the
unfavourable trends in residual values…
Aircraft orders placed in 2007–10 are
starting to deliver in 2012, which are
potentially in excess of current
demand and are causing softer lease
rates for mid life aircraft, in particular
for narrow body models
Aircraft values and
Aircraft age
There is consensus amongst the experts
we interviewed that the economic life of
aircraft is shortening due to the current
‘supply and demand’ dynamics and that
the standard 25 years is no longer valid.
This has implications for residual values
and returns. A key question for potential
investors, with the launch of ‘new
technology’ aircraft later this decade, is
whether this trend is likely to continue
or even accelerate?
Given uncertainty regarding aircraft age
and residual values and the potential for a
new generation of aircraft (press reports
suggest NASA and other key players in the
sector are working on the next generation
of passenger jets) coming into service in
20–25 years time, it is now even more
important to be at the front end of
deliveries in order to generate good
returns. This, though, comes with
potentially higher risk of initial
‘teething’ problems experienced with
most new models.
Wide Body Asset Values
Source: Morgan Stanley Research, Aircraft Value Analysis Company
(20%)
(15%)
(10%)
(5%)
0%
5%
10%
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011
YoY%changeinMarketValue
Wide Body= 767-200/300, 747-400, 777-200, A330-
300 A340-300
Narrow Body Asset Values
(25%)
(20%)
(15%)
(10%)
(5%)
0%
5%
10%
15%
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011
YoY%changeinMarketValue
Narrow body = MD83, 737-300, A320-200, 737-700
PwC | Aviation finance | 19
Narrow Body Lease Rates
…and has experienced softer lease rentals
Lease rates
After a bounce back in 2010, lease rates
have been under pressure in 2011/12.
The problem is more pronounced for
narrow body where market consensus is
that due to the current over supply, lease
rates are below market expectations.
Part of the issue can be traced to large
orders from lessees placed between
2007–2010, which are starting to be
delivered in 2012 and could potentially
be in excess of requirements.
Industry view: ‘The reality is there are too many
narrow bodies in the market hence lease rates are soft’
Managing Director, major leasing business
(25%)
(20%)
(15%)
(10%)
(5%)
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011
YoY%changeinLeaseRates
Wide Body= 767-200/300, 747-400, 777-200,
A330-300 A340-300
Narrow body = MD83, 737-300, A320-200,
737-700
This is exacerbated by Boeing and
Airbus ramping up production of
737NGs and A320s. The issue of
softening lease rates is more pronounced
for mid-life aircraft as newer aircraft are
preferred by airlines.
This trend is impacting standard aircraft
age and residual value assumptions and
is resulting in younger aircraft being
parted out.
Wide Body Lease Rates
Source: Morgan Stanley Research, Aircraft Value Analysis Company
(25%)
(20%)
(15%)
(10%)
(5%)
0%
5%
10%
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011
YoY%changeinLeaseRates
20 | Aviation finance | PwC
PwC | Aviation finance | 21
Financing trends
03
22 | Aviation finance | PwC
Industry view: ‘Aircraft financing is
extremely difficult… banks are being very
selective in their lending’
Ulf Gedamke, Air Berlin
Boeing and Airbus July 2012 order book is worth $1.2 trillion at list prices
Source: July 2012 order book per Boeing and Airbus websites, PwC analysis
3,943
2,183
825
1,569
350
200
221
407
-
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
Short haul
existing
technology
Short Haul new
technology*
Long Haul
existing
technology
Long Haul new
technology**
Value(@listprice)$bn
NumberofAircraft
# of aircraft List price value $bn
Airlines are having to work harder and longer to
arrange funding for new aircraft orders
The key challenge for airlines, who
have record orders in place, will be to
find financing at competitive rates in
an exceptionally tough economic
environment
With increasing pressure on cash flows
due to high fuel prices and relatively
thin capital structures, many airlines are
bracing themselves for the challenge of
finding finance for aircraft on order.
An estimate at list price of the value of
the July 2012 backlog is in the region of
$1.2 trillion. Although significant
discounts to lists are standard within the
industry, the real cost is still likely to be
in the order of$700bn.
Potential mitigations for
airlines
•	 Sale-and-leaseback alternatives
for a given period may enable
bridging of any current financing
shortfalls. It can free up capital
and also takes away the
commitment of future PDP
payments.
•	 Airlines with substantial local
currency income should consider
financing in local currencies
which reduces refinancing costs
for local or regional banks.
With the overall supply of financing
reduced, airlines need to continually
review their fleet management policy
and actively manage their future
financing. They will need to be mindful
that they have to compete in the global
market place for funds and their
competitors will not be the usual airlines
that they compete with on a route basis.
Our expert interviews reveal that
airlines are already having to work a lot
harder and start much earlier to arrange
funding. To find funding of this
magnitude over the next few years
against the backdrop of liquidity drying
up will remain a key challenge. We
expect new structures to continue to
come to the market as airlines innovate
to mitigate a financial ‘crunch’.
*737 MAX/A320 NEO
** 787/747-800/A380/A350
PwC | Aviation finance | 23
Availability of long term liquidity is reduced, risk is
being repriced, and further regulatory changes are
being implemented
Generally, in tough economic times,
liquidity becomes more scarce and
hence, financing an aircraft gets
tougher. Despite those challenges,
historically the industry has found new
solutions and aircraft have always been
financed.
Post the 2008–09 global financial crisis,
when bank financing was more scarce,
the Export Credit Agency (ECA)
guaranteed financing stepped up and
was seen as a saviour. With ECA
guarantees, banks were seen to be more
willing to provide debt and, with
reduced risk, were able to price more
competitively.
The ongoing global economic
uncertainty, the European Sovereign
debt crisis, and the challenges faced by
European banks in accessing US dollar
funding and improving their capital
positions has raised funding pressure.
European banks have played a key role
in the past but many are now looking to
reduce their exposure to this sector.
Public debt and capital markets have
become more challenging as investors
look to safer havens such as government
bonds. But, we are seeing new more
sophisticated capital market products
backed by ECA/US-ExIm which are
attracting more interest, for example the
recent Emirates, ACG and Ryan Air
issued bonds backed by ExIm.
Basel III
The Basel accords are the global regulatory framework which aims for
more resilient banks and banking systems through harmonised capital
adequacy requirements. The new Basel III changes will be enforced
gradually from 2013.
In brief, under Basel III the ‘adjusted leverage ratio’ sets a limit independent of
the quality of the assets and the new ‘net stable funding ratio’ requires funding
to match lending maturities. Both will impact future loan conditions for long
term borrowing including for aviation finance.
For airlines, the effect of Basel III could translate into higher loan pricing as
banks pass on higher liquidity costs. It is hard to quantify its specific impact
precisely as lending rates are an interplay of bank risk costs, liquidity costs,
access to currencies.
As a result, airlines may have to cope with increased loan pricing and a more
challenging funding environment.
Industry view: ‘A number of banks are trying to sell
substantial portfolios of aircraft financing – up to $6bn at a
time to improve their capital positions’
Frank Wulf, MD Aviation Finance, DVB Bank
Leasing companies over the years have
steadily built up a significant market
presence and now have >30% market
share. They have not only financed new
deliveries but have increased their
market share through purchase and
lease-back transactions. Leasing
companies are currently preferred by
investors, lenders and airlines due to
their better risk and reward offering.
Cash and equity financing by airlines
has not been as popular in the recent
past. The primary reason for this is the
necessity for airlines to have reasonable
cash buffers to cover normal operations
and be able to deal with unusual
situations (e.g. volcanic eruptions,
earthquakes, SARS) which put
significant strain on the business.
Japanese Operating Leases are a steady
and attractive source of financing, for
example Lufthansa and Air France
A380s were financed through JOLs in
Q2 2012.
24 | Aviation finance | PwC
ECAs, historically a backstop, have now become a
default source of finance. This is set to change…
Historically, the Export Credit Agencies
of the key airframe and engine
manufacturing countries, such as the
US, UK, Germany, France, Canada and
Brazil, have recognised the importance
of aircraft manufacturing to the national
economies so supported the export of
their aircraft by offering guarantees to
cover the losses of commercial banks
that were lending to relatively risky
airlines.
While traditionally, this type of
guarantee-based funding has been used
as a backup source, over the last four
years ECA backed funding has become
the funding source of choice and has
been used by airlines with stronger
credits (for example Emirates, Etihad,
Ryanair, and various Chinese carriers).
The key point about this source of
funding is that commercial banks still
provide the required funding (although
this is changing), ECAs provide
guarantees to make good any specific
losses incurred by the funding bank in
case of default. As a consequence, the
credit risk for banks is not the airline
anymore but the sovereign risk of the
ECA given the collateral.
The cost of financing through ECA-
backed guarantees has historically been
lower than commercially available bank
debt. But, with the implementation of
the New Aircraft Sector Understanding,
the cost will increase from 2013 as
premiums are more aligned with
market ratios.
The key agencies involved with aircraft financing are:
Export-Import Bank of the
United States (ExIm)
The bank assists in financing the export
of US goods and services to
international markets, filling the
financing gaps that the private sector is
unwilling to accept. ExIm is different
from the other ECAs as it can provide
funding if required.
Export Credits Guarantee
Department (UK)
UK Export Finance is a government
department that provides government
assistance to UK exporters and
investors, principally in the form of
insurance policies and guarantees on
bank loans.
Federal Export Credit
Guarantees (Germany)
Euler Hermes helps to promote German
exports by offering guarantees that
protect German companies in the event
of non-payment by foreign debtors. The
German export credit scheme is
managed on behalf of the Federal
Government by Euler Hermes and
PwC Germany.
Compagnie Française
d’Assurance pour le
Commerce Extérieur
(Coface)
The Coface Group is a trade risk and credit
insurance expert, offering credit
insurance to companies, regardless of
their size, sector or country.
Export Development Canada
Canada’s Export Credit Agency is
self-financed and works to support and
develop Canada’s export trade by
helping Canadian companies respond to
international business opportunities.
Brazil Development Bank
The BNDES is a Brazilian federal
company aiming to provide long-term
financing to Brazilian companies of all
sizes. Its key goals are the
strengthening of capital structures of
private companies as well as the
development of capital markets.
Source: Agency websites
PwC | Aviation finance | 25
…as the New Aircraft Sector Understanding comes
into force from 2013, which is likely to increase the
cost of ECA backed borrowing
New Aircraft Sector
Understanding (ASU) which governs
the rules of ECA financing, will come
into force in 2013, and is likely to result
in a considerable increase in premiums.
The New ASU is actually already in
effect but will have more impact from
Jan 2013 when the current two year
transition period ends.
Industry view: ‘With a market-reflective
pricing this (new ASU) will shift the focus of
ECA financing to its genuine raison d’être –
availability, not affordability, of funding’
Stephan Cors, Head of Aviation Risk,
PwC Germany
Challenges to ECA financing
The role of ECAs has been under the spotlight in recent years because the
‘home airlines’ are barred from utilising this type of financing (there are some
limited exceptions e.g. at present AF KLM, Lufthansa and BA each have the
option to finance two A380s supported by ECAs).
The issue is that airlines from around the world, some of which are highly
profitable, have benefited from using ECAs as a reliable and relatively cheaper
source of borrowing, which some argue gives them an unfair advantage.
The situation has been particularly severe in the US where the Air Transport
Association of America representing a number of key ‘home operators’,
recently sued the Ex-Im bank for providing a financing solution to Air India for
its 787 deliveries which they argue will provide an uneven playing field to a
direct competitor.
ECA financing cost increases
(12 year repayment term, asset-backed)
OLD ASU New ASU
Entity rating Per annums
spread (bps)
Up front % Per annums
spread (bps)
Up front %
AAA – BBB- n/a 4.0% 142 8.01%
BB+ – B- n/a 4.75-6.25% 189-271 10.73-15.58%
CCC – C n/a 7.5% 303-310 17.50-17.92%
New ASU for aircraft sales contracts agreed post 2010 and/or deliveries post 2012
Source: OECD and PwC analysis
Export Credit Agencies (ECAs) have
played a crucial role over the last four
years by stepping in when liquidity
dried up in 2008 and are very likely to
continue playing an important role.
However, due to the new ASU the cost of
such financing is set to increase, adding
to the challenge for the airlines
26 | Aviation finance | PwC
As risk is repriced, the competition to obtain
financing for aircraft may intensify and the cost of
financing may go up. We believe that the industry
as a whole will be able to attract funding but the
new sources of finance will need to be tapped into
As traditional sources of funding tighten…
As aircraft deliveries peak over the next
few years, at a time when long term US
dollar financing becomes scarcer for the
major European banks, there are
significant challenges for the industry as
a whole to find finance for the new
deliveries. All the major players in the
industry including manufacturers,
financiers, airlines and lessors will need
to work harder to attract new investors
to the industry.
We are already seeing some creative
financing solutions being introduced for
example, the issued Nord LB Aircraft
Mortgage covered bond and Doric Nimrod
Alpha issuance of Enhanced Equipment
Trust Certificate (EETC) to finance A380s
for Emirates. Developing an EETC type
product for European airlines would help
enlarge the pool of funds and bridge some
of the funding gap.
More of this will need to happen and, to
attract new investors, may require
development of new products which are
acceptable to them. We explored earlier
in this publication what types of investor
may be attracted to the sector. In terms
of financing we expect to see the
following trends:
Non-European banks with access
to US dollars will strengthen their
market share.
Several European banks have had recent
rating downgrades due to their exposure
to the ongoing European debt crisis and
they have started withdrawing from
balance sheet heavy investments such as
aircraft and shipping finance.
We expect Non-European banks with
better access to US dollars to step in and
already we have seen a flurry of activity
involving the banks from the Far East. For
example, Sumitomo Mitsui Bank’s
acquisition of RBS Aviation, Mitsubishi
Corporation and Development Bank of
Japan’s investment in TES and the well
documented interest of ICBC in the sector.
Banks from emerging markets other
than China are showing interest but are
not competitive yet due to higher
refinancing costs and regulatory or fiscal
restrictions to offer long term financing
with fixed interest rates.
2011 vs 2012 sources of aircraft financing
Source: Boeing and Airbus, PwC analysis
30%
27%
28%
25%
25%
23%
14%
18%
3%
7%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2011 2012 (Est)
%offinancing
Bank debt ECA financing
Cash Sale & lease back
Capital markets Manufacturer
PwC | Aviation finance | 27
…the industry will need to tap into new and
alternative sources of financing
ECA financing will play a pivotal
role in global aircraft transactions
despite the change in the ASU which
will increase the cost of borrowing.
Since ECAs are still ultimately accessing
the same funding pool as the airlines
themselves, they may be requested to
adjust their instruments to new funding
sources. Some existing ECA guarantee
products are already quite sophisticated
particularly in the US e.g. recent ExIm
backed bond issues such as the recent
Emirates and ACG bond issues.
European counterpart agencies are
likely to follow, with the ECA backed
AerCap bond at the end of 2010 being
the only official ECA support for a debt
capital markets deal so far.
Increased use of capital markets
particularly for the non-US airlines.
These funding sources will become
more important but will only really be
accessible to those operators with the
better credit ratings.
Historically, the US airlines have been
able to use this source of financing as
the US Bankruptcy Code provided a
clear legal framework, for investors
and financiers, for repossession in case
of default.
The Cape Town Treaty aims to provide
similar protection to investors, but, it
remains untested to date. Despite the
fact that, the need for increased
transparency has made capital markets
less attractive for airlines, we expect
airlines to adapt and prepare for more
activity in the capital markets.
Aircraft lessors will become even more
important as they attract new investors
particularly from the Far East.
We also expect the current trend of sale
and lease-back by airlines to continue as
airlines free up much needed liquidity
for operational needs in a tough
economic environment.
The expected increase in the cost of ECA
backed financing and with many banks
now offering much lower LTV ratios, we
are also likely to see an increase in the
demand for operating leases.
While lack of bank credit would also
affect lessors, they are typically in a
better position to access alternative
sources of funding. We have looked at
the role of lessors in more detail in a
later section.
Manufacturers’ financing may play a
bigger role in the future to fill the gap as
has been the case during previous
downturns. We expect manufacturer’s
share of funding to increase going forward
as demonstrated by the recent American
Airlines Boeing order which includes the
provision of $13 billion of committed
financing from the manufacturers
through lease transactions.
Other sources of financing: A380
operators have been successful in using
the attractiveness of the aircraft to
access private investors through KG
(Kommanditgesellschaft) funds.
KG funds are a specialist corporate form
of partnership used to finance large
aircraft. However, recent regulation is
likely to make these unattractive as the
additional compliance costs will make
these less profitable.
Given the attractiveness of the asset
other specialist funds may come into
play to tap into institutional demand.
One such example is the Doric Nimrod
Asset funds which have raised capital
on the London Stock Exchange to be
used solely to finance a number of A380s
for Emirates.
Industry view: ‘The capital markets outside the US need to be
harnessed to play a bigger role in aviation finance’
Ricky Thirion, Vice President and Group Treasurer, Etihad Airways
Scarce funding will also make financing
more expensive
Cost of financing and loan
to value (LTV)
The cost of long-term borrowing has
increased in recent months due to
regulatory changes and economic
uncertainties. Another trend
experienced by the industry is the
decrease in LTV ratios. While it was
possible to leverage assets up to 85%+
in the past, recent deals have been as
low as 65% on certain narrow body
assets which affects both funding
scarcity and concern over residual value.
Industry view: ‘New deals will have to get returns with
lower leverage as the cost of funding goes up from LIBOR
+1.5%-2.25% to LIBOR +3.2%-5%’
Donal Boylan, CEO Hong Kong Aviation Capital
There is consensus amongst the experts
we interviewed that, given the scarcity
of bank funds and regulatory changes,
the cost of financing is set to increase
further and LTV ratios may come under
further pressure.
This has obvious implications for the
industry as a whole. Airlines will need to
be prepared for increased costs for new
fleet acquisitions or even situations of
costs increasing for existing financings.
Airlines may seek to pass through part
or all of the increase which in the
current fragile market could impact
volumes.
PwC | Aviation finance | 28
PwC | Aviation finance | 29
Aircraft leasing
04
30 | Aviation finance | PwC
Industry view: ‘Banks are more interested
in financing leasing activities’
Ulf Gedamke, Air Berlin
Leasing companies are set to play a key
role in financing aircraft deliveries in
the future as they are better placed to
attract new investment. As a result,
leased aircraft will grow at a higher
rate than owned aircraft
Lessors are to play a key role in the future as they
are better placed to attract new investment
As the demand for financing deliveries
of new aircraft peaks at a time when
long term financing becomes less
attractive for the incumbent banks, we
expect new investors to step in.
Leasing is now a preferred choice for
most airlines these days, which is in
sharp contrast to their preference of
owning aircraft outright a couple of
decades ago. There are clear operational
benefits such as flexibility and access to
delivery slots and also significant cash
flow advantages.
As a result of the above shift in
behaviour, leasing’s market share has
increased from around 12% of the
global fleet in 1990 to around 32%
today. The penetration of leasing
companies is likely to increase further as
airlines look to fill the funding gap left
by banks and investors. Some market
forecasts suggest a share of around 40%
by 2020.
Already, there has been a flurry of
activity in this space with a number of
new leasing companies backed by a
variety of investors entering the sector
and building up portfolios relatively
quickly.
But, as with other businesses in the
market, we expect leasing companies to
have to work harder to find financing for
their aircraft. They will also be impacted
by any increase in the cost of financing,
although they may benefit from
investment grade ratings which allow
them to better access capital markets.
We also expect a continuation of the
trend of sale and lease back
arrangements by airlines to leasing
companies, as the airlines look to free
up liquidity.
Many leasing companies have strong
balance sheets that will provide them
with the capacity to execute these
transactions.
Global fleet forecast and leasing penetration
Source: Vision Gain 2011
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
-
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
%ofaircraftleased(penetration)
NoofAircraft(000s)
Owned aircraft Leased aircraft Leased aircraft %
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
Forecast
CAGR2011-2021F
Leased 5.6%
Owned 1.7%
Total 3.0%
PwC | Aviation finance | 31
With increased demand for leased aircraft, the case
for investment is strengthened
What makes leasing
attractive for airlines?
•	 Flexible fleet portfolio and
risk mitigation.
•	 Access to attractive delivery
slots, given many production slots
are sold out for a number of years,
airlines seeking fleet growth could
access lessor slots.
•	 Availability of capital as lessors
with their investment grade rating
and better risk profile can access
more and relatively cheaper capital.
•	 Can avoid pre-delivery
payments (PDPs) which decreases
liquidity for several years without
increasing revenue.
•	 Residual value risk rests with
the lessor.
•	 Utilisation of freed-up liquidity to
finance growth or for day-to-day
operations.
Challenges facing the leasing business?
As with other players in the sector, leasing businesses also face challenges to finance
aircraft with record backlogs and liquidity drying up, albeit the magnitude of challenge is
less compared to airlines.
Record orders and
financing
Over the last year (more pronounced in short haul aircraft)and there are signs in the
market that they may soften further in the near future especially for single aisle aircraft.
Leasing rates have
softened
Particularly for the mid-age aircraft are under pressure and are likely to come under
further pressure as new orders are delivered. This has an implication for the assumed
aircraft age, a key assumption which determines depreciation, lease factors and returns.
Aircraft values
Aircraft such B787s and A380s come into market and A320 NEOs and B737MAX are
launched later in the decade, lessors with older aircraft technology on their books may
find less demand for their aircraft.
As more new technology
In particular import restrictions being placed by a number of developing countries which
historically served as a natural second-hand market for mid-aged aircraft could also
make certain aircraft less attractive.
Changes in regulatory
environment
32 | Aviation finance | PwC
Behind the ‘Big Two’ aircraft lessors, the market is
supplemented by fast growing new entrants
The aircraft leasing market is dominated
by two very large US entities, GECAS
and ILFC. Beyond this, the Top 10 is
increasingly being challenged by fast
growing new entrants.
The ‘Big two’, GECAS and ILFC,
dominate the market in terms of both
fleet size and value. Both have fleets
larger than Delta Air Lines, the world’s
largest airline by number of aircraft.
They also dominate the order backlog,
with 190 and 228 aircrafts on order
respectively, as of July 2012. Along with
other lessors based in the US, they are
better placed than other territories with
their ability to raise USD financing, and
have made active use of capital markets
e.g. ILFC’s recent issuance of $750m
unsecured debt and closure of a senior
secured loan of $900m early last year.
Both lessors have raised capital by
selling aircraft portfolios in the past for
example ILFC’s sale of 53 aircraft to
Macquarie and AWAS’s purchase of a
GECAS portfolio.
Outside of the big 2, a number of newer
players (e.g. HKAC, Avolon, Jackson
Square etc.) have entered the market
with funding from a variety of sources
from sovereign wealth to capital
markets and private equity.
Selected Lessors by Fleet Value
Source: Flight Global
* Acquired by Mitsubishi Corporation in October 2012
GECAS
ILFC
AerCap
BBAM
CIT Aerospace
BOC Aviation
RBS Aviation Capital
AWAS
Aviation Capital GroupAircastle Advisor
(20%)
(10%)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
(500) 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500
Fleetvaluegrowth,2010-11
Total fleet size, 2011, no. aircraft
200%
400%
800%
Air Lease Corporation
Avolon Aerospace Leasing
Jackson Square Aviation*
Big two
New Entrants
Top 10
The new entrants have quickly built up
portfolios through acquisition of
existing companies, purchase and lease
back transactions and acquisition of
portfolios from competitors.
We expect to see more deal activity in
the medium term.
PwC | Aviation finance | 33
34 | Aviation finance | PwC
  Lessor Fleet $bn/
units
Key backers Recent activity*
1 GECAS 34.6 1,755 General Electric Sold aircraft portfolios to CDB, Avolon and AWAS in
the last two years
2 ILFC 27.8 1,031 AIG Recent reports suggest, (pending government
approvals) AIG is to sell 80% stake to a Chinese
consortium (valuing ILFC at c.$5bn)
3 AerCap 8.4 326 NYSE listed, backed by
Cerberus Capital
Press reports suggest AerCap is considering strategic
options.
Sold a $1bn aircraft portfolio to Guggenheim
in 2012
4 BBAM 7.8 327 BBAM Mgmt and FLY Leasing Onex acquired a 50% stake in BBAM in 2012
5 CIT Aerospace 7.5 263 CIT Group, United States Acquired aircraft loan portfolios from airlines and an
unnamed European bank in 2012
6 BOC Aviation 6.7 179 Bank of China Raising unsecured debt to build up portfolio through
sale and leaseback with airlines and selected orders
7 RBS Aviation
Capital
6.7 246 Sumitomo Corporation, Japan Recently acquired by Sumitomo Corporation and
merged with their existing leasing business
8 AWAS 5.2 224 Terra Firma, CPPIB and others Terra Firma reported to be considering IPO.
Purchased 12 aircraft from GECAS
9 Aviation Capital 4.8 245 Pacific Life Insurance, USA No comments
10 Aircastle
Advisor
3.7 140 NYSE listed, Fortress backed No comments
11 Macquarie Air
Finance
3.6 156 Macquarie Group, Australia Reported to have been interested in RBS aviation
Bought aircraft portfolio from AIG in 2010 and sold
aircraft engine portfolio to Engine Lease Corporation
12 Air Lease
Corporation
3.5 97 NYSE listed, backed by PE
houses and banks
Built up portfolio through sale and lease back and
acquisition of new and used aircraft. Have large orders
for new aircraft in place
13 Doric Asset
Finance
3.0 27  Focussing on A380s via LSE listed investment
companies
14 China
Development
Bank Leasing
2.9 70 China Dev. Bank, HNA Group,
Xi’an Aircraft Industry Group
Acquired 32 aircraft portfolio from GECAS in
December 2011.
Source: Flightglobal and press articles
* as reported in the press
There has been a flurry of deal activity involving
lessors...
PwC | Aviation finance | 35
...we expect this to continue and should provide
opportunities to existing and new investors
  Lessor Fleet $bn/
units
Key backers Recent activity*
15 Sumisho
Aircraft Asset
Management
2.9 89 Sumitomo Corporation, Japan Acquired RBS aviation in 2012. Acquires aircraft from
investors who may be looking to realise investment
16 MC Aviation 2.8 87 Mitsubishi Corporation, Japan Parent company acquired Jackson Square in
October 2012
17 ICBC Leasing 2.6 63 Industrial and Commercial
Bank of China
Built up portfolio through sale and lease back and
acquisition of new and used aircraft. Have large orders
for new aircraft in place
18 Pembroke Group 2.5 75 Standard Chartered Acquiring aircraft from airlines in purchase and
leaseback transactions
19 Boeing Capital 2.4 242 Boeing Company Boeing’s reported strategy is to reduce customer
financing exposure
20 FLY Leasing 2.2 109 – No comments
21 Jackson Square 2.2 46 Oaktree Capital Management Sold to Mitsubishi Corporation in October 2012
22 HK Aviation
Capital
2.2 68 HNA Grp, Bravia Capital HK HKAC acquired Allco’s aviation assets in 2011
23 Avolon
Aerospace
Leasing
2.1 52 Cinven, CVC, Oak Hill and
GIC (Singapore SWF)
Rumours of business going public, meanwhile raised
capital and debt to source aircraft deliveries. Bought
GECAS portfolio (c$350m)
24 Amentum
Capital
2.1 44 HSH Nordbank Group Press reports suggest HSH were looking to sell
Amentum Capital back in 2010/11
25 DAE Capital 2.1 47 Dubai Aerospace Enterprise Some of the large orders placed in 2007 were cancelled
in 2010/2011
26 ALAFCO 1.9 60 Kuwait Finance House and
Kuwait Airways
Provider of innovative Sharia-based commercial
aircraft leasing products. Have placed large aircraft
orders with OEMs over the last two/three years
27 Guggenheim
Aviation
Partners
1.8 51 Part of Guggenheim Capital,
USA
Acquired an AerCap subsidiary with aircraft portfolio
worth $1bn in November 2012.
28 ORIX Aviation 1.4 88 Tokyo based Orix Looking to increase assets and customer base.
Reports indicate talks on going with a number of B787
customers
29 SkyWorks 1.2 98 Portfolio mgmt. Company No comments
30 Lease Corp.
International
1.1 13 Libra Group First international lessor to commit to the Bombardier
C series
36 | Aviation finance | PwC
PwC | Aviation finance | 37
About PwC
M&A advisory services in the aviation sector
PwC is a leading M&A adviser to
the airlines industry. Through our
Transaction Services, Strategy,
Structuring, Valuation, Consulting,
Human Resource, Tax and Corporate
Finance practices, we offer a full suite
of M&A advisory services.
Our UK and global experience in this
sector has consistently demonstrated
our ability to provide an industry-
focused, high quality service to airlines
and complementary businesses for both
domestic and cross-border transactions.
Our global team of sector specialists are
dedicated to enhancing value for our
clients by providing key commercial and
technical advice throughout the deal cycle.
The main areas of our services include:
•	 due diligence: business, financial,
market and operational;
•	 debt advisory;
•	 deal structuring, drawing on
accounting, regulation and tax
requirements;
•	 business and asset valuations and
fairness opinions;
•	 post-merger integration: synergy
assessments, planning and project
management;
•	 human resource and pension scheme
advice; and
•	 lead advisory corporate finance.
For more information about any of the issues raised in this report, please contact
any one of those listed below or your usual PwC contact:
Shamshad Ali
Partner – PwC (UK)
Financial Services
shamshad.ali@uk.pwc.com
Ken Walsh
Partner – PwC (UK)
Airlines M&A
ken.walsh@uk.pwc.com
Ronan Doyle
Partner – PwC (Republic of Ireland)
Banking & Capital Markets
ronan.doyle@ie.pwc.com
Neil Hampson
Partner – PwC (UK)
Aerospace and Defence
neil.r.hampson@uk.pwc.com
Paul Nash
Partner – PwC (UK)
Taxation
paul.h.nash@uk.pwc.com
37 | Aviation finance | PwC
38 | Aviation finance | PwC
PwC | Aviation finance | 39
This publication has been prepared for general guidance on matters of interest only, and does not constitute professional advice. You should
not act upon the information contained in this publication without obtaining specific professional advice. No representation or warranty (express
or implied) is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained in this publication, and, to the extent permitted by law,
PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, its members, employees and agents do not accept or assume any liability, responsibility or duty of care for any
consequences of you or anyone else acting, or refraining to act, in reliance on the information contained in this publication or for any decision
based on it.
© 2013 PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP. All rights reserved. In this document, “PwC” refers to the UK member firm, and may sometimes refer to the
PwC network. Each member firm is a separate legal entity. Please see www.pwc.com/structure for further details.
121213-151951-KK-OS
About this report
The editorial team members for this report were Shamshad Ali, Neil Hampson,
Will Inglis, Anna Sargeant and Arsalan Ali. We would like to thank the
following for their contribution to the publication:
Cameron Green, Donal Boylan, Frank Wulf, Garry Burke, James Chin, Lovis
von Andrian, Mark O’Connell, Richard O’Halloran, Ricky Thirion, Roger de
Peyrecave, Rupak Ramachandran, Stephan Cors, Ulf Gedamke and all those
who generously made time to be interviewed but requested not to be quoted.
www.pwc.com

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Aviation Finance '' Fasten Your Seatbelt ''

  • 2. 2 | Aviation finance | PwC Foreword Shamshad Ali – Partner T: +44 (0)20 7804 9600 M: +44 (0)7714 7 08756 E: shamshad.ali@uk.pwc.com Aviation financing is a hot topic and likely to remain so over the coming years, as the demand for financing deliveries of new aircraft peaks at a time when long term financing becomes unattractive for some of the incumbent banks. On the one hand, record order books of aircraft manufacturers reflect a period of strong orders buoyed by both new aircraft types and strong demand in the emerging markets. On the other, there are a number of headwinds in the aircraft finance market which may make these orders more difficult to finance, and potentially, more expensive. The ongoing global economic uncertainty, the European Sovereign debt crisis, the recent downgrading of several European banks and increased difficulty of accessing US dollar funding has raised funding pressure. A number of predominantly European banks who have historically played a key role are retracting from the market. This is causing tensions in the funding market, which have been heightened by the ongoing bank deleveraging process, which in part reflects the impact of new regulations such as Basel III. Conversely, in tough economic times and a low interest rate environment attractive yields are harder to find. Investors are looking for hard assets with good returns.
  • 3. PwC | Aviation finance | 3 Neil Hampson – Partner T: +44 (0)20 7804 9405 M: +44 (0)78414 97220 E: neil.r.hampson@uk.pwc.com As a result we expect attractive opportunities to emerge in the aviation financing sector for investors looking to deploy large amounts of capital efficiently. Already we have seen new investment flowing into this sector as funds backed by the governments of China, Singapore and UAE have made sizeable investments in this space. Other institutional investors such as sovereign wealth funds, insurance companies, pension funds and certain private equity funds could also be interested in investing in aircraft assets. We expect acceleration in the ongoing shift of financing from the traditional aviation banks in the West to new players from the East. This report is based on a number of interviews with key personnel in this market including CEO/CFOs of leading leasing businesses, airlines, European banks and other financial institutions in Asia, ME and Europe to understand and analyse the latest trends in the market. We hope this research will better inform the investor community. Despite the challenges, aircraft financing is an opportunity for new entrants to earn attractive yields, provided the asset type and the timing is right!
  • 4. 4 | Aviation finance | PwC At a glance Current orders for new aircraft are at unprecedented levels, driven by the replacement of ageing fleets in North America, demand for fuel efficient aircraft and market growth in the emerging markets. Though airlines are currently facing a number of headwinds, orders are expected to be fulfilled. Historically, an airline’s financial performance has not had a significant impact on their ability to secure and finance new aircraft deliveries. Although airlines can either defer or cancel orders, there is an operational requirement to re-fleet the global aircraft pool with more efficient aircraft. The industry has seen record aircraft orders driven by the operational needs of airlines. Finding funds for these orders will be a challenge Aircraft deliveries over the next three- five years will need to be financed at a time when liquidity is scarcer and risk is being repriced. The key challenge for airlines, who have record orders in place, will be to find financing at a competitive rate in an exceptionally tough economic environment. Based on our interviews, we believe that financing is likely to be found but potentially, at a higher price. This is already attracting new investors particularly from the Far East, with a number of banks from Japan and China snapping up aviation assets. We expect this trend to accelerate. But, more of this will need to happen and airlines and lessors will need to be more inventive and work harder to find additional sources of funding and potentially develop new products. There have been recent attempts for example the Doric II (UK-listed) Emirates financing vehicle and German bond backed by an aircraft mortgage (a new product first used by Nord LB in July 2012). Finance is likely to be available for the new aircraft as new investors from the East flock to the sector, replacing the traditional banks from the West but…
  • 5. PwC | Aviation finance | 5 Although it already costs more to arrange financing within the aviation industry compared to a few years ago, we expect the cost of financing could increase further as regulatory changes take shape in particular Basel III and the implementation of the new Aircraft Sector Understanding (ASU) from 2013. What’s more, as the challenges that the banking industry faces, and in particular the European banks who traditionally have been dominant in this space, continue to play out, we expect to see some banks retreating from this market which will intensify the competition to obtain aircraft financing and the cost of financing will likely further increase. Time will tell what if any impact the higher cost of financing will have on the cost of travel. …financing will be expensive as regulatory changes and economic conditions make capital scarcer. It remains to be seen who will pay for the incremental costs. As airlines take delivery of new aircraft, owners must be found for second-hand aircraft. In the past, airlines from developing economies have taken these, which has created a natural flow of ownership. This is changing as new and smaller airlines place orders for new aircraft direct with manufacturers, often taking advantage of Export Credit Agency (ECA) finance. This, together with concerns of oversupply of some aircraft types, particularly narrow body, could put aircraft values and lease rates under pressure. These factors could have a significant impact on the demand for the second- hand fleet going forward. If values of aircraft are driven down, this could raise questions around financing these older aircraft, even if there is a willing customer, as the risk of financing such aircraft increases. Some question marks remain around financing of second-hand fleets as their values and rentals soften Aviation finance could provide an attractive opportunity to deploy large amounts of capital efficiently in ‘hard assets’. This sector is particularly attractive at a time when investor confidence in stocks and other financial assets is lower. An interesting barometer of demand for investing in aircraft financing is that investor demand for investing in the Japanese Operating Lease (JOL) market is at a near time high. New investors are already entering this space, but the general consensus among the experts interviewed by PwC is that more needs to be done to ensure better understanding of the sector by investor groups. In the current economic environment of low interest rates and economic uncertainty, the aviation sector could offer an attractive alternative to new investors
  • 6. 6 | Aviation finance | PwC
  • 7. PwC | Aviation finance | 7 The opportunity to invest 01
  • 8. Industry view: ‘We expect Japanese banks to be active in this market’ Garry Burke, Global Head Structured Finance, Standard Chartered Bank The ongoing shift from the traditional aviation banks in Europe to newer players from the East and North America will continue over the next few years Aviation financing offers potential investors absolute returns backed by hard assets... The next few years will be crucial for aviation financing as new aircraft deliveries peak at a time when many of the traditional commercial banks remain under pressure. New investors are already entering this space as aviation finance is an asset class which can offer attractive returns which are secured against an underlying asset. Why invest in aviation financing? • Deploys large amounts of capital efficiently. • Relatively predictable returns although residual values, especially for older aircraft, can be volatile. • Aircraft – the underlying asset – is truly global in its recognition and usage. • Investment typically secured by a ‘hard asset’, supported by International regulations such as the Cape Town Treaty. • Highly mobile asset – helps with reclaiming and redeploying the asset in case of a default. The general consensus amongst the experts we interviewed was that the industry needs to do more to ensure that potential investors understand it better. All key players such as airlines, banks, leasing companies will have to work harder to attract new investors to the sector and create innovative products which can broaden the investor pool. 8 | Aviation finance | PwC
  • 9. Industry view: ‘I would expect that the rising cost of capital from traditional lenders will open opportunities for new sources of capital in the aviation finance market’ Ricky Thirion, Vice President and Group Treasurer, Etihad Airways ...and is already attracting the attention of various investors Aviation financing sector exhibits the sort of characteristics that would attract institutional investors such as sovereign wealth funds, insurance companies, pension funds and certain private equity funds Sovereign Wealth Funds (SWF) We have already seen a number of SWF-backed funds such as China, Singapore and UAE investing in this asset class. This is unsurprising given their access to US dollar funding, longer term investment horizon and appetite for deploying larger amounts of capital efficiently. With the potential for developing new structures, we expect further involvement of SWFs going forward. Financial Investors/ Private Equity At first glance, aviation financing may not be an obvious investment for PE. But, we have already seen a number of financial investors backing leasing businesses with recent ventures e.g. Cinven, CVC, GIC and Oak Hill’s investment in Avolon, Carlyle’s investment in RPK, Cerberus Capital’s investment in AerCap, Oaktree’s investment in Jackson Square Aviation (now exited) and Terra Firma’s investment in AWAS. We expect to see further deal activity in this space. Far Eastern Banks Banks from the Far East have been at the forefront of some of the larger deals, for example, the acquisition of RBS Aviation by Japanese Bank Sumitomo Mitsui, the sale of DVB’s 60% share in TES to Development Bank of Japan and Mitsubishi Corporation and the recent acquisition of Jackson Square Aviation also by a Mitsubishi Corporation entity. Some Chinese banks may also be keen to expand into the sector e.g. press reports suggest CDB was the under bidder for RBS Aviation. We believe the recent trend of a shift in aviation assets from European banks to the banks in Asia is likely to continue. PwC | Aviation finance | 9
  • 10. 10 | Aviation finance | PwC Record aircraft backlogs 02
  • 11. Aircraft orders are at record levels which could open up attractive investment opportunities for investors Aviation is a cyclical business and has witnessed a number of peaks and troughs during its history. Inspite of this, current orders for new aircraft are at unprecedented levels Similar to other capital heavy industries, commercial aerospace is cyclical with the industry historically suffering from over ordering of new aircraft in the ‘good times’ which are sometimes then delivered in the ‘bad times’. The rise in demand for travel and the associated orders for new aircraft have resulted in current order backlogs at unprecedented levels (At July 2012, outstanding orders backlog was c.8500, which represents seven-eight years of production at current production rates). This record backlog has built up steadily over the last five-seven years reflecting significant order volumes pre the 2008/09 recession followed by a relatively quieter period in 2009-10. There has been a return to high order volumes in 2011 which has continued into 2012. Airbus and Boeing orders, deliveries and backlogs Source: Boeing and Airbus websites, PwC analysis - 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000 11,000 12,000 - 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Year Orders Deliveries Backlog Orders&deliveries Backlogs PwC | Aviation finance | 11
  • 12. 12 | Aviation finance | PwC The desire to reduce operating costs particularly fuel, which now represents a third of operating costs for most airlines… Although there is an element of speculative orders, on balance we believe there are genuine operational and business reasons for the current mega orders from emerging markets A number of factors have contributed to this ‘abnormal’ peak: • A continued focus by airlines on driving down operational costs in an era where the cost of a barrel of fuel in excess of $100 is the ‘new normal’ and with fuel now representing a third of total operating costs. This has driven the demand for new technology aircraft with innovative improved composites and more fuel efficient engines. -- Manufacturers’ estimates suggest significant savings, for example, according to Boeing, a B787 saves c.16%-19% operating costs (on a per available seat kilometre basis) over a B767. -- This has been a key driver of aircraft orders in 2011 and 2012 following the launch of the A320 NEO and 737 MAX short haul aircraft. -- New technology aircraft with lower carbon emissions also help airlines with their broader environmental objectives and better place them for a future when global carbon pricing is fully implemented. 787 vs 767 Cash operating costs per Available Seat Kilometer (ASK) Source: Boeing 5.8 5.9 6.1 4.9 4.9 5.2 - 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Short range Medium range Long range cent / ASK B787-8 B767-300 Assumes fuel price of $125 per barrel (2009 USD) 18% 19% 16%
  • 13. PwC | Aviation finance | 13 …and geographical expansion have been the key drivers of new orders. But there is also an element of speculative orders • The strong economic growth in emerging markets over the last decade has increased the appetite for air travel in these populous regions (China, India, Brazil) particularly within the emerging middle classes. • The replication of successful Low Cost Carrier (LCC) models, which has driven exponential demand for air travel and aircraft in emerging regions and made flying affordable for their increasingly prosperous populations. • Re-fleeting of US Airlines as they look to replace over 2,000 aging MD 80s and 737s. • Competition amongst airlines to offer the best and newest technology (e.g. B787 and A380 flying experience) to their discerning customers. This is especially true of airlines operating in highly contested routes and markets (e.g. Japanese and the Middle Eastern markets). • Airlines in developing countries are increasingly taking delivery of brand new aircraft (e.g. RwandAir which operates a new 737NG and has B787s on order directly with the manufacturer). Historically, such airlines took deliveries of second-hand aircraft from more established players which created a natural waterfall for aircraft. Although there are genuine business and operational factors that have fuelled the current demand, orders have also benefited from what some in the industry describe as longer term, more ‘speculative’ mega orders for the short haul type, predominantly from lower cost operators. Over the last couple of years just six airlines have accounted for over 1,500 short haul aircraft orders. In-service Aircraft by region On order Aircraft by region 34% 34% 34% 28% 4% North & South America Europe 27% 19% 52% 2% Asia, Australasia and Middle East Africa Source: Flightglobal Short haul aircraft outstanding orders – Top 6 Source: Boeing, Airbus and American Airlines websites 100 201 150 59 100 37 34 130 72 65 130 200 100 150 - 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 American Airlines Air Asia Norwegian Lion Air Indigo Southwest Airlines Noofaircraftonorder B737 MAX B737NG A320 Current A320 Neo
  • 14. 14 | Aviation finance | PwC Historically, airlines have continued to be able to find finance and take deliveries of new aircraft even when profitability has been challenging Despite a tough decade, airlines have taken steady delivery of new aircraft over the last ten years and have always managed to find funding for their orders The last decade has been a tough one for the airline industry in general. Although there have been some winners, globally airlines have incurred significant losses. A number of unusual external events are partly to blame e.g. 9/11, SARS and swine flu outbreaks and volcanic eruptions. However, the underlying story of the last ten years has been excess capacity, intense competition and rise of the low cost carriers which have all contributed to lower returns. The financial performance has also been adversely impacted by the economic downturn, increases in regulatory costs and fuel price volatility. Asaresultoftheabove,manyairlineshave lostequityandnowhaveweakenedbalance sheets.Now,airlinesarguablyhavethe lowestmarginsintheirvaluechain. It is against this backdrop that the record backlog of orders for new aircraft should be considered, in conjunction with the need to finance them. While airlines can either defer or cancel orders, both being options used in the industry historically, there is an operational requirement to re-fleet the global aircraft pool with more efficient aircraft. Historically, an airline’s financial performance has not had a significant impact on their ability to secure and finance new aircraft deliveries. Global commercial airline profitability, orders and deliveries 1999-2012F Source: Boeing, Airbus and American Airlines websites (1,200) (700) (200) 300 800 1,300 (30) (25) (20) (15) (10) (5) - 5 10 15 20 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012F Numberofdeliveries(AirbusandBoeing) Profit/loss(£bn) Net profit ($bn) Deliveries
  • 15. OEM’s are ramping up production to meet demand OEMs will need to closely monitor and manage their supply chain to ensure orders are delivered on time and, more importantly, their new aircraft programmes remain on track On the back of unprecedented orders, the Original Engagement Manufacturers (OEM) have built up record order backlogs. At present, these backlogs stand at over 7/8 years of production. To address these backlogs OEMs have ramped up production volumes for existing technology aircraft and are likely to increase it again over the medium term. The ramp up of production could, as it has in the past, put pressure on the supply chain, leaving programmes vulnerable to supply chain delays and failures. To address this risk, OEMs are consolidating and encouraging consolidation of their suppliers. At present, Boeing and Airbus are reliant on over 1,500 direct suppliers spread across various geographies. In the short term, OEM’s have reported, due to supply chain problems, the ramp up in production rates is likely to be lower than that announced previously. Aircraft production rates over time (Airbus and Boeing) Source: Boeing and Airbus websites and PwC analysis 32 24 6 1 5 33 31 7 2 6 32 31 9 2 7 3 42 42 10 3 8 5 - 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 A320 B737 A330 A380 B777 B787 Monthlyproductionrates 2008 2010 2012 (to date) Planned New aircraft variants have a history of delays in production (Boeing’s first 787 was three years late in delivery) and teething troubles as the first fleet emerges for example the recent issues with cracks on the wings of the A380. These programme delays and issues create challenges for aircraft owners and operators who are seeking to replace ageing airframes as soon as possible. In a number of cases, they either cancel orders all together or default to existing, rather than new technology aircraft to plug their delivery schedule gaps. Length of delay from initial estimated service date to actual scheduled service date Source: Boeing and Airbus websites and PwC analysis ???? ???? 1.3 + ?? 1.0 2.3 3.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 737 MAX A320 Neo A350 747-800 A380 B787 Years delay
  • 16. 16 | Aviation finance | PwC With growing demand for new aircraft the ‘waterfall market’ for second hand aircraft is dwindling which is impacting aircraft residual values, age and lease rentals The challenge for existing and new investors is to understand the impact the record orders and production rates could have on residual value trends Although a healthy order book provides opportunities to new and existing investors and bodes well for the manufacturers, the challenge for both is that this record level of demand for future aircraft types (which apart for the A380 and B787, have not yet come to the market in any scale) will have implications for the residual pricing of current technology aircraft, both those currently in service and those yet to be delivered. In addition, mid life aircraft, historically, had a natural flow to new and smaller airlines around the world after the first few years with top tier carriers. This is changing, with ECA financing, new and smaller airlines are now often taking deliveries of brand new aircraft. The impact of this is reduced demand for mid life aircraft and there is a view amongst some industry experts that there is oversupply of certain narrow body aircraft. Part out market • Aircraft have historically been retired after 25 years in service after which they are taken to ‘jet cemeteries’ to be parted out for resale of working parts and recycling of other parts. • There has been a recent trend of parting out younger aircraft. This is again largely due to the ‘supply and demand’ dynamics as availability of middle aged aircraft has increased. • Although this may worry investors, it could also provide opportunities for investors to pick up mid-life to older aircraft, run down the lease rental and then part out the aircraft to realise reasonable returns. As a result of the above, we are seeing a trend towards a shortening in the average life of an aircraft from the traditionally accepted 25 years, with residual value of 15%. We have already seen some of the larger aircraft owners taking write downs on asset values of aircraft (ILFC’s $1.5bn write-down in Q4 2011 for example). This raises a number of questions: • How will residual values trend over the next few years? • Will further increase in production volumes of existing technology aircraft, particularly for short haul aircraft, exacerbate these trends? Some experts we interviewed had strong views about aircraft values and potential net book value problems for existing owners, while others were more optimistic. It remains to be seen how this will unfold in the future. Another trend is for younger aircraft to be parted out and sold for spares as this provides greater value than as an aircraft in operation.
  • 17. PwC | Aviation finance | 17
  • 18. 18 | Aviation finance | PwC The narrow body fleet is more vulnerable to the unfavourable trends in residual values… Aircraft orders placed in 2007–10 are starting to deliver in 2012, which are potentially in excess of current demand and are causing softer lease rates for mid life aircraft, in particular for narrow body models Aircraft values and Aircraft age There is consensus amongst the experts we interviewed that the economic life of aircraft is shortening due to the current ‘supply and demand’ dynamics and that the standard 25 years is no longer valid. This has implications for residual values and returns. A key question for potential investors, with the launch of ‘new technology’ aircraft later this decade, is whether this trend is likely to continue or even accelerate? Given uncertainty regarding aircraft age and residual values and the potential for a new generation of aircraft (press reports suggest NASA and other key players in the sector are working on the next generation of passenger jets) coming into service in 20–25 years time, it is now even more important to be at the front end of deliveries in order to generate good returns. This, though, comes with potentially higher risk of initial ‘teething’ problems experienced with most new models. Wide Body Asset Values Source: Morgan Stanley Research, Aircraft Value Analysis Company (20%) (15%) (10%) (5%) 0% 5% 10% 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 YoY%changeinMarketValue Wide Body= 767-200/300, 747-400, 777-200, A330- 300 A340-300 Narrow Body Asset Values (25%) (20%) (15%) (10%) (5%) 0% 5% 10% 15% 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 YoY%changeinMarketValue Narrow body = MD83, 737-300, A320-200, 737-700
  • 19. PwC | Aviation finance | 19 Narrow Body Lease Rates …and has experienced softer lease rentals Lease rates After a bounce back in 2010, lease rates have been under pressure in 2011/12. The problem is more pronounced for narrow body where market consensus is that due to the current over supply, lease rates are below market expectations. Part of the issue can be traced to large orders from lessees placed between 2007–2010, which are starting to be delivered in 2012 and could potentially be in excess of requirements. Industry view: ‘The reality is there are too many narrow bodies in the market hence lease rates are soft’ Managing Director, major leasing business (25%) (20%) (15%) (10%) (5%) 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 YoY%changeinLeaseRates Wide Body= 767-200/300, 747-400, 777-200, A330-300 A340-300 Narrow body = MD83, 737-300, A320-200, 737-700 This is exacerbated by Boeing and Airbus ramping up production of 737NGs and A320s. The issue of softening lease rates is more pronounced for mid-life aircraft as newer aircraft are preferred by airlines. This trend is impacting standard aircraft age and residual value assumptions and is resulting in younger aircraft being parted out. Wide Body Lease Rates Source: Morgan Stanley Research, Aircraft Value Analysis Company (25%) (20%) (15%) (10%) (5%) 0% 5% 10% 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 YoY%changeinLeaseRates
  • 20. 20 | Aviation finance | PwC
  • 21. PwC | Aviation finance | 21 Financing trends 03
  • 22. 22 | Aviation finance | PwC Industry view: ‘Aircraft financing is extremely difficult… banks are being very selective in their lending’ Ulf Gedamke, Air Berlin Boeing and Airbus July 2012 order book is worth $1.2 trillion at list prices Source: July 2012 order book per Boeing and Airbus websites, PwC analysis 3,943 2,183 825 1,569 350 200 221 407 - 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 - 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 Short haul existing technology Short Haul new technology* Long Haul existing technology Long Haul new technology** Value(@listprice)$bn NumberofAircraft # of aircraft List price value $bn Airlines are having to work harder and longer to arrange funding for new aircraft orders The key challenge for airlines, who have record orders in place, will be to find financing at competitive rates in an exceptionally tough economic environment With increasing pressure on cash flows due to high fuel prices and relatively thin capital structures, many airlines are bracing themselves for the challenge of finding finance for aircraft on order. An estimate at list price of the value of the July 2012 backlog is in the region of $1.2 trillion. Although significant discounts to lists are standard within the industry, the real cost is still likely to be in the order of$700bn. Potential mitigations for airlines • Sale-and-leaseback alternatives for a given period may enable bridging of any current financing shortfalls. It can free up capital and also takes away the commitment of future PDP payments. • Airlines with substantial local currency income should consider financing in local currencies which reduces refinancing costs for local or regional banks. With the overall supply of financing reduced, airlines need to continually review their fleet management policy and actively manage their future financing. They will need to be mindful that they have to compete in the global market place for funds and their competitors will not be the usual airlines that they compete with on a route basis. Our expert interviews reveal that airlines are already having to work a lot harder and start much earlier to arrange funding. To find funding of this magnitude over the next few years against the backdrop of liquidity drying up will remain a key challenge. We expect new structures to continue to come to the market as airlines innovate to mitigate a financial ‘crunch’. *737 MAX/A320 NEO ** 787/747-800/A380/A350
  • 23. PwC | Aviation finance | 23 Availability of long term liquidity is reduced, risk is being repriced, and further regulatory changes are being implemented Generally, in tough economic times, liquidity becomes more scarce and hence, financing an aircraft gets tougher. Despite those challenges, historically the industry has found new solutions and aircraft have always been financed. Post the 2008–09 global financial crisis, when bank financing was more scarce, the Export Credit Agency (ECA) guaranteed financing stepped up and was seen as a saviour. With ECA guarantees, banks were seen to be more willing to provide debt and, with reduced risk, were able to price more competitively. The ongoing global economic uncertainty, the European Sovereign debt crisis, and the challenges faced by European banks in accessing US dollar funding and improving their capital positions has raised funding pressure. European banks have played a key role in the past but many are now looking to reduce their exposure to this sector. Public debt and capital markets have become more challenging as investors look to safer havens such as government bonds. But, we are seeing new more sophisticated capital market products backed by ECA/US-ExIm which are attracting more interest, for example the recent Emirates, ACG and Ryan Air issued bonds backed by ExIm. Basel III The Basel accords are the global regulatory framework which aims for more resilient banks and banking systems through harmonised capital adequacy requirements. The new Basel III changes will be enforced gradually from 2013. In brief, under Basel III the ‘adjusted leverage ratio’ sets a limit independent of the quality of the assets and the new ‘net stable funding ratio’ requires funding to match lending maturities. Both will impact future loan conditions for long term borrowing including for aviation finance. For airlines, the effect of Basel III could translate into higher loan pricing as banks pass on higher liquidity costs. It is hard to quantify its specific impact precisely as lending rates are an interplay of bank risk costs, liquidity costs, access to currencies. As a result, airlines may have to cope with increased loan pricing and a more challenging funding environment. Industry view: ‘A number of banks are trying to sell substantial portfolios of aircraft financing – up to $6bn at a time to improve their capital positions’ Frank Wulf, MD Aviation Finance, DVB Bank Leasing companies over the years have steadily built up a significant market presence and now have >30% market share. They have not only financed new deliveries but have increased their market share through purchase and lease-back transactions. Leasing companies are currently preferred by investors, lenders and airlines due to their better risk and reward offering. Cash and equity financing by airlines has not been as popular in the recent past. The primary reason for this is the necessity for airlines to have reasonable cash buffers to cover normal operations and be able to deal with unusual situations (e.g. volcanic eruptions, earthquakes, SARS) which put significant strain on the business. Japanese Operating Leases are a steady and attractive source of financing, for example Lufthansa and Air France A380s were financed through JOLs in Q2 2012.
  • 24. 24 | Aviation finance | PwC ECAs, historically a backstop, have now become a default source of finance. This is set to change… Historically, the Export Credit Agencies of the key airframe and engine manufacturing countries, such as the US, UK, Germany, France, Canada and Brazil, have recognised the importance of aircraft manufacturing to the national economies so supported the export of their aircraft by offering guarantees to cover the losses of commercial banks that were lending to relatively risky airlines. While traditionally, this type of guarantee-based funding has been used as a backup source, over the last four years ECA backed funding has become the funding source of choice and has been used by airlines with stronger credits (for example Emirates, Etihad, Ryanair, and various Chinese carriers). The key point about this source of funding is that commercial banks still provide the required funding (although this is changing), ECAs provide guarantees to make good any specific losses incurred by the funding bank in case of default. As a consequence, the credit risk for banks is not the airline anymore but the sovereign risk of the ECA given the collateral. The cost of financing through ECA- backed guarantees has historically been lower than commercially available bank debt. But, with the implementation of the New Aircraft Sector Understanding, the cost will increase from 2013 as premiums are more aligned with market ratios. The key agencies involved with aircraft financing are: Export-Import Bank of the United States (ExIm) The bank assists in financing the export of US goods and services to international markets, filling the financing gaps that the private sector is unwilling to accept. ExIm is different from the other ECAs as it can provide funding if required. Export Credits Guarantee Department (UK) UK Export Finance is a government department that provides government assistance to UK exporters and investors, principally in the form of insurance policies and guarantees on bank loans. Federal Export Credit Guarantees (Germany) Euler Hermes helps to promote German exports by offering guarantees that protect German companies in the event of non-payment by foreign debtors. The German export credit scheme is managed on behalf of the Federal Government by Euler Hermes and PwC Germany. Compagnie Française d’Assurance pour le Commerce Extérieur (Coface) The Coface Group is a trade risk and credit insurance expert, offering credit insurance to companies, regardless of their size, sector or country. Export Development Canada Canada’s Export Credit Agency is self-financed and works to support and develop Canada’s export trade by helping Canadian companies respond to international business opportunities. Brazil Development Bank The BNDES is a Brazilian federal company aiming to provide long-term financing to Brazilian companies of all sizes. Its key goals are the strengthening of capital structures of private companies as well as the development of capital markets. Source: Agency websites
  • 25. PwC | Aviation finance | 25 …as the New Aircraft Sector Understanding comes into force from 2013, which is likely to increase the cost of ECA backed borrowing New Aircraft Sector Understanding (ASU) which governs the rules of ECA financing, will come into force in 2013, and is likely to result in a considerable increase in premiums. The New ASU is actually already in effect but will have more impact from Jan 2013 when the current two year transition period ends. Industry view: ‘With a market-reflective pricing this (new ASU) will shift the focus of ECA financing to its genuine raison d’être – availability, not affordability, of funding’ Stephan Cors, Head of Aviation Risk, PwC Germany Challenges to ECA financing The role of ECAs has been under the spotlight in recent years because the ‘home airlines’ are barred from utilising this type of financing (there are some limited exceptions e.g. at present AF KLM, Lufthansa and BA each have the option to finance two A380s supported by ECAs). The issue is that airlines from around the world, some of which are highly profitable, have benefited from using ECAs as a reliable and relatively cheaper source of borrowing, which some argue gives them an unfair advantage. The situation has been particularly severe in the US where the Air Transport Association of America representing a number of key ‘home operators’, recently sued the Ex-Im bank for providing a financing solution to Air India for its 787 deliveries which they argue will provide an uneven playing field to a direct competitor. ECA financing cost increases (12 year repayment term, asset-backed) OLD ASU New ASU Entity rating Per annums spread (bps) Up front % Per annums spread (bps) Up front % AAA – BBB- n/a 4.0% 142 8.01% BB+ – B- n/a 4.75-6.25% 189-271 10.73-15.58% CCC – C n/a 7.5% 303-310 17.50-17.92% New ASU for aircraft sales contracts agreed post 2010 and/or deliveries post 2012 Source: OECD and PwC analysis Export Credit Agencies (ECAs) have played a crucial role over the last four years by stepping in when liquidity dried up in 2008 and are very likely to continue playing an important role. However, due to the new ASU the cost of such financing is set to increase, adding to the challenge for the airlines
  • 26. 26 | Aviation finance | PwC As risk is repriced, the competition to obtain financing for aircraft may intensify and the cost of financing may go up. We believe that the industry as a whole will be able to attract funding but the new sources of finance will need to be tapped into As traditional sources of funding tighten… As aircraft deliveries peak over the next few years, at a time when long term US dollar financing becomes scarcer for the major European banks, there are significant challenges for the industry as a whole to find finance for the new deliveries. All the major players in the industry including manufacturers, financiers, airlines and lessors will need to work harder to attract new investors to the industry. We are already seeing some creative financing solutions being introduced for example, the issued Nord LB Aircraft Mortgage covered bond and Doric Nimrod Alpha issuance of Enhanced Equipment Trust Certificate (EETC) to finance A380s for Emirates. Developing an EETC type product for European airlines would help enlarge the pool of funds and bridge some of the funding gap. More of this will need to happen and, to attract new investors, may require development of new products which are acceptable to them. We explored earlier in this publication what types of investor may be attracted to the sector. In terms of financing we expect to see the following trends: Non-European banks with access to US dollars will strengthen their market share. Several European banks have had recent rating downgrades due to their exposure to the ongoing European debt crisis and they have started withdrawing from balance sheet heavy investments such as aircraft and shipping finance. We expect Non-European banks with better access to US dollars to step in and already we have seen a flurry of activity involving the banks from the Far East. For example, Sumitomo Mitsui Bank’s acquisition of RBS Aviation, Mitsubishi Corporation and Development Bank of Japan’s investment in TES and the well documented interest of ICBC in the sector. Banks from emerging markets other than China are showing interest but are not competitive yet due to higher refinancing costs and regulatory or fiscal restrictions to offer long term financing with fixed interest rates. 2011 vs 2012 sources of aircraft financing Source: Boeing and Airbus, PwC analysis 30% 27% 28% 25% 25% 23% 14% 18% 3% 7% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2011 2012 (Est) %offinancing Bank debt ECA financing Cash Sale & lease back Capital markets Manufacturer
  • 27. PwC | Aviation finance | 27 …the industry will need to tap into new and alternative sources of financing ECA financing will play a pivotal role in global aircraft transactions despite the change in the ASU which will increase the cost of borrowing. Since ECAs are still ultimately accessing the same funding pool as the airlines themselves, they may be requested to adjust their instruments to new funding sources. Some existing ECA guarantee products are already quite sophisticated particularly in the US e.g. recent ExIm backed bond issues such as the recent Emirates and ACG bond issues. European counterpart agencies are likely to follow, with the ECA backed AerCap bond at the end of 2010 being the only official ECA support for a debt capital markets deal so far. Increased use of capital markets particularly for the non-US airlines. These funding sources will become more important but will only really be accessible to those operators with the better credit ratings. Historically, the US airlines have been able to use this source of financing as the US Bankruptcy Code provided a clear legal framework, for investors and financiers, for repossession in case of default. The Cape Town Treaty aims to provide similar protection to investors, but, it remains untested to date. Despite the fact that, the need for increased transparency has made capital markets less attractive for airlines, we expect airlines to adapt and prepare for more activity in the capital markets. Aircraft lessors will become even more important as they attract new investors particularly from the Far East. We also expect the current trend of sale and lease-back by airlines to continue as airlines free up much needed liquidity for operational needs in a tough economic environment. The expected increase in the cost of ECA backed financing and with many banks now offering much lower LTV ratios, we are also likely to see an increase in the demand for operating leases. While lack of bank credit would also affect lessors, they are typically in a better position to access alternative sources of funding. We have looked at the role of lessors in more detail in a later section. Manufacturers’ financing may play a bigger role in the future to fill the gap as has been the case during previous downturns. We expect manufacturer’s share of funding to increase going forward as demonstrated by the recent American Airlines Boeing order which includes the provision of $13 billion of committed financing from the manufacturers through lease transactions. Other sources of financing: A380 operators have been successful in using the attractiveness of the aircraft to access private investors through KG (Kommanditgesellschaft) funds. KG funds are a specialist corporate form of partnership used to finance large aircraft. However, recent regulation is likely to make these unattractive as the additional compliance costs will make these less profitable. Given the attractiveness of the asset other specialist funds may come into play to tap into institutional demand. One such example is the Doric Nimrod Asset funds which have raised capital on the London Stock Exchange to be used solely to finance a number of A380s for Emirates. Industry view: ‘The capital markets outside the US need to be harnessed to play a bigger role in aviation finance’ Ricky Thirion, Vice President and Group Treasurer, Etihad Airways
  • 28. Scarce funding will also make financing more expensive Cost of financing and loan to value (LTV) The cost of long-term borrowing has increased in recent months due to regulatory changes and economic uncertainties. Another trend experienced by the industry is the decrease in LTV ratios. While it was possible to leverage assets up to 85%+ in the past, recent deals have been as low as 65% on certain narrow body assets which affects both funding scarcity and concern over residual value. Industry view: ‘New deals will have to get returns with lower leverage as the cost of funding goes up from LIBOR +1.5%-2.25% to LIBOR +3.2%-5%’ Donal Boylan, CEO Hong Kong Aviation Capital There is consensus amongst the experts we interviewed that, given the scarcity of bank funds and regulatory changes, the cost of financing is set to increase further and LTV ratios may come under further pressure. This has obvious implications for the industry as a whole. Airlines will need to be prepared for increased costs for new fleet acquisitions or even situations of costs increasing for existing financings. Airlines may seek to pass through part or all of the increase which in the current fragile market could impact volumes. PwC | Aviation finance | 28
  • 29. PwC | Aviation finance | 29 Aircraft leasing 04
  • 30. 30 | Aviation finance | PwC Industry view: ‘Banks are more interested in financing leasing activities’ Ulf Gedamke, Air Berlin Leasing companies are set to play a key role in financing aircraft deliveries in the future as they are better placed to attract new investment. As a result, leased aircraft will grow at a higher rate than owned aircraft Lessors are to play a key role in the future as they are better placed to attract new investment As the demand for financing deliveries of new aircraft peaks at a time when long term financing becomes less attractive for the incumbent banks, we expect new investors to step in. Leasing is now a preferred choice for most airlines these days, which is in sharp contrast to their preference of owning aircraft outright a couple of decades ago. There are clear operational benefits such as flexibility and access to delivery slots and also significant cash flow advantages. As a result of the above shift in behaviour, leasing’s market share has increased from around 12% of the global fleet in 1990 to around 32% today. The penetration of leasing companies is likely to increase further as airlines look to fill the funding gap left by banks and investors. Some market forecasts suggest a share of around 40% by 2020. Already, there has been a flurry of activity in this space with a number of new leasing companies backed by a variety of investors entering the sector and building up portfolios relatively quickly. But, as with other businesses in the market, we expect leasing companies to have to work harder to find financing for their aircraft. They will also be impacted by any increase in the cost of financing, although they may benefit from investment grade ratings which allow them to better access capital markets. We also expect a continuation of the trend of sale and lease back arrangements by airlines to leasing companies, as the airlines look to free up liquidity. Many leasing companies have strong balance sheets that will provide them with the capacity to execute these transactions. Global fleet forecast and leasing penetration Source: Vision Gain 2011 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% - 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 %ofaircraftleased(penetration) NoofAircraft(000s) Owned aircraft Leased aircraft Leased aircraft % 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Forecast CAGR2011-2021F Leased 5.6% Owned 1.7% Total 3.0%
  • 31. PwC | Aviation finance | 31 With increased demand for leased aircraft, the case for investment is strengthened What makes leasing attractive for airlines? • Flexible fleet portfolio and risk mitigation. • Access to attractive delivery slots, given many production slots are sold out for a number of years, airlines seeking fleet growth could access lessor slots. • Availability of capital as lessors with their investment grade rating and better risk profile can access more and relatively cheaper capital. • Can avoid pre-delivery payments (PDPs) which decreases liquidity for several years without increasing revenue. • Residual value risk rests with the lessor. • Utilisation of freed-up liquidity to finance growth or for day-to-day operations. Challenges facing the leasing business? As with other players in the sector, leasing businesses also face challenges to finance aircraft with record backlogs and liquidity drying up, albeit the magnitude of challenge is less compared to airlines. Record orders and financing Over the last year (more pronounced in short haul aircraft)and there are signs in the market that they may soften further in the near future especially for single aisle aircraft. Leasing rates have softened Particularly for the mid-age aircraft are under pressure and are likely to come under further pressure as new orders are delivered. This has an implication for the assumed aircraft age, a key assumption which determines depreciation, lease factors and returns. Aircraft values Aircraft such B787s and A380s come into market and A320 NEOs and B737MAX are launched later in the decade, lessors with older aircraft technology on their books may find less demand for their aircraft. As more new technology In particular import restrictions being placed by a number of developing countries which historically served as a natural second-hand market for mid-aged aircraft could also make certain aircraft less attractive. Changes in regulatory environment
  • 32. 32 | Aviation finance | PwC Behind the ‘Big Two’ aircraft lessors, the market is supplemented by fast growing new entrants The aircraft leasing market is dominated by two very large US entities, GECAS and ILFC. Beyond this, the Top 10 is increasingly being challenged by fast growing new entrants. The ‘Big two’, GECAS and ILFC, dominate the market in terms of both fleet size and value. Both have fleets larger than Delta Air Lines, the world’s largest airline by number of aircraft. They also dominate the order backlog, with 190 and 228 aircrafts on order respectively, as of July 2012. Along with other lessors based in the US, they are better placed than other territories with their ability to raise USD financing, and have made active use of capital markets e.g. ILFC’s recent issuance of $750m unsecured debt and closure of a senior secured loan of $900m early last year. Both lessors have raised capital by selling aircraft portfolios in the past for example ILFC’s sale of 53 aircraft to Macquarie and AWAS’s purchase of a GECAS portfolio. Outside of the big 2, a number of newer players (e.g. HKAC, Avolon, Jackson Square etc.) have entered the market with funding from a variety of sources from sovereign wealth to capital markets and private equity. Selected Lessors by Fleet Value Source: Flight Global * Acquired by Mitsubishi Corporation in October 2012 GECAS ILFC AerCap BBAM CIT Aerospace BOC Aviation RBS Aviation Capital AWAS Aviation Capital GroupAircastle Advisor (20%) (10%) 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% (500) 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 Fleetvaluegrowth,2010-11 Total fleet size, 2011, no. aircraft 200% 400% 800% Air Lease Corporation Avolon Aerospace Leasing Jackson Square Aviation* Big two New Entrants Top 10 The new entrants have quickly built up portfolios through acquisition of existing companies, purchase and lease back transactions and acquisition of portfolios from competitors. We expect to see more deal activity in the medium term.
  • 33. PwC | Aviation finance | 33
  • 34. 34 | Aviation finance | PwC   Lessor Fleet $bn/ units Key backers Recent activity* 1 GECAS 34.6 1,755 General Electric Sold aircraft portfolios to CDB, Avolon and AWAS in the last two years 2 ILFC 27.8 1,031 AIG Recent reports suggest, (pending government approvals) AIG is to sell 80% stake to a Chinese consortium (valuing ILFC at c.$5bn) 3 AerCap 8.4 326 NYSE listed, backed by Cerberus Capital Press reports suggest AerCap is considering strategic options. Sold a $1bn aircraft portfolio to Guggenheim in 2012 4 BBAM 7.8 327 BBAM Mgmt and FLY Leasing Onex acquired a 50% stake in BBAM in 2012 5 CIT Aerospace 7.5 263 CIT Group, United States Acquired aircraft loan portfolios from airlines and an unnamed European bank in 2012 6 BOC Aviation 6.7 179 Bank of China Raising unsecured debt to build up portfolio through sale and leaseback with airlines and selected orders 7 RBS Aviation Capital 6.7 246 Sumitomo Corporation, Japan Recently acquired by Sumitomo Corporation and merged with their existing leasing business 8 AWAS 5.2 224 Terra Firma, CPPIB and others Terra Firma reported to be considering IPO. Purchased 12 aircraft from GECAS 9 Aviation Capital 4.8 245 Pacific Life Insurance, USA No comments 10 Aircastle Advisor 3.7 140 NYSE listed, Fortress backed No comments 11 Macquarie Air Finance 3.6 156 Macquarie Group, Australia Reported to have been interested in RBS aviation Bought aircraft portfolio from AIG in 2010 and sold aircraft engine portfolio to Engine Lease Corporation 12 Air Lease Corporation 3.5 97 NYSE listed, backed by PE houses and banks Built up portfolio through sale and lease back and acquisition of new and used aircraft. Have large orders for new aircraft in place 13 Doric Asset Finance 3.0 27  Focussing on A380s via LSE listed investment companies 14 China Development Bank Leasing 2.9 70 China Dev. Bank, HNA Group, Xi’an Aircraft Industry Group Acquired 32 aircraft portfolio from GECAS in December 2011. Source: Flightglobal and press articles * as reported in the press There has been a flurry of deal activity involving lessors...
  • 35. PwC | Aviation finance | 35 ...we expect this to continue and should provide opportunities to existing and new investors   Lessor Fleet $bn/ units Key backers Recent activity* 15 Sumisho Aircraft Asset Management 2.9 89 Sumitomo Corporation, Japan Acquired RBS aviation in 2012. Acquires aircraft from investors who may be looking to realise investment 16 MC Aviation 2.8 87 Mitsubishi Corporation, Japan Parent company acquired Jackson Square in October 2012 17 ICBC Leasing 2.6 63 Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Built up portfolio through sale and lease back and acquisition of new and used aircraft. Have large orders for new aircraft in place 18 Pembroke Group 2.5 75 Standard Chartered Acquiring aircraft from airlines in purchase and leaseback transactions 19 Boeing Capital 2.4 242 Boeing Company Boeing’s reported strategy is to reduce customer financing exposure 20 FLY Leasing 2.2 109 – No comments 21 Jackson Square 2.2 46 Oaktree Capital Management Sold to Mitsubishi Corporation in October 2012 22 HK Aviation Capital 2.2 68 HNA Grp, Bravia Capital HK HKAC acquired Allco’s aviation assets in 2011 23 Avolon Aerospace Leasing 2.1 52 Cinven, CVC, Oak Hill and GIC (Singapore SWF) Rumours of business going public, meanwhile raised capital and debt to source aircraft deliveries. Bought GECAS portfolio (c$350m) 24 Amentum Capital 2.1 44 HSH Nordbank Group Press reports suggest HSH were looking to sell Amentum Capital back in 2010/11 25 DAE Capital 2.1 47 Dubai Aerospace Enterprise Some of the large orders placed in 2007 were cancelled in 2010/2011 26 ALAFCO 1.9 60 Kuwait Finance House and Kuwait Airways Provider of innovative Sharia-based commercial aircraft leasing products. Have placed large aircraft orders with OEMs over the last two/three years 27 Guggenheim Aviation Partners 1.8 51 Part of Guggenheim Capital, USA Acquired an AerCap subsidiary with aircraft portfolio worth $1bn in November 2012. 28 ORIX Aviation 1.4 88 Tokyo based Orix Looking to increase assets and customer base. Reports indicate talks on going with a number of B787 customers 29 SkyWorks 1.2 98 Portfolio mgmt. Company No comments 30 Lease Corp. International 1.1 13 Libra Group First international lessor to commit to the Bombardier C series
  • 36. 36 | Aviation finance | PwC
  • 37. PwC | Aviation finance | 37 About PwC M&A advisory services in the aviation sector PwC is a leading M&A adviser to the airlines industry. Through our Transaction Services, Strategy, Structuring, Valuation, Consulting, Human Resource, Tax and Corporate Finance practices, we offer a full suite of M&A advisory services. Our UK and global experience in this sector has consistently demonstrated our ability to provide an industry- focused, high quality service to airlines and complementary businesses for both domestic and cross-border transactions. Our global team of sector specialists are dedicated to enhancing value for our clients by providing key commercial and technical advice throughout the deal cycle. The main areas of our services include: • due diligence: business, financial, market and operational; • debt advisory; • deal structuring, drawing on accounting, regulation and tax requirements; • business and asset valuations and fairness opinions; • post-merger integration: synergy assessments, planning and project management; • human resource and pension scheme advice; and • lead advisory corporate finance. For more information about any of the issues raised in this report, please contact any one of those listed below or your usual PwC contact: Shamshad Ali Partner – PwC (UK) Financial Services shamshad.ali@uk.pwc.com Ken Walsh Partner – PwC (UK) Airlines M&A ken.walsh@uk.pwc.com Ronan Doyle Partner – PwC (Republic of Ireland) Banking & Capital Markets ronan.doyle@ie.pwc.com Neil Hampson Partner – PwC (UK) Aerospace and Defence neil.r.hampson@uk.pwc.com Paul Nash Partner – PwC (UK) Taxation paul.h.nash@uk.pwc.com 37 | Aviation finance | PwC
  • 38. 38 | Aviation finance | PwC
  • 39. PwC | Aviation finance | 39 This publication has been prepared for general guidance on matters of interest only, and does not constitute professional advice. You should not act upon the information contained in this publication without obtaining specific professional advice. No representation or warranty (express or implied) is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained in this publication, and, to the extent permitted by law, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, its members, employees and agents do not accept or assume any liability, responsibility or duty of care for any consequences of you or anyone else acting, or refraining to act, in reliance on the information contained in this publication or for any decision based on it. © 2013 PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP. All rights reserved. In this document, “PwC” refers to the UK member firm, and may sometimes refer to the PwC network. Each member firm is a separate legal entity. Please see www.pwc.com/structure for further details. 121213-151951-KK-OS About this report The editorial team members for this report were Shamshad Ali, Neil Hampson, Will Inglis, Anna Sargeant and Arsalan Ali. We would like to thank the following for their contribution to the publication: Cameron Green, Donal Boylan, Frank Wulf, Garry Burke, James Chin, Lovis von Andrian, Mark O’Connell, Richard O’Halloran, Ricky Thirion, Roger de Peyrecave, Rupak Ramachandran, Stephan Cors, Ulf Gedamke and all those who generously made time to be interviewed but requested not to be quoted.