Global situation, future prospected, and strategies that address a greater number of challenges.

1. Global Challenges and
High Impact Strategies
Finnish Institute for International Affairs
Jerome C. Glenn
The Millennium Project -- themp.org

2. ever-increasing ways to improve the human
condition
The World is in a Race
Between implementing
and the seemingly ever-increasing complexity and scale of global
problems.
Global Collective Intelligence can help…
Win the Race

3. How can sustainable development be achieved for
all while addressing global climate change?
1
How can everyone have sufficient clean water
without conflict?
2
How can population growth and resources be
brought into balance?
3
How can genuine democracy emerge from
authoritarian regimes?
4
How can policymaking be made more
sensitive to global long-term
perspectives?
5
How can the global convergence of
information and communications
technologies work for everyone?
6
How can ethical market economies be
encouraged to help reduce the gap between
rich and poor?
7
How can the threat of new and reemerging
diseases and immune microorganisms be
reduced?
8
How can the capacity to decide be improved as the
nature of work and institutions change?
9
How can shared values and new security
strategies reduce ethnic conflicts, terrorism, and
the use of weapons of mass destruction?
10
How can the changing status of
women improve the human condition?
11
How can transnational organized crime
networks be stopped from becoming
more powerful and sophisticated global
enterprises?
12
How can growing energy demands be
met safely and efficiently?
13
How can scientific and technological
breakthroughs be accelerated to improve
the human condition?
14
How can ethical considerations become more
routinely incorporated into global decisions?
15
How can sustainable development be achieved for all
while addressing global climate change?
How can everyone have sufficient clean water
without conflict?
How can population growth and resources be
brought into balance?
How can genuine democracy emerge
from authoritarian regimes?
How can decisionmaking be
enhanced by integrating improved
global foresight during
unprecedented accelerating
change?How can the global convergence of
information and communications
technologies work for everyone?
How can ethical market economies be
encouraged to help reduce the gap
between rich and poor?
How can the threat of new and reemerging
diseases and immune microorganisms be
reduced?
How can education make humanity more
intelligent, knowledgeable, and wise enough to
address its global challenges?
How can shared values and new security
strategies reduce ethnic conflicts, terrorism,
and the use of weapons of mass destruction?
How can the changing status of
women improve the human
condition?
How can growing energy demands
be met safely and efficiently?
How can scientific and technological
breakthroughs be accelerated to improve
the human condition?
How can ethical considerations become more
routinely incorporated into global decisions?
How can transnational organized crime
networks be stopped from becoming
more powerful and sophisticated global
enterprises?
Framework for understanding Global Change: 15 Global Challenges

4. 2015 State of the Future Index

5. 28 Variables use in the 2015 SOFI
• GNI per capita, PPP (constant 2011 int $)
• Economic income inequality (income share
held by highest 10%)
• Unemployment, total (% of world labor force)
• Poverty headcount ratio at $1.25 a day (PPP)
(percent of population)
• CPIA transparency, accountability, and
corruption in the public sector rating Foreign
direct investment, net inflows (BoP, current
US$, billions)
• R&D Expenditures (percent of GDP)
• Population growth (annual rate)
• Life expectancy at birth (years)
• Mortality rate, infant (per 1,000 live births)
• Prevalence of undernourishment percent of
population)
• Health expenditure per capita (current US$)
• Physicians (per 1,000 people)
• Improved water source (percent of population
with access)
• Renewable internal freshwater resources per capita (cubic
meters)
• Biocapacity per capita
• Forest area (percent of land area)
• Fossil fuel and cement production emissions (MtC/yr)
• Energy-efficiency (GDP per unit of energy use (constant 2011
PPP $ per kg of oil equivalent))
• Electricity production from renewable sources, excluding
hydroelectric (percent of total)
• Literacy rate, adult total (% of people ages 15 and above)
• School enrollment, secondary (percent gross)
• Share of high skilled employment (percent)
• Number of wars and serious arm conflicts
• Terrorism incidents
• Freedom rights (number of countries rated “free”)
• Proportion of seats held by women in national parliaments
(percent of members)
• Internet users (per 100 people)

6. World
Report Card
Where are
We Winning?
1.49
66.44
59.70
21.33
463.50
1.30
79.17
5.77
1.19
79.43
56.21
13.80
12.42
76.00
319.89
33.63
9,096.68
15.80
1.21
69.04
44.20
17.64
711.01
1.45
85.63
6.69
1.98
84.27
63.72
15.70
16.49
89.00
1,358.71
21.10
11,488.75
45.73
1.13
71.51
30.04
12.44
1,246.11
1.61
90.54
7.74
6.74
86.10
75.89
18.30
22.10
90.21
1,923.62
11.92
15,039.57
90.12
1.16
73.46
20.47
8.67
1,940.45
1.76
91.71
8.56
19.39
90.84
88.78
19.40
32.89
91.00
2,075.25
7.16
20,017.10
0.78
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Internet Users (per 100 people)
Population growth (annual %)
Life expectancy at birth (years)
Mortality rate, infant (per 1,000 live births)
Prevalence of undernourishment (% population)
Health expenditure per capita (US$)
Physicians (per 1,000 people)
Improved water sources (% population with access)
Energy-Efficiency (GDP/unit of energy use)
Electricity from renewables, excl. hydro (% of total)
Literacy rate, adult total (% of people ages 15+)
School enrollment, secondary (% gross)
Share of high skilled employment (%)
Women in national parliaments (% of members)
Freedom (number of countries rated free)
Foreign direct investment, net inflows (US$, billions)
Poverty ($1.25/day, PPP) (%)
GNI per capita (PPP, 2011 international $)
1995 2005 2015 2025

7. Where
are We
Losing?
World
Report Card
2.83
44.00
2.02
2.00
31.76
7,658
6,398
6.09
2.89
46.00
2.02
1.80
31.24
6,791
8,093
6.13
2.91
51.37
31.00
11,792
2.00
1.68
30.84
5,859
10,484
6.08
2.96
48.00
34.78
30,367
2.01
1.61
30.61
4,982
15,257
6.20
3,079 2,010
31.22
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Corruption in the public sector (1=low; 6=high)
Number of wars and serious arm conflicts (25+ deaths)
Income inequality (share of top 10%)
Terrorism incidents
R&D expenditures (% of GDP)
Biocapacity per capita (gha)
Forest area (% of land area)
Renewable internal freshwater resources (m3/capita)
Fossil fuel and cement production emissions (MtC/yr)
Unemployment (% of world labor force)
1995 2005 2015 2025

8. Initial Draft
Integrated Global
Strategy

9. Old way of looking at the Future of Technology
Artificial
Intelligence
Robotic
manufacturing
Computational Science
3-D4-D Priting
Nanotechnology
Quantum computing
Synthetic Biology
Drones
Artificial General
Intelligence
Tele-Everything &
Tele-Everybody
the SemanticWeb

10. Smart Phone Integration/Synergies

11. Future Technology Synergies
Robotic
manufacturing
Drones
Quantum
computing
Robotic
manufacturing
3D，4D Printing
Augmented Reality
Tele-Presence,
Holographics
Nanotechnology
Artificial General
Intelligence
Tele-Everything
Tele-Everybody
the SemanticWeb
Increasing
individual and
collective
intelligence
Synthetic Biology
Nanotechnology

12. Future Technology Synergies
Artificial
Intelligence
Robotic
manufacturing
Quantum
computing
Drones
Future
Technology
Robotic
manufacturing
3D，4D Printing
Augmented Reality,
Tele-Presence,
Holographics

13. When this
begins to
happen, the
speed of
increasing AI’s
intelligence will
be far faster
and produce
more change
than Moore’s
Law
by responding to feedback from
sensor networks worldwide,
will accelerate AI’s intelligence
worldwide… moment by moment
Artificial Intelligence … that can autonomously
“write” and improve its code…

14. What is possible… will change
Moore’s Law
+
Artificial Intelligence acceleration to AGI
+
Computational science
These three together will change what we think is possible.

15. If Then Nano-
technology
Synthetic
Biology
Artificial
Intelligence
Robotics 3-D Printing Augmented
Reality
Nano-
technology xxx
Synthetic
Biology xxx
Artificial
Intelligence xxx
Robotics
xxx
3-D Printing
xxx
Augmented
Reality xxx
EmergingTechnologiesTable

16. Some Long-Rage Future
International Security Threats
SIMAD
Organized Crime
Artificial Super Intelligence
Global Long-term Structural Unemployment
Nanotechnology – individual mass armies, gray goo
Augmented Geniuses – mini Hitlers, brain gap prejudice
Climate Change to Green Sky
Weakening Magnetic Poles

17. Reduce the likelihood of SIMADs
Technology
Sensors, mesh
networks, etc.
Public
Prevention &
Detection
Rolls
Mental
Health, Child
Development,
Education
Potential Global
Assessment by The
Millennium Project

18. Will our artificial Brains out think us?
Artificial Intelligence
1. Artificial Narrow Intelligence
2. Artificial General Intelligence
3. Artificial Super Intelligence

19. Future of Work?
Humans Augmented by technology
….rather than replaced by it?

20. If you can’t beat ‘em,
why not join ‘em?
…and evolve together?

21. Inevitability of New Economics
1. Concentration of wealth is increasing
2. Income gaps are widening
3. Employment-less economic growth seems the new normal
4. Return on investment in capital and technology is usually better
than labor
5. Number of persons per services & products is falling
6. 25-50% unemployment is a business-as-usual forecast by 2050
without new economic approaches
7. Need for national long-range strategic planning workshops

22. Future Work/Technology 2050 Study
1. Literature and Related Research Review
2. Real-Time Delphi
3. Road Maps and Scenario Drafts
4. RTDelphi Feedback on the Scenarios
5. Final Scenarios, Policy Implications, and produce initial report
6. Initial Report as input to the National Planning Workshops
7. Collect results of the national planning workshops, analyze &
synthesize results
8. Final report for public discussion

23. Guaranteed income –
cash flow projection elements
Income to Government
• License and tax Robots
• Carbon Tax
• Tobin tax – on international financial transfers
• Eliminate tax havens
• Universal minimum corporate tax
• Own percent of corporations
• Tax massive wealth growth like some IT
Lower annual cost of guaranteed income
• Consolidate welfare programs (unemployment payments, etc.) into the guaranteed income
• AI/robotics lowers to cost of living
• Free or very low cost health, education, transportation, and energy
Factors to consider
• National service; Minimum annual public work
• Phase in from work to “next” what every post-job/employment will be
• Different incomes in different areas, countries
• Can you both work income and guaranteed income?

24. Dense particles normally circling Earth, deep inside the magnetosphere,
can extend a long arm out to meet – and help block – incoming solar material.
http://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/plume.gif
The Magnetosphere may weaken
enough in 500 years to no longer
protect life on the Earth
The sooner we start making plans to
leave the earth, the better

25. Run Away Greenhouse
at 1000 ppm CO2: Jim Hanson,
NASA http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/fact-or-
fiction-runaway-greenhouse/
Hydrogen Sulfate 1000 ppm kills planetary
life , Peter Ward, Under a Green Sky
http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/paleontolog
ist-peter-wards-medea-hypothesis-life-is-out-to-get-you/
US-China Joint Goal: 350 ppm
The sooner we start making plans to leave
the earth, the better…Insurance Policy

26. A single individual acting along eventually will be able to
make and deploy a weapon of mass destruction (SIMAD)
The public was not involved in Nuclear Deterrence other
than paying taxes, SIMAD is different – the public is key
The sooner we start making plans to leave the earth,
the better…Insurance Policy

27. Ifthen IoT collapse Information
war paranoia
IQ, Brain gap
mini Hitlers
SIMAD Proliferation of
Nano Armies
Mass
Unemployment
IoT collapse
xxx
Information
war paranoia xxx
IQ, Brain gap,
mini Hitlers xxx
SIMAD
xxx
Proliferation of
Nano Armies xxx
Mass
Thinking the Unthinkable…
Interactions of what can go wrong

28. Collective Intelligence Systems:
Each Can Change the Other

29. Global Futures Intelligence System https://themp.org

30. … May become a TransInstitution
UN
Organizations
NGOs
and
Foundations
Universities
GovernmentsCorporations
The Millennium
Project

31. 56 Millennium Project Nodes...
Nodes identify participants, translate questionnaires and reports, and conduct interviews,
special research, workshops, symposiums, and advanced training.
are groups of experts and institutions that connect global and local views in:

32. Maybe… the greatest
number of future-
relevant facts,
information, and
intelligence ever
assembled in one
report.

33. 39 Chapters
1,300 pages
Largest
collection of
Internationally
peer-reviewed
methods to
explore the
future ever
assembled in
one source

34. For further information
Jerome C. Glenn
+1-202-686-5179 phone/fax
Jerome.Glenn@Millennium-Project.org
www.StateoftheFuture.org
Futures Research Methodology 3.0:
http://millennium-project.org/millennium/FRM-V3.html
2015-16 State of the Future:
http://millennium-project.org/millennium/201516SOF.html
Global Futures Intelligence System:
http://millennium-project.org/millennium/GFIS.html