The Millennium Project
and the

Global Futures Intelligence System
October 14, 2013

Jerome C. Glenn
The Millennium Projec...
… May become a TransInstitution

The Millennium
Project
Purposes of the Millennium Project
• Create a global and on-going capacity to improve thinking
about the future
• Make tha...
49 Millennium Project Nodes...
are groups of experts and institutions that connect global and local views in:

Nodes ident...
Scanning Framework: 15 Global Challenges–Our Agenda
How can sustainable development be achieved for all
How can sustainabl...
Scanning/up-dates/improvements for
15 Global Challenges each year
1. Input from Millennium Project’s Global Futures intell...
Futures Research Methodology 3.0

39 Chapters
1,300 pages
Largest collection of
Internationally peerreviewed methods to
ex...
29 Variables Scanned for the State of the
Future Index (SOFI) - World Report Card)
Where we are winning
•Improved water so...
Collective Intelligence
• It emerges from the integration
and synergies among
• data/info/knowledge
• software/hardware
• ...
An Application of Collective Intelligence:
Menu for each Global Challenge & Groups
1. Situation Chart: Current Situation; Desired Situation; and Policies
2. Report (...
For further information

The Millennium Project
4421 Garrison Street, NW,
Washington, D.C. 20016 USA
+1-202-686-5179 phone...
Talk at UNESCO OCT  2013 on scanning systems of The Millennium Project
Talk at UNESCO OCT  2013 on scanning systems of The Millennium Project
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in …5
×

Talk at UNESCO OCT 2013 on scanning systems of The Millennium Project

333 views

Published on

Published in: Technology
0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total views
333
On SlideShare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
1
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
6
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide
  • {}
  • Talk at UNESCO OCT 2013 on scanning systems of The Millennium Project

    1. 1. The Millennium Project and the Global Futures Intelligence System October 14, 2013 Jerome C. Glenn The Millennium Project
    2. 2. … May become a TransInstitution The Millennium Project
    3. 3. Purposes of the Millennium Project • Create a global and on-going capacity to improve thinking about the future • Make that thinking available through a variety of media for consideration in • policymaking • advanced training • educational curricula • public education • Continually respond to feedback, to accumulate wisdom about potential futures
    4. 4. 49 Millennium Project Nodes... are groups of experts and institutions that connect global and local views in: Nodes identify participants, translate questionnaires and reports, and conduct interviews, special research, workshops, symposiums, and advanced training.
    5. 5. Scanning Framework: 15 Global Challenges–Our Agenda How can sustainable development be achieved for all How can sustainable development be achieved for 1 all while addressing global climate change? while addressing global climate change? 2 HowHow can everyone have sufficient clean water can everyone have sufficient clean water without conflict? without conflict? 15 How How can ethical considerations become moremore can ethical considerations become 3 How can population growth and resources be Howcan population growth and resources be routinely incorporated into global decisions? routinely incorporated into global decisions? brought into balance? brought into balance? 4 14 How can genuine democracy emerge from How can genuine democracy emerge How can scientific and technological How can scientific and technological authoritarian regimes? from authoritarian regimes? breakthroughs be accelerated improve breakthroughs be accelerated to to improve the human condition? the human condition? 5 How can policymaking be made How can policymaking be made more 13 sensitive to global global long-term HowHow can growing energy demands can growing energy demands be more sensitive to long-term perspectives? met safely and efficiently? be met safely and efficiently? perspectives? How can transnational organized crime 12 How be stopped from becoming networks can transnational organized crime networks be stopped from becoming more more powerful and sophisticated global powerful and sophisticated global enterprises? enterprises? 6 How can the global convergence of of How can the global convergence information and communications information and communications technologies work for everyone? technologies work for everyone? 7 How can ethical market economies be How can the changing status of of How can the changing status How can ethical market economies be women improve the human women improve the human condition? encouraged to help reduce the gap encouragedto help reduce the gap between rich and rich condition? between poor? and poor? How How can shared values and new security can shared values and new security 10 8 How can the threat new and reemerging strategies reduce ethnicconflicts, terrorism, and How can the threat ofof new and reemerging strategies reduce ethnic conflicts, terrorism, the use weapons of mass mass destruction? diseasesand immune microorganisms be diseases and immune microorganisms be and theuse ofof weapons of destruction? reduced? reduced? How can the capacity to decide be improved as 9 How can the capacity to decide be improved as the the nature of of work institutions change? change? nature work and and institutions 11
    6. 6. Scanning/up-dates/improvements for 15 Global Challenges each year 1. Input from Millennium Project’s Global Futures intelligence System 2. Feedback from Millennium Project’s special studies – hidden hunger, natural coastal zone infrastructures, education, energy, etc. 3. Staff and Interns scanning other’s research and the Internet 4. Experts are asked to review last year’s text. 5. The 15 Global Challenges are on-line for public input in our main MP website 6. Regional input is requested from 49 Node Chairs around the world 7. Feedback is invited via Millennium Project email lists 8. Conferences, seminars, publications are monitored 9. Feedback from international travel and audiences like this 10.Then distilled for patterns and data double checked by staff
    7. 7. Futures Research Methodology 3.0 39 Chapters 1,300 pages Largest collection of Internationally peerreviewed methods to explore the future ever assembled in one source
    8. 8. 29 Variables Scanned for the State of the Future Index (SOFI) - World Report Card) Where we are winning •Improved water source (% of population access) •Literacy rate, adult total (% of people ages 15+ •School enrollment, secondary (% gross) •Poverty headcount ratio at $1.25 a day (PPP) (% of population in least developed countries) •Population growth (annual %) (A drop is seen as good for some countries, bad for others) •GDP per capita (constant 2000 US$) •Physicians (per 1,000 people) •Internet users (per 100 people) •Mortality rate, infant (per 1,000 live births) •Life expectancy at birth, total (years) •Proportion of seats held by women in national parliaments (%) •GDP per unit of energy •Major Armed Conflicts deaths >1,000 •Food availability (cal/cap) Where there is little change •Prevalence of HIV, total (% of pop. ages 15-49) •Homicide Rate •R & D expenditure (% of GDP) Where we are losing: •CO2 emissions (kt) •Global Surface Temperature Anomalies •People Voting in Elections (% population of voting age- 15 largest countries) •Unemployment, total (% of total labor force) •Fossil fuel energy consumption (% of total) •Levels of Corruption (15 largest countries) •People killed or injured in terrorist attacks (number) •Refugee population by country or territory of asylum Where there is uncertainty •Countries having or thought to have plans for nuclear weapons (number) •Population in Countries that are Free (percent of total global population) •Forest area (% of land area) •Total debt service (% of GNI) low and mid income •Number of emerging and reemerging infectious diseases
    9. 9. Collective Intelligence • It emerges from the integration and synergies among • data/info/knowledge • software/hardware • experts and others with insight • that continually learns from feedback • to produce just in time knowledge for better decisions • than these elements acting alone.
    10. 10. An Application of Collective Intelligence:
    11. 11. Menu for each Global Challenge & Groups 1. Situation Chart: Current Situation; Desired Situation; and Policies 2. Report (detailed text) on the challenge from State of the Future 3. News items (automatic news feeds – searchable) 4. Scanning (annotated, rated information) 5. On-going Real-Time Delphi questionnaires to collect expert judgments 6. Public comments 7. Discussion groups 8. Computer models (mathematical and rules-based), and conceptual models 9. Resources: websites, books, papers, videos 10. Updates – all edits 11. Digests – Recent scans, edits, discussions
    12. 12. For further information The Millennium Project 4421 Garrison Street, NW, Washington, D.C. 20016 USA +1-202-686-5179 phone/fax Jerome.Glenn@Millennium-Project.org www.StateoftheFuture.org www.themp.org (Global Futures Intelligence System)

    ×