Getting landscape approaches to lift off with the insights of decision analysis

1. Getting landscape approaches to lift
off with the insights of decision
analysis
Eike Luedeling
University of Bonn

2. Why do landscape
approaches sometimes
(often?) fail?
There‘s something we
overlooked
People didn‘t behave as
expected

3. How can we avoid such
disappointments?
We need to get better at
anticipating problems and risks…
We need ways to forecast the
behavior of all stakeholders…
… in complex landscapes full
of uncertainties

4. Similar challenge as decision-
making under uncertainty
Century-old field of research
Can we learn
from these
experiences?

5. Decision-focused research
Luedeling & Shepherd, 2016. Solutions 7(5), 46-54.
• Pragmatic, solution-oriented research approach
• Clarify decision options, objectives and impact
pathways
• Use all sources of information, including expert
and stakeholder knowledge
• Estimate all risks and uncertainties
• Use simulations to produce plausible outcome
distributions for all stakeholders
• Identify decision-critical knowledge gaps,
measure and update projections

6. Stakeholders
Decision-
makers
Summarize current
state of knowledge
Information on costs,
benefits & risks
Holistic, participatory
decision analysis
Impact
model
Decision
Experts
Decision-focused research
Calibration training
Calibrated
experts
Simulations
Outcome
forecasts
Preference clear?
Decision-focused
researcher
Identify critical
knowledge gaps
Decision-
supporting
research
yes no
Update
Recommendation

7. Decision analysis for more
effective landscape approaches
• Identify decisions that need to be taken
• Map all critical decision-makers
• Understand their objectives and constraints
• Analyze their decisions to identify weaknesses in
intervention designs
• Use decision models for monitoring and adaptive
management

8. Decision analysis can be an effective approach
to support landscape-scale interventions
Eike Luedeling – luedeling@uni-bonn.de