The document discusses using foresight approaches to engage stakeholders in shaping agricultural research agendas. It proposes a grassroots foresight initiative to empower farmer organizations through capacity building and global dialogue to develop local action plans. The CGIAR Research Program on Aquatic Agricultural Systems (AAS) seeks to apply these principles by engaging communities and stakeholders to identify priorities and develop multiple plausible futures across scales from community to global. AAS will pilot participatory scenario building and roll out community foresight activities to enable farmers and stakeholders to shape research agendas that can help them shape their own futures.

1. Future-smart Research
Agendas
Engaging and Empowering
Stakeholders through Foresight
Michael Phillips, Ranjitha Puskur, Sarah Park, Sharon Suri (AAS)
Robin Bourgeois (GFAR)

2. Using the Future
Meaning Actions Strategies
Passive Accept Wait Submit
Reactive Adapt React Wait
Pre-active Prepare Explore Anticipate
Pro-active + Intervene + Modify + Influence
Behavior
Forecast Foresight

3. Uneven Influence on Research & Policy
Agendas
• International community and organizations from advanced/emerging
countries shape agendas (absence of less developed countries,
farmers/CSOs)
• Focus on global issues
GCARD2, 2012

4. Grassroots Foresight Initiative
Asian Farmers’ Association (AFA)
Plateforme Régionale des Organisations Paysannes d’Afrique Centrale (PROPAC)
Confederación de Organizaciones de Productores Familiares del Mercosur
(COPROFAM)
Empowering farmers’
organizations through
foresight
Farmer-led Bottom-up Actionable
• Farmers as doers
• Capacity building
• Global dialogue
• Local initiatives
• Global priorities
• Local action plans

5. Grassroots Foresight Principles
• Inclusiveness: Gives a voice to marginalised groups in rural
communities
• Openness: Includes different perspectives, values and interests
• Documentation: Ensures rigor and transparency
• Bottom up: Links stakeholders across scales
• Actionable: Links scenarios with concrete actions
• Context-specific: Respects cultural and belief systems
• Mutual learning: Creates opportunities for learning from each other

6. Expected Outcomes
Future-
smart
Future smart farmer/civil society
organizations proactively engaged in
dialogues with other stakeholders, locally
and globally,
contributing to
Future smart research agendas
engaging locally and globally
scientists and citizens in
collaborative research and
development actions,
leading to
Innovative local and global
approaches and solutions to
increasingly complex
development issues

7. Aquatic agricultural systems (aas)

8. CGIAR Research Program on Aquatic
Agricultural System (AAS)
• Engages and empowers communities and stakeholders
• Research in development agenda based on stakeholder priorities
• Focus on poor and marginalised groups (particularly women)
• Focus on enhancing capacities to innovate and adapt

9. Distribution of aquatic agriculture systems

10. AAS Geographies
• High numbers of poor people dependent on aquatic agricultural systems
• Strong government support and good operational conditions
• Potential to scale out
Mekong
The Coral Triangle
GBM*
Zambezi
Niger
Lakes Victoria-
Kyoga
African Inland
Asia mega deltas

11. AAS and Foresight
Key questions:
• What are the plausible futures for the three main aquatic
agricultural systems?
• How can decision-makers (including farmers) at all
scales use these plausible futures to shift the research
agendas?
• How can AAS research help communities shape their
futures?
• What are the implications for development investment,
policy and practice?

12. AAS and Foresight
2015 • Pilot participatory scenario building activities in two
flagships (Asia and Africa)
• Development of medium-long term foresight strategy
2016 • Participatory scenario building activities in Island Systems
of SE Asia and Pacific
• Capacity development for integrating grassroots foresight
in program locations
2017 • Rollout of community level foresight

13. Nested Scales
National Regional Global
Drivers identified at each of the levels, but connected at multiple levels
Community Hub
Socio-
economic
Relevant stakeholders at these various levels engaged to develop
multiple plausible futures connected at different scales

14. Summary
• AAS is seeking to enable farmers and other stakeholders to shape
research agendas which can help them shape their futures
• Grassroots Foresight Initiative (GFI) aligned to the AAS RinD
approach
• AAS uses a ‘nested’ application of GFI to link stakeholders at all
scales

15. Thank You