Adobe PDF file of the Keynote slidedeck from my 22 June 2010 presentation to the Global Innovation Forum in Seoul, Korea. I was invited to speak on the future context for competitiveness in cities; I spoke last and most of the preceding speakers took a very econometric view. I wanted to emphasise that measuring and comparing competitiveness assumes a paradigm or model within which a city might be competitive -- and that economic and other paradigms might be very different across our possible futures. [Note that because it is an Adobe PDF file, it is missing some images and transitions available in the more graphically sophisticated Keyote environment.]
The Best way to do PEST Analysis
This slideshow provides a brief tutorial on a new diagrammatic method, developed at the world famous Henley Business School in the UK.
The new method overcomes some of the major weaknesses of traditional PEST /‘PESTLE (Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Legal, Environmental) analysis. Traditional PESTLE tends to generate a random list of unrelated facts – not very useful for understanding your business, developing strategy or convincing other business leaders.
We show how you can use the PESTLEWeb method to tell a clear and compelling ‘story’ that leads from key issues to business threats and opportunities.
PESTLEWeb is supported by a new tool at www.PESTLEWeb.com. The new web-based tool helps you create great graphics and enables the automatic generation of outline reports and tabulated data to support your paper or presentation.
WHO Foresight Approaches in Public Health.pdfWendy Schultz
Suggestions for expanding futures research and foresight capabilities in an organization, with an emphasis on broad participation by stakeholders; includes examples of multiple futures methods and linked processes.
Further exploration of the intersection of our models of time (eg, the futures cone) with chaos theory, complexity theory, images of the future and archetypes, and postnormal times theory.
Crazy Futures I an exploration on the necessity of pushing your thinking pas...Wendy Schultz
Don't merely consider what you think is plausible - recognise that you may not have the whole story on emerging changes, and that what's emerging may shatter the bounds of what's currently 'plausible'. Get creative, test assumptions, test values and worldviews.
"It's Chaos Turtles All the Way Down" - presentation for the Global Foresight...Wendy Schultz
An exploration of the tensions of goal-based, visions-based, and emergence-based futures work, an update on the futures cone, and some new turbulence methods mash-ups.
The Best way to do PEST Analysis
This slideshow provides a brief tutorial on a new diagrammatic method, developed at the world famous Henley Business School in the UK.
The new method overcomes some of the major weaknesses of traditional PEST /‘PESTLE (Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Legal, Environmental) analysis. Traditional PESTLE tends to generate a random list of unrelated facts – not very useful for understanding your business, developing strategy or convincing other business leaders.
We show how you can use the PESTLEWeb method to tell a clear and compelling ‘story’ that leads from key issues to business threats and opportunities.
PESTLEWeb is supported by a new tool at www.PESTLEWeb.com. The new web-based tool helps you create great graphics and enables the automatic generation of outline reports and tabulated data to support your paper or presentation.
WHO Foresight Approaches in Public Health.pdfWendy Schultz
Suggestions for expanding futures research and foresight capabilities in an organization, with an emphasis on broad participation by stakeholders; includes examples of multiple futures methods and linked processes.
Further exploration of the intersection of our models of time (eg, the futures cone) with chaos theory, complexity theory, images of the future and archetypes, and postnormal times theory.
Crazy Futures I an exploration on the necessity of pushing your thinking pas...Wendy Schultz
Don't merely consider what you think is plausible - recognise that you may not have the whole story on emerging changes, and that what's emerging may shatter the bounds of what's currently 'plausible'. Get creative, test assumptions, test values and worldviews.
"It's Chaos Turtles All the Way Down" - presentation for the Global Foresight...Wendy Schultz
An exploration of the tensions of goal-based, visions-based, and emergence-based futures work, an update on the futures cone, and some new turbulence methods mash-ups.
A brief history and description of visioning tools.Wendy Schultz
This starts with the little building a vision mosaic interactive exercise, and ends with the shared joys problem-to-vision exercise. What the slidedeck doesn't note is that we posted the vision detail cards from the first exercise, and clustered them thematically to let a more coherent structure for the vision emerge.
A fun think piece on possible futures for AI and its potential range of relationships with humanity - written in response to a request by editors at Critical Muslim to provide an AI-focussed version of their regular feature, "The List." Thanks to Zia Sardar.
Museum mash-up, or vectors of visioningWendy Schultz
This document summarizes a workshop where participants used several methods to envision future museums. The workshop:
1) Asked participants to envision alternative futures where they must recreate museums after a fictional disaster destroyed existing ones.
2) Had participants work in groups to generate impact cascades ("futures wheels") showing impacts of 3 novel changes and combine these into a single scenario of how the changes might interact.
3) Had participants further develop their future museum scenarios using a framework examining how human activities might change.
4) Had participants represent their future museum concepts visually using postcards and Legos to spark new insights.
5) Presented examples of future museums envisioned, including ones focused on transient experiences,
Melding machine learning and participatory foresightWendy Schultz
Describes a participatory process to help experts teach an algorithm to forecast possible futures for jobs and skills in the USA and the UK. Began with scanning data and asked participants to locate those emerging changes onto a map of a generic city and discuss the various impacts. This was followed by scoring how those changes would affect increase or decrease of certain jobs and skills in future labour markets; the scores were input into the algorithm to teach it. The process was iterative.
Tick TOCS Tick TOCS - channeling change through theory into scenariosWendy Schultz
Describes an original scenario-building method used to explore futures for education, based on combining scanning output with specific social change theories. The social change theories provided logical narrative arcs to evolve different futures from starting points in the present.
Crazy Futures: Why Plausibility is MaladaptiveWendy Schultz
Explores how images of the future are perceived and categorized, and how the discipline itself uses 'plausibility' as an evaluative criterion - and why that may be a mistake.
ORI BAM Warwick Scenarios 2018 Crowdsourcing Harman's FanWendy Schultz
This document describes Harman's Fan, a method for developing multiple narrative scenarios about alternative futures. It involves identifying possible future states, organizing them from sooner to later, and connecting sequences of states to create narratives. The document provides examples of Harman's Fan applied to the futures of universities and Hong Kong. It also describes the FutureScapers method for crowdsourcing changes, impacts, and interconnections to generate rich data for developing alternative futures narratives.
This document discusses the importance of vision and outlines various visioning methods and approaches. It provides examples of visions ranging from solving homelessness to preferences for future technologies. The key ideas are that visions are important for guiding positive change, various approaches to visioning exist, and creating shared visions can help unite groups and leverage transformational change for the better.
Keen eyes, sharp wits, kind hearts: women in futures studies.Wendy Schultz
This document discusses women's involvement in futures studies and anticipating the future. It summarizes two conferences focused on women in futures. The first was the Eleonora Masini Women in Futures Symposium in 2015, which celebrated women's contributions to building the field of futures studies. The second was the 2015 World Future Society conference, which prompted questions about the lack of female representation in futurism. The document examines various attempts to identify and list influential women working in futures thinking through social media analyses and compiled lists. However, it notes that much of the work of women in futures remains undiscovered or underrecognized.
Dr. Wendy Schultz earned her MA and PhD in Alternative Futures from the University of Hawai’i at Mānoa. She has over 30 years of experience in foresight practice. The document discusses a future where people can augment and redesign themselves through biological, chemical, or structural means. It poses a series of questions about how one might redesign themselves in 2035 by choosing a new supercapability, how they would use that capability, who else might join their new tribe, how their community would fit into society, and what would be considered ordinary or elite.
An overview of key activities in a complete futures / foresight study, with a 'shopper's guide' to relevant tools and methods to suit each activity. Use it to compose an integrated futures research project, soup to nuts.
"Blowing the Cobwebs Off Your Mind" BootcampWendy Schultz
A futures research and foresight methods workshop by SAMI Consulting, Laurie Young, and Infinite Futures - focus on patterns of change over time, using past timelines, Three Horizons, and the Gartner Hype Cycle, and age cohort analysis; CLA; Verge; and Futures Wheels.
CLA is a post-structural futures method developed by Sohail Inayatullah. This slidedeck presents a brief intro with examples for use in facilitation and discussion.
Collecting stories about future uses of blockchain technologyWendy Schultz
This slidedeck briefly introduces blockchain technology and then requests readers to share a scenario - a story of a possible future - of possible uses for blockchain tech in the future. The stories can be shared on Sensemaker, and the slidedeck gives a step-by-step demo of how that would work. The deck then lists possible future users as prompts for your imaginative exploration of how blockchain technology might affect people in all walks of life and sectors.
Houston Spring 2016 : Crowdsourcing Blockchain ScenariosWendy Schultz
A presentation to the University of Houston spring futures gathering 2016 on using Sensemaker to crowdsource mini-scenarios about potential future uses for blockchain technologies.
This document appears to be a collection of graphics and text from a WIRED feature on future technologies and their implications. It discusses emerging technologies like CRISPR-Cas9, AI, robotics, self-driving vehicles, 3D printing, distributed ledgers/cryptocurrencies, and impacts of climate change. Accompanying text frames these as dramatic tensions around who benefits and who loses out, and how these technologies could be used, regulated, and transform society. Specific events mentioned include ALPHAGO beating a human at Go, and a FutureFest conference in the UK in September 2016.
World Future Society 2015 Professional Members ForumWendy Schultz
Slidedeck on the 2015 WFS Professional Members Forum "Software Sandbox" morning session, presented by Dr Wendy Schultz, Infinite Futures, and Dr Richard Lum, Vision Foresight Strategy.
Scanning to Manage Disruption and Controversy PACITA 2015Wendy Schultz
An overview of horizon scanning for change management that reviews the results of previous scanning projects and presents some innovative software platforms to support futures and foresight research.
Crazy Futures I an exploration on the necessity of pushing your thinking past...Wendy Schultz
Don't merely consider what you think is plausible - recognise that you may not have the whole story on emerging changes, and that what's emerging may shatter the bounds of what's currently 'plausible'. Get creative, test assumptions, test values and worldviews.
Unlocking WhatsApp Marketing with HubSpot: Integrating Messaging into Your Ma...Niswey
50 million companies worldwide leverage WhatsApp as a key marketing channel. You may have considered adding it to your marketing mix, or probably already driving impressive conversions with WhatsApp.
But wait. What happens when you fully integrate your WhatsApp campaigns with HubSpot?
That's exactly what we explored in this session.
We take a look at everything that you need to know in order to deploy effective WhatsApp marketing strategies, and integrate it with your buyer journey in HubSpot. From technical requirements to innovative campaign strategies, to advanced campaign reporting - we discuss all that and more, to leverage WhatsApp for maximum impact. Check out more details about the event here https://events.hubspot.com/events/details/hubspot-new-delhi-presents-unlocking-whatsapp-marketing-with-hubspot-integrating-messaging-into-your-marketing-strategy/
A brief history and description of visioning tools.Wendy Schultz
This starts with the little building a vision mosaic interactive exercise, and ends with the shared joys problem-to-vision exercise. What the slidedeck doesn't note is that we posted the vision detail cards from the first exercise, and clustered them thematically to let a more coherent structure for the vision emerge.
A fun think piece on possible futures for AI and its potential range of relationships with humanity - written in response to a request by editors at Critical Muslim to provide an AI-focussed version of their regular feature, "The List." Thanks to Zia Sardar.
Museum mash-up, or vectors of visioningWendy Schultz
This document summarizes a workshop where participants used several methods to envision future museums. The workshop:
1) Asked participants to envision alternative futures where they must recreate museums after a fictional disaster destroyed existing ones.
2) Had participants work in groups to generate impact cascades ("futures wheels") showing impacts of 3 novel changes and combine these into a single scenario of how the changes might interact.
3) Had participants further develop their future museum scenarios using a framework examining how human activities might change.
4) Had participants represent their future museum concepts visually using postcards and Legos to spark new insights.
5) Presented examples of future museums envisioned, including ones focused on transient experiences,
Melding machine learning and participatory foresightWendy Schultz
Describes a participatory process to help experts teach an algorithm to forecast possible futures for jobs and skills in the USA and the UK. Began with scanning data and asked participants to locate those emerging changes onto a map of a generic city and discuss the various impacts. This was followed by scoring how those changes would affect increase or decrease of certain jobs and skills in future labour markets; the scores were input into the algorithm to teach it. The process was iterative.
Tick TOCS Tick TOCS - channeling change through theory into scenariosWendy Schultz
Describes an original scenario-building method used to explore futures for education, based on combining scanning output with specific social change theories. The social change theories provided logical narrative arcs to evolve different futures from starting points in the present.
Crazy Futures: Why Plausibility is MaladaptiveWendy Schultz
Explores how images of the future are perceived and categorized, and how the discipline itself uses 'plausibility' as an evaluative criterion - and why that may be a mistake.
ORI BAM Warwick Scenarios 2018 Crowdsourcing Harman's FanWendy Schultz
This document describes Harman's Fan, a method for developing multiple narrative scenarios about alternative futures. It involves identifying possible future states, organizing them from sooner to later, and connecting sequences of states to create narratives. The document provides examples of Harman's Fan applied to the futures of universities and Hong Kong. It also describes the FutureScapers method for crowdsourcing changes, impacts, and interconnections to generate rich data for developing alternative futures narratives.
This document discusses the importance of vision and outlines various visioning methods and approaches. It provides examples of visions ranging from solving homelessness to preferences for future technologies. The key ideas are that visions are important for guiding positive change, various approaches to visioning exist, and creating shared visions can help unite groups and leverage transformational change for the better.
Keen eyes, sharp wits, kind hearts: women in futures studies.Wendy Schultz
This document discusses women's involvement in futures studies and anticipating the future. It summarizes two conferences focused on women in futures. The first was the Eleonora Masini Women in Futures Symposium in 2015, which celebrated women's contributions to building the field of futures studies. The second was the 2015 World Future Society conference, which prompted questions about the lack of female representation in futurism. The document examines various attempts to identify and list influential women working in futures thinking through social media analyses and compiled lists. However, it notes that much of the work of women in futures remains undiscovered or underrecognized.
Dr. Wendy Schultz earned her MA and PhD in Alternative Futures from the University of Hawai’i at Mānoa. She has over 30 years of experience in foresight practice. The document discusses a future where people can augment and redesign themselves through biological, chemical, or structural means. It poses a series of questions about how one might redesign themselves in 2035 by choosing a new supercapability, how they would use that capability, who else might join their new tribe, how their community would fit into society, and what would be considered ordinary or elite.
An overview of key activities in a complete futures / foresight study, with a 'shopper's guide' to relevant tools and methods to suit each activity. Use it to compose an integrated futures research project, soup to nuts.
"Blowing the Cobwebs Off Your Mind" BootcampWendy Schultz
A futures research and foresight methods workshop by SAMI Consulting, Laurie Young, and Infinite Futures - focus on patterns of change over time, using past timelines, Three Horizons, and the Gartner Hype Cycle, and age cohort analysis; CLA; Verge; and Futures Wheels.
CLA is a post-structural futures method developed by Sohail Inayatullah. This slidedeck presents a brief intro with examples for use in facilitation and discussion.
Collecting stories about future uses of blockchain technologyWendy Schultz
This slidedeck briefly introduces blockchain technology and then requests readers to share a scenario - a story of a possible future - of possible uses for blockchain tech in the future. The stories can be shared on Sensemaker, and the slidedeck gives a step-by-step demo of how that would work. The deck then lists possible future users as prompts for your imaginative exploration of how blockchain technology might affect people in all walks of life and sectors.
Houston Spring 2016 : Crowdsourcing Blockchain ScenariosWendy Schultz
A presentation to the University of Houston spring futures gathering 2016 on using Sensemaker to crowdsource mini-scenarios about potential future uses for blockchain technologies.
This document appears to be a collection of graphics and text from a WIRED feature on future technologies and their implications. It discusses emerging technologies like CRISPR-Cas9, AI, robotics, self-driving vehicles, 3D printing, distributed ledgers/cryptocurrencies, and impacts of climate change. Accompanying text frames these as dramatic tensions around who benefits and who loses out, and how these technologies could be used, regulated, and transform society. Specific events mentioned include ALPHAGO beating a human at Go, and a FutureFest conference in the UK in September 2016.
World Future Society 2015 Professional Members ForumWendy Schultz
Slidedeck on the 2015 WFS Professional Members Forum "Software Sandbox" morning session, presented by Dr Wendy Schultz, Infinite Futures, and Dr Richard Lum, Vision Foresight Strategy.
Scanning to Manage Disruption and Controversy PACITA 2015Wendy Schultz
An overview of horizon scanning for change management that reviews the results of previous scanning projects and presents some innovative software platforms to support futures and foresight research.
Crazy Futures I an exploration on the necessity of pushing your thinking past...Wendy Schultz
Don't merely consider what you think is plausible - recognise that you may not have the whole story on emerging changes, and that what's emerging may shatter the bounds of what's currently 'plausible'. Get creative, test assumptions, test values and worldviews.
Unlocking WhatsApp Marketing with HubSpot: Integrating Messaging into Your Ma...Niswey
50 million companies worldwide leverage WhatsApp as a key marketing channel. You may have considered adding it to your marketing mix, or probably already driving impressive conversions with WhatsApp.
But wait. What happens when you fully integrate your WhatsApp campaigns with HubSpot?
That's exactly what we explored in this session.
We take a look at everything that you need to know in order to deploy effective WhatsApp marketing strategies, and integrate it with your buyer journey in HubSpot. From technical requirements to innovative campaign strategies, to advanced campaign reporting - we discuss all that and more, to leverage WhatsApp for maximum impact. Check out more details about the event here https://events.hubspot.com/events/details/hubspot-new-delhi-presents-unlocking-whatsapp-marketing-with-hubspot-integrating-messaging-into-your-marketing-strategy/
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Adani Group's Active Interest In Increasing Its Presence in the Cement Manufa...Adani case
Time and again, the business group has taken up new business ventures, each of which has allowed it to expand its horizons further and reach new heights. Even amidst the Adani CBI Investigation, the firm has always focused on improving its cement business.
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Efficient PHP Development Solutions for Dynamic Web ApplicationsHarwinder Singh
Unlock the full potential of your web projects with our expert PHP development solutions. From robust backend systems to dynamic front-end interfaces, we deliver scalable, secure, and high-performance applications tailored to your needs. Trust our skilled team to transform your ideas into reality with custom PHP programming, ensuring seamless functionality and a superior user experience.
Cover Story - China's Investment Leader - Dr. Alyce SUmsthrill
In World Expo 2010 Shanghai – the most visited Expo in the World History
https://www.britannica.com/event/Expo-Shanghai-2010
China’s official organizer of the Expo, CCPIT (China Council for the Promotion of International Trade https://en.ccpit.org/) has chosen Dr. Alyce Su as the Cover Person with Cover Story, in the Expo’s official magazine distributed throughout the Expo, showcasing China’s New Generation of Leaders to the World.
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Prescriptive analytics BA4206 Anna University PPTFreelance
Business analysis - Prescriptive analytics Introduction to Prescriptive analytics
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Demonstrating Business Performance Improvement
1. Dr. Wendy L. Schultz Future Outlook
Director, Infinite Futures
on
Principal, SAMI Consulting
Advisory Board, Shaping Tomorrow Urban
Competitiveness
Fellow, World Futures Studies Federation
Fellow, Royal Society for the Arts
Challenging
+
Complex
+
Creative
+
Courageous
=
Competitive
2. Five Key Activities
of Integrated Foresight
Identify & Critique Imagine Envision Plan &
Monitor Change Change the Possible the Preferred Implement
Identify
patterns of
Examine
primary,
Identify,
analyze, and
Identify,
analyze,
Identify
stakeholders, Integrated
change:
trends in
chosen
secondary,
tertiary
impacts;
build
alternative
images of
and
articulate
images of
resources;
clarify goals;
design
Foresight
variables, inequities in the future, preferred strategies;
changes in impacts; or futures, or organize
cycles, and differential ’scenarios.’ ’visions.’ action; create
emerging access, etc. change.
issues of
change.
Why explore possible futures?
3. Five Key Activities
of Integrated Foresight
Identify & Critique Imagine Envision Plan &
Monitor Change Change the Possible the Preferred Implement
Identify
patterns of
Examine
primary,
Identify,
analyze, and
Identify,
analyze,
Identify
stakeholders, Integrated
change:
trends in
chosen
secondary,
tertiary
impacts;
build
alternative
images of
and
articulate
images of
resources;
clarify goals;
design
Foresight
variables, inequities in the future, preferred strategies;
changes in impacts; or futures, or organize
cycles, and differential ’scenarios.’ ’visions.’ action; create
emerging access, etc. change.
issues of
change.
Why explore possible futures?
4. Because change happenz...
The original presentation featured an embedded
video of the Zurich “Change happenz” ad, which
may be found on YouTube here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s-ktjF2bXIo&feature=related.
This was to underscore the notion that plans rest
on assumptions and mental models, and change
renders our assumptions and mental models no
longer fit for purpose, or transforms them entirely
- as acknowledged by a major global corporation.
13. Working assumptions,eg:
1. Agricultural land only contributes 2.8% to
South Korea’s GDP;
2. Patterns of housing and standards of living
remain essentially the same or improve;
3. Globalization and its advantages continue;
4. Human values hardwired into us as social
primates; and
5. Most significant market actions are human.
14. 2050 possibilities
suggested by scanning:
1. In 2050, agricultural land contributes
SIGNIFICANTLY more to the South Korean economy;
2. In 2050, houses / housing developments take up
CONSIDERABLY more space;
3. By 2050, the era of cheap-transport-derived
globalization advantages is long gone;
4. In 2050, we are not your grandfather’s primates;
5. In 2050, the internet will be smarter than we are: by
2018, the internet will have a million times as many
nodes as the human brain, and it will have senses, courtesy
of the cameras and microphones and compasses and
accelerometers built into our cell-phones, not to
mention the internet of things...
17. The End of the World as We Know It
Life / Culture / Discovery /
Origin Global Warming Global Cooling
Demography Society Innovation
Fire Fade
Decreasing stability Accelerating change;
Desertification; slow and security locally nano-bio-info-cogno
End of interglacial, Slow decline in
Gradual sea-level rise; aquifer and internationally as convergence; ability
transition to fertility worldwide
Changes intrusion; agricultural people compete for to manipulate
glaciation. followed by global
decline. scarce resources. “nature” / ourselves.
population decline.
Flood Meltdown Sustain
New “little ice age,” Famine: starvation;
Singularity: radical
Increased sea melt, generated by, eg, depressed immune Mass civil unrest and
innovation feedback
Abrupt partial collapse of increased volcanic systems; resistant border / regional
blows away human /
Changes the West Antarctic dust and/or shifts in infectious agents and conflicts; failed states
machine /natural
Ice Shelf: sea level Gulf Stream. zoogenesis. explode.
boundaries.
rises 1 metre.
Ice Plague Blowup Transform
Warlord deploys Discovery of Grand
Asteroid strike
Wild Card / Super-volcano or Global plague: bio-WMD against Unifying Theory /
superheats Earth’s
Discontinuities Nuclear Winter population collapse. neighbouring “Theory of
atmosphere.
territory. Everything”
19. Within thirty years, we will have
the technological means to create
superhuman intelligence.
Shortly after, the human era will
Transform be ended.
Vernor Vinge,
On the Singularity
presented at the VISION-21 Symposium
sponsored by NASA Lewis Research center and
the Ohio Aerospace Institute, 30-31 March 1993
(http://mindstalk.net/vinge/vinge-sing.html).
In the late 21st C, the convergence of innovations in information technology, bio-
engineering, nanotechnology, and the cognitive sciences created a self-reinforcing
acceleration of transformative change. These innovations were underpinned by the
paradigm shifts emerging from complexity and chaos theory, and in turn catalysed a
state of accelerating and near-continuous transformations in worldview.
The results? a completely and continuously mutable reality -- people can bioengineer
themselves and “nature”; the human - machine interface is completely porous, with
biochips and DNA processors extending “pervasive computing” into the human body;
smart machines co-design and re-design themselves and, in concert with their post-
human partners, co-design and re-design the worlds around them. Assembly and re-
assembly at the atomic level are almost literally child’s play.
The late 21st century is also post-consumerist, post-literate, and post-Earth:
by the end of the 21st century the boundaries between producers and consumers
had been all but erased with pervasive home fabrication capability;
literacy had evolved into mediacy, and the new global pidgin owed as much to drawn from Ray Kurzweil, The
Mandarin and movies, and Hindi and high-impact role-playing games, as to Singularity is Near, 2005; Jim Dator,
English and the Latin languages. “Ubiquitous, Dream, Transformational,
the best and brightest have evolved as ‘homo stellae’, leaving the cradle of Earth, and Other Futures,” 2006.
or ‘homo oceanus’, adapted to life on and under the seas. [continued next slide]
“...technology will be the metaphorical opposable thumb that enables our next step
in evolution.” (Kurzweil)
16
20. Within thirty years, we will have
the technological means to create
superhuman intelligence.
Shortly after, the human era will
Transform be ended.
Vernor Vinge,
On the Singularity
presented at the VISION-21 Symposium
sponsored by NASA Lewis Research center and
the Ohio Aerospace Institute, 30-31 March 1993
(http://mindstalk.net/vinge/vinge-sing.html).
By 2100, humans, and their technologies, and the environments of both, have all three
merged into the same thing. Humans, as humans, lost their monopoly on intelligence,
while new forms of artificial life and artificial intelligence emerged, eventually perhaps
to supercede humanity, while the once "natural" environments of Earth became
exercises in managed evolution that were (and are still) continuously envisioned,
designed, created and transformed first by humans and then in conjunction with our
post-human successors (paraphrased from Dator). From homo sapiens sapiens to homo
sapiens silica and homo sapiens stellae and oceanus, and bio-silica sapiens.
Lives are long, experience a currency, education continuous, production and governance
open-source and blurred between the local and global, and children few. The
population has declined and scattered, and old installations attract the idle curiosity of
nanotech-enabled amateur archaeologists of all ages. The ‘ancient world’ artifacts of
pre-singularity humanity are seen as interesting curios of species childhood. drawn from Ray Kurzweil, The
Singularity is Near, 2005; Jim Dator,
“Ubiquitous, Dream, Transformational,
and Other Futures,” 2006.
“...technology will be the metaphorical opposable thumb that enables our next step
in evolution.” (Kurzweil)
17
23. Wiring Up Our Brains
• The Emotiv headset (pictured right) is the first
commercially available user interface allowing
people to control computers with their brainwaves.
• Implantable chips connecting microprocessors to
the human nervous system have been prototyped
and tested, both by Prof. Kevin Warwick at
Reading, and also via the Braingate chip, used as a
therapeutic implant for a paralyzed patient. Intel
forecasts that chips in brains will control
computers by 2020.
• This will be accelerated by the recent
announcement of the BCI (brain computer
interface) X-Prize, organized by the Singularity
University and the X-Prize Foundation.
20
24. graphics from WIRED’s “Found: Artifacts of the Future” feature.
Our belongings evolve: AI.
25. graphics from WIRED’s “Found: Artifacts of the Future” feature.
Transforming transit and transport?
26. A “SensorNet of
Things”
• Connections will multiply and create an entirely new dynamic network of
networks – an Internet of Things.
• There will be an increasing convergence of technologies whereby a
number of disparate goods and services may be coupled with IT in the
same way in which mobile phones, for example are currently capable of
taking video footage and photographs and permitting access to the Web.
• New ICTs enable 'ubiquitous computing' or 'ambient intelligence' to play
an increasing role in our lives through the use of embedded devices which
can continuously collect and process information. The devices sense
movement and monitor how individuals interact with objects such as
vehicles and domestic appliances, making it possible to 'customise' the
use of technology in the home, the workplace, and elsewhere.
• By 2036 'it is likely that the majority of the global population will find it
difficult to ‘turn the outside world off ’. ICT is likely to be so pervasive
that people are permanently connected to a network or two-way data
stream with inherent challenges to civil liberties; being disconnected
could be considered suspicious.
• Our “things” will be increasingly embedded with sensors allowing them to
monitor their own operations, need for supplies, the ambient
environment, and to connect with other appliances and devices -- and us
-- through the Internet.
23
27. 3D ‘fabbers’:
printing anything.
• Fab@Home distributes “open-hardware” plans and DIY
instructions for building simple, low-cost home “fabbers.”
Fabbers are 3D printers or prototypers. They replicate
objects from plans supplied by a computer, and can use a
variety of materials, from metal to plastic to sugar or
chocolate. It is possible not only to print 3D objects, but to
print objects with moving parts. Commercial fabbers are
also available, and prices are dropping rapidly.
• Researchers at the University of California have designed “Such devices could change
optical decoding software that is good enough to create a how we acquire common
working copy of a key by analysing a photograph of the key. products. Instead of buying an
Once the key type and code is identified, the software can iPod, you would download the
drive a key-cutting tool, creating duplicates of the original. 5 plans over the Internet and the
• The world is increasingly being recorded to high-quality fabber would make one for
digital databases; cell phone cameras are increasingly high you.”
definition. - Prof. Hod Lipson, Cornell
24
29. Fade
Fade Away: aging cities
Detroit: about 90,000 abandoned and
vacant buildings; about 30% of the city's
housing is vacant.
Flint: the original home of General
Motors, which once employed 79,000
local people but now only around 8,000;
unemployment is approaching 20%; the drawn from Patrick McIlheran, “The ruins
of Detroit,” Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel,
June 15, 2010: http://www.jsonline.com/
total population has almost halved. blogs/news/93934929.html; BBC2,
“Requiem for Detroit,” http://
www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b00rkm3y;
and Tom Leonard, “US cities may have to
be bull-dozed to survive,” Telegraph.co.uk,
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/
financetopics/financialcrisis/5516536/US-
26 cities-may-have-to-be-bulldozed-in-order-
to-survive.html.
30. Fade
Pruning cities.
50 cities have been identified in a recent
study by the Brookings Institution, an
influential Washington think-tank, as
potentially needing to shrink
substantially to cope with their declining
fortunes.
Strategy: buy back vacant/abandoned drawn from Patrick McIlheran, “The ruins
of Detroit,” Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel,
sites, demolish, convert to meadow, park, June 15, 2010: http://www.jsonline.com/
blogs/news/93934929.html; BBC2,
urban farms, art installations. “Requiem for Detroit,” http://
www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b00rkm3y;
and Tom Leonard, “US cities may have to
be bull-dozed to survive,” Telegraph.co.uk,
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/
financetopics/financialcrisis/5516536/US-
27 cities-may-have-to-be-bulldozed-in-order-
to-survive.html.
31. Fade
excerpted from RE-BURBIA design contest
organized by Inhabitat and Dwell, http://
www.re-burbia.com/.
Recycling suburbs:
re-thinking middle class sprawl.
32. Fade
excerpted from RE-BURBIA design contest
organized by Inhabitat and Dwell, http://
www.re-burbia.com/.
Recycling suburbs:
re-thinking middle class sprawl.
33. Fade
excerpted from RE-BURBIA design contest
organized by Inhabitat and Dwell, http://
www.re-burbia.com/.
Recycling suburbs:
re-thinking middle class sprawl.
34. Fade
excerpted from RE-BURBIA design contest
organized by Inhabitat and Dwell, http://
www.re-burbia.com/.
Recycling suburbs:
re-thinking middle class sprawl.
35. Fade
excerpted from RE-BURBIA design contest
organized by Inhabitat and Dwell, http://
www.re-burbia.com/.
Recycling suburbs:
re-thinking middle class sprawl.
36. Fade
drawn from BLDGBLOG, “Crypto-forestry
and the return of the repressed,” http://
bldgblog.blogspot.com/2010/06/crypto-
forestry-and-return-of-repressed.html;
photo: from personal library: plants reclaim
building in the Indian quarter of Singapore.
Urban crypto-forests:
Nature moves back.
39. Transforming Food
Dominance
Sustain
of paradigm / worldview
commercial intensified agriculture vs.
organic artisanal agriculture
Fading 3rd horizon
paradigms &
technologies
Transition hydroponics and
“Cornucopia”
paradigms & aeroponics
food printer
technologies 2nd horizon
Pockets of
future found
cloned-tissue meat production 1st horizon
In present vs. tourist ‘art’ cattle
Time
“present” “future”
40. Transforming Food
• “Cornucopia” food
• Aeroponics: NASA printer - MIT student
developed, now small- design: extrudes
scale products and favourite ingredients
large-scale research / and then heats or
design centers cools as appropriate.
• Constraints: costs of
infrastructure
• Paradigm shift: from
earth to Spaceship Earth
• In-vitro meat: PETA has
offered a $1 mn “X-
Prize” for science team
that develops
commercially viable
process
• Constraints: social
attitudes re: natural
foods - snobbery /
luxury backlash
• Paradigm shift: from
natural to biodesigned
41. Blurring the Urban and Rural
Dominance
Sustain
of paradigm / worldview
urban-rural
agricultural divide
Fading 3rd horizon
paradigms &
technologies
Transition
urban agriculture &
paradigms &
vertical agriculture;
technologies
vertical ecologies; 2nd horizon
and ‘pooktre’
Pockets of
future found natural systems agriculture:
melding ecology and agronomy 1st horizon
In present
Time
“present” “future”
42. Blurring the Urban and Rural
• Vertical Farm research centre attracting both professionals and students of design
•Constraints: costs of new installations - finding investors; regulations; retrofitting costs
• Land Institute: creating prairie-
like perennial agriculture
• Constraints: in development
• Paradigm shift: biomimicry
43. A “PowerNet of
Things”
Power generation capability built into
everything:
small gadgets: solar rechargers
houses / residences: solar, wind, and piezo-electric
clothing and floors: piezo-electric (pressure) rechargers
infrastructure: desalination plants are also power plants
roadways: piezo-electric and solar generation
Power stored, recycled, sold on:
Extra energy can be ‘stored’ as hydrogen via chemical
process similar to photosynthesis
Closes loop to create viable hydrogen / fuel cell economy
Sustain
36
44. Biomimicry: designing from nature
Scientists, engineers and designers
increasingly innovate by studying
nature’s efficiencies, following Zimbabwe office
complex air
these rules of thumb: conditioning
modeled on air flow
– Nature runs on sunlight; within termite
mound.
– Nature uses only the energy it needs;
– Nature fits form to function;
– Nature recycles everything; Self-cleaning fabrics and glass
modeled on surface structure
– Nature rewards cooperation; of a lotus leaf.
– Nature banks on diversity;
– Nature demands local expertise;
– Nature curbs excess from within;
– Nature taps the power of limits.
What would your city look like if planned by these rules?
Sustain
46. ‘For now, the amounts [of
Growth of local currency] in circulation
are minuscule. Most are a
gesture of defiance against
globalisation by encouraging
New Currencies local commerce rather than a
rigorous economic
experiment. But there may be
more converts if monetary
policy eventually runs out of
road.’
• The New Economics Foundation recently argued that in – The Economist
the long term we ‘need to re-link our money system and
currencies to local and regional economies, so that if the
national (or even international) currency collapses, others
will continue to enable people to conduct economic
exchange’. Bernard Lietaer cites the example of the Swiss
WIR B2B model, which has been proven to act as a
‘significant counter-cyclical stabilizing factor’.
• In the UK, 30,000 ‘Lewes Pounds’ have been issued since
the local currency was launched in Lewes, East Sussex, in
September 2008; in Detroit ‘Detroit Cheers’ have been
used in an attempt to reinvigorate downtown areas.
• Digital currencies also generate economic growth: Second
Life’s Linden dollars have fueled an economy robust
enough to create real-world millionaires
39
47. Crowdsourced: Credit, Investment, Philanthropy
Dominance
of paradigm / worldview
captains of industry,
dragons’ dens, angel
investors
Fading 3rd horizon
Everyone’s
paradigms & a vendor:
technologies Square
Grameen Bank
microcredit;
Transition
Zopa person-to-
paradigms &
person lending;
technologies
‘crowd-funding’, 2nd horizon
eg, “Diaspora”
Pockets of
future found • Constraints: momentum/inertia of current investment
systems and traditional approaches 1st horizon
In present • Paradigm shift: from top-down to networked/dispersed
“present” “future” Time
48. ‘Lease, don’t own’: Community Ownership
• The general shift from commerce dominated by products to a service-based
economy is starting to affect the possession and use of goods. It is increasingly
common for tangible or intangible goods to be accessed for a short period of
time on a licensed basis, as if they were an externally-held service.
• Examples: Zipcar, USA and London; Windcar, Japan. About two thirds of
Zipcar's members are under 35 and based on survey data, the company says
that more than 40 percent of Zipcar users either sell their car or decide not to
buy one.
• Such leasing arrangements could expand until nearly all fixed assets could in
principle be leased to business and consumers rather than be owned by them.
• Leasing and short-term access models have grown for entertainment (e.g.
iTunes, Spotify, Lovefilm). ‘Lease, don’t own’ models may expand to other
areas of life, and more companies may become involved in financing leases.
Participation in car sharing Sources: Foresight/GOS (2009) Sigma Scan (270);
DFT (2008) Public experiences of car sharing
by age, UK
50. Emerging patterns
of leverage:
Printing From economies
Everything of scale...
Printing electronics to economies of
Printing 3D objects grid
Printing food
Printing organic tissue
Each home a
micro-state /
Nets of Everything
economy.
Internet of things
Sensornet of things Parsimony:
Powernet of things sustainability as
Blur elegant design
43
53. The future will be framed by how we answer
five fundamental questions:
DEFINE: What new concepts, ideas, and
paradigms will emerge to help us make sense
of the world?
RELATE: How will we live together on planet
Earth?
CONNECT: What arts and technologies will
we use to connect people, places, and things?
CREATE: As human beings what will we be
inspired to create?
CONSUME: How will we use the earth’s
resources?
Michele Bowman and Kaipo Lum
How do we create competitive
cities for the future?