Presentation of project scope given at a conference of Fulbright scholars conducting research in Southeast Asia (Bangkok, March 2011)

1. Lifecycle Cost Analysis of Electric, Hybrid, and Conventional Vehicles in Singapore Samir M. Nazir Under the guidance of WONG Yuk Sum

2. About me BSME 2001 – University of Texas 2002-2008: Baker Hughes (oilfield services) Summer 2009 – EAR, FWHA, USDOT Fall 2009 – OES, State Dept 2010 – Magna Powertrain MS-STPP 2011 – Rochester Institute of Technology Fuel conversion of UAV engine Catalyst deactivation in SOFC diesel reformers Thesis: Variation of PHEV benefits across the US This is a presentation discussing project scope before final results were developed. This work is currently in progress.

3. Why Singapore? Research conducted at ESI Interactions with Chinese automotive industry Cross-section of Asia Financial hub, but governed by technocrats Proximity to rapidly developing economies while being comparatively advanced This is a presentation discussing project scope before final results were developed. This work is currently in progress.

4. Energy Studies Institute Policy-oriented research institute that seeks to produce independent research to inform debate on energy issues of key interest Research and analysis on energy economics, security and the environment that affect the national, regional and global arena Concerned with the threat of a worldwide depletion of fossil fuels, the impact of climate change, and the growing importance of geopolitics on energy supplies This is a presentation discussing project scope before final results were developed. This work is currently in progress.

5. Evaluation of the Cost, Benefits and Feasibility of Adopting Electric Vehicles in Singapore “This study aims to evaluate the economic costs, benefits and feasibility of adopting EVs in Singapore. The evaluation will include recommendations for policies regarding EVs, including whether or not to encourage the adoption of these vehicles. Through the test-bed, ESI will also advise on regulations governing the use of EVs such as creating standards for the charging of EVs, targeted density of charging stations in the market, etc.” This is a presentation discussing project scope before final results were developed. This work is currently in progress.

6. EV Task Force Chairs Government Industry This is a presentation discussing project scope before final results were developed. This work is currently in progress.

7. EV Task Force Year 2010 – 2012 Install 63 chargers, to be complete by end of 2011 Corporate fleet owners purchase EVs for trial and data collection Mitsubishi i-MiEV Renault Fluence Z.E. This is a presentation discussing project scope before final results were developed. This work is currently in progress.

8. Background on Singapore Tropical island with land area of 710km2 Heterogeneous population with 4 national languages: English, Chinese, Malay, and Tamil Modern and rapidly growing economy Export driven Refining of imported petroleum Financial center Logistics hub This is a presentation discussing project scope before final results were developed. This work is currently in progress.

9. Singapore Energy Production and Usage Population – 5M Electricity 80% natural gas 20% fuel oil Vehicle population – 584,000 Private vehicles: 19,600 km driven per year This is a presentation discussing project scope before final results were developed. This work is currently in progress.

10. Electric Vehicles Diversify energy feedstock used to fuel private transportation Cleaner sources of electricity can result in pollution reduction More than twice as efficient as internal combustion engines Battery technology (cost and range anxiety) remain challenges Vehicle ranges vary 90-160 km on full charge This is a presentation discussing project scope before final results were developed. This work is currently in progress.

11. Lifecycle Analysis We are investigating the implications of consumer costs exceeding societal costs. This is a presentation discussing project scope before final results were developed. This work is currently in progress.

12. Vehicles Compared This is a presentation discussing project scope before final results were developed. This work is currently in progress.

13. Externalities Negative consequence of combusting fuels to generate energy that are not internalized Result of poorly defined property rights Externalities considered for analysis Health impacts Material damage Productivity losses Reduction of aesthetic quality This is a presentation discussing project scope before final results were developed. This work is currently in progress.

14. Pollutants Local effect PM10 SO2 NOx Global effect (greenhouse gases) CO2 CH4 N2O This is a presentation discussing project scope before final results were developed. This work is currently in progress.

15. Vehicle Open Market Value The EV has the highest price, followed by the HEVs, and then the ICEs. This is a presentation discussing project scope before final results were developed. This work is currently in progress.

16. Upfront Costs Under the TIDES scheme, the i-MiEV has the lowest societal costs and second lowest consumer costs. Otherwise, the EV is the most expensive vehicle, followed by the HEVs and ICEs, respectively. This is a presentation discussing project scope before final results were developed. This work is currently in progress.

17. Fuel Costs The EV has the lowest fuelling costs. Among comparable vehicles, HEVs will have lower fuelling costs compared to an ICE. This is a presentation discussing project scope before final results were developed. This work is currently in progress.

18. Emissions The EV will likely result in the lowest PM10, NOx, and GHG emissions and may offer lower levels of these emissions than the Prius. It may result in the highest SO2 emissions, depending on when it is charged. This is a presentation discussing project scope before final results were developed. This work is currently in progress.

19. Pollutant Costs Because of the makeup of Singapore’s energy portfolio, the i-MiEV may have higher pollutant costs than its petrol variant and the Prius. This will depend on when the vehicle is charged. This is a presentation discussing project scope before final results were developed. This work is currently in progress.

20. Discussion Depending on the subsidy scheme, the upfront societal cost for the i-MiEV can be either the highest or lowest among the vehicles considered. The consumer cost is marginally higher than the lowest cost vehicle, its petrol variant Difficulty in projecting damage costs EV pollutant costs are a function of the fuel composition used to generate electricity This analysis is limited purely to cost and does not take into account other considerations This is a presentation discussing project scope before final results were developed. This work is currently in progress.

21. Discussion This is a presentation discussing project scope before final results were developed. This work is currently in progress.