A Fuel Efficiency Horizon for Grid-Free Automobiles John M. DeCicco Energy Institute / School of Natural Resources and Env...
Study Goals <ul><li>Adopt a problem-embracing perspective  </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Address not only what   can   be done to ...
Family Haulers Then and Now 1975 Mercury Marquis 2005 Ford Freestyle <ul><li>6.6L V8, 150 hp </li></ul><ul><li>Rudimentary...
Technologies Considered <ul><li>Evolutionary change, efficiency optimized  </li></ul><ul><li>Powertrains (examples):  </li...
Fuel economy and related trends New U.S. Light Duty Combined Fleet Source: U.S. EPA Fuel Economy Trends report 2010 On-roa...
P erformance      S ize      F uel   economy   I ndex   (PSFI) Source: An & DeCicco,  SAE Transactions, Journal of Engin...
Automobile efficiency is best viewed as a matter of  design priority <ul><li>Technological progress has been steady </li><...
Engine specific power trends Source: EPA Fuel Economy Trends report; selections from Ward's 10 Best Engines, 2006-10 53 kW/L
Advanced engines Now-breaking wave:  Turbocharged, direct- injection (DI) gasoline    GM 3.0L V-6 270 hp, 67 kW/L    Aud...
MIT simulation results Source: Kasseris & Heywood, SAE 2007-01-1605
Technology adoption rates <ul><ul><li>These are examples of relatively rapid technology diffusion </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><...
How rapidly might hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) see widespread adoption?
Quadratic fits to cost estimates <ul><ul><li>Adjustments: assume lower costs of mass reduction based on Lotus (2010) study...
Resulting cost curves New fleet average Retail Price Equivalent (RPE) estimates
Fleetwide costs and benefits Present value (per-vehicle average) for efficiency horizons trajectory Lifetime benefits were...
Efficiency horizon trajectory 1.83 kJ/m (52  MPG ) implied by 2025 
Relative Technology Benefits and Costs GASOLINE HYBRID H 2  FUEL CELL PLUG-IN HYBRID BATTERY ELECTRIC Projected cost impac...
Caution on &quot;revolutionary alternatives&quot; <ul><li>Basic characteristics of liquid hydrocarbons  The properties tha...
Vehicle standards in context <ul><li>Important to recall that vehicle efficiency is just one leg of the &quot;three legged...
Conclusions <ul><li>A horizon of 3x efficiency relative to recent U.S. new fleet levels can be reached, given:  </li></ul>...
Thank you! <ul><li>The report,  A Fuel Efficiency Horizon for U.S. Automobiles ,  can be downloaded from the University of...
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A Fuel Efficiency Horizon for U.S. Automobiles

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Presented at the SAE Government-Industry Meeting, Washington, DC, May 2011

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  • Updated using 2010 FE Trends report: http://www.epa.gov/otaq/cert/mpg/fetrends/420s10002-exec-sum-tables.xls (acc 24 Nov 2010) Note large single-year MPG jump by 6.7% 2008-09
  • Archive.jmd.PSFI.analyses. PSFI Analysis, 8 Dec 2006.xls [PSFI]
  • Source: historical data from EPA FE Trends report; leading engines selected from recent Ward&apos;s &amp;quot;10 Best Engines&amp;quot; award winners As of 2010, average specific power reached 53 kW/L Various Calcs WKG.xls [Eng]
  • GM DI turbo V6 as used in Cadillac SRX; Audi DI turbo I4 as used in Audi A4
  • Maximum adoption rates of 11%/yr for FWD in cars and 17%/yr for fuel injection across all LDVs
  • Reference consumption levels: CA (NESCCAF) large car 73 GJ/yr; MIT car 69 GJ/yr, light truck 105 GJ/yr
  • Tech &amp; Cost.xls [NPV]; report p. vii
  • Upcoming rule proposed range is 47 - 62 mpg by 2025, corresponding to 5.0 to 3.9 L/100 km (nominal) Horizon trajectory for 2025 is 52 mpg (nominal/CAFE) = 1.83 kJ/m (on-road) = 4.6 L/100 km (nominal)
  • Efficiency Horizons study Tech &amp; Cost WKG, normalized adjusted costs (21 Jan 2011)
  • &amp;quot;stone age&amp;quot; quote attributed to Sheik Ahmed Zaki Yamani (Saudi oil minister
  • A Fuel Efficiency Horizon for U.S. Automobiles

    1. 1. A Fuel Efficiency Horizon for Grid-Free Automobiles John M. DeCicco Energy Institute / School of Natural Resources and Environment, University of Michigan Government-Industry Meeting Washington, DC • January 26, 2011
    2. 2. Study Goals <ul><li>Adopt a problem-embracing perspective </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Address not only what can be done to improve vehicle efficiency, but also </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>What must be done to put the sector on a path that supports the attainment of challenging climate protection targets </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Analyze new fleet levels attainable through 2035 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Fundamentals-based analysis, 2005 baseline </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Use transparent assumptions building on previously published engineering simulation results </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Assume success in &quot;revolution by evolution&quot; </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Ambitious but non-disruptive technology change (estimates restricted to &quot;grid-free&quot; options) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>What are the implications of the resulting efficiency horizon for &quot;revolutionary&quot; alternatives? </li></ul></ul>
    3. 3. Family Haulers Then and Now 1975 Mercury Marquis 2005 Ford Freestyle <ul><li>6.6L V8, 150 hp </li></ul><ul><li>Rudimentary pollution control </li></ul><ul><li>Seat belts </li></ul><ul><li>11 MPG </li></ul><ul><li>3.0L V6, 203 hp </li></ul><ul><li>Ultra-low emissions </li></ul><ul><li>Sophisticated safety features throughout </li></ul><ul><li>24 MPG </li></ul>
    4. 4. Technologies Considered <ul><li>Evolutionary change, efficiency optimized </li></ul><ul><li>Powertrains (examples): </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Gasoline -- turbo DI, w & w/o lean operation; advanced valvetrains including camless </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Diesel -- advanced turbo DI, within NOx limits </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Hybrid -- non-grid-connected </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Transmission -- dual clutch auto direct, CVT </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Platforms: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Modest net mass reduction (≈20% on average over the full 30 year horizon, 2005-2035) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Ongoing aero, tire improvements </li></ul></ul>
    5. 5. Fuel economy and related trends New U.S. Light Duty Combined Fleet Source: U.S. EPA Fuel Economy Trends report 2010 On-road MPG Horsepower to Weight Ratio Test Weight 2.6%/yr 2004-10 4.4%/yr 1975-87
    6. 6. P erformance  S ize  F uel economy I ndex (PSFI) Source: An & DeCicco, SAE Transactions, Journal of Engines 116: 859-873 (2007)
    7. 7. Automobile efficiency is best viewed as a matter of design priority <ul><li>Technological progress has been steady </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Most technologies have multiple benefits </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Whether fuel efficiency is gained depends on: </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Design objectives of a given vehicle </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Overall mix of vehicles sold (e.g., car vs. truck) </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Until recently, most of the prior two decade's technology improvements were applied to enhance power, capacity and other amenities </li></ul></ul><ul><li>What path will auto efficiency follow going forward? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Net energy/GHG impact is a market outcome </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>It will depend on jointly expressed priorities of consumers, automakers and policymakers </li></ul></ul>
    8. 8. Engine specific power trends Source: EPA Fuel Economy Trends report; selections from Ward's 10 Best Engines, 2006-10 53 kW/L
    9. 9. Advanced engines Now-breaking wave: Turbocharged, direct- injection (DI) gasoline  GM 3.0L V-6 270 hp, 67 kW/L  Audi 2.0L I-4 211 hp, 79 kW/L
    10. 10. MIT simulation results Source: Kasseris & Heywood, SAE 2007-01-1605
    11. 11. Technology adoption rates <ul><ul><li>These are examples of relatively rapid technology diffusion </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Other technologies, such as multivalve engines, saw significantly slower rates of adoption historically </li></ul></ul>Historical data from EPA Fuel Economy Trends report: Front-wheel drive in new cars Fuel injection in new light vehicles
    12. 12. How rapidly might hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) see widespread adoption?
    13. 13. Quadratic fits to cost estimates <ul><ul><li>Adjustments: assume lower costs of mass reduction based on Lotus (2010) study, but phased in gradually for 20% mass savings at zero net cost by 2035. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Declining costs over time are modeled as rightward shift of quadratic curves. </li></ul></ul>Near-term estimates as used to support the California proposal, similar to those used for the MY 2011-16 CAFE rule Long-term estimates as used in the MIT &quot;On the Road in 2035&quot; study
    14. 14. Resulting cost curves New fleet average Retail Price Equivalent (RPE) estimates
    15. 15. Fleetwide costs and benefits Present value (per-vehicle average) for efficiency horizons trajectory Lifetime benefits were calculated assuming: 7% discount rate 10% rebound effect $2.50 /gal fuel (pre-tax) $0.18 /gal oil externality $22 /tonne CO 2 cost
    16. 16. Efficiency horizon trajectory 1.83 kJ/m (52 MPG ) implied by 2025 
    17. 17. Relative Technology Benefits and Costs GASOLINE HYBRID H 2 FUEL CELL PLUG-IN HYBRID BATTERY ELECTRIC Projected cost impacts and GHG reductions for efficiency- optimized midsize cars in 2035 relative to a 2005 baseline DIESEL TDI GASOLINE GASOLINE TDI An evolutionary path can carry the U.S. automobile fleet quite far with manageable costs for technology and minimal risks for customer acceptance. Baseline Vehicle 
    18. 18. Caution on &quot;revolutionary alternatives&quot; <ul><li>Basic characteristics of liquid hydrocarbons The properties that make them so valuable for transportation also make them easy themselves to transport, and therefore fungible, globally traded commodities </li></ul><ul><li>Consider </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Resource diversity need not entail fuel product diversity </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Low carbon need not mean no carbon </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>The road less hyped: creative chemical engineering plus carbon separation and sequestration </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Is the quest to &quot;get off fossil fuels&quot; but a fool's errand that wastes resources without solving real problems? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>&quot;The Stone Age didn't end for lack of stone …&quot; (Ahmed Zaki Yamani, Saudi oil minister 1962-86) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>The end of the Stone Age was not centrally planned! </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>That is not to say that public policy doesn't have a critical role, but rather that its goals must be carefully defined </li></ul></ul>
    19. 19. Vehicle standards in context <ul><li>Important to recall that vehicle efficiency is just one leg of the &quot;three legged stool&quot;: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Travel demand (VMT) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Vehicle consumption rate (inverse of MPG) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Characteristics of the fuel system (petroleum & carbon intensity) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Current energy & climate policies are incomplete, if not indeed imbalanced </li></ul><ul><li>Can we change the fuel by changing the vehicle? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Key fuel concerns going forward are systems issues, not reducible to fuel properties </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Automakers can address vehicle efficiency, but not emissions from fuel supply system (whether for liquids, electricity or hydrogen) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Innovation is wonderful, but subsidization is questionable </li></ul></ul>
    20. 20. Conclusions <ul><li>A horizon of 3x efficiency relative to recent U.S. new fleet levels can be reached, given: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Sufficient lead time (~2035; implied rate 3.7% per year) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Plus major and ongoing changes in market priorities </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Following such a trajectory implies a 52 mpg (157 g/mi) new LDV fleet by 2025, without EVs or PHEVs </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Efficiency improvement appears more cost effective than alternative fuel and vehicle (AFV*) options at present </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Nevertheless, improving vehicle efficiency is just one part of a sound energy-climate strategy for transportation </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>A complete strategy will also require measures to </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Motivate efficient transportation planning, land use and infrastructure investments </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Manage net GHG emissions in fuel supply </li></ul></ul></ul>*AFV refers to fuels or energy carriers other than liquid hydrocarbons
    21. 21. Thank you! <ul><li>The report, A Fuel Efficiency Horizon for U.S. Automobiles , can be downloaded from the University of Michigan Deep Blue archive at: http://hdl.handle.net/2027.42/78178 </li></ul><ul><li>For further information, contact: </li></ul>John M. DeCicco, Ph.D. Faculty Fellow • Michigan Memorial Phoenix Energy Institute (MMPEI) Senior Lecturer • School of Natural Resources and Environment (SNRE) University of Michigan, Ann Arbor email: DeCicco@umich.edu http://www.snre.umich.edu/profile/decicco http://www.energy.umich.edu/res/fac_10/fac_DeCiccoJ10.html

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