Forecasting the future
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This document discusses challenges in forecasting for the travel industry and lessons learned from forecasting research. It summarizes that: 1. Both statistical models and human judgment have been unable to fully capture future uncertainty and accurately predict black swan events. 2. Simple statistical models often predict the future better than more complex models, despite fitting past data less accurately. 3. Averaging predictions from multiple individuals generally improves forecasting accuracy over relying on expert judgment alone. Managing complexity through signal detection, contingency planning, and managing black swans is important.
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Is Decision-Based
Evidence Making
Necessarily Bad?
S U M M E R 2 0 1 0 V O L . 5 1 N O. 4
R E P R I N T N U M B E R 5 1 4 1 9
Peter M. Tingling and Michael J. Brydon
SUMMER 2010 MIT SLOAN MANAGEMENT REVIEW 71COURTESY OF HERMAN MILLER
Some decisions
can’t be made
based on evidence
at all. The facts are
too ambiguous —
such as the rejection
by focus groups of
the aesthetics of
Herman Miller’s
Aeron chair.
DECISION MAKING IS the essence of manage-
ment, which explains why so much attention
continues to be focused on how to do it better. In
recent years, much has been written about evidence-
based — or fact-based — decision making. The core
idea is that decisions supported by hard facts and
sound analysis are likely to be better than decisions
made on the basis of instinct, folklore or informal
anecdotal evidence. One need look no further than
the shelves of the local bookstore to see an unprece-
dented collection of well-written titles extolling the
virtues of data and analysis, such as Competing on
Analytics (Davenport and Harris), Moneyball (Lewis)
and Super Crunchers (Ayres). These books, like deci-
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prescriptions of management consultants, focus on
how to improve decision outcomes through improved
process and technique. Many organizations have
heeded the call and have invested heavily in data pro-
cessing infrastructure and analytic tools, based on the
assumption that better evidence-based decisions will
follow naturally from these investments. While this
focus on evidence is a welcome change from “thin slicing” or purely instinctive or
intuitive snap judgments, these prescriptions tend to downplay the more fundamental
questions: What is the relationship between evidence and the decision process that an
organization actually uses? Why is evidence collected in the first place?
Our research and consulting experience suggests that evidence is not as frequent an
Many managers think they’ve committed their organizations
to evidence-based decision making — but have instead, without
realizing it, committed to decision-based evidence making.
Is that all bad? What can be done to fix it?
BY PETER M. TINGLING AND MICHAEL J. BRYDON
Is Decision-Based
Evidence Making
Necessarily Bad?
THE LEADING
QUESTION
Managers
want ‘fact-
based’
decisions.
Are they
getting them?
FINDINGS
! Evidence is not as
frequent an input
to decisions as
suggested by the
business press.
! Not all decisions
use evidence in
the same way.
Evidence can be
used to make,
inform or sup-
port a decision.
! Managers need
to be aware
that evidence
is shaped by
subordinates
to meet perceived
expectations of
company leaders.
E S S AY
72 MIT SLOAN MANAGEMENT REVIEW SUMMER 2010 SLOANREVIEW.MIT.EDU
E S S AY
input to a decision process as suggested by the popu-
lar press. For example, we recently studied a major
North American financi.
Ob1 unit 3 chapter - 10 - perception, attribuions, emotions and emotional i...
Discussions on
Dr. S. GOKULA KRISHNAN, 2 Associate Professor @NSM
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Factors that influencing Perception
Person Perception: Making Judgment About Others
Attribution Theory
Common shortcuts in judging others
Individual Decision Making
Impression Management
Case Incident: Is It Okay to Cry at Work(p.128)
Emotions
Emotional Intelligence
Reference:
Stephen P Robbins, Timothy A Judge & NeharikaVohra, Organizational Behaviour, 15thed., p. 175-201 & 101-125
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Examples of Real Improvements
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CONTENTS
Reducing human error in capital decision-making
1
A look at the S&P 500 suggests just how dif-ficult it can be to consistently drive positive results. Take one measure, return on in-
vested capital (ROIC). In a Deloitte study, neither
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with ROIC.1 Regardless of industry, individual com-
panies can often have a difficult time maintaining
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sults, it may not be surprising that more than 60
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fident in their organization’s ability to optimally al-
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ancing competing priorities, diverse stakeholder
interests, and a complex variety of proposals that
can make capital allocation decisions even more dif-
ficult to execute in practice.
Why is this? On paper it seems practical enough
for everyone throughout the organization to be on
the same page. In an ideal world, a company estab-
lishes the goals and priorities; then, from senior
managers to frontline employees, everyone is ex-
pected to act in a manner that supports these man-
dates.
However, behavioral science, and possibly your
own experience, suggest it’s likely not always that
simple. Individuals at any level of an organization
may be overly optimistic about certain courses of
action, rely too much on specific pieces of informa-
tion (and people), or simply interpret the objective
through too narrow a lens (that may even run coun-
ter to other views on how to achieve these goals).
Within the behavioral science field, these are
referred to as cognitive biases and they exist in
many endeavors, not just capital planning. These
same biases can explain why we are too optimistic
about our retirement portfolios, can rely solely on
the opinions of experts in matters of health, and
narrowly frame our car buying decisions based on
a single attribute, such as fuel efficiency—ignoring
safety features, price, and aesthetic design. In the
language of the behavioral sciences, these translate
into the optimism bias, expert bias, and narrow
framing, respectively.
Though these biases, an ...
Capital bias reducing human error in capital decision making
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Is Decision-Based
Evidence Making
Necessarily Bad?
S U M M E R 2 0 1 0 V O L . 5 1 N O. 4
R E P R I N T N U M B E R 5 1 4 1 9
Peter M. Tingling and Michael J. Brydon
SUMMER 2010 MIT SLOAN MANAGEMENT REVIEW 71COURTESY OF HERMAN MILLER
Some decisions
can’t be made
based on evidence
at all. The facts are
too ambiguous —
such as the rejection
by focus groups of
the aesthetics of
Herman Miller’s
Aeron chair.
DECISION MAKING IS the essence of manage-
ment, which explains why so much attention
continues to be focused on how to do it better. In
recent years, much has been written about evidence-
based — or fact-based — decision making. The core
idea is that decisions supported by hard facts and
sound analysis are likely to be better than decisions
made on the basis of instinct, folklore or informal
anecdotal evidence. One need look no further than
the shelves of the local bookstore to see an unprece-
dented collection of well-written titles extolling the
virtues of data and analysis, such as Competing on
Analytics (Davenport and Harris), Moneyball (Lewis)
and Super Crunchers (Ayres). These books, like deci-
sion-making courses in business schools and the
prescriptions of management consultants, focus on
how to improve decision outcomes through improved
process and technique. Many organizations have
heeded the call and have invested heavily in data pro-
cessing infrastructure and analytic tools, based on the
assumption that better evidence-based decisions will
follow naturally from these investments. While this
focus on evidence is a welcome change from “thin slicing” or purely instinctive or
intuitive snap judgments, these prescriptions tend to downplay the more fundamental
questions: What is the relationship between evidence and the decision process that an
organization actually uses? Why is evidence collected in the first place?
Our research and consulting experience suggests that evidence is not as frequent an
Many managers think they’ve committed their organizations
to evidence-based decision making — but have instead, without
realizing it, committed to decision-based evidence making.
Is that all bad? What can be done to fix it?
BY PETER M. TINGLING AND MICHAEL J. BRYDON
Is Decision-Based
Evidence Making
Necessarily Bad?
THE LEADING
QUESTION
Managers
want ‘fact-
based’
decisions.
Are they
getting them?
FINDINGS
! Evidence is not as
frequent an input
to decisions as
suggested by the
business press.
! Not all decisions
use evidence in
the same way.
Evidence can be
used to make,
inform or sup-
port a decision.
! Managers need
to be aware
that evidence
is shaped by
subordinates
to meet perceived
expectations of
company leaders.
E S S AY
72 MIT SLOAN MANAGEMENT REVIEW SUMMER 2010 SLOANREVIEW.MIT.EDU
E S S AY
input to a decision process as suggested by the popu-
lar press. For example, we recently studied a major
North American financi.
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Person Perception: Making Judgment About Others
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Case Incident: Is It Okay to Cry at Work(p.128)
Emotions
Emotional Intelligence
Reference:
Stephen P Robbins, Timothy A Judge & NeharikaVohra, Organizational Behaviour, 15thed., p. 175-201 & 101-125
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Chapter 2
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Chapter 3
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Chapter 4
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Chapter 5
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Chapter 6
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- 5. Uncertainty is different
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- 15. Traditional segmentation doesn’t work
- 16. Managing complexity • Signal detection • Contingency planning • Managing black swans?
- 17. 5 Top Lessons from forecasting research 1. “Simple” models do not necessarily fit past data well but predict the future better than complex or sophisticated statistical models. 2. Both statistical models and human judgment have been unable to capture the full extent of future uncertainty.
- 18. 5 Top Lessons from forecasting research 3. Expert judgment is typically inferior to simple statistical models. 4. Forecasts made by experts are no more accurate than those of knowledgeable individuals. 5. Averaging the predictions of several individuals usually improves forecasting
- 19. Judgmental forecasting Conventional wisdom Empirical findings The amount of information does The more information we have, not improve the accuracy, the more accurate the decision instead it increases the confidence Monetary rewards and Human behavior is too complex punishments contribute to better to be motivated by monetary performance factors alone In many repetitive, routine Experience and /or expertise decisions, experience and/or improve accuracy of decisions expertise do not contribute to future-oriented decisions
- 20. Forecasting by experts
- 21. How to deal with