1) The document discusses forecasting and predictive digital marketing. It defines forecasting as using past observations to predict future events in digital business.
2) It discusses different forecasting timeframes (short, medium, long term), common issues with forecasting like lack of patterns or anomalies, and how forecasting differs from planning which describes what should happen rather than what will happen.
3) It provides an example application of forecasting digital marketing data using exploratory data analysis, data collection and processing, modeling and validation, and the Prophet forecasting model to generate forecasts.
Industrial Analytics and Predictive Maintenance 2017 - 2022Rising Media Ltd.
In this session we will present the results of two recent, international studies on the state of data analytics in industrial settings. You will get insights from an in-depth industry survey of 151 analytics professionals and decision-makers in industrial companies, providing a deep-dive into strategies, project types, cost structures and skill-demand in IoT-based analytics. In addition we will present a survey focusing on predictive analytics covering the market potential and expected development until 2022.
ML in GRC: Supporting Human Decision Making for Regulatory Adherence with Mac...BigML, Inc
This is a real-life Machine Learning use case about integrated risk.
Speakers: Thomas Rengersen, Product Owner of the Governance Risk and Compliance Tool for Rabobank, and Thomas Alderse Baas, Co-Founder and Director of The Bowmen Group.
*ML in GRC 2021: Virtual Conference.
Build an Ensemble classifier that can detect credit card fraudulent
transactions.Implemented a classifier by use of machine learning algorithms, such as
Decision Trees, Logistic Regression, Artificial Neural Networks and Gradient Boosting
Classifier.
valohai에서 발표한 2021, State of MLOps 2021 survey 자료를 요약하여 정리한 것입니다. 조직내에서 MLOps 와 관련하여 역할과 팀의 규모, 집중하는 영역, 현재 툴링화 하여 사용하고 있는 영역 등에 대한 100명의 응답자 내용을 정리한 것입니다.
Industrial Analytics and Predictive Maintenance 2017 - 2022Rising Media Ltd.
In this session we will present the results of two recent, international studies on the state of data analytics in industrial settings. You will get insights from an in-depth industry survey of 151 analytics professionals and decision-makers in industrial companies, providing a deep-dive into strategies, project types, cost structures and skill-demand in IoT-based analytics. In addition we will present a survey focusing on predictive analytics covering the market potential and expected development until 2022.
ML in GRC: Supporting Human Decision Making for Regulatory Adherence with Mac...BigML, Inc
This is a real-life Machine Learning use case about integrated risk.
Speakers: Thomas Rengersen, Product Owner of the Governance Risk and Compliance Tool for Rabobank, and Thomas Alderse Baas, Co-Founder and Director of The Bowmen Group.
*ML in GRC 2021: Virtual Conference.
Build an Ensemble classifier that can detect credit card fraudulent
transactions.Implemented a classifier by use of machine learning algorithms, such as
Decision Trees, Logistic Regression, Artificial Neural Networks and Gradient Boosting
Classifier.
valohai에서 발표한 2021, State of MLOps 2021 survey 자료를 요약하여 정리한 것입니다. 조직내에서 MLOps 와 관련하여 역할과 팀의 규모, 집중하는 영역, 현재 툴링화 하여 사용하고 있는 영역 등에 대한 100명의 응답자 내용을 정리한 것입니다.
Cognitive Automation: What does success look like? IBM
We hear about cognitive automation. But what does success look like? Meet Cognitive Assist, our virtual agent. These virtual agents, powered by Watson, have ingested a vast corpus of knowledge about the applications IBM support, so they can provide the guidance an experienced coach could give – consistently and in real time. Read more about how Cognitive Assist can help you.
An introduction to Optimization for Malaysian insurance audience held on 20th April 2017 at the Malaysian Insurance Institute (MII), Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.
More information here: https://www.theoptimizationexpert.com
BigMLSchool: ML Platforms and AutoML in the EnterpriseBigML, Inc
An introductory session on the current situation of Machine Learning, the importance of ML platforms and AutoML, and why ML needs to be properly taught at schools and universities.
The lecturer is Ed Fernández, Board Director at BigML and Arowana International, a Private Equity firm, Faculty at Northeastern University (the Silicon Valley campus), lecturer at Headspring Corporate Learning (the Joint Venture of Financial Times and IE Business School), and mentor at Berkeley Sutardja Center for Entrepreneurship and Technology.
*Machine Learning School for Business Schools 2021: Virtual Conference.
Data Science Salon: Enabling self-service predictive analytics at BidtellectFormulatedby
Having previously worked at both Millennial Media and AOL, Michael Conway brought his expertise to Bidtellect tasked with transforming the business to a self-service SaaS-based content distribution platform, enabling the company to grow 10-fold.
Next DSS MIA Event - https://datascience.salon/miami/
During the 30-minute presentation, Michael will provide background information about Bidtellect and how data is an integral component of the business managing their premium native inventory across their supply ecosystem with over 5 billion native auctions per day. As Bidtellect embraces big data, Michael will share the challenges and successes he and his team have experienced along the way. In addition, Steve Sarsfield, Vertica Senior Product Marketing Manager, will be available to discuss how specific technologies (SQL, Python, R and embedded algorithms) can be combined in an MPP environment to achieve big data analytics success.
Data Science is a new technology, which is basically used for apply critical analysis. It utilizes the potential and scope of Hadoop. It also helps fully in R programming and machine learning implementation. It is a blend of multiple technologies like data interface, algorithm. It helps to solve an analytical problem. Data Science provides a clear understanding of work in big data, analytical tool R. Also, it provide the analyses of big data. It gives a clear idea of understanding of data, transforming the data. Also, it helps in visualizing the data, exploratory analysis, understanding of null value. It used to impute the value with the help of different rules and logic.
Data Science Salon: Building smart AI: How Deep Learning Can Get You Into Dee...Formulatedby
Presented by Michael Housman Chief Data Scientist at RapportBoost.AI
Next DSS NYC Event 👉 https://datascience.salon/newyork/
Next DSS LA Event 👉 https://datascience.salon/la/
Recent advances in deep learning have fueled tremendous excitement about the potential for artificial intelligence to solve countless problems. But there are some perils and pitfalls endemic to these new techniques, particularly because they ignore two essential components of the scientific method: (1) understanding the how; and (2) explaining the why. Dr. Michael Housman offers up a two specific examples from his own career as a data scientist to show how a naive application of deep learning algorithms can lead data scientists to the wrong conclusion and offers up some guidance for avoiding these mistakes.
Course - Machine Learning Basics with R Persontyle
This course is meant to be a fast-paced, hands-on introduction to Machine Learning using R. The course will be focusing mainly on basics of Machine Learning methods and practical implementation of these methods to solve real-world problems. This course aims to develop basic understanding of supervised learning methods, through the use of the R programming platform. It describes the different types of learning and the two main categories of their applications: Classification and Regression.
For corporate bookings or to organize on-site training email hello@persontyle.comor call now +44 (0)20 3239 3141
www.persontyle.com
A dual value grid for the value of data science projects. Primers about digital transformation in the wild, followed by data science process model and collaborative analytics tools to improve models
In Machine Learning in Credit Risk Modeling, we provide an explanation of the main Machine Learning models used in James so that Efficiency does not come at the expense of Explainability.
(Contact Yvan De Munck for more info or to receive other and future updates on the subject @yvandemunck or yvan@james.finance)
Data Science Salon: Adopting Machine Learning to Drive Revenue and Market ShareFormulatedby
The race is on to gain strategic and proprietary insights into changes in customer preferences before your competitors. This workshop will cover how and why machine learning is the tool for marketers to drive revenue and increase market share. The adoption of machine learning does not happen overnight. We will discuss the Five Es of machine learning maturity – Educating, Exploring, Engaging, Executing and Expanding. Hear real-world examples of using machine learning to accelerate revenue, identify new customers and introduce new products based on machine learning capabilities.
Next DSS MIA Event - https://datascience.salon/miami/
Decision Intelligence: a new discipline emergesLorien Pratt
Where will the value be in AI when the hype is gone? Decision Intelligence is what's next: it is to AI as software engineering was to coding: a bridge from important problems to AI solutions. But also much more: integrating complex systems analysis, agent-based modeling, and many other discplines, and forming the seeds of a Solutions Renaissance, where people work together with smart machines to solve the hardest problems faced by humanity.
Presentation given by Richard Corderoy from the Oakland Group on 29 July 2020.
Link to the news story:
https://www.apm.org.uk/news/cutting-through-the-hype-how-to-use-advanced-analytics-to-do-practical-things-today-webinar/
Link to YouTube recording: https://youtu.be/OIsvCrFR5Uw
Methods of Forecasting for Capacity ManagementPrecisely
Forecasting is the process of making statements about events in the future. Events related to capacity management are typically things like the state of resource consumption, service levels, and computing environment changes at future points in time. Making statements or predictions about these future events requires analysis of information to determine a future state. Knowing what information is needed to make accurate forecasts is a critical step for any analysis.
Forecasts are made to answer questions. Understanding the questions, and things that affect answers to those questions, is the first step to creating an accurate forecast. Required accuracy of a forecast should determine which methods are used to create it. Assumptions can be made to limit the amount of data and time required for creating forecasts. Validating forecast accuracy, after events happen, is an important part of continually improving future forecasts, and building credibility. This webinar describes the important task of forecasting as it relates to capacity management.
This presentation covers the following topics:
• Why do we forecast?
• Forecasting scenarios
• Forecasting Techniques
• Forecasting and Virtualization
• Summary
Cognitive Automation: What does success look like? IBM
We hear about cognitive automation. But what does success look like? Meet Cognitive Assist, our virtual agent. These virtual agents, powered by Watson, have ingested a vast corpus of knowledge about the applications IBM support, so they can provide the guidance an experienced coach could give – consistently and in real time. Read more about how Cognitive Assist can help you.
An introduction to Optimization for Malaysian insurance audience held on 20th April 2017 at the Malaysian Insurance Institute (MII), Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.
More information here: https://www.theoptimizationexpert.com
BigMLSchool: ML Platforms and AutoML in the EnterpriseBigML, Inc
An introductory session on the current situation of Machine Learning, the importance of ML platforms and AutoML, and why ML needs to be properly taught at schools and universities.
The lecturer is Ed Fernández, Board Director at BigML and Arowana International, a Private Equity firm, Faculty at Northeastern University (the Silicon Valley campus), lecturer at Headspring Corporate Learning (the Joint Venture of Financial Times and IE Business School), and mentor at Berkeley Sutardja Center for Entrepreneurship and Technology.
*Machine Learning School for Business Schools 2021: Virtual Conference.
Data Science Salon: Enabling self-service predictive analytics at BidtellectFormulatedby
Having previously worked at both Millennial Media and AOL, Michael Conway brought his expertise to Bidtellect tasked with transforming the business to a self-service SaaS-based content distribution platform, enabling the company to grow 10-fold.
Next DSS MIA Event - https://datascience.salon/miami/
During the 30-minute presentation, Michael will provide background information about Bidtellect and how data is an integral component of the business managing their premium native inventory across their supply ecosystem with over 5 billion native auctions per day. As Bidtellect embraces big data, Michael will share the challenges and successes he and his team have experienced along the way. In addition, Steve Sarsfield, Vertica Senior Product Marketing Manager, will be available to discuss how specific technologies (SQL, Python, R and embedded algorithms) can be combined in an MPP environment to achieve big data analytics success.
Data Science is a new technology, which is basically used for apply critical analysis. It utilizes the potential and scope of Hadoop. It also helps fully in R programming and machine learning implementation. It is a blend of multiple technologies like data interface, algorithm. It helps to solve an analytical problem. Data Science provides a clear understanding of work in big data, analytical tool R. Also, it provide the analyses of big data. It gives a clear idea of understanding of data, transforming the data. Also, it helps in visualizing the data, exploratory analysis, understanding of null value. It used to impute the value with the help of different rules and logic.
Data Science Salon: Building smart AI: How Deep Learning Can Get You Into Dee...Formulatedby
Presented by Michael Housman Chief Data Scientist at RapportBoost.AI
Next DSS NYC Event 👉 https://datascience.salon/newyork/
Next DSS LA Event 👉 https://datascience.salon/la/
Recent advances in deep learning have fueled tremendous excitement about the potential for artificial intelligence to solve countless problems. But there are some perils and pitfalls endemic to these new techniques, particularly because they ignore two essential components of the scientific method: (1) understanding the how; and (2) explaining the why. Dr. Michael Housman offers up a two specific examples from his own career as a data scientist to show how a naive application of deep learning algorithms can lead data scientists to the wrong conclusion and offers up some guidance for avoiding these mistakes.
Course - Machine Learning Basics with R Persontyle
This course is meant to be a fast-paced, hands-on introduction to Machine Learning using R. The course will be focusing mainly on basics of Machine Learning methods and practical implementation of these methods to solve real-world problems. This course aims to develop basic understanding of supervised learning methods, through the use of the R programming platform. It describes the different types of learning and the two main categories of their applications: Classification and Regression.
For corporate bookings or to organize on-site training email hello@persontyle.comor call now +44 (0)20 3239 3141
www.persontyle.com
A dual value grid for the value of data science projects. Primers about digital transformation in the wild, followed by data science process model and collaborative analytics tools to improve models
In Machine Learning in Credit Risk Modeling, we provide an explanation of the main Machine Learning models used in James so that Efficiency does not come at the expense of Explainability.
(Contact Yvan De Munck for more info or to receive other and future updates on the subject @yvandemunck or yvan@james.finance)
Data Science Salon: Adopting Machine Learning to Drive Revenue and Market ShareFormulatedby
The race is on to gain strategic and proprietary insights into changes in customer preferences before your competitors. This workshop will cover how and why machine learning is the tool for marketers to drive revenue and increase market share. The adoption of machine learning does not happen overnight. We will discuss the Five Es of machine learning maturity – Educating, Exploring, Engaging, Executing and Expanding. Hear real-world examples of using machine learning to accelerate revenue, identify new customers and introduce new products based on machine learning capabilities.
Next DSS MIA Event - https://datascience.salon/miami/
Decision Intelligence: a new discipline emergesLorien Pratt
Where will the value be in AI when the hype is gone? Decision Intelligence is what's next: it is to AI as software engineering was to coding: a bridge from important problems to AI solutions. But also much more: integrating complex systems analysis, agent-based modeling, and many other discplines, and forming the seeds of a Solutions Renaissance, where people work together with smart machines to solve the hardest problems faced by humanity.
Presentation given by Richard Corderoy from the Oakland Group on 29 July 2020.
Link to the news story:
https://www.apm.org.uk/news/cutting-through-the-hype-how-to-use-advanced-analytics-to-do-practical-things-today-webinar/
Link to YouTube recording: https://youtu.be/OIsvCrFR5Uw
Methods of Forecasting for Capacity ManagementPrecisely
Forecasting is the process of making statements about events in the future. Events related to capacity management are typically things like the state of resource consumption, service levels, and computing environment changes at future points in time. Making statements or predictions about these future events requires analysis of information to determine a future state. Knowing what information is needed to make accurate forecasts is a critical step for any analysis.
Forecasts are made to answer questions. Understanding the questions, and things that affect answers to those questions, is the first step to creating an accurate forecast. Required accuracy of a forecast should determine which methods are used to create it. Assumptions can be made to limit the amount of data and time required for creating forecasts. Validating forecast accuracy, after events happen, is an important part of continually improving future forecasts, and building credibility. This webinar describes the important task of forecasting as it relates to capacity management.
This presentation covers the following topics:
• Why do we forecast?
• Forecasting scenarios
• Forecasting Techniques
• Forecasting and Virtualization
• Summary
Better Living Through Analytics - Strategies for Data DecisionsProduct School
Data is king! Get ready to understand how a successful analytics team can empower managers from product, marketing, and other areas to make effective, data-driven decisions.
Louis Cialdella, a data scientist at ZipRecruiter, shared some case studies and successful strategies that he has used at ZipRecruiter as well as previous experiences. The purpose of this data talk was to enlighten people on how to make sure that analysts can successfully partner with other departments and get them the information they need to do great things.
Better Living Through Analytics - Louis Cialdella Product SchoolLouis Cialdella
What does a successful partnership between product and analytics teams look like? What can analysts do to ensure a successful partnership with other teams? Some strategies and tips from my work at ZipRecruiter.
What is Forecasting?
Forecasting is a technique of predicting the future based on the results of previous data. It involves a
detailed analysis of past and present trends or events to predict future events. It uses statistical tools and
techniques. Therefore, it is also called Statistical analysis. In other words, we can say that forecasting acts
as a planning tool that helps enterprises to get ready for the uncertainty that can occur in the future.
Forecasting begins with management's experience and knowledge sharing. To obtain the most numerous
advantages from forecasts, organizations must know the different forecasting methods' more subtle
details. Also, understand what an appropriate forecasting method type can and cannot do, and realize
what forecast type is best suited to a specific need. Let's list down some significant benefits of forecasting:
• Better utilization of resources
• Formulating business plans
• Enhance the quality of management
• Helps in establishing a new business model
• Helps in making the best managerial decisions
A set of observations taken at a particular period of time. For example, having a set of login details at
regular interval of time of each user can be categorized as a time series. Click to explore about, Anomaly
Detection with Time Series Forecasting
What is Prediction?
Prediction is using the data to compute the Outcome of the unseen data.
How does Prediction work?
Firstly, the daily data is fetched from the market once at a time in a day and update it into the database.
Now, the prediction cycle along with learning developed with the use of newly combined data. Historical
data collected and the learning and prediction cycle developed to generate the results. The prediction
results obtained in the form of the various set of periods such as two days, four days, 14 days and so on.
Difference between Prediction and Forecasting
Prediction is the process of estimating the outcomes of unseen data. Forecasting is a sub-discipline of
prediction in which we use time-series data to make forecasts about the future. As a result, the only
distinction between prediction and forecasting is that we consider the temporal dimension. Confusing?
So do we forecast the weather or predict the weather? Consider this, What are the chances that it will
continue to rain in five minutes if it is already raining? Since it is raining right now, regardless of any other
factors that affect the weather (such as air pressure and temperature), the chances of it raining again in
five minutes are high. Right?vThe temporal dimension is whether it is raining right now or not? Without
that forecasting the next 5 mins wouldn't make much sense.
Time-Series refers to data recording at regular intervals of time. Click to explore about, Time Series
Forecasting Analysis
Why Forecasting is important?
Prediction of labor, material and other resources are highly crucial for operating. If the services are
Predicting better, then balanced
Visuals present better and quicker insights when forecasting sales. At a glance business strategies can be planned - time periods, geographic locations, pick variables that can highlight what works or doesn't, where it scores or doesn't, join two or more variables that work in specific geographical locations or don't, etc. All this put together makes data virtualization a very nifty tool to project what can make or break your predictions for sales!
Data science in demand planning - when the machine is not enoughTristan Wiggill
A presentation by Calven van der Byl BCom Economics and Statistics, BCom Honours Mathematical Statistics, Masters Mathematical Statistics, Inventory Optimization Demand Planning Manager, DSV, South Africa.
Delivered during SAPICS 2016, a leading event for supply chain professionals, held in Sun City, South Africa.
Demand Planning is a complex, yet often de-emphasized function in the supply chain planning function. The demand planning function is often characterized by an over-reliance on off the shelf software as well as a great deal of manual intervention. This presentation will outline the current developments and perspective in big data analytics and how they can be leveraged with the demand planning function to improve forecasting agility and efficiency. A simulation study will be presented in order to illustrate these principles in practice.
This session will overview how a data scientist performs in an organization. Its roles and responsibility and how it helps the organization achieve organizational goals. We will look into the complete life cycle of data scientists, starting from problem identification to finding the solution.
This session will overview how a data scientist performs in an organization. Its roles and responsibility and how it helps the organization achieve organizational goals. We will look into the complete life cycle of data scientists, starting from problem identification to finding the solution.
Salesforce Forecasting: Evolution, Implementation and Best Practices, Christi...CzechDreamin
Salesforce Forecasting is evolving for tomorrow, evolving for the future, and evolving for the next generation of sales leadership.
This often underutilized feature has undergone a transformation over the past few releases to reveal a slick, modern interface and a host of new functionality, propelling forecasting into the spotlight.
Join this session to discover the latest enhancements, considerations and implementation best practices.
Similar to Forecasting and Predictive Digital Marketing. Daniele Donzella, Gianluigi Spagnuolo - Altura Labs (20)
As Europe's leading economic powerhouse and the fourth-largest hashtag#economy globally, Germany stands at the forefront of innovation and industrial might. Renowned for its precision engineering and high-tech sectors, Germany's economic structure is heavily supported by a robust service industry, accounting for approximately 68% of its GDP. This economic clout and strategic geopolitical stance position Germany as a focal point in the global cyber threat landscape.
In the face of escalating global tensions, particularly those emanating from geopolitical disputes with nations like hashtag#Russia and hashtag#China, hashtag#Germany has witnessed a significant uptick in targeted cyber operations. Our analysis indicates a marked increase in hashtag#cyberattack sophistication aimed at critical infrastructure and key industrial sectors. These attacks range from ransomware campaigns to hashtag#AdvancedPersistentThreats (hashtag#APTs), threatening national security and business integrity.
🔑 Key findings include:
🔍 Increased frequency and complexity of cyber threats.
🔍 Escalation of state-sponsored and criminally motivated cyber operations.
🔍 Active dark web exchanges of malicious tools and tactics.
Our comprehensive report delves into these challenges, using a blend of open-source and proprietary data collection techniques. By monitoring activity on critical networks and analyzing attack patterns, our team provides a detailed overview of the threats facing German entities.
This report aims to equip stakeholders across public and private sectors with the knowledge to enhance their defensive strategies, reduce exposure to cyber risks, and reinforce Germany's resilience against cyber threats.
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Empowering the Data Analytics Ecosystem: A Laser Focus on Value
The data analytics ecosystem thrives when every component functions at its peak, unlocking the true potential of data. Here's a laser focus on key areas for an empowered ecosystem:
1. Democratize Access, Not Data:
Granular Access Controls: Provide users with self-service tools tailored to their specific needs, preventing data overload and misuse.
Data Catalogs: Implement robust data catalogs for easy discovery and understanding of available data sources.
2. Foster Collaboration with Clear Roles:
Data Mesh Architecture: Break down data silos by creating a distributed data ownership model with clear ownership and responsibilities.
Collaborative Workspaces: Utilize interactive platforms where data scientists, analysts, and domain experts can work seamlessly together.
3. Leverage Advanced Analytics Strategically:
AI-powered Automation: Automate repetitive tasks like data cleaning and feature engineering, freeing up data talent for higher-level analysis.
Right-Tool Selection: Strategically choose the most effective advanced analytics techniques (e.g., AI, ML) based on specific business problems.
4. Prioritize Data Quality with Automation:
Automated Data Validation: Implement automated data quality checks to identify and rectify errors at the source, minimizing downstream issues.
Data Lineage Tracking: Track the flow of data throughout the ecosystem, ensuring transparency and facilitating root cause analysis for errors.
5. Cultivate a Data-Driven Mindset:
Metrics-Driven Performance Management: Align KPIs and performance metrics with data-driven insights to ensure actionable decision making.
Data Storytelling Workshops: Equip stakeholders with the skills to translate complex data findings into compelling narratives that drive action.
Benefits of a Precise Ecosystem:
Sharpened Focus: Precise access and clear roles ensure everyone works with the most relevant data, maximizing efficiency.
Actionable Insights: Strategic analytics and automated quality checks lead to more reliable and actionable data insights.
Continuous Improvement: Data-driven performance management fosters a culture of learning and continuous improvement.
Sustainable Growth: Empowered by data, organizations can make informed decisions to drive sustainable growth and innovation.
By focusing on these precise actions, organizations can create an empowered data analytics ecosystem that delivers real value by driving data-driven decisions and maximizing the return on their data investment.
Adjusting primitives for graph : SHORT REPORT / NOTESSubhajit Sahu
Graph algorithms, like PageRank Compressed Sparse Row (CSR) is an adjacency-list based graph representation that is
Multiply with different modes (map)
1. Performance of sequential execution based vs OpenMP based vector multiply.
2. Comparing various launch configs for CUDA based vector multiply.
Sum with different storage types (reduce)
1. Performance of vector element sum using float vs bfloat16 as the storage type.
Sum with different modes (reduce)
1. Performance of sequential execution based vs OpenMP based vector element sum.
2. Performance of memcpy vs in-place based CUDA based vector element sum.
3. Comparing various launch configs for CUDA based vector element sum (memcpy).
4. Comparing various launch configs for CUDA based vector element sum (in-place).
Sum with in-place strategies of CUDA mode (reduce)
1. Comparing various launch configs for CUDA based vector element sum (in-place).
Levelwise PageRank with Loop-Based Dead End Handling Strategy : SHORT REPORT ...Subhajit Sahu
Abstract — Levelwise PageRank is an alternative method of PageRank computation which decomposes the input graph into a directed acyclic block-graph of strongly connected components, and processes them in topological order, one level at a time. This enables calculation for ranks in a distributed fashion without per-iteration communication, unlike the standard method where all vertices are processed in each iteration. It however comes with a precondition of the absence of dead ends in the input graph. Here, the native non-distributed performance of Levelwise PageRank was compared against Monolithic PageRank on a CPU as well as a GPU. To ensure a fair comparison, Monolithic PageRank was also performed on a graph where vertices were split by components. Results indicate that Levelwise PageRank is about as fast as Monolithic PageRank on the CPU, but quite a bit slower on the GPU. Slowdown on the GPU is likely caused by a large submission of small workloads, and expected to be non-issue when the computation is performed on massive graphs.
4. A definition
A forecast report is a key factor for predicting future events in
digital business, based on past observations.
A forecast helps to plan resources, set goals and KPI and
identify outlier.
Identify Factors,
Relations and
Problem Definition
Data Collection Data Analysis Model Selection Model Validation
Forecasting Model
Deployment
Monitoring
Forecasting Model
Performance
4
6. Known issues
When we are about to create a forecast, we can meet different problems:
● no patterns present in the data: we do not always have data with
strong patterns
● highly uncertain future: if unpredictable elements will occur in the
future
● anomalies in the dates: for example, months that do not have the
same number of days, or the variations regarding holidays time, etc
This points out that predicting future events is not a trivial operation. For
this purpose, there are several libraries for different languages that use
different algorithms and approaches.
6
7. Planning vs Forecasting
Forecasting is commonly confused with planning, that tells us
how the information should be and not how it actually will be.
SHOULD / WILL
7
8. When to do it
When the patterns are clear and obvious, there is no need for
forecasting. Predictions can be easily made on the time series.
Forecasting is relevant when patterns, even if they exist, are
not intuitive and where we can not make predictions based
only on experience.
8
10. Problem definition
The aim is to capture the relationships between advertising,
different promotional strategies and total number of sales, to be
able to plan resources and goals.
Problem Definition Data Collection Data Analysis Model Selection Model Validation
Forecasting Model
Deployment
Monitoring
Forecasting Model
Performance
10
12. Data Collection: a premise
Since we only have limited data, referring to a little bit more
than a year, we can not accurately make a forecast or
modelling the data only on a long term.
But it is possible to make predictions by evaluating shorter
periods.
Problem Definition Data Collection Data Analysis Model Selection Model Validation
Forecasting Model
Deployment
Monitoring
Forecasting Model
Performance
12
13. Exploratory Data Analysis
From an exploratory data analysis (EDA), being a time series reflecting users’
behavior, it is clear that:
● there are several periodic events both annual and weekly
● there are some outliers
● data are affected by the launch of products and advertising campaigns
Problem Definition Data Collection Data Analysis Model Selection Model Validation
Forecasting Model
Deployment
Monitoring
Forecasting Model
Performance
13
14. Exploratory Data Analysis
From an exploratory data analysis (EDA), being a time series reflecting users’
behavior, it is clear that:
● some data is missing or incomplete due to:
○ tracking malfunctions
○ incorrect implementation of the Garante’s provisions regarding cookies
○ implementation of the GDPR
Problem Definition Data Collection Data Analysis Model Selection Model Validation
Forecasting Model
Deployment
Monitoring
Forecasting Model
Performance
14
15. DATA COLLECT &
PROCESSING
Data: Google Analytics
Google DoubleClick
EXPLORATORY DATA ANALYSIS
Data analysis to summarize their
main characteristics
FORECAST REPORT
Forecasting Model
Deployment
MODELING
Creation of a model based
on EDA
FORECAST EVALUATION
Model selection and
validation
TROUBLESHOOTING
Possible errors and problems
highlighted by the validation
15
16. DATA COLLECT &
PROCESSING
Data: Google Analytics
Google DoubleClick
EXPLORATORY DATA ANALYSIS
Data analysis to summarize their
main characteristics
FORECAST REPORT
Forecasting Model
Deployment
1. MODELING
Creation of a model based
on EDA
2. FORECAST EVALUATION
Model selection and
validation
3. TROUBLESHOOTING
Possible errors and problems
highlighted by the validation
1. creation of a model based
on a human interpretation
of parameters (EDA)
2. creation and validation of
forecasting based on the
newly created model and
with a baseline created
from historical data
3. if this forecasting is not
good enough, the model is
made more compliant and
the process starts again
from step 2
16
17. 17
Google Analytics 360
Google DoubleClick
Teradata CRM
Data
Quantitative &
Additive Regression
Model
Type & Model
Marketing
Application Area
3 Months
Forecast Horizon
Monthly
Forecast Interval
18. Facebook Prophet
“Prophet is a procedure for
forecasting time series data. It is
based on an additive model
where non-linear trends are fit
with yearly and weekly
seasonality, plus holidays.
Prophet is robust to missing data,
shifts in the trend, and large
outliers.”
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● Open source
● Easy and fast
● It is possible to alter the model
to apply your experience
and/or external data
● It creates reliable results
● Available for Python
19. Prophet model
The model that underlies
Prophet consists of three
components:
● trends
● seasonal effects
● holiday/special events
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Compared to classic ARMA/ARIMA
models, the advantages are:
● better flexibility, it is possible to
easily adapt irregular data
● we can directly evaluate the
contribution of each
component and handle it
y(t) = g(t) + s(t) + h(t) + ϵt
20. Prophet in the application
Prophet allowed us to intervene at several points:
● dates of the products’ launch, of the marketing strategy
change, and of the advertising campaigns have been
specified;
● dates of the holidays and their weight have been specified,
as for the seasonality;
● furthermore, various parameters can be specified: for
example, how the data on seasonality will influence
forecasting in the future.
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22. Conclusions
In addition to forecasting, which
predicts sales volumes, an analysis
that tells us the reasons for such
behavior should also be performed.
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23. References
● Facebook Prophet https://github.com/facebook/prophet
● Exploratory Data Analysis
https://www.itl.nist.gov/div898/handbook/eda/eda.htm
● Google Analytics https://analytics.google.com
● Google DoubleClick
https://www.doubleclickbygoogle.com
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