Decision Intelligence: a new discipline emerges
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This document discusses decision intelligence and how technology can help solve complex business problems through better decision making. It provides examples of different technologies that can be used for decision intelligence like predictive analytics, agent-based models, and natural language processing. The document emphasizes that decision intelligence aims to understand what data, expertise, and other assets are relevant to make decisions that help achieve desired outcomes. It also shares perspectives from industry experts on the importance of decision intelligence in today's complex world.
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Decision Intelligence: a new discipline emerges
- 1. AI System Dynamics Operations Research Big Data Predictive Analytics Complexity Computational Neuroscience Statistical Analysis Agent based models Simulation Game Throey Design Thinking Copyright © 2018 Quantallia LLC 1) Explosion of tech… 3) This is why we are here today: to crystallize technology into solutions …we are (6) just at the beginning of the journey Lots of complex business problems Decision Intelligence … (5) and decisions are the unifying principle Human Computer Interaction *Sustainable Development Goals are from the UN 2030 Agenda
- 2. In 2009, we asked: “If technology could solve just one problem for you that it has never solved before, what would it be?”
- 3. THE DECISION ARCHETYPE Decision Lever Outcome Outcome Outcome External Factors Decision Lever Intermediates External Factors Externals Intermediates Intermediates Goal Goal Goal Each dependency may require various kinds of tech
- 8. How much should we invest in clean, energy-efficient manufacturing equipment, given that we have to pay a carbon tax?
- 9. “WHY?” Decision Lever Outcome Outcome Outcome External Factors Decision Lever Intermediates External Factors Externals Intermediates Intermediates Goal Goal Goal
- 10. “HOW?” Decision Lever Outcome Outcome Outcome External Factors Decision Lever Intermediates External Factors Externals Intermediates Intermediates Goal Goal Goal
- 12. Traditional View What will be the outcome? What decisions can we make? Data, Analytics, Big Data, Reports, Predictive Analytics, Spreadsheets
- 13. Decision Intelligence view What data, analytics, reports, human expertise, and other assets are relevant? What outcomes do we need or want to reach ? What decisions will get us there?
- 14. Source: SAP Leon
- 16. Source: Raytheon
- 17. Source: The Millenium Project
- 18. Source: The Millenium Project
- 23. Source: SAP Leo “Decision Intelligence is on the SAP roadmap.”
- 26. Data-led Solutions for Managing Disaster Risk Capacity, Emergency, and Post-Emergency Management and Preparedness (CEP MAP)
- 30. “What is critical in today’s complex world is the ability to see over the horizon and around corners to understand the impact of today’s decisions on all of the desired outcomes.” KarlWhitelock Senior Analyst Stratecast Partners (a division of Frost & Sullivan)
- 32. 32
- 33. 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Predictive analytics Documents (e.g. Word) Human expertise for cause-and-effect links Influence diagrams Behavioral economics Bayesian networks Agent-based models Natural Language Processing (NLP) Productivity improvement in project Non-ML Artificial IntelligenceSimulation What of the following Decision Intelligence (/ AI in decision making) technologies do you use or offer? (check all that apply) Vendors N=23
- 34. 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Quantitative decision analysis Structuring and mapping decisions Qualitative decision analysis Forecasting Designing fully automated decisions Overcoming cognitive biases Human decision making / cognitive science Unintended consequence analysis Sensemaking Human decision making / neuroscience Cognitive Function Analysis What of the following Decision Intelligence best practices do you use or offer? Vendors Users N=23
- 37. AI System Dynamics Operations Research Big Data Predictive Analytics Complexity Computational Neuroscience Statistical Analysis Agent based models Simulation Game Throey Design Thinking *Sustainable Development Goals are from the UN 2030 Agenda 1) Explosion of tech… …we are (6) just at the beginning of the journey Lots of complex business problems Decision Intelligence … (5) and decisions are the unifying principle Human Computer Interaction 3) This is why we are here today: to crystallize technology into solutions Lorien Pratt Lorien.pratt@quantellia.com www.lorienpratt.com Copyright © 2018 Quantellia LLC. All rights reserved.
Editor's Notes
- You may not realize it, but today is an important moment in history . My goal for the next few minutes is to explain why, and to help you to understand how our hosts at prowler, as well as the other speakers you’ll hear from today, are crystallizing a movement that will have massive impact on humanity for decades to come. No pressure, right? Let’s do this. Western society has, to date, been about analysis: breaking problems down into discrete components. But this approach is reaching diminishing returns in a complex world. Our technologies, like our problems, must be interlinked. For most important problems, though, there’s a gap between these technologies and each other, and also between the technologies and the hardest problems that humanity faces. This is our challenge today, and it is a historic moment, because we are beginning on the path towards unification.
- This is the decision intelligence mental model map Homework: go home and ask a friend to describe a tough decision they had to face. As they talk, listen for levers, outcomes, externals, and chains of cause-and-effect “If I make this decision today, how will it affect my objectives in the future?” Every decision made by a human is a mental simulation: if I take this action, what will happen? This framework integrates human decision makers with machine intelligence – each star is a location where technology can play a part.
- Over 8,000 followers
- Computers can also help to run these models backwards.
- Ideology is doing the same thing we’ve always done, without awareness of the “why”
- How to get there? Platform ecosystems integrated into systems of systems and mediated by a technology framework. The DI framework I showed you above is just one of several that will ultimately be used. All serve slightly different purposes. This is what drove amazon, itunes, the app store, facebook, and much more. A platform ecosystem is the most important business model today, and dominates many industries. We need a platform ecosystem to unify these technologies into a common framework. Decision Intelligence Mental Model Map (used to determine which is the best decision) DMN: the Decision Modeling Notation (used to record conditions under which to make which decisions) Prowler’s ontology… Several more, which need to be unified.
- This shape is exploding everywhere. Here, the World Economic Forum shows how we must integrate technology with society to find solutions
- An image from Raytheon
- Every decision is a mental simulation. And actions taken in one realm impact others. It is understanding these connections that we solve the great problems. And statistics, machine learning, agent-based modeling, simulation, complexity science, system dynamics, cognitive science, and more, are all needed to understand things.
- And this one is probably familiar too
- How to get there? Platform ecosystems integrated into systems of systems and mediated by a technology framework. The DI framework I showed you above is just one of several that will ultimately be used. All serve slightly different purposes. This is what drove amazon, itunes, the app store, facebook, and much more. A platform ecosystem is the most important business model today, and dominates many industries. We need a platform ecosystem to unify these technologies into a common framework. Note that this picture is from SAP, for which Decision Intelligence is on the road map. Decision Intelligence Mental Model Map (used to determine which is the best decision) DMN: the Decision Modeling Notation (used to record conditions under which to make which decisions)
- Gongos
- You can build an automated “decision dashboard” to help everyone to understand the decision blueprint. Different organizations and situations usually require a different look-and-feel
- So no pressure. But let’s do this. Thank you.