Fox News coverage of the 2016 Democratic primaries favored Hillary Clinton over Bernie Sanders. Clinton received more overall coverage, but it was more negative in tone. Sanders received less coverage but it was mostly neutral or positive. Four coders analyzed Fox News coverage after five primary dates and found Clinton received 51% more primary focus than Sanders. Coverage was also more negative towards Clinton. Fox News coverage seemed aimed at their conservative audience by criticizing the Democratic frontrunner Clinton while taking a neutral stance on Sanders.
As election day in the United States draws near, all eyes will be on early voting numbers and eventually official returns. Our resident election expert, Nicholas Whyte, prepared this guide to knowing what it will take to win and when we're likely to know the outcome. Keep it handy!
2010 11-4 election slides hot topic finalJim Reynolds
This document summarizes analysis of social media conversations around 2010 US Senate and gubernatorial election races. It finds that Christine O'Donnell received the most mentions in Senate races while Meg Whitman received the most in gubernatorial races. Trends in favorability and volume of conversation are presented for key races in California, Florida, Delaware, Kentucky, Nevada, New York, Texas, and Massachusetts. The analysis correctly predicted most outcomes, with some exceptions like the Texas gubernatorial race.
This document summarizes the process an initiative group took to create a data visualization about deaths from police shootings in the United States. They began by choosing this topic and collecting relevant data. They developed personas to represent who would use the tool. Through iterations of brainstorming, sketching, and wireframing, they designed a map-based visualization that allowed filtering and comparing state-level data. They created a working prototype and refined it based on feedback to focus on one key persona and ensure the tool met policymakers' needs.
This research analyzed rumors spread on Twitter during the 2013 Boston Marathon bombing. Four main rumors were identified and tweets related to each rumor were coded based on whether they speculated, spread misinformation, provided corrections, etc. The study found that rumors propagated over time, with some initially dominated by misinformation before being corrected. It also analyzed how individual tweet authors changed the codes they used over time, with most repeating their initial codes but some shifting to provide more corrections or questioning. The research aims to better understand how misinformation spreads during disasters.
The document is an agenda for a government team meeting that discusses upcoming elections. It includes topics like developing potential questions and responses, signing up for roles, and practicing speeches and debates. Time is allocated for unit meetings and activities like judging debates, asking follow-up questions, and giving feedback.
The letter is from current and former Republican officials urging the Republican National Committee (RNC) chairman to suspend support for Donald Trump's presidential campaign and focus resources on preserving Republican congressional majorities. It argues that Trump's divisiveness and unpopularity put GOP Senate and House races at risk. Recent polls show Trump trailing Hillary Clinton by wide margins and only having an 11% chance of winning, which could result in a Democratic landslide. The signatories believe the RNC should shift its strategy and resources to other GOP candidates to prevent the party from being weighed down by Trump.
The numbers behind numb3 rs solving crime with mathematics (malestrom)João Gabriel Lima
Don Eppes, an FBI agent, is investigating a serial killer in Los Angeles but has no leads. He asks his brother Charlie, a mathematician, for help. Charlie examines a map with the crime locations marked but sees no obvious pattern. While pondering the problem, Charlie realizes mathematics may be able to reveal a pattern and predict future crime locations.
Brics- Brazil, Russia, India, China and South AfricaMicky Lyf
BRICS is the acronym for an association of five major emerging national economies: Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa.The grouping was originally known as "BRIC" before the inclusion of South Africa in 2010. The BRICS members are all developing or newly industrialised countries.
As election day in the United States draws near, all eyes will be on early voting numbers and eventually official returns. Our resident election expert, Nicholas Whyte, prepared this guide to knowing what it will take to win and when we're likely to know the outcome. Keep it handy!
2010 11-4 election slides hot topic finalJim Reynolds
This document summarizes analysis of social media conversations around 2010 US Senate and gubernatorial election races. It finds that Christine O'Donnell received the most mentions in Senate races while Meg Whitman received the most in gubernatorial races. Trends in favorability and volume of conversation are presented for key races in California, Florida, Delaware, Kentucky, Nevada, New York, Texas, and Massachusetts. The analysis correctly predicted most outcomes, with some exceptions like the Texas gubernatorial race.
This document summarizes the process an initiative group took to create a data visualization about deaths from police shootings in the United States. They began by choosing this topic and collecting relevant data. They developed personas to represent who would use the tool. Through iterations of brainstorming, sketching, and wireframing, they designed a map-based visualization that allowed filtering and comparing state-level data. They created a working prototype and refined it based on feedback to focus on one key persona and ensure the tool met policymakers' needs.
This research analyzed rumors spread on Twitter during the 2013 Boston Marathon bombing. Four main rumors were identified and tweets related to each rumor were coded based on whether they speculated, spread misinformation, provided corrections, etc. The study found that rumors propagated over time, with some initially dominated by misinformation before being corrected. It also analyzed how individual tweet authors changed the codes they used over time, with most repeating their initial codes but some shifting to provide more corrections or questioning. The research aims to better understand how misinformation spreads during disasters.
The document is an agenda for a government team meeting that discusses upcoming elections. It includes topics like developing potential questions and responses, signing up for roles, and practicing speeches and debates. Time is allocated for unit meetings and activities like judging debates, asking follow-up questions, and giving feedback.
The letter is from current and former Republican officials urging the Republican National Committee (RNC) chairman to suspend support for Donald Trump's presidential campaign and focus resources on preserving Republican congressional majorities. It argues that Trump's divisiveness and unpopularity put GOP Senate and House races at risk. Recent polls show Trump trailing Hillary Clinton by wide margins and only having an 11% chance of winning, which could result in a Democratic landslide. The signatories believe the RNC should shift its strategy and resources to other GOP candidates to prevent the party from being weighed down by Trump.
The numbers behind numb3 rs solving crime with mathematics (malestrom)João Gabriel Lima
Don Eppes, an FBI agent, is investigating a serial killer in Los Angeles but has no leads. He asks his brother Charlie, a mathematician, for help. Charlie examines a map with the crime locations marked but sees no obvious pattern. While pondering the problem, Charlie realizes mathematics may be able to reveal a pattern and predict future crime locations.
Brics- Brazil, Russia, India, China and South AfricaMicky Lyf
BRICS is the acronym for an association of five major emerging national economies: Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa.The grouping was originally known as "BRIC" before the inclusion of South Africa in 2010. The BRICS members are all developing or newly industrialised countries.
This document discusses the BRIC nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China) and their growing economic influence. It notes that by 2050, the BRIC countries are expected to account for over 40% of the world's population and 60% of global GDP. Together, the BRIC nations already account for 40% of the world's population, 25.9% of the world's land area, and 40% of global GDP. The document outlines key economic and demographic statistics for each BRIC country and discusses their future challenges and opportunities to continue growing as economic powers.
The document discusses the economy and monetary policy of Russia. It provides economic indicators for Russia from 2010-2014, showing GDP growth slowing after 2011. It outlines the monetary policy framework and highlights four stages of monetary policy in Russia from 2000-2015: 1) rapid money growth and reserves until 2008, 2) crisis response 2008-2009 with GDP decline and currency devaluation, 3) partial return to previous policies from 2010-2011, and 4) inflation targeting and changes due to external instability from 2012 onward. Charts show trends in monetary indicators, interest rates, inflation, and trade balances over this period.
WTO = INDIA, CHINA, USA & BRICS RELATIONArmaan Anand
history of WTO, IMPACTS OF WTO ACCESSION ON CHINA, IMPACT ON US-CHINA & INDIA-CHINA, IMPORT EXPORT RELATION (US, INDIA & CHINA), BRICS- (BRAZIL, RUSSIA, INDIA, CHINA AND SOUTH AFRICA) REFERENCES, CONCLUSION of position of India china and USA on WTO, inter relation of major economies in WTO, WTO stance towards USA INDIA and CHINA, INDIA's stance against/for CHINA and USA @ WTO, BRICS, What is BRICS, Importance of BRICS, Position of countries in BRICS, CHINA's WTO commitments, Impact of WTO on CHINA, IMPACT ON US-CHINA & INDIA-CHINA, What Has USA Imposed on China or INDIA at WTO, IMPORT EXPORT RELATION (US-CHINA & INDIA-CHINA) , IMPACT ON BRICS
Jim O'Neill coined the term BRICs in 2001 to refer to the emerging economies of Brazil, Russia, India, and China that were predicted to overtake Western economies. The BRICs have experienced significant growth over the past decade, with each becoming one of the top ten economies in the world. O'Neill discusses how the growth market concept at Goldman Sachs recognizes that traditional labels of "developed" and "emerging" no longer reflect the global economy, with countries like the BRICs playing increasingly important economic roles. He also introduces the concept of the "Next 11" countries that could have growth trajectories similar to the BRICs. The document focuses on India specifically, noting its large population, resource wealth
Este documento analisa o crescimento econômico dos países do BRICS (Brasil, Rússia, Índia, China e África do Sul) nas últimas décadas. Aborda os principais fatores que explicam as taxas de crescimento de cada país, como a liberalização econômica no Brasil e na Índia, a dependência da Rússia de commodities e as reformas estruturais na Índia. Também discute o futuro potencial destas economias emergentes.
The document discusses the BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) and their potential economic growth and development by 2050. It outlines key advantages and challenges for each BRICS country. By 2050, BRICS nations are expected to account for over 40% of the world's population and 60% of global GDP. The New Development Bank was established by BRICS nations in 2015 to provide financial assistance for development projects.
The document discusses regional economic integration agreements and provides information about BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa). It outlines the formation and focus of the BRICS Forum, including establishing a development bank and addressing issues like poverty, healthcare, and infrastructure. It also provides economic overviews and statistics for each BRICS country, mentions potential new members, challenges faced by BRICS, and concludes that BRICS markets are well positioned for long-term growth despite short-term uncertainties.
This document discusses a topic modeling analysis of tweets from members of the 113th US Congress. The analysis aimed to identify patterns in party messaging and how individual members adopted or diverged from party messages. Topic modeling of over 180,000 tweets from 522 members identified 40 topics. Results showed that while members discussed a wide range of issues, both Democratic and Republican party accounts focused more on a few key messaging topics. However, some members diverged from party stances on certain issues like ISIL and Keystone pipeline.
Increasing Voter Knowledge with Pre-Election Interventions on FacebookMIT GOV/LAB
As part of our Data Science to Solve Social Problems series, Facebook Data Scientist Winter Mason presented on efforts to increase online civic engagement.
This is shortened version of a presentation that I was asked to give to a prospective political campaigning group in 2010, for I won contracts to conduct all polling for several hotly contested races, all of which I helped them win in the 2010 campaign cycle. It also includes representative clients that we have served, including not only political clients but also corporate and nonprofit brands.
This document provides guidelines for journalists on appropriately reporting opinion polls. It discusses [1] determining whether a poll meets professional standards, [2] deciding if a poll's findings have newsworthiness, and [3] the appropriate way to publish poll findings. Key points include checking a poll's methodology, sample size, and margin of error; using polls to enhance issues coverage rather than set the agenda; and providing full context and disclosure when publishing poll results. The guidelines aim to help journalists identify valid, reliable polls and determine the most meaningful way to communicate poll findings to their audience.
The document discusses the influence of mass media on U.S. elections. It notes that while voters see media as influential, they also distrust media coverage and think it focuses too much on trivial issues rather than substantive policy topics. Additionally, media coverage tends to emphasize the "horse race" aspects of elections rather than exploring candidates' positions. The document also examines questions around media bias, the impact of money and transparency in elections, and the rising influence of social media.
This document summarizes a project analyzing sentiment in tweets from the third 2016 US Presidential debate between Clinton and Trump. The team collected over 100,000 tweets using APIs and analyzed sentiment using the VADER analyzer, achieving 68% accuracy. Visualizations of keywords and sentiment were created and made available online. Sentiment analysis determined positive or negative emotions associated with text, and VADER was used as it is context-aware. Motivations included using tweets as a gauge of issue discussion and that social media is a popular place for political discussion.
The document summarizes primary research conducted on thriller movie preferences. It describes the researchers' initial questions and methods, including an early survey that had flaws. They then conducted an improved survey asking for ages, character age preferences, and favorite thriller subgenres of 16-20, 21-64, and 65+ year olds. The results showed spy and crime as most popular subgenres, though action and crime films were cited as favorites. In conclusion, the surveys provided insights into thriller movie preferences across age groups.
This document describes a fuzzy logic political AI system created by students to predict outcomes of Democratic primary elections based on key factors. The system uses four inputs - black voting population size, how liberal the state is, and whether it is a candidate's home state. It was built using MATLAB and aimed to predict primaries based on these common factors. Testing on sample state primary data found it could generate generally accurate predictions, though sometimes results differed from real outcomes possibly due to unknown factors not accounted for in the system.
Using network science to understand elections: the South African 2014 nationa...Socialphysicist
This presentation describes our research into the roughly one million tweets that we collected in the run-up to the 2014 national elections in South Africa. It uses a mixture of network theory and data science to unpack the main communities and topics of conversation. The paper won the Gold Award for Best Paper at the 2015 SAMRA conference.
The document summarizes a research study that examined whether the race of a speaker affects people's perceptions of and agreement with the political arguments being presented. The study hypothesized that a speaker's race would activate racial schemas in participants, causing racial conservatives to agree less with non-white speakers. A survey was conducted where participants read about a proposed motorcycle law attributed to speakers of different races and indicated their agreement. The findings showed little difference in agreement based on speaker race, though racial liberals showed less variation than conservatives. Racial conservatives were more likely to identify as Republican and be older than racial liberals.
The document contains lecture slides from the textbook "American Politics Today" covering the topic of elections in the United States. It discusses the functions of elections, the primary and general election process, how congressional and presidential elections are determined, campaign fundamentals like fundraising and advertising, and conclusions from the 2016 election. Public opinion poll questions are also included at the end.
Event Analysis on the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election Using Social MediaJinho Choi
It is not surprising that social media have played an important role in shaping the political debate during the 2016 presidential election. The dynamics of social media provide a unique opportunity to detect and interpret the pivotal events and scandals of the candidates quantitatively. This paper examines several text-based analysis to determine which topics have a lasting impact on the election for the two main candidates, Clinton and Trump. About 135.5 million tweets are collected over the six weeks prior to the election. From these tweets, topic clustering, keyword extraction, and tweeter analysis are performed to better understand the impact of the events occurred during this period. Our analysis builds upon a social science foundation to provide another avenue for scholars to use in discerning how events detected from social media show the impacts of campaigns as well as campaign the election.
The Presidential Race: A look at election speeches and what personality winsInnovAccer
The document discusses a study conducted by a text analytics group to determine if certain personality traits exhibited in presidential candidate speeches can influence election outcomes. The group analyzed over 1,500 speeches from seven candidates across six US elections. They extracted measures of the Big Five personality traits and usage of past, present, and future verbs to indicate vision versus past comparisons. Optimism/pessimism was also measured. Statistical models showed that speeches exhibiting optimism, a forward-looking vision, and specific personality traits were more likely to result in greater vote percentages and election victories, both at the state and national level. The results demonstrate that presidential elections involve personality battles and that certain traits in campaign speeches are rewarded by voters.
This document discusses several topics related to mass media and public opinion in the United States, including how public opinion is shaped through political socialization and factors like family, schools, peers and media. It also covers how politicians and others measure public opinion through polls, letters, and election results. Finally, it discusses how the media can influence public agenda and elections through their choice of issues and candidates covered, as well as potential biases in media reporting.
This document discusses the BRIC nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China) and their growing economic influence. It notes that by 2050, the BRIC countries are expected to account for over 40% of the world's population and 60% of global GDP. Together, the BRIC nations already account for 40% of the world's population, 25.9% of the world's land area, and 40% of global GDP. The document outlines key economic and demographic statistics for each BRIC country and discusses their future challenges and opportunities to continue growing as economic powers.
The document discusses the economy and monetary policy of Russia. It provides economic indicators for Russia from 2010-2014, showing GDP growth slowing after 2011. It outlines the monetary policy framework and highlights four stages of monetary policy in Russia from 2000-2015: 1) rapid money growth and reserves until 2008, 2) crisis response 2008-2009 with GDP decline and currency devaluation, 3) partial return to previous policies from 2010-2011, and 4) inflation targeting and changes due to external instability from 2012 onward. Charts show trends in monetary indicators, interest rates, inflation, and trade balances over this period.
WTO = INDIA, CHINA, USA & BRICS RELATIONArmaan Anand
history of WTO, IMPACTS OF WTO ACCESSION ON CHINA, IMPACT ON US-CHINA & INDIA-CHINA, IMPORT EXPORT RELATION (US, INDIA & CHINA), BRICS- (BRAZIL, RUSSIA, INDIA, CHINA AND SOUTH AFRICA) REFERENCES, CONCLUSION of position of India china and USA on WTO, inter relation of major economies in WTO, WTO stance towards USA INDIA and CHINA, INDIA's stance against/for CHINA and USA @ WTO, BRICS, What is BRICS, Importance of BRICS, Position of countries in BRICS, CHINA's WTO commitments, Impact of WTO on CHINA, IMPACT ON US-CHINA & INDIA-CHINA, What Has USA Imposed on China or INDIA at WTO, IMPORT EXPORT RELATION (US-CHINA & INDIA-CHINA) , IMPACT ON BRICS
Jim O'Neill coined the term BRICs in 2001 to refer to the emerging economies of Brazil, Russia, India, and China that were predicted to overtake Western economies. The BRICs have experienced significant growth over the past decade, with each becoming one of the top ten economies in the world. O'Neill discusses how the growth market concept at Goldman Sachs recognizes that traditional labels of "developed" and "emerging" no longer reflect the global economy, with countries like the BRICs playing increasingly important economic roles. He also introduces the concept of the "Next 11" countries that could have growth trajectories similar to the BRICs. The document focuses on India specifically, noting its large population, resource wealth
Este documento analisa o crescimento econômico dos países do BRICS (Brasil, Rússia, Índia, China e África do Sul) nas últimas décadas. Aborda os principais fatores que explicam as taxas de crescimento de cada país, como a liberalização econômica no Brasil e na Índia, a dependência da Rússia de commodities e as reformas estruturais na Índia. Também discute o futuro potencial destas economias emergentes.
The document discusses the BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) and their potential economic growth and development by 2050. It outlines key advantages and challenges for each BRICS country. By 2050, BRICS nations are expected to account for over 40% of the world's population and 60% of global GDP. The New Development Bank was established by BRICS nations in 2015 to provide financial assistance for development projects.
The document discusses regional economic integration agreements and provides information about BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa). It outlines the formation and focus of the BRICS Forum, including establishing a development bank and addressing issues like poverty, healthcare, and infrastructure. It also provides economic overviews and statistics for each BRICS country, mentions potential new members, challenges faced by BRICS, and concludes that BRICS markets are well positioned for long-term growth despite short-term uncertainties.
This document discusses a topic modeling analysis of tweets from members of the 113th US Congress. The analysis aimed to identify patterns in party messaging and how individual members adopted or diverged from party messages. Topic modeling of over 180,000 tweets from 522 members identified 40 topics. Results showed that while members discussed a wide range of issues, both Democratic and Republican party accounts focused more on a few key messaging topics. However, some members diverged from party stances on certain issues like ISIL and Keystone pipeline.
Increasing Voter Knowledge with Pre-Election Interventions on FacebookMIT GOV/LAB
As part of our Data Science to Solve Social Problems series, Facebook Data Scientist Winter Mason presented on efforts to increase online civic engagement.
This is shortened version of a presentation that I was asked to give to a prospective political campaigning group in 2010, for I won contracts to conduct all polling for several hotly contested races, all of which I helped them win in the 2010 campaign cycle. It also includes representative clients that we have served, including not only political clients but also corporate and nonprofit brands.
This document provides guidelines for journalists on appropriately reporting opinion polls. It discusses [1] determining whether a poll meets professional standards, [2] deciding if a poll's findings have newsworthiness, and [3] the appropriate way to publish poll findings. Key points include checking a poll's methodology, sample size, and margin of error; using polls to enhance issues coverage rather than set the agenda; and providing full context and disclosure when publishing poll results. The guidelines aim to help journalists identify valid, reliable polls and determine the most meaningful way to communicate poll findings to their audience.
The document discusses the influence of mass media on U.S. elections. It notes that while voters see media as influential, they also distrust media coverage and think it focuses too much on trivial issues rather than substantive policy topics. Additionally, media coverage tends to emphasize the "horse race" aspects of elections rather than exploring candidates' positions. The document also examines questions around media bias, the impact of money and transparency in elections, and the rising influence of social media.
This document summarizes a project analyzing sentiment in tweets from the third 2016 US Presidential debate between Clinton and Trump. The team collected over 100,000 tweets using APIs and analyzed sentiment using the VADER analyzer, achieving 68% accuracy. Visualizations of keywords and sentiment were created and made available online. Sentiment analysis determined positive or negative emotions associated with text, and VADER was used as it is context-aware. Motivations included using tweets as a gauge of issue discussion and that social media is a popular place for political discussion.
The document summarizes primary research conducted on thriller movie preferences. It describes the researchers' initial questions and methods, including an early survey that had flaws. They then conducted an improved survey asking for ages, character age preferences, and favorite thriller subgenres of 16-20, 21-64, and 65+ year olds. The results showed spy and crime as most popular subgenres, though action and crime films were cited as favorites. In conclusion, the surveys provided insights into thriller movie preferences across age groups.
This document describes a fuzzy logic political AI system created by students to predict outcomes of Democratic primary elections based on key factors. The system uses four inputs - black voting population size, how liberal the state is, and whether it is a candidate's home state. It was built using MATLAB and aimed to predict primaries based on these common factors. Testing on sample state primary data found it could generate generally accurate predictions, though sometimes results differed from real outcomes possibly due to unknown factors not accounted for in the system.
Using network science to understand elections: the South African 2014 nationa...Socialphysicist
This presentation describes our research into the roughly one million tweets that we collected in the run-up to the 2014 national elections in South Africa. It uses a mixture of network theory and data science to unpack the main communities and topics of conversation. The paper won the Gold Award for Best Paper at the 2015 SAMRA conference.
The document summarizes a research study that examined whether the race of a speaker affects people's perceptions of and agreement with the political arguments being presented. The study hypothesized that a speaker's race would activate racial schemas in participants, causing racial conservatives to agree less with non-white speakers. A survey was conducted where participants read about a proposed motorcycle law attributed to speakers of different races and indicated their agreement. The findings showed little difference in agreement based on speaker race, though racial liberals showed less variation than conservatives. Racial conservatives were more likely to identify as Republican and be older than racial liberals.
The document contains lecture slides from the textbook "American Politics Today" covering the topic of elections in the United States. It discusses the functions of elections, the primary and general election process, how congressional and presidential elections are determined, campaign fundamentals like fundraising and advertising, and conclusions from the 2016 election. Public opinion poll questions are also included at the end.
Event Analysis on the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election Using Social MediaJinho Choi
It is not surprising that social media have played an important role in shaping the political debate during the 2016 presidential election. The dynamics of social media provide a unique opportunity to detect and interpret the pivotal events and scandals of the candidates quantitatively. This paper examines several text-based analysis to determine which topics have a lasting impact on the election for the two main candidates, Clinton and Trump. About 135.5 million tweets are collected over the six weeks prior to the election. From these tweets, topic clustering, keyword extraction, and tweeter analysis are performed to better understand the impact of the events occurred during this period. Our analysis builds upon a social science foundation to provide another avenue for scholars to use in discerning how events detected from social media show the impacts of campaigns as well as campaign the election.
The Presidential Race: A look at election speeches and what personality winsInnovAccer
The document discusses a study conducted by a text analytics group to determine if certain personality traits exhibited in presidential candidate speeches can influence election outcomes. The group analyzed over 1,500 speeches from seven candidates across six US elections. They extracted measures of the Big Five personality traits and usage of past, present, and future verbs to indicate vision versus past comparisons. Optimism/pessimism was also measured. Statistical models showed that speeches exhibiting optimism, a forward-looking vision, and specific personality traits were more likely to result in greater vote percentages and election victories, both at the state and national level. The results demonstrate that presidential elections involve personality battles and that certain traits in campaign speeches are rewarded by voters.
This document discusses several topics related to mass media and public opinion in the United States, including how public opinion is shaped through political socialization and factors like family, schools, peers and media. It also covers how politicians and others measure public opinion through polls, letters, and election results. Finally, it discusses how the media can influence public agenda and elections through their choice of issues and candidates covered, as well as potential biases in media reporting.
Describe a time when you took a great risk. What was the outcomeLiliaCristina Diaz
The document describes the respondent's experience working on Antanas Mockus' 2010 presidential campaign in Colombia as the director of procurement and budgeting. Some key details:
- The campaign took significant financial risks with limited funding but relied on volunteer support.
- The respondent managed a small team and was responsible for purchasing and distributing millions of campaign materials across Colombia on a limited budget.
- The campaign significantly outperformed expectations in early polling and voter turnout but ultimately lost in a close race in the first round of voting.
- Though they did not win the presidency, the respondent viewed it as one of the most meaningful experiences of their life and an example of civic participation and grassroots campaigning.
This document discusses communicating effectively with Hispanic voters. It notes that the Hispanic electorate is growing rapidly and will make up over 40 million eligible voters by 2030. Many Hispanic voters are persuadable and open to voting across party lines. Television, especially Spanish-language TV, is the top source for political information for Hispanic voters. The document advocates communicating through Spanish-language media to reach unduplicated Hispanic audiences and build trust. It provides data on Univision's audience and targeting capabilities across platforms to help political campaigns effectively reach Hispanic voters.
A look at how Ragnar Research Partners was able to be so successful in the 2018 cycle, as well as the best opinion research practices heading into 2019 & beyond. This includes proper representation of cell phone-only households, weighting partisanship in every race based on previous Presidential Election results, and a rigorous, systematic, and fanatic devotion to the construction of proper stratification and sample frames.
Trump vs Clinton - Polling Opinions: How the polls were wrong and how to fix...chrisbrock54
This document discusses ways that pollsters could improve their election predictions in the future based on failures in the 2016 US presidential election. It identifies several issues with polls in 2016, including relying on small sample sizes, outdated polling methods, and neglecting online data sources. It then provides eight fixes for pollsters, such as applying robust statistical models, incorporating modern technology and online data, accurately assessing the impact of scandals, and utilizing digital advertising data from Facebook. The overall message is that pollsters need to embrace new data sources and statistical methods to make more accurate predictions.
This study analyzed the tone of Fox Business Network's coverage of presidential candidates Donald Trump and John Kasich during the 2016 primaries. It found that Trump received more negative coverage (67%) than Kasich (52%), supporting the hypothesis that the media has a pro-establishment bias. The coverage focused most on candidates' character and horserace performance. Trump was depicted negatively as unpolished and offensive, while Kasich was seen as too passive. Reporters often expressed opinions on which candidate would win primaries based on campaign strategies. Kasich received more positive coverage of his policies due to his experience in government budgets. The study found evidence that the media frames candidates in ways that shape public perceptions.
This document appears to be analyzing media coverage of the 2016 Democratic primary elections over time. It contains various charts and graphs showing trends in media coverage such as the percentage of clips that showed bias, were poll-driven, or focused on the primary candidates over the weeks following primary votes. Additional charts examine trends in tone of media coverage and time spent on the two main candidates, Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders.
The document summarizes research on how Cuba's dictatorship has survived for decades. It began after the Cuban Revolution and established Fidel Castro as the authoritarian leader. Over time, the regime has faced obstacles from human rights violations, economic problems, government corruption, and repression of citizens. As Castro stepped down, the literature discusses both the heroic image cultivated by the regime as well as ongoing human rights issues like arbitrary detentions. Raúl Castro's presidency was seen by some as a potential opportunity for economic liberalization, but others noted the regime continues to imprison and torture critics.
This document summarizes a research paper about how Cuba has survived under a dictatorship regime for decades. It identifies three key factors: 1) Fidel Castro's repressive behavior, including creating a spy network and punishing any opposition, instilled fear in Cubans. 2) The government propagandized the revolution to convince Cubans international interference threatened their way of life. 3) Cubans did not want interference from other countries like the U.S. or exiled Cubans reclaiming property, though it's unclear if this view was coerced. The document concludes Fidel Castro is largely responsible for Cuba surviving dictatorship through repressive tactics that continue under Raul Castro's leadership.
This document discusses the political and economic history of Cuba. It notes that Cuba has a communist government led by the Cuban Communist Party, with a three branch system led by President Raul Castro. The document outlines reforms Cuba has undertaken since the 1950s, including establishing a welfare state. More recently, Cuba has debated moving away from a purely socialist economic model and allowing some private enterprise and foreign investment to address economic issues while maintaining socialist values and sovereignty. The Cuban government recognizes weaknesses in its system and is working to improve political institutions, decentralize some functions, and distinguish essential socialist goals from aspects that can incorporate market principles.
This document appears to be a survey or poll consisting of 8 multiple choice questions asking the respondent about their familiarity with and views of two political candidates, how an article may have affected their views on voting, whether they felt informed, if they are registered to vote, their political party preference, sex, and age. The questions aim to collect information about the respondent's political knowledge and views.
Candidate A is a 66-year-old Republican from Kansas who owns a remodeling business. They believe in American exceptionalism and have run unsuccessfully for president 8 times. Candidate B is a 72-year-old retired aircraft mechanic from Texas with 28 years of service in the Air Force. They are active in their church and own a recording studio. Candidate B argues against expanding the legal definition of marriage but supports a path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants and legalizing all drugs.
Candidate A is a 66-year-old Republican from Kansas who owns a remodeling business. They believe in American exceptionalism but have mixed political views. Candidate A supports traditional marriage but allows some abortion exceptions. They back immigration enforcement but also a citizenship path. Candidate A fully supports legalizing all drugs.
Candidate B is a 72-year-old Democrat from California with 28 years of military experience. They have run for president eight consecutive times since 1988. Candidate B claims they were commanded by God to run for president to bring prosperity and economic recovery.
Candidate A is a 66-year-old centrist Republican candidate for President who was born in Germany but grew up in Colorado and New Mexico. After graduating from Brigham Young University with a degree in marketing, Candidate A spent two years as a missionary in Chile and now owns a remodeling business in Kansas. Candidate A has a mix of liberal and conservative policy positions.
Candidate B is a 72-year-old retired aircraft mechanic and 28-year veteran of the U.S. Air Force who is running for President as a Democrat. After serving active duty from 1961-1965, Candidate B served in the Air Force Reserve until 1990 and received the Air Force Reserve "Airman of the Year" award in 1978.
The document discusses a proposed experiment on the voting behaviors of young voters. It aims to test whether exposing young voters to facts about political candidates affects how they vote based on logic rather than popularity. The experiment would have three groups: a control group exposed to candidate biographies and a post-test, and two treatment groups additionally exposed to alternating facts about candidates' policies and given a post-test. The experiment hopes to show that with more information, young voters will make informed choices at the ballot box. Previous research discussed found that young voters with less life experience and knowledge tended to vote based more on popularity than issues.
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The author discusses their group project analyzing Fox News' Democratic primary coverage. They organized their group of 4 coders, scheduled coding days and trainer, created materials, and ensured good communication. They alternated who coded which primaries and met to code clips together for reliability. Each member volunteered for a section of the presentation - introduction, methods/results, and conclusion. The author felt their group communicated well and worked equally, and was honored to work with them.
1. Andrea,Nohemi,Adisa,Ana 1
Introduction:
We conducted a content analysis of how the media covers presidential candidates during
the 2016 primaries. For our research, we chose to analyze Fox News video clips from their
website. Since there are a variety of candidates running for the presidential nominee, we decided
to narrow our focus by examining the two Democratic candidates, former Secretary of State
Hillary Clinton and Senator Bernie Sanders. In the research we investigate many different factors
that help us determine what kind of coverage the network gave the candidates.
We established a coding sheet (Appendix A) for measuring the program clips. We coded
for the days after the following Democratic primaries: February 9th, March 1st, March 8th, March
15th, and March 22nd. For our research, we decided that coding on the days after the primaries
would presumably provide a significant amount of Democratic primary coverage. In our study,
we had a total of four coders. We decided to separate the coders into two categories. Coder one
and coder two coded on the days after the following three primaries: February 9th, March 8th, and
March 22nd. Coder three and coder four coded on the days after the following two primaries:
March 1st and March 15th.
As previously mentioned, coders one and two began coding on the days after the
February 9th primary. During the days after the primary, February 10th coders one and two began
their coding separately, in the morning, a day later February 12th they coded in the afternoon and
on the final day they coded on February 14th in the evening. The goal for each coder was that the
three days of coding would equal 30 minutes’ worth of coverage. We determined that both of
their 30 minutes of coding would equal 60 minutes and we established that 60 minutes’ worth of
coding would provide us enough information for us to analyze. The coding sheet measured Fox
2. Andrea,Nohemi,Adisa,Ana 2
News Programs for bias, poll driven, election outcomes and the coding sheet measured both
candidates on primary focus, tone, momentum, and the time spent talking about both candidates.
Methods:
We measured bias if whether or not the video clip showed favoritism towards either of the
two candidates. We measured if the program clips was extremely negative towards either the
candidates or a particular candidate. If the video appeared to show a balanced perspective
between both of the candidates, we categorized as being unbiased. We chose variables nine and
ten because we wanted to know how much focus was directed to both of the candidates.
The majority of the program clips did not last longer than seven minutes. We also realized
that many of the Democratic primary video clips lasted anywhere from two minutes to seven
minutes. Coders three and four followed the same coding protocol that was conducted during the
days after the February 9th primary, but this time they coded for the days after the March 1st
primary. Coders one and two continued the same coding pattern for the days after the March 8th
primary. However, during the days after the March 15th primary, we decided to change our
coding protocol. Instead coders three and four began their coding analysis in the evening March
16th, a day later they coded in the afternoon on March 18th, and coders three and four coded on
March 20th in the morning. We decided to alternate our coding protocol because we discovered
that when we began our first day of coding in the morning, we had a difficult time finding a
substantial amount of video clips that we could use for our research. Therefore, we hypothesized
that by coding in the evening on the first day, we would find more video clips than if we had
started in the morning. During our last days of coding for the days after the March 22nd primary,
coders one and two followed the revised coding protocol and began their first day of coding in
the evening.
3. Andrea,Nohemi,Adisa,Ana 3
In order to test how reliable our findings were, we decided to conduct an inter coder reliability
test (Appendix C). We gathered five Fox News clips each coder had to separately code those five
clips. Once we gathered our coding sheets, we began to analyze our inter coder reliability. Our
results (Appendix D) indicated that there was over 80 percent (N=5) agreement across all four
coders.
Results:
We had a total of 63 coding sheets among all four coders (Appendix B). An important factor
that we analyzed was bias. Our variables indicated that there was a 32 percent bias overall in our
research. In general the majority of the clips that we watched were news based coverage. As a
whole, we did not code a substantial amount of opinion shows to compare with the significant
amount of news based coverage. We concluded that based on our substantial quantity of news
based coverage was unbiased (The chi-square statistic is 7.9456. The p-value is .047149. The
result is significant at p < .05; N=63).
4. Andrea,Nohemi,Adisa,Ana 4
The poll driven variable overall results indicated that media did not cover a substantial
amount of coverage regarding this variable at 34 percent. Fox News showed no significance (The
chi-square statistic is 2.6967. The p-value is .440789. The result is not significant at p < .05;
N=63) on their media coverage in regards to the election outcome variable even though there
was 51 percent.
Fox News gave more media attention towards Hillary Clinton than as oppose to Bernie
Sanders. Our overall assessment indicated that Clinton received 51 percent more coverage over
Sanders. The primary focus variable overall on Hillary Clinton was 68 percent and Bernie
Sanders received overall 17 percent of primary focus (The chi-square statistic is 33.1852. The p-
value is < .00001. The result is significant at p < .05; N=63). Clinton received more “half” in the
time spent variable at 46 percent as oppose to Sanders who received 27 percent amount of
coverage. Clinton received 33 percent of the “all” time spent variable and Sanders who received
10 percent. For the time spent variables, our results were significant (The chi-square statistic is
29.6155. The p-value is < 0.00001. The result is significant at p < .05; N=63).
Even though Clinton received a substantial amount of coverage as oppose to Sanders,
Clinton did received more negative coverage in our overall analysis. She received 48 percent
negative coverage than Sanders who received 8 percent negative coverage. Sanders did,
however, receive more neutral coverage than Clinton. Fox News’s tone in terms of neutral for
Sanders was 60 percent. Clinton however, neutral tone was 35 percent. (The chi-square statistic
is 24.7367. The p-value is < 0.00001. The result is significant at p < .05; N=63)
5. Andrea,Nohemi,Adisa,Ana 5
Clinton received the most focus during the days after the March 1st primary at 72 percent and
the days after the March 15th primary at 90 percent. Sanders received the same amount of
percentages for the days after the March 1st and March 8th primary at 30 percent. Our results
show that Fox News appeals to their niche audiences. The network would give both candidates
coverage. However, since Fox News is labeled as a conservative network, we can assume by our
results that Fox News covered more on Hillary Clinton and reported more negatively so that their
niche audiences would be satisfied since their audiences are older conservatives. The network
did not seem to be so focused on Bernie Sanders. This could be a result from his party
identification. Our results could indicate that their coverage on Bernie Sanders was to show the
audience there might be issues in Hillary Clinton’s campaign.
6. Andrea,Nohemi,Adisa,Ana 6
For the days after the March 8th primary Clinton received the most negative coverage at
70 percent and her momentum mentioned was at 60 percent. Clinton received most positive tone
during the days after the March 22nd primary at 27 percent. Sanders overwhelming received
positive tone coverage for the days after the February 9th primary by 60 percent and 50 percent
for the days after the March 8th primary. In addition, Sanders received the most momentum
coverage for the days after the February 9th primary at 70 percent. Sanders did not receive a
substantial amount of negative tone; the most negative tone that he received was for the days
after the March 1st primary at 17 percent.
7. Andrea,Nohemi,Adisa,Ana 7
On average of time spent, Clinton’s highest average was during the days after the March
1st primary and March 15th both equaling at 3.8. Sanders’s highest average was at 2.2 after the
days following the March 22nd primary. Clinton’s highest time average was a result of her
winning primaries. After March 15th, Fox News reduced the amount of time they spent talking
about Clinton due to Sanders winning primaries back to back. It was not expected for Sanders to
win as many states and Clinton’s campaign strategies are now in question.
Conclusion:
We examined the Fox News’s primary coverage of the Democratic candidates. We
focused on Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders. We had four different coders who were split into
half to code on different days. Coders would code after the day of the primary. We needed to
have 30 minutes worth of coverage. We coded three times in the week in order to get the 30
minute coverage. In order to test our inter coder reliability we gathered five Fox News clips and
each person would code separately. The results indicated that there was over 80% agreement
across all four coders.
8. Andrea,Nohemi,Adisa,Ana 8
The coding sheets focused on program bias, poll driven, election outcome, primary focus
on the candidates, candidates’ momentum, and time spent on the candidates. What we concluded
was that Hillary Clinton ended up having more coverage than Bernie Sanders but it was more
negative coverage. Even though Bernie Sanders had less coverage, his coverage was either
positive or neutral. In total, we ended up having 63 coding sheets. Overall, Fox News’s coverage
was true to their niche audiences, these are older conservatives, by reporting negatively towards
Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton.