The document discusses estimation and metrics for work in progress (WIP), lead time, and throughput. It introduces Little's Law, which states that average WIP equals average lead time multiplied by average throughput. The document explores applying Little's Law to estimate time to complete work based on number of items, average lead time, and average throughput. It also addresses challenges like lack of initial data and transitioning estimation mid-project.

1. Oh ffs, can we please
stop estimating
Olga Loyev

2. Introduction

3. Why are we here?

4. Let’s step back

5. Estimation

6. What is it we’re trying to achieve?

7. What we did

8. Can we do better?

9. Work in Progress
= # of things in being
worked on
Lead Time
= Time from start to finish
Throughput
= How much you get
done per period of time

10. Looking at our data

11. The less guessing you do,
the better

12. reporting metrics
Little’s Law:
average WIP = average LT x average TP
http://www.cs.bilkent.edu.tr/~tugrul/CS518/Papers/little.pdf
http://web.mit.edu/sgraves/www/papers/Little's%20Law-Published.pdf

13. Conditions/assumptions:
● Items of similar size
● Conservation of flow: departure rate =
average arrival rate
● All work items that enter the system will
eventually be completed and will exit the
system

14. How do we apply it?
Time to complete = N/aTP
Or
Time to complete = N* (aLT/aWIP)

15. Size of stories?
●

16. Transition mid project

17. Risk/issues/considerations?

18. Time/Price at start of project?
- Data

19. Time/Price at start of project?
- NO Data

20. Forecast future release

21. Milestones

22. Final thoughts