This document discusses using Monte Carlo forecasting to predict project completion dates. It explains that Monte Carlo forecasting acknowledges variability and uncertainty by running multiple simulations of random task durations to predict a range of possible completion dates. The document provides instructions for creating a Monte Carlo forecast, discusses how the technique was used on a project, and notes some limitations and variations of the approach.
Music City Agile 2019 - Measuring Flow: Metrics that MatterJulie Wyman
The document discusses different metrics that can be used to measure workflow and flow, including throughput, lead time, cycle time, and cumulative flow diagrams. Throughput measures the number of work items completed over time and can be used for predictability. Lead and cycle times measure how long work items take to move through different stages. Cumulative flow diagrams visualize the number of work items in each stage over time to identify bottlenecks and work-in-progress. Improving flow through metrics can deliver work earlier, increase feedback, and smooth workloads.
BASD 2019 - Measuring Flow: Metrics that MatterJulie Wyman
The document discusses various metrics that can be used to measure workflow and identify bottlenecks, including throughput, cycle time, lead time, and cumulative flow diagrams. It explains that prioritizing flow over utilization results in more rapid workflow and shorter response times. Various flow metrics are defined and examples are provided to illustrate how they can be collected and used to visualize trends, predict delivery times, and identify areas for improvement.
Agile Dev West 2018_Measuring Flow: Metrics that MatterJulie Wyman
The document discusses different metrics for measuring workflow, including lead time, cycle time, throughput, and cumulative flow diagrams (CFDs). It explains that lead time is the total time from start to finish of a work item, while cycle time does not include wait time. Throughput measures the number of work items completed within a time period. CFDs visualize the number of work items in different workflow stages over time to identify bottlenecks. The document provides examples of charts for these different metrics and discusses how teams can use metrics to understand their workflow and improve predictability.
Software development does not benefit from economies of scale and instead experiences diseconomies of scale. Developing in small batches provides several advantages: it accelerates feedback, makes debugging easier, allows for better visualization of progress, de-risks projects, improves estimation, enables more pivoting, gives more opportunities to inspect and adapt work, and delivers value to customers more efficiently.
This document outlines an 8-phase project timeline with 8 milestones from January 15 to December 28. It is divided into 4 phases ranging from 8.4 to 26.4 weeks. Key milestones include Milestone 1 on January 15, Milestone 2 on February 20, and the final Milestone 8 on December 28. The timeline is created with Office Timeline, a free PowerPoint add-in that allows users to easily make timelines and Gantt charts within PowerPoint.
This presentation was delivered at Gluecon 2018. It covered how to think about monitoring, a framework for incremental improvement in monitoring and common mistakes that teams make when approaching software monitoring.
This document outlines an 8 milestone project plan from September to November 2015, including the dates for each milestone and 5 tasks with their duration. Milestones 1 through 8 are scheduled on specific dates from September 8 to November 30. Five tasks are also listed with their start and end dates, ranging in duration from 17 to 44 days. The document promotes downloading a free Office Timeline PowerPoint add-in to easily edit timelines and create Gantt charts within PowerPoint.
This document outlines a project timeline from May 2015 to December 2015. It details two phases - a mechanical phase from May to September and an electrical phase from May to December. Key milestones for each phase include material availability, testing completion, certification, production, and conditional release. The timeline provides visual representation of schedule and dependencies between tasks in the two project phases.
Music City Agile 2019 - Measuring Flow: Metrics that MatterJulie Wyman
The document discusses different metrics that can be used to measure workflow and flow, including throughput, lead time, cycle time, and cumulative flow diagrams. Throughput measures the number of work items completed over time and can be used for predictability. Lead and cycle times measure how long work items take to move through different stages. Cumulative flow diagrams visualize the number of work items in each stage over time to identify bottlenecks and work-in-progress. Improving flow through metrics can deliver work earlier, increase feedback, and smooth workloads.
BASD 2019 - Measuring Flow: Metrics that MatterJulie Wyman
The document discusses various metrics that can be used to measure workflow and identify bottlenecks, including throughput, cycle time, lead time, and cumulative flow diagrams. It explains that prioritizing flow over utilization results in more rapid workflow and shorter response times. Various flow metrics are defined and examples are provided to illustrate how they can be collected and used to visualize trends, predict delivery times, and identify areas for improvement.
Agile Dev West 2018_Measuring Flow: Metrics that MatterJulie Wyman
The document discusses different metrics for measuring workflow, including lead time, cycle time, throughput, and cumulative flow diagrams (CFDs). It explains that lead time is the total time from start to finish of a work item, while cycle time does not include wait time. Throughput measures the number of work items completed within a time period. CFDs visualize the number of work items in different workflow stages over time to identify bottlenecks. The document provides examples of charts for these different metrics and discusses how teams can use metrics to understand their workflow and improve predictability.
Software development does not benefit from economies of scale and instead experiences diseconomies of scale. Developing in small batches provides several advantages: it accelerates feedback, makes debugging easier, allows for better visualization of progress, de-risks projects, improves estimation, enables more pivoting, gives more opportunities to inspect and adapt work, and delivers value to customers more efficiently.
This document outlines an 8-phase project timeline with 8 milestones from January 15 to December 28. It is divided into 4 phases ranging from 8.4 to 26.4 weeks. Key milestones include Milestone 1 on January 15, Milestone 2 on February 20, and the final Milestone 8 on December 28. The timeline is created with Office Timeline, a free PowerPoint add-in that allows users to easily make timelines and Gantt charts within PowerPoint.
This presentation was delivered at Gluecon 2018. It covered how to think about monitoring, a framework for incremental improvement in monitoring and common mistakes that teams make when approaching software monitoring.
This document outlines an 8 milestone project plan from September to November 2015, including the dates for each milestone and 5 tasks with their duration. Milestones 1 through 8 are scheduled on specific dates from September 8 to November 30. Five tasks are also listed with their start and end dates, ranging in duration from 17 to 44 days. The document promotes downloading a free Office Timeline PowerPoint add-in to easily edit timelines and create Gantt charts within PowerPoint.
This document outlines a project timeline from May 2015 to December 2015. It details two phases - a mechanical phase from May to September and an electrical phase from May to December. Key milestones for each phase include material availability, testing completion, certification, production, and conditional release. The timeline provides visual representation of schedule and dependencies between tasks in the two project phases.
Lean Kanban India 2016 | Stop fudging the numbers and Start Forecasting with ...LeanKanbanIndia
This document discusses forecasting techniques for software projects. It introduces Little's Law which relates the number of customers in a system to the arrival rate and time spent in the system. It notes that traditional "agile" forecasting is heuristic and prone to cognitive biases while stochastic forecasting uses statistical models based on historic data. Building an accurate stochastic model requires capturing factors like work in progress, cycle time, bugs and scope changes. The model is validated against history and used for Monte Carlo simulations to generate forecasts with an 85th percentile range. Reducing variability improves forecasts.
This document discusses alternatives to using team velocity as a metric for software development teams. It proposes measuring the frequency of delivering value to users through high value releases, prioritizing work that provides the best value for effort, and recognizing individuals who consistently deliver high value features. Specific metrics proposed include an L value batting average measuring weeks with high value releases, slugging percentage measuring value delivered, and a silver slugger award for top performers.
This document outlines a project timeline with 5 milestones from August 29 to October 3. It is divided into two phases, with phase 1 spanning 11 days and containing 4 sub-tasks of varying durations, and phase 2 spanning 12 days and containing 4 sub-tasks. The timeline also advertises a free PowerPoint add-in called Office Timeline that allows users to easily create and edit Gantt charts directly within PowerPoint.
Geek Sync | New Features in SQL Server That Will Change the Way You TuneIDERA Software
You can watch the replay for this Geek Sync webcast in the IDERA Resource Center: http://ow.ly/pAle50A5aoG
Since the new cardinality estimator was released in SQL Server 2014, every version on SQL Server has introduced new great features designed to help your queries run at max performance. In 2016, it was Query Store; in 2017, Adaptive Query Processing and Automatic Tuning have been introduced.
Join IDERA and Lance Tidwell as he explores these new features and how they can make your life easier as a DBA. Lance will also look at some of the pitfalls and potential issues that can arise from these new features. This is a special Geek Sync you will not want to miss!
About Lance: Lance Tidwell, from the Austin, TX, area, has worked as a SQL Server DBA for the last 11 years. During his time as a DBA he has found his passion for all things SQL, but specifically for performance tuning. He has a life-long quest to always be learning new things; currently this quest has lead him to explore more about the Data Analytics/ Data Science areas, as well as working toward the Microsoft Professional Program Certificate in Data Science. During his spare time, he volunteers at his son's school as a member of Watch D.O.G.S. and as an off-ice official for the American Hockey League (AHL).
This document outlines a project timeline from May 2015 to December 2015. It details two phases - a mechanical phase from May to September and an electrical phase from May to December. Key milestones for each phase include material availability, testing completion, certification, production, and conditional release. The timeline provides specific target dates to track progress.
Project planning template editable in PowerPoint - wide screenOffice Timeline
The document outlines a project timeline that spans from August 2015 to March 2016. It is divided into several phases including project sourcing, readiness, development, testing and reviews, documentation, and adjustment. Key milestones and dates are provided for securing the budget, identifying a project manager, setting up certification, production beginning, analyzing results, and wrapping up the audit.
[CXL Live 16] How to Utilize Your Test Capacity? by Ton WesselingCXL
Ton Wesseling gave a presentation at ConversionXL Live in Austin on March 31st 2016 about utilizing test capacity. He discussed optimizing conversions through the ROAR model of risk, optimization, automation and re-thinking. Wesseling emphasized fully using a company's test capacity for impactful A/B tests and separating that capacity for IT releases, campaigns and behavioral learning. He advised celebrating failures to encourage risk-taking and continuous learning.
The document outlines an 8 milestone project plan from September to November 2015, including the dates for each milestone and 5 tasks with their scheduled dates. It promotes the Office Timeline PowerPoint add-in for automatically updating and customizing project timelines and Gantt charts within PowerPoint.
Forecasting using monte carlo simulationsDaniel Ploeg
In a combined meetup between the LimitedWiP Society Melbourne and the Leadership and Project Delivery group, this presentation on forecasting will help the maturity of conversations and catalyse change around predicting the likely outcome of project and product development knowledge work.
Editable PowerPoint Gantt chart timeline template for project managementOffice Timeline
This document contains a Gantt chart timeline showing 12 tasks of varying durations between June 2015 and February 2016. Key milestones are indicated at the start and end of the timeline as well as after tasks 3, 4, and 5. The timeline can be automatically updated and edited using the free Office Timeline PowerPoint add-in.
This document outlines a project timeline with 5 milestones from August 29 to October 3. It is divided into two phases, with phase 1 spanning 11 days and containing 3 sub-tasks ranging from 2 to 5 days, and phase 2 spanning 12 days and containing 4 sub-tasks from 3 to 5 days. The timeline template can be automatically updated and customized using the free Office Timeline PowerPoint add-in.
Outlining our training on high end compute (eg HPC) and energy efficient computing, tailored to you, covering CPU and emerging hardwares and a variety of software/languaues
Stop Flying Blind! Quantifying Risk with Monte Carlo SimulationSam McAfee
Product development is inherently risky. While lean and agile methods are praised for supporting rapid feedback from customers through experiments and continuous iteration, teams could do a lot better at prioritizing using basic modeling techniques from finance. This talk will focus on quantitative risk modeling when developing new products or services that do not have a well understood product/market fit scenario. Using modeling approaches like Monte Carlo simulations and Cost of Delay scenarios, combined with qualitative tools like the Lean Canvas and Value Dynamics, we will explore how lean innovation teams can bring scientific rigor back into their process.
ION Cape Town, 8 September 2015 - Three years ago on World IPv6 Launch, thousands of ISPs, home networking equipment manufacturers, and web companies around the world united to permanently enable IPv6 on their products and services. With the global IPv6 traffic at 5% and growing, Africa’s share of that IPv6 traffic is negligible. Yet IPv6 deployment is one of those initiatives that everyone agrees is merely important and will forever be at the mercy of other initiatives that are urgent. How do you change that? By using the proven methodology 4DX that will guarantee the IPv6 deployment project has a chance amidst the whirlwind of other urgent initiatives. This should certainly start moving up dial on IPv6 traffic in Africa.
This document discusses how scaling teams to support big data growth at Yelp can negatively impact deployment speed due to an exponential increase in the probability of failures as the number of developers increases. It proposes service-oriented architecture and focusing on mean time to recovery rather than just preventing failures as ways to mitigate these risks and maintain rapid iteration. Continuous delivery, reliable but not exhaustive testing, and treating all processes as distributed are also recommended to support scaling teams while preserving deployment speed.
The document discusses strategies for successfully deploying IPv6 despite competing priorities. It recommends having a business case, management champion, and execution framework. Specifically, it suggests focusing on lead measures like time spent researching IPv6 instead of lag measures like traffic percentage. Maintaining a scoreboard and weekly accountability meetings can help drive execution. Applying the "4 Disciplines" approach of focusing on the important, leveraging lead measures, maintaining engagement, and ensuring accountability can help solve resource and execution problems to ultimately deliver a successful IPv6 deployment.
Logging, Instrumentation, Dashboards and Alerts - for developersHenry Been
An introduction into monitoring & logging, for developers. Some theory, a discussion of what to monitor and what not and getting started implementing monitoring & logging using Microsoft Azure
1) The document discusses how human fallibility and increased development teams can lead to an exponential decay in the probability of successful deployments over time as the number of changes increases.
2) It recommends approaches like implementing a service-oriented architecture, focusing on mean time to recovery rather than just preventing failures, and establishing "DevOps deputies" to help mitigate this problem.
3) The key message is that organizations should embrace DevOps culture, tailor their approaches to their specific teams, plan for inevitable changes over time, and view components as distributed from the beginning.
This session will review the concept of WIP and explore in-depth the reasons for limiting WIP: enhancing focus, reducing cycle time, optimizing flow and making bottlenecks visible. We will give strategies for starting out with WIP limits and suggestions for what to do when a limit is reached. Finally, we'll put theory to practice by running a short, virtual simulation that all attendees can participate in.
Lean Kanban India 2016 | Stop fudging the numbers and Start Forecasting with ...LeanKanbanIndia
This document discusses forecasting techniques for software projects. It introduces Little's Law which relates the number of customers in a system to the arrival rate and time spent in the system. It notes that traditional "agile" forecasting is heuristic and prone to cognitive biases while stochastic forecasting uses statistical models based on historic data. Building an accurate stochastic model requires capturing factors like work in progress, cycle time, bugs and scope changes. The model is validated against history and used for Monte Carlo simulations to generate forecasts with an 85th percentile range. Reducing variability improves forecasts.
This document discusses alternatives to using team velocity as a metric for software development teams. It proposes measuring the frequency of delivering value to users through high value releases, prioritizing work that provides the best value for effort, and recognizing individuals who consistently deliver high value features. Specific metrics proposed include an L value batting average measuring weeks with high value releases, slugging percentage measuring value delivered, and a silver slugger award for top performers.
This document outlines a project timeline with 5 milestones from August 29 to October 3. It is divided into two phases, with phase 1 spanning 11 days and containing 4 sub-tasks of varying durations, and phase 2 spanning 12 days and containing 4 sub-tasks. The timeline also advertises a free PowerPoint add-in called Office Timeline that allows users to easily create and edit Gantt charts directly within PowerPoint.
Geek Sync | New Features in SQL Server That Will Change the Way You TuneIDERA Software
You can watch the replay for this Geek Sync webcast in the IDERA Resource Center: http://ow.ly/pAle50A5aoG
Since the new cardinality estimator was released in SQL Server 2014, every version on SQL Server has introduced new great features designed to help your queries run at max performance. In 2016, it was Query Store; in 2017, Adaptive Query Processing and Automatic Tuning have been introduced.
Join IDERA and Lance Tidwell as he explores these new features and how they can make your life easier as a DBA. Lance will also look at some of the pitfalls and potential issues that can arise from these new features. This is a special Geek Sync you will not want to miss!
About Lance: Lance Tidwell, from the Austin, TX, area, has worked as a SQL Server DBA for the last 11 years. During his time as a DBA he has found his passion for all things SQL, but specifically for performance tuning. He has a life-long quest to always be learning new things; currently this quest has lead him to explore more about the Data Analytics/ Data Science areas, as well as working toward the Microsoft Professional Program Certificate in Data Science. During his spare time, he volunteers at his son's school as a member of Watch D.O.G.S. and as an off-ice official for the American Hockey League (AHL).
This document outlines a project timeline from May 2015 to December 2015. It details two phases - a mechanical phase from May to September and an electrical phase from May to December. Key milestones for each phase include material availability, testing completion, certification, production, and conditional release. The timeline provides specific target dates to track progress.
Project planning template editable in PowerPoint - wide screenOffice Timeline
The document outlines a project timeline that spans from August 2015 to March 2016. It is divided into several phases including project sourcing, readiness, development, testing and reviews, documentation, and adjustment. Key milestones and dates are provided for securing the budget, identifying a project manager, setting up certification, production beginning, analyzing results, and wrapping up the audit.
[CXL Live 16] How to Utilize Your Test Capacity? by Ton WesselingCXL
Ton Wesseling gave a presentation at ConversionXL Live in Austin on March 31st 2016 about utilizing test capacity. He discussed optimizing conversions through the ROAR model of risk, optimization, automation and re-thinking. Wesseling emphasized fully using a company's test capacity for impactful A/B tests and separating that capacity for IT releases, campaigns and behavioral learning. He advised celebrating failures to encourage risk-taking and continuous learning.
The document outlines an 8 milestone project plan from September to November 2015, including the dates for each milestone and 5 tasks with their scheduled dates. It promotes the Office Timeline PowerPoint add-in for automatically updating and customizing project timelines and Gantt charts within PowerPoint.
Forecasting using monte carlo simulationsDaniel Ploeg
In a combined meetup between the LimitedWiP Society Melbourne and the Leadership and Project Delivery group, this presentation on forecasting will help the maturity of conversations and catalyse change around predicting the likely outcome of project and product development knowledge work.
Editable PowerPoint Gantt chart timeline template for project managementOffice Timeline
This document contains a Gantt chart timeline showing 12 tasks of varying durations between June 2015 and February 2016. Key milestones are indicated at the start and end of the timeline as well as after tasks 3, 4, and 5. The timeline can be automatically updated and edited using the free Office Timeline PowerPoint add-in.
This document outlines a project timeline with 5 milestones from August 29 to October 3. It is divided into two phases, with phase 1 spanning 11 days and containing 3 sub-tasks ranging from 2 to 5 days, and phase 2 spanning 12 days and containing 4 sub-tasks from 3 to 5 days. The timeline template can be automatically updated and customized using the free Office Timeline PowerPoint add-in.
Outlining our training on high end compute (eg HPC) and energy efficient computing, tailored to you, covering CPU and emerging hardwares and a variety of software/languaues
Stop Flying Blind! Quantifying Risk with Monte Carlo SimulationSam McAfee
Product development is inherently risky. While lean and agile methods are praised for supporting rapid feedback from customers through experiments and continuous iteration, teams could do a lot better at prioritizing using basic modeling techniques from finance. This talk will focus on quantitative risk modeling when developing new products or services that do not have a well understood product/market fit scenario. Using modeling approaches like Monte Carlo simulations and Cost of Delay scenarios, combined with qualitative tools like the Lean Canvas and Value Dynamics, we will explore how lean innovation teams can bring scientific rigor back into their process.
ION Cape Town, 8 September 2015 - Three years ago on World IPv6 Launch, thousands of ISPs, home networking equipment manufacturers, and web companies around the world united to permanently enable IPv6 on their products and services. With the global IPv6 traffic at 5% and growing, Africa’s share of that IPv6 traffic is negligible. Yet IPv6 deployment is one of those initiatives that everyone agrees is merely important and will forever be at the mercy of other initiatives that are urgent. How do you change that? By using the proven methodology 4DX that will guarantee the IPv6 deployment project has a chance amidst the whirlwind of other urgent initiatives. This should certainly start moving up dial on IPv6 traffic in Africa.
This document discusses how scaling teams to support big data growth at Yelp can negatively impact deployment speed due to an exponential increase in the probability of failures as the number of developers increases. It proposes service-oriented architecture and focusing on mean time to recovery rather than just preventing failures as ways to mitigate these risks and maintain rapid iteration. Continuous delivery, reliable but not exhaustive testing, and treating all processes as distributed are also recommended to support scaling teams while preserving deployment speed.
The document discusses strategies for successfully deploying IPv6 despite competing priorities. It recommends having a business case, management champion, and execution framework. Specifically, it suggests focusing on lead measures like time spent researching IPv6 instead of lag measures like traffic percentage. Maintaining a scoreboard and weekly accountability meetings can help drive execution. Applying the "4 Disciplines" approach of focusing on the important, leveraging lead measures, maintaining engagement, and ensuring accountability can help solve resource and execution problems to ultimately deliver a successful IPv6 deployment.
Logging, Instrumentation, Dashboards and Alerts - for developersHenry Been
An introduction into monitoring & logging, for developers. Some theory, a discussion of what to monitor and what not and getting started implementing monitoring & logging using Microsoft Azure
1) The document discusses how human fallibility and increased development teams can lead to an exponential decay in the probability of successful deployments over time as the number of changes increases.
2) It recommends approaches like implementing a service-oriented architecture, focusing on mean time to recovery rather than just preventing failures, and establishing "DevOps deputies" to help mitigate this problem.
3) The key message is that organizations should embrace DevOps culture, tailor their approaches to their specific teams, plan for inevitable changes over time, and view components as distributed from the beginning.
This session will review the concept of WIP and explore in-depth the reasons for limiting WIP: enhancing focus, reducing cycle time, optimizing flow and making bottlenecks visible. We will give strategies for starting out with WIP limits and suggestions for what to do when a limit is reached. Finally, we'll put theory to practice by running a short, virtual simulation that all attendees can participate in.
No Estimates at Scale in the Federal GovernmentAdam Parker
The document discusses experiments conducted by a federal government product team with no estimates. They switched from Scrum to Kanban, removed story pointing, and used discussion cards and flow metrics instead. This improved refinement discussions and allowed forecasting using cycle times. They later returned to Scrum and then gradually reintroduced pointing. Key lessons were that no estimates can work with a stable, high-trust team comfortable with the domain if refinement ensures stories are not too large.
The document discusses limiting work in progress (WIP) to improve productivity. Some key points:
1. Limiting WIP to 1-3 items leads to faster delivery, better quality, and less stress by avoiding multitasking. It also makes bottlenecks more visible.
2. Studies show multitasking is inefficient and can reduce productivity by 40% due to switching costs. Limiting WIP reduces context switching.
3. With too much WIP, teams spend most time waiting rather than working. Limiting WIP improves flow and enables faster response to changes.
This document discusses various aspects of DevOps practices and culture. It provides definitions of DevOps, discusses how organizations have implemented DevOps to significantly improve performance metrics like deployment frequency and lead times. It also addresses challenges like change approval boards, security and compliance, adopting an agile mindset, and shifting to see work as developing products rather than projects to better manage risk. Throughout, it emphasizes automating processes, reducing waste, collaborating across teams, and focusing on business outcomes over documentation and processes.
The document discusses process flows and their use in business process modeling. It provides examples of different types of process flows like AS-IS, TO-BE and activity flows. Basic symbols for process flows are explained along with tips for creating process flows, such as identifying stakeholders and drawing both simple and complex examples. The benefits of process flows include problem solving, process understanding and identifying areas for improvement.
Breakout session at MERL Tech 2018.
Agile - commonly used in the tech community - offers a number of sticky ideas and principles we can adapt in international development and MERL to improve how we work and support adaptive management.
In this breakout, we focus on three sticky ideas: creating and being guided by user stories, prioritization, and limiting WIP.
Project Planning | Project Plan In Excel With Gantt Chart | Project Managemen...Simplilearn
This presentation on project planning in Excel will help us understand the process of project planning concerning Excel. The video will explain the process of project management in Excel, elaborating on the reasons why we should use excel for project management. Then we will see the basics of a Gantt chart, along with understanding the process of making a Gantt chart in Excel. We will also see different Microsoft Excel templates, along with their features. Now, let us get started.
The below topics are explained in this project planning presentation:
1. What is a project plan?
2. Project management in Excel
3. Why use Microsoft Excel?
4. How to make a Gantt chart in Excel?
5. Microsoft Excel templates
PMP Certification Course Overview
The course covers new trends, emerging practices, tailoring considerations, and core competencies required of a Project Management professional. Placing a greater emphasis on strategic and business knowledge, this course also includes a new section on the role of the project manager in both large and small companies.
PMP Course Key Features:
- 35 contact hours/PDUs
- 8 industry case studies, 20 industry-based scenarios
- 6 hands-on projects, 7 simulation test papers (200 questions each)
Eligibility:
The PMP® certification is an essential professional requirement for senior project manager roles across all industries. The course is best suited for: Project Managers, Associate/Assistant Project Managers, Team Leads/Team Managers, Project Executives/Project Engineers, Software Developers, Any professional aspiring to be a Project Manager.
Pre-requisites:
You should have a secondary degree (i.e. high school diploma, associate’s degree or the global equivalent) with 7,500 hours leading and directing projects along with 35 hours of project management education.OR You should have a four-year degree with 4,500 hours leading and directing projects along with 35 hours of project management education.
Learn more at https://www.simplilearn.com/project-management/pmp-certification-training
The federal government loves modernizing software systems and it isn't wrong: stale, decaying software leads to major headaches and eventual catastrophe. Modernization efforts, however, have big risks and big failures.
There is an alternative: software renovation. That is improving, updating, and upgrading the software system one piece at a time while it continues to operate.
Dane has participated deeply in three US government modernization projects. Each project followed a pattern of pitfalls, scary "go-live" transitions, and unpleasant trade-offs.
Renovating legacy software is frequently a better option. The software system continues to gain functionality at the same time that its design and performance are improved.
Limiting work-in-progress, or WIP, is a core principle of Kanban, and is a common recommendation to teams using Scrum or other frameworks as well. Yet the idea that working on less can lead you to get more done seems to defy common sense. Even those who understand the reasons for limiting WIP can struggle with resistance from team members or leaders when putting the theory to practice.
This session will review the concept of WIP and explore in depth the reasons for limiting WIP: enhancing focus, reducing cycle time, optimizing flow and making bottlenecks visible. We will give strategies for starting out with WIP limits and suggestions for what to do when a limit is reached. Attendees will also participate in a short simulation that will illustrate the concepts in practice, and that attendees can use on their own projects to help overcome skepticism of WIP limits in their organizations.
This document summarizes how one agile team implements Scrum. It discusses how the team manages their product backlog, preparing and planning for sprints. The team focuses on getting work done over theoretical practices. They prioritize customer needs and concrete deliverables in the product backlog. Estimates are relative and in story points to focus on the work rather than timelines.
The document discusses agile estimation and planning techniques. It defines estimation as measuring the effort and time required to complete tasks and user stories. Some benefits of estimation include allowing effective decision making and prioritization. Techniques covered include relative estimation using story points, planning poker for estimating story points, and using velocity to estimate what a team can complete per sprint. The document also discusses agile planning at the release, sprint, and daily levels.
From Waterfall to Weekly Releases: A Case Study in using Evo and Kanban (2004...Tathagat Varma
The document describes how a company transitioned from a waterfall development process to a more agile process using evolutionary project management (Evo) and Kanban principles. They created a dedicated customer sustaining team using a cumulative hot fix process and weekly builds. This improved collaboration, reduced bugs and issues, increased customer satisfaction, and motivated the development team. The new process aligned well with Kanban principles of visualizing and limiting work in progress to improve flow.
Using Metrics for Fun, Developing with the KV Store + Javascript & News from ...Harry McLaren
We explore "Metrics, mstats and Me: Splunking Human Data” and also have some insights into the KV Store and javascript use in dashboards. We’ll also re-cover the conf18 updates for those who couldn’t attend our last session.
Optimization Direct: Introduction and recent case studiesAlkis Vazacopoulos
This document provides an overview of Optimization Direct, an IBM business partner that specializes in optimization software and consulting. It discusses Optimization Direct's experience implementing optimization technology for various industries. The document also summarizes Optimization Direct's product offerings, which focus on IBM ILOG CPLEX Optimization Studio. It then highlights several recent case studies where Optimization Direct helped customers solve scheduling, resource allocation, and pricing problems using analytics and optimization modeling approaches like MIP and heuristic algorithms. Finally, it shares an example of how Optimization Direct helped a retail client optimize markdown pricing and promotions to improve sales and margins.
The primary metric in an Agile project is whether working software actually exists, and is demonstrably suitable for its intended purpose. This is determined empirically, by demonstration, at the end of every single iteration and product increment
All teams and projects are encouraged to pivot most of their measuring-attention to this fact. All other metrics are subordinate to that objective and the overriding goal of keeping the focus on rapid delivery of quality, working software.
The document discusses the role and qualities of an effective Product Owner in Agile development. It describes key Product Owner activities like managing the Product Backlog, participating in ceremonies like Sprint Planning and Daily Standup, and working with stakeholders. It also provides an example of a potential Product Owner, Sara, and rates her qualifications. Finally, it poses some common questions about the Product Owner role and provides information about upcoming Agile training courses from Excella.
I love the smell of data in the morning (getting started with data science) ...Troy Magennis
Data Science 101 for software development. I know it misses the purist view of Data Science, but this is intended to get you started! First presented at Agile 2017 in Florida.
Similar to BA World Boston: Evening the Odds with Monte Carlo Project Forecasting (20)
Programming Foundation Models with DSPy - Meetup SlidesZilliz
Prompting language models is hard, while programming language models is easy. In this talk, I will discuss the state-of-the-art framework DSPy for programming foundation models with its powerful optimizers and runtime constraint system.
GraphRAG for Life Science to increase LLM accuracyTomaz Bratanic
GraphRAG for life science domain, where you retriever information from biomedical knowledge graphs using LLMs to increase the accuracy and performance of generated answers
GraphSummit Singapore | The Art of the Possible with Graph - Q2 2024Neo4j
Neha Bajwa, Vice President of Product Marketing, Neo4j
Join us as we explore breakthrough innovations enabled by interconnected data and AI. Discover firsthand how organizations use relationships in data to uncover contextual insights and solve our most pressing challenges – from optimizing supply chains, detecting fraud, and improving customer experiences to accelerating drug discoveries.
Infrastructure Challenges in Scaling RAG with Custom AI modelsZilliz
Building Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) systems with open-source and custom AI models is a complex task. This talk explores the challenges in productionizing RAG systems, including retrieval performance, response synthesis, and evaluation. We’ll discuss how to leverage open-source models like text embeddings, language models, and custom fine-tuned models to enhance RAG performance. Additionally, we’ll cover how BentoML can help orchestrate and scale these AI components efficiently, ensuring seamless deployment and management of RAG systems in the cloud.
Dr. Sean Tan, Head of Data Science, Changi Airport Group
Discover how Changi Airport Group (CAG) leverages graph technologies and generative AI to revolutionize their search capabilities. This session delves into the unique search needs of CAG’s diverse passengers and customers, showcasing how graph data structures enhance the accuracy and relevance of AI-generated search results, mitigating the risk of “hallucinations” and improving the overall customer journey.
Essentials of Automations: The Art of Triggers and Actions in FMESafe Software
In this second installment of our Essentials of Automations webinar series, we’ll explore the landscape of triggers and actions, guiding you through the nuances of authoring and adapting workspaces for seamless automations. Gain an understanding of the full spectrum of triggers and actions available in FME, empowering you to enhance your workspaces for efficient automation.
We’ll kick things off by showcasing the most commonly used event-based triggers, introducing you to various automation workflows like manual triggers, schedules, directory watchers, and more. Plus, see how these elements play out in real scenarios.
Whether you’re tweaking your current setup or building from the ground up, this session will arm you with the tools and insights needed to transform your FME usage into a powerhouse of productivity. Join us to discover effective strategies that simplify complex processes, enhancing your productivity and transforming your data management practices with FME. Let’s turn complexity into clarity and make your workspaces work wonders!
“An Outlook of the Ongoing and Future Relationship between Blockchain Technologies and Process-aware Information Systems.” Invited talk at the joint workshop on Blockchain for Information Systems (BC4IS) and Blockchain for Trusted Data Sharing (B4TDS), co-located with with the 36th International Conference on Advanced Information Systems Engineering (CAiSE), 3 June 2024, Limassol, Cyprus.
Goodbye Windows 11: Make Way for Nitrux Linux 3.5.0!SOFTTECHHUB
As the digital landscape continually evolves, operating systems play a critical role in shaping user experiences and productivity. The launch of Nitrux Linux 3.5.0 marks a significant milestone, offering a robust alternative to traditional systems such as Windows 11. This article delves into the essence of Nitrux Linux 3.5.0, exploring its unique features, advantages, and how it stands as a compelling choice for both casual users and tech enthusiasts.
Pushing the limits of ePRTC: 100ns holdover for 100 daysAdtran
At WSTS 2024, Alon Stern explored the topic of parametric holdover and explained how recent research findings can be implemented in real-world PNT networks to achieve 100 nanoseconds of accuracy for up to 100 days.
UiPath Test Automation using UiPath Test Suite series, part 5DianaGray10
Welcome to UiPath Test Automation using UiPath Test Suite series part 5. In this session, we will cover CI/CD with devops.
Topics covered:
CI/CD with in UiPath
End-to-end overview of CI/CD pipeline with Azure devops
Speaker:
Lyndsey Byblow, Test Suite Sales Engineer @ UiPath, Inc.
GraphSummit Singapore | The Future of Agility: Supercharging Digital Transfor...Neo4j
Leonard Jayamohan, Partner & Generative AI Lead, Deloitte
This keynote will reveal how Deloitte leverages Neo4j’s graph power for groundbreaking digital twin solutions, achieving a staggering 100x performance boost. Discover the essential role knowledge graphs play in successful generative AI implementations. Plus, get an exclusive look at an innovative Neo4j + Generative AI solution Deloitte is developing in-house.
Why You Should Replace Windows 11 with Nitrux Linux 3.5.0 for enhanced perfor...SOFTTECHHUB
The choice of an operating system plays a pivotal role in shaping our computing experience. For decades, Microsoft's Windows has dominated the market, offering a familiar and widely adopted platform for personal and professional use. However, as technological advancements continue to push the boundaries of innovation, alternative operating systems have emerged, challenging the status quo and offering users a fresh perspective on computing.
One such alternative that has garnered significant attention and acclaim is Nitrux Linux 3.5.0, a sleek, powerful, and user-friendly Linux distribution that promises to redefine the way we interact with our devices. With its focus on performance, security, and customization, Nitrux Linux presents a compelling case for those seeking to break free from the constraints of proprietary software and embrace the freedom and flexibility of open-source computing.
Let's Integrate MuleSoft RPA, COMPOSER, APM with AWS IDP along with Slackshyamraj55
Discover the seamless integration of RPA (Robotic Process Automation), COMPOSER, and APM with AWS IDP enhanced with Slack notifications. Explore how these technologies converge to streamline workflows, optimize performance, and ensure secure access, all while leveraging the power of AWS IDP and real-time communication via Slack notifications.
For the full video of this presentation, please visit: https://www.edge-ai-vision.com/2024/06/building-and-scaling-ai-applications-with-the-nx-ai-manager-a-presentation-from-network-optix/
Robin van Emden, Senior Director of Data Science at Network Optix, presents the “Building and Scaling AI Applications with the Nx AI Manager,” tutorial at the May 2024 Embedded Vision Summit.
In this presentation, van Emden covers the basics of scaling edge AI solutions using the Nx tool kit. He emphasizes the process of developing AI models and deploying them globally. He also showcases the conversion of AI models and the creation of effective edge AI pipelines, with a focus on pre-processing, model conversion, selecting the appropriate inference engine for the target hardware and post-processing.
van Emden shows how Nx can simplify the developer’s life and facilitate a rapid transition from concept to production-ready applications.He provides valuable insights into developing scalable and efficient edge AI solutions, with a strong focus on practical implementation.
In the rapidly evolving landscape of technologies, XML continues to play a vital role in structuring, storing, and transporting data across diverse systems. The recent advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) present new methodologies for enhancing XML development workflows, introducing efficiency, automation, and intelligent capabilities. This presentation will outline the scope and perspective of utilizing AI in XML development. The potential benefits and the possible pitfalls will be highlighted, providing a balanced view of the subject.
We will explore the capabilities of AI in understanding XML markup languages and autonomously creating structured XML content. Additionally, we will examine the capacity of AI to enrich plain text with appropriate XML markup. Practical examples and methodological guidelines will be provided to elucidate how AI can be effectively prompted to interpret and generate accurate XML markup.
Further emphasis will be placed on the role of AI in developing XSLT, or schemas such as XSD and Schematron. We will address the techniques and strategies adopted to create prompts for generating code, explaining code, or refactoring the code, and the results achieved.
The discussion will extend to how AI can be used to transform XML content. In particular, the focus will be on the use of AI XPath extension functions in XSLT, Schematron, Schematron Quick Fixes, or for XML content refactoring.
The presentation aims to deliver a comprehensive overview of AI usage in XML development, providing attendees with the necessary knowledge to make informed decisions. Whether you’re at the early stages of adopting AI or considering integrating it in advanced XML development, this presentation will cover all levels of expertise.
By highlighting the potential advantages and challenges of integrating AI with XML development tools and languages, the presentation seeks to inspire thoughtful conversation around the future of XML development. We’ll not only delve into the technical aspects of AI-powered XML development but also discuss practical implications and possible future directions.
UiPath Test Automation using UiPath Test Suite series, part 6DianaGray10
Welcome to UiPath Test Automation using UiPath Test Suite series part 6. In this session, we will cover Test Automation with generative AI and Open AI.
UiPath Test Automation with generative AI and Open AI webinar offers an in-depth exploration of leveraging cutting-edge technologies for test automation within the UiPath platform. Attendees will delve into the integration of generative AI, a test automation solution, with Open AI advanced natural language processing capabilities.
Throughout the session, participants will discover how this synergy empowers testers to automate repetitive tasks, enhance testing accuracy, and expedite the software testing life cycle. Topics covered include the seamless integration process, practical use cases, and the benefits of harnessing AI-driven automation for UiPath testing initiatives. By attending this webinar, testers, and automation professionals can gain valuable insights into harnessing the power of AI to optimize their test automation workflows within the UiPath ecosystem, ultimately driving efficiency and quality in software development processes.
What will you get from this session?
1. Insights into integrating generative AI.
2. Understanding how this integration enhances test automation within the UiPath platform
3. Practical demonstrations
4. Exploration of real-world use cases illustrating the benefits of AI-driven test automation for UiPath
Topics covered:
What is generative AI
Test Automation with generative AI and Open AI.
UiPath integration with generative AI
Speaker:
Deepak Rai, Automation Practice Lead, Boundaryless Group and UiPath MVP
AI 101: An Introduction to the Basics and Impact of Artificial IntelligenceIndexBug
Imagine a world where machines not only perform tasks but also learn, adapt, and make decisions. This is the promise of Artificial Intelligence (AI), a technology that's not just enhancing our lives but revolutionizing entire industries.
Building Production Ready Search Pipelines with Spark and MilvusZilliz
Spark is the widely used ETL tool for processing, indexing and ingesting data to serving stack for search. Milvus is the production-ready open-source vector database. In this talk we will show how to use Spark to process unstructured data to extract vector representations, and push the vectors to Milvus vector database for search serving.
Cosa hanno in comune un mattoncino Lego e la backdoor XZ?Speck&Tech
ABSTRACT: A prima vista, un mattoncino Lego e la backdoor XZ potrebbero avere in comune il fatto di essere entrambi blocchi di costruzione, o dipendenze di progetti creativi e software. La realtà è che un mattoncino Lego e il caso della backdoor XZ hanno molto di più di tutto ciò in comune.
Partecipate alla presentazione per immergervi in una storia di interoperabilità, standard e formati aperti, per poi discutere del ruolo importante che i contributori hanno in una comunità open source sostenibile.
BIO: Sostenitrice del software libero e dei formati standard e aperti. È stata un membro attivo dei progetti Fedora e openSUSE e ha co-fondato l'Associazione LibreItalia dove è stata coinvolta in diversi eventi, migrazioni e formazione relativi a LibreOffice. In precedenza ha lavorato a migrazioni e corsi di formazione su LibreOffice per diverse amministrazioni pubbliche e privati. Da gennaio 2020 lavora in SUSE come Software Release Engineer per Uyuni e SUSE Manager e quando non segue la sua passione per i computer e per Geeko coltiva la sua curiosità per l'astronomia (da cui deriva il suo nickname deneb_alpha).
Cosa hanno in comune un mattoncino Lego e la backdoor XZ?
BA World Boston: Evening the Odds with Monte Carlo Project Forecasting
1. Evening the Odds:
Monte Carlo Forecasting
Hunter Tammaro / @htammaro
excella.com | @excellaco
2. excella.com | @excellaco
Learning Objectives
• What a Monte Carlo forecast is
• How the technique illustrates Agile
concepts
• How Monte Carlo is compatible with
Agile
6. excella.com | @excellaco
GettingStarted
• Team funded
for one year
• Only high-level,
long-term goals
• Built a“releasable” product over a few
months
• Started to improve ad-hoc,based on
feedback
9. excella.com | @excellaco
• Estimate allbacklog items
• Add up to get the total backlog size
• Divide by average velocity
• That’syour release date!
• Thatisyour release date, right?
Forecasting with
Averages
10. excella.com | @excellaco
• How long did forecasting take?
• How accurate is the forecast?
• How sure are you?
• What happens if you miss the forecast?
BUT…
11. excella.com | @excellaco
Determine a range of future
outcomes and their probabilities
based onrepeated, random
sampling of existingdata
Enter the Monte Carlo
method
18. excella.com | @excellaco
Gather Data
• Measure the variability in what you’re
trying topredict
• Takttimes –the time between completed
PBIs
• Takt accounts foractual output of the
whole team
19. excella.com | @excellaco
Gather Data
For software teams, measure takt in weekdays between completed items
M T W T F M T WS S
3 days 1 day
0 days
1 day
2 days
20. excella.com | @excellaco
Run one simulation
Randomly choose takttimes
for each item in your backlog
Add up the
total time
PBI Takt
1
2 1
3 3
4 0
5 1
6 2
PBI Takt
7
8
9
10
11
12
Total
Measured
Simulated
3
2
1
0
1
3
10
21. excella.com | @excellaco
Run a lot more simulations
Repeat a few dozen
times…
PBI Takt
7 1
8 0
9 0
10 3
11 0
12 2
Total 6
PBI Takt
7 3
8 2
9 1
10 3
11 3
12 3
Total 15
PBI Takt
7 1
8 3
9 3
10 1
11 3
12 0
Total 11
PBI Takt
7 3
8 3
9 3
10 3
11 1
12 0
Total 13
PBI Takt
7 3
PBI Takt
7 1
PBI Takt
7 2
PBI Takt
7 2
22. excella.com | @excellaco
Results
Count the number of simulations of a
given duration
Determine
cumulative percentages
Days N Runs Running %
0-4 4 4%
5-6 24 28%
7-8 27 55%
9-10 24 79%
11-12 15 94%
13-14 5 99%
15+ 1 100%
23. excella.com | @excellaco
And graph it
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
0-4 5-6 7-8 9-10 11-12 13-14 15+
Days
N Runs Cumulative %
25. excella.com | @excellaco
A simple forecasting tool
Input tab: takt times, start
date, size of forecasted
backlog
26. excella.com | @excellaco
A simple forecasting tool
Simulation tab:
simulated PBIs and
their takt times, totals
for each simulated
backlog
27. excella.com | @excellaco
A simple forecasting tool
Results tab: Distribution of
simulations by date range
28. excella.com | @excellaco
You will need…
• A phone with the Google Sheets or
MS Excel app
• Or a laptop
• Or a neighbor with one of the above
Conference Wifi:
SSID: MCTGuest
Password: MCT2019Guest
29. excella.com | @excellaco
Monte Carlo activity
• Sheets: duplicate the spreadsheet
Web: File > Make a copy
Mobile: menu > Share & export
> Make a copy
• Excel: download a copy
• Play with the parameters and see how
the predictions change
https://cutt.ly/
montecarlo
30. excella.com | @excellaco
Things to try
• Add more input takt times in the same range of values
• Replace some of the input takt times to use a broader range of
values
• Replace just one input takt time with an outlier
31. excella.com | @excellaco
• What do you notice about your
forecasts?
• When could you have used this
on a project?
• How could you use it on your
current project?
• What would you need to start
using this technique?
Discuss with
a partner
36. excella.com | @excellaco
• Understand how sure
we are that we’ll finish on
time
• Explicitly
acknowledges risk
• Tailor the forecast
you communicate to
your audience
Uncertainty
37. excella.com | @excellaco
Release planning
Gave us the information we
needed to plan a release
Made the significance of good
prioritization more obvious
38. excella.com | @excellaco
Pace setting
• Understand impact of scope changes
throughout the project
• Gave us a better feel for our status than
“red/yellow/green”
• Easy to update once created
39. excella.com | @excellaco
Tracking over time
10/27/18
12/16/18
2/4/19
3/26/19
5/15/19
7/4/19
8/23/19
8/18/18 9/7/18 9/27/18 10/17/18 11/6/18 11/26/18 12/16/18 1/5/19
forecastcompletedate
date of simulation
forecast evolution
50% confidence 80% confidence 95% confidence
42. excella.com | @excellaco
The usual suspects
Planning is guessing
• Don’t mistake math
for certainty
• Even if you’re 80% sure,
you’re wrong 1 in 5 times
You need historical data
• Take a few weeks to
track if you need to
• A “gut” estimate may get
you over this hump
43. excella.com | @excellaco
The past dictates the future
Will work be completed at the
same rate?
• Keep the team clear of
impediments
• Keep team membership
consistent
Will work items be the same
size?
• Keep an eye on story
splitting and estimation
• Discuss when work items
are unusually large
44. excella.com | @excellaco
What are we building?
Does the backlog we’re simulating adequately
represent the project?
• Build in a buffer of nice-to-haves so you have features to trade
out if you need to
• Adjust your projected backlog using historical data
46. excella.com | @excellaco
Use the Monte Carlo technique to
predict the size of your backlog:
• Create epics for the
entire product
• Break a handful into stories
• Use Monte Carlo to model story
counts for the others
Use Monte Carlo again to simulate
the simulated backlog
Double
Monte Carlo
47. excella.com | @excellaco
• Estimate the PBIs you can
complete by a date, not the
date to complete the PBIs
• Choose simulated times until
you hit your forecast date
• Useful for fixed timelines
Fixed-Date
Monte Carlo
Average velocity per sprint?
Average throughput per sprint?
Average takt time?
Others…?
Plan releases and related activities
Plan when to take on future projects
Project budgeting and staffing decisions
Others…?
Wanted to know when to go live to help roll out public engagement
We needed a forecast!
Probably not! Our estimates that far out are really bad, and only gives you one day. What are the odds you deliver on that day?
Centuries old, but took off in 1940s as computers came into use
One of the first Monte Carlo algorithms ran on the ENIAC!
Especially useful for modeling random processes or those with high uncertainty
Examples on individual slides: weather forecast, retirement
“It’s hard to make predictions, especially about the future” – Yogi Berra (?)
Weather forecasting uses Monte Carlo
Financial planning uses Monte Carlo
Here is a Monte Carlo forecast being used to track Godzilla.
Let’s step through the process!
We’re predicting a date, so we’ll use takt time, but we’ll look at other possibilities later
Cycle time looks at time to complete an individual item, not the rate at which the team works through the backlog
Takt times roll up a lot of other factors in variability – impediments, vacations, etc
For software teams this is probably in weekdays
Emphasize: we are using takt times, not point estimates or other – that’s rolled up in time
How many times? Hard to say, because it depends on your inputs and the size of the backlog you’re trying to simulate, but in general, more runs will get you more precision in your results.
There are a few approaches and even academic papers that attempt to find a formula for the ideal number of runs. But nowadays, computers are fast enough that you can just add more and more runs until you get a reasonable-looking output.
Percentages are cumulative
The graph is a good way to tell if you have enough simulations – this one has a pretty smooth graph with a nice recognizable bell curve. If it’s jumping all over the place, that’s a tell that you need more simulations.
Grouping the outputs like we have here – rather than single days – is an easy way to smooth out a curve without having to add simulations.
Point of this activity: make it very simple, to demystify it; make it clear how it works, so you know how to adapt it yourself; make it useable on a phone
Tripling the number of inputs doesn’t really affect the outcome! From Adam Yuret’s talk on Monday: you have a decent sense of the range of inputs after just seven samples.
Broader range of inputs leads to broader range of outputs – obvious, but stresses the value of consistent sizing for enhancing predictability
Adding just one outlier is enough to push out your median timeline, but also adds a “long tail,” making it take longer and longer to add certainty
Need to start this section by about 3:38 pm (10-12 mins left)
Turned out the devs’ gut estimate lined up with the “most likely” date, but with just a 50/50 chance of making it
Accepted that internally, but communicated the 80% date externally
Not just when we were releasing, but what to include – and what other factors to consider. If this is the date we’re feature complete, what else do we need to do? How much overlap? Validates the “gut check” from the devs
Watch the forecast change over time – going up or down as the team gets faster or slower, or as the backlog evolves; cone of possibility narrowing as the team gets more reliable, or as real time closes in on the prediction
Another view
Will the team keep working at roughly the same rate?
Will PBIs be broken down to roughly the same size?
No PO so longer stories; shifts after she starts and we start doing feedback
New Agile teams not as good at breaking things down, but get better
In both cases, use recent data, not necessarily more, to make sure it’s accurate
Mixture of refining stories and scope expansion
If you don’t have a well-developed backlog, or any backlog, use Double Monte Carlo to forecast what the ultimate size will be
Useful for fixed-date events, like trade shows or prescheduled releases