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7 ways to track lead-time
Paulo Caroli Agile Coach
pcaroli@thoughtworks.com
Twitter: @paulocaroli
Agenda
• Flow numbers at my bar
• 7 Ways to track lead time
• Q&A
Flow numbers at my bar
WIP
• The number of bottles in the bar. Bottles
that have been opened, but are not yet
empty.
Lead time
• The time between the bottle is added to
the bar and the bottle comes out of the
bar (empty).
Cycle time
• The time between two successive empty
bottles leaving the bar
Throughput
• The rate at which bottles are passing through
the bar.
Batch size
• The size of the bottles.
My bar…
I was really interested in
measuring a whiskey bottle
average lead time in my bar...
“The average number of work
items in a stable system is equal
to their average completion rate,
multiplied by their average time
in the system.”
John Little, 1961
WIP = Throughput x Lead time
Please help me out...
Please help me out...
12 bottles...
an average of 6 bottles per
year…
?
What is the average lead time
for a bottle of whiskey?
(a) 2 months
(b) 3 months
(c) 6 months
(d) 1 year
(e) 2 years
What is the average lead time for
a bottle of whiskey?
WIP = Throughput x Lead time
WIP = Throughput x Lead time
12 b= 6 b / year x Lead time
WIP = Throughput x Lead time
12 b= 6 b / year x Lead time
Lead time = 2 years
Little’s law math
WIP = Throughput x Lead time
12 b= 6 b / year x Lead time
Lead time = 2 years
WIP = Throughput x Lead time1
Visual repesentation for SW
Developmemnt work...
Doing DoneTo Do
10
5
9
31
18
17
21
4
7
5
1
12
John
Suzy
Paul
Amy
Doing DoneTo Do
10
5
9
31
18
17
21
4
7
5
1
12
John
Suzy
Paul
Amy
Lead Time
10 10Day 1
Day 6
Write on card
Banana peal
Chickenpox
Story tracking graph
Little’s Law
Story Tracking
Little’s Law
Control Chart
Control Chart
Control Chart
Cummulative Flow Diagram
Doing
(Limit) DoneTo Do
10
5
9
31
18
17
21
4
7
5
1
12
John
Suzy
Paul
Amy
WIP
Lead Time
WIP
Lead Time
Lead Time
Cumulative Flow Diagram
Let’s build these graphs together!
61
Story #
time
Lead time
time
Work
time
66
Functionality
time
67
Functionality
time
Story #
time
time
Lead time
Work
time
Work
time
72
Functionality
time
Story #
time
time
Lead time
Work
time
Work
time
77
Functionality
time
4
Story #
time
time
Lead time
Work
time
Work
time
Agenda
• Flow numbers at my bar
• 7 Ways to track lead time
• Q&A
WIP = Throughput x Lead time1
Little’s Law
Control Chart
Lead Time
Cumulative Flow Diagram
7 Ways to track lead-time
Paulo Caroli Agile Coach
pcaroli@thoughtworks.com
Twitter: @paulocaroli
Paulo Caroli Agile Coach
pcaroli@thoughtworks.com
Twitter: @paulocaroli
Thank you!
Questions?
feedback please: @paulocaroli
www.OptimizingTheFlow.com
Question / Example
Planned and Planning:
velocity versus lead time
92
93
Functionality
4
2
8
8
2
4
8
4
Total Scope: 40Total Scope: 40
If all work could be
started at the same time...
94
Product Backlog
95
Functionality
time
The team has 3 pairs of engineers,
and dependent Stories
(swim lanes)
96
97
time
98
Functionality
time
Now looking at Sprints
99
100
Functionality
time
sp 1sp 1 sp 2sp 2 sp 3sp 3
101
Functionality
time
4
2
8
8
2
4
8
4
sp 1sp 1 sp 2sp 2 sp 3sp 3
Let’s go back in time
and compare planned and actual
102
Planned
103
Functionality
4
2
8
8
2
4
8
4
Total Scope: 40 points
1 Release of 3 sprints
Expected velocity:
10 points for Sprint 1
15 points for Sprint 2 and 3
Total Scope: 40 points
1 Release of 3 sprints
Expected velocity:
10 points for Sprint 1
15 points for Sprint 2 and 3
104
Functionality
time
sp 1sp 1 sp 2sp 2 sp 3sp 3
Velocity (planned)
10
15 15
105
Functionality
time
sp 1sp 1 sp 2sp 2 sp 3sp 3
Velocity (planned)
10
15 15
106
Functionality
time
sp 1sp 1 sp 2sp 2 sp 3sp 3
Burn Up (planned)
10
25
40
Actual...
107
108
Functionality
time
4
2
sp 1sp 1 sp 2sp 2 sp 3sp 3
109
Functionality
time
4
2
sp 1sp 1 sp 2sp 2 sp 3sp 3
110
Functionality
time
4
2
sp 1sp 1 sp 2sp 2 sp 3sp 3
Planned: 10
10
111
Functionality
time
4
2
sp 1sp 1 sp 2sp 2 sp 3sp 3
Finished: 6
10
6
112
Functionality
time
sp 1sp 1 sp 2sp 2 sp 3sp 3
Burn Up (planned)
10
25
40
planned
actual
6
That Sprint review meeting...
113
114
Functionality
time
4
2
sp 1sp 1 sp 2sp 2 sp 3sp 3
8
2
115
Functionality
time
4
2
8
8
2
4
8
4
sp 1sp 1 sp 2sp 2 sp 3sp 3
10
15 15
6
18 16
116
Functionality
time
sp 1sp 1 sp 2sp 2 sp 3sp 3
Burn Up
10
25
40
6
24
planned
actual
Using lead time instead...
117
Story #
time
Lead time
time
120
Functionality
time
4
2
8
8
2
4
8
4
sp 1sp 1 sp 2sp 2 sp 3sp 3
121
Functionality
time
sp 1sp 1 sp 2sp 2 sp 3sp 3
Story #
time
time
Lead time
124
Functionality
time
sp 1sp 1 sp 2sp 2 sp 3sp 3
Story #
time
S
time
Lead time
127
Functionality
time
4
sp 1sp 1 sp 2sp 2 sp 3sp 3
Story #
time
S
M
L
time
Lead time
What about looking at the lead time
numbers instead of velocity?
130
Planning
131
Functionality
4
2
8
8
2
4
8
4
Total Scope: 8 Stories
On day 6 out of 15:
3 Stories are done, 2 are in
progress; 3 to go
Avg lead time = 5 days and
the team work on 3 stories in
parallel
Total Scope: 8 Stories
On day 6 out of 15:
3 Stories are done, 2 are in
progress; 3 to go
Avg lead time = 5 days and
the team work on 3 stories in
parallel
done
In
progress
next
Will we make it?
Answer based on lead time: yes, we
should finish all stories by day 15
132
Answer based on velocity: we need to increate the
team velocity, otherwise we will not finish all 40
story points by day 15
vs.
Question
What about using lead time and
estimates?
133
You can get average per story size
134
S
M
L
S
L
M
L
M
time
Lead time
S
M
L
S
L
M
L
M
time
Lead time
Or average for lead time (if you are
already over extimates)
137
Control Chart
Question
How do i visualize cycle time?
139
S
M
L
S
L
M
L
M
Cycle timeCycle time
time
Lead time

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7 Ways To Track Lead-Time