Mariella Marzano (FR) and Mike Dunn (FR)

1. WP2: Feasibility analyses and
development of ‘best practice’ criteria
Social Science: Mariella Marzano & Mike Dunn
Economics: Gregory Valatin& Colin Price
Nursery engagement: Tim Pettitt
Plant health researchers: Alexandra Schlenzig, Jane Barbrook
& Ana Pérez-Sierra

2. 30/06/20172
Social and Economic research
Three key parts:
i) Social analysis to assess
applicability of best practice
criteria
ii) Cost-benefit analysis of
introducing ‘best practice’
iii) Developing ‘best practice’ criteria
to underpin guidelines for an
accreditation scheme
Responsibilities:
Mariella: WP2 leader and carrying out social research
Gregory: Leading economic research within WP2
Mike: Social researcher
Tim: Assisting with social research esp. nursery
engagement
Colin: Economist

3. 30/06/20173
Milestones and outputs
Month 6 – Map stakeholder networks
Month 12 – Interim report on
stakeholder values and practices
Month 24– Interim report on
stakeholder attitudes towards
accreditation
Month 24 – Report on consumer
survey
Month 30 – Contribute findings into
accreditation framework
Month 34 – Final report on nursery
practices and feasibility of future
management options

4. WP research
Social analysis to assess applicability of best practice
criteria
Objectives
i. Stakeholder mapping of nursery sector – forest nurseries,
horticulture retail, wholesale nurseries etc.
ii. Research into existing values, experiences and practices on
disease effects and management
iii. Assess attitudes towards accreditation scheme
30/06/20174

5. Methods & themes cont…
• Wider industry focus groups
Feasibility of identified future management options;
benefits/barriers of an accreditation scheme
Minimum of 6 focus groups linked to networking events
• Consumer Survey
Exploring plant buying habits (what, where, how many…);
knowledge and awareness of tree pest and diseases; perceived
benefits (or not) of buying accredited plants; Willingness to pay
Likely to be online sampling, nationally representative
30/06/20175

6. Progress with context building
Context building:
i. Nursery visits with WP1 team (sampling)
ii. Interviews with EAP members
• Biggest threats in plant health
• Mechanisms for trade or exchange in plants (informal and formal) How do
they work?
• Role nurseries play in contributing or mitigating pest and disease threats
• Are there other more serious contributors?
• Key challenges that nurseries face in becoming biosecure (e.g.
funding/staffing/resources/knowledge)
• Effectiveness of policies to deal with disease threats
• What issues do you think social research should be addressing?
30/06/20176

7. Plans: Interviews at nurseries
From June 2017…
Interviews and participant observation with
nurseries (some data via WP1)
• Location within supply chain
• Perspectives on disease threats
• Current pest and disease management
and links to existing beliefs, values and
experiences
• Governance and policy tools and wider
influences on decision-making e.g.
knowledge networks, business model
• Key areas where nurseries are most and
least able to change;
• Perspectives on disease management for
future
• Willingness to join accreditation
scheme and what this should look like.
30/06/20177

8. 30/06/20178
• Plant-buying ‘public’ (online survey) – 1500 people
• Questionnaire developed and sent for comments to: WP2 ethics
committee, project team, expert panel, HTA (no comments)
• Online survey piloted and completed by Toluna
Plans:
• Shorter online surveys developed for
landscapers, nurseries, garden centres
(through Smart survey)
• Contact made with NT, RHS, Dobbies,
Wyevale… will try BALI, APL (Association of
Professional Landscapers), SGD (Society
of Garden Designers), Large superstores)
• Need to develop one for forestry?
Progress - Consumer survey completed

9. 30/06/20179

10. 30/06/20174
Consumer survey - public
Plant buying habits, perceptions of seller’s biosecurity,
attitudes towards accreditation,
Survey development, testing, ethics committee review
19 Qs (+ demographics) administered via an online
platform through Toluna Analytics
1500 respondents from a representative target population.
Filter question employed
Completed April 2017….analysis is ongoing!

11. Demographics
30/06/201711
Demographic
Respondents
(%)
2011 Census
(%)
Male 49 49
Female 51 51
18‐24 years old 4 12
25‐34 10 17
35‐44 12 18
45‐54 18 18
55‐64 23 15
65+ 34 21
North East 5 4
North West 12 11
Yorks/Humberside 10 8
East Midlands 8 9
West Midlands 9 7
East 9 9
London 8 8
South East 15 14
South West 11 13
Wales 5 5
Scotland 7 8
Northern Ireland 2 3
57% of
the
sample
are aged
55+ years
old
75% are

12. 30/06/201712
Sources for Obtaining Plants

13. Frequency of Obtaining
30/06/201713
(per
year) (n) 311
50
103
130
164
288
311
435
544
704
844
734
1212

14. Quantity from Sources
30/06/201714
# of responses

15. Deciding where to buy plants
30/06/201715

16. Deciding which plants to buy
30/06/201716

17. P&D Awareness
30/06/201717
Awareness about the
threats to British trees
and woodlands from
newly introduced pests
and diseases

18. 30/06/201718
Awareness (2)

19. Pest and Disease Risk
30/06/201719
Perceived risk in regards to introducing new P&Ds

20. Accredited/certified purchases
30/06/201720
Fair
trade
chocolat
e
Fair trade
coffee
Organic
produce
(e.g. Soil
Associatio
Red
tractor
produce

21. Why/why not buy accredited?
30/06/201721
(%)

22. Accreditation for plant sellers?
30/06/201722
(%)

23. Economics
Range Mean
Willingness to make
additional travel for
accredited plants (miles
each way)
160 miles
(0 to 160)
26.12 miles
Willingness to pay a
premium for accredited
plants (%)
94%
(0 to 94)
18.43
30/06/201723
Current annual spend on plants ranges from £10 - £2500,
with a mean average spend of £100.65
In the event of accreditation being introduced…
45% likely/very likely to travel further to buy plants from
an accredited source
39% willing to pay more for plants from an accredited
source

24. Further Analysis
Are positive attitudes towards accreditation
associated with…
- Greater knowledge of P&D (e.g. Phytophthora)
- Existing accred./cert. product purchasing
behaviour
- Number of plants obtained
- Types of source from which plants are obtained
- Demographic factors (age, gender, region)
30/06/201724

25. Next steps
• Consumer surveys
- General public (1500+)
- Foresters
- Landscapers
• Nursery & Garden centre
surveys
30/06/201725

26. 30/06/201726

27. HTA assurance scheme
• Raoul Curtis and Anna Cook (HTA)
• Aim is to have a simple system that a range
of nurseries will buy-in
• Exploring ways to market the standard
• Long-term aim to make it an international
standard
• 10 pilot nurseries that use a variety of
standards (or not)
• WP2 to follow the process and
interview participating nurseries on:
• Aspects of management and attitudes
towards plant health threats
• Standards currently used and perspectives
on proposed standards
• Perceptions/experiences of opportunities
and challenges with joining the assurance
scheme
30/06/201727

28. Economic Analysis
Cost-benefit analysis of nursery accreditation options
Objectives
• to undertake an appraisal of the costs and benefits of options
for developing best practice in UK nurseries to mitigate risks of
further Phytophthora introduction and spread:
 from UK nurseries’ perspective
 from the perspective of society as a whole
30/06/201728

29. Progressing economic analysis
• Reviewing available information on costs and benefits of other
nursery accreditation schemes (June: 2d);
• Reviewing available information on potential impacts of:
• new phytophthoras entering the UK and associated work on risk/economic
impact scenarios linked to UK plant health risk register (July: 1d);
• not introducing nursery best practice and on associated risk/economic
impact and cost scenarios of disease spread (July: 1d);
• Liaising with Colin Price on information requirements for
running the CARBROD model (August: 0.5d);
• Firming up information needed on costs and benefits of
accreditation and liaising with colleagues working on WP2(i)
to ensure information needed is obtained from the WP2(i)
interviews with nurseries (September: 0.5d)
• Firming up additional information requirements and agreeing
at the autumn meeting information needed for the economic
analysis to be provided by others in the project (September -
October: 2.5d incl meeting);
30/06/201729

30. Basic questions for the team
1) Best practice accreditation scheme: details
• what exactly will the scheme focused upon in our study entail?
• e.g. assurance that stock entirely grown in UK from UK seed/plant material?
• what are the main categories of additional cost expected for nurseries?
• e.g. stock entirely grown in UK from UK seed/plant material more expensive than if imported
• additional infrastructure/capital investment?
• additional equipment running costs?
• additional labour costs?
• What time-scale is envisaged for introducing the scheme (or will the focus be
on a scheme already developed)?
• To what extent are nurseries expected to take up the scheme?
• E.g. all nurseries eventually?
• What time-scale is envisaged for uptake of the scheme
• E.g. exponential increase in uptake to full uptake over 10 years?
30/06/201730

31. Basic questions for the team
2) Defining the ‘Baseline’ :
• what will be the situation without the accreditation scheme?
• E.g. no nursery accreditation schemes (unrealistic as existing schemes)?
• A mix of existing schemes with gradually increasing coverage over time?
• What baseline risks over time are anticipated of:
• Introduction to the UK of the different new phytophthoras?
• Spread of the different existing phytophthoras in the UK?
• Introduction to the UK of other new pests and pathogens?
• Spread of existing pests and pathogens in the UK?
30/06/201731

32. Basic questions for the team
3) Impacts anticipated of nursery accreditation scheme
• what are the anticipated effects of introducing the best practice
nursery accreditation on the risks over time of:
• Introduction to the UK of new phytophthoras?
• Spread of existing phytophthoras in the UK?
• Introduction to the UK of other new pests and pathogens?
• Spread of existing pests and pathogens in the UK?
• What differences compared to the baseline risks are
anticipated over time and how will they be quantified?
• E.g. 90% reduction in risk of introduction of Phytophthora sp <x> in year y?
30/06/201732