Prophet is an open source tool from Facebook for forecasting time series data with multiple seasonal patterns. It is designed to be easy to use, with forecasts generated automatically without extensive tuning. The tool works best for time series data with hourly, daily or weekly observations spanning a few months to a year, and which exhibit clear seasonal patterns like day of week or time of year effects as well as irregular events like holidays. Prophet excels at incorporating reasonable assumptions and domain expertise without requiring specialized forecasting skills.

1. FB Prophet
Forecasting at scale
in/nikhilbaby

2. ❏ Forecasting tool available in Python and R open sourced by facebook.
(https://research.fb.com/prophet-forecasting-at-scale/)
❏ Philosophy:
❏ Completely automatic forecasting techniques can be brittle and they are often
too inflexible to incorporate useful assumptions or heuristics.
❏ Analysts who can produce high quality forecasts are quite rare because
forecasting is a specialized data science skill requiring substantial experience

3. ❏ Hourly, daily, or weekly observations with at least a few months (preferably a year) of history
❏ Strong multiple “human-scale” seasonalities: day of week and time of year
❏ Important holidays that occur at irregular intervals that are known in advance
❏ A reasonable number of missing observations
❏ Historical trend changes, for instance due to product launches or logging changes
Where Prophet shines

4. Demo