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Trends and Tendencies of Farmers’
Suicides in India
Presented By:
Shivalika Sood
Seminar Incharge:
Dr. KD Sharma
CREDIT SEMINAR (AGECON691)
on
1
Main issues for discussion
Introduction
Objectives
Methodology
Farmers’ Suicides Statistics
Reasons For Farmers’ Suicides
Conclusion
Suggestions
2
Introduction
3
“Once in your life you need
a doctor,
a lawyer,
a policeman,
but every day, three times a day, you need
a FARMER”
Brenda Schoepp
Who is a farmer?
A farmer is a person engaged
in agriculture and raises animals
for food or raw materials
 A farmer might own the farm
land or might work as a labourer
on land owned by others
In advance economies, a
farmer is usually a farm owner,
while employees of the farm are
known as farm workers
4
What is suicide ?
 The word Suicide
originates from Latin
word ‘suicidium’, which
means ‘to kill oneself’
 Suicide is the act of
intentionally causing
one's own death
 Common methods
include: hanging,
pesticide poisoning,
drowning, firearms, etc
5
Why should we talk about farmers’ suicides ?
 Agriculture sector has an important role in Indian
economy
 India’s population is 1.34 billion (World Bank, United
States Census Bureau, 2017)
 Agriculture provides the principal means of livelihood for
more than 55 per cent of India's population
 The share of agriculture and allied sector in GDP of India
is 15.4 per cent (Ministry of Statistics and Programme
implementation 2018-19)
6
Indian farmers in crisis
 Excessive dependence of a large section of population on
agriculture
 Declining size-class of holdings and an increasing
preponderance of marginal holdings along with poor returns
from cultivation
 Supply of credit from formal sources to the agricultural
sector is inadequate both in volume and outreach
 With changing technology and market conditions, the farmer
is increasingly being exposed to the uncertainties of the
product
7
Farmers’ Suicides in India
 In the 1990s India first time witnessed the cases of farmers’
suicides
 The first state where suicides were reported was
Maharashtra. Soon newspapers began to report similar
occurrences from Andhra Pradesh
 In the beginning it was believed that most of the suicides
were happening among the cotton growers, especially
those from Vidarbha
 The figures by the State Crime Records Bureau indicated
that it was not just the cotton farmer but farmers as a
professional category were suffering
8
Objectives
1. To know the status of farmers’ suicides in India
2. To identify the causal factors associated with
farmers’ suicides and suggest remedial measures
9
Methodology
The study is based on secondary data obtained from
different sources. The trend in farmers’ suicide was
estimated using exponential model for period 2001-2015.
Y = a.bt
where,
Y = Farmers’ suicides/Total suicides in the year t
a = Constant
b = Regression coefficient
t = Time variable from the estimated function
The compound growth rate was worked out by
CGR (r) = [Antilog (log b) -1] x 100
where, r = Compound growth rate
10
Contd….
Markov Chain Analysis:
The Markov chain process was used to study the dynamic
changes in the cropping pattern to comprehend the shift
in vulnerable states (Manwar and Nagpure 2017).
The programming formulation of this model is:
11
subject to
Yj = Xj *Pij + Uj
Pij > = 0
Contd….
• Uj = Dimension vector of random disturbances estimator
• Yj = Vectors of observations reflecting the proportions of jth
crop in time t
• Xj = matrix of realized values of the of jth crop in time t-1
• Pij = Vectors of unknown transition parameters to be
estimated showing shift of area from ith crop to jth crop
• Thus, the expected area of each crop during period t was
obtained by multiplying the area under crop in the previous
period (t-1) with the transitional probability matrix
12
Contd…
Vulnerability Index
• Vulnerability index is used to rank the different states in
terms of vulnerability of the problem. On a scale of 1-5
the highest score was given according to the importance
in determining vulnerability of a state. The highest rank I
was given to the parameter which was most vulnerable
and rank II was given to less vulnerable parameter and
so on. Then vulnerability index was calculated as
VI = ∑ Xij /N
Xij = Score given to ith parameter in jth state (1-5)
N= Total number of parameters
13
1. Status of farmers’ suicides in India
14
Percentage Distribution of Suicide Victims by Profession
Profession
Percentage share
in 2001
Percentage Share
in 2015
Professionals/Salaried
Persons
12.53 7.9
Students 5.00 6.7
House wives 19.84 16.7
Unemployed persons 9.33 8.2
Self-employed persons 7.36 9.1
Farming Sector 15.13 9.4
Daily wage earners 16.75 17.8
Retired persons 0.83 0.8
Other persons 13.07 23.4
Total 100 100
Source: NCRB Report-2015
15
Year Farmers’ suicides
Total
suicides
Farmers’ Suicides as % of total
suicides
2001 16415 108506 15.13
2002 17971 110417 16.27
2003 17164 110579 15.52
2004 18241 113697 16.04
2005 17131 113914 15.04
2006 17060 118112 14.44
2007 16632 122637 13.56
2008 16196 125017 12.96
2009 17368 127151 13.66
2010 15964 134599 11.86
2011 14027 135585 10.35
2012 13754 135445 10.15
2013 11772 134799 8.73
2014 12360 131666 9.39
2015 12602 133623 9.43
CGR
-2.74*
(0.45)
1.81*
(0.17)
Farmers’ Suicides and All Suicides in India, 2001-2015
* Significant at 1 per cent level Source: NCRB Report-2015
16
Year Farmers’ Suicides Total Farmers’
suicides
Male suicides
% of Total
Suicides
Male Female
2001 13829 2586 16415 84.25
2002 15308 2663 17971 85.18
2003 14701 2463 17164 85.65
2004 15929 2312 18241 87.33
2005 14973 2158 17131 87.40
2006 14664 2396 17060 85.96
2007 14509 2123 16632 87.24
2008 14145 2051 16196 87.34
2009 14951 2417 17368 86.08
2010 13592 2372 15964 85.14
2011 12071 1956 14027 86.06
2012 11951 1803 13754 86.89
2013 10489 1283 11772 89.10
2014 11180 1180 12360 90.45
2015 11584 1018 12602 91.92
Gender-wise farmers’ suicides 2001-2015
Source:
NCRB
Report-
2015
17
Top five states with higher share (%) of farmers’ suicides, 2015
States with lowest number of suicides were Manipur &
Mizoram (1) and Uttarakhand (2).
Source: NCRB Report-2015
581
(7.26%)
854
(10.66%)
1197
(16.96%)
1358
(14.95%)
3003
(37.50%)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
Madhya
Pradesh
Chattisgarh Karnataka Telangana Maharashtra
Numberoffarmerssuicide
19
Changes in incidence of suicides in farming sector
States 2001 2015
% Change in
2015 over 2001
Maharashtra 3536 4291 21.35
Karnataka 2505 1569 -37.37
Chhattisgarh 1452 954 -34.30
Madhya Pradesh 1372 1290 -5.98
Himachal
Pradesh
22 46 109.09
India 16415 12602 -23.23
Source: NCRB Report-2015 20
2. REASONS FOR FARMERS’ SUICIDE IN
INDIA
21
Crop Failure
Crop failure is the reason
for most of the farmers to
commit suicide. The
reasons for crop failure are:
 Single crop in a year
 Improper irrigation
 Cotton, the dominant crop
 Maximum use of chemicals
and pesticides
 Regular rise in cost of input,
lowered margin of profit
22
Monsoon aberrations
 Farmers in India mainly
depend on the monsoons
 There is regular break
down in the
meteorological cycle of
rainfall
 Sometimes, more than
normal rains causes flood
which also destroys the
crop
23
Drought
 Immediate consequence
of drought is a fall in crop
production
 Farmers harvest the crop
that are too small to feed
both their families and
fodder supplies from
crop residues to feed
their livestock
 The drastic measures
can include changing
jobs or suicides
24
Lack of proper Irrigation
 Farmers don’t have any
source for proper irrigation
farming
 Irrigation farming is when
crops are grown with the
help of irrigation systems by
supplying water to land
through rivers, reservoirs,
tanks, and wells
25
Net irrigated area, 2008-2015
States 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15
Maharashtra
3259
(19)
3254
(19)
3256
(19)
3252
(19)
3244
(19)
3248
(19)
3244
(19)
Telangana
4820*
(44)
4214*
(42)
5034*
(45)
5090*
(46)
4575*
(41)
2289
(46)
1726
(39)
Karnataka
3238
(32)
3390
(33)
3490
(33)
3440
(35)
3421
(35)
3556
(36)
4186
(36)
Chhattisgarh
1339
(28)
1323
(28)
1356
(29)
1415
(30)
1449
(31)
1462
(31)
1466
(31)
Madhya
Pradesh
6506
(44)
6892
(46)
7140
(47)
7887
(52)
8550
(60)
9455
(61)
9584
(62)
Himachal
Pradesh
108
(20)
106
(20)
110
(20)
113
(21)
113
(21)
113
(21)
113
(21)
India
63637
(45)
61945
(45)
63665
(45)
65707
(47)
66285
(47)
68116
(48)
68383
(49)
Fig. in parentheses represent per cent of net irrigated area to net sown area
* Net irrigated area of Andhra Pradesh
Area in ‘000 ha
27
Number of suicides due to Crop Failure
States
Farming related Issues
Total Farmers’
Suicide
Failure of crop due to
Natural
Calamities
Others
Reason Total
Maharashtra
730
(24.31)
62
(2.06)
792
(26.37)
3003
Telangana
56
(4.12)
339
(24.96)
395
(29.09)
1358
Karnataka
69
(5.76)
57
(4.77)
126
(10.53)
1197
Chhattisgarh 0
1
(0.12)
1
(0.12)
854
Madhya
Pradesh
3
(0.52)
29
(4.99)
32
(5.51)
581
India
879
(10.98)
673
(8.40)
1552
(19.38)
8007
Source: NCRB Report-2015
Fig. in parentheses represent per cent of
suicide to total farmers’ suicides in the state.
28
Size of holding
• The landless and existence of marginal
holdings are the results of land fragmentation
• Fragmented land holdings results in low
productivity
• The marginal farmers also lack the resources
and adequate excess to institutional finance
29
State Year Marginal Small Semi-Medium Medium Large Total
Maharashtra 2010-11 48.97 29.58 15.76 5.19 0.50 100.00
2015-16 51.39 29.33 14.39 4.47 0.41 100.00
Telangana
2010-11 61.96 23.90 10.86 3.00 0.28 100.00
2015-16 64.56 23.69 9.48 2.11 0.16 100.00
Karnataka 2010-11 49.14 27.30 16.17 6.52 0.86 100.00
2015-16 54.90 25.51 13.74 5.20 0.64 100.00
Madhya
Pradesh
2010-11 43.86 27.60 18.65 8.89 1.00 100.00
2015-16 48.33 27.24 16.74 7.04 0.63 100.00
Chhattisgarh 2010-11 58.26 22.18 13.43 5.39 0.74 100.00
2015-16 60.66 21.92 12.31 4.52 0.58 100.00
Himachal
Pradesh
2010-11 69.78 18.17 8.83 2.87 0.34 100.00
2015-16 71.43 17.41 8.26 2.60 0.30 100.00
India 2010-11 67.10 17.91 10.04 4.25 0.70 100.00
2015-16 68.52 17.69 9.45 3.76 0.57 100.00
State wise per cent distribution of number of operational holding
Source: Agricultural Statistics at a Glance 2017
31
Fig. in per cent
Land category- wise suicides during 2015
States Marginal Small Medium Large Total
Maharashtra
834
(27.52)
1285
(42.41)
899
(29.67)
12
(0.40)
3030
Telangana
301
(22.16)
605
(44.55)
373
(27.47)
79
(5.82)
1358
Karnataka
209
(17.46)
751
(62.74)
235
(19.63)
2
(0.17)
1197
Chhattisgarh
354
(41.45)
310
(36.30)
153
(17.92)
37
(4.33)
854
Madhya Pradesh
154
(26.51)
289
(49.72)
134
(23.06)
4
(0.69)
581
India
2195
(27.42)
3618
(45.19)
2034
(25.40)
160
(2.00)
8007
Source: NCRB Report-2015 33
Lack of power supply
• Many tasks related
to agriculture are
power/electricity
dependent
• Costly or no
electricity supply
proves to be a
significant problem
34
Consumption of electricity for agricultural purposes
States
% Share of
consumption of
Agriculture to total
energy sold in 2014-15
% Share of
consumption of
Agriculture to
total energy sold
in 2015-16
Maharashtra 24.55 24.62
Telangana 31.71 29.04
Karnataka 32.61 33.76
Chhattisgarh 18.20 21.31
Madhya Pradesh 36.09 40.68
India 20.74 20.06
Agricultural Statistics at a Glance 2017 35
Indebtedness
• Indebtedness is the reason behind
the suicide of 55% of farmers &
agricultural labourer
• Over 3,000 farmers who committed
suicides across the country in 2015
due to debt and bankruptcy
• Cooperative sector brought down
their interest rates to 7%, even
then the farmers are taking loans
from the private individuals
36
Expensive technologies
• New technologies are better but
they come with a big price tags,
which are either too costly to be
bought or farmers get their money
through loans which push them into
debt
37
Number of agricultural and indebted agricultural households
States
Number of
Agricultural
Households
Number of Agricultural
Households Having
Loan
% of Agricultural
Households
indebted
Maharashtra 70970 40672 57.30
Karnataka 42421 32775 77.26
Telangana 25389 22628 89.12
Madhya Pradesh 59950 27414 45.73
Chhattisgarh 25608 9538 37.25
Himachal
Pradesh
8811 2457 27.88
India 902011 468461 51.94
Agricultural Statistic at a Glance, 2017
38
Number of suicides due to Bankruptcy/Indebtedness
States
Bankruptcy/Indebtedness due to loan taken from
Total
farmers
suicide
Financial
Institution
Money
Lenders Both Total
Maharashtra
1237
(41.19)
14
(0.47)
42
(1.40)
1293
(43.06)
3003
Telangana
384
(28.28)
139
(10.23)
109
(8.03)
632
(46.54)
1358
Karnataka
787
(65.75)
118
(9.86)
41
(3.42)
946
(79.03)
1197
Chhattisgarh
1
(0.12)
1
(0.12)
1
(0.12)
3
(0.36)
854
Madhya
Pradesh
6
(1.03)
1
(0.17)
6
1.03)
13
(2.24)
581
All India
2474
(30.90)
302
(3.77)
321
(4.01)
3097
(38.68)
8007
Source: NCRB Report-2015
Fig. in parentheses represent per cent of
suicide to total farmers’ suicides in the state. 39
Reasons for Indebtedness
Increasing cost of
agriculture inputs
Reduced price of
agriculture
produce
Repeated crop
loss
Ineffective govt.
policies
Increasing dependence
on money lenders at high
rates of interest
Indebtedness
40
Fertilizer consumption in major states
States 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17
Maharashtra 117.71 125.6 122.45 114.75
Karnataka 153.65 176.15 174.96 162.58
Telangana 212.99 231.43 268.91 243.46
Madhya Pradesh 80.47 78.17 83.59 79.70
Chhattisgarh 86.45 92.07 100.12 102.07
Himachal
Pradesh
51.32 53.96 57.1 57.49
India 118.49 127.45 130.66 123.41
Source: Agricultural Statistics at a Glance 2017
kg/ha
41
Pesticide consumption in major states
States 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16
Maharashtra 0.37 0.50 0.57
Karnataka 0.15 0.12 0.10
Telangana 0.54 0.56 0.72
Madhya Pradesh 0.03 0.03 0.03
Chhattisgarh 0.28 0.28 0.26
Himachal Pradesh 0.41 0.49 0.37
India 0.28 0.27 0.29
kg/ha
Source: States/UTs Zonal Conferences on Inputs (Plant Protection)
43
Other Reasons of Farmers’ Suicides
• Family problems
• Poverty of farmers
• Addiction to drinking
• Illness
• Marriage related issues
44
States
Family
Problem
Poverty Illness
Alcoholic
Addiction
Fall in
Social
Reputation
Marriage
related
issues
Maharashtra
383
(12.75)
27
(0.90)
214
(7.13)
170
(5.66)
2
(0.07)
24
(0.80)
Telangana
72
(5.30)
20
(1.47)
160
(11.78)
4
(0.29)
0
4
(0.29)
Karnataka
21
(1.75)
0
24
(2.01)
13
(1.09)
0
9
(0.75)
Chhattisgarh
153
(17.92)
0
223
(26.11)
48
(5.62)
3
(0.35)
14
(1.64)
Madhya
Pradesh
183
(31.50)
3
(0.52)
150
(25.82)
74
(12.74)
2
(0.34)
19
(3.27)
India
933
(11.65)
92
(1.15)
842
(10.51)
330
(4.12)
11
(0.14)
157
(1.96)
Number of suicide by farmers due to other reasons during 2015
Source: NCRB Report-2015Fig. in parentheses represent per cent of farmers’
suicide to total farmers’ suicides in state
45
Transitional probability showing dynamics of shift in the
cropping pattern in Maharashtra
Food grains Oilseeds Vegetables
Cotton &
Others
Food grains 0.51 0.21 0.04 0.24
Oilseeds 0.30 0.15 0.00 0.55
Vegetables 0.00 1.00 0.00 0.00
Cotton &
others
0.80 0.03 0.12 0.05
46
From
To
Predicted Cropping Pattern in Maharashtra
47
2010-11 2012-13 2014-15 2016-17 2017-18
Food
grains
13.03 10.58 11.45 12.16 11.57
Oilseeds 3.62 3.81 4.31 4.44 4.25
Vegetables 0.60 0.70 0.60 0.70 0.83
Cotton &
others
4.91 5.08 5.24 4.43 5.08
Area in m ha
Transitional probability showing dynamics of shift in the
cropping pattern in Telangana
Food grains Oilseeds Vegetables
Cotton &
Others
Food grains 0.56 0 0 0.44
Oilseeds 0.20 0.61 0.19 0
Vegetables 0.51 0.49 0 0
Cotton &
others
0.93 0 0.02 0.05
48
From
To
Predicted Cropping Pattern in Telangana
49
2010-11* 2012-13* 2014-15* 2016-17 2017-18
Food
grains
8.03 6.99 6.58 3.29 3.39
Oilseeds 2.32 1.95 1.57 0.52 0.41
Vegetables 0.65 0.71 0.35 0.19 0.13
Cotton &
others
2.24 2.73 2.86 1.45 1.52
Area in m ha
* Area under crops in Andhra Pradesh
Transitional probability showing dynamics of shift in the
cropping pattern in India
Food grains Oilseeds Vegetables
Cotton &
Others
Food grains 0.39 0.08 0.53 0
Oilseeds 0.68 0 0 0.32
Vegetables 0.61 0.08 0.20 0.11
Cotton &
others
0 0.43 0.57 0
52
From
To
Predicted cropping pattern in India
53
2010-11 2012-13 2014-15 2016-17 2017-18
Food
grains
126.67 120.78 124.3 128.03 130.55
Oilseeds 27.22 26.48 25.59 26.21 25.22
Vegetables 84.94 93.21 94.17 102.95 97.39
Cotton &
others
16.61 17.41 18.35 15.69 19.71
Agricultural Statistics at a Glance 2017
Area in m ha
MSP not helping?
States
Awareness among farmers
Rabi Crops Kharif Crops
Maharashtra 8.00 8.19
Telangana 30.82 25.32
Karnataka 14.61 13.97
Chhattisgarh 37.09 47.20
Madhya Pradesh 30.47 12.19
Himachal
Pradesh
10.24 13.24
India 23.72 20.04
Source: NSSO 70th Round data
per cent
54
Vulnerability Index
Parameters Maharashtra Telangana Karnataka Chhattisgarh
Madhya
Pradesh
Small &
marginal size of
holding (%)
80.72
(III)
88.25
(I)
80.41
(IV)
82.58
(II)
75.57
(V)
Irrigated area
(%)
19
(I)
39
(IV)
36
(III)
31
(II)
62
(V)
Fertilizer
consumption
(kg/ha)
114.75
(III)
243.46
(I)
162.58
(II)
102.07
(IV)
79.7
(V)
Pesticide
consumption
(kg/ha)
0.57
(II)
0.72
(I)
0.10
(IV)
0.26
(III)
0.03
(V)
Electricity
Consumption
for Agri.
Purposes (%)
24.62
(IV)
29.04
(III)
33.76
(II)
21.31
(V)
40.68
(I)
Vulnerability
Index
0.68 0.80 0.60 0.56 0.36
55
Impact of farmers’ suicides
56
Impact of Suicides
 Farmers are confiscated due to inability to pay back high
interest loans. There is also loss of assets i.e. domestic
animals and agriculture implements
 Harassment of the family by corrupt moneylenders
 Impact on children’s education
 Widows burdened with the new responsibility as the sole
breadwinner
57
Contd…..
 The families move from farm labour to permanent
labour
 This also leads to child labour and deterioration of
physical health
 Victimized families sell their animals and lands to
sustain their livelihood. Numbers of victims’ farmers’
family become landless
58
Conclusion
• Since 2001, total of 2,34,657 farmers have taken
their lives
• The initiatives taken by the government until now
have not been able to stop this horrific blot on
society
• As farmers still continued to commit suicide due to
bankruptcy, crop failure, drought, family problems,
small size of holdings etc.
59
Suggestions
 Each and every farmer must form a subsidiary business like
animal husbandry, dairy, fishery or any other business
 All farmers must adopt multi cropping pattern to avoid the
crop failure
 Farmers must visit once a year to agriculture universities for
knowledge up gradation
 Farmers need to adopt crop rotation system to avoid the
deterioration of soil health
For farmers:-
60
Contd…..
 Every farmer should test soil in laboratory and crop
cultivation should be according to potential of soil
 Farmers must establish organizations at village level and
block level and discuss on various issues of farming
61
For policymakers
• The government should cover the poor farmers under
income safety net and the schemes like Fasal Bima
Yojna need to be implemented in its true spirit to prevent
farmers’ suicides
• Marginal and small farmers who cannot sustain due to
small holdings should be encouraged to take up
alternative enterprises and non farm avocation
• In drought affected areas, the government should start
drought proofing through rational water use and irrigation
policy
62
63

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Farmers' suicides

  • 1. Trends and Tendencies of Farmers’ Suicides in India Presented By: Shivalika Sood Seminar Incharge: Dr. KD Sharma CREDIT SEMINAR (AGECON691) on 1
  • 2. Main issues for discussion Introduction Objectives Methodology Farmers’ Suicides Statistics Reasons For Farmers’ Suicides Conclusion Suggestions 2
  • 3. Introduction 3 “Once in your life you need a doctor, a lawyer, a policeman, but every day, three times a day, you need a FARMER” Brenda Schoepp
  • 4. Who is a farmer? A farmer is a person engaged in agriculture and raises animals for food or raw materials  A farmer might own the farm land or might work as a labourer on land owned by others In advance economies, a farmer is usually a farm owner, while employees of the farm are known as farm workers 4
  • 5. What is suicide ?  The word Suicide originates from Latin word ‘suicidium’, which means ‘to kill oneself’  Suicide is the act of intentionally causing one's own death  Common methods include: hanging, pesticide poisoning, drowning, firearms, etc 5
  • 6. Why should we talk about farmers’ suicides ?  Agriculture sector has an important role in Indian economy  India’s population is 1.34 billion (World Bank, United States Census Bureau, 2017)  Agriculture provides the principal means of livelihood for more than 55 per cent of India's population  The share of agriculture and allied sector in GDP of India is 15.4 per cent (Ministry of Statistics and Programme implementation 2018-19) 6
  • 7. Indian farmers in crisis  Excessive dependence of a large section of population on agriculture  Declining size-class of holdings and an increasing preponderance of marginal holdings along with poor returns from cultivation  Supply of credit from formal sources to the agricultural sector is inadequate both in volume and outreach  With changing technology and market conditions, the farmer is increasingly being exposed to the uncertainties of the product 7
  • 8. Farmers’ Suicides in India  In the 1990s India first time witnessed the cases of farmers’ suicides  The first state where suicides were reported was Maharashtra. Soon newspapers began to report similar occurrences from Andhra Pradesh  In the beginning it was believed that most of the suicides were happening among the cotton growers, especially those from Vidarbha  The figures by the State Crime Records Bureau indicated that it was not just the cotton farmer but farmers as a professional category were suffering 8
  • 9. Objectives 1. To know the status of farmers’ suicides in India 2. To identify the causal factors associated with farmers’ suicides and suggest remedial measures 9
  • 10. Methodology The study is based on secondary data obtained from different sources. The trend in farmers’ suicide was estimated using exponential model for period 2001-2015. Y = a.bt where, Y = Farmers’ suicides/Total suicides in the year t a = Constant b = Regression coefficient t = Time variable from the estimated function The compound growth rate was worked out by CGR (r) = [Antilog (log b) -1] x 100 where, r = Compound growth rate 10
  • 11. Contd…. Markov Chain Analysis: The Markov chain process was used to study the dynamic changes in the cropping pattern to comprehend the shift in vulnerable states (Manwar and Nagpure 2017). The programming formulation of this model is: 11 subject to Yj = Xj *Pij + Uj Pij > = 0
  • 12. Contd…. • Uj = Dimension vector of random disturbances estimator • Yj = Vectors of observations reflecting the proportions of jth crop in time t • Xj = matrix of realized values of the of jth crop in time t-1 • Pij = Vectors of unknown transition parameters to be estimated showing shift of area from ith crop to jth crop • Thus, the expected area of each crop during period t was obtained by multiplying the area under crop in the previous period (t-1) with the transitional probability matrix 12
  • 13. Contd… Vulnerability Index • Vulnerability index is used to rank the different states in terms of vulnerability of the problem. On a scale of 1-5 the highest score was given according to the importance in determining vulnerability of a state. The highest rank I was given to the parameter which was most vulnerable and rank II was given to less vulnerable parameter and so on. Then vulnerability index was calculated as VI = ∑ Xij /N Xij = Score given to ith parameter in jth state (1-5) N= Total number of parameters 13
  • 14. 1. Status of farmers’ suicides in India 14
  • 15. Percentage Distribution of Suicide Victims by Profession Profession Percentage share in 2001 Percentage Share in 2015 Professionals/Salaried Persons 12.53 7.9 Students 5.00 6.7 House wives 19.84 16.7 Unemployed persons 9.33 8.2 Self-employed persons 7.36 9.1 Farming Sector 15.13 9.4 Daily wage earners 16.75 17.8 Retired persons 0.83 0.8 Other persons 13.07 23.4 Total 100 100 Source: NCRB Report-2015 15
  • 16. Year Farmers’ suicides Total suicides Farmers’ Suicides as % of total suicides 2001 16415 108506 15.13 2002 17971 110417 16.27 2003 17164 110579 15.52 2004 18241 113697 16.04 2005 17131 113914 15.04 2006 17060 118112 14.44 2007 16632 122637 13.56 2008 16196 125017 12.96 2009 17368 127151 13.66 2010 15964 134599 11.86 2011 14027 135585 10.35 2012 13754 135445 10.15 2013 11772 134799 8.73 2014 12360 131666 9.39 2015 12602 133623 9.43 CGR -2.74* (0.45) 1.81* (0.17) Farmers’ Suicides and All Suicides in India, 2001-2015 * Significant at 1 per cent level Source: NCRB Report-2015 16
  • 17. Year Farmers’ Suicides Total Farmers’ suicides Male suicides % of Total Suicides Male Female 2001 13829 2586 16415 84.25 2002 15308 2663 17971 85.18 2003 14701 2463 17164 85.65 2004 15929 2312 18241 87.33 2005 14973 2158 17131 87.40 2006 14664 2396 17060 85.96 2007 14509 2123 16632 87.24 2008 14145 2051 16196 87.34 2009 14951 2417 17368 86.08 2010 13592 2372 15964 85.14 2011 12071 1956 14027 86.06 2012 11951 1803 13754 86.89 2013 10489 1283 11772 89.10 2014 11180 1180 12360 90.45 2015 11584 1018 12602 91.92 Gender-wise farmers’ suicides 2001-2015 Source: NCRB Report- 2015 17
  • 18. Top five states with higher share (%) of farmers’ suicides, 2015 States with lowest number of suicides were Manipur & Mizoram (1) and Uttarakhand (2). Source: NCRB Report-2015 581 (7.26%) 854 (10.66%) 1197 (16.96%) 1358 (14.95%) 3003 (37.50%) 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 Madhya Pradesh Chattisgarh Karnataka Telangana Maharashtra Numberoffarmerssuicide 19
  • 19. Changes in incidence of suicides in farming sector States 2001 2015 % Change in 2015 over 2001 Maharashtra 3536 4291 21.35 Karnataka 2505 1569 -37.37 Chhattisgarh 1452 954 -34.30 Madhya Pradesh 1372 1290 -5.98 Himachal Pradesh 22 46 109.09 India 16415 12602 -23.23 Source: NCRB Report-2015 20
  • 20. 2. REASONS FOR FARMERS’ SUICIDE IN INDIA 21
  • 21. Crop Failure Crop failure is the reason for most of the farmers to commit suicide. The reasons for crop failure are:  Single crop in a year  Improper irrigation  Cotton, the dominant crop  Maximum use of chemicals and pesticides  Regular rise in cost of input, lowered margin of profit 22
  • 22. Monsoon aberrations  Farmers in India mainly depend on the monsoons  There is regular break down in the meteorological cycle of rainfall  Sometimes, more than normal rains causes flood which also destroys the crop 23
  • 23. Drought  Immediate consequence of drought is a fall in crop production  Farmers harvest the crop that are too small to feed both their families and fodder supplies from crop residues to feed their livestock  The drastic measures can include changing jobs or suicides 24
  • 24. Lack of proper Irrigation  Farmers don’t have any source for proper irrigation farming  Irrigation farming is when crops are grown with the help of irrigation systems by supplying water to land through rivers, reservoirs, tanks, and wells 25
  • 25. Net irrigated area, 2008-2015 States 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 Maharashtra 3259 (19) 3254 (19) 3256 (19) 3252 (19) 3244 (19) 3248 (19) 3244 (19) Telangana 4820* (44) 4214* (42) 5034* (45) 5090* (46) 4575* (41) 2289 (46) 1726 (39) Karnataka 3238 (32) 3390 (33) 3490 (33) 3440 (35) 3421 (35) 3556 (36) 4186 (36) Chhattisgarh 1339 (28) 1323 (28) 1356 (29) 1415 (30) 1449 (31) 1462 (31) 1466 (31) Madhya Pradesh 6506 (44) 6892 (46) 7140 (47) 7887 (52) 8550 (60) 9455 (61) 9584 (62) Himachal Pradesh 108 (20) 106 (20) 110 (20) 113 (21) 113 (21) 113 (21) 113 (21) India 63637 (45) 61945 (45) 63665 (45) 65707 (47) 66285 (47) 68116 (48) 68383 (49) Fig. in parentheses represent per cent of net irrigated area to net sown area * Net irrigated area of Andhra Pradesh Area in ‘000 ha 27
  • 26. Number of suicides due to Crop Failure States Farming related Issues Total Farmers’ Suicide Failure of crop due to Natural Calamities Others Reason Total Maharashtra 730 (24.31) 62 (2.06) 792 (26.37) 3003 Telangana 56 (4.12) 339 (24.96) 395 (29.09) 1358 Karnataka 69 (5.76) 57 (4.77) 126 (10.53) 1197 Chhattisgarh 0 1 (0.12) 1 (0.12) 854 Madhya Pradesh 3 (0.52) 29 (4.99) 32 (5.51) 581 India 879 (10.98) 673 (8.40) 1552 (19.38) 8007 Source: NCRB Report-2015 Fig. in parentheses represent per cent of suicide to total farmers’ suicides in the state. 28
  • 27. Size of holding • The landless and existence of marginal holdings are the results of land fragmentation • Fragmented land holdings results in low productivity • The marginal farmers also lack the resources and adequate excess to institutional finance 29
  • 28. State Year Marginal Small Semi-Medium Medium Large Total Maharashtra 2010-11 48.97 29.58 15.76 5.19 0.50 100.00 2015-16 51.39 29.33 14.39 4.47 0.41 100.00 Telangana 2010-11 61.96 23.90 10.86 3.00 0.28 100.00 2015-16 64.56 23.69 9.48 2.11 0.16 100.00 Karnataka 2010-11 49.14 27.30 16.17 6.52 0.86 100.00 2015-16 54.90 25.51 13.74 5.20 0.64 100.00 Madhya Pradesh 2010-11 43.86 27.60 18.65 8.89 1.00 100.00 2015-16 48.33 27.24 16.74 7.04 0.63 100.00 Chhattisgarh 2010-11 58.26 22.18 13.43 5.39 0.74 100.00 2015-16 60.66 21.92 12.31 4.52 0.58 100.00 Himachal Pradesh 2010-11 69.78 18.17 8.83 2.87 0.34 100.00 2015-16 71.43 17.41 8.26 2.60 0.30 100.00 India 2010-11 67.10 17.91 10.04 4.25 0.70 100.00 2015-16 68.52 17.69 9.45 3.76 0.57 100.00 State wise per cent distribution of number of operational holding Source: Agricultural Statistics at a Glance 2017 31 Fig. in per cent
  • 29. Land category- wise suicides during 2015 States Marginal Small Medium Large Total Maharashtra 834 (27.52) 1285 (42.41) 899 (29.67) 12 (0.40) 3030 Telangana 301 (22.16) 605 (44.55) 373 (27.47) 79 (5.82) 1358 Karnataka 209 (17.46) 751 (62.74) 235 (19.63) 2 (0.17) 1197 Chhattisgarh 354 (41.45) 310 (36.30) 153 (17.92) 37 (4.33) 854 Madhya Pradesh 154 (26.51) 289 (49.72) 134 (23.06) 4 (0.69) 581 India 2195 (27.42) 3618 (45.19) 2034 (25.40) 160 (2.00) 8007 Source: NCRB Report-2015 33
  • 30. Lack of power supply • Many tasks related to agriculture are power/electricity dependent • Costly or no electricity supply proves to be a significant problem 34
  • 31. Consumption of electricity for agricultural purposes States % Share of consumption of Agriculture to total energy sold in 2014-15 % Share of consumption of Agriculture to total energy sold in 2015-16 Maharashtra 24.55 24.62 Telangana 31.71 29.04 Karnataka 32.61 33.76 Chhattisgarh 18.20 21.31 Madhya Pradesh 36.09 40.68 India 20.74 20.06 Agricultural Statistics at a Glance 2017 35
  • 32. Indebtedness • Indebtedness is the reason behind the suicide of 55% of farmers & agricultural labourer • Over 3,000 farmers who committed suicides across the country in 2015 due to debt and bankruptcy • Cooperative sector brought down their interest rates to 7%, even then the farmers are taking loans from the private individuals 36
  • 33. Expensive technologies • New technologies are better but they come with a big price tags, which are either too costly to be bought or farmers get their money through loans which push them into debt 37
  • 34. Number of agricultural and indebted agricultural households States Number of Agricultural Households Number of Agricultural Households Having Loan % of Agricultural Households indebted Maharashtra 70970 40672 57.30 Karnataka 42421 32775 77.26 Telangana 25389 22628 89.12 Madhya Pradesh 59950 27414 45.73 Chhattisgarh 25608 9538 37.25 Himachal Pradesh 8811 2457 27.88 India 902011 468461 51.94 Agricultural Statistic at a Glance, 2017 38
  • 35. Number of suicides due to Bankruptcy/Indebtedness States Bankruptcy/Indebtedness due to loan taken from Total farmers suicide Financial Institution Money Lenders Both Total Maharashtra 1237 (41.19) 14 (0.47) 42 (1.40) 1293 (43.06) 3003 Telangana 384 (28.28) 139 (10.23) 109 (8.03) 632 (46.54) 1358 Karnataka 787 (65.75) 118 (9.86) 41 (3.42) 946 (79.03) 1197 Chhattisgarh 1 (0.12) 1 (0.12) 1 (0.12) 3 (0.36) 854 Madhya Pradesh 6 (1.03) 1 (0.17) 6 1.03) 13 (2.24) 581 All India 2474 (30.90) 302 (3.77) 321 (4.01) 3097 (38.68) 8007 Source: NCRB Report-2015 Fig. in parentheses represent per cent of suicide to total farmers’ suicides in the state. 39
  • 36. Reasons for Indebtedness Increasing cost of agriculture inputs Reduced price of agriculture produce Repeated crop loss Ineffective govt. policies Increasing dependence on money lenders at high rates of interest Indebtedness 40
  • 37. Fertilizer consumption in major states States 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 Maharashtra 117.71 125.6 122.45 114.75 Karnataka 153.65 176.15 174.96 162.58 Telangana 212.99 231.43 268.91 243.46 Madhya Pradesh 80.47 78.17 83.59 79.70 Chhattisgarh 86.45 92.07 100.12 102.07 Himachal Pradesh 51.32 53.96 57.1 57.49 India 118.49 127.45 130.66 123.41 Source: Agricultural Statistics at a Glance 2017 kg/ha 41
  • 38. Pesticide consumption in major states States 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 Maharashtra 0.37 0.50 0.57 Karnataka 0.15 0.12 0.10 Telangana 0.54 0.56 0.72 Madhya Pradesh 0.03 0.03 0.03 Chhattisgarh 0.28 0.28 0.26 Himachal Pradesh 0.41 0.49 0.37 India 0.28 0.27 0.29 kg/ha Source: States/UTs Zonal Conferences on Inputs (Plant Protection) 43
  • 39. Other Reasons of Farmers’ Suicides • Family problems • Poverty of farmers • Addiction to drinking • Illness • Marriage related issues 44
  • 41. Transitional probability showing dynamics of shift in the cropping pattern in Maharashtra Food grains Oilseeds Vegetables Cotton & Others Food grains 0.51 0.21 0.04 0.24 Oilseeds 0.30 0.15 0.00 0.55 Vegetables 0.00 1.00 0.00 0.00 Cotton & others 0.80 0.03 0.12 0.05 46 From To
  • 42. Predicted Cropping Pattern in Maharashtra 47 2010-11 2012-13 2014-15 2016-17 2017-18 Food grains 13.03 10.58 11.45 12.16 11.57 Oilseeds 3.62 3.81 4.31 4.44 4.25 Vegetables 0.60 0.70 0.60 0.70 0.83 Cotton & others 4.91 5.08 5.24 4.43 5.08 Area in m ha
  • 43. Transitional probability showing dynamics of shift in the cropping pattern in Telangana Food grains Oilseeds Vegetables Cotton & Others Food grains 0.56 0 0 0.44 Oilseeds 0.20 0.61 0.19 0 Vegetables 0.51 0.49 0 0 Cotton & others 0.93 0 0.02 0.05 48 From To
  • 44. Predicted Cropping Pattern in Telangana 49 2010-11* 2012-13* 2014-15* 2016-17 2017-18 Food grains 8.03 6.99 6.58 3.29 3.39 Oilseeds 2.32 1.95 1.57 0.52 0.41 Vegetables 0.65 0.71 0.35 0.19 0.13 Cotton & others 2.24 2.73 2.86 1.45 1.52 Area in m ha * Area under crops in Andhra Pradesh
  • 45. Transitional probability showing dynamics of shift in the cropping pattern in India Food grains Oilseeds Vegetables Cotton & Others Food grains 0.39 0.08 0.53 0 Oilseeds 0.68 0 0 0.32 Vegetables 0.61 0.08 0.20 0.11 Cotton & others 0 0.43 0.57 0 52 From To
  • 46. Predicted cropping pattern in India 53 2010-11 2012-13 2014-15 2016-17 2017-18 Food grains 126.67 120.78 124.3 128.03 130.55 Oilseeds 27.22 26.48 25.59 26.21 25.22 Vegetables 84.94 93.21 94.17 102.95 97.39 Cotton & others 16.61 17.41 18.35 15.69 19.71 Agricultural Statistics at a Glance 2017 Area in m ha
  • 47. MSP not helping? States Awareness among farmers Rabi Crops Kharif Crops Maharashtra 8.00 8.19 Telangana 30.82 25.32 Karnataka 14.61 13.97 Chhattisgarh 37.09 47.20 Madhya Pradesh 30.47 12.19 Himachal Pradesh 10.24 13.24 India 23.72 20.04 Source: NSSO 70th Round data per cent 54
  • 48. Vulnerability Index Parameters Maharashtra Telangana Karnataka Chhattisgarh Madhya Pradesh Small & marginal size of holding (%) 80.72 (III) 88.25 (I) 80.41 (IV) 82.58 (II) 75.57 (V) Irrigated area (%) 19 (I) 39 (IV) 36 (III) 31 (II) 62 (V) Fertilizer consumption (kg/ha) 114.75 (III) 243.46 (I) 162.58 (II) 102.07 (IV) 79.7 (V) Pesticide consumption (kg/ha) 0.57 (II) 0.72 (I) 0.10 (IV) 0.26 (III) 0.03 (V) Electricity Consumption for Agri. Purposes (%) 24.62 (IV) 29.04 (III) 33.76 (II) 21.31 (V) 40.68 (I) Vulnerability Index 0.68 0.80 0.60 0.56 0.36 55
  • 49. Impact of farmers’ suicides 56
  • 50. Impact of Suicides  Farmers are confiscated due to inability to pay back high interest loans. There is also loss of assets i.e. domestic animals and agriculture implements  Harassment of the family by corrupt moneylenders  Impact on children’s education  Widows burdened with the new responsibility as the sole breadwinner 57
  • 51. Contd…..  The families move from farm labour to permanent labour  This also leads to child labour and deterioration of physical health  Victimized families sell their animals and lands to sustain their livelihood. Numbers of victims’ farmers’ family become landless 58
  • 52. Conclusion • Since 2001, total of 2,34,657 farmers have taken their lives • The initiatives taken by the government until now have not been able to stop this horrific blot on society • As farmers still continued to commit suicide due to bankruptcy, crop failure, drought, family problems, small size of holdings etc. 59
  • 53. Suggestions  Each and every farmer must form a subsidiary business like animal husbandry, dairy, fishery or any other business  All farmers must adopt multi cropping pattern to avoid the crop failure  Farmers must visit once a year to agriculture universities for knowledge up gradation  Farmers need to adopt crop rotation system to avoid the deterioration of soil health For farmers:- 60
  • 54. Contd…..  Every farmer should test soil in laboratory and crop cultivation should be according to potential of soil  Farmers must establish organizations at village level and block level and discuss on various issues of farming 61
  • 55. For policymakers • The government should cover the poor farmers under income safety net and the schemes like Fasal Bima Yojna need to be implemented in its true spirit to prevent farmers’ suicides • Marginal and small farmers who cannot sustain due to small holdings should be encouraged to take up alternative enterprises and non farm avocation • In drought affected areas, the government should start drought proofing through rational water use and irrigation policy 62
  • 56. 63

Editor's Notes

  1. First, there has been a decline in the trend growth rate of production as well as productivity for almost all crops from the mid-nineties. Further, the value of output from agriculture has been declining from late nineties. Second, there is an excessive dependence of a large section of the population on agriculture (in 2004-05 nearly 64 per cent of the rural persons were from households whose members’ major activity status was either self-employed in agriculture or agricultural labour). This also indicates that rural non-farm employment opportunities are limited. Third, with declining size-class of holdings and an increasing preponderance of marginal holdings (63 per cent as per 2000-01 agricultural census) along with poor returns from cultivation indicates that the income for farm households is very low. Fourth, the much talked about green revolution had a greater focus on rice and wheat under irrigated condition bypassing crops and regions under rainfed or dry land conditions (which is three-fifths of the 141 million hectares of net sown area in the country during 2003-04). There has been a failure to capitalise on the vast network of institutes to provide and regulate new technology (including the usage of biotechnology), and a virtual absence of extension service. Fifth, the neglect of agriculture in plan resource allocation has led to a decline of public investments in irrigation and other related infrastructure. Sixth, supply of credit from formal sources to the agricultural sector is inadequate leading to greater reliance on informal sources at higher interest burden. Last, but not the least, with changing technology and market conditions the farmer is increasingly being exposed to the uncertainties of the product as well as factor markets.
  2. For probability analysis it was assumed that the movement of objects from one state to another state are governed b probabilistic system. Outcome of trial in period t depends on the outcome of preceding trial t-1 and dependence is same at all stages of sequence.
  3. VI it shows the most vulnerable state which need to be prioritized first Inability to with stand the effect of farmers suicides I have taken the 5 parameters such as….. And then given a rank to parameter among the states acc. to their relative importance
  4. 58% of farmers having committed suicides had absolutely no irrigation facilities
  5. As per land holding status, farmers have been classified in four categories namely ‘Marginal Farmers’ (having less than 1 hectare of land), ‘Small Farmers’ (having 1 hectare to below 2 hectare of land), ‘Medium Farmers’ (having 2 hectare to below 10 hectare of land) and ‘Large Farmers’ (having more than 10 hectare of land). This classification is meant for statistical purpose only.
  6. About 10% farmers had committed suicide due to debts caused by loans taken from both banks and moneylenders.
  7. MSP is announced for whole of India but its operation is limited to certain state In Chhattisgarh awareness among farmers about MSP is more because procurement of food grain through agencies id more active in the state
  8. VI it shows the most vulnerable state which need to be prioritized first Inability to with stand the effect of farmers suicides I have taken the 5 parameters such as….. And then given a rank to parameter among the states acc. to their relative importance
  9. Impact on children educations: Children sometimes lose both parents to suicide, forcing their education to a halt, especially if they have to work in order to provide for their needs. confiscated to take a possession away from someone when you have the right to do so, usually as a punishment and often for a limited period, after which it is returned to the owner: 
  10. Large number of suicide victims having marginal and small land holding. If these farmers apply contract farming or co-operative farming. This will reduce the risk of farmers on one hand and more benefits of experienced farmers can take on the other hand