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Experiences from
The High Sales Season
12 October 2017
Jorrit Bouma
Wonderbly (Previously Lostmy.name)
Director of Performance Marketing & CRM
TravelBird
Global Lead Paid Social & Display
Jorrit Bouma
Previously
The Little Boy Or Girl Who
Lost Their Name - An
adventure based on the
letters of a name
My Golden Ticket - Magically
transports any child into Willy
Wonka’s chocolate factory
The Birthday Thief - A
birthday story that changes
based on the child’s birth
data.
Kingdom of You - A book
bursting with the child's
favourite things
A Letter for the Littlest Bear -
Introduces a little one to their
whole family
The Incredible Intergalactic
Journey Home - An adventure
from outer space to home
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JhO_EsSlNA8
We deal with seasonality. A lot of it.
“Winter is coming”
60% of our annual sales are in Q4
5th of December ‘16 The last 2 weeks
17(hopefully useful)
tips to smash
your peak season
Preparation
The (boring) basics
“Without data you're just
another person with an opinion.”
- W. Edwards Deming
Preparation Tip #1: Retro last Q4
Total
Facebook &
Instagram
PPC NB
Display &
Pinterest
Preparation Tip #1: Retro last year
As predicted, TV became
increasingly more efficient
over time in all markets.
Decision to spend more in
US and UK
Est. Weekly TV £CPOs by Market
Entirely pointless mapto keep BI-guys happy
Tube conversions by postcode
Preparation Tip #1: Retro last year
Key learnings for us
(might not apply to you!)
Improve channel diversity by increasing ATL investment,
rephase budgets next Q4 to accommodate for shifting conversion
lag and focus on high growth “RoW” and LATAM markets
“No plan survives first
contact with customers”
- Steve Blank
Preparation Tip #2: Scenario planning
Depending competition, auction dynamics, potential failure of a new
TV ad, site stability, weather, US elections, tornado’s, Facebook’s
mood, Unilever offloading budgets, Adblockers, Uber getting stripped
of their licence to operate, thundersnow, Brexit, AWS outages, Big Ben
being stopped for maintenance, performance may vary. Be prepared.
Preparation Tip #2: Scenario planning
Top-line
budget 1
Top-line
budget 2
Marketing
budget 1
Marketing
budget 2
Finance/BIMarketing
Target
marketing
contribution
(or whatever
your goal is)
Scenario 1
“FB goes to shit”
Scenario 1
“New TV ad sucks”
Preparation Tip #3: Trading calendar per geo Work in progress
Preparation Tip #3: Trading calendar per geo
Major trading events
Product launches
Operational restrictions
Local events
Launch of TV campaign
Targeted reactivation
Direct Mail send
Preparation Tip #4: Emergency drills & plans
“Site-down” drill Clear decisioning tree Communicate
“Culture eats strategy for breakfast”
- Peter Drucker
Preparation Tip #5: Keep your team happy
Hire
smart
people
£1K
annual
training
budget
Send
juniors to
Berlin for
training
Great
perks
(free food +
booze)
Preparation Tip #5: Keep your team happy
Hire
smart
people
£1K
annual
training
budget
Send
juniors to
Berlin for
training
Great
perks
(free food +
booze)
Try to be a great
manager for your
team
Peak season will
be stressful!
Preparation Bonus recruitment tip
Hack to hire the
smartest grads (hey
Luke & David!)
“You run a hamburger
restaurant, calculate
rental share (%) of a
burger’s profit”
Preparation Tip #6: Team up with external stakeholders
Preparation Tip #7: Automate all the things
We use Smartly for
Predictive budget
allocation and fairly
straightforward
CPO-based triggers.
We also have
“stop-loss” rules that
can kill campaigns in
case of emergency
We use DoubleClick for
search for CPO-based
bidding across
AdWords, Bing and
Yahoo. On top of that
we add in impression
share triggers to
maximise visibility in
Q4.
We use Ometria as a
CRM “DMP”, where all
our customer data
lives.
Ometria pushes CRM
audiences to FB/SEA
for cross-channel CRM
campaigning.
Next step: Push DWH Attributed CPO/ROAS to channels
Preparation Tip #8: Kick-off!
Live
Delivering on the “plan”
Performance Performance Performance
“Performance”
standup involving BI,
Shop, Marketing.
Aim: Ensure site and
CVR stability
Live Tip #9: Keep communicating
Performance Performance Performance
Marketing
meeting
Live Tip #9: Keep communicating
“Marketing Meeting”
going through LW
performance against
budget, next steps,
ongoing testing,
cross-channel collab, etc.
Performance Performance Performance
Finance
Marketing
meeting
Live Tip #9: Keep communicating
“Finance standup” to make
sure we’re staying within our
FB credit limit
(= Sending FB enough )
Performance Performance Performance
Finance Ops
Marketing
meeting
Live Tip #9: Keep communicating
“Ops standup”
looking at
operational stability
across all geo’s (yes,
PSP’s collapse under the
volumes of Q4 )
Performance Performance Performance
Finance Ops
Marketing
meeting
Trading
Live Tip #9: Keep communicating
“Trading meeting” -
Weekly recap, how did
we do against budget,
what geo’s do well, what
products perform where,
etc.
Live Tip #10: Summarise/Operationalise testing
In-channel:
● Operationalise winning experiments
● Decrease volume of testing
New channels:
● Scale winners
● Re-test mediocre channels
Live Tip #11: Diversify channel mix
Seasonality dramatically
increases your CVR as you’re
a more relevant product to
potential customers.
This means otherwise
“expensive” channels become
available. Use them to reach
new audiences and to
decrease dependency (=risk)
on your core channels!
Q4 CVR
Live Tip #12: Be flexible with budgets
A marketing budget is just
a guideline for how you
think you’ll most likely hit
your goals. Stay flexible.
We reallocate spend on the
fly between channel-geo
combinations based on
performance.
Live Tip #13: Adjust for shifting conversion lag
Live Tip #13: Adjust for shifting conversion lag
More users start returning and
converting later, users less
likely to not return at all
1
Live Tip #13: Adjust for shifting conversion lag
More users start returning and
converting later, users less
likely to not return at all
1
Users become less likely to return
and convert later, increase in
likelyness to convert in-session
2
Live Tip #13: Adjust for shifting conversion lag
Users become less likely to return
and convert later, increase in
likelyness to convert in-session
More users start returning and
converting later, users less
likely to not return at all
1
Increase in users that
return but don’t convert
2
3
Live Tip #13: Adjust for shifting conversion lag
Key learnings for us
(might not apply to you!)
Allocate spend to late October and November, that’s when people start
their Christmas shopping orientation. “Yesterday's CPA” will look poor
because of shifting conversion lag, operationalise different CPA targets.
Retarget your Oct/Nov visitors in December. In December higher CPM’s
and lower response decreases efficiency of acquisition marketing.
“The only use for last click attribution
is to get you fired. Avoid it.”
- Avinash Kaushik
Live Tip #14: Don’t rely on marketing pixels
+
New customer - “Smile”
Position based (40-20-40)
Repeat customer - “Smirk”
Time decay
Live Tip #14: Don’t rely on marketing pixels
+
New customer - “Smile”
Position based (40-20-40)
Repeat customer - “Smirk”
Time decay
Some day...
Live Tip #14: Don’t rely on marketing pixels
Branded search conversions uplift
Or just ask…
“Where did you hear about us?”
Live Tip #15: CPO =/= CPA
Cost per order - includes repeat customers, and therefore dilutes
your blended channel efficiency with low-CPO repeat ordersCPO
Cost per acquisition - the cost of acquiring a customer (CAC).
Especially in your peak season, this is (likely) what matters most.CPA
Live Tip #16: Have some fun!
Real timedashboards
Full-on
randomness
“Marketing
Masterchef”
???
After
Celebrate?
After Tip #17: Scale down & go home
Out of
office
Out of
office
Out of
office
Out of
office
Out of
office
Out of
office
Out of
office
AfterLivePreparation
● Do a retro
● Scenario plans
● Trading calendar
● Prepare for the worst
● Keep the team happy
● Prepare with partners
● Automate
● Kick-off!
● Communicate
● Operationalise testing
● Diversify channel mix
● Flexible budgets
● Adjust for shifting lag
● Don’t rely on pixels
● Have fun!
● Scale down, go home
"Experiences from the high sales season" - Smartly Connect Keynote

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"Experiences from the high sales season" - Smartly Connect Keynote

  • 1.
  • 2. Experiences from The High Sales Season 12 October 2017 Jorrit Bouma
  • 3. Wonderbly (Previously Lostmy.name) Director of Performance Marketing & CRM TravelBird Global Lead Paid Social & Display Jorrit Bouma
  • 5.
  • 6.
  • 7. The Little Boy Or Girl Who Lost Their Name - An adventure based on the letters of a name My Golden Ticket - Magically transports any child into Willy Wonka’s chocolate factory The Birthday Thief - A birthday story that changes based on the child’s birth data. Kingdom of You - A book bursting with the child's favourite things A Letter for the Littlest Bear - Introduces a little one to their whole family The Incredible Intergalactic Journey Home - An adventure from outer space to home
  • 9. We deal with seasonality. A lot of it.
  • 11. 60% of our annual sales are in Q4
  • 12. 5th of December ‘16 The last 2 weeks
  • 13. 17(hopefully useful) tips to smash your peak season
  • 15. “Without data you're just another person with an opinion.” - W. Edwards Deming
  • 16. Preparation Tip #1: Retro last Q4 Total Facebook & Instagram PPC NB Display & Pinterest
  • 17. Preparation Tip #1: Retro last year As predicted, TV became increasingly more efficient over time in all markets. Decision to spend more in US and UK Est. Weekly TV £CPOs by Market Entirely pointless mapto keep BI-guys happy Tube conversions by postcode
  • 18. Preparation Tip #1: Retro last year Key learnings for us (might not apply to you!) Improve channel diversity by increasing ATL investment, rephase budgets next Q4 to accommodate for shifting conversion lag and focus on high growth “RoW” and LATAM markets
  • 19. “No plan survives first contact with customers” - Steve Blank
  • 20. Preparation Tip #2: Scenario planning Depending competition, auction dynamics, potential failure of a new TV ad, site stability, weather, US elections, tornado’s, Facebook’s mood, Unilever offloading budgets, Adblockers, Uber getting stripped of their licence to operate, thundersnow, Brexit, AWS outages, Big Ben being stopped for maintenance, performance may vary. Be prepared.
  • 21. Preparation Tip #2: Scenario planning Top-line budget 1 Top-line budget 2 Marketing budget 1 Marketing budget 2 Finance/BIMarketing Target marketing contribution (or whatever your goal is) Scenario 1 “FB goes to shit” Scenario 1 “New TV ad sucks”
  • 22. Preparation Tip #3: Trading calendar per geo Work in progress
  • 23. Preparation Tip #3: Trading calendar per geo Major trading events Product launches Operational restrictions Local events Launch of TV campaign Targeted reactivation Direct Mail send
  • 24. Preparation Tip #4: Emergency drills & plans “Site-down” drill Clear decisioning tree Communicate
  • 25. “Culture eats strategy for breakfast” - Peter Drucker
  • 26. Preparation Tip #5: Keep your team happy Hire smart people £1K annual training budget Send juniors to Berlin for training Great perks (free food + booze)
  • 27. Preparation Tip #5: Keep your team happy Hire smart people £1K annual training budget Send juniors to Berlin for training Great perks (free food + booze) Try to be a great manager for your team Peak season will be stressful!
  • 28. Preparation Bonus recruitment tip Hack to hire the smartest grads (hey Luke & David!) “You run a hamburger restaurant, calculate rental share (%) of a burger’s profit”
  • 29. Preparation Tip #6: Team up with external stakeholders
  • 30. Preparation Tip #7: Automate all the things We use Smartly for Predictive budget allocation and fairly straightforward CPO-based triggers. We also have “stop-loss” rules that can kill campaigns in case of emergency We use DoubleClick for search for CPO-based bidding across AdWords, Bing and Yahoo. On top of that we add in impression share triggers to maximise visibility in Q4. We use Ometria as a CRM “DMP”, where all our customer data lives. Ometria pushes CRM audiences to FB/SEA for cross-channel CRM campaigning. Next step: Push DWH Attributed CPO/ROAS to channels
  • 31. Preparation Tip #8: Kick-off!
  • 33. Performance Performance Performance “Performance” standup involving BI, Shop, Marketing. Aim: Ensure site and CVR stability Live Tip #9: Keep communicating
  • 34. Performance Performance Performance Marketing meeting Live Tip #9: Keep communicating “Marketing Meeting” going through LW performance against budget, next steps, ongoing testing, cross-channel collab, etc.
  • 35. Performance Performance Performance Finance Marketing meeting Live Tip #9: Keep communicating “Finance standup” to make sure we’re staying within our FB credit limit (= Sending FB enough )
  • 36. Performance Performance Performance Finance Ops Marketing meeting Live Tip #9: Keep communicating “Ops standup” looking at operational stability across all geo’s (yes, PSP’s collapse under the volumes of Q4 )
  • 37. Performance Performance Performance Finance Ops Marketing meeting Trading Live Tip #9: Keep communicating “Trading meeting” - Weekly recap, how did we do against budget, what geo’s do well, what products perform where, etc.
  • 38. Live Tip #10: Summarise/Operationalise testing In-channel: ● Operationalise winning experiments ● Decrease volume of testing New channels: ● Scale winners ● Re-test mediocre channels
  • 39. Live Tip #11: Diversify channel mix Seasonality dramatically increases your CVR as you’re a more relevant product to potential customers. This means otherwise “expensive” channels become available. Use them to reach new audiences and to decrease dependency (=risk) on your core channels! Q4 CVR
  • 40. Live Tip #12: Be flexible with budgets A marketing budget is just a guideline for how you think you’ll most likely hit your goals. Stay flexible. We reallocate spend on the fly between channel-geo combinations based on performance.
  • 41. Live Tip #13: Adjust for shifting conversion lag
  • 42. Live Tip #13: Adjust for shifting conversion lag More users start returning and converting later, users less likely to not return at all 1
  • 43. Live Tip #13: Adjust for shifting conversion lag More users start returning and converting later, users less likely to not return at all 1 Users become less likely to return and convert later, increase in likelyness to convert in-session 2
  • 44. Live Tip #13: Adjust for shifting conversion lag Users become less likely to return and convert later, increase in likelyness to convert in-session More users start returning and converting later, users less likely to not return at all 1 Increase in users that return but don’t convert 2 3
  • 45. Live Tip #13: Adjust for shifting conversion lag Key learnings for us (might not apply to you!) Allocate spend to late October and November, that’s when people start their Christmas shopping orientation. “Yesterday's CPA” will look poor because of shifting conversion lag, operationalise different CPA targets. Retarget your Oct/Nov visitors in December. In December higher CPM’s and lower response decreases efficiency of acquisition marketing.
  • 46. “The only use for last click attribution is to get you fired. Avoid it.” - Avinash Kaushik
  • 47. Live Tip #14: Don’t rely on marketing pixels + New customer - “Smile” Position based (40-20-40) Repeat customer - “Smirk” Time decay
  • 48. Live Tip #14: Don’t rely on marketing pixels + New customer - “Smile” Position based (40-20-40) Repeat customer - “Smirk” Time decay Some day...
  • 49. Live Tip #14: Don’t rely on marketing pixels Branded search conversions uplift Or just ask… “Where did you hear about us?”
  • 50. Live Tip #15: CPO =/= CPA Cost per order - includes repeat customers, and therefore dilutes your blended channel efficiency with low-CPO repeat ordersCPO Cost per acquisition - the cost of acquiring a customer (CAC). Especially in your peak season, this is (likely) what matters most.CPA
  • 51. Live Tip #16: Have some fun! Real timedashboards Full-on randomness “Marketing Masterchef” ???
  • 53. After Tip #17: Scale down & go home Out of office Out of office Out of office Out of office Out of office Out of office Out of office
  • 54. AfterLivePreparation ● Do a retro ● Scenario plans ● Trading calendar ● Prepare for the worst ● Keep the team happy ● Prepare with partners ● Automate ● Kick-off! ● Communicate ● Operationalise testing ● Diversify channel mix ● Flexible budgets ● Adjust for shifting lag ● Don’t rely on pixels ● Have fun! ● Scale down, go home