This document summarizes a study that uses an overlapping generations model to evaluate the welfare and economic effects of raising fertility rates. The model considers both private and public costs and gains of increasing birth rates. It analyzes scenarios where the target fertility rate is increased from 1.4 to up to 2.1, considering adjustments on the intensive margin (more kids per family) and extensive margin (less childless families). The results show that while higher fertility leads to small positive fiscal effects, it universally leads to negative but small welfare effects. The impacts depend on how the higher fertility is distributed across families.

1. Evaluatingwelfare
andeconomiceectsofraisedfertility
Krzysztof Makarski Joanna Tyrowicz Magda Malec
FAME|GRAPE, NBP FAME|GRAPE, IZA, IAAEU FAME|GRAPE
Warsaw School of Economics University of Warsaw Warsaw School of Economics
Motivation
Conicting empirical literature on the eects of
natalistic policies.
No macro and welfare perspective.
Declining population generates scal pressure
due to risisng costs of social security.
Relevant from the policy perspective!
Many countries introduce costly natalisic policies.
Are they worth it?
What do we do?
Construct an overlapping generations model with rich family structure
1. Provide an identication of private and public costs and gains from a given increase in birth rate
2. Consider a variety of fertility scenarios to capture potential regularities between levels of the
fertility and its macroeconomics and welfare consequences
3. Obtain an overview of eects conditional on the distribution of children across families intensive
(families with kids have more) and extensive margin adjustments (less childless families)
How much can be spent (scally) in order to achieve fertility target without detriment to welfare?
Result 1: positive scal eects neutral margin adjustment
scal eects in % GDP
.40%0.1%0.2%0.6%
1.4 1.6 1.8 2
target completed fertility
intensive margin extensive margin
Dierence between government spending in baseline and raised
fertility scenario, discounted for the moment of the fertility
change and expressed in terms of GDP per capita.
Time mismatch: labor market eects, a higher tax base
in the future, but also an immediate higher government spending.
Beneciary mismatch: public and private benets and
costs of raised fertility (also adjusting to expected fertility).
Does it matter what kind of policy we do?
051015
Frequency
0 .05 .1 .15
% of GDP
intensive margin extensive margin
final fertility 1.50
051015
Frequency
.25 .3 .35 .4
% of GDP
intensive margin extensive margin
final fertility 1.85
scal gains are universal
scal gains are respon-
sive to the distribution of
children across households
(on the extensive margin)
Result 2: negative welfare eects crucial margin adjustment
−0.0024%−0.0008%0%
1.4 1.6 1.8 2
target completed fertility
intensive margin extensive margin
Do I prefer to live in the world with increased fertility? No.
Welfare eects expressed as a discounted expected utility
in the form of a consumption equivalent.
Individual welfare is not particularly responsive to the
population dynamics, the welfare eects of raised fertility are
small. Nonetheless, they are universally negative.
Does it matter what kind of policy we do?
051015
Frequency
−.002 −.001 0 .001
intensive margin extensive margin
final fertility 1.50
051015
Frequency
−.002 −.001 0
intensive margin extensive margin
final fertility 1.85
welfare eects depend on
the distribution of children
across households (− / +)
welfare eects are re-
sponsive to the distribution
of children across families
(on the extensive margin)
Demography scenarios
Baseline scenario
• status quo projection provided by Polish
CSO (mortality projection until 2060)
• initial steady state: population and house-
holds structure replicated from the data
• the completed fertility continues at 1.4
Raised fertility scenarios (≈ 1000 simulations)
• scenarios distinguished by nal completed
fertility level, ranging from 1.4 to 2.1
• for each targeted fertility scenario two alter-
native margin adjustments: an intensive and
extensive margin adjustment
• check 1: 100 combinations of dierent fam-
ily structures × each targeted fertility sce-
nario × both margin adjustments
• check 2 : dierent initial steady state fertility
The model
Households consist of children (0, 1, 2, 3+) and
two individuals: one is a primary care-giver with
lower labor endowment. Households are formed
when individuals are young and the number of
children is exogenous. While making decisions
on consumption and labor, households face a
cohort-specic mortality rates.
Individuals work until retirement, pay taxes
(on labor income, capital income and consump-
tion) and contribute to the pension system
(dened contribution PAYG). Their consumption
adjust to reect the equivalence scale.
Government collects taxes, nances govern-
ment expenditures (xed per capita) and operates
pension system.
Production sector employs labor and use
capital to produce output, consumed by the
households.
Conclusions:
• Fiscal: the universal net surplus in government budget, but far less than costly natalistic policies
• Welfare: the universal (but small) negative welfare eect of raised fertility:
• Margin adjustment: it matters what kind of a policy is introduced and whom it addresses
Acknowledgements
We would like to thank A. Matysiak, H. Fehr, R. Beetsma and
I. Kotowska for extremely valuable comments. The support of
National Science Centre (grant UMO-2014/13/B/HS4/03643)
is greatly acknowledged. All opinions are ours and have not been
endorsed by NSC nor NBP. The remaining errors are also ours.