The document discusses the EuFMD Impact Calculator, which is a tool for estimating the costs of a potential foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) outbreak. It describes the calculator's development and components, which include epidemiological modeling, economic modeling, and consideration of qualitative impacts. The document then walks through a hypothetical outbreak scenario in Country X to demonstrate how the calculator can be used to evaluate different control strategies and their costs and resource needs. It encourages users to experiment with changing variables, like probabilities of eradication or animal values, to understand their effects.

1. EuFMD Impact Calculator
Malin Grant, Swedish Board of Agriculture

2. Objectives
• Inform about the FMD Impact
Calculator trial version available
for use
• Ask you to use it and provide
feedback
• This workshop
• Current scenario
• Other scenario
• Back in your country

3. What was the cost of the FMD outbreak
in UK 2001?
a. Approximately GBP 7 billion
b. Approximately GBP 1 billion
c. Approximately GBP 11 billion

5. Why is it helpful to know the estimated cost of
an outbreak in your country?

6. Foot-and-Mouth Disease Impact
Calculator
Developed by:
Jonathan Rushton, João Afonso, Nick
Lyons, Theo Knight Jones, Will Gilbert
Questions:
J.Rushton@liverpool.ac.uk

7. The Rationale
Decision Analysis
Can the epidemy be controlled quickly?
Yes
No
Is the strategy working?
Yes
No
Control and eradica on
strategy decision matrix
Informa on matrices
Virus type and early epidemic caractaris cs
Livestock systems Rural economy
Exports
Stamping
out
strategy
Epidemiological
model
Strategy
Retain
strategyReassess the
situa on and
strategy
Costs
Logis cs/
Resources
Economics
model
Decision analysis matrix in an outbreak situation (Rushton, J.)

8. The FMD Impact Calculator is developed to
assist in the decision-making on FMD control in
a country which is (previously) free from FMD

9. FMD Impact Calculator – in summary
• Deterministic economic model
• Designed to be used both in
• contingency planning and
• during an outbreak
• Uses readily available data
• Simple method
• Quick assessment
• User friendly
• Qualitative assessment of indirect effects on the
wider economy

10. The Rationale
Infected
Outbreak
At high risk of infection
Outbreak
Region
1
Region
3
Region
2
Region
4
Region
5
Region
7
Region
6
Region
8
Region
10
Region
9
Region
1
Region
3
Region
2
Region
4
Region
5
Region
7
Region
6
Region
8
Region
10
Region
9
Region
9
Region
6
Region
7
Region
10
Infected
At high risk
of infec on
Hypothetical outbreak situation
Scenario from likely outbreak based on
• epidemiological model,
• expert opinion or
• current outbreak

11. Control Strategies
+
+
-

12. The Rationale
Infected
Outbreak
At high risk of infection
Outbreak
Region
1
Region
3
Region
2
Region
4
Region
5
Region
7
Region
6
Region
8
Region
10
Region
9
Region
1
Region
3
Region
2
Region
4
Region
5
Region
7
Region
6
Region
8
Region
10
Region
9
Region
9
Region
6
Region
7
Region
10
Infected
At high risk
of infec on
Hypothetical outbreak situation
For each strategy the estimated likelihood of eradication is inserted
into the calculator

13. The Model

14. 7 data groups:
1. Country Data
2. Animal Population Data
3. Data on the outbreak
4. Data on different scenarios according to outbreak response
strategy
5. Data on outbreak response strategy
6. Data on production
7. Data on staff, equipment and consumables
The Model – Input Sheet

15. The Model – Input Sheet

16. The Model – Output Sheet
1. Animal population affected
2. Costs
3. Resources needed
4. Decision Tree

17. The Model – Output Sheet

18. The Model – Output Sheet

19. The Model – Output Sheet

20. The Model – Output Sheet

21. The Model – Output Sheet

22. The Model – Qualitative Matrix Sheet

23. The Model – Qualitative Matrix Sheet
Minor =1 Moderate = 2 Major = 3 Catastrophic = 4
Very likely = 4 M H E E
Likely = 3 M H H E
Possible = 2 L M H E
Unlikely = 1 L L M H
Key:
L = Low concern
M = Moderate concern
H = High concern
E = Extreme concern
Likelihood
Consequences

24. The Model – Qualitative Matrix Sheet
Minor =1 Moderate = 2 Major = 3 Catastrophic = 4
Very likely = 4 M H E E
Likely = 3 M H H E
Possible = 2 L M H E
Unlikely = 1 L L M H
Key:
L = Low concern
M = Moderate concern
H = High concern
E = Extreme concern
Likelihood
Consequences

25. A few things to remember...
• Workshop aims to teach use of modeling in decision making
• AADIS and Impact calculator are a bit of black box
– And thats OK..... FOR THIS WORKSHOP!
– If you are using a model to make decisions, you should
understand assumptions and how it is working behind the
scenes (ie representing animal movements, transmission etc etc)
– You can learn more about AADIS at the optional ‘under-the-hood’
session on Wednesday evening

26. Objectives
• Inform about the FMD Impact
Calculator trial version available
for use
• Ask you to use it and provide
feedback
• This workshop
• Current scenario
• Other scenario
• Back in your country

27. Case study- hypothetical scenario
• Country X
• 4 regions
• Officially Free of FMD
• Outbreak detected in the Northern region
• Area where most of the bovine population is located (70% of
total), as well as an important goat population (40% of total)
• In the Northern region:
– 30% of the cattle population is infected, and 60% at risk
– 2% of the goat population is infected and 40% at risk

28. Case study- hypothetical scenario
• North region: intensive livestock production;
• West region: moderately intensive;
• South: less intensive
Animal population at risk in the south
– 30% of cattle
– 20% of sheep
– 20% of goats
Animal population at risk in the West
– 10% of cattle
– 3% of sheep
– 6% of goats

29. Case study- hypothetical scenario
• What if the probabilities of successful eradication
were different?
• Why do slaughter strategies result in such large
losses?
• What if:
• Cattle were not so valuable?
• Vaccine was more expensive?

30. ExCom88
THANK YOU FOR
YOUR ATTENTION!