Estimating Public Intangibles in Real Time. Society for Economic Measurement Annual Conference Thessaloniki (Greece), July 6th- 8th, 2016

1. Estimating Public Intangibles in Real Time
F. Bacchini (Istat), Rome
R. Iannaccone, (Istat), Rome
Society for Economic Measurement Annual Conference
Thessaloniki (Greece), July 6th- 8th, 2016
This project has received funding from the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme for
research, technological development and demonstration under grant agreement No. 612774
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2. Outline
• Timeliness problem and data available (nominal investment)
• Information set and methodology for real time estimation
• Estimation for Italy
• Robustness check
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3. Information set for intagibles: dierent across assets ...
Introduction of SNA 2008 ESA 2010, RD is now classied as
investment
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4. ...and across countries
USA: Intangible Investment as
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5. What we have: use table 2012 (for some asset)
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6. What we have: information set after 2012 -1
Total intermediate consumption for industry
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7. What we have: information set after 2012 - 2
Annual account for institutional sector
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8. What we have: information set after 2012 - 3
Turnover in services quarterly data
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9. Methodology - step 1
Estimation for industry
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10. Methodology - step 1
Estimation for asset - total industry
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11. Methodology - step 2
estimation product using STS+NA (hours worked in training)
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12. Methodology - step 3
average from step 1-2
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13. Robustness check
Estimation vs. real data - Italy
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14. Final results
Italy intangibles estimation 2010-2015
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15. Further steps
• Complete real time estimation for European countries including
also assets as RD
• extend a rolling robustness check (for example now 2011-2012) to
improve estimation performance
• extend the approach to market sector
• create a short-term index for intangibles
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