NIFTY FIFTY : - Indian Bench mark Index Nifty 50 closed at 8935 after making a high of 8978and a low of 8892 on last week, and opened on a positive note on Monday trading session at 9091 up by 157 points or 1.72 per cent.
Regression analysis: Simple Linear Regression Multiple Linear Regression
Equity Research Report 20 March 2017 Ways2Capital
1.
2. TECHNICAL TREND ( NIFTY - BANK NIFTY FUTURES )
NIFTY FIFTY : - Indian Bench mark Index Nifty 50 closed at 8935 after making a high of 8978
and a low of 8892 on last week, and opened on a positive note on Monday trading session at 9091
up by 157 points or 1.72 per cent. The Nifty 50 opened above its all time high of 9119 gave a big
salute to Narendra Modi led BJP government win in India biggest state UP. The BJP government got
325 seats out of 403 seats in the state. The market opened with euphoric buying sentiment and fresh
buying trapped. The BJP’s clear sweep in UP was a big positive surprise for the market Nifty was
trading all time high up by 150 points. Apart from Indian politics, market also get impacted on the
revival WPI & CPI data along with hosts of global Geo-political & central banks events. Now all
major events like UP Polls and US Fed Interest Rate hike have been finished which will remove
Uncertainty from the markets and Indian Stock Market would head towards new highs. Nifty would
move positive and traders should hold long positions or go long at every dip in the market. 9011
would be crucial level Down side for Nifty Market would remain buy on dips until 9011 levels.
Time and Price action suggests that, Nifty has to sustain over 9145 area for further rally towards
9207-9238 in the short term. The Crucial levels for Nifty 9120-8980 is Down side and 9220-9248 is
Up side..
BANK NIFTY : - The Banking stocks Index Bank Nifty closed at 20727 on Friday after making a
high of 20877, the index made a low of 20648. Index also opened gap up at 21190 and made an all
time high of 21274 & closed at 21103, which is 375 points high from its previous day’s close of
20728. ICICI Bank rose by 6.17% which was the top mover in the Banking Index. The other banks
like HDFC Bank was up by 0.76% , SBIN by 0.96%, Kotak Bank by 0.87% and Yes Bank by
3.40%. The Bad loans of public sector banks rose by over Rs. 1 lakh crore during April-December
period of 2016-17. Bank Nifty would move towards the level of 21500-22000 soon, Bank Nifty has
to sustain over 21400 area for further rally towards 21500-21675 & 21855-21950 in the near term.
On the other side, sustaining below 21350 area, Bank Nifty may fall towards 21200-21100 &
21000-20900 in the near term.
Monday, 20 March 2017
4. PATTERN FORMATION ( NIFTY )
Detail of Chart - On the Above given daily Chart of Nifty has Applied Bollinger Band as well as
Parabolic SAR both the indicators are indicating bullish rally in the Market. Time & Price action
suggests that, Nifty has to sustain over 9180 area for further rally towards 9240-99280 for the
upcoming week. Technically , Bollinger Band Suggest that the Market will move toward new high.
Upper Band of Bollinger Band becoming on 9190 to 9200 in Nifty which both surface can be
considered as the Near Resistance. If break this level lift the higher Nifty in Near term. 9180-9220
would be Significance Resistance levels for Index and 8980-8946 is Significance Support.
5. PATTERN FORMATION ( BANK NIFTY )
Detail of Chart - On the Above given daily Chart of Bank Nifty has Applied the Bollinger Band
as well as Parabolic SAR. The Bank Nifty Chart is clearly showing up side movement the Upper
Band of Bollinger Band indicating Bullish wave in the Market. If the Bank Nifty able to Sustain
the 21200 level will move toward 21600-21800 levels. The support for Bank Nifty is at
21120-21000-20950-20850 and the resistance to the up move is at 21250-21380-21500-21720
levels.
9. NSE - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS
✍ TOP NEWS OF THE WEEK
Arun Jaitley meets FinMin's consultative committee, discusses banks' bad loans - The
government is taking sector-specific measures to deal with bad loans, especially the resolution
of large debts, and may include setting up of more oversight committees, as initiated by the
Reserve Bank of India, for faster settlement of such cases. RBI has made an oversight
committee to look into process of cases referred to it by different banks. Seeing the response
and its performance, the government is considering multiplication of such committees," finance
minister Arun Jaitley told the first meeting of his ministry's consultative committee on
Wednesday, which discussed non-performing assets. According to a finance ministry noted
statement, Jaitley said the core problem of non-performing assets was with very large
companies - although few - mainly in steel, power, textile and core sectors.
Corporate debt pie grows by 15 per cent as on December 31 - India’s corporate debt market
has grown significantly in the past few years. Total outstanding debt posted a trend growth of 15
per cent to Rs. 106.88 lakh crore as on December 31, 2016, from Rs. 45.31 lakh crore as on
March 31, 2011. But most of the issuers are top-rated firms. With limited investor interest,
lower rated issuers continue to rely on the banking sector to meet their funding requirements.
Such issuers are in the infrastructure and other capital-intensive sectors.
Exports jump 17% to $ 24.5 billion in February; trade deficit widens - India’s merchandise
exports registered double-digit growth in February for the first time since the Narendra Modi
government took office, on the back of a 47% rise in engineering goods and improved
international demand. Some analysts say it could be the highest growth witnessed in about five
years. Exports swelled by 17.48% in February to $24.5 billion but a steeper increase in imports
at 21% widened the trade deficit to $ 8.8 billion — from $ 6.5 billion in the year-ago period.
This is the sixth consecutive month of an increase in exports this year but double digits were last
seen in June 2014. “In continuation with the revival since September 2016, exports during
February for the first time exhibited a double-digit positive growth... Overall, trade balance has
improved,” noted a commerce and industry ministry statement. The month saw 23 of 30
exporting sectors, led by iron ore, registering more exports.
Governement launches Rs. 600 crore scheme for developing export infrastructure - The
government today launched a Rs. 600-crore scheme - TIES - for developing export linked
infrastructure in states with a view to promoting outbound shipments. Launched by Commerce
10. and Industry Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, the Trade Infrastructure for Export Scheme seeks to
bridge the infrastructure gap and provide forward and backward linkages to units engaged in
trade activities. The scheme, to be implemented from April 1, would have a budgetary allocation
of Rs. 600 crore for three years with an annual outlay of Rs. 200 crore. Five per cent of the grant
approved would be used for appraisal, review and monitoring. It will be implemented from
2017-18 till 2019-20.
Indian economy to pick up once impact of note ban fades: IMF - India's economic growth is
expected to pick up once the effects of cash shortages linked to the currency exchange initiative
fade, the International Monetary Fund has said. Prime Minister Narendra Modi on November 8
had announced scrapping of old Rs 500 and Rs 1000 notes, pulling out 86 per cent of the total
currency in circulation. Noting that India's fiscal deficit is expected to continue narrowing in the
Near-Term, the IMF in its note titled 'Global Prospects and Policy Challenges' said, "Further
subsidy reduction and tax reforms, including a robust design and full implementation of the
Goods and Services Tax, are necessary to attain medium-term fiscal consolidation plans.
State election results to facilitate reforms: Moody's - Global credit rating agency Moody's
Investor's Service on Wednesday said the recent state election results will facilitate reforms by
the BJP led Indian government. In a statement Moody's said the 2017 state election results
demonstrate broad-based popular support for the Indian government's policy agenda and will
facilitate the implementation of further reforms, a credit positive for the sovereign. Moody's said
the Bharatiya Janata Party has made substantial gains in the state elections. As a result, the party
will increase its share of seats in the upper house of India's parliament. The ruling party will not
feel the benefit of its electoral gains immediately, because the changes in the upper house will
only occur next year, when some members retire," said William Foster, a Moody's Vice
President and Senior Credit Officer.
Retail Inflation increases to 3.65 per cent in Feb, WPI at 6.55 per cent - Firmer food and
fuel prices drove India’s overall inflation higher in February, further dimming any possibility of
a cut in interest rate by the Reserve Bank of India amid worries of hardening global commodity
prices and expectation of vegetables turning dearer as summer approaches. India’s headline
inflation rate based on the Consumer Price Index went up to was 3.65 per cent in February
compared with 3.17 per cent in January and 5.26 per cent a year ago, data released by statistics
office showed on Tuesday. Data released by the commerce and industry ministry showed India’s
wholesale inflation firming up to a 39-month high of 6.55 per cent in February from 5.25 per
cent in January. The increase in prices may weaken the case for an immediate interest rate cut
by the RBI, which had kept lending rates unchanged at the last review in February, citing risks
to inflation. The next meeting of the monetary policy committee is scheduled for April 5-6.
11. Fed rate hike to have minimal impact on RBI policy: India Inc - The interest rate hike by
the US Fed is not likely to create much volatility in Indian markets and will have only a
minimal impact on the RBI's monetary policy stance, industry bodies said today. Ficci said the
monetary policy stance of the RBI is likely to be determined by a host of factors, the Fed rate
hike being one of them. "Since Fed rate hike is not expected to create much volatility in the
Indian markets, this should have minimal influence on RBI's policy stance," the chamber said in
a statement. It hoped that RBI will adopt an accommodative stance in its forthcoming monetary
policy, scheduled to be announced on April 6. It also said that the Fed rate hike is not likely to
have any significant impact on the Indian economy. While there could be some capital outflows,
India is expected to be least impacted amongst the emerging markets," it added.
✍ TOP ECONOMY NEWS
Hitting a 40-month high, India's wholesale inflation rose 6.55% in February led by higher fuel
and power prices even as food prices began to rise. Wholesale price inflation had risen 5.25% in
January and declined 0.85% in February last year, data released by the commerce and industry
ministry showed on Tuesday.
A report by the Comptroller and Auditor General on direct taxes, tabled in Parliament last week,
has criticised the Income Tax department for being selective in picking up cases, while ignoring
thousands of shell companies engaged in money laundering in the commercial hub of Mumbai
which were detected by other enforcement agencies.
The GDP data based on 2011-12 base year does not reflect the momentum of economic
activities across the spectrum and a more realistic methodology is required, says a
Parliamentary panel. The Parliamentary Standing Committee on Finance in its report on the
Statistics Ministry tabled in Parliament also pointed out that several experts have expressed the
possibility of over estimation of GDP for 2016-17 in the wake of demonetisation.
Currency in circulation has risen 13.5% in one month between February 10 and March 10 and
is at Rs. 12.46 lakh crore as of March 10, according to latest Reserve Bank of India data. Even
as normalcy was expected by February end, at the current levels, the total currency in
circulation is at 70% of the early November levels before the Reserve Bank of India banned Rs.
500 and Rs. 1000 notes as legal currency.
The government has issued revised demand-cum-show cause notices for Rs. 30,776 crore to 6
telecom firms for under-reporting revenues in four fiscal's up to 2009-10, Parliament was
12. informed. Department of Telecom revised and issued demand cum show cause notices to six
Telecom service providers for a total amount of Rs 30,776 crore (Rs 29,474 crore as licence fee
and Rs 1,302 crore as spectrum usage charges), Telecom Minister Manoj Sinha said in a written
reply to Lok Sabha.
The GST Council is likely to endorse tomorrow supplementary legislations needed for
implementation of the Goods and Service Tax regime. The Council, headed by Finance Minister
Arun Jaitley and comprising representatives of all states, may also take up capping the cess to
be levied on demerit goods like luxury cars and tobacco products for creation of a corpus that
will be used for compensating states for any loss of revenue from GST implementation in the
first five years.
Divergence in movements of wholesale prices and retail prices explains non-alignment of
manufacturing output Gross Domestic Product with the Index of Industrial Production , a report
by ratings firm Crisil said.
The Goods and Services Tax Council on Thursday capped the proposed cess on aerated drinks
and luxury Automobiles at 15% and 290% on cigarettes and also approved the State GST and
Union Territory GST laws.
The telecom regulator is reviewing “procedural issues” in the sector to make it more business
friendly, its chairman said. “In the consultation paper floated by us on March 14, we are looking
at the procedural and not the policy issues,” Telecom Regulatory Authority of India’s RS
Sharma said.
A Parliamentary panel has suggested the government to tread with caution in strategic
divestment and shutting down sick public sector units and also asked it to provide reasonable
and financially prudent chances for their revival. In its report, the Department Related
Parliamentary Standing Committee on Industry said it is always prudent to keep in mind that
Central Public Sector Enterprises are also meant to serve certain larger social causes.
The interest rate hike by the US Fed is not likely to create much volatility in Indian markets and
will have only a minimal impact on the RBI's monetary policy stance, industry bodies said.
13. ✍ TOP CORPORATE NEWS -
Reliance Group company, Reliance Capital Limited is planning to separate out its retail Health
Insurance business, into a standalone, wholly owned subsidiary of its General Insurance
business.
Manpasand Beverages Limited, one of India’s leading fruit juice players, is aggressively
expanding its reach in Tamil Nadu to take advantage of the ongoing cola ban in the state.
HCL Technologies Limited company on Wednesday announced that it will be considering buy
back of its shares. The board of directors of the company are going to meet on March 20 to
consider a proposal for buyback of the equity shares.
In order to counter Reliance Jio, Idea Cellular Limited has partnered with Itel to provide
Indian telecom users1GB of free data every month for 6 months. The offer can be availed on
selected smartphones by Itel only.
Prabhat Dairy Limited promoters have increased their stake in the company by 4.57% to
45.49%. The promoters through creeping acquisition in the last two months have increased their
stake. The promoters owned, Nirmal Family Trust has acquired 44.72 lakh shares for about Rs.
58 crore.
The crude steel production of JSW Steel Limited went up nearly 25% to 12.65 lakh tonnes in
February month as compared 10.13 lakh tonnes in the month of February last year. Flat rolled
steel products in February month soared 23.1% to 8.96 lakh tonnes as against 7.28 lakh tonnes
in the month of February last year.
Wipro Limited has announced that the company has bagged a 12 year contract from NHS
Scotland. The contract is to build a next generation Enterprise Master Patient Index solution.
The Information Technology giant is partnering with NextGate to enable the eMPI solution in
Scotland.
Pharma majors, Alkem Laboratories Limited jumped over 3% on Wednesday, after getting
approval from US FDA. The US drug regulator approved the Exemestane tablets of Mylan,
which is a partner of Biocon. These tablets are used to treat breast cancer. Whereas, the
regulator gave a nod for Lidocaine ointment of Alkem Labs, which is used to treat ventricular
tachycardia.
14. The Bharat Heavy Electricals Limited has commenced commercial operation of 800 MW
unit- highest rated coal based thermal plant. The milestone was achieved for the first unit of
Yeramarus thermal power station of Raichur Power Corporation in Karnataka.
IndusInd Bank Limited has informed that it will acquire 100% stake in Infrastructure Leasing
and Financial Services. IndusInd Bank is already one of the strong players in the capital market
business, with a client base of more than 500 brokers.
Telecom operator Bharti Airtel Limited has shelved plans to sell controlling stake in its mobile
tower arm Bharti Infratel but has decided to monetise 21.63 per cent equity in the company.
Kalpataru Power Transmission Limited, which has so far enjoyed a strong foothold in
engineering jobs for the power transmission sector, is scaling up its business in pipeline and
railways-related jobs to offset the slowdown in domestic orders. The company expects to grow
at 15-20 per cent with operating margins of around 11 per cent in the current fiscal to March and
in the next year 2017-18.
Larsen & Toubro's electrical and automation unit has bagged an order worth Rs 500 crore
Qatar Rail Company for Phase 1 of Doha Metro, the engineering major said in a release on
Thursday.
Indian multinational oil and gas company head quartered in Dehradun, Oil and Natural Gas
Corporation Limited will invest over Rs. 21500 crore to develop India’s deepest gas discovery
by 2022-23.
Lupin Limited announced today the launch of Mibelas™ 24 Fe (Norethindrone Acetate and
Ethinyl Estradiol Chewable Tablets, 1 mg/0.02 mg and Ferrous Fumarate Tablets, 75 mg)
having received an approval from the USFDA.
Kalpataru Power Transmission to offset the slowdown in domestic orders the company is
scaling up its business in the pipeline and railways-related jobs. The company so far for the
power sector enjoyed a strong foothold in engineering jobs. A growth of 15-20% is expected
with operating margins of nearly 11% in the current fiscal to March and in the next year
2017-18.
15. ✍ TOP BANKING AND FINANCIAL NEWS OF THE WEEK
As the Indian regulatory environment gets stricter by the day, there is need to get the balance
right with respect to the intersection of board and management for handling future changes
Arundhati Bhattacharya, Chairman, State Bank of India said.
The government is expected to initiate reforms in the financial sector soon, starting with merger
of Bharatiya Mahila Bank with State Bank of India, India’s largest lender. Other key decisions
that may be unveiled over the next 2-3 months include new capital infusion parameters for
2017-18, a consolidation road map for state-run banks and insurance firms and steps to resolve
stressed assets.
Bad loans of public sector banks rose by over Rs. 1 lakh crore during April-December period of
2016-17, the bulk of which came from power, steel, road infrastructure and textiles sectors.
Public sector banks' gross bad loans stood at Rs 5,02,068 crore at the end of 2015-16.
State Bank of India chairperson Arundhati Bhattacharya blamed the governance at Public
Sector Banks for poor investor appetite for them and their resultant inability to raise cheaper
funds from markets.
Five public sector banks have been permitted by the government to raise Rs. 949.27 crore from
the markets. Allahabad Bank, United Bank, Bank of India, UCO Bank and
Central Bank are the banks which are to raise Rs. 949.27 crore via preferential shares from
markets, said the Minister of State Finance, Santosh Kumar Gangwar, in a written reply to the
Rajya Sabha.
Banks Board Bureau chairman Vinod Rai wrote a strongly worded letter to the Finance
Ministry and the Prime Minister's Office highlighting the lack of action by banks on bad loans
and suggesting a possible way ahead, said two officials with knowledge of the matter. The
letters were sent earlier this month after a meeting on bad loans at the PMO that was also
attended by Rai.
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