NIFTY FIFTY : - The Indian Benchmark Index Nifty closed in green after consecutive 4 days of negative close In last week. The Index moved up by 74 points and closed at 9852. Nifty opened at 9803 and made a low
of 9787. Metals & Minnig remained the top performing sector. Indian Benchmark Index Nifty gave a lackluster
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Equity Research Report 04 September 2017 Ways2Capital
1.
2. TECHNICAL TREND ( NIFTY - BANK NIFTY FUTURES )
NIFTY FIFTY : - The Indian Benchmark Index Nifty closed in green after consecutive 4 days of negative
close In last week. The Index moved up by 74 points and closed at 9852. Nifty opened at 9803 and made a low
of 9787. Metals & Minnig remained the top performing sector. Indian Benchmark Index Nifty gave a lackluster
movement ahead of 3 days holiday on Ganesh Chaturthi and Weekend. The index closed 9857 after making
low of 9849; Nifty made a high of 9882 and opened at 9881. Indian Benchmark Index Nifty opened at 9886
and closed at 9794 after making low of 9784. The Index ended 117 points lower from its previous close of
9912. The Sell Off pressure was generated on rising geopolitical concern from North Korea. North Korea fired
a missile that flew over Japan, however the execution did not cost any sort of loss to mankind and property.
The 40 companies has been sent to National Company law Tribunal as these companies loans turned to NPA
since 2016. Indian Benchmark Index Nifty rallied for the second day and closed at 9917, 33 points above its
wednesday’s close of 9884. The Index opened at 9906 and made a high 9925. The Index has closed above its
week one high of 9884, immediate target for the Index is at 9948 which is a two week high of Nifty. The Indian
gross domestic product GDP grew 5.7 percent in April-June, badly lower than last years 7.9 percent expansion
in the same quarter where in previous quarters 6.1 percent growth, this signals that India is still under the
pressure of demonetisation and GSTs effect on business. Time & Price action suggests that, The Nifty has to
sustain over 9980 area for further rally towards 10030-10075. On the flip side, sustaining below 9960 area,
Nifty may fall towards 9905-9800- 9750 area in the short term.
BANK NIFTY : - Bank Nifty too gave a lackluster movement and closed at 24274 after making a low of
24225. Canara Bank up by 1.5%, Bank Baroda zoomed by 1.35% and SBI moved up by 1.20%. Bank Nifty
closed at 24317 after making a high of 24350, the Index opened at 24085 and made a low of 24074. PNB Bank
rose 3.33%, Canara Bank jumped 2.60%, IDFC Bank moved up by 2.20%. Bank Nifty opened at 24351 and
closed at 24377 after making a low of 24301. The index was up by 103 points from its previous close of 24274.
Bank Nifty opened at 24253 and closed at 24309 after making a low of 24241. The Index was up by 180 points
from its previous close of 24129. Bank Nifty opened around its 5 High DMA 24355 approx the 31st of August.
The Index traded in a narrow range of 147 points throughout the day and closed marginally above the 5 DMA
of 24281 approx. Public sector banks have taken loan recovery action under Sarfaesi law against 5,954 wilful
defaulters owing about Rs 70,000 crore to the lenders. At the end of March 31, 2017, 21 banks together have
taken action against 5,954 wilful defaulter under Securitisation and Reconstruction of Financial Assets and
Enforcement of Security Interest Act, as per data collated by the Finance Ministry.Bank Nifty has to sustain
over 24400 area for further rally towards 24525-24575 & 24675- 24775. On the flip side, sustaining below
24350 area, Bank may fall towards 24200-24000 & 23850-23700 area in the near term.
Monday, 4 Sep 2017
4. PATTERN FORMATION ( NIFTY )
Detail of Chart - Nifty breaks out of the Symmetrical triangle in the last hour, however it
couldn’t breach the important 200 Hourly moving average at approx. 9924, which acted as a
strong Resistance in the hourly chart.There is a possibility that Nifty may see some consolidation
in the coming days. This is the third time in the last 20 days that Nifty couldn’t breach 200
Hourly moving average at approx. 9924. Price movement in any direction will decide Nifty’s
move in the coming days. So this is an important level to watch out for. On the upside, Nifty may
face resistance at 200 Hourly Moving Average at approx. 9986, 61.8% retracement at approx.
9965 and 78.6% retracement at approx. 10041 of the down move from approx. 10137.9 to approx.
9687.5. The probable support in the hourly chart comes at 20 Hour Moving Average at approx.
9868) and 100 Hour moving average at approx. 9841.
5. PATTERN FORMATION ( BANK NIFTY )
Detail of Chart -Bank Nifty opened around its 5 High DMA 24355 approx the 31st of August.
The Index traded in a narrow range of 147 points throughout the day and closed marginally above
the 5 DMA of around 24281. In the Hourly Chart, Bank Nifty has closed around its 5 Hour High
EMA of 24315 around. The Index is likely to face immediate Resistance around the 5 Hour High
EMA 24348 around mark. Bank Nifty has to close convincingly above 24379 for the Bulls to
retain the stakes in their favor.
9. NSE - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS
✍ TOP NEWS OF THE WEEK
Economics for Everyone: Purchasing Managers' Index - The Purchasing Managers' Index is
an indicator of the economic health of the manufacturing sector. The PMI is based on five major
indicators: new orders, inventory levels, production, supplier deliveries and the employment
environment. The purpose of the PMI is to provide information about current business conditions
to company decision makers, analysts and purchasing managers. Purchasing Managers Indexes
are economic indicators derived from monthly surveys of private sector companies. The data for
the index are collected through a survey of 400 purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector
on different fields, namely, production level, new orders from customers, speed of supplier
deliveries, inventories, order backlogs and employment level. Respondents can report better,
same or worse conditions than previous months. For all these fields the percentage of respondents
that reported better conditions than the previous months is calculated. The percentages are
multiplied by a weighing factor and are added.
FDI flows into India to rise to 2.5% of GDP in 5 years: UBS - : FDI inflows into the country is
likely to rise to 2.5 per cent of GDP over the next five years, helped by economic growth and
ongoing structural reforms, said a report by UBS Securities India. The foreign direct investments
into India have nearly doubled over the past decade to USD 42 billion, which was 1.9 per cent of
GDP in 2016-17. "Post 2014 general election, FDI inflows saw a compound annual growth rate of
11 per cent versus a dip of 6 per cent seen over the previous 5 years," UBS said. "We expect FDI
inflows to India to rise further to 2.5 per cent of GDP over the next 5 years," added the foreign
brokerage. UBS noted that unlike China, where the government has phased out FDI-favoured
policies, India will be increasingly recognised as a favoured destination by overseas investors "if
growth is accompanied with continuous structural reforms". Interestingly, the report said that over
the last couple of years, India has recorded a pickup in FDI inflows to the manufacturing sector.
Historically such investments have been more towards the service sector.
Fiscal deficit touches 92.4 per cent of budget estimates at July-end - India’s fiscal deficit in
July end came at Rs 5.05 lakh crore or 92.4% of the budgetary estimates for 2017-18 as against
73.7% in the corresponding period last fiscal. For this fiscal, the government has set a target of
3.2% of the GDP. The fiscal deficit is the gap between expenditure and revenue, which for the
whole fiscal has been pegged at Rs 5.46 lakh crore. Experts point out that the increase in
government’s expenditure is mostly due to the early presentation of the budget and subsequent
front-loading.The government’s capital expenditure rose by a robust 33% in the first four months
of this fiscal. Moreover, major subsidies are estimated to have grown by 30% in the same time
10. period,” said Aditi Nayar, Principal Economist, ICRA Ltd. The government's revenue receipts
improved at Rs 2.91 lakh crore during April-July period, which works out to be 19.2% of the
target of Rs 15.15 lakh crore for the whole year. In the comparable period last fiscal, revenue
receipts comprising taxes and other items were 18.6 % of the target.
FDI jumps 37% to $10.4 billion during April-June 2017 - Foreign direct investment into the
country grew by 37 per cent to USD 10.4 billion during the first quarter of the current fiscal,
DIPP said today. According to the figures of the Department of Industrial Policy and Promotion,
India had received USD 7.59 billion FDI during April-June 2016-17. The main sectors which
attracted the highest foreign inflows include services, telecom, trading, computer hardware and
software and automobile. Bulk of the FDI came in from Singapore, Mauritius, the Netherlands
and Japan. The government has announced several steps to attract foreign inflows. The measures
include liberalisation of FDI policy and improvement in business climate. Foreign investments
are considered crucial for India, which needs around USD 1 trillion for overhauling its
infrastructure sector such as ports, airports and highways to boost growth. A strong inflow of
foreign investments will help improve the country s balance of payments situation and strengthen
the rupee value against other global currencies, especially the US dollar. The DIPP through its
'Make in India' twitter handle also stated that FDI equity inflow in manufacturing sector grew by
31 per cent to USD 4.19 billion during April-June this fiscal.
Tepid credit growth: RBI data missing non-bank, debt markets - Though there's no denying
that credit growth continues to decline, the RBI data on sectoral credit growth shows only one
side of the story as credit per se has been expanding through non-banking channels, primarily in
the debt market, said a report. During the week to August 4, there was an incremental credit de-
growth of Rs 1.1 trillion, according to the RBI data. This comes after a record low full year credit
growth in FY17 when credit growth slipped to the lowest in the past six decades at 5.1 per cent.
This was the lowest since fiscal 1953 when it grew a tepid 1.8 per cent. "Sectors reporting decline
in loan funds in listed corporates may contradict with increase exhibited in RBI sectoral credit
deployment, but this only shows that credit has flown to unlisted MSMEs. Overall, this augurs
well for banks who are de-risking and reworking their model for a better tomorrow," said the
report.
India Inc overseas direct investment plunges 47% to $1.77 billion - India Inc's overseas direct
investment fell over 47 per cent to USD 1.77 billion during July 2017, the RBI data showed
today. Indian companies had invested USD 3.35 billion in the same month of last year. Of the
total investments in foreign ventures by Indian companies overseas, USD 900.66 million was in
the form of issuance of guarantee, USD 513.81 million as loan and USD 353.55 million was part
of equity investment. In preceding month June 2017, the outward foreign direct investment stood
11. at USD 1.11 billion. Among major investors, SAS Hotels and Enterprises put in USD 360 million
into a wholly owned subsidiary in Singapore; Intas Pharmaceuticals USD 68.66 million in two
separate tranches in wholly owned units in Spain and the UK. While ONGC Videsh Ltd invested
a sum of USD 51.88 million in its various joint ventures located in Vietnam, Russia and
Myanmar.
Quarterly headline inflation in first half to be between 2-3.5%: RBI - The Reserve Bank of
India, in its second bi-monthly Monetary Policy Committee meeting, has projected quarterly
average headline inflation in the range of 2-3.5 per cent in the first half of the year and 3.5-4.5 per
cent in the second half. In its outlook, the central bank said the actual outcome for the first quarter
has tracked projections. Looking ahead, as base effects fade, the evolving momentum of inflation
would be determined by the impact on the CPI of the implementation of house rent allowances
under the 7th central pay commission; the impact of the price revisions withheld ahead of the
GST and the disentangling of the structural and transitory factors shaping food inflation," said the
minutes of the meeting -- held on August 1-2 -- which were published on Wednesday. The
inflation trajectory has been updated taking into account all these factors and incorporates the first
round impact of the implementation of the HRA award by the Centre, RBI said.
✍ TOP ECONOMY NEWS
August saw a rebound in manufacturing new orders and output across India. The expansions
were modest but represented a substantial turnaround from July’s GST-related contraction.
Underlying data pointed to a broad-based recovery, with factory orders and production up in each
of the three monitored sub-sectors.
India and China have jointly submitted a proposal to the World Trade Organisation calling for the
elimination by developed countries of the most trade-distorting form of farm subsidies, known in
WTO parlance as Aggregate Measurement of Support or Amber Box support as a prerequisite
for consideration of other reforms in domestic support negotiations, said a government release on
Thursday.
Under the Commerce and Industry Ministry, the Department of Industrial Policy and Promotion
is likely to release a new industrial policy by October which will focus on encouraging Indian
branded products with higher value addition. The proposed policy will also review the existing
foreign direct investment policy regime to facilitate greater technology transfer. The policy is
expected to replace the United Progressive Alliance government’s National Manufacturing Policy
released in 2011, which sought to create 100 million jobs by 2022.
12. The Central Statistics Offer is going to release India’s Gross Domestic Product numbers on
Friday for the first quarter of the current financial year. For the previous quarter of the FY17,
India’s GDP numbers had missed the street estimates and declined to 6.1%. After demonetisation,
experts believe that GDP data will be hampered for next few quarters as the consumption demand
of various sectors was adversely affected. According to street expectations, GDP numbers are
expected to expand to 6.6% in Q1FY18 as compared to the previous year.
The Government’s construction major, Central Public Works Department has undergone a major
digital transformation enabling payments worth Rs 20,000 crore per year electronically, said a
government release on Wednesday. This has been done by networking all the 400 field offices of
CPWD across the country through a special integrated portal ensuring digital payments from this
month. With this, CPWD has become the first organisation of a civil ministry to become digital at
the field level, it said.
The fiscal deficit of Rs 5.05 trillion for April-July or 92.4% of the budgeted target for the current
fiscal year that ends in March 2018, showed a data released by the government on Thursday. The
data furnished by the Comptroller General of Accounts, showed that the deficit was 73.7% of the
full-year target during the corresponding period last year. Net tax receipts in the first four months
of the financial year 2017-18 were Rs 2.58 trillion, the data added. The government aims to trim
the fiscal deficit to 3.2% of gross domestic product in 2017-18 compared with 3.5% in the
previous year.
The combined Index of Eight Core Industries stands at 119.8 in July 2017, which was 2.4%
higher compared to the index of July 2016. Its cumulative growth during April to July 2017-18
was 2.5%. The Eight Core Industries comprise 40.27% of the weight of items included in the
Index of Industrial Production. On the strong core production data, one can expect positive
sentiment across core sectors on D-street on Friday's session. According to the data, Coal
production increased by 0.7% in July 2017 over July 2016. Its cumulative index declined by 3.3%
during April to July 2017-18 over the corresponding period of the previous year.
The Q1FY18 GDP slowed down to 5.7% as compared to 7.9% on YoY basis and against 6.1% on
QoQ basis, showed the data released by the Central Statistics Office, Ministry of Statistics and
Programme Implementation. The Q1 GDP has hit its 13-quarter low. Quarterly GVA at basic price
at constant (2011-2012) prices for Q1FY18 is estimated at Rs 29.04 lakh crore, as against Rs
27.51 lakh crore in Q1FY17, showing a growth rate of 5.6 percent over the corresponding quarter
of previous year.
13. Sidelining the apprehensions about the GST rollout, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said that a
smooth transition to the new tax regime has occurred. The PM has asked chief secretaries of all
states to further boost efforts to increase registration under GST and to achieve a quantum jump
in this regard within a month. The Prime Minister was chairing his 21st meeting of Pro-Active
Governance and Timely Implementation, a monthly interaction with top officials of states through
a video conference.
The Reserve Bank of India plans to issue a fresh list of defaulters to be referred to National
Company Law Tribunal by the banks if their NPAs remain unresolved by mid-December,
reported a leading news agency. Some of the prominent names on the list are Videocon Industries,
JP Associates, Jayaswal Neco, Uttam Galva, Ruchi Soya, Unity Infra, Monnet Power, Shakti
Bhoj, Nagarjuna Oil, Orchid Chem, East Coast Energy, Ushdev, Essar Projects, IVRCL, Visa
Steel, Castex Technologies. The list which includes listed companies names around 35 to 40
companies, said the report.
Official data on GDP growth for Q1, April to June 2017 is scheduled to be released on August
31. The economy grew 7.9% in the first quarter of 2016-17. It had grown 7.1% in 2016-17. Many
market experts are observing GDP growth at 6.5% for Q1FY18. GDP estimates and growth
projections are vital inputs for policy makers including the Reserve Bank of India’s to derive its
interest rate related decisions.
More than 36 lakh businesses have submitted their returns so far under the Goods and Services
Tax regime for the month of July, reported a national news agency quoting a top tax official.
Friday was the last day for filing the returns. Tax collected in the maiden filings under the GST
regime, which kicked in on July 1, is still being compiled as the last date for filings under
different rules was extended. The revenue department has estimated a collection of around Rs
65,000 crore from maiden GST.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi said that nearly 30 crore new families have got Jan Dhan
accounts and the scheme has recorded deposits worth Rs 65,000 crore. With Jan Dhan Yojana
completing three years, Prime Minister said on Monday that the NDA-led government has given
‘wings to millions of aspirations’ through the scheme that aims at acute financial inclusion,
besides other social security schemes including Mudra Yojana and Stand-Up India programme.
✍ TOP CORPORATE NEWS -
GTPL Hathway announced that its wholly-owned subsidiary GTPL Broadband Private Ltd. has
14. received a prestigious work order from Gujarat Informatics Limited, a Government of Gujarat
company. The order was received for providing wi-fi services on services/rental module,
including design, built and operations, and management for state-wide public wi-fi hotspots under
the Gujarat State Urban Area Network . The order was received for an estimated amount of Rs
28.88 crore for five years.
Hero MotoCorp Ltd., the world’s largest two-wheeler manufacturer, reported on Friday a
significant performance milestone by clocking its highest-ever sales for any single month. Riding
on popular demand for its exciting range of two-wheelers, Hero MotoCorp sold 6,78,797 units of
two-wheelers in August 2017, thereby registering a growth of 10% over the corresponding month
last year when the company had sold 6,16,424 units.
Mahindra & Mahindra Limited, India’s leading SUV manufacturer has announced its auto sales
performance for August 2017 which stood at 42,116 vehicles as compared to 40,591 vehicles
during August 2016, representing a growth of 4%. The passenger vehicles segment sold 19,325
vehicles in August 2017 as against 18,246 vehicles in August 2016, posting a growth of 6%. The
company’s domestic sales registered a growth of 7%, selling 39,534 vehicles in August 2017 as
compared to 36,944 vehicles in August 2016.
Zydus Cadila informed that it has received the final approval from the USFDA to market
Donepezil Hydrochloride tablets, in the strength of 23 mg. The drug is indicated for the treatment
of dementia of the Alzheimer’s disease. The drug will be manufactured at the group’s
formulations manufacturing facility at Moraiya Ahmedabad.
The total sales by Ashok Leyland registered a growth of 25% on YoY basis. It sold 13,634 units
in August 2017 as compared to 10,897 units during the corresponding period last year. In the
Medium and Heavy Commercial Vehicles segment, it posted a growth of 29%, selling 10,567
units as against 8,201 units in August 2016. It sold 3,067 units of Large Commercial Vehicles in
August 2017 as compared to 2,696 units sold in August 2016, registering a growth of 14%.
The shares of Welspun Enterprises rose by over 3% intraday during Thursday’s trading session
after the company informed that it has received the letter of award for Rs 1,161 crore project. The
order was received from National Highways Authority of India for the six-laning of Aunta-
Simaria section of NH-31 in the state of Bihar on Hybrid Annuity Model.
Auto sales data for the month of August 2017 has been coming out during the early trade on
Friday. Maruti Suzuki India has also reported its August sales data. The company sold a total of
1,63,701 units in August 2017 growing 23.8% over the same period of the previous fiscal year.
15. This includes 1,52,000 units in the domestic market and 11,701 units of exports. The company
had sold a total of 1,32,211 units in August 2016.
Aditya Birla Capital, a financial services arm of AV Birla Group, listed on the bourses in
Friday’s trade. The stock listed on NSE at Rs 237.5 per share and at Rs 248.15 per share on BSE.
There is strong selling pressure seen in the stock, with 45,55,532 shares on the sell side while
zero on the buy side
The shares of RPP Infra Projects soared by nearly 2% during Thursday’s trading session after the
company announced that it has bagged an order valued Rs 38.9 crore.
Tata Elxsi and V-Nova, a leading provider of video compression solutions, announced a
partnership that enables operators to deploy V-Nova PERSEUS technology at an accelerated
pace, the company said in a filing to the bourses on Wednesday.
HCL Infosystems Limited has informed that the board of directors of the company in its meeting
held on August 29, 2017 has considered and approved the recommendations of its Capital Raising
Committee to go for a rights issue of shares to existing shareholders of the company as a mode of
raising equity capital aggregating up to Rs 500 crores.
The shares of Larsen & Toubro soared by over 2% intraday during Monday’s trading session
after the company reported that its construction arm has secured orders worth Rs 1,975 crore
across its various segment.The power transmission and distribution business have bagged orders
valued at Rs 1,331 crore in the domestic and international markets. The orders have been secured
across the Middle East for turnkey construction of various 132/11kV and 33/11kV substations and
132kV cable feeders. These primary electrical power substations and associated HV cable feeders
are crucial elements in providing integrated infrastructure for spurring industrial growth.
✍ TOP BANKING AND FINANCIAL NEWS OF THE WEEK
Public lender Canara Bank has reduced interest rate on savings bank accounts by 50 basis points
to 3.5 per cent on deposits of up to Rs.S 50 lakh. However, the bank will continue to pay 4 per
cent interest on deposits of above Rs 50 lakh. "The bank has decided to revise the rate of interest
on savings bank deposits with effect from today," Canara Bank said in a regulatory filing.
The government will likely impose a temporary halt on the selection of state-run bank chiefs as it
looks to push lenders toward consolidation. It may also review the performance of bank
16. managing directors with those who don’t score too well being asked to improve or quit, said a
finance ministry official, who did not want to be named. Consolidation won’t mean people losing
their jobs.
Non-food bank credit growth of schedule commercials banks slowed to 5.3 per cent in July as
compared with a rise of 8.3 per cent in the same month last year, the RBI data showed. Credit to
agriculture and allied activities moderated to 6.8 per cent in July 2017, lower than the increase of
13.4 per cent in July last year. Personal loans rose by 15 per cent in the month, lower than the
increase of 18.8 per cent in the year-ago period.
The government may be forced to put its state-run bank consolidation push on the back burner
since at least a dozen of them are staring at a big hole in the balance sheet this fiscal year after
RBI told them to get cracking on resolving as many as 50 bad loan accounts or initiate
bankruptcy proceedings against them by December end.
The government has exempted consolidation among public sector banks from the scrutiny of
competition authority. The exemption will cover all cases of reconstitution, transfer of the whole
or any part of nationalised banks and will be available for a period of 10 years. In a gazette
notification, the provisions of Sections 5 and 6 of the Competition Act, 2002 will not apply in
these cases.
It was in the budget speech on February 28, 2005 that consolidation of Indian banking industry
was probably put forth for the first time by someone who mattered in the government. The then
finance minister P Chidambaram, in a different context of acquiring size to match global banks,
signalled the government is keen on state-run banks' merger. More than a decade after, this
month, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Cabinet has given a go ahead to banks to come up with
plans by themselves to consolidate the 21 entities based on the needs of individual banks. As
matters stand, government has said it wouldn't force the hands of banks.
The Reserve Bank of India has directed banks to refer as many as 50 dud accounts to bankruptcy
court if they are unable to find a resolution for them in about three months, in the second such list
that the regulator has sent out in its renewed campaign to clean up the country's overwhelming
bad corporate debt problem. The move will not only put pressure on promoters to come up with
workable recast strategies but also pinch banks even more as they will have to make higher
provisions on loans of companies referred to the insolvency process.
Bankruptcy proceedings could soon be initiated against more companies, in addition to the 12
17. firms that are already undergoing insolvency proceedings. About 30-40 companies could feature
in this list. According to an ET Now report, the RBI is finalising a second list for the NCLT. The
list, ET Now claimed quoting sources, is supposed to be out by next month. The debt level, ET
Now further said, runs from Rs 3,000 crore to Rs 50,000 crore.
Public sector banks have taken loan recovery action under Sarfaesi law against 5,954 wilful
defaulters owing about Rs 70,000 crore to the lenders. At the end of March 31, 2017, 21 banks
together have taken action against 5,954 wilful defaulter under Securitisation and Reconstruction
of Financial Assets and Enforcement of Security Interest Act, as per data collated by the Finance
Ministry.
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