NIFTY FIFTY : - Indian shares hit new record highs in last week trading sessions, on hopes of good southwest monsoon rain, robust monthly sales figures from automakers and positive global cues
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Equity Research Report 12 June 2017 Ways2Capital
1.
2. TECHNICAL TREND ( NIFTY - BANK NIFTY FUTURES )
NIFTY FIFTY : - Indian shares hit new record highs in last week trading sessions, on hopes of good
southwest monsoon rain, robust monthly sales figures from automakers and positive global cues
helping investor sentiment. The Indian Benchmark Index Nifty made a record high of 9687 on
Monday 5th June. The Index opened at 9656 and closed at 9675. After the announcement of RBI
Monetory Policy. RBI kept repo rate unchanged at 6.25% but cut statutory liquidity ratio by 50 basis
points to 20%. The Indian Benchmark Index Nifty closed slightly higher at 9664 after making a high
of 9679. After the unexpected result from UK, risk trade may suffer in the short term; but the positive
side may be the real Brexit will not happen at all. But still then, the resultant uncertainty may not be
good for the overall global as well Domestic Market sentiment. Although overall tone of RBI was less
hawkish than expected, a rate cut in H1FY18 may be still not sacrosanct as MPC will watch various
macro data more carefully before changing their stance from neutral to accommodative again. Apart
from macro data & progress of monsoon and GST implementation, As of Now Time and Price Action
Suggest that the Nifty to Sustain over 9620 level for Further Up move toward 9680-9740, On the Flip
side Sustaining below may drag the Index Toward 9585-9436 in Next week trading session. .
BANK NIFTY : - Bank Nifty also made a record high of 23495 in the last trading session of last
week trading session and closed at 23460.Yes Bank was up by 2.82%, Axis Bank up by 1.10% , were
among the top movers in the Index. The Index made a record high of 9709 on Tuesday 6th June. The
Index opened at 9704 and closed at 9637. Bank Nifty also made a record high of 23536 in the last
trading session and closed at 23416. Reserve Bank of India announced its monetary Policy Central
Banks Kept repo rate unchanged at 6.25% but cut statutory liquidity ratio by 50 basis points to 20%.
This will infuse more liquidity into the banking system. for Bank Nifty, actual FY-17 EPS may be
around 795, if NSE data is correct or updated as of now. This is against FY-16 EPS of around 900,
which translates a degrowth of almost 11.64%. Average CAGR of Bank Nifty may be around 8%, but
for the last two years, average CAGR may be around (-) 8.5% due to huge NPA provisions.Bank
Nifty may also be very expensive despite positive EBITDA, because actual NPA resolution is not
happening as expected. Bank Nifty need to Sustain above 23400-520 level for Strength , The
Significance Levels for Bank Nifty is 23510-23688 is up side and 23353-23237 is down side.
Monday, 12 June 2017
4. PATTERN FORMATION ( NIFTY )
Detail of Chart - On the Above given daily chart of Eqity index Nifty price seems to take a pause inside
the breakdown zone before a swinging move. On Analysis of the Movement of Nifty 50 price in Different
time zone which constructed. Bollinger Band is an Advance indicator of a Break down ahead . The Nifty
is facing the Stiff Resistance at the Current level, If it tries to a little further Up move. The Nifty to Take
Strong Resistance at 9468-9526, And Strong Support is 9398-9319 levels.
5. PATTERN FORMATION ( BANK NIFTY )
Detail of Chart - On the Above given daily chart of Eqity index Bank Nifty price seems to take a pause
inside the breakdown zone before a swinging move.On analysis of the movement of Bank Nifty futures
in the same charts on June 10th, 2017, We find the Bak Nifty futures price seems ready to take a sudden
downward move with or without any excuse. Our aim is not to create panic among the traders; The
Strong Resistance for Bank Nifty is at 23560-23692 and Strong Support for Index is at 23410-23356
Levels.
9. NSE - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS
✍ TOP NEWS OF THE WEEK
Loan waiver to hurt credit discipline, impact fiscal, says experts - The loan waiver of Rs 30,000
crore will affect the state fiscal and ‘impact the credit discipline’ among borrowers, according to
experts. Eleven days after farmers protest, the Maharashtra government has announced a farm loan
waiver for small and marginal farmers on Sunday. According to India Rating report, the impact of
the waiver will be felt over a period of time, although it will push up states' fiscal deficit to 2.71 per
cent as against 1.53 per cent budgeted for the fiscal year 2017-18. The rating company estimates that
the debt burden will rise 17.44 per cent against 16.2 per cent estimated for the fiscal year 2017-18.
Maharashtra is the second BJP government governed state after Uttar Pradesh to have announced a
farm loan waiver. Soon after BJP won an election in UP, the state government had announced a farm
loan waiver of Rs 36,359 crore. A day after UP government had announced a waiver, governor of the
Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Urjit Patel, had denounced it. “I think it undermines an honest credit
culture. It impacts credit discipline. In other words, waivers are in general more of hazard,” he had
said speaking to media. “Waivers are in general more of hazard. It also entails at the end of the day
transfer from taxpayers to borrowers,” he added.
GST Council to meet on June 11 to review rates, amend rules - The all powerful GST Council
will meet on Sunday to review some of the rates on which industry has expressed displeasure,
besides amending the draft rules. This will be the 16th meeting of the Council, chaired by Finance
Minister Arun Jaitley and comprising state counterparts, since it was set up in September 2016.
"Main agenda items include confirmation of the minutes of the 15th GST Council meeting held on
June 3, approval of amendments to draft GST rules and rate adjustment, if any, based on the
representations received from different trade and industry and their associations," a finance ministry
statement said. The June 11 meeting would probably be the last one of the Council before the Goods
and Services Tax (GST) is rolled out from July 1. Various industry associations have sought a
review of the tax rates saying that the GST incidence is working out to be much higher than the
present level of taxation. The auto industry has been demanding a review of the GST rate on mid
and large-sized hybrid cars which are proposed to be taxed at 43 per cent, higher than the current
level of effective tax rate of 30.3 per cent. Also, the telecom sector has been placed in the 18 per cent
tax bracket and they are demanding that the rate should be lowered. COAI has written to Revenue
Secretary to review the matter. IT hardware firms are seeking an uniform GST rate of 18 per cent on
IT products, like monitors and printers, instead of 28 per cent proposed for some items. The GST
Council has fitted almost all goods and services in tax slabs of 5, 12, 18 and 28 per cent. However,
precious metals, gold coins and imitation jewellery have been fitted in the 3 per cent slab, and rough
diamond at 0.25 per cent. The GST, which will subsume a host of levies including excise, service
10. tax and VAT, will be rolled out from July 1.
Economy headed for consolidation, says RBI survey - The economy will gradually consolidate
growth in the current fiscal, predicted 28 forecasters surveyed by the Reserve Bank. As per the
survey result posted on the RBI website, real GDP and real GVA are expected to grow by 7.4 per
cent and 7.2 per cent, respectively, in 2017-18 and consolidate further by 40 basis points and 50 bps,
respectively in the following year. The RBI has been conducting the Survey of Professional
Forecasters since September 2007 and the latest (46th round) was conducted during May 2017.
According to the forecasters, retail inflation is expected to gradually rise to 5 per cent by the fourth
quarter of 2017-18. The consumer price inflation was 2.99 per cent in April. On the external front,
they expect foreign trade to shed its recent sluggishness as there is a "greater optimism" around the
growth of both exports and imports than in previous rounds of surveys, which is expected to sustain
in 2018-19. Meanwhile, the Consumer Confidence Survey conducted by the RBI in six metropolitan
cities revealed that households' current perception of the economic situation improved slightly in
May though net responses remained in the negative zone for the second consecutive round.
Respondents' outlook on the future economic situation was, however, more optimistic," the survey
said.
HSBC sees India growth unchanged at 7.1% this fiscal - India's growth is likely to remain
unchanged at 7.1 per cent this fiscal, as investments are low and government spending may not
remain high given the fiscal consolidation path the country is treading, says a report. Growth
numbers were marked down marginally but still remain higher than ours," HSBC said in a research
note. It further said, "we have a below-consensus view that growth will be flat at 7.1 per cent in
2017-18". According to the global financial services major HSBC, output gap in the country is
likely to remain negative for longer period of time. In its policy review meet yesterday, the central
bank also lowered its growth forecast to 7.3 per cent, from 7.4 per cent earlier. The report said that
investment still remained low in the country, while urban wages are growing but at multi-year lows.
Moreover, government spending may not remain as high given the fiscal consolidation path, and the
rise in exports over the last few months are showing some signs of moderation. HSBC said though
"rural growth could come in high if rains are strong, but that would just about offset the weakness
from other sectors. This means that the output gap is likely to remain negative for longer".
Regarding RBI's monetary policy stance, the report said a prolonged pause is likely with risks of a
rate cut in August. Given that we believe inflation expectations have fallen into a virtuous cycle,
anchoring inflation at around 4 per cent, we do not find a pressing need for the RBI to either cut or
hike policy rates by a large quantum," it said.
GST's impact will be disruptive, but positive: World Gold Council - With the Goods and
11. Service Tax Council deciding to put gold under three per cent tax bracket, World Gold Council sees
the impact to be "disruptive" with change in consumer behaviour in the coming days. But the net
impact is expected to be positive, it said. We see consumer behaviour changing in response to GST.
Our econometric analysis spanning 26 years of data illustrates that higher taxes act as a headwind to
gold demand. But the tax should also change the industry to the benefit of the consumer," WGC said
here in a report on Thursday. The report -- GST's impact on India's gold market -- said while gold
consumers will face a slightly higher tax rate, the industry will go through a period of adjustment.
We believe GST may be disruptive in the short term as the industry adjusts to the new tax regime.
Manufacturers' and retailers' working capital could be tied up because of inter-state gold stock
transfers," it said.
Met Office updates monsoon forecast to 98% of normal - The weather office expects higher
monsoon rainfall this year than its forecast in April because of favourable developments in global
conditions, particularly the lower prospects of rain-busting El Nino conditions in the Pacific Ocean.
The updated forecast of 98% of normal rainfall will cheer farmers and policy makers and help to
control food inflation, which is a key input in the Reserve Bank of India’s stance towards interest
rates. The India Meteorological Department has also forecast good monsoon activity in the crucial
months of July and August, when rainfall has the biggest influence on the growth of crops and
output. “As per IMD model, there is less probability of El Nino during the monsoon season. We can
expect a minimum impact of El Nino on the south-west monsoon,” said a senior IMD official.
IMD’s optimistic forecast was corroborated by the widely respected Australian weather office, which
said the El Nino phenomenon, associated with abnormal warming of parts of the Pacific Ocean, had
stopped developing, although it has still not been ruled out. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology,
in its latest assessment of El Nino on Tuesday, said El Nino indicators, which had developed in the
past, were showing little or no progress in the past few weeks. Sea surface temperatures across the
tropical Pacific remain warmer than average, though cooling has occurred in some areas over recent
weeks in response to stronger than average trade winds,” it said.
FDI in services up 26 per cent to $8.68 billion in FY17 - FDI inflows into the services sector rose
by about 26 per cent to $8.68 billion in 2016- 17 with the government taking steps to improve the
ease of doing business and attracting foreign investments. The sector, which includes banking,
insurance, outsourcing, R&D, courier and technology testing, had received foreign direct investment
(FDI) worth $6.89 billion in 2015-16, according to data of the Department of Industrial Policy and
Promotion . The government has taken several measures such as fixing timeliness for approvals and
streamlining procedures to improve ease of doing business in the country and attract foreign
investments. With FDI growth in key sectors like services and telecom, the overall foreign
investment inflows in the country too increased by 9 per cent to $43.5 billion last fiscal. Increasing
foreign inflows in the services sector assumes significance as it contributes over 60 per cent to
12. India's GDP.
View: Forget GDP, worry about the financial state of our states - For a government so focused
on triumphal messaging and with the '3 saal bemisal' celebrations reaching a crescendo, new
economic numbers released this week make for sobering reading. Finance minister Arun Jaitley has
pointed to the impact of global factors, vociferously asserting that 7-8% growth is the new normal
and "fairly reasonable". The government's chief statistician TCA Anant thinks that slowdown
concerns shouldn't be overplayed just yet, that the economy is still growing rapidly even if "not as
fast as we would have liked". Yet, the trajectory of the numbers is clear: India's GDP growth slowed
down sharply in January-March this year to 6.1%, down from 7% in the previous quarter, and to a
three-year low of 7.1% overall in 2016-17. While economists continue to debate the slowdown and
whether the demonetisation gamble was responsible (no, says the government), what should concern
us all even more is the declining financial state of our states. While all attention has been focused on
Modi sarkar, many of our states have been borrowing money like there is no tomorrow. Reserve
Bank of India (RBI) recently reported that the debt-to-state GDP ratio of as many as 17 Indian states
increased in the past year. For all states taken together, this ratio hit an alarming 3.6% in 2015-16
(breaching the mandated 3% ceiling under fiscal prudence rules) for the first time in 10 years.
India's national accounts on economic growth wrong: Expert - India is not growing at a seven
per cent rate as being reported by the government, an eminent Indian-origin economist has claimed,
citing flat growth in several key sectors. "They (India's national accounts) show India's growing at
seven per cent a year. But I along with many other economists, I'm afraid don't believe the national
accounts. They were redone in 2011," Vijay R Joshi, Emeritus Fellow of Merton College, Oxford
and Reader Emeritus in Economics, University of Oxford, told a Washington audience. Joshi, the
author of a book titled 'India's Long Road--The Search for Prosperity' alleged that India's growth rate
is back at 5.5 per cent, but the national accounts show a much rosier picture. During a discussion
organised by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, a top American think-tank, the
London-based economist gave several reasons to prove his point. "I will say one thing, (India's
national accounts) is the only place where you can see seven per cent growth. You can't see it
anywhere else. If you look at exports and imports, they have been flat. Shrinking or flat or growing
very slowly. If you look at employment in the organised sector it's at a standstill," he argued.
✍ TOP ECONOMY NEWS
India's forex reserves surged by $2.404 billion to reach life-time high of $381.167 billion in the
week to June 2 on account of rise in foreign currency assets, the Reserve Bank said today. In the
previous week, the reserves had declined by $547 million to $378.763 billion. Foreign currency
13. assets (FCAs), a major component of overall reserves, increased by $2.748 billion to $357.290
billion in the reporting week, RBI said.
The farm loan waiver worth Rs 30000 crore announced by the Maharashtra government will be at
the cost of capital expenditure and also push up the fiscal deficit, notes ratings firm India Ratings.
The loan waiver for small and marginal farmers will push up states' fiscal deficit to 2.71%
(budgeted: 1.53%) in FY’18 of gross state domestic product, India Ratings said in a report. In order
to manage the elevated debt levels, the state could reduce expenditure on capital formation. It said
that the loan waiver is likely to reduce the fiscal space for the government to undertake higher
capital expenditure over the medium-term, thus affecting its medium-term growth prospects.
Vikas Patharkar borrowed $700,000 in 2014 to set up a factory to make electric transformers on the
outskirts of Mumbai, buoyed by the promise of massive government spending and hopes of a strong
economic rebound. Three years later, production has yet to begin. But servicing the debt is cutting
into overall profits at his Lustre Engineering, which also offers electrical services, and the 59-year-
old may have to sell off assets to repay the bank.
The Reserve Bank of India has identified a few large stressed accounts which will be either
restructured or referred to Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code – a move that could set the ball rolling
for resolution of problem loans to be led by the central bank. This development comes as a follow up
to the ordinance issued by the government in May that empowering the central bank to enforce
resolution of problem loans.
Inflation in India is expected to have cooled to a new record low in May, a Reuters poll found, which
could add pressure on the Reserve Bank of India to cut interest rates later in the year. The consumer
price index likely rose 2.60 per cent in May from a year earlier, dipping from 2.99 per cent in April,
due to a fall in the cost of pulses, cereals and perishable goods, according to the poll of 25
economists. That would be the lowest level since the series began in 2012 and remain below the
RBI's medium-term target of 4.0 per cent for the seventh successive month. Forecasts ranged from
2.26 per cent to 3.49 per cent. The data will be released on June 12 at 1200 GMT.
Despite stagnant foreign direct investment inflow of $ 44 billion in 2016, India will most likely
remain most favoured destination due to its attractiveness among MNCs for cross-border mergers
and acquisitions, a UN trade report has said. On the flip side, it said there are tax related concerns
that may pose as deterrent to some foreign investors. In South Asia, FDI inflows increased by 6 per
cent to $54 billion in 2016.
RBI expects retail inflation to fall to 2-3.5 per cent in the first half of current fiscal and move up to
14. 4.5 per cent in the second half saying that rush for farm loan waivers may have inflationary
spillovers. The abrupt and significant retreat of inflation in April from the firming trajectory that
was developing in February and March has raised several issues that have to be factored into the
inflation projections, it said.
Farm loan waivers will amount to 2 per cent of GDP by 2019 polls as other states may follow BJP's
Maharashtra and UP governments, says a Bank of America Merrill Lynch report. We expect almost
all States to write off about $40 billion of farm loans in the run up to the 2019 general elections
following the ruling BJP's UP and Maharashtra governments' waivers," BofAML said in a research
note.
Services sector activity rose to its highest in four months in May, driven by an upturn in incoming
new business, a private survey showed on Monday. The Nikkei India Services Business Activity
Index climbed to 52.2 in the past month from 50.2 in April, marking a strong rebound in a sector that
makes up nearly 60% of the economy. India's economy grew 6.1% in the January-March quarter, its
lowest in more than two years. The new survey suggests a rebound in the first quarter of the current
fiscal year.
The GST Council will examine the concerns of trade and industry regarding the rates and the rollout
of Goods and Services Tax will be implemented from July 1, Union Minister Arjun Ram Meghwal
said today. "If any trade or business organization feels there's any anomaly in the calculation of rate
of tax or fitment formula under GST, they can send their representations. The government is open (to
look at it) if the amendments is in the interest of country, trade and traders. But it is the GST council
which is to make a final decision on it," Meghwal, Minister of State for Finance.
Finance minister Arun Jaitley will review the performance of state-run banks and financial
institutions on June 12, the finance ministry said in a statement. This will be the first such review
meeting in this financial year and the government will take up issues and solutions relating to non-
performing assets or NPAs of public sector banks, status of MSE credit, Stand-up India and Mudra
Yojana, among others. Bad loans at state-run banks grew more than Rs 1 lakh crore since April 2016
to Rs 6 lakh crore as of December 31, 2016.
✍ TOP CORPORATE NEWS -
Housing Development Corporation Finance Corporation on Tuesday is going to raise Rs 1,500
crore through private placement basis. The mortgage lender said that subscription to the bond is
exclusively offered to those who are specifically addressed through a communication made by the
15. lender.
Maruti Suzuki India Limited, a blue-chip auto company, continued its upward rally in the Friday’s
trading session. The stock closed at Rs 7,451 per share, higher by 3% in the Friday’s trade. The stock
touched its all-time high of Rs 7,469 per share. The stock has gained around 80% in the past one
year.
Tata Motors Group global wholesales in May 2017, including Jaguar Land Rover, were at 86,385
units, lower by 1%, over May 2016. Global wholesales of all Tata Motors’ commercial vehicles and
Tata Daewoo range in May 2017 were at 28,310 units, lower by 13%, over May 2016.
Tata Communications has partnered with Alibaba Cloud, which is a cloud computing arm of
Alibaba Group, the company informed the BSE on Saturday. This tie-up will enable customers from
over 150 countries.
Wockhardt Limited informed the bourses that the members of the company have approved the
plans to raise Rs. 1,000 crore through Qualified Institutional Placement.
Videocon Industries, an India-based diversified company, hit its lower circuit of 5% or Rs 28.55 per
share for the 15th consecutive straight session during the trading session on Friday. The stock has
declined mainly due to the selling pressure after two lenders declared the company's account as non-
performing assets.
IndusInd Bank has inked a finance agreement with the Overseas Private Investment Corporatio for
a USD 225 million loan to support the expansion of the bank’s micro, small and medium enterprise
Lending programs across India. At least 25% of the proposed facility will support women
entrepreneurs and reach previously unbanked populations. The eight-year loan is part of the agency’s
commitment to supporting $1 billion in loan to underserved small and medium enterprise in India.
Ujaas Energy has received a letter of award from Numaligarh Refinery Limited (NRL) for supply,
installation, testing and commissioning of a 1Mwp solar power plant at NRL, the company informed
the bourses on Thursday.
Tech Mahindra Limited stock tanked over 3% after British voters slammed a major blow to the
Prime Minster Theresa May, wiping out her parliamentary majority. The election results came as a
major worry for the IT giant, as the Mumbai-based company gets around 29% of its revenues from
the European region. Tech Mahindra's client concentration is double that of the peer group and that
is one of the reasons why the company would be under more pricing pressure than the peers.
16. Biocon, Indian biopharmaceutical major, announced that the shareholders have approved the issue
of bonus share on Thursday. The company in its BSE filling said that the board of directors have
fixed Saturday, June 17, 2017 as the record date to determine the eligible shareholders entitled to the
bonus equity share.
Piramal Enterprises on Wednesday said that through its subsidiary it has provided Rs 1,100 crore
funds Embassy group, a realy estate firm.The fund are provided mainly for the development of
housing and commercial projects Hyderabad, Chennai and Bengaluru over a span of the last six
months.
Federal Bank on Wednesday informed the bourses that the board of directors at its meeting held on
June 7, 2017, approved raising of funds by way of issue of debt securities up to Rs. 4000 crore in
one or more tranches. The bank will seek shareholders’ approval at the forthcoming annual general
meeting.
Mindtree Limited, an Indian multinational information technology and outsourcing company on
Wednesday received the National Company Law Tribunal’s approval for its composite scheme of
amalgamation.The scheme includes the amalgamation of the US-based companies Discoventure
Solutions LLC. and Relational Solutions Inc. with Mindtree Limited.
Yes Bank Limited , India’s fourth largest private sector bank on Wednesday said that the
shareholders have approved the borrowing limit to Rs 70,000 crore from Rs 50,000 crore. The bank
in its filing also added that it has approved borrowing/raising funds in Indian/foreign currency by the
issue of debt securities up to Rs 20,000 crore to eligible investors on private placement basis.sing
funds in Indian/foreign currency by the issue of debt securities up to Rs 20,000 crore to eligible
investors on private placement basis.
✍ TOP BANKING AND FINANCIAL NEWS OF THE WEEK
Finance Minister Arun Jaitley will meet heads of PSU banks tomorrow to discuss the issue of non-
performing assets and the steps being taken by them to expedite the recovery of bad loans which
have crossed Rs 6 lakh crore. Besides, the minister will review the financial performance of all the
public sector banks at the meeting, the first between Jaitley and them in the current fiscal.
Country's largest lender SBI has expressed apprehensions that demonetisation may continue to result
in slowing down of the economy, and adversely affect its business. The government had
discontinued Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 banknotes from November 9, 2016 and issued new Rs 500 and Rs
2,000 currency notes in exchange for the discontinued ones.
17. Finance Minister Arun Jaitley will meet heads of public sector banks and financial institutions on
June 12 to discuss issues related to rising bad loans, interest rate reduction and credit flow to various
sectors. He will also review the performance of the lenders. The meeting assumes significance as it
will be the first after promulgation of the ordinance amending the Banking Regulation Act, 1949,
last month.
IDBI Bank has created a special department for managing bad loans and monitoring credit after
taking a series of hits which include being put "under watch" by RBI and a downgrade by credit
rating agency Icra. Besides, in an attempt to fulfil capital conservation buffer norms, it may raise
about Rs 5,000 crore by selling non-core assets in the current fiscal.
Public sector banks will need as much as Rs. 95,000 crore in capital over two years, which is way
higher than the Rs. 20,000 crore capital infusion that the government plans till March 2019, a
Moody's-ICRA report said on Thursday. "In our central scenario, we estimate that the 11 Moody's-
rated public sector banks will require external equity capital of about Rs. 70,000-Rs. 95,000 crore, or
about $ 10.6-$ 14.6 billion," analyst, said.
Non-performing assets of Indian banking sector are among the biggest roadblocks to the country’s
economic growth as evident from latest data of GDP, says trade body Assocham, urging the banking
regulator RBI to make NPA norms flexible and pragmatic.
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