The market has opened flat on Monday with negative bias on a very crucial week. The Nifty is up 2.85 points at 7213.60. The Nifty was traded up 35 points , After the global rating agency
Moody’s pegged India’s growth at 7.5% for next two years. Asian share markets edged cautiously higher on Monday as investors awaited a rush of February industry surveys to take the pulse of the global economy, while sterling suffered on concerns the UK might yet vote to leave the European Union.
Falcon Invoice Discounting: Empowering Your Business Growth
Equity research report 29 february 2016 Ways2Capital
1.
2. TECHNICAL TREND ( NIFTY - BANK NIFTY FUTURES )
NIFTY FIFTY : - The market has opened flat on Monday with negative bias on a very crucial week. The
Nifty is up 2.85 points at 7213.60. The Nifty was traded up 35 points , After the global rating agency
Moody’s pegged India’s growth at 7.5% for next two years. Asian share markets edged cautiously higher
on Monday as investors awaited a rush of February industry surveys to take the pulse of the global
economy, while sterling suffered on concerns the UK might yet vote to leave the European Union. US oil
prices fell as much as 5 percent on Tuesday after Saudi Oil Minister Ali Al-Naimi ruled out any production
cuts , The market has opened sharply lower on Wednesday, tracking weak global cues. The Nifty declined
34.85 points or 0.49 percent to 7074.70. Asia stocks traded mostly down, with a combination of low oil
prices, concerns over China and weak overnight data weighing on investor sentiment and miss in the US
consumer confidence index. All eyes would be on the ongoing Budget session of Parliament. The Nifty50
traded on a cautious note on Thursday ahead of Rail Budget and February future & option expiry. The
Support for Nifty is 6950-6820 and Resistance for Nifty is 7080-7200.
BANK NIFTY : - The Bank Nifty give Gap Down opening on Monday at 14331 by 13 points. The Bank
Nifty is currently trading at 13853. Chunky loans from large public sector unit banks have driven the surge
in non-performing assets in banking System , At Rs 4 lakh crore, bad loans exceed market value of PSU
banks , investors carry the burden of Rs 150 as bad loans, which have cumulatively ballooned 1.5 times the
market value of these lenders. The step has taken by RBI and the Govt. to overcome the debt of PSU Banks
through the Strategic Debt Restructuring , The Support for Bank Nifty is 13400-12900 and Resistance for
Bank Nifty is 14000-14600.
TECHNICAL VIEW (NIFTY- BANK NIFTY FUTURES )
NIFTY
DAILY R2 R1 PP S1 S2
7218 7086 7020 6954 6822
WEEKLY R2 R1 PP S1 S2
7914 7356 7077 6798 6240
MONTHLY R2 R1 PP S1 S2
9323 7883 7163 6443 5003
3. BANK NIFTY
DAILY R2 R1 PP S1 S2
14639 14061 13772 13483 12905
WEEKLY R2 R1 PP S1 S2
16783 14887 13939 12991 11095
MONTHLY R2 R1 PP S1 S2
120443 16351 14305 12259 8167
MOVING AVERAGE 21 DAYS 50 DAYS 100 DAYS 200 DAYS
NIFTY 7212 7464 7723 7980
BANK NIFTY 14420 15389 16325 17163
PARABOLIC SAR DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
NIFTY 7180 7600 8310
BANK NIFTY 14190 16490 19070
4. PATTERN FORMATION ( NIFTY AND BANK NIFTY )
Depiction of Chart On the On the Above given weekly chart of Nifty Applied Bollinger Band along with Parabolic SAR. And the
Bollinger Band is in the spread range it has break the lower band of the Bollinger Band and after breaking the level it has given the Gap up
opening which is indicating the Bull movement for the Nifty the crucial Support for Nifty is 6950-6920 and the Resistance for Nifty is
7080-7200 , if the Nifty is able to break the level of 7080 we may witness the level of 7200 for next week.
5. BANK NIFTY MACD
Details of Chart On the Above given weekly chart of Bank Nifty applied Bollinger Band along with Parabolic SAR. and the Bollinger
Band is in the spread range it has touched the lower band but not break. the Bollinger Band and after touching the level it has reverse on
Bull side on the other hand on the creating dot Upside which is the clear signal towards the consolidation Market For The Bank Nifty ,
however the Bank Nifty crucial Support is 13400 and the Resistance is 14060 . if the Bank nifty is crossing the 14000 level we may
witness the 14200-14400 Levels.
7. TOP 15 ACHIEVERS // TOP 15 LOOSERS
NSE FUTURE :
PETRONET FUTURE : PETRONET FUTURE MOVES IN BEARISH TREND TODAY IT
CONTINUOUSLY MOVES IN BEARISH TREND ON DAILY CHART WE CAN EXPECT FURTHER
DOWNSIDE MOVEMENT IN IT BELOW 230 TGT 200 SL 235.
JINDALSTEL FUTURE : JINDALSTEL MOVES IN BEARISH TREND TODAY ON DAILY CHART
OF IT STRONG SUPPORT MADE WE CAN MADE SHORT POSITION IN IT BELOW THE
SUPPORT LEVEL OF 53 TGT 45 SL 57.
BHEL FUTURE: AFTER A LONG BEARISH RALLY BULLISH TREND SHOWS iIN BHEL
TODAY ALSO RESISTANCE LEVEL 97 CAN BE SEEN ON BHEL CHART WE CAN EXPECT
BULLISH TREND IN BHEL ABOVE 97.50 TGT 110 SL 90.
COALINDIA FUTURE : COAL INDIA MOVES IN BULLISH TREND TODAY ON INTRADAY
CHART OF COAL INDIA STRONG RESISTANCE LEVEL CAN BE SEEN WE CAN MADE LONG
POSITION IN COAL INDIA ABOVE 297 TGT 330 SL 285
ASHOKLEY FUTURE : WE CAN MADE LONG POSITION IN ASHOKLEY FUTURE ABOVE THE
LEVEL OF 87 TGT100 SL 82
SR.NO SCRIPT NAME PREV CLOSE CMP % CHANGE
1 BHEL 105.75 95.10
-10.07 %
2 MARUTI SUZUKI
IND
3749 3409
-9.07 %
(a) M
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3 GAIL LTD. 324 304
-6.19 %
4 ADANI PORTS 212.50 200.10
-5.84 %
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5 BAJAJ AUTO LTD. 2357345 2238.10
-5.06 %
6 NTPC 128.00 121.55
-5.04 %
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7 YES BANK LTD. 720.35 686.55
-4.69 %
8 GRASIM
INDUSTRIES
3455.80 3300.60
-4.49 %
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9 POWER GRID
CORPO
139.60 133.65
-4.26 %
10 AXIS BANK LTD. 403.10 386.35
-4.16 %
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11 BANK OF BARODA 138.80 132.75
-4.01 %
12 VEDANTA 74.40 71.80
-3.49 %
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13 ICICI BANK 190.75 184.80
-3.12 %
14 ITC LTD. 299.85 290.95
-2.97 %
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15 ACC 1226.05 1190.90 -2.87 %
SR.NO SCRIPT NAME PREV
CLOSE
CMP % CHANGE
1
ONGC 200.35 216.05 +7.84 %
2 HINDALCO INDUS. 65.80 69.45 +5.55 % 1. H
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HUL 812.55 849.90 +4.60 %
4 BOSCH LTD. 16140 16711 +3.53 % 6. B
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ZEEL 370 381 +2.85 %
6 M&M 1200 1230 +2.47 % M
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INFOSYS 1097 1121 +2.12 %
8 SUN PHARMA 855.80 871.90 +1.88 % S
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HEROMOTOCORP 2524 2555 +1.22 %
10 DR. REDDY LABS 2960 2994 +1.13 % D
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.
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11
CIPLA 519 524 +0.94 %
12 ASIAN PAINTS LTD. 856 862 0.77 % A
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213
WIPRO LTD. 526 530 0.67 %
14 LIC HOUSING FIN 406 408 +0.57 % L
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815
D B CORP LTD. 305 306.85 0.54 %
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8. NSE CASH :
RUSHIL NSE CASH : LONG POSITION CAN BE MADE IN RUSHIL ABOVE 315 FOR TGT AND
SL OF 345 AND 305 RESPECTIVELY.
BALRAMCHIN NSE CASH : TRENDLINE BREAKOUT AND A NEW PRICE CYCLE IS
EXPECTED TO START IN BALRAMCHIN ABOVE THE LEVEL OF 84.LONG POSITION CAN BE
MADE ABOVE THAT LEVEL FOR TGT AND SL OF 92 AND 80.50.
ALKEM NSE CASH : LONG POSITION CAN BE MADE IN ALKEM ABOVE THE LEVEL OF 1292
WHICH IS ALSO A BREAKOUT LEVEL OF A HAMMER PATTERN ON DAILY CHART,1398 AND
1257 WOULD BE TGT AND SL RESPECTIVELY.
COX&KINGS NSE CASH : LONG POSITION CAN BE MADE ABOVE 152 FOR TGT OF 165 AND
SL OF 147.
GATI NSE CASH : LONG PODITION CAN BE MADE IN GATI ABOVE 106 FOR TGT OF 115 AND
SL OF 102.
9. NSE - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS
TOP NEWS OF THE WEEK
FinMin releases Rs. 4 lakh crore to states under tax devolution - The Union
Government accepted the recommendations of the Fourteenth Finance Commission under
which there was a phenomenal increase in the tax devolution to the States due to increase
of share in the divisible pool of taxes from 32% to 42%. As per its commitment, in the
Union Budget for 2015-16, the Ministry of Finance made a provision of Rs. 5.24 lakh
crore under devolution of taxes to States as compared to the allocation of Rs.3.38 lakh
crore in 2014-15. So far, Rs. 411681.66 crore has been released to the States by way of
tax devolution and as per convention, three more installments will be released in March
2015 based on the tax collections till then.
Forex reserves rises by $347.20 mn - India’s foreign exchange reserves surged by
$347.2 mn in the week ended February 12 to $351.83 billion, according to RBI data.
Gold reserves remained unchanged. Foreign currency assets rose by $1.58 billion.
Infra sector expects higher budgetary allocations towards specified infra projects -
Pre-Budget Expectations on Infrastructure Sector, The infrastructure sector expects
higher budgetary allocations towards specified large infrastructure projects such as Bullet
trains, Dedicated Freight Corridors, Bharat Mala, Sagar Mala, Smart Cities, low-cost
airports, inland waterways development, etc. Compliance with Right to Fair
Compensation and Transparency in Land Acquisition, Rehabilitation and Resettlement
Act has increased the land acquisition cost and is now estimated to be in the range of Rs.
1,800-1,950 billion over next three odd years. This coupled with ambitious target
execution rate of 30 km/day would require doubling the budgetary allocation for the road
sector alone.
Budget session likely to get off to a stormy start on Feb 23 - After Prime Minister
Narendra Modi's meeting with leaders of opposition parties on February 16,
Parliamentary Affairs Minister M Venkaiah Naidu will hold another all-party meeting
tomorrow to reach out to political rivals for smooth functioning of Parliament. The same
day, Lok Sabha Speaker Sumitra Mahajan will also hold consultations with leaders of all
parties in the House. A meeting of the Congress Working Committee has been convened
by party chief Sonia Gandhi on the eve of the session. The deliberations at the meeting is
expected to set the tone for the Budget session. At the Monday meeting, Congress will
10. finalize its floor strategy for the session. Chairing a meeting of leaders of all parties from
Rajya Sabha, Chairman Hamid Ansari yesterday reminded them "time has come to assure
the public that parliamentary democracy does work and is sensitive to the needs of the
people." The remarks come in the backdrop of last two sessions being a virtual washout
with the opposition and government locking horns over a number of issues including the
key reform measure of GST.
7.6% GDP outlook is significant : Shaktikanta Das - India's growth projection for the
current fiscal is "very, very significant", Shaktikanta Das has said and promised more
measures to boost economic growth. "India remains a bright spot amid the global
slowdown. We live in a global village. Therefore, whatever happens in any part of the
world affects us because India over the last several years is getting increasingly
globalised," economic affairs secretary Shaktikanta Das said on the finance ministry's on
Monday
Budget 2016: Down to the wire, Finance Minister Arun Jaitley to meet economists -
In an unconventional move, Finance Minister Arun Jaitely will meet economists and
market experts on Saturday, barely 48 hours ahead of his Budget speech on Monday.
Minister of State Jayant Sinha and other key Finance Ministry officials will be part of the
meeting, sources said. While the agenda is under wraps, it is learnt that the Finance
Ministry sent out invitations over email on Tuesday for the 90-minute meeting that is
scheduled to start at 11 am. “The meeting is aimed at sensitising economists about the
backdrop in which the expenditure budget has been prepared and to make them appreciate
the difficult situation,” an official source said.
Rail budget to unveil massive plan with increased outlay of Rs 1.25 lakh crore - The
Railway Budget 2016 is likely to unveil massive capacity creation plan in the sector with
an increased outlay of about Rs. 1.25 lakh crore, as per reports. Safety upgradation,
electrification, doubling and modernisation of yards is considered as the top priority this
budget session. Reports state that Railway Minister Suresh Prabhu will have to depend on
the External Budgetary Resources for the execution of this plan since the projects are
likely to be funded by EBR.
Indian PSU banks need more Govt fund to susutain credit profile: Moody's -
Moody's Investors Service says that the credit profiles of Indian public sector banks will
worsen, if the government does not revise upwards its capital infusion plan for the banks
in the Indian upcoming budget to be presented on 29 February 2016. "While the reported
NPLs of the 11 public sector banks that we rate registered a significant 0.9%-4.1%
11. increase in the most recent quarter ended 31 December 2015, Moody's view of the true
underlying asset quality of these banks has remain unchanged, "says Srikanth Vadlamani,
a Moody's Vice President and Senior Credit Officer.
Prabhu lives up to economic challenges: ASSOCHAM - Railway Minister Mr Suresh
Prabhu has given a no-tariff hike budget without compromising on the capital expenditure
for increasing carrying capacity, both passengers and freight even in a challenging
economic environment marked by a severe slowdown in the commodity sectors, which
are lifeline of the Railways’ earnings, ASSOCHAM President Sunil Kanoria said. While
committing himself to improving the Railways in terms of better passenger amenities and
adopting a service-provider approach to the industry, which is the main revenue customer
for it, Mr Prabhu has lived up to his reputation of being a financial wizard in banking on
non-budget resources for funding the capital plans. He knows it too well, there are limited
options through the Gross Budgetary Support.
Going Digital can save the country Rs.20,000 crores - The recent decision by the
Government of India to bring digital payments at par with cash is a watershed moment in
the creation of a truly digital India. In combination with Aadhaar and Jan Dhan Yojana,
this move constitutes the most wide ranging and ambitious program for the digital
transformation of the country. India is amongst the most cash intensive cash economies in
the world. India's cash to GDP ratio is 12%, which is 3-4 times that of comparable
economies like Brazil and South Africa. The cost of managing this high cash dependence
is over INR 20,000 Crores in the formal banking system and much more in the entire
economy. With this strong signal, we are on our way to wean the country off its
expensive and inefficient addiction to cash. Going digital will not only save the country
Crores of rupees, it will also provide consumers and merchants a more secure and
frictionless way of transacting. We are confident that the government’s continued
support for the digitization of payments will further fuel growth and innovation in the
sector, with significant long term socio-economic benefits to the Indian economy.
Economic Survey 2016: Panagariya bats for a 50 basis point rate cut by RBI to begin with
- The survey, which was presented by Chief Economic Advisor Arvind Panagariya
highlighted that the government remained on path of fiscal consolidation, implying that
RBI should now do what was required out of them i.e. monetary policy easing in order to
lift the growth of the economy; the target of which was set at conservative 7-7.5% in light
of global uncertainties and likely scenario of Fed rate hikes. The survey highlighted of a
more accommodative stance from Reserve Bank of India in cutting rates further and
estimated the FY17 inflation to be at ~4.5-5%.
12. TOP ECONOMY NEWS
The Public Investment Board has approved the Rs. 8 billion proposal from India Post for
setting up a payments bank and it will be placed before the Cabinet within a month for
final approval.
The Prime Minister, Shri Narendra Modi, today launched the National Rurban Mission
from Kurubhat, in Rajnandgaon district of Chhattisgarh.
Government is considering a proposal to permit 49% FDI through automatic approval
route in the insurance sector with a view to attracting more overseas inflows.
The transport ministry is hopeful of receiving the Cabinet approval soon on the proposal
to sell over 100 operational toll road projects to sovereign and pension funds that will
garner at least US$7.7 billion.
The current government came to power in 2014. Since then, there have been hopes that
future budget might lay out plans for big-ticket reforms. But the same has not happened
till now. So even though many people feel that this will be the last budget in which
government can push for some serious reforms, it will be wrong to assume that
government might announce something very dramatic.
The global higher education sector is undergoing significant transition, with growing
demand, increasing competition, and evolving funding models, Moody's Investors
Service says in a new report. The strength of enterprise risk management and strategic
positioning will drive the financial health of individual universities as they adapt to this
changing environment.
Budget is Coming against a backdrop of heightened tensions between the government and
opposition over several key issues, Budget Session is set to witness some stormy start
from 23rd February 2016. Parliamentary Affairs Minister M Venkaiah Naidu, while
speaking ahead of the session, remained confident that the important bills like GST and
Real Estate will achieve a "broader concensus" and also said that the government is ready
to discuss on all the fronts including the JNU row.
In a bid to evacuate mine sites to comply with the directive of the Supreme Court, the
Government of Goa has put nearly eight million tonnes of low-grade iron ore for
immediate auction at the price rejected by most buyers in previous auctions.
Four industrial cities, including Ahmedabad Dholera special investment region in
Gujarat, are being implemented under the Delhi-Mumbai Industrial
Corridor project, Parliament was informed.
A total of Rs 12.3 billion has been transferred to the coal bearing states including
Jharkhand and Odisha on account of upfront payment for coal blocks that
were auctioned and allotted.
Government expressed hope that Real Estate Regulatory Bill could be discussed and
approved in the ongoing budget session of Parliament.
Defence Minister said the government is "actively considering" a separate set up for
defence acquisition.
13. TOP CORPORATE NEWS -
Reliance Industries said that Reliance Jio will be ready to commercially launch its much
talked about 4G telecom services in second half of 2016, offering 80% of Indians high-
speed mobile internet as well as voice services.
Buoyed by a big ticket deal at its office complex at BKC in Mumbai, realty firm Godrej
Properties is targeting a sales revenue of about Rs 15 billion this year through
monetisation of its commercial assets in Mumbai, Kolkata and Chandigarh.
Lupin Ltd. and Gavis Pharmaceuticals LLC, whose $ 850 million acquisition the Indian
firm announced last year, have agreed to divest two generic drugs as part of the US
Federal Trace Commission requirement to complete the transaction.
The Centre's green panel has given a clearance to the ONGC Ltd. for its Rs 17.5 billion
project involving drilling of 406 development wells in oil fields in Gujarat's Cambay
Basin.
Aditya Birla Nuvo announced that the Company jointly with Idea Cellular has
incorporated a new subsidiary for the purpose of setting up a payments bank in the name
and style of 'ADITYA BIRLA IDEA PAYMENTS BANK wherein the Company will be
holding upto 51% shares and balance 49% shares shall be held by Idea Cellular, a
Joint Venture of the Company.
Havells India Ltd. plans to set up a new manufacturing unit on the outskirts of
Bengaluru at an investment of INR 1,059 crore, Chairman Anil Gupta has Said.
PVR Ltd. on Friday announced a tie-up with New Delhi-based Ozone Networks Ltd, a
Wi-Fi service provider,to offer free Wi-Fi at PVR properties.
Aurobindo Pharma Ltd will expand its operations in newer markets in the
European Union.
The Government of India is set to sell its 5% stake in NTPC LTD. through the Offer for
Sale route, government officials said.
Maruti Suzuki India maintained its leadership position in the domestic passenger
vehicle market with six of its models featuring in the top 10 brands in January.
Reliance Communications has received approval from fair trade regulator Competition
Commission of India to acquire Russian conglomerate Sistema's Indian telecom unit,
Sistema Shyam Teleservices Ltd.
Rajesh Exports Ltd. Said it has won Rs. 8.4 billion export order from the UAE.
BHEL is poised to seal a contract to build a US$ 1.6 billion power plant in Bangladesh,
beating out a Chinese competitor in the latest commercial tussle between the region's two
dominant powers.
Engineering and construction major Punj Lloyd Ltd has bagged Rs 308 crore order for
construction of luxury villas in Dubai, the UAE.
Iron ore mine allotted to Tata Steel by Chhattisgarh Government in Dantewada
district stands cancelled, as the company failed to complete the work within the
stipulated Period.
14. Piramal Enterprises Ltd. said it is looking to raise up to Rs 10 billion through issuance
of non-convertible debentures on private placement basis.
Eicher Motors’ Royal Enfield announced launch of its first retail operations in Thailand.
Lupin Ltd. is setting up a new plant in Japan and investing Rs 1billion in a
manufacturing facility in India which will cater to the Japanese market.
TOP BANKING AND FINANCIAL NEWS OF THE WEEK
With its larger peers busy in cleaning up their balance sheets, Federal Bank is looking at
it as an opportunity to grow business and expects 15-20% credit growth in the next
financial year, Federal Bank MD and CEO told.
At Rs 4 lakh crore, bad loans exceed market value of PSU banks For every Rs 100
parked in shares of public sector banks, investors carry the burden of Rs 150 as bad loans,
which have cumulatively ballooned to Rs 4 lakh crore or 1.5 times the market value of
these lenders.
The Public Investment Board has approved the Rs 800-crore proposal from India Post for
setting up a payments bank and it will be placed before the Cabinet within
a month for final approval. PIB,under the Finance Ministry, whets the investment
proposals by state-run entities.
IDBI Bank Ltd. received Sebi's approval to raise Rs 37.7 billion through issuance of
shares to qualified institutional players.
Chunky loans from large public sector unit banks have driven the surge in non-
performing assets in banking. Ten PSU banks with NPAs over 8 per cent each account for
over half the total bad loans in the banking industry .
Kotak Mahindra Bank’s acquisition of 19.9% stake in Airtel M Commerce to drive
expansion After having gained national footprint post its acquisition of ING Vysya Bank
towards the end of 2014, Kotak Mahindra Bank has now set its eyes on grabbing a large
pie of the payments bank business.
India's leading private lender Yes Bank Ltd. has received the inaugural Green Bond
Pioneer Award in UK in ceremony here, it was announced Tuesday.
State Bank of India's Rs. 11,700 crore worth loans have been locked up as non-
performing assets as nearly 1,160 defaulters have willfully decided not to repay,
according to data.
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