The Market opened in positive Note on Monday with equity
benchmark Nifty 50 up by 29 points or 0.33 percent above at 8712. Indian markets remained upbeat post the passage of the Goods and Services Tax bill even as the
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Equity Research Report 16 August 2016 Ways2Capital
1.
2. TECHNICAL TREND ( NIFTY - BANK NIFTY FUTURES )
NIFTY FIFTY : - The Market opened in positive Note on Monday with equity
benchmark Nifty 50 up by 29 points or 0.33 percent above at 8712. Indian markets
remained upbeat post the passage of the Goods and Services Tax bill even as the
benchmark Nifty bounced back from its crucial support area of 8530. Early on Monday
morning the Index was poised to open at 8760, a little over half above its previous close of
8706. In line with the market expectations, The Reserve Bank of India kept its Policy rate
unchanged. However it declared that it has enough provisions and place to accommodate
rate cut in next monetary policy meet. The Nifty traded in the range of 8500-8650. The
Nifty resilient at 8700 levels. But despite strong buying by the FII in both cash and
derivative segment it is unable to cross 8750 levels. The Crucial Levels for Next Week is
8720-8800 up side and 8600-8550 is down side.
BANK NIFTY : - The Bank Nifty Opened in a Positive Note On Monday up by 61 points
or 0.32 percent at 18986. Governor Rajan was concerned that banks were not in a position
to pass on the complete benefits of lower interest rates to the consumers as their balance
sheets have been heavily dented by high NPA margins. However at the same time he was
confident that banks may soon clear up their balance sheet and then pass on the benefits to
the end user. Finding banks working under the fear of CBI and CVC as "bizzare", a
Parliamentary panel has asked lenders to take decision on financing of stressed assets as
per their "own wisdom" and on the basis of the project's viability. Finding that total NPAs
of Rs 2.6 lakh crore may go up to Rs 4 lakh crore on account of defaulting infrastructure
projects, banks can be empowered to make recovery of bad debts. The Crucial Levels for
Bank Nifty is 19150-19300 up side and 18700-18850 is down side.
Tuesday, 16 August 2016
4. PATTERN FORMATION ( NIFTY )
Detail of Chart - On the Above given daily Chart of Nifty has Applied the Bollinger
Band Along with Parabolic SAR, both the indicators give the early indication of Bullish
or Bearish trend of the market. The uses of Bollinger Band varies from traders to traders
Some buy when it break the middle Band on upper Side and some buy after the break out
of Upper band from down respectively. On the Above given Chart of Nifty earlier it has
touched the Upper Band but was not able to break the level of strong resistance of 8700.
Now it seems that trend has reverse into the Consolidation in the Daily Chart has Formed
the Bullish candle which is also the signal of market reversal. If the Nifty is able to Break
the 8680 level we could see some positive trend for upcoming week, break below 8700
could touch the level of 8880 in upcoming week. The Crucial levels for Nifty is 8650-
8600 down side and 8700-8750 is Upside.
5. PATTERN FORMATION ( BANK NIFTY )
Detail of Chart - On the Above given Chart of Bank Nifty has Applied the Bollinger
Band along with the Parabolic , both the indicators give the early indication of Bullish or
Bearish trend of the market. Thus uses of Bollinger Band varies from traders to traders
Some buy when it break the middle Band on upper Side and some buy after the break out
of Upper band from down. On the above given Chart we could see that the price is near
the middle Band if it is able to sustain the middle Band level it could lead the Bank Nifty
in bull side in upcoming week. Break below middle Band which is around 19150 could
lead the Bank Nifty toward the level of 19400 in Near-Term the crucial level for Bank
Nifty is 18850-18570 down side and 19200-19450 is Upside.
8. NSE - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS
✍ TOP NEWS OF THE WEEK
Economic recovery to accelerate; inflation seen below 5 per cent: Morgan Stanley -
The country's economic recovery is expected to accelerate in the long-term on the back of
rise in purchasing power, consumption growth and monetary policy easing, while
inflation is seen below 5 per cent over the next two years, says a Morgan Stanley report.
"We believe this will be a longer duration expansion cycle with GDP growth expected to
accelerate and inflation expected to remain at or below 5 per cent over the next two
years," Morgan Stanley said in a research note. According to the global financial services
major, the recovery in the Indian economy will be led by domestic demand, with factors
like consumption, public capex and foreign investment playing the key part.
Five factors that will drive consumption growth sustainably higher going forward include,
sustained moderation in inflation and improvement in purchasing power; trailing
monetary policy easing and expectation of more easing; pay commission-related wage
hikes for governmentt employees; pick-up in job growth; potential improvement in the
rural sector if the weather becomes supportive. According to the global financial services
major, the macro environment has seen steady improvement in the last two years,
however, the pace of growth recovery has been slower than anticipated.
RBI soaking foreign inflows to curb impact on rupee: Raghuram Rajan - India's
central bank is trying to prevent the rupee from becoming too volatile by regularly buying
dollars when there are inflows from foreign investors, Reserve Bank of India Governor
Raghuram Rajan said on Wednesday. Rajan, in a television interview, also said the central
bank would likely pay a record-high dividend to the government, which would be one-
sixth higher than the 699 billion rupees $10.48 billion pencilled into the annual budget
unveiled in February. "We are absorbing a fair amount of the inflows," Rajan said, adding
that was a reason why foreign exchange reserves have soared recently to a record high.
Top 100 borrowers owe PSBs Rs 13.71 lakh crore - Government today said the top 100
borrowers of public sector banks owe nearly Rs 14 lakh crore to them. "The amount
outstanding for top 100 borrowers of public sector banks as on March 31, 2016 was Rs
13,71,885 crore," Minister of State for Finance Santosh Kumar Gangwar said in a written
reply to Rajya Sabha. The gross non-performing assets of the public sector banks
increased Rs 2.16 lakh crore in 2013-14 to Rs 4.76 lakh crore in 2015-16, he said.
Reserve Bank as part of the ongoing supervisory assessment process carried out an Asset
9. Quality Review excercise to examine the assessment of asset quality at bank's system
level and deal with the cases of divergences in identification of NPAs or addition
provisioning across banks at the central office level, he said. Besides, it was envisaged to
ensure early finalisation and communication of divergence in provisioning giving banks
more time to plan the additional provision over the remaining quarters, he said. The
wilful defaulters as a percentage of GNPAs as on March 2016 was 16.09 per cent. In
another reply Gangwar said NPAs of the scheduled commercial banks have risen from
5.43 per cent in March 2015 to 9.32 per cent in March 2016.
Japan to invest USD 25 billion in India: Suresh Prabhu - Noting that Indo-Japan ties
have reached a new level, Railway Minister Suresh Prabhu has said that Japan has
committed to invest USD 25 billion in India and the country will benefit immensely from
the investment. "The relation between India and Japan has never been better. Our bilateral
relation has been strengthened and members of parliament have contributed towards it,"
Prabhu said here while releasing coffee-table book '12 Years of Engaged Leadership:
Down the Memory Lane.' The book contains photographs and gist/focus of meetings held
during parliamentary delegation visits to Japan. CII and Sasakawa Peace Foundation
under Indo-Japan Strategic Dialogue Programme, launched in 2004, take a delegation of
MPs every year to Japan. Since its launch, 12 delegations of MPs have visited Japan,
making significant contribution in terms of enriching bilateral relationship and
strengthening economic, political and cultural ties between the two countries.
Industrial production expands 2.1 per cent in June - India's industrial growth edged up
to 2.1 per cent in June, an eight-month high, riding a pickup in electricity generation and
showing some signs of acceleration ahead. Data released by the statistics office showed
an 8.3 per cent increase in electricity production in June and a 4.7 per cent gain in mining
output. Manufacturing, the sector with the highest weight in the Index of Industrial
Production , grew a marginal 0.9 per cent in the month. May IIP reading was revisedto a
1.13 per cent increase, compared with the 1.2 per cent rise reported earlier. "While the
pace of growth still remains low, there was an improvement across the board," ratings
firm Crisil said in a note, while forecasting better days ahead. "Above-normal monsoon,
which could improve rural demand, along with the lagged impact of interest rate
reductions, salary revisions and easier monetary conditions are expected to support
demand in future and boostd boost industrial activity," it said, setting an industrial GDP
growth target of 7.6 per cent for fiscal 2017, compared with last year's 7.4 per cent
expansion.
Meeting fiscal deficit target of 3.5% will be a challenge: Government - The
10. government said in meeting the fiscal deficit target of 3.5% of GDP for the current fiscal
will be a challenge because of the additional burden due to the pay commission award
even as it reiterated its commitment to cutting fiscal deficit to 3% of GDP by FY18. The
Indian economy is showing "bright" near-term prospects, the government said in the
medium term Expenditure Framework Statement for 2016-2017 presented in Parliament
on Friday by finance minister Arun Jaitley. The statement pointed to improved
macroeconomic stability because of fiscal prudence and lower inflation helped by
moderation in crude prices. It said major subsidies are expected to decline gradually from
1.5% of GDP in FY17 to 1.4% in FY18 and further to 1.3% in FY19. The fiscal deficit
target for FY18 and FY19 remain unchanged at 3% of GDP.
Retail inflation crosses 6% mark, at two year high of 6.07 per cent in July - Retail
inflation accelerated at a faster-than-expected pace to touch a two-year high in July,
driven by costlier food. It also crossed the target set by the government earlier this month
for consumer inflation. The Consumer Price Index, the gauge of inflation at the retail
level, rose to 6.07% in July, much above the Reserve Bank of India's target of 5% by
March 2017, presenting a big challenge for the new governor who will succeed
Raghuram Rajan at the central bank next month. The CPI was 5.77% in June, while the
median analyst expectation for the current month was 5.9%. The rise rules out monetary
easing any time soon, though most experts expect inflation to ease going ahead and an at
least quarter percentage point reduction in interest rates in the rest of the financial year
through March 2017.
✍ TOP ECONOMY NEWS
The passing of the Constitution One Hundred and Twenty Second Amendment Bill, 2014
relating to Goods & Services Tax by huge consensus in the Rajya Sabha was the hallmark
of the third week of Monsoon Session of Parliament. The amendments made by Rajya
Sabha in the Constitution One Hundred and Twenty Second Amendment Bill, 2016 as
passed by Lok Sabha and as reported by the Select Committee of Rajya Sabha, have been
now laid on the Table of the Lok Sabha and will be taken up by the House next week.
From the perspective of India’s travel services sector, currently saddled with multiple
taxes, levied by both the center and the states, optimization of taxes and ease of doing
business has been the key ask of our industry and hence the GST bill passage even more
welcome!
11. Under the GST regime, it is expected that supplies of hotels and restaurants, a major cost
component of tour services, will be subjected to a single tax, resulting in fungibility,
reduction in the cascading effect of taxes and hence increased cost efficiencies to benefit
travellers. However, for this benefit to play out effectively, it is necessary that all the
B2B supplies are made fully creditable and the credit flow is seamless across the states.
This aspect will probably require some deliberations.
Under the unaltered inflation targeting framework, ICRA expects lower CPI inflation in
H2 FY2017 to create space for additional monetary easing of 25 bps in 2016, regardless
of the imminent appointment of the MPC and a new RBI Governor.
RBI's inflation target of 5% seems to be on track, unless things turn sour. The dramatic
run-up in recent CPI inflation is mainly driven by food. But if rains continue to be strong
in August, taking reservoir levels to above normal, the 110 bp fresh food price rise and
the 40bp excess pulse inflation could reverse, taking inflation from 6.5% now, to RBI's
target of 5% by early 2017. Meanwhile, although core prices fell noticeably in June, the
trend may not last because PMI Manufacturing corporate margins have begun to rise back
up in July as producers have started to raise output prices. In short, food prices will have
to do all the hard work. While waiting for rains to unfold, the RBI is expected to be on
hold in the upcoming 9 August policy meeting; while still holding on to the
accommodative commentary. We expect issues such as liquidity returning to normal but
lack of commensurate monetary transmission and structural reforms that aid further
disinflation to be discussed during governor Rajan's last monetary policy as RBI
governor. We expect a final 25bp rate cut in 4Q if rains are sufficient. CPI inflation
increased to 6.07% in July 2016 new base 2012=100, compared with 5.77% in June 2016.
The Wholesale Price Index based inflation for June 2016 surged 1.62% from a level of
0.79 % in the previous month.
The Reserve Bank of India will transfer Rs. 658.76 billion surplus as dividend to the
government for 2015-16, Rs. 200 million less than the previous year's Rs. 658.96 billion.
Drilling holes into government claims of huge subsidy savings from direct benefit
transfer, the CAG said only Rs. 17.64 billion in subsidy was saved on LPG on account of
the scheme and the bulk of Rs. 215.52 billion was due to sharp fall in global prices.
The Department of Telecom has ‘suspended’ spectrum sharing, trading and liberalisation
activities till the provisional results of the upcoming spectrum auction are declared.
12. Foreign investment will now be able to flow into financial services such as commodity
broking and other such areas not covered in the 18 areas specified for non-banking
financial companies.
Government approved Rs15.54bn R&D project to develop advanced ultra super critical
technology for thermal power plants, a move that would ensure energy security.
Petrol price was cut by Rs. 1.42/l and diesel by Rs. 2.01/l, the third reduction in rates this
month on global cues
Foreign direct investment inflows grew 7% to USD10.55bn during the first quarter
against USD9.88bn in Jan-Mar 2015.
Overseas investors have infused over Rs126bn into country's equity markets this month,
making it highest inflow in four months on rising hopes of passage of the GST Bill.
✍ TOP CORPORATE NEWS -
Escorts announced the divestment of its OEM and export business of auto products
division to Pune’s Badve Engineering. The company, however, did not disclose the deal
size.
GVK Power & Infrastructure Ltd has said it is hopeful of bagging the mandate to
develop the Navi Mumbai greenfield airport project.
GVK Power & Infrastructure Ltd said it was in advanced stage of negotiations to sell
one of its BOT road projects as part of its ongoing efforts to reduce the debt levels.
Oil and Natural Gas Corp and its partners will invest Rs8.23bn to produce natural gas
from coal seams of its Bokaro block in Jharkhand from 2017-18.
Aurobindo Pharma will set up a facility to manufacture 50mn dosages of vaccines Per
Annum as it plans to launch its vaccine products commercially in 2018.
In a big blow to Infosys Limited, the Royal Bank of Scotland has canceled a major
contract that will impact as many as 3,000 of Infosys employees and impact revenues for
13. the year by about USD 40 million.
Yes Bank Limited plans to raise USD 1 billion about Rs. 68.85 billion through QIP in
the next 7 months for which it has started engagement with large investors across
geographies.
Kotak Mahindra Bank Limited has started an 'Innovation Lab' in Bengaluru to tap into
the best technology that impacts its operations, and is open to investing in start ups.
Hindustan Copper Limited has inaugurated the country's first facility to produce nickel,
a metal for which the country is completely dependent on imports. The new facility--
Nickel, Copper and Acid Recovery Plant is located at the company's Indian Copper
Complex at Ghatshila in Jharkhand.
Maruti Suzuki India plans to bring more products with hybrid technology over the next
few years as concern for safeguarding environment increases in India.
Hindalco's Industries Limited Novelis unit will launch a bond sale in the US to raise as
much as USD 1.1 billion to refinance debt.
Rivigo has ordered 1,200 medium and heavy commercial vehicles from Ashok Leyland
Limited for its pan-India fleet.
Bharti Airtel announced launch of 4G service in Kharagpur, becoming the first operator
to unveil the service in Bengal telecom circle using dual spectrum bands of 2300MHz and
1800MHz.
Thermax Limited said it plans to made an additional investment of up to Rs. 60 million
in First Energy Pvt Ltd, alternative energy solutions company.
Infosys Limited, India's second largest software firm has built an internal predictive
analytics tool that identifies top performers, measure organisation health and look at
potential talent that is exploring outside to help retain them.
Niti Aayog has identified some of the subsidiaries of the Steel Authority of India Limited
for strategic sale.
Rane Engine Valve Limited has sold its 6.8 acres in Alandur, Chennai, for Rs. 948
million.
14. ✍ TOP BANKING AND FINANCIAL NEWS OF THE WEEK
State-run lenders may offer concessional finance to private companies bidding for key
projects abroad as part of a strategy to step up strategic investment overseas. The
government is considering a mechanism to ensure the viability of such lending, said
officials aware of the matter.
"A committee will be formed with the finance ministry which will look into the issue,"
one of them said. "Infrastructure projects in those countries where India has both strategic
and economic interest will be given preference." Panel members will include the deputy
national security adviser and officials from other ministries including external affairs and
commerce.
Finding banks working under the fear of CBI and CVC as "bizzare", a Parliamentary
panel has asked lenders to take decision on financing of stressed assets as per their "own
wisdom" and on the basis of the project's viability. Finding that total NPAs of Rs 2.6 lakh
crore may go up to Rs 4 lakh crore on account of defaulting infrastructure projects, the
Parliamentary Standing Committee on Transport, headed by Kanwar Deep Singh, also
recommended banks can be empowered to make recovery of bad debts.
The stock market may have given the thumbs up to the State Bank of India for its first
quarter results, but some analysts said that investors must beware of hidden bad loans that
may emerge once the government appoints a new chief at the state-run lender in October.
SBI's shares gained 7.16% on the National Stock Exchange to close at Rs 243.20 on
Friday after it declared lower-than-estimated bad loans in the quarter to June.
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