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The End of IPv4 Foretold
Alix Guillard, RIPE NCC
<alix@ripe.net>
About IPv4
•   Main Internet protocol
•   32 bits encoded
•   232 (4,294,967,296) unique addresses
•   Regional management by five Regional Internet Registries (RIRs)
•   Global management by Internet Assigned Numbers Authority (IANA)




Alix Guillard, 23 November 2011                                       2
About IPv4




                                  Source: http://xkcd.com/195/


Alix Guillard, 23 November 2011                                  3
About IPv4




                                  Source: http://xkcdsw.com/3327


Alix Guillard, 23 November 2011                                    4
About the RIPE NCC
     Five Regional Internet Registries




Alix Guillard, 23 November 2011          5
About the RIPE NCC
•   Dutch non-profit company
•   Members (LIRs) are mainly the Internet Service Providers (ISPs)
•   Region: Europe, Middle East, parts of Central Asia
•   Regional registry for AS Numbers and IP addresses
•   RIPE Database maintenance
•   Other services: tools, training, statistics, meetings
•   Bottom-up governance (RIPE community)



Alix Guillard, 23 November 2011                                       6
About RIPE
•   Internet community at large
•   Open to anyone interested, no structure
•   Discussions on mailing lists and during RIPE Meetings
•   Organised in Working Groups
•   Decisions are taken by consensus
•   The RIPE NCC implements decisions taken by RIPE




Alix Guillard, 23 November 2011                             7
About RIPE: procedures
                                  •   Proposal
                                  •   Initial discussion
                                  •   Document writing
                                  •   Review
                                  •   Last call
                                  •   Consensus
                                  •   RIPE Document

                                                      More info: http://ripe.net/training/pdp


Alix Guillard, 23 November 2011                                                                 8
About RIPE: procedures




                                  Source:
                                  http://ripe.net/ripe/docs/ripe-530


Alix Guillard, 23 November 2011                                        9
The end of IPv4
  •    The end of IPv4 isn’t easy to predict

  •    Internet growth fluctuates
  •    Resources attribution rate changes
  •    Users’ reaction is unpredictable
                –   Panic, rationing, hoarding...

  •    Procedures evolve




Alix Guillard, 23 November 2011                     10
The end of IPv4
  •    The end of IPv4 isn’t easy to predict

  •    Internet growth fluctuates
  •    Resources attribution rate changes
  •    Users reaction is unpredictable
         –   Panic, rationing, hoarding...

  •    Procedures evolve




Alix Guillard, 23 November 2011                11
The end of IPv4
  •    3 February 2011
  •    IANA’s reserve was exhausted
  •    RIRs still have reserves
  •    IPv4 is still widely used


  •    This is not yet the end




Alix Guillard, 23 November 2011       12
The end of IPv4
•   3 policies aimed to be tied up with the end of IPv4
      –   3 accepted proposals
      –   3 RIPE policies
      –   3 phases of IPv4 exhaustion




Alix Guillard, 23 November 2011                           13
The end of IPv4
•   3 policies aimed to be tied up with the end of IPv4
      –   3 accepted proposals
      –   3 RIPE policies
      –   3 phases of IPv4 exhaustion


•   Global fairness (2008-03)
•   Regional care (2009-03)
•   Rationing (2010-02)


Alix Guillard, 23 November 2011                           14
The end of IPv4, Global fairness (2008-03)




•   Global Policy (all RIRs are concerned)
•   IANA IPv4 allocations to the RIRs
•   One of the last five /8s for each of the five RIRs
–   Regions with strong growth would have enough resources to implement IPv6
–   Regions with lower growth will have more time to implement IPv6


Alix Guillard, 23 November 2011                                                15
The end of IPv4, Global fairness (2008-03)
•   Global policy
      –   5 regional policies
      –   Same text
      –   Accepted in 5 regions
      –   Submitted to ICANN      Source: http://nro.net/policies/global-policies-development-process




Alix Guillard, 23 November 2011                                                                         16
The end of IPv4, Global fairness (2008-03)
•   Global policy
      –   5 regional policies
      –   Same text
      –   Accepted in 5 regions
      –   Submitted to ICANN                   Source: http://nro.net/policies/global-policies-development-process




       ripe-436                                                               ARIN nrpm 10.4
                                  AFPUB-2009-v4-001
                                                            apnic-086
                  LACNIC Policy Manual 9.2
Alix Guillard, 23 November 2011                                                                                      17
The end of IPv4, Global fairness (2008-03)




Alix Guillard, 23 November 2011              18
The end of IPv4, Global fairness (2008-03)

                             RIR Address Pool Size




                                                     Source:
                                                     http://www.potaroo.net/tools/ipv4/


Alix Guillard, 23 November 2011                                                           19
The end of IPv4, Global fairness (2008-03)

                             RIR Address Pool Size




                                                     Source:
                                                     http://www.potaroo.net/tools/ipv4/


Alix Guillard, 23 November 2011                                                           20
The end of IPv4, Regional care (2009-03)




•   Regional policy (only in RIPE NCC service region)
•   RIPE NCC IPv4 allocations to LIRs
•   Reduction of LIRs’ allocation period




Alix Guillard, 23 November 2011                         21
The end of IPv4, Regional care (2009-03)
                                           « Run out fairly »
                                           Trying to reduce impression of
                                           unfairness with the last
                                           allocations


                                           July 2010 = 9 months
                                           January 2011 = 6 months
                                           July 2011 = 3 months




                                             Source:
                                             http://ripe.net/ripe/docs/ripe-530


Alix Guillard, 23 November 2011                                                   22
The end of IPv4, Regional care (2009-03)
•   It’s too early to know if « Run out fairly » was efficient
      –   IPv4 still left in RIPE NCC pool
      –   All LIRs are still served according to their needs
      –   but...
•   APNIC reached its last /8
      –   In this region, LIRs are not served according to their needs
      –   No unfairness sentiment in the Asia-Pacific region




Alix Guillard, 23 November 2011                                          23
The end of IPv4, Regional care (2009-03)
IPv4 tickets managed by the RIPE NCC




Alix Guillard, 23 November 2011            24
The end of IPv4, Regional care (2009-03)
IPv4 tickets managed by the RIPE NCC




Alix Guillard, 23 November 2011            25
The end of IPv4, Regional care (2009-03)
IPv4 tickets managed by the RIPE NCC

                          needs for 12 months   needs for 9 months   needs for 6 months   needs for 3 months




Alix Guillard, 23 November 2011                                                                                26
The end of IPv4, Regional care (2009-03)
IPv4 tickets managed by the RIPE NCC

                          needs for 12 months   needs for 9 months   needs for 6 months   needs for 3 months




Alix Guillard, 23 November 2011                                                                                27
The end of IPv4, Regional care (2009-03)
IPv4 tickets managed by the RIPE NCC

                          needs for 12 months   needs for 9 months   needs for 6 months   needs for 3 months




Alix Guillard, 23 November 2011                                                                                28
The end of IPv4, Regional care (2009-03)
RIPE NCC IPv4 pool




Alix Guillard, 23 November 2011            29
The end of IPv4, rationing (2010-02)




•   Regional policy (also policy in another region)
•   Implemented for /8 of the pool
•   LIRs will only receive one /22 once
•   LIRs must deploy IPv6



Alix Guillard, 23 November 2011                       30
The end of IPv4, rationing (2010-02)
                                       Last /8 Policy
                                       When the RIPE NCC reaches the
                                       last /8 of its pool, every LIR will
                                       only be able to get one /22 on
                                       the condition it already has an
                                       IPv6 allocation


                                       On top of this, the RIPE NCC
                                       keeps one /16 just in case.




                                          Source:
                                          http://ripe.net/ripe/docs/ripe-530


Alix Guillard, 23 November 2011                                                31
The end of IPv4, rationing (2010-02)
•   Very constraining policy for LIRs
      –   for many of them, resources are already exhausted

•   Small benefit for the community
      –   LIRs with little need can still get what they require




Alix Guillard, 23 November 2011                                   32
The end of IPv4, rationing (2010-02)
•   Very constraining policy for LIRs
      –   for many of them, resources are already exhausted

•   Small benefit for the community
      –   LIRs with little need can still get what they require



IPv6 non-deployment
•   Small benefit for LIRs
      –   no direct advantage to deploy IPv6

•   Strong constraint for the community
      –   If only one LIR doesn’t deploy, all will have a problem

Alix Guillard, 23 November 2011                                     33
The end of IPv4, rationing (2010-02)
•   Same policy in Asia-Pacific region
•   APNIC reached its last /8
•   For many the shortage is already here




Alix Guillard, 23 November 2011             34
The end of IPv4, rationing (2010-02)
•   Same policy in Asia-Pacific region
•   APNIC reached its last /8
•   For many the shortage is already here




                                            Source:
                                            http://www.potaroo.net/tools/ipv4/


Alix Guillard, 23 November 2011                                                  35
The end of IPv4, rationing (2010-02)
•   Alternatives adopted by LIRs in the APNIC region
      –   IPv6 ?
      –   NAT
      –   CGN
      –   Transfers




Alix Guillard, 23 November 2011                        36
The end of IPv4, rationing (2010-02)
                                       Transfers
                                       Transfers are authorised by RIRs.
                                       The new recipient must justify his
                                       need.
                                       The new recipient must be in the
                                       same region.




                                          Source:
                                          http://ripe.net/ripe/docs/ripe-530


Alix Guillard, 23 November 2011                                                37
IPv6 Uptake
The plan




                                  Source:
                                  http://www.potaroo.net/tools/ipv4/


Alix Guillard, 23 November 2011                                        38
IPv6 Uptake
The reality (in 2009)




                                  Source:
                                  http://www.potaroo.net/tools/ipv4/


Alix Guillard, 23 November 2011                                        39
IPv6 Uptake
•   The RIPE NCC supports IPv6 uptake
      –   Trainings, IPv6ActNow.org, RIPE Labs
•   The RIPE NCC measures IPv6 uptake
      –   IPv6 RIPEness
      –   IPv6 ASN count
      –   World IPv6 Day
•   Others measure IPv6 uptake
      –   Google, Yahoo...
      –   Alexa


Alix Guillard, 23 November 2011                  40
IPv6 RIPEness
TOP 15 countries with most LIRs
                        1star           2star              3star             4star             No IPv6
    1200


    1000


      800


      600


      400


      200
                                                                                                Source:
         0                                                                                      http://ipv6ripeness.ripe.net/
              RU      UK     DE   IT   FR   NL   ES   SE     CH    CZ   PL    NO     AT   UA    http://labs.ripe.net/Members/mirjam/ipv6-ripeness/




Alix Guillard, 23 November 2011                                                                                                                      41
IPv6 ASN Count




                                  Source:
                                  http://v6asns.ripe.net


Alix Guillard, 23 November 2011                            42
World IPv6 Day
•   RIPE NCC made tests before, during and after this day




                                                Sources:
                                                http://labs.ripe.net/ipv6day


Alix Guillard, 23 November 2011                                                43
World IPv6 Day
•   Percentage of users


•   Google


•   Yahoo


•   RIPE NCC



Alix Guillard, 23 November 2011   44
World IPv6 Day
•   Percentage of users


•   Google : 0,11%


•   Yahoo : 0,22%


•   RIPE NCC



Alix Guillard, 23 November 2011   45
World IPv6 Day
•   Percentage of users


•   Google : 0,11%


•   Yahoo : 0,22%


•   RIPE NCC : 5%



Alix Guillard, 23 November 2011   46
World IPv6 Day
Visitors on ripe.net
                                  ripe.net only delivers 2% of its
                                  users in IPv6 but 6% of them
                                  can already use IPv6.


                                  Visitors with IPv6 compatible
                                  resolvers reached 12% in
                                  October 2011.




Alix Guillard, 23 November 2011                                      47
World IPv6 Day
Biggest websites
                                  4% of the world biggest
                                  websites participated in World
                                  IPv6 Day.
                                  Some of them didn’t switch off
                                  IPv6 after this day.




                                  More infos on : http://labs.ripe.net/




Alix Guillard, 23 November 2011                                           48
IPv6 Uptake
IPv6 map




Alix Guillard, 23 November 2011   49
IPv6 Uptake
IPv6 map




                    Address space allocated during the last 100 years


Alix Guillard, 23 November 2011                                         50
Questions?

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The End of IPv4 Foretold

  • 1. The End of IPv4 Foretold Alix Guillard, RIPE NCC <alix@ripe.net>
  • 2. About IPv4 • Main Internet protocol • 32 bits encoded • 232 (4,294,967,296) unique addresses • Regional management by five Regional Internet Registries (RIRs) • Global management by Internet Assigned Numbers Authority (IANA) Alix Guillard, 23 November 2011 2
  • 3. About IPv4 Source: http://xkcd.com/195/ Alix Guillard, 23 November 2011 3
  • 4. About IPv4 Source: http://xkcdsw.com/3327 Alix Guillard, 23 November 2011 4
  • 5. About the RIPE NCC Five Regional Internet Registries Alix Guillard, 23 November 2011 5
  • 6. About the RIPE NCC • Dutch non-profit company • Members (LIRs) are mainly the Internet Service Providers (ISPs) • Region: Europe, Middle East, parts of Central Asia • Regional registry for AS Numbers and IP addresses • RIPE Database maintenance • Other services: tools, training, statistics, meetings • Bottom-up governance (RIPE community) Alix Guillard, 23 November 2011 6
  • 7. About RIPE • Internet community at large • Open to anyone interested, no structure • Discussions on mailing lists and during RIPE Meetings • Organised in Working Groups • Decisions are taken by consensus • The RIPE NCC implements decisions taken by RIPE Alix Guillard, 23 November 2011 7
  • 8. About RIPE: procedures • Proposal • Initial discussion • Document writing • Review • Last call • Consensus • RIPE Document More info: http://ripe.net/training/pdp Alix Guillard, 23 November 2011 8
  • 9. About RIPE: procedures Source: http://ripe.net/ripe/docs/ripe-530 Alix Guillard, 23 November 2011 9
  • 10. The end of IPv4 • The end of IPv4 isn’t easy to predict • Internet growth fluctuates • Resources attribution rate changes • Users’ reaction is unpredictable – Panic, rationing, hoarding... • Procedures evolve Alix Guillard, 23 November 2011 10
  • 11. The end of IPv4 • The end of IPv4 isn’t easy to predict • Internet growth fluctuates • Resources attribution rate changes • Users reaction is unpredictable – Panic, rationing, hoarding... • Procedures evolve Alix Guillard, 23 November 2011 11
  • 12. The end of IPv4 • 3 February 2011 • IANA’s reserve was exhausted • RIRs still have reserves • IPv4 is still widely used • This is not yet the end Alix Guillard, 23 November 2011 12
  • 13. The end of IPv4 • 3 policies aimed to be tied up with the end of IPv4 – 3 accepted proposals – 3 RIPE policies – 3 phases of IPv4 exhaustion Alix Guillard, 23 November 2011 13
  • 14. The end of IPv4 • 3 policies aimed to be tied up with the end of IPv4 – 3 accepted proposals – 3 RIPE policies – 3 phases of IPv4 exhaustion • Global fairness (2008-03) • Regional care (2009-03) • Rationing (2010-02) Alix Guillard, 23 November 2011 14
  • 15. The end of IPv4, Global fairness (2008-03) • Global Policy (all RIRs are concerned) • IANA IPv4 allocations to the RIRs • One of the last five /8s for each of the five RIRs – Regions with strong growth would have enough resources to implement IPv6 – Regions with lower growth will have more time to implement IPv6 Alix Guillard, 23 November 2011 15
  • 16. The end of IPv4, Global fairness (2008-03) • Global policy – 5 regional policies – Same text – Accepted in 5 regions – Submitted to ICANN Source: http://nro.net/policies/global-policies-development-process Alix Guillard, 23 November 2011 16
  • 17. The end of IPv4, Global fairness (2008-03) • Global policy – 5 regional policies – Same text – Accepted in 5 regions – Submitted to ICANN Source: http://nro.net/policies/global-policies-development-process ripe-436 ARIN nrpm 10.4 AFPUB-2009-v4-001 apnic-086 LACNIC Policy Manual 9.2 Alix Guillard, 23 November 2011 17
  • 18. The end of IPv4, Global fairness (2008-03) Alix Guillard, 23 November 2011 18
  • 19. The end of IPv4, Global fairness (2008-03) RIR Address Pool Size Source: http://www.potaroo.net/tools/ipv4/ Alix Guillard, 23 November 2011 19
  • 20. The end of IPv4, Global fairness (2008-03) RIR Address Pool Size Source: http://www.potaroo.net/tools/ipv4/ Alix Guillard, 23 November 2011 20
  • 21. The end of IPv4, Regional care (2009-03) • Regional policy (only in RIPE NCC service region) • RIPE NCC IPv4 allocations to LIRs • Reduction of LIRs’ allocation period Alix Guillard, 23 November 2011 21
  • 22. The end of IPv4, Regional care (2009-03) « Run out fairly » Trying to reduce impression of unfairness with the last allocations July 2010 = 9 months January 2011 = 6 months July 2011 = 3 months Source: http://ripe.net/ripe/docs/ripe-530 Alix Guillard, 23 November 2011 22
  • 23. The end of IPv4, Regional care (2009-03) • It’s too early to know if « Run out fairly » was efficient – IPv4 still left in RIPE NCC pool – All LIRs are still served according to their needs – but... • APNIC reached its last /8 – In this region, LIRs are not served according to their needs – No unfairness sentiment in the Asia-Pacific region Alix Guillard, 23 November 2011 23
  • 24. The end of IPv4, Regional care (2009-03) IPv4 tickets managed by the RIPE NCC Alix Guillard, 23 November 2011 24
  • 25. The end of IPv4, Regional care (2009-03) IPv4 tickets managed by the RIPE NCC Alix Guillard, 23 November 2011 25
  • 26. The end of IPv4, Regional care (2009-03) IPv4 tickets managed by the RIPE NCC needs for 12 months needs for 9 months needs for 6 months needs for 3 months Alix Guillard, 23 November 2011 26
  • 27. The end of IPv4, Regional care (2009-03) IPv4 tickets managed by the RIPE NCC needs for 12 months needs for 9 months needs for 6 months needs for 3 months Alix Guillard, 23 November 2011 27
  • 28. The end of IPv4, Regional care (2009-03) IPv4 tickets managed by the RIPE NCC needs for 12 months needs for 9 months needs for 6 months needs for 3 months Alix Guillard, 23 November 2011 28
  • 29. The end of IPv4, Regional care (2009-03) RIPE NCC IPv4 pool Alix Guillard, 23 November 2011 29
  • 30. The end of IPv4, rationing (2010-02) • Regional policy (also policy in another region) • Implemented for /8 of the pool • LIRs will only receive one /22 once • LIRs must deploy IPv6 Alix Guillard, 23 November 2011 30
  • 31. The end of IPv4, rationing (2010-02) Last /8 Policy When the RIPE NCC reaches the last /8 of its pool, every LIR will only be able to get one /22 on the condition it already has an IPv6 allocation On top of this, the RIPE NCC keeps one /16 just in case. Source: http://ripe.net/ripe/docs/ripe-530 Alix Guillard, 23 November 2011 31
  • 32. The end of IPv4, rationing (2010-02) • Very constraining policy for LIRs – for many of them, resources are already exhausted • Small benefit for the community – LIRs with little need can still get what they require Alix Guillard, 23 November 2011 32
  • 33. The end of IPv4, rationing (2010-02) • Very constraining policy for LIRs – for many of them, resources are already exhausted • Small benefit for the community – LIRs with little need can still get what they require IPv6 non-deployment • Small benefit for LIRs – no direct advantage to deploy IPv6 • Strong constraint for the community – If only one LIR doesn’t deploy, all will have a problem Alix Guillard, 23 November 2011 33
  • 34. The end of IPv4, rationing (2010-02) • Same policy in Asia-Pacific region • APNIC reached its last /8 • For many the shortage is already here Alix Guillard, 23 November 2011 34
  • 35. The end of IPv4, rationing (2010-02) • Same policy in Asia-Pacific region • APNIC reached its last /8 • For many the shortage is already here Source: http://www.potaroo.net/tools/ipv4/ Alix Guillard, 23 November 2011 35
  • 36. The end of IPv4, rationing (2010-02) • Alternatives adopted by LIRs in the APNIC region – IPv6 ? – NAT – CGN – Transfers Alix Guillard, 23 November 2011 36
  • 37. The end of IPv4, rationing (2010-02) Transfers Transfers are authorised by RIRs. The new recipient must justify his need. The new recipient must be in the same region. Source: http://ripe.net/ripe/docs/ripe-530 Alix Guillard, 23 November 2011 37
  • 38. IPv6 Uptake The plan Source: http://www.potaroo.net/tools/ipv4/ Alix Guillard, 23 November 2011 38
  • 39. IPv6 Uptake The reality (in 2009) Source: http://www.potaroo.net/tools/ipv4/ Alix Guillard, 23 November 2011 39
  • 40. IPv6 Uptake • The RIPE NCC supports IPv6 uptake – Trainings, IPv6ActNow.org, RIPE Labs • The RIPE NCC measures IPv6 uptake – IPv6 RIPEness – IPv6 ASN count – World IPv6 Day • Others measure IPv6 uptake – Google, Yahoo... – Alexa Alix Guillard, 23 November 2011 40
  • 41. IPv6 RIPEness TOP 15 countries with most LIRs 1star 2star 3star 4star No IPv6 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 Source: 0 http://ipv6ripeness.ripe.net/ RU UK DE IT FR NL ES SE CH CZ PL NO AT UA http://labs.ripe.net/Members/mirjam/ipv6-ripeness/ Alix Guillard, 23 November 2011 41
  • 42. IPv6 ASN Count Source: http://v6asns.ripe.net Alix Guillard, 23 November 2011 42
  • 43. World IPv6 Day • RIPE NCC made tests before, during and after this day Sources: http://labs.ripe.net/ipv6day Alix Guillard, 23 November 2011 43
  • 44. World IPv6 Day • Percentage of users • Google • Yahoo • RIPE NCC Alix Guillard, 23 November 2011 44
  • 45. World IPv6 Day • Percentage of users • Google : 0,11% • Yahoo : 0,22% • RIPE NCC Alix Guillard, 23 November 2011 45
  • 46. World IPv6 Day • Percentage of users • Google : 0,11% • Yahoo : 0,22% • RIPE NCC : 5% Alix Guillard, 23 November 2011 46
  • 47. World IPv6 Day Visitors on ripe.net ripe.net only delivers 2% of its users in IPv6 but 6% of them can already use IPv6. Visitors with IPv6 compatible resolvers reached 12% in October 2011. Alix Guillard, 23 November 2011 47
  • 48. World IPv6 Day Biggest websites 4% of the world biggest websites participated in World IPv6 Day. Some of them didn’t switch off IPv6 after this day. More infos on : http://labs.ripe.net/ Alix Guillard, 23 November 2011 48
  • 49. IPv6 Uptake IPv6 map Alix Guillard, 23 November 2011 49
  • 50. IPv6 Uptake IPv6 map Address space allocated during the last 100 years Alix Guillard, 23 November 2011 50