This PhD thesis examines the impact of fluctuations in global agricultural commodity markets on future food security in Arab countries. The thesis is divided into three parts with multiple chapters. Part one provides an overview of global food consumption patterns and reasons for volatility in wheat, rice and maize markets. Part two analyzes agricultural characteristics and food security issues in Arab countries. Part three measures the impact of international food price changes on domestic prices and consumption in Arab countries, finding some countries more vulnerable. It recommends short-term policies like export restrictions and long-term policies to reduce dependence on imports by enhancing domestic agriculture.

1. -A-
Summary
The topic of this PhD thesis is: The impact of the fluctuations in
global markets for agricultural crops on the future of food security
in Arab countries (An econometric study)
This PhD dissertation is divided into three parts, each part is
divided into two chapters.
The first part is an overview of world’s per capita pattern of
consumption of food, and the main reasons behind the fluctuations
in global markets of agricultural food crops. Chapter one of this part
concentrates on main agricultural food crops. In 2011, about 82%
of world’s per capita intake of calories is from vegetal products, and
45% of world’s per capita intake of calories is from cereals, and as
a result of the inability to study all types of cereals, the researcher
focused on the three mega crops of cereals; wheat, rice, and maize.
In addition, the chapter focused on studying the market of these
three crops, which include major producers, consumers, exporters,
and importers. From the analysis of these markets, the researcher
deduced that most of the producers and exporters of these three
mega crops are the developed and emerging countries, while the
share of the developing countries is very small. Finally, the chapter
provided an overview of the way prices of the agricultural crops are
determined, and the difference between volatility, trend, and spikes
of prices.
Chapter two of part one concentrates on the main reasons
behind the fluctuations in the international prices of food crops;
focusing on wheat, maize, and rice. Reasons mentioned in this
chapter are the unconventional effects that affect prices, such as; the
effect of climate change, the effect of biofuels, the concentration of
world’s exports of major food crops, export restrictions on world’s

2. -B-
food crops, world’s aggressive food imports, the decline in world’s
food reserves, the impact of futures trading, the role of emerging
countries, and the lack of information on world’s food market. At
the end of the chapter, the researcher gave an overview of the role
of crude oil and fertilizers in affecting the international prices of
food.
Part two provides an overview of the agricultural sector in Arab
countries and the problem of food security. In order to clearly
understand the problem of food security in Arab countries, chapter
one concentrated on major agricultural characteristics of the Arab
region and the main problems that face the sector; such as, the
scarcity of water resources and the high dependency on external
water resources. Agricultural labour force in Arab countries also
faces many problems that lead to high migration rates. Furthermore,
investment in the sector and the problems that are related to R and
D is also a major concern. On the other hand, climate change has
some negative effects on the agricultural sector in Arab countries;
such as the repetition of drought periods and the lack of rainfall.
After presenting the problems of the agricultural sector in the
Arab region, chapter two provided some indicators of food security
in Arab countries. The evaluation of the problem of food security
showed that the main problem is in the high dependency of Arab
countries on the imports of food, which makes the region exposed
to the fluctuations in the international prices of food. On the other
hand, there are some factors that contribute to the problem of food
security in the region; such as the effect of the problems that face
the agricultural sector and the continuous growth in the number of
population.

3. -C-
In part three, the researcher tried to measure the impact of the
fluctuations in the international prices of cereals on food security in
Arab countries, in addition to recommending some policies to
reduce this impact. The part is divided into two chapters; chapter
one which measures the impact of international food prices on food
security in Arab countries, and chapter two which recommends
some policies that help in reducing the impact of food price
transmission on food security in Arab countries.
In chapter one of part three, the researcher applied two types of
models; model one which measures the impact of the transmission
of international food prices into the domestic prices and model two
which measures the impact of the domestic prices of cereals on
consumers’ consumption of cereals. The researcher chose wheat,
rice, and maize as the main types of cereals. The model also
excluded Comoros, Libya, Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE, and North
Sudan, due to the lack of data on domestic prices in these countries.
The results of model one showed that Egypt, Jordan, Palestine,
Yemen, and Algeria are the most vulnerable countries to volatility
in the international prices of wheat. While Djibouti, Egypt, Somalia,
and Tunisia are the most affected by changes in the international
prices of rice. And in terms of maize, Kuwait, Egypt, Jordan,
Lebanon, Palestine, Somalia, and Yemen are the most affected
countries by changes in the international prices.
As for model two, the researcher applied the model on only ten
Arab countries due to the lack of data on other countries. The model
was applied on Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco, Palestine,
Somalia, Syria, Yemen, Tunisia, and Algeria. The model showed a
negative impact of changes in the international prices of cereals on
per capita intake of calories in these countries. Therefore, volatility

4. -D-
of the international prices of cereals can affect food security in these
countries.
In chapter two, the researcher suggested some policies to face
the impact of international food price transmission on food security
in Arab countries. Suggested policies were divided into types:
 Short run policies: These policies concentrate on procedures
taken by other countries to face the problem of high international
food prices. In the light of other countries’ experiences, the
researcher suggested applying some restrictions on the exports
of cereals, reducing tariffs on the imports of cereals, launching
national reserves of cereals, in addition to applying some social
protection programs. However, these procedures can’t be
applied for a long time as countries are in need of policies that
help in reducing dependency on the imports of cereals.
 Long run policies: These policies help in reducing dependency
on the imports of cereals through enhancing the role of the
agricultural sector in Arab countries. Policies such as
management of natural resources, enhancing the role of
agricultural labour force, building strategic national reserves,
adapting to climate change phenomenon, policies of agricultural
marketing, developing rural areas, developing the role of R and
D, supporting farmers, in addition to enhancing agricultural
investment are all policies that can help in reducing the
dependency on the imports of cereals. Cooperation of Arab
countries in adopting a common agricultural strategy to enhance
the role of the agricultural sector is crucial to face the problem
of food security in the future.

5. -E-
The results of the study showe that Arab countries are vulnerable
to volatility in the international prices of agricultural food
commodities. However, not all Arab countries have the same
degree of vulnerability to volatility in the international prices of
cereals. These countries could be grouped according to the
highest food price transmission as follows:
 Wheat: In the case of wheat, Egypt, Jordan, Palestine, Yemen,
and Algeria are countries that have food price transmission that
is higher than 0.50%.
 Rice: In this group, Djibouti, Egypt, Somalia and Tunisia are
found. These countries have food price transmission that is
higher than 0.50%.
 Maize: In the case of maize, Kuwait, Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon,
Palestine, Somalia, and Yemen are countries that have food price
transmission that is higher than 0.50%.
Despite the fact that most Arab countries are vulnerable to
volatility in the international prices of cereals, some of them have
high fiscal ability to face the fluctuations in the international prices
of cereals. Therefore, they could be grouped according to the
vulnerability to fluctuations in the international prices of cereals and
their fiscal ability to face these fluctuations:
A. Countries with high price and quantity risk: This group includes
countries that highly depend on the imports of cereals and have
low fiscal ability to face the fluctuations in the international
prices of food. In this group comes Jordan, Lebanon, Djibouti,
Yemen, Tunisia, and Morocco.
B. Countries with high quantity risk and low price risk: This group
includes oil exporter countries. These countries have the fiscal
ability to face the fluctuations in the international prices of

6. -F-
cereals, despite the fact that they are highly dependent on the
imports of cereals. In this group comes Bahrain, Qatar, Oman,
Libya, UAE, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Algeria.
C. Countries with low quantity risk and high price risk: In this
group, Syria, Sudan, and Egypt are found. These countries are
not highly dependent on cereals, but they don’t have the fiscal
ability to face the fluctuations in the international prices of
cereals.
It turns out from the study that volatility in the international
prices of cereals may have a negative effect on the state of food
security in some Arab countries. The impact of food price
transmission on the future of food security could be estimated by
building a scenario that is based on a change in the international
prices of wheat, rice, and maize by 1%. It turns out from this
scenarios that the impact of food price transmission on food security
may result in a decrease in the per capita intake of calories by 0.25%
in some Arab countries such as Egypt and 1.19% in the case of
Palestine. While in other countries the impact may be ineffective
such as Yemen (0.005%). However this scenario is based on a
change in the international prices of cereals by 1% only, while the
increase in the international prices may sometimes reach more than
100%.
The recommendations of the study will not differ from the
necessary policies mentioned in chapter two of part three. Since
Arab countries should follow some policies in the short run and the
long run to face the fluctuations in the international prices of
cereals. These policies are as follows:
 Short run policies: Policies in the short run are procedures that
Arab countries can implement to protect themselves from the
fluctuations in the international prices of cereals. In the light of

7. -G-
other countries’ experiences, the researcher suggested applying
some restrictions on the exports of cereals, reducing tariffs on
the imports of cereals, launching national reserves of cereals, in
addition to applying some social protection programs. However,
these procedures can’t be applied for a long time as countries are
in need of policies that help in reducing dependency on the
imports of cereals.
 Long run policies: These policies aim at reducing dependency
on the imports of cereals through enhancing the role of the
agricultural sector in Arab countries. Such policies may include
management of natural resources, enhancing the role of
agricultural labour force, building strategic national reserves,
adapting to climate change phenomenon, policies of agricultural
marketing, developing rural areas, developing the role of R and
D, supporting farmers, in addition to enhancing agricultural
investment are all policies that can help in reducing the
dependency on the imports of cereals.
 Cooperation of Arab countries in adopting a common
agricultural strategy to enhance the role of the agricultural sector
is crucial to face the problem of food security in the future.
Without this cooperation, it will be difficult for Arab countries
to face the fluctuations in the international prices of cereals and
enhance the state of food security of the region.

8. -H-
Abstract
Researcher Name: Sarah Hassan Mohammed Hassan Serag
Thesis title: “The impact of the fluctuations in global markets
for agricultural crops on the future of food security in Arab
countries” “An econometric study”.
A PhD thesis – Ain Shams University – Faculty of Commerce,
Economics Department, 2015
The study aims at measuring the impact of the fluctuations in
the international prices of agricultural food commodities on food
security in Arab countries. In part one, the researcher gave an
overview of the international markets of wheat, maize, and rice, in
addition to the main reasons behind the fluctuations in the
international prices of major agricultural food crops. Moving to part
two, the researcher provided an overview of the main characteristics
of the agricultural sector in Arab countries, in addition to studying
the state of food security in Arab countries through some food
security indicators. Finally, in part three, the researcher tried to
measure the impact of the transmission of international food prices
on food security in Arab countries. The researcher also provided
some recommendations to face the problem of the fluctuations in
the international prices of agricultural food commodities.
The researcher used the theoretical and the analytical
methodologies, in addition to the econometric methodology to
measure the impact of the transmission of international food prices
on food security in Arab countries.