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Enemies of the People
Gerhard Toews
New Economic School
Pierre-Louis Vézina
King’s College London
16th December 2019
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No mercy for these enemies of the people... War
to the death against the rich and their hangers-on,
the bourgeois intellectuals...
Lenin, 1917
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Whoever tries to break the unity of the socialist state... is a
sworn enemy of the state, of the peoples of the USSR.
And we will destroy any such enemy...
Stalin, 1937
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Enemies of the People
Used to designate a specific group: The educated elite
Journalists, artists, affluent peasants, engineers, lawyers, doctors, scientists, etc...
Identified as a threat to the Soviet regime, as counter-revolutionaries
Along with millions of other non-political prisoners 1, 3 million enemies were sent
to forced labor camps scattered across the Soviet Union: The GULAG
1It is estimated that 15 million people went through the GULAG system from 1928 to Stalin’s death.
Number of slaves taken from Africa between 17th and 19th century: 12 million.
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This paper
We look at the long-run effects of the forced resettlements of enemies of the people on
development outcomes across localities of the ex-Soviet Union
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Related papers
(Forced) migration has long-run effects as migrants take their human capital with them
Hornung (2014) shows that in the late 17th century Prussia, firms in areas receiving
skilled Huguenots from France experienced increased productivity.
Farmers resettled by policy experiment in Indonesia transfer their human capital
and skills (Bazzi et al. 2016).
Easterly and Levin (2016) also suggest the effect of Europeans colonizers is mostly
from the human capital they brought with them.
State sponsored settlements in Brazil around 1900 have higher levels of schooling
and income per capita today (Ferraz et al. 2016).
Europeans settlers raised literacy rates and helped industrialization in Argentinean
counties (Droller 2017).
Human capital spillovers from missionary areas contributed to superior education
outcomes (Valencia 2018).
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Related papers
(Forced) migration has long-run effects as migrants take their human capital with them
Cities where Gulag camps were located grew significantly faster than similar cities
without camps (Mikhailova 2012).
The location of a Gulag camp in a district is associated with anti-communist voting
during the last Soviet 1991 referendum and 1996 presidential election (Kapelko and
Markevitch 2014).
Jarotschkin and Zhuravskaya (2019) explore the ethnic deportations of Stalin and the
diffusion of gender norms.
Becker et al. (2018) educational investment (mobiles assets) of families who have
been exposed to forced migration.
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What we can learn from the enemies of the people
Our setting is akin to a natural experiment (to gauge the effect of human capital on
prosperity) with plausibly exogenous variation in human capital
No self-selection to destinations of forced migrants
Little evidence on endogenous location decisions on enemies (to be discussed!)
Little institutional heterogeneity (camps are operated from Moscow)
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HISTORICAL BACKGROUND
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The Gulag: served terror and industrialisation from 1920s to 1950s
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Source: Memorial
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ARCHIVAL DATA ON CAMPS
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Camp Data
⇒ Data on age, gender, education, ethnicity and type of committed crime on the camp
level in 1939, 1941 and 1952 was collected from the documents at GARF.2
2Jointly with two students, Lilia Shevchenko and Eugen Potorac, we have digitised all the data.
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Triangulation with Memorial Data (1941 wave)
⇒ Triangulation of aggregate numbers with Getty et al. (1993): missing 15% for 1939 and
3% for 1941 and 1952 waves.
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Table: Descriptives Gulag Camps
Mean 1939 Mean 1941 Mean 1952 Census 1939
(1) (2) (3) (4)
Share Women (%) 9 7 13 56
Ethnicities (%)
Russian - 66 - 58
Ukrainian - 11 - 14
Belorussians - 3 - 3
Other European - 4 - > 4
Kaukasians - 2 - > 3
Central Asian - 4 - > 4
Turkic in Russia - 2 - > 3
Other Asian - 0 - > 0
Education (%)
Illiterate 8 6.6 - 34
Primary 80 83 - 57
Secondary 10 8.7 - 6.8
Tertiary 1.8 1.6 - 0.6
Age (%)
<25 21 20 37 42
25-34 34 37 34 16
35-44 28 24 18 13
> 44 18 19 11 29
Share Enemies (%) 30 23 19 -
Crimes Anecdotal Evidence
Number of Prisoners 36580 20902 19284
Number of Camps 31 70 88
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Location and size of Camps
Source: Self-Constructed except location which is coming from Memorial. 74 regions for the period 1939-1989.
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Legacy of the Camps
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Gulag: The legacy
After Stalin’s death the Gulag slowly came to an end. But:
Prisoners often continued working on the same industrial projects (Cohen 2010)
Some camps emerged as industrial cities (example: Karaganda)
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Gulag: The legacy
Why enemies remained even when freed:
Stalin’s plan: No enemy should ever to be allowed to return home
Strict limits on mobility: Wolf tickets
Managers actively recruited ex-prisoners with the required technical skills
(Barenberg 2014)
Gulag towns had become a way of life
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Data
⇒ Link camps to Soviet Census on region level (1926, 1939, 1959, 1989, 2002, 2010).
For the periods 1939, 1959, 1989, 2002 and 2010 we are able to construct 74 spatial
entities, which are consistent across periods. Treatment Prisoners
We are also able to look at the pre-trend between 1926 and 1939. But for that period, we
are only able to construct 33 spatial entities which are stable across periods. No
statistically significant differences in trends between treated and control. Pre-Trend
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Census 1939 - 2010
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)
Pop. (000) Women (%) < 15 (%) > 44 (%) Tertiary (%)
Nr. Camps × 1959 60.630∗∗ -0.080 -0.013 -0.215 0.014
(26.036) (0.104) (0.153) (0.137) (0.057)
Nr. Camps × 1989 102.911 -0.084 -0.393∗∗ 0.303 0.255
(67.735) (0.097) (0.197) (0.196) (0.224)
Nr. Camps × 2002 114.603 0.022 -0.480∗∗ 0.577∗∗∗ 0.665∗∗
(80.382) (0.096) (0.196) (0.189) (0.298)
Nr. Camps × 2010 106.263 0.043 -0.277 0.628∗∗∗ 0.927∗∗
(99.076) (0.101) (0.181) (0.188) (0.424)
N 354 354 354 354 354
R-sq 0.25 0.57 0.83 0.81 0.88
Note: Robust standard errors are in parentheses : *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1. Year specific correlation
conditional on region and time FE. Share of individuals with a tertiary education is calculated for those
who are between 15 and 45.
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Gulag: The legacy
Does the share of enemies in a camp predict development outcomes today?
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Data and Empirics
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Data
Data on enemies: Camp-level data on prisoners from the archives (discussed above)
Data on night-light intensity in 2010: DMSP-OLS satellite program
Data on firms in 2014: Business Environment and Enterprise Performance Survey
(EBRD) ⇒ Replace with detailed Russian Firm Census (SPARK)!
Data on households in 2010: Life in Transition Survey (EBRD) ⇒ Replace with
detailed Russian HH Panel?
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ENEMIES as a natural experiment
All the books and reports we have read on the Great Terror (our preferred wave of 1941)
suggest that the arrests have been politically motivated. Citations
Enemies might have been allocated to
More productive regions
Skill-intensive or capital-intensive activities
Larger camps with agglomeration economies
Control Variables:
1. reflecting geographic conditions such as soil quality and elevation
2. reflecting economic activity of camps and resource extraction
3. reflecting human activity such as urbanisation, population density and camp size
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Controls
In total we collect and construct up to 40 variables capturing observables from 3 different
groups (geographic conditions, economic activity, human density).
Unconditional correlation between enemy share and the variables Raw Correlations :
Geography: positive correlation with Longitude and Latitude
Economic Activity: positive correlation with Forestry and Food Industry
Agglomeration: negative correlation with Population Density and Urbanisation
LASSO reduces the number of variables: Forestry, Pop. Den. and Urbanisation. LASSO
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Results
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Enemies vs. lights per capita
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Specification at the household or firm level
yi = c + α Enemiesi
Prisonersi
+ X β + ei
yi is a firm or household outcome in city i (within 30km of a Gulag)
Enemiesi
Prisonersi
is the share of enemies among prisoners in nearby Gulag(s)
X vector of controls for geography, country FE, firm industry, economic activity and
size of the Gulag(s)
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Results
Nightlights
per capita
Value added
per worker
Revenues
per worker
Average
wage
.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6
Factor increase
The box gives the 90% confidence interval, the spikes the 99% one.
Effect of a 17pp increase in the share of enemies
Lights Value added Revenues Wages
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Results
LiTS
BEEPS
-.05 0 .05 .1 .15 .2
Percentage point increase in the share
of tertiary educated household heads
The box gives the 90% confidence interval, the spikes the 99% one.
Effect of a 17pp increase in the share of enemies
BEEPS LiTS
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The education persistence of enemies
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Conclusion
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Conclusion
We highlight the prevalence of enemies of the people as Gulag prisoners in one of the
darkest episodes of recent history.
The forced resettlement of enemies is a strong predictor of prosperity today, captured
by night-lights, firm productivity, wages and education.
Our paper can be seen as a natural experiment that identifies the long-run
persistence of education and its effect on prosperity.
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Next on the Agenda
Collect better data on firms and households.
Data Collection in Process:
Railways and Waterways in 1939 and 2010
Arms Factories since 1920
Location of Universities
Science Cities (Schweiger et al. 2019)
City Level Census
Think harder about the mechanisms ⇒ nature versus nurture.
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Appendix
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Enemies of the people as human capital
Purges in Moscow Factories, 1936-1938: Directed almost exclusively against
managers and technical specialists
Purges in rural districts - 1937: The prime victims were the heads of local institutions
From Moscow and Leningrad telephone directories of the 1930s:
60% of senior officials of the People’s Commissariat of Heavy Industry present in 1937
were missing in 1939
3% of doctors disappeared, 30% of lawyers
Source: Getty and Manning (1993)
Table: Share of Enemies among reported occupations in 1939
Business & Artists Military Clerks Police Kulaks
Share Enemies 68 70 78 92 63
Back
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Table: Types of Crimes
1939 1939 1941 1941 1952 1952
Total % Total % Total %
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)
Enemies 12356 30 6101 23 5520 19
Social Order 9870 26 4759 23
Dangerous 6838 19 4633 25
Property Crimes 5476 15 3225 17
Abuse of Power 2842 9 1630 9
War Crimes 290 1 416 3
Number of Camps 30 30 70 70 88 88
Back
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Census 1926 - 1939
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)
Pop. Pop. Pop. Men Women
Prisoners 1941 0.092
(1.632)
Prisoners 1952 1.675
(1.625)
Prisoners 0.542 0.260 0.281
(0.987) (0.454) (0.537)
N 66 66 66 66 66
R-sq 0.17 0.18 0.17 0.15 0.19
Note: Robust standard errors are in parentheses : *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1.
Correlation conditional on region and time FE.
Back
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Census 1939 - 1959
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)
Pop. Pop. Pop. Men Women
Prisoners 1941 2.051∗∗∗
(0.753)
Prisoners 1952 4.650∗∗∗
(1.468)
Prisoners 1.840∗∗ 0.810∗∗ 1.030∗∗∗
(0.731) (0.396) (0.358)
N 148 148 148 148 148
R-sq 0.16 0.24 0.20 0.07 0.33
Note: Robust standard errors are in parentheses : *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1.
Correlation conditional on region and time FE.
Back
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Enemies as a natural experiment
The main purpose of the Great Terror was declared at the very outset to be the physical
annihilation of enemies rather than their use as cheap labor
The political motives for the Terror took absolute priority over economic ones
Back
Khlevnyuk (2003)
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⇒ 3000 prisoners increase population growth on average by 1pp.
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Table: Population Growth
Years 1939 1941 1952
(1) (2) (3)
A. Men
Men in 1000 0.002* 0.002* 0.003***
(0.001) (0.001) (0.001)
B. Women
Women in 1000 0.032*** 0.033*** 0.025***
(0.014) (0.011) (0.008)
C. Total
Total in 1000 0.003** 0.003*** 0.003***
(0.001) (0.001) (0.001)
Back
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Enemies’ share vs. Climate and land
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Enemies’ share vs. Natural Resources
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Enemies’ share vs. Gulag industries
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Enemies’ share vs. Population
Back
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The correlates of enemies
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)
Enemies 1939 (%) Enemies 1939 (%) Enemies 1941 (%) Enemies 1941 (%) Enemies 1952 (%) Enemies 1952 (%)
Forestry (=1) 18.883∗∗∗ 18.883∗∗∗ 19.056∗∗∗ 21.632∗∗∗
(6.631) (6.631) (4.525) (4.282)
Regional Urbanisation in 1926 -0.701∗∗∗ -0.701∗∗∗
(0.189) (0.189)
Regional Pop. Den. in 1926 -0.199∗∗∗ -0.299∗∗∗
(0.058) (0.063)
Constant 37.112∗∗∗ 37.112∗∗∗ 16.505∗∗∗ 13.125∗∗∗ 24.419∗∗∗ 18.936∗∗∗
(8.576) (8.576) (2.746) (2.241) (3.816) (2.964)
N 28 28 70 70 86 88
R-sq 0.69 0.69 0.32 0.28 0.09 0.00
Note: Robust standard errors are in parentheses : *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1. OLS based on the
variables determined as relevant by LASSO. In column 1, 3 and 5 we use absolute values of coefficient to
determine the penalty, while in the other columns we use the square root.
Back
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Table: Dependent Variable: Lights per capita (ln)
Panel A: 1939
(1) (2) (3) (4)
ln(Light per capita) ln(Light per capita) ln(Light per capita) ln(Light per capita)
Enemies in 1939 (%) 0.043∗∗∗ 0.044∗∗∗ 0.042∗ 0.040
(0.010) (0.013) (0.024) (0.023)
N 28 26 26 24
R-sq 0.38 0.41 0.44 0.40
Panel B: 1941
(1) (2) (3) (4)
ln(Light per capita) ln(Light per capita) ln(Light per capita) ln(Light per capita)
Enemies in 1941 (%) 0.027∗∗∗ 0.026∗∗∗ 0.020∗∗ 0.023∗∗
(0.007) (0.007) (0.010) (0.010)
N 70 68 68 64
R-sq 0.14 0.15 0.17 0.21
Panel C: 1952
(1) (2) (3) (4)
ln(Light per capita) ln(Light per capita) ln(Light per capita) ln(Light per capita)
Enemies in 1952 (%) 0.026∗∗∗ 0.023∗∗∗ 0.021∗∗∗ 0.021∗∗∗
(0.006) (0.007) (0.006) (0.006)
N 88 85 85 76
R-sq 0.24 0.29 0.44 0.35
Robust standard errors in parenthesis, and * stands for statistical significance at the 10% level, ** at the 5% level and *** at the
1% percent level. In column 1 the results of the first row of Table 29 are shown. In column 2 we account for country FE and
in column 3 we additionally account for forestry, population density and urbanisation. In column 4 we just keep Russia.
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Table: Dependent Variable: Lights per capita (ln)
Panel A: Share of Enemies of the People
All Gulags Gulags (>2 years)
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)
Enemies (%) 1.559∗∗∗ 0.819∗∗ 0.925∗∗ 1.252∗∗ 0.728∗ 0.925∗
(0.470) (0.402) (0.411) (0.501) (0.437) (0.506)
N 423 423 386 238 238 217
R-sq 0.34 0.44 0.41 0.31 0.43 0.40
Panel B: Dummy Variable
All Gulags Gulags (>2 years)
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)
Enemies (=1) 0.296∗ 0.141 0.163 0.090 0.030 0.079
(0.178) (0.162) (0.171) (0.210) (0.189) (0.199)
N 423 423 386 238 238 217
R-sq 0.33 0.43 0.41 0.29 0.42 0.39
Total prisoners Y Y Y Y Y Y
Country FE Y Y Y Y Y Y
Geography N Y Y N Y Y
Gulag activity N Y Y N Y Y
Conley standard errors in parenthesis, and * stands for statistical significance at the 10% level, ** at the 5% level and *** at the
1% percent level. In column 1-3 we use the full sample of Gulags. In column 4-6 we use only Gulags which remained active
for more than 2 years. In column 1 and 4 we present the results with country fixed effects as well as the the total number
of prisoners. In column 2 and 5 we control for additional geographical variables as well as dummies indicating the main
economic activities of Gulags. In column 3 and 6 we focus only on Russia, using the full-control specification of column 2 and
5.
Back
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Table: Dependent Variable: Revenues per employee (ln)
Panel A: Share of Enemies of the People
All Gulags Gulags (>2 years)
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)
Enemies (%) 0.990∗∗ 1.373∗∗∗ 1.864∗∗∗ 1.117∗∗ 1.824∗∗∗ 2.189∗∗∗
(0.471) (0.407) (0.465) (0.486) (0.419) (0.487)
N 2645 2645 1735 2323 2323 1614
R-sq 0.66 0.67 0.16 0.62 0.62 0.16
Panel B: Dummy Variable
All Gulags Gulags (>2 years)
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)
Enemies (=1) 0.355∗∗∗ 0.308∗∗∗ 0.305∗∗∗ 0.407∗∗∗ 0.357∗∗∗ 0.316∗∗∗
(0.098) (0.069) (0.076) (0.103) (0.066) (0.080)
N 2645 2645 1735 2323 2323 1614
R-sq 0.67 0.67 0.16 0.62 0.63 0.16
Total prisoners Y Y Y Y Y Y
Country FE Y Y Y Y Y Y
Industry FE Y Y Y Y Y Y
Geography N Y Y N Y Y
Gulag activity N Y Y N Y Y
Standard errors in parenthesis clustered by geographic exposure to enemies, and * stands for statistical significance at the 10%
level, ** at the 5% level and *** at the 1% percent level. In column 1-3 we use the full sample of Gulags. In column 4-6 we
use only Gulags which remained active for more than 2 years. In column 1 and 4 we present the results with country and
industry fixed effects as well as the the number of prisoners (ln). In column 2 and 5 we control for additional geographical
variables as well as dummies indicating the main economic activities of Gulags. In column 3 and 6 we focus only on Russia,
using the full-control specification of column 2 and 5.
Back
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Table: Dependent Variable: Value Added per employee (ln)
Panel A: Share of Enemies of the People
All Gulags Gulags (>2 years)
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)
Enemies (%) 0.598 1.176∗∗ 1.633∗∗∗ 0.656 1.560∗∗∗ 1.985∗∗∗
(0.444) (0.472) (0.542) (0.460) (0.513) (0.557)
N 1848 1848 1337 1657 1657 1255
R-sq 0.67 0.67 0.25 0.61 0.62 0.26
Panel B: Dummy Variable
All Gulags Gulags (>2 years)
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)
Enemies (=1) 0.296∗∗∗ 0.222∗∗ 0.240∗∗ 0.330∗∗∗ 0.254∗∗∗ 0.249∗∗
(0.110) (0.096) (0.100) (0.118) (0.098) (0.104)
N 1848 1848 1337 1657 1657 1255
R-sq 0.67 0.67 0.25 0.62 0.62 0.25
Total prisoners Y Y Y Y Y Y
Country FE Y Y Y Y Y Y
Industry FE Y Y Y Y Y Y
Geography N Y Y N Y Y
Gulag activity N Y Y N Y Y
Standard errors in parenthesis clustered by geographic exposure to enemies, and * stands for statistical significance at the 10%
level, ** at the 5% level and *** at the 1% percent level. In column 1-3 we use the full sample of Gulags. In column 4-6 we
use only Gulags which remained active for more than 2 years. In column 1 and 4 we present the results with country and
industry fixed effects as well as the the number of prisoners (ln). In column 2 and 5 we control for additional geographical
variables as well as dummies indicating the main economic activities of Gulags. In column 3 and 6 we focus only on Russia,
using the full-control specification of column 2 and 5.
Back
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Table: Dependent Variable: Average wages (ln)
Panel A: Share of Enemies of the People
All Gulags Gulags (>2 years)
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)
Enemies (%) 0.236 0.762∗ 0.960∗ 0.439 0.600 0.699
(0.480) (0.422) (0.522) (0.621) (0.452) (0.574)
N 2588 2588 1531 1723 1723 1141
R-sq 0.74 0.75 0.09 0.64 0.65 0.10
Panel B: Dummy Variable
All Gulags Gulags (>2 years)
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)
Enemies (=1) 0.233∗ 0.087 0.150 0.270∗∗ 0.106 0.103
(0.120) (0.090) (0.107) (0.137) (0.099) (0.126)
N 2588 2588 1531 1723 1723 1141
R-sq 0.74 0.75 0.09 0.64 0.65 0.10
Total prisoners Y Y Y Y Y Y
Country FE Y Y Y Y Y Y
Industry FE Y Y Y Y Y Y
Geography N Y Y N Y Y
Gulag activity N Y Y N Y Y
Standard errors clustered by geographic exposure to enemies, and * stands for statistical significance at the 10% level, ** at the
5% level and *** at the 1% percent level. In column 1-3 we use the full sample of Gulags. In column 4-6 we use only Gulags
active for more than 2 years. In column 1 and 4 we present the results with country and industry fixed effects as well as the the
number of prisoners (ln)]. In column 2 and 5 we control for additional geographical variables as well as dummies indicating
the main economic activities of Gulags. In column 3 and 6 we focus only on Russia, using the full-control specification.
Back
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Table: Dependent Variable: Years of Education
Panel A: Share of Enemies of the People
All Gulags Gulags (>2 years)
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)
Enemies (%) 0.931 1.595∗ 3.466∗∗∗ 1.108 1.676 3.986∗∗∗
(0.781) (0.933) (1.030) (0.790) (1.139) (1.030)
N 985 985 549 856 856 520
R-sq 0.13 0.15 0.09 0.11 0.12 0.10
Panel B: Dummy Variable
All Gulags Gulags (>2 years)
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)
Enemies (=1) 0.572∗∗∗ 0.597∗∗∗ 0.728∗∗∗ 0.635∗∗∗ 0.644∗∗∗ 0.775∗∗∗
(0.199) (0.173) (0.180) (0.213) (0.195) (0.183)
N 985 985 549 856 856 520
R-sq 0.14 0.15 0.09 0.12 0.13 0.10
Total prisoners Y Y Y Y Y Y
Country FE Y Y Y Y Y Y
Industry FE Y Y Y Y Y Y
Geography N Y Y N Y Y
Gulag activity N Y Y N Y Y
Standard errors in parenthesis clustered by geographic exposure to enemies, and * stands for statistical significance at the 10%
level, ** at the 5% level and *** at the 1% percent level. In column 1-3 we use the full sample of Gulags. In column 4-6 we
use only Gulags which remained active for more than 2 years. In column 1 and 4 we present the results with country and
industry fixed effects as well as the the number of prisoners (ln). In column 2 and 5 we control for additional geographical
variables as well as dummies indicating the main economic activities of Gulags. In column 3 and 6 we focus only on Russia,
using the full-control specification of column 2 and 5.
Back
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Table: Dependent Variable: > 13 Years of Education Dummy
Panel A: Share of Enemies of the People
All Gulags Gulags (>2 years)
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)
Enemies (%) 0.321 0.623∗∗∗ 0.854∗∗ 0.417∗ 0.623∗∗ 1.012∗∗∗
(0.211) (0.202) (0.342) (0.229) (0.270) (0.367)
N 985 985 549 856 856 520
R-sq 0.15 0.17 0.11 0.10 0.13 0.10
Panel B: Dummy Variable
All Gulags Gulags (>2 years)
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)
Enemies (=1) 0.087 0.115∗∗∗ 0.145∗∗∗ 0.116∗∗ 0.126∗∗∗ 0.151∗∗∗
(0.055) (0.044) (0.055) (0.059) (0.048) (0.057)
N 985 985 549 856 856 520
R-sq 0.15 0.17 0.10 0.11 0.13 0.09
Total prisoners Y Y Y Y Y Y
Country FE Y Y Y Y Y Y
Industry FE Y Y Y Y Y Y
Geography N Y Y N Y Y
Gulag activity N Y Y N Y Y
Standard errors in parenthesis clustered by geographic exposure to enemies, and * stands for statistical significance at the 10%
level, ** at the 5% level and *** at the 1% percent level. In column 1-3 we use the full sample of Gulags. In column 4-6 we
use only Gulags which remained active for more than 2 years. In column 1 and 4 we present the results with country and
industry fixed effects as well as the the number of prisoners (ln). In column 2 and 5 we control for additional geographical
variables as well as dummies indicating the main economic activities of Gulags. In column 3 and 6 we focus only on Russia,
using the full-control specification of column 2 and 5.
Back
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Table: Dependent Variable: Tertiary Education (Dummy=1)
Panel A: Share of Enemies of the People
All Gulags Gulags (>2 years)
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)
Enemies (%) 0.585∗ 0.350 0.798∗∗ 0.778∗ 0.852∗∗ 1.800∗∗∗
(0.337) (0.252) (0.313) (0.404) (0.413) (0.340)
N 822 822 224 573 573 198
R-sq 0.35 0.39 0.52 0.40 0.44 0.55
Panel B: Dummy Variable
All Gulags Gulags (>2 years)
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)
Enemies (=1) 0.182∗∗∗ 0.131∗∗ 0.079 0.201∗∗∗ 0.142∗∗ 0.102
(0.061) (0.059) (0.081) (0.060) (0.070) (0.093)
N 822 822 224 573 573 198
R-sq 0.36 0.39 0.51 0.40 0.44 0.52
Total prisoners Y Y Y Y Y Y
Country FE Y Y Y Y Y Y
Industry FE Y Y Y Y Y Y
Geography N Y Y N Y Y
Gulag activity N Y Y N Y Y
Standard errors in parenthesis clustered by geographic exposure to enemies, and * stands for statistical significance at the 10%
level, ** at the 5% level and *** at the 1% percent level. In column 1-3 we use the full sample of Gulags. In column 4-6 we use
only Gulags which remained active for more than 2 years. In column 1 and 4 we present the results with country fixed and
occupation fixed effects, gender, age and age squared of the household head as well as the the number of prisoners (ln). In
column 2 and 5 we control for additional geographical variables as well as dummies indicating the main economic activities
of Gulags. In column 3 and 6 we focus only on Russia, using the full-control specification of column 2 and 5.
Back 57 / 61
Table: The education persistence of enemies
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)
Mother’s education Mother’s education Mother’s education Mother’s education Mother’s education Mother’s education
Enemy grandparents 0.580∗∗∗ 0.475∗∗∗ 0.398∗∗∗
(0.086) (0.075) (0.076)
Enemy relatives 0.233∗∗∗ 0.239∗∗∗ 0.183∗∗∗
(0.073) (0.062) (0.065)
Income 0.160∗∗∗ 0.162∗∗∗
(0.019) (0.019)
Female -0.068∗∗∗ -0.067∗∗ -0.071∗∗∗ -0.069∗∗∗
(0.026) (0.026) (0.026) (0.026)
Age -0.038∗∗∗ -0.036∗∗∗ -0.038∗∗∗ -0.036∗∗∗
(0.001) (0.001) (0.001) (0.001)
N 18782 18782 15536 18782 18782 15536
R-sq 0.05 0.23 0.33 0.04 0.22 0.33
Notes: Robust standard errors in parenthesis with * standing for statistical significance at the 10%
level, ** at the 5% level and *** at the 1% percent level. Data is from LiTS 3, ex-Soviet countries only.
Country fixed effects and controls for latitude and longitude included in all regressions. Observations
weighted by survey sampling weights.
58 / 61
Table: The education persistence of enemies
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)
Father’s education Father’s education Father’s education Father’s education Father’s education Father’s education
Enemy grandparents 0.483∗∗∗ 0.401∗∗∗ 0.291∗∗∗
(0.090) (0.080) (0.080)
Enemy relatives 0.211∗∗∗ 0.212∗∗∗ 0.213∗∗∗
(0.074) (0.066) (0.070)
Income 0.166∗∗∗ 0.166∗∗∗
(0.021) (0.021)
Female -0.062∗∗ -0.063∗∗ -0.065∗∗ -0.064∗∗
(0.027) (0.028) (0.027) (0.028)
Age -0.032∗∗∗ -0.029∗∗∗ -0.032∗∗∗ -0.029∗∗∗
(0.001) (0.001) (0.001) (0.001)
N 18244 18244 15064 18244 18244 15064
R-sq 0.04 0.17 0.27 0.04 0.17 0.27
Notes: Robust standard errors in parenthesis with * standing for statistical significance at the 10%
level, ** at the 5% level and *** at the 1% percent level. Data is from LiTS 3, ex-Soviet countries only.
Country fixed effects and controls for latitude and longitude included in all regressions. Observations
weighted by survey sampling weights.
59 / 61
Table: The education persistence of enemies
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)
Education Education Education Education Education Education
Enemy grandparents 0.337∗∗∗ 0.302∗∗∗ 0.219∗∗∗
(0.075) (0.075) (0.077)
Enemy relatives 0.285∗∗∗ 0.276∗∗∗ 0.219∗∗∗
(0.068) (0.066) (0.065)
Income 0.218∗∗∗ 0.217∗∗∗
(0.019) (0.019)
Female -0.007 0.017 -0.008 0.017
(0.025) (0.026) (0.025) (0.026)
Age -0.010∗∗∗ -0.007∗∗∗ -0.010∗∗∗ -0.007∗∗∗
(0.001) (0.001) (0.001) (0.001)
N 19594 19594 16076 19594 19594 16076
R-sq 0.04 0.06 0.16 0.04 0.06 0.16
Notes: Robust standard errors in parenthesis with * standing for statistical significance
at the 10% level, ** at the 5% level and *** at the 1% percent level. Data is from LiTS
3, ex-Soviet countries only. Country fixed effects and controls for latitude and longitude
included in all regressions. Observations weighted by survey sampling weights.
60 / 61
Table: The income effect of enemies
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)
Income Income Income Income Income Income
Enemy grandparents 0.168∗∗∗ 0.128∗∗∗ 0.086∗∗
(0.044) (0.043) (0.043)
Enemy relatives 0.142∗∗∗ 0.136∗∗∗ 0.095∗∗
(0.040) (0.038) (0.037)
Female -0.061∗∗∗ -0.064∗∗∗ -0.061∗∗∗ -0.064∗∗∗
(0.018) (0.018) (0.018) (0.018)
Age -0.010∗∗∗ -0.009∗∗∗ -0.010∗∗∗ -0.009∗∗∗
(0.001) (0.001) (0.001) (0.001)
Education 0.129∗∗∗ 0.129∗∗∗
(0.006) (0.006)
N 16076 16076 16076 16076 16076 16076
R-sq 0.89 0.89 0.90 0.89 0.89 0.90
Notes: Robust standard errors in parenthesis with * standing for statistical significance
at the 10% level, ** at the 5% level and *** at the 1% percent level. Data is from LiTS
3, ex-Soviet countries only. Country fixed effects and controls for latitude and longitude
included in all regressions. Observations weighted by survey sampling weights.
61 / 61

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Sharjeel-Imam-Judgement-CRLA-215-2024_29-05-2024.pdf
 
What Ukraine Has Lost During Russia’s Invasion
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Enemies of the people

  • 1. Enemies of the People Gerhard Toews New Economic School Pierre-Louis Vézina King’s College London 16th December 2019
  • 3. No mercy for these enemies of the people... War to the death against the rich and their hangers-on, the bourgeois intellectuals... Lenin, 1917 3 / 61
  • 4. Whoever tries to break the unity of the socialist state... is a sworn enemy of the state, of the peoples of the USSR. And we will destroy any such enemy... Stalin, 1937 4 / 61
  • 5. Enemies of the People Used to designate a specific group: The educated elite Journalists, artists, affluent peasants, engineers, lawyers, doctors, scientists, etc... Identified as a threat to the Soviet regime, as counter-revolutionaries Along with millions of other non-political prisoners 1, 3 million enemies were sent to forced labor camps scattered across the Soviet Union: The GULAG 1It is estimated that 15 million people went through the GULAG system from 1928 to Stalin’s death. Number of slaves taken from Africa between 17th and 19th century: 12 million. 5 / 61
  • 6. This paper We look at the long-run effects of the forced resettlements of enemies of the people on development outcomes across localities of the ex-Soviet Union 6 / 61
  • 7. Related papers (Forced) migration has long-run effects as migrants take their human capital with them Hornung (2014) shows that in the late 17th century Prussia, firms in areas receiving skilled Huguenots from France experienced increased productivity. Farmers resettled by policy experiment in Indonesia transfer their human capital and skills (Bazzi et al. 2016). Easterly and Levin (2016) also suggest the effect of Europeans colonizers is mostly from the human capital they brought with them. State sponsored settlements in Brazil around 1900 have higher levels of schooling and income per capita today (Ferraz et al. 2016). Europeans settlers raised literacy rates and helped industrialization in Argentinean counties (Droller 2017). Human capital spillovers from missionary areas contributed to superior education outcomes (Valencia 2018). 7 / 61
  • 8. Related papers (Forced) migration has long-run effects as migrants take their human capital with them Cities where Gulag camps were located grew significantly faster than similar cities without camps (Mikhailova 2012). The location of a Gulag camp in a district is associated with anti-communist voting during the last Soviet 1991 referendum and 1996 presidential election (Kapelko and Markevitch 2014). Jarotschkin and Zhuravskaya (2019) explore the ethnic deportations of Stalin and the diffusion of gender norms. Becker et al. (2018) educational investment (mobiles assets) of families who have been exposed to forced migration. 8 / 61
  • 9. What we can learn from the enemies of the people Our setting is akin to a natural experiment (to gauge the effect of human capital on prosperity) with plausibly exogenous variation in human capital No self-selection to destinations of forced migrants Little evidence on endogenous location decisions on enemies (to be discussed!) Little institutional heterogeneity (camps are operated from Moscow) 9 / 61
  • 11. The Gulag: served terror and industrialisation from 1920s to 1950s 11 / 61
  • 13. ARCHIVAL DATA ON CAMPS 13 / 61
  • 14. Camp Data ⇒ Data on age, gender, education, ethnicity and type of committed crime on the camp level in 1939, 1941 and 1952 was collected from the documents at GARF.2 2Jointly with two students, Lilia Shevchenko and Eugen Potorac, we have digitised all the data. 14 / 61
  • 15. Triangulation with Memorial Data (1941 wave) ⇒ Triangulation of aggregate numbers with Getty et al. (1993): missing 15% for 1939 and 3% for 1941 and 1952 waves. 15 / 61
  • 16. Table: Descriptives Gulag Camps Mean 1939 Mean 1941 Mean 1952 Census 1939 (1) (2) (3) (4) Share Women (%) 9 7 13 56 Ethnicities (%) Russian - 66 - 58 Ukrainian - 11 - 14 Belorussians - 3 - 3 Other European - 4 - > 4 Kaukasians - 2 - > 3 Central Asian - 4 - > 4 Turkic in Russia - 2 - > 3 Other Asian - 0 - > 0 Education (%) Illiterate 8 6.6 - 34 Primary 80 83 - 57 Secondary 10 8.7 - 6.8 Tertiary 1.8 1.6 - 0.6 Age (%) <25 21 20 37 42 25-34 34 37 34 16 35-44 28 24 18 13 > 44 18 19 11 29 Share Enemies (%) 30 23 19 - Crimes Anecdotal Evidence Number of Prisoners 36580 20902 19284 Number of Camps 31 70 88 16 / 61
  • 17. Location and size of Camps Source: Self-Constructed except location which is coming from Memorial. 74 regions for the period 1939-1989. 17 / 61
  • 18. Legacy of the Camps 18 / 61
  • 19. Gulag: The legacy After Stalin’s death the Gulag slowly came to an end. But: Prisoners often continued working on the same industrial projects (Cohen 2010) Some camps emerged as industrial cities (example: Karaganda) 19 / 61
  • 20. Gulag: The legacy Why enemies remained even when freed: Stalin’s plan: No enemy should ever to be allowed to return home Strict limits on mobility: Wolf tickets Managers actively recruited ex-prisoners with the required technical skills (Barenberg 2014) Gulag towns had become a way of life 20 / 61
  • 21. Data ⇒ Link camps to Soviet Census on region level (1926, 1939, 1959, 1989, 2002, 2010). For the periods 1939, 1959, 1989, 2002 and 2010 we are able to construct 74 spatial entities, which are consistent across periods. Treatment Prisoners We are also able to look at the pre-trend between 1926 and 1939. But for that period, we are only able to construct 33 spatial entities which are stable across periods. No statistically significant differences in trends between treated and control. Pre-Trend 21 / 61
  • 22. Census 1939 - 2010 (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) Pop. (000) Women (%) < 15 (%) > 44 (%) Tertiary (%) Nr. Camps × 1959 60.630∗∗ -0.080 -0.013 -0.215 0.014 (26.036) (0.104) (0.153) (0.137) (0.057) Nr. Camps × 1989 102.911 -0.084 -0.393∗∗ 0.303 0.255 (67.735) (0.097) (0.197) (0.196) (0.224) Nr. Camps × 2002 114.603 0.022 -0.480∗∗ 0.577∗∗∗ 0.665∗∗ (80.382) (0.096) (0.196) (0.189) (0.298) Nr. Camps × 2010 106.263 0.043 -0.277 0.628∗∗∗ 0.927∗∗ (99.076) (0.101) (0.181) (0.188) (0.424) N 354 354 354 354 354 R-sq 0.25 0.57 0.83 0.81 0.88 Note: Robust standard errors are in parentheses : *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1. Year specific correlation conditional on region and time FE. Share of individuals with a tertiary education is calculated for those who are between 15 and 45. 22 / 61
  • 23. Gulag: The legacy Does the share of enemies in a camp predict development outcomes today? 23 / 61
  • 25. Data Data on enemies: Camp-level data on prisoners from the archives (discussed above) Data on night-light intensity in 2010: DMSP-OLS satellite program Data on firms in 2014: Business Environment and Enterprise Performance Survey (EBRD) ⇒ Replace with detailed Russian Firm Census (SPARK)! Data on households in 2010: Life in Transition Survey (EBRD) ⇒ Replace with detailed Russian HH Panel? 25 / 61
  • 26. ENEMIES as a natural experiment All the books and reports we have read on the Great Terror (our preferred wave of 1941) suggest that the arrests have been politically motivated. Citations Enemies might have been allocated to More productive regions Skill-intensive or capital-intensive activities Larger camps with agglomeration economies Control Variables: 1. reflecting geographic conditions such as soil quality and elevation 2. reflecting economic activity of camps and resource extraction 3. reflecting human activity such as urbanisation, population density and camp size 26 / 61
  • 27. Controls In total we collect and construct up to 40 variables capturing observables from 3 different groups (geographic conditions, economic activity, human density). Unconditional correlation between enemy share and the variables Raw Correlations : Geography: positive correlation with Longitude and Latitude Economic Activity: positive correlation with Forestry and Food Industry Agglomeration: negative correlation with Population Density and Urbanisation LASSO reduces the number of variables: Forestry, Pop. Den. and Urbanisation. LASSO 27 / 61
  • 29. Enemies vs. lights per capita 29 / 61
  • 30. Specification at the household or firm level yi = c + α Enemiesi Prisonersi + X β + ei yi is a firm or household outcome in city i (within 30km of a Gulag) Enemiesi Prisonersi is the share of enemies among prisoners in nearby Gulag(s) X vector of controls for geography, country FE, firm industry, economic activity and size of the Gulag(s) 30 / 61
  • 31. Results Nightlights per capita Value added per worker Revenues per worker Average wage .8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 Factor increase The box gives the 90% confidence interval, the spikes the 99% one. Effect of a 17pp increase in the share of enemies Lights Value added Revenues Wages 31 / 61
  • 32. Results LiTS BEEPS -.05 0 .05 .1 .15 .2 Percentage point increase in the share of tertiary educated household heads The box gives the 90% confidence interval, the spikes the 99% one. Effect of a 17pp increase in the share of enemies BEEPS LiTS 32 / 61
  • 33. The education persistence of enemies 33 / 61
  • 35. Conclusion We highlight the prevalence of enemies of the people as Gulag prisoners in one of the darkest episodes of recent history. The forced resettlement of enemies is a strong predictor of prosperity today, captured by night-lights, firm productivity, wages and education. Our paper can be seen as a natural experiment that identifies the long-run persistence of education and its effect on prosperity. 35 / 61
  • 36. Next on the Agenda Collect better data on firms and households. Data Collection in Process: Railways and Waterways in 1939 and 2010 Arms Factories since 1920 Location of Universities Science Cities (Schweiger et al. 2019) City Level Census Think harder about the mechanisms ⇒ nature versus nurture. 36 / 61
  • 38. Enemies of the people as human capital Purges in Moscow Factories, 1936-1938: Directed almost exclusively against managers and technical specialists Purges in rural districts - 1937: The prime victims were the heads of local institutions From Moscow and Leningrad telephone directories of the 1930s: 60% of senior officials of the People’s Commissariat of Heavy Industry present in 1937 were missing in 1939 3% of doctors disappeared, 30% of lawyers Source: Getty and Manning (1993) Table: Share of Enemies among reported occupations in 1939 Business & Artists Military Clerks Police Kulaks Share Enemies 68 70 78 92 63 Back 38 / 61
  • 39. Table: Types of Crimes 1939 1939 1941 1941 1952 1952 Total % Total % Total % (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) Enemies 12356 30 6101 23 5520 19 Social Order 9870 26 4759 23 Dangerous 6838 19 4633 25 Property Crimes 5476 15 3225 17 Abuse of Power 2842 9 1630 9 War Crimes 290 1 416 3 Number of Camps 30 30 70 70 88 88 Back 39 / 61
  • 40. Census 1926 - 1939 (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) Pop. Pop. Pop. Men Women Prisoners 1941 0.092 (1.632) Prisoners 1952 1.675 (1.625) Prisoners 0.542 0.260 0.281 (0.987) (0.454) (0.537) N 66 66 66 66 66 R-sq 0.17 0.18 0.17 0.15 0.19 Note: Robust standard errors are in parentheses : *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1. Correlation conditional on region and time FE. Back 40 / 61
  • 41. Census 1939 - 1959 (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) Pop. Pop. Pop. Men Women Prisoners 1941 2.051∗∗∗ (0.753) Prisoners 1952 4.650∗∗∗ (1.468) Prisoners 1.840∗∗ 0.810∗∗ 1.030∗∗∗ (0.731) (0.396) (0.358) N 148 148 148 148 148 R-sq 0.16 0.24 0.20 0.07 0.33 Note: Robust standard errors are in parentheses : *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1. Correlation conditional on region and time FE. Back 41 / 61
  • 42. Enemies as a natural experiment The main purpose of the Great Terror was declared at the very outset to be the physical annihilation of enemies rather than their use as cheap labor The political motives for the Terror took absolute priority over economic ones Back Khlevnyuk (2003) 42 / 61
  • 43. ⇒ 3000 prisoners increase population growth on average by 1pp. 43 / 61
  • 44. Table: Population Growth Years 1939 1941 1952 (1) (2) (3) A. Men Men in 1000 0.002* 0.002* 0.003*** (0.001) (0.001) (0.001) B. Women Women in 1000 0.032*** 0.033*** 0.025*** (0.014) (0.011) (0.008) C. Total Total in 1000 0.003** 0.003*** 0.003*** (0.001) (0.001) (0.001) Back 44 / 61
  • 45. Enemies’ share vs. Climate and land 45 / 61
  • 46. Enemies’ share vs. Natural Resources 46 / 61
  • 47. Enemies’ share vs. Gulag industries 47 / 61
  • 48. Enemies’ share vs. Population Back 48 / 61
  • 49. The correlates of enemies (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) Enemies 1939 (%) Enemies 1939 (%) Enemies 1941 (%) Enemies 1941 (%) Enemies 1952 (%) Enemies 1952 (%) Forestry (=1) 18.883∗∗∗ 18.883∗∗∗ 19.056∗∗∗ 21.632∗∗∗ (6.631) (6.631) (4.525) (4.282) Regional Urbanisation in 1926 -0.701∗∗∗ -0.701∗∗∗ (0.189) (0.189) Regional Pop. Den. in 1926 -0.199∗∗∗ -0.299∗∗∗ (0.058) (0.063) Constant 37.112∗∗∗ 37.112∗∗∗ 16.505∗∗∗ 13.125∗∗∗ 24.419∗∗∗ 18.936∗∗∗ (8.576) (8.576) (2.746) (2.241) (3.816) (2.964) N 28 28 70 70 86 88 R-sq 0.69 0.69 0.32 0.28 0.09 0.00 Note: Robust standard errors are in parentheses : *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1. OLS based on the variables determined as relevant by LASSO. In column 1, 3 and 5 we use absolute values of coefficient to determine the penalty, while in the other columns we use the square root. Back 49 / 61
  • 50. Table: Dependent Variable: Lights per capita (ln) Panel A: 1939 (1) (2) (3) (4) ln(Light per capita) ln(Light per capita) ln(Light per capita) ln(Light per capita) Enemies in 1939 (%) 0.043∗∗∗ 0.044∗∗∗ 0.042∗ 0.040 (0.010) (0.013) (0.024) (0.023) N 28 26 26 24 R-sq 0.38 0.41 0.44 0.40 Panel B: 1941 (1) (2) (3) (4) ln(Light per capita) ln(Light per capita) ln(Light per capita) ln(Light per capita) Enemies in 1941 (%) 0.027∗∗∗ 0.026∗∗∗ 0.020∗∗ 0.023∗∗ (0.007) (0.007) (0.010) (0.010) N 70 68 68 64 R-sq 0.14 0.15 0.17 0.21 Panel C: 1952 (1) (2) (3) (4) ln(Light per capita) ln(Light per capita) ln(Light per capita) ln(Light per capita) Enemies in 1952 (%) 0.026∗∗∗ 0.023∗∗∗ 0.021∗∗∗ 0.021∗∗∗ (0.006) (0.007) (0.006) (0.006) N 88 85 85 76 R-sq 0.24 0.29 0.44 0.35 Robust standard errors in parenthesis, and * stands for statistical significance at the 10% level, ** at the 5% level and *** at the 1% percent level. In column 1 the results of the first row of Table 29 are shown. In column 2 we account for country FE and in column 3 we additionally account for forestry, population density and urbanisation. In column 4 we just keep Russia. 50 / 61
  • 51. Table: Dependent Variable: Lights per capita (ln) Panel A: Share of Enemies of the People All Gulags Gulags (>2 years) (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) Enemies (%) 1.559∗∗∗ 0.819∗∗ 0.925∗∗ 1.252∗∗ 0.728∗ 0.925∗ (0.470) (0.402) (0.411) (0.501) (0.437) (0.506) N 423 423 386 238 238 217 R-sq 0.34 0.44 0.41 0.31 0.43 0.40 Panel B: Dummy Variable All Gulags Gulags (>2 years) (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) Enemies (=1) 0.296∗ 0.141 0.163 0.090 0.030 0.079 (0.178) (0.162) (0.171) (0.210) (0.189) (0.199) N 423 423 386 238 238 217 R-sq 0.33 0.43 0.41 0.29 0.42 0.39 Total prisoners Y Y Y Y Y Y Country FE Y Y Y Y Y Y Geography N Y Y N Y Y Gulag activity N Y Y N Y Y Conley standard errors in parenthesis, and * stands for statistical significance at the 10% level, ** at the 5% level and *** at the 1% percent level. In column 1-3 we use the full sample of Gulags. In column 4-6 we use only Gulags which remained active for more than 2 years. In column 1 and 4 we present the results with country fixed effects as well as the the total number of prisoners. In column 2 and 5 we control for additional geographical variables as well as dummies indicating the main economic activities of Gulags. In column 3 and 6 we focus only on Russia, using the full-control specification of column 2 and 5. Back 51 / 61
  • 52. Table: Dependent Variable: Revenues per employee (ln) Panel A: Share of Enemies of the People All Gulags Gulags (>2 years) (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) Enemies (%) 0.990∗∗ 1.373∗∗∗ 1.864∗∗∗ 1.117∗∗ 1.824∗∗∗ 2.189∗∗∗ (0.471) (0.407) (0.465) (0.486) (0.419) (0.487) N 2645 2645 1735 2323 2323 1614 R-sq 0.66 0.67 0.16 0.62 0.62 0.16 Panel B: Dummy Variable All Gulags Gulags (>2 years) (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) Enemies (=1) 0.355∗∗∗ 0.308∗∗∗ 0.305∗∗∗ 0.407∗∗∗ 0.357∗∗∗ 0.316∗∗∗ (0.098) (0.069) (0.076) (0.103) (0.066) (0.080) N 2645 2645 1735 2323 2323 1614 R-sq 0.67 0.67 0.16 0.62 0.63 0.16 Total prisoners Y Y Y Y Y Y Country FE Y Y Y Y Y Y Industry FE Y Y Y Y Y Y Geography N Y Y N Y Y Gulag activity N Y Y N Y Y Standard errors in parenthesis clustered by geographic exposure to enemies, and * stands for statistical significance at the 10% level, ** at the 5% level and *** at the 1% percent level. In column 1-3 we use the full sample of Gulags. In column 4-6 we use only Gulags which remained active for more than 2 years. In column 1 and 4 we present the results with country and industry fixed effects as well as the the number of prisoners (ln). In column 2 and 5 we control for additional geographical variables as well as dummies indicating the main economic activities of Gulags. In column 3 and 6 we focus only on Russia, using the full-control specification of column 2 and 5. Back 52 / 61
  • 53. Table: Dependent Variable: Value Added per employee (ln) Panel A: Share of Enemies of the People All Gulags Gulags (>2 years) (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) Enemies (%) 0.598 1.176∗∗ 1.633∗∗∗ 0.656 1.560∗∗∗ 1.985∗∗∗ (0.444) (0.472) (0.542) (0.460) (0.513) (0.557) N 1848 1848 1337 1657 1657 1255 R-sq 0.67 0.67 0.25 0.61 0.62 0.26 Panel B: Dummy Variable All Gulags Gulags (>2 years) (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) Enemies (=1) 0.296∗∗∗ 0.222∗∗ 0.240∗∗ 0.330∗∗∗ 0.254∗∗∗ 0.249∗∗ (0.110) (0.096) (0.100) (0.118) (0.098) (0.104) N 1848 1848 1337 1657 1657 1255 R-sq 0.67 0.67 0.25 0.62 0.62 0.25 Total prisoners Y Y Y Y Y Y Country FE Y Y Y Y Y Y Industry FE Y Y Y Y Y Y Geography N Y Y N Y Y Gulag activity N Y Y N Y Y Standard errors in parenthesis clustered by geographic exposure to enemies, and * stands for statistical significance at the 10% level, ** at the 5% level and *** at the 1% percent level. In column 1-3 we use the full sample of Gulags. In column 4-6 we use only Gulags which remained active for more than 2 years. In column 1 and 4 we present the results with country and industry fixed effects as well as the the number of prisoners (ln). In column 2 and 5 we control for additional geographical variables as well as dummies indicating the main economic activities of Gulags. In column 3 and 6 we focus only on Russia, using the full-control specification of column 2 and 5. Back 53 / 61
  • 54. Table: Dependent Variable: Average wages (ln) Panel A: Share of Enemies of the People All Gulags Gulags (>2 years) (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) Enemies (%) 0.236 0.762∗ 0.960∗ 0.439 0.600 0.699 (0.480) (0.422) (0.522) (0.621) (0.452) (0.574) N 2588 2588 1531 1723 1723 1141 R-sq 0.74 0.75 0.09 0.64 0.65 0.10 Panel B: Dummy Variable All Gulags Gulags (>2 years) (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) Enemies (=1) 0.233∗ 0.087 0.150 0.270∗∗ 0.106 0.103 (0.120) (0.090) (0.107) (0.137) (0.099) (0.126) N 2588 2588 1531 1723 1723 1141 R-sq 0.74 0.75 0.09 0.64 0.65 0.10 Total prisoners Y Y Y Y Y Y Country FE Y Y Y Y Y Y Industry FE Y Y Y Y Y Y Geography N Y Y N Y Y Gulag activity N Y Y N Y Y Standard errors clustered by geographic exposure to enemies, and * stands for statistical significance at the 10% level, ** at the 5% level and *** at the 1% percent level. In column 1-3 we use the full sample of Gulags. In column 4-6 we use only Gulags active for more than 2 years. In column 1 and 4 we present the results with country and industry fixed effects as well as the the number of prisoners (ln)]. In column 2 and 5 we control for additional geographical variables as well as dummies indicating the main economic activities of Gulags. In column 3 and 6 we focus only on Russia, using the full-control specification. Back 54 / 61
  • 55. Table: Dependent Variable: Years of Education Panel A: Share of Enemies of the People All Gulags Gulags (>2 years) (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) Enemies (%) 0.931 1.595∗ 3.466∗∗∗ 1.108 1.676 3.986∗∗∗ (0.781) (0.933) (1.030) (0.790) (1.139) (1.030) N 985 985 549 856 856 520 R-sq 0.13 0.15 0.09 0.11 0.12 0.10 Panel B: Dummy Variable All Gulags Gulags (>2 years) (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) Enemies (=1) 0.572∗∗∗ 0.597∗∗∗ 0.728∗∗∗ 0.635∗∗∗ 0.644∗∗∗ 0.775∗∗∗ (0.199) (0.173) (0.180) (0.213) (0.195) (0.183) N 985 985 549 856 856 520 R-sq 0.14 0.15 0.09 0.12 0.13 0.10 Total prisoners Y Y Y Y Y Y Country FE Y Y Y Y Y Y Industry FE Y Y Y Y Y Y Geography N Y Y N Y Y Gulag activity N Y Y N Y Y Standard errors in parenthesis clustered by geographic exposure to enemies, and * stands for statistical significance at the 10% level, ** at the 5% level and *** at the 1% percent level. In column 1-3 we use the full sample of Gulags. In column 4-6 we use only Gulags which remained active for more than 2 years. In column 1 and 4 we present the results with country and industry fixed effects as well as the the number of prisoners (ln). In column 2 and 5 we control for additional geographical variables as well as dummies indicating the main economic activities of Gulags. In column 3 and 6 we focus only on Russia, using the full-control specification of column 2 and 5. Back 55 / 61
  • 56. Table: Dependent Variable: > 13 Years of Education Dummy Panel A: Share of Enemies of the People All Gulags Gulags (>2 years) (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) Enemies (%) 0.321 0.623∗∗∗ 0.854∗∗ 0.417∗ 0.623∗∗ 1.012∗∗∗ (0.211) (0.202) (0.342) (0.229) (0.270) (0.367) N 985 985 549 856 856 520 R-sq 0.15 0.17 0.11 0.10 0.13 0.10 Panel B: Dummy Variable All Gulags Gulags (>2 years) (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) Enemies (=1) 0.087 0.115∗∗∗ 0.145∗∗∗ 0.116∗∗ 0.126∗∗∗ 0.151∗∗∗ (0.055) (0.044) (0.055) (0.059) (0.048) (0.057) N 985 985 549 856 856 520 R-sq 0.15 0.17 0.10 0.11 0.13 0.09 Total prisoners Y Y Y Y Y Y Country FE Y Y Y Y Y Y Industry FE Y Y Y Y Y Y Geography N Y Y N Y Y Gulag activity N Y Y N Y Y Standard errors in parenthesis clustered by geographic exposure to enemies, and * stands for statistical significance at the 10% level, ** at the 5% level and *** at the 1% percent level. In column 1-3 we use the full sample of Gulags. In column 4-6 we use only Gulags which remained active for more than 2 years. In column 1 and 4 we present the results with country and industry fixed effects as well as the the number of prisoners (ln). In column 2 and 5 we control for additional geographical variables as well as dummies indicating the main economic activities of Gulags. In column 3 and 6 we focus only on Russia, using the full-control specification of column 2 and 5. Back 56 / 61
  • 57. Table: Dependent Variable: Tertiary Education (Dummy=1) Panel A: Share of Enemies of the People All Gulags Gulags (>2 years) (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) Enemies (%) 0.585∗ 0.350 0.798∗∗ 0.778∗ 0.852∗∗ 1.800∗∗∗ (0.337) (0.252) (0.313) (0.404) (0.413) (0.340) N 822 822 224 573 573 198 R-sq 0.35 0.39 0.52 0.40 0.44 0.55 Panel B: Dummy Variable All Gulags Gulags (>2 years) (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) Enemies (=1) 0.182∗∗∗ 0.131∗∗ 0.079 0.201∗∗∗ 0.142∗∗ 0.102 (0.061) (0.059) (0.081) (0.060) (0.070) (0.093) N 822 822 224 573 573 198 R-sq 0.36 0.39 0.51 0.40 0.44 0.52 Total prisoners Y Y Y Y Y Y Country FE Y Y Y Y Y Y Industry FE Y Y Y Y Y Y Geography N Y Y N Y Y Gulag activity N Y Y N Y Y Standard errors in parenthesis clustered by geographic exposure to enemies, and * stands for statistical significance at the 10% level, ** at the 5% level and *** at the 1% percent level. In column 1-3 we use the full sample of Gulags. In column 4-6 we use only Gulags which remained active for more than 2 years. In column 1 and 4 we present the results with country fixed and occupation fixed effects, gender, age and age squared of the household head as well as the the number of prisoners (ln). In column 2 and 5 we control for additional geographical variables as well as dummies indicating the main economic activities of Gulags. In column 3 and 6 we focus only on Russia, using the full-control specification of column 2 and 5. Back 57 / 61
  • 58. Table: The education persistence of enemies (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) Mother’s education Mother’s education Mother’s education Mother’s education Mother’s education Mother’s education Enemy grandparents 0.580∗∗∗ 0.475∗∗∗ 0.398∗∗∗ (0.086) (0.075) (0.076) Enemy relatives 0.233∗∗∗ 0.239∗∗∗ 0.183∗∗∗ (0.073) (0.062) (0.065) Income 0.160∗∗∗ 0.162∗∗∗ (0.019) (0.019) Female -0.068∗∗∗ -0.067∗∗ -0.071∗∗∗ -0.069∗∗∗ (0.026) (0.026) (0.026) (0.026) Age -0.038∗∗∗ -0.036∗∗∗ -0.038∗∗∗ -0.036∗∗∗ (0.001) (0.001) (0.001) (0.001) N 18782 18782 15536 18782 18782 15536 R-sq 0.05 0.23 0.33 0.04 0.22 0.33 Notes: Robust standard errors in parenthesis with * standing for statistical significance at the 10% level, ** at the 5% level and *** at the 1% percent level. Data is from LiTS 3, ex-Soviet countries only. Country fixed effects and controls for latitude and longitude included in all regressions. Observations weighted by survey sampling weights. 58 / 61
  • 59. Table: The education persistence of enemies (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) Father’s education Father’s education Father’s education Father’s education Father’s education Father’s education Enemy grandparents 0.483∗∗∗ 0.401∗∗∗ 0.291∗∗∗ (0.090) (0.080) (0.080) Enemy relatives 0.211∗∗∗ 0.212∗∗∗ 0.213∗∗∗ (0.074) (0.066) (0.070) Income 0.166∗∗∗ 0.166∗∗∗ (0.021) (0.021) Female -0.062∗∗ -0.063∗∗ -0.065∗∗ -0.064∗∗ (0.027) (0.028) (0.027) (0.028) Age -0.032∗∗∗ -0.029∗∗∗ -0.032∗∗∗ -0.029∗∗∗ (0.001) (0.001) (0.001) (0.001) N 18244 18244 15064 18244 18244 15064 R-sq 0.04 0.17 0.27 0.04 0.17 0.27 Notes: Robust standard errors in parenthesis with * standing for statistical significance at the 10% level, ** at the 5% level and *** at the 1% percent level. Data is from LiTS 3, ex-Soviet countries only. Country fixed effects and controls for latitude and longitude included in all regressions. Observations weighted by survey sampling weights. 59 / 61
  • 60. Table: The education persistence of enemies (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) Education Education Education Education Education Education Enemy grandparents 0.337∗∗∗ 0.302∗∗∗ 0.219∗∗∗ (0.075) (0.075) (0.077) Enemy relatives 0.285∗∗∗ 0.276∗∗∗ 0.219∗∗∗ (0.068) (0.066) (0.065) Income 0.218∗∗∗ 0.217∗∗∗ (0.019) (0.019) Female -0.007 0.017 -0.008 0.017 (0.025) (0.026) (0.025) (0.026) Age -0.010∗∗∗ -0.007∗∗∗ -0.010∗∗∗ -0.007∗∗∗ (0.001) (0.001) (0.001) (0.001) N 19594 19594 16076 19594 19594 16076 R-sq 0.04 0.06 0.16 0.04 0.06 0.16 Notes: Robust standard errors in parenthesis with * standing for statistical significance at the 10% level, ** at the 5% level and *** at the 1% percent level. Data is from LiTS 3, ex-Soviet countries only. Country fixed effects and controls for latitude and longitude included in all regressions. Observations weighted by survey sampling weights. 60 / 61
  • 61. Table: The income effect of enemies (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) Income Income Income Income Income Income Enemy grandparents 0.168∗∗∗ 0.128∗∗∗ 0.086∗∗ (0.044) (0.043) (0.043) Enemy relatives 0.142∗∗∗ 0.136∗∗∗ 0.095∗∗ (0.040) (0.038) (0.037) Female -0.061∗∗∗ -0.064∗∗∗ -0.061∗∗∗ -0.064∗∗∗ (0.018) (0.018) (0.018) (0.018) Age -0.010∗∗∗ -0.009∗∗∗ -0.010∗∗∗ -0.009∗∗∗ (0.001) (0.001) (0.001) (0.001) Education 0.129∗∗∗ 0.129∗∗∗ (0.006) (0.006) N 16076 16076 16076 16076 16076 16076 R-sq 0.89 0.89 0.90 0.89 0.89 0.90 Notes: Robust standard errors in parenthesis with * standing for statistical significance at the 10% level, ** at the 5% level and *** at the 1% percent level. Data is from LiTS 3, ex-Soviet countries only. Country fixed effects and controls for latitude and longitude included in all regressions. Observations weighted by survey sampling weights. 61 / 61