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ENERGY SANCTIONS
WHAT ELSE CAN BE DONE?
Chloé Le Coq
Univ. Paris-Panthéon-Assas & SITE
SITE DEVELOPMENT DAY CONFERENCE 2023
HOW TO UNDERMINE THE RUSSIAN WAR EFFORT AND SUPPORT UKRAINE
December 05, 2023
Current energy sanctions against Russia
vEnergy commodities
• crude oil (from December 2022) and refined petroleum products (from February 2023),
with limited exceptions
• coal and other solid fossil fuels
vSanctioned energy-related products
• specific goods and technology needed for oil refining
• energy industry equipment, technology, and services
=> What else can be done?
=> Is it worth it?
Putting sanctions on Russian gas?
Russian Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) and EU
v 52% of Russian LNG exports bought by EU (January-July 2023)
=> +40% jump compared to 2021
=> Spain and Belgium: 2nd and 3rd biggest importers of Russian LNG (1st: China)
v March 2023: EU called on member states and private companies to stop buying from Russia
=> Should the EU ban the trade of Russian LNG?
=> Which impact on Russian government revenues?
Oil vs. Gas export revenues, Jan-Nov 2023
93,3
15,4 20,8
288,0
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Oil LNG Pipeline gas Planned budget
revenues, 2023
Bln EUR
Source: data from CREA (Centre for Research on
Energy and Clean Air) 2023,, own graph
Jan-July 2023:
EU’s LNG purchases
worth €5.29 billion
(Globalwitness.org)
Russia’s LNG Diplomacy
v LNG transshipments in Europe: 20% of Russian LNG imports via EU ports
=> Banned in the UK and Netherlands, allowed in France, Belgium, and Spain
=> Some long-term contracts running until 2039…
=> Main country recipients: China, Japan, and Bangladesh
=> Sanctions are not only about reducing Russian government revenues
but also limiting Russia’s influence on the rest of the world
Putting sanctions on Russian nuclear
energy-related products?
The Russian Dominance on the front-end nuclear cycle
Russia has 50% of global
enrichment capacity
(2022)
Russia supplied 12% of U.S.
uranium and 17% of Europe's. Countries with Russian-built
VVER reactors rely
on Russian fuel
e.g. , Hungary, Slovakia,
Bulgaria, Finland , and the
Czech Republic
Nuclear exports vs. Budget revenues
93,3
15,4 20,8
2,1
Oil LNG Pipeline gas Nuclear
exports, 2022
Planned
budget
revenues, 2023
288.0
Source: data from CREA (Centre for Research on
Energy and Clean Air) 2023,
Bln, EUR
Russia’s Nuclear Energy Diplomacy
v Rosatom -Russia’s state nuclear corporation
-involved in 73 different projects in 29 countries
-building 33 new reactors in 10 countries
Russian nuclear engagements around the world.
Source: Szulecki & Overlan, 2023
Country shade: levels of nuclear cooperation with Russia
73 different projects in 29 countries
Russia’s Nuclear Energy Diplomacy
vAttractive Financing Schemes for Nuclear Power Plant (NPP)
- Russian loan covers 80% of two units at Hungary's Paks NPP with a 16-year term
(i.e., €10 billion)
- Russian loan covers 90% of the Rooppur project's total cost in Bangladesh, with a
20-year term (i.e., $11.4 billion)
=> Lock-in technology (Stranded assets)
Post-Ukraine invasion, seven of 14 countries with high or medium nuclear cooperation (see
classification by Szulecki & Overlan, 2023) did not back UN Resolution ES 11/1 against Russian
aggression.
=> Not only about reducing Russian government revenues
but Russia’s influence on the rest of the world
Energy sanctions
vNot just about reducing Russian government revenues but also Russia’s influence
vNext steps?
Develop credible and affordable alternatives to Russian energy-related products to
the rest of the world…
Thank you
Chloé Le Coq
http://chloelecoq.org

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Energy sanctions - What else can be done?

  • 1. ENERGY SANCTIONS WHAT ELSE CAN BE DONE? Chloé Le Coq Univ. Paris-Panthéon-Assas & SITE SITE DEVELOPMENT DAY CONFERENCE 2023 HOW TO UNDERMINE THE RUSSIAN WAR EFFORT AND SUPPORT UKRAINE December 05, 2023
  • 2. Current energy sanctions against Russia vEnergy commodities • crude oil (from December 2022) and refined petroleum products (from February 2023), with limited exceptions • coal and other solid fossil fuels vSanctioned energy-related products • specific goods and technology needed for oil refining • energy industry equipment, technology, and services => What else can be done? => Is it worth it?
  • 3. Putting sanctions on Russian gas?
  • 4. Russian Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) and EU v 52% of Russian LNG exports bought by EU (January-July 2023) => +40% jump compared to 2021 => Spain and Belgium: 2nd and 3rd biggest importers of Russian LNG (1st: China) v March 2023: EU called on member states and private companies to stop buying from Russia => Should the EU ban the trade of Russian LNG? => Which impact on Russian government revenues?
  • 5. Oil vs. Gas export revenues, Jan-Nov 2023 93,3 15,4 20,8 288,0 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 Oil LNG Pipeline gas Planned budget revenues, 2023 Bln EUR Source: data from CREA (Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air) 2023,, own graph Jan-July 2023: EU’s LNG purchases worth €5.29 billion (Globalwitness.org)
  • 6. Russia’s LNG Diplomacy v LNG transshipments in Europe: 20% of Russian LNG imports via EU ports => Banned in the UK and Netherlands, allowed in France, Belgium, and Spain => Some long-term contracts running until 2039… => Main country recipients: China, Japan, and Bangladesh => Sanctions are not only about reducing Russian government revenues but also limiting Russia’s influence on the rest of the world
  • 7. Putting sanctions on Russian nuclear energy-related products?
  • 8. The Russian Dominance on the front-end nuclear cycle Russia has 50% of global enrichment capacity (2022) Russia supplied 12% of U.S. uranium and 17% of Europe's. Countries with Russian-built VVER reactors rely on Russian fuel e.g. , Hungary, Slovakia, Bulgaria, Finland , and the Czech Republic
  • 9. Nuclear exports vs. Budget revenues 93,3 15,4 20,8 2,1 Oil LNG Pipeline gas Nuclear exports, 2022 Planned budget revenues, 2023 288.0 Source: data from CREA (Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air) 2023, Bln, EUR
  • 10. Russia’s Nuclear Energy Diplomacy v Rosatom -Russia’s state nuclear corporation -involved in 73 different projects in 29 countries -building 33 new reactors in 10 countries
  • 11. Russian nuclear engagements around the world. Source: Szulecki & Overlan, 2023 Country shade: levels of nuclear cooperation with Russia 73 different projects in 29 countries
  • 12. Russia’s Nuclear Energy Diplomacy vAttractive Financing Schemes for Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) - Russian loan covers 80% of two units at Hungary's Paks NPP with a 16-year term (i.e., €10 billion) - Russian loan covers 90% of the Rooppur project's total cost in Bangladesh, with a 20-year term (i.e., $11.4 billion) => Lock-in technology (Stranded assets) Post-Ukraine invasion, seven of 14 countries with high or medium nuclear cooperation (see classification by Szulecki & Overlan, 2023) did not back UN Resolution ES 11/1 against Russian aggression. => Not only about reducing Russian government revenues but Russia’s influence on the rest of the world
  • 13. Energy sanctions vNot just about reducing Russian government revenues but also Russia’s influence vNext steps? Develop credible and affordable alternatives to Russian energy-related products to the rest of the world…
  • 14. Thank you Chloé Le Coq http://chloelecoq.org