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BANK DEGROOF

Presentation for VIVIUM Assurances
Bruxelles Kinepolis
14th October 2010

Mr. Thomas-Karl Palmblad
14th October 2010
Agenda
1. Introduction of Bank Degroof
2. Introduction to Degroof’s Global Investment approach for VIVIUM
3. Introduction of Bank Degroof’s Behavioral Value strategy
4. Q & A

2

DEGROOF FUND MANAGEMENT COMPANY
Better Performance Through Active Risk Control
Bank Degroof

 Independent merchant Bank, founded in 1871, owned by its
management
 24.1 bn EUR in assets under management
 Asset management produces 80% of income
 Headcount 1000
 Offices in Belgium (HQ), Luxembourg, Switzerland, France,
Spain and Bahamas

3

DEGROOF FUND MANAGEMENT COMPANY
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MANAGEMENT AND STAFF HAVE A STAKE IN THE GROUP’S SUCCESS

1. Senior management owns a majority stake
in the bank. This gives them, in a long-term
approach, a vital interest in the bank's
performance and reputation
Management & staff include (1)
controlling stake held by Guimard Finance
and the Philippson, Siaens, Schockert,
Haegelsteen and Fontaine families, (2)
active partners and
(3) other members of management and staff

Management
and staff

Financial
2. Financial partners include Compagnie du
Bois Sauvage, Parmafin (Theo Maes
partners and others

63.85%

family), Luc Waucquez family, Levimmo
and others. Own shares represent 1.19 %

4

DEGROOF FUND MANAGEMENT COMPANY
Better Performance Through Active Risk Control

36.15%
BANK DEGROOF’S REPUTATION IS BUILT ON THE EXPERTISE
MADE AVAILABLE TO ITS CLIENTS

Private clients

Institutional clients

Private wealth management

• Bank Degroof Brussel’s Institutional Portfolio
Management department, Degroof Fund Managament
Company and Degroof Gestion Institutionnelle (DGI)
are the Degroof group's competence centres for
institutional asset management

• Protect and grow
• Full support at all stages of wealth creation
• EUR 21.0 billion in assets under
management

• Management of EUR 15.9 billion in UCIs
• Management of EUR 2.9 billion of institutional
portfolios

Financial markets

• Specialists in legal, fiscal and inheritance
structuring

• Long-established financial market player
• Advice and sales to institutional clients in equities,
bonds, undertakings for collective investment, listed
derivatives and treasury management
• A leading liquidity provider on Euronext Brussels

Credits & Structuring

UCI administration

Legal and patrimonial structuring

• Credit facilities as part of overall asset
management relationships

5

DEGROOF FUND MANAGEMENT COMPANY
Better Performance Through Active Risk Control

Public and private
companies and their
shareholders
Corporate Finance
• M&A expertise, recognized by various
rankings
• Dominant position in the issue of fairness
opinions
• One of the main financial advisers to the
Belgian state and regional governments for
privatisations and other major financial
operations
• Active role in private and public placements
for private companies and companies listed
on Euronext Brussels

Credits & Structuring
• Structured and tailor-made credits
OUR REPUTATION AND
PROFESSIONAL APPROACH
ENABLE US TO ATTRACT AND
RETAIN HIGHLY COMPETENT
PROFESSIONALS

• Our culture is that of top grade professionals,
working together in a climate of mutual trust and
respect to produce optimal, lasting solutions for
our clients
• This culture provides a stability stimulating
creative innovation
• We favour a long-term approach, with close
attention to financial fundamentals
• For example, the average length of service of
senior staff is 11.2 years

6

DEGROOF FUND MANAGEMENT COMPANY
Better Performance Through Active Risk Control
Bank Degroof = excellent performance thanks to

• a clear and contrarian investment philosophy,
• inspired by academic research and, that is translated
• into disciplined investment processes by Teams
• through a "fundamental-quantitative” approach
• and with tight risk control

7

DEGROOF FUND MANAGEMENT COMPANY
Better Performance Through Active Risk Control
VIVIUM, the switch to Degroof Active Management Styles

VIVIUM Managed Funds
4 Compartments

Degroof Active Funds
Selection of 4 Management Styles
Low

 Stability Fund
 Balanced Fund

Global Medium

 Dynamic Fund

Global High

 Aggressive Fund

8

Global Low

Equities Europe
Behavioral Value

DEGROOF FUND MANAGEMENT COMPANY
Better Performance Through Active Risk Control

Active
Risk
Level

High
VIVIUM, the switch to Degroof Active Managed Investment Processes

VIVIUM Managed Funds
4 Compartments

12 months return as at
30th September 2010

 Stability Fund

Return 1 Year : + 6.61%

 Balanced Fund

Return 1 Year : + 8.51%

 Dynamic Fund

Return 1 Year : + 9.89%

 Aggressive Fund

Low:
20%

Return 1 Year : + 5.31%

Equity
Level

High:
100%

9

DEGROOF FUND MANAGEMENT COMPANY
Better Performance Through Active Risk Control
VIVIUM, the switch to Degroof Active Managed Investment Processes

VIVIUM Managed Funds
4 Compartments

Low:
20%

 Stability Fund

Tracking Error 1.92% Vol. 5.29%

 Balanced Fund

Tracking Error 2.92% Vol. 9.8%

 Dynamic Fund

Tracking Error 6.28% Vol. 15.5%

 Aggressive Fund

Tracking Error 5% Vol. 19.7%

Equity
Level

High:
100%

10

DEGROOF FUND MANAGEMENT COMPANY
Better Performance Through Active Risk Control
ASSET
ASSET ALLOC
ALLOCATION

INTRODUCTION

•

DIVERSIFICATION

PERFORMANCE

CONCLUSION

3 RISK PROFILES
ASSETS UNDER MANAGEMENT (mio €)

GLOBAL LOW

2,500
1,918

2,000

GLOBAL MEDIUM

1,500

 GLOBAL HIGH

1,000
580
EQUITY RATIO
DEGROOF
GLOBAL ISIS
LOW

-

20%

ISIS LOW

DEGROOF
GLOBAL ISIS
MEDIUM

48%

DEGROOF
GLOBAL ISIS
HIGH

75%

0%

11

20%

347

500

40%

60%

80%

DEGROOF FUND MANAGEMENT COMPANY
Better Performance Through Active Risk Control

100%

ISIS MEDIUM

ISIS HIGH
INTRODUCTION

•

ASSET
ALLOCATION

DIVERSIFICATION

PERFORMANCE

CONCLUSION

MEDIUM = Flagship Management of Banque Degroof, 1.92 billion euros
reflects the allocation strategy of medium risk

•

OBJECTIVE

OPTIMIZE THE RETURN

1. Allocation
between
assets classes

2. Diversification
within every
asset class

12

DEGROOF FUND MANAGEMENT COMPANY
Better Performance Through Active Risk Control

80% OF THE RETURN

20% OF THE RETURN
INTRODUCTION

Offices
Commercial
Residential

ASSET
ALLOCATION

REAL ESTATE

CONVERTIBLE
BONDS

ALTERNATIVE

Flex Collar
Hedge Funds
Timber

13

DEGROOF FUND MANAGEMENT COMPANY
Better Performance Through Active Risk Control

DIVERSIFICATION

PERFORMANCE

CONCLUSION

Govies / Agencies
Securitized
Corporates
Inflation linked

BONDS

EQUITIES

SHORT TERM

Currencies
Deposits
Commercial papers

Large caps
Small caps
Private Equity
INTRODUCTION

1.

ASSET
ALLOCATION

DIVERSIFICATION

PERFORMANCE

CONCLUSION

ALLOCATION : MEDIUM
(July 2010)

Low
High

14

DEGROOF FUND MANAGEMENT COMPANY
Better Performance Through Active Risk Control
ASSET
ALLOCATION

INTRODUCTION

DIVERSIFICATION

PERFORMANCE

CONCLUSION

2. BENCHMARK
ISIS MEDIUM

60%

Max

58%

50%

Bench

48%

40%

Min
38%

38%

30%

28%

15

DEGROOF FUND MANAGEMENT COMPANY
Better Performance Through Active Risk Control

R
ea

10%

8%
4%
0%

h

ds

2%
0%

C
as

le

st
at

at
iv

Al
te

rn

ds
Bo
n
v

C
on

Eq
u

iti
e

s

0%

e

6%
3%
0%

e

10%

18%

Bo
n

21%
16%
11%

20%

Low
High
INTRODUCTION

ASSET
ALLOCATION

DIVERSIFICATION

PERFORMANCE

3. ALLOCATION TOOLS (ASSETS CLASSES)
INVESTMENT COMMITTEE
MACRO-ECONOMY

-Growth: Europe, USA, Japan, Emerging countries

-Inflation :

CPI, PPI
Monetary aggegates
Commodities prices
World trade volume
Labor cost

-Short term interest
-Long term interest
-Exchange rates
-Equity markets  valorisations
16

DEGROOF FUND MANAGEMENT COMPANY
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Leading indicators
Consummer confidence
Labour market
New orders
Inventories
Profitability
Real estate activity
Credits

CONCLUSION
INTRODUCTION

ASSET
ALLOCATION

PERFORMANCE

DIVERSIFICATION

CONCLUSION

3. ALLOCATION TOOLS (ASSETS CLASSES)

INVESTMENT COMMITTEE
FINANCIAL RATIOS

FIXED INCOME COMMITTEE
BONDS ALLOCATION
- Duration/Positioning

- Price/Earnings
- Earnings revision

- Govies-Inflation linked: Expected inflation

QUANTITATIVE TOOLS

- Credit: Corporate - govies:

- Allocation Equity-Bonds: Risk premium

- Sectors

- Allocation Blue-Small:

17

Real interest rate
Yield curve

- Countries

Relative P/E

DEGROOF FUND MANAGEMENT COMPANY
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Rating/risk
INTRODUCTION

ASSET
ALLOCATION

DIVERSIFICATION

PERFORMANCE

4. STRATEGY
A. GLOBAL ALLOCATION

 Slightly overweighted in equity
 Underweighted in real estate

(%)

 Lower bonds duration
50
40
30
20
10
0
e
s
y
ve
ds
tat
uit
nd
ati
s
q
o
on
E
B
rn
B
le
lte
nv
ea
A
R
Co
Isis Medium
18

DEGROOF FUND MANAGEMENT COMPANY
Better Performance Through Active Risk Control

Benchmark

sh
Ca

CONCLUSION
INTRODUCTION

ASSET
ALLOCATION

DIVERSIFICATION

PERFORMANCE

4. STRATEGY
B. EQUITY ALLOCATION

 Underweighted in Japan
25

(%)

20
15
10
5
0

a
ts
ro
uro
ri c
eu
mk
e
E
g
ex
Am
e
Em
h
p
rt
&
uro
No
E
sia
A
Isis Medium

19

DEGROOF FUND MANAGEMENT COMPANY
Better Performance Through Active Risk Control

Benchmark

pa
Ja

n

CONCLUSION
INTRODUCTION

ASSET
ALLOCATION

DIVERSIFICATION

PERFORMANCE

4. STRATEGY
C. BOND ALLOCATION

(%)

Overweighted in corporate & securitized bonds

80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0

AAA

ISIS Medium

20

AA

Benchmark

DEGROOF FUND MANAGEMENT COMPANY
Better Performance Through Active Risk Control

A

BBB

NR

CONCLUSION
INTRODUCTION

ASSET
ALLOCATION

DIVERSIFICATION

5. ASSET ALLOCATION: CONCLUSIONS

Based on long term views

21

DEGROOF FUND MANAGEMENT COMPANY
Better Performance Through Active Risk Control

PERFORMANCE

CONCLUSION
INTRODUCTION

ASSET
ALLOCATION

1. NON EQUITY CLASSES

- BONDS
- FLEXIBLE COLLAR
- CONVERTIBLE
BONDS
- HEDGE FUNDS
- REAL ESTATE
- COMMODITIES
- OTHERS: TIMBER

22

DEGROOF FUND MANAGEMENT COMPANY
Better Performance Through Active Risk Control

DIVERSIFICATION

PERFORMANCE

2. EQUITY CLASSES

- STYLES:
INDEXED
VALUE
GROWTH
…
- PRIVATE EQUITY

CONCLUSION
INTRODUCTION

ASSET
ALLOCATION

DIVERSIFICATION

PERFORMANCE

CONCLUSION

1. NON EQUITY CLASSES
MEDIUM
Real properties
4%
Conv bonds
3%
Equity
51%

Non equity
49%

Bonds
25%

Flex collar
14%

Hedge funds
1%
Timber
Cash
1%
Cash
2%

2%

Bonds 16.5% Govies,
 3.1% Inflation linked
 2.4% Corporates
3.7% Securitized

23

DEGROOF FUND MANAGEMENT COMPANY
Better Performance Through Active Risk Control
INTRODUCTION

ASSET
ALLOCATION

DIVERSIFICATION

PERFORMANCE

CONCLUSION

2. EQUITY CLASSES
MEDIUM

Non equity
49%

Equity
51%

Index
31%

value
6%

third party
12%
private equity
1%

24

DEGROOF FUND MANAGEMENT COMPANY
Better Performance Through Active Risk Control
INTRODUCTION

ASSET
ALLOCATION

DIVERSIFICATION

PERFORMANCE

DIVERSIFICATION: CONCLUSIONS

Based on convictions, on medium term views

25

DEGROOF FUND MANAGEMENT COMPANY
Better Performance Through Active Risk Control

CONCLUSION
INTRODUCTION
1

ASSET
ALLOCATION

RISK CONTROL

MEDIUM

Risk
Control

26

DEGROOF FUND MANAGEMENT COMPANY
Better Performance Through Active Risk Control

DIVERSIFICATION

PERFORMANCE

CONCLUSION
ASSET
ALLOCATION

INTRODUCTION

DIVERSIFICATION

PERFORMANCE

OPTIMISTIC SCENARIO

CONCLUSION

PESSIMISTIC SCENARIO

Positive years: 1993 - 2000
250
230

+25.5%

210
190

Negative years: 2000 - 2003

170
150

110

130

100

110

90

90
80

70
1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

Global bonds

1998

1999

2000

-10.1%

70

Isis Medium

60

Positive years: 2003 - 2007

50

150

40
2000

140

+36.5%

130

2001
Global bonds

2002

2003

Isis Medium

120
110
100

UPSIDE HIGHER THAN DOWNSIDE

90
80
2003

2004

2005
Global bonds

27

2006
Isis Medium

DEGROOF FUND MANAGEMENT COMPANY
Better Performance Through Active Risk Control

2007
Bank Degroof’s

Behavioral Value strategy
Introduction to Bank Degroof’s Behavioral Value strategy
Unfortunately …
Cumulative value of British shares between 1955 and 2001

You are here

Source: “Capturing the Value Premium in the UK; 1955-2001” Dimson, Nagel & Quigley, LSE, January 2003

29

DEGROOF FUND MANAGEMENT COMPANY
Better Performance Through Active Risk Control
Introduction to Bank Degroof’s Behavioral Value strategy
2. Quality of forecasting is a disaster

Behavioral Value deals with these flaws through
A. Strong buying and selling discipline
Obtained through a quantitative approach and improved by
behavioral criteria such as earnings revision momentum

B. Behavioral Value eliminates the analysts’ bias of
long term optimism
By introducing mean reverting in the valuation model/business plan

30

DEGROOF FUND MANAGEMENT COMPANY
Better Performance Through Active Risk Control
Behavioral Value
The Wheel of Fortune – where Degroof is

31

DEGROOF FUND MANAGEMENT COMPANY
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Risk Premium
Last update : 02/09/201
0
1
4.75%

DJ Stoxx 50 Earnings Yield Gap - Growth sensitivity
1
4.75%

No rmative RP = 2.90% ; Last = 1 4% ; 30/08/201 = 1
0.1
0
0.60%

1
3.75%

1
3.75%

1
2.75%

1
2.75%

1 .75%
1

1 .75%
1

1
0.75%

1
0.75%

9.75%

9.75%

8.75%

8.75%

7.75%

7.75%

6.75%

6.75%

5.75%

5.75%

4.75%

4.75%

3.75%

3.75%

2.75%

2.75%

1
.75%

1
.75%

0.75%

0.75%

-0.25%
Jan-99

Jan-00

Jan-01

Jan-02

Jan-03

Jan-04

Jan-05

Jan-06

Jan-07

Jan-08

Jan-09

Risk P remium

32

No rmative RP

-25%

-1
5%

-5%

5%

1
5%

Stdev

Stdev

-35%

DEGROOF FUND MANAGEMENT COMPANY
Better Performance Through Active Risk Control

Jan-1
0

-0.25%
Degroof Equities Europe Behavioral Value Gips

33

DEGROOF FUND MANAGEMENT COMPANY
Better Performance Through Active Risk Control
Market snapshot

Source: Bloomberg 8th October 2010

34

DEGROOF FUND MANAGEMENT COMPANY
Better Performance Through Active Risk Control
Outlook
Comparison to previous crises
Start

End

Return US Equity Market

Q4 1948

Q4 1949

-15%

Q2 1953

Q2 1954

-12%

Q3 1957

Q2 1958

-19%

Q2 1960

Q1 1961

-11%

Q4 1969

Q4 1970

-30%

Q4 1973

Q1 1975

-46%

Q1 1980

Q3 1980

-7%

Q3 1981

Q4 1982

-24%

Q3 1990

Q1 1991

-16%

Q1 2001

Q4 2001

-46%

Q1 2008 (?)

Q1 2009 (?)

-43%

Mean

-23%

Median

-17%

Source: Lehman Brothers, Global Strategy Outlook, 7 December 2007
35

DEGROOF FUND MANAGEMENT COMPANY
Better Performance Through Active Risk Control
Outlook
Equities

Performance US equities 12 months after bear market bottom
Bottom reached at
8 July 1932

171%

31 March 1938

29%

28 April 1942

54%

19 May 1947

19%

13 June 1949

42%

22 October 1957

31%

26 June 1962

33%

7 October 1966

33%

26 May 1970

44%

3 October 1974

38%

12 August 1982

58%

4 December 1987

21%

11 October 1990

29%

9 October 2002
9 March 2009

34%
Oct 8, 2010 +68%

Average

45%

Median

33%
Source: Global Financial Data

36

DEGROOF FUND MANAGEMENT COMPANY
Better Performance Through Active Risk Control
Contact details
Thomas Palmblad,
Institutional & Corporate Desk
Rue de l’Industrie 44
1040 Bruxelles
E-mail: TKP@degroof.be
Phone: +32 2 287 93 27

www.degroof.be
37

DEGROOF FUND MANAGEMENT COMPANY
Better Performance Through Active Risk Control

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En thomas palmblad

  • 1. BANK DEGROOF Presentation for VIVIUM Assurances Bruxelles Kinepolis 14th October 2010 Mr. Thomas-Karl Palmblad 14th October 2010
  • 2. Agenda 1. Introduction of Bank Degroof 2. Introduction to Degroof’s Global Investment approach for VIVIUM 3. Introduction of Bank Degroof’s Behavioral Value strategy 4. Q & A 2 DEGROOF FUND MANAGEMENT COMPANY Better Performance Through Active Risk Control
  • 3. Bank Degroof  Independent merchant Bank, founded in 1871, owned by its management  24.1 bn EUR in assets under management  Asset management produces 80% of income  Headcount 1000  Offices in Belgium (HQ), Luxembourg, Switzerland, France, Spain and Bahamas 3 DEGROOF FUND MANAGEMENT COMPANY Better Performance Through Active Risk Control
  • 4. MANAGEMENT AND STAFF HAVE A STAKE IN THE GROUP’S SUCCESS 1. Senior management owns a majority stake in the bank. This gives them, in a long-term approach, a vital interest in the bank's performance and reputation Management & staff include (1) controlling stake held by Guimard Finance and the Philippson, Siaens, Schockert, Haegelsteen and Fontaine families, (2) active partners and (3) other members of management and staff Management and staff Financial 2. Financial partners include Compagnie du Bois Sauvage, Parmafin (Theo Maes partners and others 63.85% family), Luc Waucquez family, Levimmo and others. Own shares represent 1.19 % 4 DEGROOF FUND MANAGEMENT COMPANY Better Performance Through Active Risk Control 36.15%
  • 5. BANK DEGROOF’S REPUTATION IS BUILT ON THE EXPERTISE MADE AVAILABLE TO ITS CLIENTS Private clients Institutional clients Private wealth management • Bank Degroof Brussel’s Institutional Portfolio Management department, Degroof Fund Managament Company and Degroof Gestion Institutionnelle (DGI) are the Degroof group's competence centres for institutional asset management • Protect and grow • Full support at all stages of wealth creation • EUR 21.0 billion in assets under management • Management of EUR 15.9 billion in UCIs • Management of EUR 2.9 billion of institutional portfolios Financial markets • Specialists in legal, fiscal and inheritance structuring • Long-established financial market player • Advice and sales to institutional clients in equities, bonds, undertakings for collective investment, listed derivatives and treasury management • A leading liquidity provider on Euronext Brussels Credits & Structuring UCI administration Legal and patrimonial structuring • Credit facilities as part of overall asset management relationships 5 DEGROOF FUND MANAGEMENT COMPANY Better Performance Through Active Risk Control Public and private companies and their shareholders Corporate Finance • M&A expertise, recognized by various rankings • Dominant position in the issue of fairness opinions • One of the main financial advisers to the Belgian state and regional governments for privatisations and other major financial operations • Active role in private and public placements for private companies and companies listed on Euronext Brussels Credits & Structuring • Structured and tailor-made credits
  • 6. OUR REPUTATION AND PROFESSIONAL APPROACH ENABLE US TO ATTRACT AND RETAIN HIGHLY COMPETENT PROFESSIONALS • Our culture is that of top grade professionals, working together in a climate of mutual trust and respect to produce optimal, lasting solutions for our clients • This culture provides a stability stimulating creative innovation • We favour a long-term approach, with close attention to financial fundamentals • For example, the average length of service of senior staff is 11.2 years 6 DEGROOF FUND MANAGEMENT COMPANY Better Performance Through Active Risk Control
  • 7. Bank Degroof = excellent performance thanks to • a clear and contrarian investment philosophy, • inspired by academic research and, that is translated • into disciplined investment processes by Teams • through a "fundamental-quantitative” approach • and with tight risk control 7 DEGROOF FUND MANAGEMENT COMPANY Better Performance Through Active Risk Control
  • 8. VIVIUM, the switch to Degroof Active Management Styles VIVIUM Managed Funds 4 Compartments Degroof Active Funds Selection of 4 Management Styles Low  Stability Fund  Balanced Fund Global Medium  Dynamic Fund Global High  Aggressive Fund 8 Global Low Equities Europe Behavioral Value DEGROOF FUND MANAGEMENT COMPANY Better Performance Through Active Risk Control Active Risk Level High
  • 9. VIVIUM, the switch to Degroof Active Managed Investment Processes VIVIUM Managed Funds 4 Compartments 12 months return as at 30th September 2010  Stability Fund Return 1 Year : + 6.61%  Balanced Fund Return 1 Year : + 8.51%  Dynamic Fund Return 1 Year : + 9.89%  Aggressive Fund Low: 20% Return 1 Year : + 5.31% Equity Level High: 100% 9 DEGROOF FUND MANAGEMENT COMPANY Better Performance Through Active Risk Control
  • 10. VIVIUM, the switch to Degroof Active Managed Investment Processes VIVIUM Managed Funds 4 Compartments Low: 20%  Stability Fund Tracking Error 1.92% Vol. 5.29%  Balanced Fund Tracking Error 2.92% Vol. 9.8%  Dynamic Fund Tracking Error 6.28% Vol. 15.5%  Aggressive Fund Tracking Error 5% Vol. 19.7% Equity Level High: 100% 10 DEGROOF FUND MANAGEMENT COMPANY Better Performance Through Active Risk Control
  • 11. ASSET ASSET ALLOC ALLOCATION INTRODUCTION • DIVERSIFICATION PERFORMANCE CONCLUSION 3 RISK PROFILES ASSETS UNDER MANAGEMENT (mio €) GLOBAL LOW 2,500 1,918 2,000 GLOBAL MEDIUM 1,500  GLOBAL HIGH 1,000 580 EQUITY RATIO DEGROOF GLOBAL ISIS LOW - 20% ISIS LOW DEGROOF GLOBAL ISIS MEDIUM 48% DEGROOF GLOBAL ISIS HIGH 75% 0% 11 20% 347 500 40% 60% 80% DEGROOF FUND MANAGEMENT COMPANY Better Performance Through Active Risk Control 100% ISIS MEDIUM ISIS HIGH
  • 12. INTRODUCTION • ASSET ALLOCATION DIVERSIFICATION PERFORMANCE CONCLUSION MEDIUM = Flagship Management of Banque Degroof, 1.92 billion euros reflects the allocation strategy of medium risk • OBJECTIVE OPTIMIZE THE RETURN 1. Allocation between assets classes 2. Diversification within every asset class 12 DEGROOF FUND MANAGEMENT COMPANY Better Performance Through Active Risk Control 80% OF THE RETURN 20% OF THE RETURN
  • 13. INTRODUCTION Offices Commercial Residential ASSET ALLOCATION REAL ESTATE CONVERTIBLE BONDS ALTERNATIVE Flex Collar Hedge Funds Timber 13 DEGROOF FUND MANAGEMENT COMPANY Better Performance Through Active Risk Control DIVERSIFICATION PERFORMANCE CONCLUSION Govies / Agencies Securitized Corporates Inflation linked BONDS EQUITIES SHORT TERM Currencies Deposits Commercial papers Large caps Small caps Private Equity
  • 14. INTRODUCTION 1. ASSET ALLOCATION DIVERSIFICATION PERFORMANCE CONCLUSION ALLOCATION : MEDIUM (July 2010) Low High 14 DEGROOF FUND MANAGEMENT COMPANY Better Performance Through Active Risk Control
  • 15. ASSET ALLOCATION INTRODUCTION DIVERSIFICATION PERFORMANCE CONCLUSION 2. BENCHMARK ISIS MEDIUM 60% Max 58% 50% Bench 48% 40% Min 38% 38% 30% 28% 15 DEGROOF FUND MANAGEMENT COMPANY Better Performance Through Active Risk Control R ea 10% 8% 4% 0% h ds 2% 0% C as le st at at iv Al te rn ds Bo n v C on Eq u iti e s 0% e 6% 3% 0% e 10% 18% Bo n 21% 16% 11% 20% Low High
  • 16. INTRODUCTION ASSET ALLOCATION DIVERSIFICATION PERFORMANCE 3. ALLOCATION TOOLS (ASSETS CLASSES) INVESTMENT COMMITTEE MACRO-ECONOMY -Growth: Europe, USA, Japan, Emerging countries -Inflation : CPI, PPI Monetary aggegates Commodities prices World trade volume Labor cost -Short term interest -Long term interest -Exchange rates -Equity markets  valorisations 16 DEGROOF FUND MANAGEMENT COMPANY Better Performance Through Active Risk Control Leading indicators Consummer confidence Labour market New orders Inventories Profitability Real estate activity Credits CONCLUSION
  • 17. INTRODUCTION ASSET ALLOCATION PERFORMANCE DIVERSIFICATION CONCLUSION 3. ALLOCATION TOOLS (ASSETS CLASSES) INVESTMENT COMMITTEE FINANCIAL RATIOS FIXED INCOME COMMITTEE BONDS ALLOCATION - Duration/Positioning - Price/Earnings - Earnings revision - Govies-Inflation linked: Expected inflation QUANTITATIVE TOOLS - Credit: Corporate - govies: - Allocation Equity-Bonds: Risk premium - Sectors - Allocation Blue-Small: 17 Real interest rate Yield curve - Countries Relative P/E DEGROOF FUND MANAGEMENT COMPANY Better Performance Through Active Risk Control Rating/risk
  • 18. INTRODUCTION ASSET ALLOCATION DIVERSIFICATION PERFORMANCE 4. STRATEGY A. GLOBAL ALLOCATION  Slightly overweighted in equity  Underweighted in real estate (%)  Lower bonds duration 50 40 30 20 10 0 e s y ve ds tat uit nd ati s q o on E B rn B le lte nv ea A R Co Isis Medium 18 DEGROOF FUND MANAGEMENT COMPANY Better Performance Through Active Risk Control Benchmark sh Ca CONCLUSION
  • 19. INTRODUCTION ASSET ALLOCATION DIVERSIFICATION PERFORMANCE 4. STRATEGY B. EQUITY ALLOCATION  Underweighted in Japan 25 (%) 20 15 10 5 0 a ts ro uro ri c eu mk e E g ex Am e Em h p rt & uro No E sia A Isis Medium 19 DEGROOF FUND MANAGEMENT COMPANY Better Performance Through Active Risk Control Benchmark pa Ja n CONCLUSION
  • 20. INTRODUCTION ASSET ALLOCATION DIVERSIFICATION PERFORMANCE 4. STRATEGY C. BOND ALLOCATION (%) Overweighted in corporate & securitized bonds 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 AAA ISIS Medium 20 AA Benchmark DEGROOF FUND MANAGEMENT COMPANY Better Performance Through Active Risk Control A BBB NR CONCLUSION
  • 21. INTRODUCTION ASSET ALLOCATION DIVERSIFICATION 5. ASSET ALLOCATION: CONCLUSIONS Based on long term views 21 DEGROOF FUND MANAGEMENT COMPANY Better Performance Through Active Risk Control PERFORMANCE CONCLUSION
  • 22. INTRODUCTION ASSET ALLOCATION 1. NON EQUITY CLASSES - BONDS - FLEXIBLE COLLAR - CONVERTIBLE BONDS - HEDGE FUNDS - REAL ESTATE - COMMODITIES - OTHERS: TIMBER 22 DEGROOF FUND MANAGEMENT COMPANY Better Performance Through Active Risk Control DIVERSIFICATION PERFORMANCE 2. EQUITY CLASSES - STYLES: INDEXED VALUE GROWTH … - PRIVATE EQUITY CONCLUSION
  • 23. INTRODUCTION ASSET ALLOCATION DIVERSIFICATION PERFORMANCE CONCLUSION 1. NON EQUITY CLASSES MEDIUM Real properties 4% Conv bonds 3% Equity 51% Non equity 49% Bonds 25% Flex collar 14% Hedge funds 1% Timber Cash 1% Cash 2% 2% Bonds 16.5% Govies,  3.1% Inflation linked  2.4% Corporates 3.7% Securitized 23 DEGROOF FUND MANAGEMENT COMPANY Better Performance Through Active Risk Control
  • 24. INTRODUCTION ASSET ALLOCATION DIVERSIFICATION PERFORMANCE CONCLUSION 2. EQUITY CLASSES MEDIUM Non equity 49% Equity 51% Index 31% value 6% third party 12% private equity 1% 24 DEGROOF FUND MANAGEMENT COMPANY Better Performance Through Active Risk Control
  • 25. INTRODUCTION ASSET ALLOCATION DIVERSIFICATION PERFORMANCE DIVERSIFICATION: CONCLUSIONS Based on convictions, on medium term views 25 DEGROOF FUND MANAGEMENT COMPANY Better Performance Through Active Risk Control CONCLUSION
  • 26. INTRODUCTION 1 ASSET ALLOCATION RISK CONTROL MEDIUM Risk Control 26 DEGROOF FUND MANAGEMENT COMPANY Better Performance Through Active Risk Control DIVERSIFICATION PERFORMANCE CONCLUSION
  • 27. ASSET ALLOCATION INTRODUCTION DIVERSIFICATION PERFORMANCE OPTIMISTIC SCENARIO CONCLUSION PESSIMISTIC SCENARIO Positive years: 1993 - 2000 250 230 +25.5% 210 190 Negative years: 2000 - 2003 170 150 110 130 100 110 90 90 80 70 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 Global bonds 1998 1999 2000 -10.1% 70 Isis Medium 60 Positive years: 2003 - 2007 50 150 40 2000 140 +36.5% 130 2001 Global bonds 2002 2003 Isis Medium 120 110 100 UPSIDE HIGHER THAN DOWNSIDE 90 80 2003 2004 2005 Global bonds 27 2006 Isis Medium DEGROOF FUND MANAGEMENT COMPANY Better Performance Through Active Risk Control 2007
  • 29. Introduction to Bank Degroof’s Behavioral Value strategy Unfortunately … Cumulative value of British shares between 1955 and 2001 You are here Source: “Capturing the Value Premium in the UK; 1955-2001” Dimson, Nagel & Quigley, LSE, January 2003 29 DEGROOF FUND MANAGEMENT COMPANY Better Performance Through Active Risk Control
  • 30. Introduction to Bank Degroof’s Behavioral Value strategy 2. Quality of forecasting is a disaster Behavioral Value deals with these flaws through A. Strong buying and selling discipline Obtained through a quantitative approach and improved by behavioral criteria such as earnings revision momentum B. Behavioral Value eliminates the analysts’ bias of long term optimism By introducing mean reverting in the valuation model/business plan 30 DEGROOF FUND MANAGEMENT COMPANY Better Performance Through Active Risk Control
  • 31. Behavioral Value The Wheel of Fortune – where Degroof is 31 DEGROOF FUND MANAGEMENT COMPANY Better Performance Through Active Risk Control
  • 32. Risk Premium Last update : 02/09/201 0 1 4.75% DJ Stoxx 50 Earnings Yield Gap - Growth sensitivity 1 4.75% No rmative RP = 2.90% ; Last = 1 4% ; 30/08/201 = 1 0.1 0 0.60% 1 3.75% 1 3.75% 1 2.75% 1 2.75% 1 .75% 1 1 .75% 1 1 0.75% 1 0.75% 9.75% 9.75% 8.75% 8.75% 7.75% 7.75% 6.75% 6.75% 5.75% 5.75% 4.75% 4.75% 3.75% 3.75% 2.75% 2.75% 1 .75% 1 .75% 0.75% 0.75% -0.25% Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Risk P remium 32 No rmative RP -25% -1 5% -5% 5% 1 5% Stdev Stdev -35% DEGROOF FUND MANAGEMENT COMPANY Better Performance Through Active Risk Control Jan-1 0 -0.25%
  • 33. Degroof Equities Europe Behavioral Value Gips 33 DEGROOF FUND MANAGEMENT COMPANY Better Performance Through Active Risk Control
  • 34. Market snapshot Source: Bloomberg 8th October 2010 34 DEGROOF FUND MANAGEMENT COMPANY Better Performance Through Active Risk Control
  • 35. Outlook Comparison to previous crises Start End Return US Equity Market Q4 1948 Q4 1949 -15% Q2 1953 Q2 1954 -12% Q3 1957 Q2 1958 -19% Q2 1960 Q1 1961 -11% Q4 1969 Q4 1970 -30% Q4 1973 Q1 1975 -46% Q1 1980 Q3 1980 -7% Q3 1981 Q4 1982 -24% Q3 1990 Q1 1991 -16% Q1 2001 Q4 2001 -46% Q1 2008 (?) Q1 2009 (?) -43% Mean -23% Median -17% Source: Lehman Brothers, Global Strategy Outlook, 7 December 2007 35 DEGROOF FUND MANAGEMENT COMPANY Better Performance Through Active Risk Control
  • 36. Outlook Equities Performance US equities 12 months after bear market bottom Bottom reached at 8 July 1932 171% 31 March 1938 29% 28 April 1942 54% 19 May 1947 19% 13 June 1949 42% 22 October 1957 31% 26 June 1962 33% 7 October 1966 33% 26 May 1970 44% 3 October 1974 38% 12 August 1982 58% 4 December 1987 21% 11 October 1990 29% 9 October 2002 9 March 2009 34% Oct 8, 2010 +68% Average 45% Median 33% Source: Global Financial Data 36 DEGROOF FUND MANAGEMENT COMPANY Better Performance Through Active Risk Control
  • 37. Contact details Thomas Palmblad, Institutional & Corporate Desk Rue de l’Industrie 44 1040 Bruxelles E-mail: TKP@degroof.be Phone: +32 2 287 93 27 www.degroof.be 37 DEGROOF FUND MANAGEMENT COMPANY Better Performance Through Active Risk Control

Editor's Notes

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