Empowering makers in the cognitive era 20161202 v4
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1) The document discusses how technology has empowered and augmented human capabilities over time, from simple machines to today's cognitive systems. 2) It argues that in the future, humans will need to collaborate with machines and develop "T-shaped" skill profiles with both broad and deep skills to remain competitive as machines continue advancing. 3) The Bluemix Hackathon aims to explore the development of T-shaped skills through teamwork and using cognitive services, with the goal that the results and insights will be greater than just the sum of individual contributions.
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Empowering makers in the cognitive era 20161202 v4
- 1. And How the Bluemix Hackathon will Empower YOU Dr. Christian Eggenberger-Wang, TSS Business Unit Technical Lead in DACH Petra Kopp, Distinguished Engineer, IBM Global GTS Hybrid Cloud Architecture with support of Dr. Jim Spohrer, Director Understanding Cognitive Systems, IBM CHQ IP Bluemix Hackathon Pilot "Improving students life", Ehningen, 06.12.2016 – 09.12.2016 Empowering Makers in the Cognitive Era
- 2. A few decades ago, we had simple building blocks and needed much more effort to build simple things, … 2 Lego Classic Blocks Basic Program drew a Circle on a Commodore VC64 monitor
- 3. … than today 3 Lego Mindstorm solving Rubic’s Cube in seconds: ibm.biz/BdsqZk Worldwide Control over your Home with IBM Bluemix & a Raspberry Pi2: ibm.biz/BdsqZL
- 4. The Knowledge & Making developed gradually and literally culminated in the last couple centuries 4 Societal Knowledge Personabyte Societal Knowledge Personabyte Societal Knowledge Personabyte Organization Peoplebyte Societal Knowledge Personabyte Organization Crowdbyte 400,000 years ago ~7 century A.D. ~18 century A.D. ~20 century A.D.
- 5. Today, even a pencil or a toaster is too complex to be made by one single person 5 A simple toaster built of 400 pieces ibm.biz/BdsqL6 Ideas How I built a toaster – From scratch Thomas Thwaites
- 6. Now, we reach the next stage where the ingeniosity of human beings seem to commoditized by smart machines 6 2035 2055 “Wim” Klein, human calculator @ CERN A group of women called “Computers” The Hidden Figures: ibm.biz/BdsfhE
- 7. 7 Lets visualize, in what a short space of time one computer have the same power as one human brain. * 1 fl oz (US) = ~29.5 cm3 => ~3.1cm * ~3.1cm * ~3.1cm Lake Michigan’s volume (in fluid ounces (US)*) is about the same as our brain’s capacity (in calculations per second). Computing power doubles every 18 months. At that rate, you see very little progress for a long time – and suddenly you are finished.
- 8. It was a foretaste of what is to come when IBM Deep Blue won the Chess Tournament against Garry Kasparov in 1997 8 Chess becomes a commodity – Checkmate! For Good ? Dutch grandmaster Jan Hein Donner summed up the current attitude of human chess masters. When asked how he would prepare for a match against a computer, he replied, “I would bring a hammer.”
- 9. Though we made huge progress, we still use cognitive shovels which will ultimately turn into bulldozers. They will upside down industries with completely new kind of services 9 IBM’s Watson cluster supercomputer beat the human champions on the US television quiz show Jeopardy 1956 – Dartmouth Conference 1956 – 1981 Micro-Worlds 1981 – Japanese 5th Generation 1988 – Expert Systems Peak 1990 – AI Winter 1997 – Deep Blue 1997 – 2011 Real-World 2011 – Jeopardy! & SIRI 2013 – Cognitive Systems Institute 2014 – Watson Business Unit & True North Brain Chip 2015 – “Cognition as a Service” on IBM Bluemix Brief History of AI
- 10. Turing’s and von Neumann’s dream of universal machines and constructors seems to see light at the end of the tunnel 10
- 11. Hmmh, scary – What will be our contribution in the future ? 11
- 12. 12 Luckily, for us, there is a silver lining on the horizon in form of new ways we collaborate among us and computers The invention of ‘freestyle’ chess tournaments shows how this is possible. In these events, teams can include any combination of human and digital players. Average Specialist + Machine + Better Process beats Expert + Machine + Inferior Process, and beats Supercomputer alone
- 13. Than, there are still areas where humans have a comparative advantage over machines, as “Thinking Outside of the Box” 13
- 14. We can assume that many Chess Masters did not have a distinct T-Shaped Profile 14
- 15. Who knows, it might be a raised block with one or only a few deep, vertical bars 15
- 16. In ‘Freestyle’ Chess Tournaments, the players need broader skills, but less depth 16
- 17. WEF illustrates in its study “The Future of Jobs”, how crucial a T-Shaped profile is to prevail in the job market 17 Top Ten Skills based on the WEF Framework World Economic Forum (WEF)
- 18. YOU, as Peoplebyte, will explore T-Shaped skills by teaming and using “Cognition as a Service” on IBM Bluemix. The Results and Insights will be more than the sum of its parts. 18 Peoplebyte Cognition as a Service + + > >
- 19. 19 AWARD
Editor's Notes
- After briefly surveying the history of knowledge, computing, programming, and software engineering, computing education will be reframed as empowering makers in the cognitive era. The makers’ movement is about the democratization of the tools of self-expression and production. From global cloud-based deployment of apps on smart phones to nano-manipulation of advanced materials in custom jewelry and clothing with open designs downloadable for 3D printers, software empowers makers to co-create value in smart service systems. Smart service systems are based on provider platforms that enable customer to interact and co-create value together. In addition, cognitive assistants for all business occupations and societal roles are beginning to appear democratizing access to knowledge and expertise in smart service systems. Teaching about the elegance, not just correctness, of solutions and how they serve customers wants, needs, and aspiration will be of increasing importance. The implications for a next generation of students who “make a job, not just take a job” even before graduation will be explored. Also, issues of sustainability and resilience of smart service systems with empowered makers in the cognitive era will be explored. Rethinking the rights and responsibilities of empowered makers at all ages will require an especially close examination of the way teamwork is encouraged and rewarded in families, neighborhoods, and educational institutions.
- Today’s talk will explore two questions What should we know how to make? What might programming education become? If we look at history we see a time when people could make only simple things, and often a single person could make them. Would it ever be possible for a single person to know and make complex things? And what role might programming education play? Will the cognitive era – the coming era of smart machines – make people more capable or less capable to know and make complex things?
- Would it ever be possible for a single person to know and make complex things? And what role might programming education play? Will the cognitive era – the coming era of smart machines – make people more capable or less capable to know and make complex things?
- Cesar Hidalgo of MIT Media Lab talks about Personbyte and Peoplebyte knowledge – what a single person can know and make (personbyte), and what a population of people can know and make (peoplebyte). The growth of knowledge and the ability to make more and more complex things – (1) what a person can make - fire, (2) what a city of people can make – buildings, (3) what a factory can make – complex products, (4) what global networks can make – huge things. MIT Media Lab Youtube: Networks Understanding Networks, Pt. 1: Welcome by Nicholas Negroponte, Joi Ito, and César Hidalgo https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mwIjcv7OWMo
- No single person can make a pencil – it is too complex. A design student did try to make a toaster – and if you have not seen the TED Talk, I encourage you to watch it – it is very funny. Toaster Project: http://www.ted.com/talks/thomas_thwaites_how_i_built_a_toaster_from_scratch?language=en https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I,_Pencil "I, Pencil" is written in the first person from the point of view of a pencil. The pencil details the complexity of its own creation, listing its components (cedar, lacquer, graphite, ferrule, factice, pumice, wax, glue) and the numerous people involved, down to the sweeper in the factory and the lighthouse keeper guiding the shipment into port.
- If Moore’s Law continues, by 2035 and by 2055, we are projected to have unimaginably large amounts of cheap computing…. 2035 one human brain level, and by 2055 all human brains level(10 billion people). Based on Kurweil’s graph of how much compute power $1000 will buy, it seems that by 2030, for $1000 you should be able to buy the compute power of one person’s brain, and that by 2060 for $1000 you should be able to buy the computer power of 10***10, or 10B people, the compute power of the world’s population for $1000. Source: http://waitbutwhy.com/2015/01/artificial-intelligence-revolution-1.html Was Moore’s Law inevitable? http://kk.org/thetechnium/was-moores-law/ Wim (Willem) Klein, Human Calculator @ CERN in the late 1950s. http://afflictor.com/tag/wim-klein/
- Source URL: Mother Jones - http://www.motherjones.com/media/2013/05/robots-artificial-intelligence-jobs-automation
- You can tell famous computer scientists and mathematicians, because they end up on stamps… Von Neumann was one of the first to make the connection to computation and self-replicating automata…. Both Turing and von Neumann dreamed of universal machines, universal constructors, kinematic machines, self-replicating machines, and more…. Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-replicating_machine
- Source: The Second Machine Age – Work, Progress and Prosperity in a Time of Brilliant Technologies by Erik Brynjolfsson & Andrew McAfee As Kasparov himself stated in 2005, “The teams of human plus machine dominated even the strongest computers. The chess machine Hydra, which is a chess-specific supercomputer like Deep Blue, was no match for a strong human player using a relatively weak laptop. Human strategic guidance combined with the tactical acuity of a computer was overwhelming. At the end, the winners were amateur American chess players using three computers at the same time. Their skill at manipulating and “coaching” their computers to look very deeply into positions effectively counteracted the superior chess understanding of their grandmaster opponents.
- If Moore’s Law continues, by 2035 and by 2055, we are projected to have unimaginably large amounts of cheap computing…. 2035 one human brain level, and by 2055 all human brains level(10 billion people). Based on Kurweil’s graph of how much compute power $1000 will buy, it seems that by 2030, for $1000 you should be able to buy the compute power of one person’s brain, and that by 2060 for $1000 you should be able to buy the computer power of 10***10, or 10B people, the compute power of the world’s population for $1000. Source: http://waitbutwhy.com/2015/01/artificial-intelligence-revolution-1.html Was Moore’s Law inevitable? http://kk.org/thetechnium/was-moores-law/ Wim (Willem) Klein, Human Calculator @ CERN in the late 1950s. http://afflictor.com/tag/wim-klein/
- If Moore’s Law continues, by 2035 and by 2055, we are projected to have unimaginably large amounts of cheap computing…. 2035 one human brain level, and by 2055 all human brains level(10 billion people). Based on Kurweil’s graph of how much compute power $1000 will buy, it seems that by 2030, for $1000 you should be able to buy the compute power of one person’s brain, and that by 2060 for $1000 you should be able to buy the computer power of 10***10, or 10B people, the compute power of the world’s population for $1000. Source: http://waitbutwhy.com/2015/01/artificial-intelligence-revolution-1.html Was Moore’s Law inevitable? http://kk.org/thetechnium/was-moores-law/ Wim (Willem) Klein, Human Calculator @ CERN in the late 1950s. http://afflictor.com/tag/wim-klein/
- If Moore’s Law continues, by 2035 and by 2055, we are projected to have unimaginably large amounts of cheap computing…. 2035 one human brain level, and by 2055 all human brains level(10 billion people). Based on Kurweil’s graph of how much compute power $1000 will buy, it seems that by 2030, for $1000 you should be able to buy the compute power of one person’s brain, and that by 2060 for $1000 you should be able to buy the computer power of 10***10, or 10B people, the compute power of the world’s population for $1000. Source: http://waitbutwhy.com/2015/01/artificial-intelligence-revolution-1.html Was Moore’s Law inevitable? http://kk.org/thetechnium/was-moores-law/ Wim (Willem) Klein, Human Calculator @ CERN in the late 1950s. http://afflictor.com/tag/wim-klein/
- If Moore’s Law continues, by 2035 and by 2055, we are projected to have unimaginably large amounts of cheap computing…. 2035 one human brain level, and by 2055 all human brains level(10 billion people). Based on Kurweil’s graph of how much compute power $1000 will buy, it seems that by 2030, for $1000 you should be able to buy the compute power of one person’s brain, and that by 2060 for $1000 you should be able to buy the computer power of 10***10, or 10B people, the compute power of the world’s population for $1000. Source: http://waitbutwhy.com/2015/01/artificial-intelligence-revolution-1.html Was Moore’s Law inevitable? http://kk.org/thetechnium/was-moores-law/ Wim (Willem) Klein, Human Calculator @ CERN in the late 1950s. http://afflictor.com/tag/wim-klein/