The document analyzes India's economic outlook and competitiveness based on various global indices. It discusses India's ranking and scores on the Global Competitiveness Index across basic requirements, efficiency enhancers, and innovation factors. Additionally, it provides an overview of key economic indicators for India such as GDP growth, inflation, exchange reserves, and the contribution of major sectors like agriculture, industry, and services to the economy.
Impact of Commercial Banking on Nigeria Industrial Sectorijtsrd
This study examines the impact of commercial banking on Nigeria industrial sector using secondary data covering the period of 1980 2018 that were obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria. The model's estimates were estimated via multiple econometric model of the ordinary least square to determine the effect of commercial bank credit to industrial sector, inflation, infrastructure, exchange rate, interest rate, labour force and bank capital on industrial sector proxied by industrial output. The results show that commercial bank credits to industrial sector, infrastructure, inflation, labour and bank capital have a positive impact on industrial sector while exchange rate has a negative impact on industrial sector but conforms to the a priori expectation. The study also found out that only commercial bank credits to industrial sector and infrastructure were significant in explaining industrial sector growth while other variables used in the study were all found to be non significant in explaining the growth rate of the industrial sector. The study concludes that adequate commercial banks credit intermediation in the industrial sector and government expenditure on the needed infrastructure will enhance the sector performance. Onwuteaka, Ifeoma Cecilia PhD | Molokwu, Ifeoma Mirian | Aju Gregory. C. ""Impact of Commercial Banking on Nigeria Industrial Sector"" Published in International Journal of Trend in Scientific Research and Development (ijtsrd), ISSN: 2456-6470, Volume-3 | Issue-3 , April 2019, URL: https://www.ijtsrd.com/papers/ijtsrd23140.pdf
Paper URL: https://www.ijtsrd.com/management/-/23140/impact-of-commercial-banking-on-nigeria-industrial-sector/onwuteaka-ifeoma-cecilia-phd
Impact of Commercial Banking on Nigeria Industrial Sectorijtsrd
This study examines the impact of commercial banking on Nigeria industrial sector using secondary data covering the period of 1980 2018 that were obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria. The model's estimates were estimated via multiple econometric model of the ordinary least square to determine the effect of commercial bank credit to industrial sector, inflation, infrastructure, exchange rate, interest rate, labour force and bank capital on industrial sector proxied by industrial output. The results show that commercial bank credits to industrial sector, infrastructure, inflation, labour and bank capital have a positive impact on industrial sector while exchange rate has a negative impact on industrial sector but conforms to the a priori expectation. The study also found out that only commercial bank credits to industrial sector and infrastructure were significant in explaining industrial sector growth while other variables used in the study were all found to be non significant in explaining the growth rate of the industrial sector. The study concludes that adequate commercial banks credit intermediation in the industrial sector and government expenditure on the needed infrastructure will enhance the sector performance. Onwuteaka, Ifeoma Cecilia PhD | Molokwu, Ifeoma Mirian | Aju Gregory. C. ""Impact of Commercial Banking on Nigeria Industrial Sector"" Published in International Journal of Trend in Scientific Research and Development (ijtsrd), ISSN: 2456-6470, Volume-3 | Issue-3 , April 2019, URL: https://www.ijtsrd.com/papers/ijtsrd23140.pdf
Paper URL: https://www.ijtsrd.com/management/-/23140/impact-of-commercial-banking-on-nigeria-industrial-sector/onwuteaka-ifeoma-cecilia-phd
In the publication "India 2020 Economy Outlook", D&B attempts to evaluate and analyse the prospects of the Indian economy over the next six years. This publication provides a forecast of key macroeconomic variables over the next few years. The publication also covers analysis of various Indian states with respect to their potential to contribute to India’s growth. It also analyses various enablers and major policy initiatives that would drive and facilitate India’s economic journey. It also presents various challenges to growth in the next few years.
Reflecting a positive hiring outlook, the organized sector in India is expected to create about 1.6 million new jobs in the year 2012, as per the latest results of a survey from HR firm Ma Foi Randstad..
National Conference on “Infrastructure Finance – Building for Growth” - INDIA...Resurgent India
Indian economy after registering a robust growth of more than 9% during the period 2005-08, moderated to a growth of 6.7% in 2008-09 on the back of the global financial crisi
This presentation contains the positive and negative impacts regarding corona. I made it from various resources and wanted it share it publicly, so that others can also use it.
Manufacturing in Indonesia: New Options, Opportunities and ChallengesCascade Asia Advisors
Though it has yet fully regained its former dynamism, Indonesia is increasingly being recognized for its manufacturing competitiveness. This white paper provides a snapshot of Indonesia’s manufacturing sector and identifies the fastest growing sectors and cost effective locations. By examining the size, growth trajectory, supporting infrastructure developments and the government’s targets and strategies within manufacturing this paper touches on both the challenges and opportunities facing the industry at present.
In the publication "India 2020 Economy Outlook", D&B attempts to evaluate and analyse the prospects of the Indian economy over the next six years. This publication provides a forecast of key macroeconomic variables over the next few years. The publication also covers analysis of various Indian states with respect to their potential to contribute to India’s growth. It also analyses various enablers and major policy initiatives that would drive and facilitate India’s economic journey. It also presents various challenges to growth in the next few years.
Reflecting a positive hiring outlook, the organized sector in India is expected to create about 1.6 million new jobs in the year 2012, as per the latest results of a survey from HR firm Ma Foi Randstad..
National Conference on “Infrastructure Finance – Building for Growth” - INDIA...Resurgent India
Indian economy after registering a robust growth of more than 9% during the period 2005-08, moderated to a growth of 6.7% in 2008-09 on the back of the global financial crisi
This presentation contains the positive and negative impacts regarding corona. I made it from various resources and wanted it share it publicly, so that others can also use it.
Manufacturing in Indonesia: New Options, Opportunities and ChallengesCascade Asia Advisors
Though it has yet fully regained its former dynamism, Indonesia is increasingly being recognized for its manufacturing competitiveness. This white paper provides a snapshot of Indonesia’s manufacturing sector and identifies the fastest growing sectors and cost effective locations. By examining the size, growth trajectory, supporting infrastructure developments and the government’s targets and strategies within manufacturing this paper touches on both the challenges and opportunities facing the industry at present.
Subsequent to a huge shift of economic growth and opportunities to emerging economies, particularly in Asia, managing and retaining key talent has become important for sustainable growth. Organizations are being forced to rethink their talent pipeline and transform their HR function to deal with new priorities and risks.
The impact of technology and the need for innovation continue to demand new skills in new places. A clear plan for global talent mobility alongside the development of strong local talent is vital. The paradigm shift has also brought new regulator y obligations, transformed our view of pay and incentives, and refocused our definition of employee engagement.
A research paper prepared by me on the Manufacturing Sector In India. It contains a SWOT analysis and possible outcomes in the future for the industry.
Recently, IMF said that India will grew at 7.5% overtaking China as the fastest growing economy in 2015-16 due to recent policy initiatives made by government of India.But the prospects could change depending on the implementation of the reforms of the new Modi government.
The organized sector in India created 346,000 jobs between July and September 2011 and is expected to add another 326,400 by end 2011, according to the latest findings of Ma Foi Randstad Employment Trends Survey – Wave 3.
The survey was conducted among 676 companies across 13 industry segments panning 8 Indian cities. The feedback was gathered from the top HR personnel and senior management of companies, who shared valuable insights on the job creation during the last (July – September) and the current (October – December) quarters of 2011.
The current slowdown in the economy and increasing domestic inflation has resulted in sectoral variation in the employment outlook among sectors and although new jobs continue to be added, it is at a slower pace. According to the survey, the Healthcare sector continues to lead in job generation by adding 60,400 jobs in Q3 (July – September) 2011, followed by Hospitality sector with 48,400 jobs and IT & ITeS sector with 46,600 jobs during the same period.
This is however lesser than the numbers (Healthcare - 63,800 / Hospitality - 54,400 / IT & ITeS - 55,500) predicted at the beginning of the quarter three. These sectors are expected to continue as the lead job generators in the coming quarter with Healthcare expecting to add 58,700 jobs followed by Hospitality & ITeS adding 40,000 plus jobs each.
Among the cities, Mumbai added 28,500 jobs, followed by Delhi & NCR adding 27,000 and Chennai adding 15,500. However, the total job generation by these 3 cities was lower by 6,100 jobs, against the original prediction (Mumbai - 32,300 / New Delhi & NCR – 27,900 / Chennai – 16,900) at the beginning of Q3. These cities are expected to generate a total of 69,200 jobs in the current quarter.
Industrial growth in Pakistan 2015: An OverviewAyesha Majid
Pakistan is improving as it has maintained the growth momentum and achievements are broad based touching all sectors of the economy. The growth recorded for 2014-15 is 4.24 percent and will further accelerate in coming years as business climate is improving on fast track with better growth oriented policies of the government.
Now situation is improving as the present government has launched comprehensive plan to create investment friendly environment & to attract foreign investors in the country. The investment policy has been designed to provide a comprehensive framework for creating a conducive business environment for the attraction of FDI. Private investment recorded in last year was Rs. 2,513 billion and it expanded to Rs. 2,645 billion for the fiscal year 2014-15.
This increase in private investment is the reflection that private investors are showing confidence on government policies and situation is improving.
• GSDP of manufacturing sector of Gujarat is ~ Rs. 131,889 crore (USD 26.4 billion) (at current prices) in 2010-11
• Total investment of 2010 in the manufacturing sector in Gujarat was Rs. 342,079 crore (USD 68.4 billion)
• CAGR of investments in manufacturing sector in last 6 years ~ 19%.
MSME Sector - Growth, Challenges & Opportunities Resurgent India
The MSME sector contributes in a significant way to the growth of the Indian economy across the realms of production system, employment generation, national output, exports etc. The MSME Sector comprises of approximately 48 million units that produce more than 6,000 products ranging from traditional to high-tech items. The sector is driving sustainable growth in Indian economy by providing employment to around 111 million people, accounts for 45% of the manufacturing output, 40% of the country's exports and contributes 8-9% to the country's GDP.
Micro Small and Medium Enterprise Funding - Opportunities and ChallengesResurgent India
What are MSMEs, Why are they Important, What is their role in the Economy and What are the Opportunities and Challenges related to Funding in the Sector? This Research Report from Resurgent India highlights the Opportunities and Challenges along with Suggestions for MSME Funding.
The Evolution of Non-Banking Financial Companies (NBFCs) in India: Challenges...beulahfernandes8
Role in Financial System
NBFCs are critical in bridging the financial inclusion gap.
They provide specialized financial services that cater to segments often neglected by traditional banks.
Economic Impact
NBFCs contribute significantly to India's GDP.
They support sectors like micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs), housing finance, and personal loans.
how to sell pi coins effectively (from 50 - 100k pi)DOT TECH
Anywhere in the world, including Africa, America, and Europe, you can sell Pi Network Coins online and receive cash through online payment options.
Pi has not yet been launched on any exchange because we are currently using the confined Mainnet. The planned launch date for Pi is June 28, 2026.
Reselling to investors who want to hold until the mainnet launch in 2026 is currently the sole way to sell.
Consequently, right now. All you need to do is select the right pi network provider.
Who is a pi merchant?
An individual who buys coins from miners on the pi network and resells them to investors hoping to hang onto them until the mainnet is launched is known as a pi merchant.
debuts.
I'll provide you the Telegram username
@Pi_vendor_247
The secret way to sell pi coins effortlessly.DOT TECH
Well as we all know pi isn't launched yet. But you can still sell your pi coins effortlessly because some whales in China are interested in holding massive pi coins. And they are willing to pay good money for it. If you are interested in selling I will leave a contact for you. Just telegram this number below. I sold about 3000 pi coins to him and he paid me immediately.
Telegram: @Pi_vendor_247
Lecture slide titled Fraud Risk Mitigation, Webinar Lecture Delivered at the Society for West African Internal Audit Practitioners (SWAIAP) on Wednesday, November 8, 2023.
how to sell pi coins in South Korea profitably.DOT TECH
Yes. You can sell your pi network coins in South Korea or any other country, by finding a verified pi merchant
What is a verified pi merchant?
Since pi network is not launched yet on any exchange, the only way you can sell pi coins is by selling to a verified pi merchant, and this is because pi network is not launched yet on any exchange and no pre-sale or ico offerings Is done on pi.
Since there is no pre-sale, the only way exchanges can get pi is by buying from miners. So a pi merchant facilitates these transactions by acting as a bridge for both transactions.
How can i find a pi vendor/merchant?
Well for those who haven't traded with a pi merchant or who don't already have one. I will leave the telegram id of my personal pi merchant who i trade pi with.
Tele gram: @Pi_vendor_247
#pi #sell #nigeria #pinetwork #picoins #sellpi #Nigerian #tradepi #pinetworkcoins #sellmypi
The European Unemployment Puzzle: implications from population agingGRAPE
We study the link between the evolving age structure of the working population and unemployment. We build a large new Keynesian OLG model with a realistic age structure, labor market frictions, sticky prices, and aggregate shocks. Once calibrated to the European economy, we quantify the extent to which demographic changes over the last three decades have contributed to the decline of the unemployment rate. Our findings yield important implications for the future evolution of unemployment given the anticipated further aging of the working population in Europe. We also quantify the implications for optimal monetary policy: lowering inflation volatility becomes less costly in terms of GDP and unemployment volatility, which hints that optimal monetary policy may be more hawkish in an aging society. Finally, our results also propose a partial reversal of the European-US unemployment puzzle due to the fact that the share of young workers is expected to remain robust in the US.
how to sell pi coins on Bitmart crypto exchangeDOT TECH
Yes. Pi network coins can be exchanged but not on bitmart exchange. Because pi network is still in the enclosed mainnet. The only way pioneers are able to trade pi coins is by reselling the pi coins to pi verified merchants.
A verified merchant is someone who buys pi network coins and resell it to exchanges looking forward to hold till mainnet launch.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade with.
@Pi_vendor_247
how to sell pi coins at high rate quickly.DOT TECH
Where can I sell my pi coins at a high rate.
Pi is not launched yet on any exchange. But one can easily sell his or her pi coins to investors who want to hold pi till mainnet launch.
This means crypto whales want to hold pi. And you can get a good rate for selling pi to them. I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi vendor below.
A vendor is someone who buys from a miner and resell it to a holder or crypto whale.
Here is the telegram contact of my vendor:
@Pi_vendor_247
where can I find a legit pi merchant onlineDOT TECH
Yes. This is very easy what you need is a recommendation from someone who has successfully traded pi coins before with a merchant.
Who is a pi merchant?
A pi merchant is someone who buys pi network coins and resell them to Investors looking forward to hold thousands of pi coins before the open mainnet.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade with
@Pi_vendor_247
how to swap pi coins to foreign currency withdrawable.DOT TECH
As of my last update, Pi is still in the testing phase and is not tradable on any exchanges.
However, Pi Network has announced plans to launch its Testnet and Mainnet in the future, which may include listing Pi on exchanges.
The current method for selling pi coins involves exchanging them with a pi vendor who purchases pi coins for investment reasons.
If you want to sell your pi coins, reach out to a pi vendor and sell them to anyone looking to sell pi coins from any country around the globe.
Below is the contact information for my personal pi vendor.
Telegram: @Pi_vendor_247
how to sell pi coins in all Africa Countries.DOT TECH
Yes. You can sell your pi network for other cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, usdt , Ethereum and other currencies And this is done easily with the help from a pi merchant.
What is a pi merchant ?
Since pi is not launched yet in any exchange. The only way you can sell right now is through merchants.
A verified Pi merchant is someone who buys pi network coins from miners and resell them to investors looking forward to hold massive quantities of pi coins before mainnet launch in 2026.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade with.
@Pi_vendor_247
US Economic Outlook - Being Decided - M Capital Group August 2021.pdfpchutichetpong
The U.S. economy is continuing its impressive recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic and not slowing down despite re-occurring bumps. The U.S. savings rate reached its highest ever recorded level at 34% in April 2020 and Americans seem ready to spend. The sectors that had been hurt the most by the pandemic specifically reduced consumer spending, like retail, leisure, hospitality, and travel, are now experiencing massive growth in revenue and job openings.
Could this growth lead to a “Roaring Twenties”? As quickly as the U.S. economy contracted, experiencing a 9.1% drop in economic output relative to the business cycle in Q2 2020, the largest in recorded history, it has rebounded beyond expectations. This surprising growth seems to be fueled by the U.S. government’s aggressive fiscal and monetary policies, and an increase in consumer spending as mobility restrictions are lifted. Unemployment rates between June 2020 and June 2021 decreased by 5.2%, while the demand for labor is increasing, coupled with increasing wages to incentivize Americans to rejoin the labor force. Schools and businesses are expected to fully reopen soon. In parallel, vaccination rates across the country and the world continue to rise, with full vaccination rates of 50% and 14.8% respectively.
However, it is not completely smooth sailing from here. According to M Capital Group, the main risks that threaten the continued growth of the U.S. economy are inflation, unsettled trade relations, and another wave of Covid-19 mutations that could shut down the world again. Have we learned from the past year of COVID-19 and adapted our economy accordingly?
“In order for the U.S. economy to continue growing, whether there is another wave or not, the U.S. needs to focus on diversifying supply chains, supporting business investment, and maintaining consumer spending,” says Grace Feeley, a research analyst at M Capital Group.
While the economic indicators are positive, the risks are coming closer to manifesting and threatening such growth. The new variants spreading throughout the world, Delta, Lambda, and Gamma, are vaccine-resistant and muddy the predictions made about the economy and health of the country. These variants bring back the feeling of uncertainty that has wreaked havoc not only on the stock market but the mindset of people around the world. MCG provides unique insight on how to mitigate these risks to possibly ensure a bright economic future.
Seminar: Gender Board Diversity through Ownership NetworksGRAPE
Seminar on gender diversity spillovers through ownership networks at FAME|GRAPE. Presenting novel research. Studies in economics and management using econometrics methods.
USDA Loans in California: A Comprehensive Overview.pptxmarketing367770
USDA Loans in California: A Comprehensive Overview
If you're dreaming of owning a home in California's rural or suburban areas, a USDA loan might be the perfect solution. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) offers these loans to help low-to-moderate-income individuals and families achieve homeownership.
Key Features of USDA Loans:
Zero Down Payment: USDA loans require no down payment, making homeownership more accessible.
Competitive Interest Rates: These loans often come with lower interest rates compared to conventional loans.
Flexible Credit Requirements: USDA loans have more lenient credit score requirements, helping those with less-than-perfect credit.
Guaranteed Loan Program: The USDA guarantees a portion of the loan, reducing risk for lenders and expanding borrowing options.
Eligibility Criteria:
Location: The property must be located in a USDA-designated rural or suburban area. Many areas in California qualify.
Income Limits: Applicants must meet income guidelines, which vary by region and household size.
Primary Residence: The home must be used as the borrower's primary residence.
Application Process:
Find a USDA-Approved Lender: Not all lenders offer USDA loans, so it's essential to choose one approved by the USDA.
Pre-Qualification: Determine your eligibility and the amount you can borrow.
Property Search: Look for properties in eligible rural or suburban areas.
Loan Application: Submit your application, including financial and personal information.
Processing and Approval: The lender and USDA will review your application. If approved, you can proceed to closing.
USDA loans are an excellent option for those looking to buy a home in California's rural and suburban areas. With no down payment and flexible requirements, these loans make homeownership more attainable for many families. Explore your eligibility today and take the first step toward owning your dream home.
Currently pi network is not tradable on binance or any other exchange because we are still in the enclosed mainnet.
Right now the only way to sell pi coins is by trading with a verified merchant.
What is a pi merchant?
A pi merchant is someone verified by pi network team and allowed to barter pi coins for goods and services.
Since pi network is not doing any pre-sale The only way exchanges like binance/huobi or crypto whales can get pi is by buying from miners. And a merchant stands in between the exchanges and the miners.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant. I and my friends has traded more than 6000pi coins successfully
Tele-gram
@Pi_vendor_247
2. Global Competitiveness Index
Basic requirements
sub index
Pillar 1: Institutions
Pillar 2: Infrastructure
Pillar 3: Macroeconomic
environment
Pillar 4: Health and primary
education
Pillar 5: Higher education
and training
Pillar 6: Goods market
efficiency
Pillar 7: Labour market
efficiency
Pillar 8: Financial market
development
Pillar 9: Technological
readiness
Pillar 10 : Market size
Efficiency
enhancers sub
index
Pillar 11: Business
sophistication
Pillar 12: Innovation
Innovation and
sophistication
factors sub index
Key for
factor-driven
economies
Key for
Efficiency-driven
economies
Key for
innovation-driven
economies
Source : Global Competitiveness Report 2012-13
Di idi g the o ld s e o o ies
3. Rank out of 144 Score (1-7)
GCI 2012–2013 59 4.3
GCI 2011–2012 (out of 142) 56 4.3
GCI 2010–2011 (out of 139) 51 4.3
Basic requirements (60.0%) 85 4.3
Institutions 70 3.9
Infrastructure 84 3.6
Macroeconomic environment 99 4.3
Health and primary education 101 5.3
Efficiency enhancers (35.0%) 39 4.5
Higher education and training 86 4
Goods market efficiency 75 4.2
Labor market efficiency 82 4.2
Financial market development 21 4.9
Technological readiness 96 3.4
Market size 3 6.2
Innovation and sophistication factors (5.0%) 43 3.9
Business sophistication 40 4.3
Innovation 41 3.6
Source : Global Competitiveness Report 2012-13
Measu i g I dia s Fa to D i e e o o
4. Economic Indicators
Govt. Bond yield (10 yr) 8.63%
Currency 65.25
Stock market (index pts.) 19270.06
GDP (USD bn) 1841.7
Growth rate (annual) 4.4.%
GDP Per capita (USD) 1106.8
Inflation rate (WPI) 5.59%
Foreign exchange reserves (INR bn) 15551.4
Interbank rate 12.25%
Current account to GDP -4.8%
• The economy of India is the 10th -largest in the world by nominal
GDP and the 3rd -largest by purchasing power parity (PPP)
• The country is one of the G-20 major economies and a member of
BRICS
• On a per-capita-income basis, India ranked 141st by nominal GDP
and 130th by GDP (PPP) in 2012, according to the IMF
• India is the 19th-largest exporter and the 10th-largest importer in
the world
• India's GDP grew by 9.3% in 2010–11; thus, the growth rate has
nearly halved in just three years to be at 4.4% in the current
quarter
• On August 28, 2013 rupee hit an all time low of 68.80 against US
dollar
• Services are the highest contributor to GDP (65%), followed by
Industry (27%), and Agriculture(8%)
• Main industries are: textiles, chemicals, food processing, steel,
transportation equipment, cement, mining, petroleum, machinery,
software, pharmaceuticals
Indian Economy at a glance
Source : Tradingeconomics.com
Indian is the 10th largest economy in the world by GDP
5. Indian Economy at a Glance --- Gross Domestic Product
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013
GDP GROWTH RATE
GDP GROWTH RATE
GDP growth rate of 7.2%
Since the global financial crisis of 2008-09, the Indian
economy grew to a healthy 8.6% till 2010-11.
Since then, growth started declining. The trend continued in
2012-13 with a disappointing growth rate of 5.4% in the first
half, resulting in lowering of expectations.
The se o d ua te s g o th at . % is o e of the lo est
quarterly growth rates seen in the last decade and the
annual growth of 5% will be the lowest since 2002-03.
Agriculture
13%
Industries
26%Service 61%
PERCENTAGE OF GDP
Contribution of Different Sector to GPD
Source : MOSPI.nic.in
Indian Economy is Driven by Domestic Consumption
Exports
23%
Domestic
77%
PERCENTAGE OF GDP
FY 2014
(expected)
6. Indian Economy at a Glance –Sector wise
Growth Rate of Different Sector
Indian Economy consists of 3 major Sectors – Agriculture ,
Industry and Service
Historically the growth in the service sector has been the
highest.
E o o s depe de e o slo l g o i g ag i ultu e se to
has been reduced to 13%
Due to economic slowdown the Growth of industrial sector
has been reduced to 0.2%, which is expected to recover
soon.
0.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
4.00%
5.00%
6.00%
7.00%
Growth Rate
Agriculture Industry Service Overall
6
7. A micro view at the major sectors – Agriculture
After an impressive growth of 7.9% in 2010-11, agricultural growth rate declined to 3.6% in 2011-12 and further dipped to 1.8% in 2012-
13. The agriculture sector in India is largely monsoon dependent. This downfall is primarily attributable to the delayed and deficient
rainfall.
Te h ologi al gai s i ag i ultu e a d fa e s espo se to ette i f ast u tu e is e pe ted to positi el affe t pe fo a e of this sector
in the coming years. A dedicated Sub-Mission on Agricultural Mechanization has been proposed for the 12th Plan which includes custom-
hiring facilities for agricultural machinery as one of its major components.
The agricultural sector, despite accounting for less
than 15% of GDP, plays an important role in the
economy considering its more than 50% share of
employment.
The ag i ultu e, fo est a d fishi g se to is
likely to show a growth of 1.8 per cent in its GDP
during 2012- , as agai st the p e ious ea s
growth rate of 3.6 %.
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
Total economy Agriculture, forestry &
fishing
Agriculture Inc. Livestock Fishing
2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12
Source : IBEF
8. A micro view at the major sectors - Industry
The mining sector has been plagued by a policy logjam. Early resolution of these issues can provide some respite not only to the
mining industry but also others such as power generation, which will in turn speed up industrial recovery.
Higher lending rates, in addition to the unaddressed policy constraints will further lower investment demand, delaying a recovery in the
manufacturing sector. However, even if these issues are resolved immediately, no significant push to growth would be felt in 2013-14 due
to its lagged impact. Middle East helped in moderating domestic inflation during the year.
The Index of industrial production (IIP) fell
by 2.2 per cent in June as compared to a
year ago. During the first quarter of 2013-
14 (April-June 2013), industrial output fell
by 1.1 % year-on-year. Both mining and
manufacturing contracted by 4.5 % and 1.2
% respectively.
As per latest data released for GDP growth,
industrial GDP (which includes
construction) expanded 0.2 % in the first
quarter of 2013-14 as compared to 2.7 per
cent in the fourth quarter of 2012-13.
Construction output expanded 2.8 % in this
period.
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014*
IIP and its components growth
Index of Industrial Production
(IIP):Overall
Index of Industrial Production :
Electricity
Index of Industrial Production :
Manufacturing
Index of Industrial Production :
Mining
Source: Crisil reseach
9. A micro view at the major sectors – Service
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Overall GDP of India Overall GDP of world
Services GDP of India Services GDP of World
The CAGR of the services sector GDP at 10% for the period 2004-5 to 2011-12 has been higher than the 8.5% CAGR of overall GDP during
the same period. However in 2011-12 and 2012-13, there has also been a deceleration in growth rate of services sector at 8.2% and 6.6%
respectively.
A o g the ajo oad atego ies of se i es, fi a i g, i su a e, eal estate, a d usi ess se i es , hi h o ti ued to grow robustly
both in 2010-11 and 2011-12 decelerated to 8.6% in 2012-13. While in 2011- g o th i t ade, hotels, a d estau a ts a d t ansport,
sto age, a d o u i atio slo ed do to . % a d . % espe ti el , i - t ade, hotels, a d estau a ts a d t a spo t,
sto age, a d o u i atio o i ed g e a esti ated . %.
I dia s se i es g o th has ee o siste tl a o e its o e all
growth in the last decade except for 2003. The share of services in
I dia s GDP at fa to ost i eased f o . % i -1 to 56.5
% in 2012-13 as per Advance Estimates .
• Including construction, the share would increase to 64.8% in
2012-13.
• With an 18% share, trade, hotels, and restaurants as a group is
the largest contributor to GDP among the various services sub-
sectors, followed by financing, insurance, real estate, and
business services with a 16.6% share.
• Community, social, and personal services with a share of 14%is
in third place.
• Construction, a borderline services inclusion, is at 4th place with
an 8.2% share.
Source : IBEF
10. A micro view at other growing sectors
Banking and IT Telecom
HealthInfrastructure
I dia s Rs 77 trillion (US$ 1.30 trillion)-banking industry is well at par with
global standards and norms.
The country has 87 scheduled commercial banks with deposits worth Rs.71.6
trillion (US$ 1.21 trillion) as on 31 May, 2013.
Indian banking and securities companies will spend around US$ 422 billion
on IT products and services in 2013. That will imply a 13 per cent rise from
Rs. 37,300 crore (US$ 6.31 billion) spent in 2012. I
T services is the largest overall spending category at Rs 13,200 crore (US$
2.23 billion) in 2013. This ensures that IT service providers lay a strong focus
on the financial services sector, according to a study by research and analyst
firm Gartner.
Goi g ith the esti ates that Asia s thi d la gest e o o ill e o e the
o ld s thi d la gest ; a eed fo o e o ust a d ast i f ast u tu e is
inevitable.
Spanning from roadways to airways, ports to airports and power production
facilities, Indian infrastructure segment is the thrust for the development of the
nation and hence liberal Government policies coupled with deliberate
strategies to promote infrastructure spells great opportunities for engineering
and construction (E&C) companies in India.
The growth in infrastructure is expected to come on the back of a healthy
growth in the freight traffic of commodities like coal, cement, iron ore for steel
plants and fertilizers.
The Indian healthcare industry, which comprises hospitals, medical
infrastructure, medical devices, clinical trials, outsourcing, telemedicine, health
insurance and medical equipment, was valued at US$ 79 billion in 2012, and is
expected to reach US $160 billion by 2017.
The Indian healthcare sector is expected to grow at 15% y-o-y, because of
factors like rapid growth in infrastructure development, creation of demand
for higher levels of healthcare, rising awareness of users, and launch of
innovative insurance, reimbursement, and financing policies.
The healthcare equipment sector attracted 8.8 % of the total investments in
terms of deal value with an aggregate of US$ 249.01 million (20 deals).
The medical tourism industry in India is pegged at US$ 1 billion per annum,
growing at around 18 per cent and is expected to touch US$ 2 billion by
2015.
Source:http://www.ibef.org
India's mobile services market will touch Rs 1,200 billion in 2013, registering a
growth of 8 per cent from Rs 1,100 billion in 2012.
Mobile connections are expected to grow to 770 million in 2013, an 11 %
increase from 712 million connections in 2012.
Internet traffic in India is expected to reach from 393 petabytes per month
in 2012 to 2.5 exabytes per month in 2017, Cisco study.
India is expected to have 130.6 mn o ile i te et use s Ma .
The mobile value-added services (MVAS) market is expected to reach US$
9.5 billion in 2015, from US$ 4.9 billion in 2012.
The telecommunications industry attracted foreign direct investments (FDI)
worth US$ 12,856 million between April 2000 to March 2013, an increase
of 7 per cent to the total FDI inflows .
11. Increasing foreign debt with decreasing Reserve coverage
170000
225000 225000
262500
308333
340000
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
Jän.08 Jän.09 Jän.10 Jän.11 Jän.12 Jän.13
External Debt
The external borrowings of India have increased over
the years and the debt has become more short term
and therefore riskier.
Total financing needs (defined as the current-account
deficit plus debt that needs rolling over) are $250 billion
o e the e t ea . I dia s ese es a e $ illio ,
giving a coverage ratio of 1.1 times.
That has fallen sharply from over three times in 2007-08
and leaves India looking weaker than many of its peers.
Source: http://www.economist.com
12. Decreasing trend of Budget Deficit and Debt to GDP ratio
7.8
6.9
5.1
5.8
4.8
4
5
6
7
8
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Budget Deficit
Decreasing Trend of Budget Deficit
The Overall Debt to GDP of the country has been on a
declining trend.
Annual Budget Deficit of the country has been decreased by
300 basis points from 7.8 to 4.8
The Overall Investment in the country has shown a zig-
zag trend because of the global recession.
74.72 74.97
69.427
68.053 67.57
60
65
70
75
80
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Debt to GDP Ratio
Decreasing Trend of Debt to GDP
Total Investment as % of GDP
13. 0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-20142014-20152015-20162016-2017
Fiscaldeficitasa%ofGDP
Trends in Fiscal Deficit
After the initial budget target of 5.1% of GDP for the fiscal deficit, the Government revised its fiscal consolidation roadmap in
October 2012. As per the revised roadmap, the fiscal deficit of the central government will be reduced in a calibrated way from the
new target of 5.3% of GDP in 2012-13 to 3.0% of GDP by 2016-17. Similar to the previous year. when the budgeted fiscal deficit of
4.8% actually fared at 5.7% of GDP, the fiscal deficit target for 2012-13 looks unlikely to be achieved. With lower tax collections,
inability to meet divestment targets and burgeoning expenditure outgo, the Indian economy is facing considerable fiscal strain.
The Government of India is looking at taking necessary steps to widen the tax base, cut excess expenditure and have a fixed
divestment plan in place. A number of these measures have been implemented, which are already showing results.
Source : Economic survey 2012-13
14. Current Account Deficit over the years
Increasing Current Account Deficit
The Current Account Deficit and Balance of Trade
shows similar trend.
The Current Account Deficit of the country has been
increasing.
India has trade surplus only with US among the Top 5
country ( Total Trade
India has highest trade deficit with China
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13
CAD as % of GDP
Current Account Deficit and Balance of Trade
Country Export Import Total Trade Trade Balance
UAE 41.354 51.70 93.05 -10.34
USA 55.53 32.86 88.39 22.67
CHINA 13.58 67.60 81.19 -54.01
SAUDI ARABI 16.66 47.82 64.48 -31.15
SWITZERLAND 3.11 57.01 60.13 -53.90
Total of Top 5
countries
130.2 257.00 387.26 -126.74
India's Total 403.78 684.28 1,087.92 -280.5014
15. I dia s T ade ith Wo ld
I dia s E po ts I dia s I po ts
Exports Cover of India
The Overall trade of India has been on increasing trend.
The Export Cover are less than 1, since India is net importer.
Export Cover of country changed the trend during the global
slowdown.
The Export Cover of the country is more or less same level as in
2009, as the total trade increased so does the deficit.
Rising gold and oil imports have led to a trade deficit of INR
733.33 billion.
15
16. Forex Reserve
200
250
300
350
400
Mär.08 Sep.08 Mär.09 Sep.09 Mär.10 Sep.10 Mär.11 Sep.11 Mär.12 Sep.12 Mär.13 Sep.13
Forex Reserve
Forex Reserve Linear (Forex Reserve)
Reserve bank of the country has kept the Forex reserves around 280 – 290 billion dollars in the past five years.
I dia s I po t Co e as . Mo ths i Ma h .
Forex reserves has depleted by 7% in last Six months, due to fall of Rupee in the International Market.
‘BI also sold its dolla ese e i o de to stop the upee s f ee fall
As the Imports of the country are increasing, and the reserves are on same level the import cover of the country has been reduced
16
17. Other Key Parameters to measure Indian economy
Purchase Manger Index for Manufacturing and Service
A PMI data less than 50 is a sign of initial recession
The Service PMI has come down to 47.6 from 55.8, Feb data shows
the highest PMI for the year 57.5
The Manufacturing Index has come down to 48.5 from 52.8, Jan data
shows the highest PMI for the year 54.7
Industrial Production has been at desired level during early 2010 till
Nov 2011.
During Last 1 year, IIP data has shown the slowdown in the economy.
The Personal saving increases during the slowdown 17
IIP Data for INDIA
Personal Saving Vs Stock Market
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
Manufacturing Service
18. Getti g to the oot of I dia s slo do
Another consequence of the slowdown has been lower-than-targeted tax and
non-tax revenues. With the subsidies bill, fiscal deficit has increased. The
situation demanded reduced government spending to contain inflation.
Also required were steps to facilitate corporate and infrastructure
investment to ease supply.
Several measures announced in recent months are aimed at restoring the
fiscal health of the government and shrinking the CAD as also improving
the growth rate.
With the global economy also likely to recover in 2013, these measures
should help in improving the Indian economy's outlook for 2013-14.
18
Inflation Rate
• The headline inflation rate, measured by the wholesale price index
(WPI), accelerated to 5.79 per cent annually in July from 4.86 per cent
in June, taking it above the Reserve Bank of India's comfort zone of 4
to 5 per cent for the first time since March
• Depreciating rupee is a major contributor to the growing inflation,
due to the increasing price of imported oil
• Inflation in India is majorly food inflation, major contributors being
cereals, vegetables and fuel and power items
• Despite an acute slowdown in domestic demand, the manufacturing
prices have remained elevated due to rising input costs on account of
massive depreciation of rupee
The strong
post-
financial-
crisis
stimulus led
to stronger
growth in
2009-10 and
2010-11.
The boost to
consumptio
n, coupled
with supply
side
constraints,
led to higher
inflation.
Monetary
policy was
tightened,
even as
external
headwinds
to growth
increased.
Falling
savings
without a
commensur
ate fall in
aggregate
investment
have led to
widening
current
account
deficit.
WPI
inflation has
been
coming
down. But
food
inflation,
after a brief
slowdown,
continues to
be higher
than overall
inflation
Given the
higher
weightage
to food in
consumer
price indices
(CPI), CPI
inflation has
remained
close to
double
digits.
19. The vicious circle – Inflation Rate and its Impact
Inflation Rate
During Global slowdown, RBI kept the Interest Rates at very low
level, to immune the country from slowdown.
The very low interest rates resulted in high inflation rate in the
country.
To tame down the inflation rate, RBI increased the interest rate
above 9%.
As the interest rate increased the economy slowed down.
And Inflation affected the growth rate, with time lag of more than
12 months
Inflation Rate and Interest Rate
Interest Rate and Growth Rate
19
20. Tough Times
Tumbling Rupee
On August 28, 2013 rupee hit an all time low of 68.80 against US dollar to be
around 65 currently , 13% below its level 3 months ago.
In Ma A e i a s Fede al ‘ese e hi ted that it ould soo sta t to edu e its ast
purchases of Treasury bonds. As global investors adjusted to a world without ultra-
cheap money, there has been a great sucking of funds from emerging markets.
In the past three months, the stock market is down by a quarter in dollar terms
• Reduction in purchases of Treasury bonds by US federal reserve has led to
sucking of money from emerging economies
• Bond yields have increased from Brazil to Thailand
• Government bond yields in India have been rising
• On August 20th the RBI said it would intervene to try to calm bond yields of
the rupee apart from the high trade deficit.
Tumbling stock market
Rising bond yields
20
21. Reserve Bank of India and other institutional bodies are relaxing the
norms to increase the inflow of the money!
Due to poor performance and inefficient working of current
government, there are lot of reforms pending.
New Government may bring new reforms for stability of inflow of FII
Bernanke Effect: Just after QE 3 Tapering announcement, FIIs start
pulling the funds from Indian Market, which leads to 15.1% rupee
depreciation till Sep 1 2013.
The Sharp Rupee depreciation reduced the gain of the foreign
investor, forced him to withdraw the funds,
Foreign Institution Investment - Indian Stock Market
Foreign Institution Investment - Regulation
For an Individual FIIs/Sub-accounts a maximum of 10% of the total paid-up
capital or 10% of the paid-up value of each series of convertible debentures
issued by an Indian company
For total holdings of all FIIs/Sub-accounts a maximum of 24% of the paid up
capital or paid up value of each series of convertible` debentures
Both FIIs and NRIs are not allowed to invest in any company which is
engaged or proposes to engage in the following activities:
i) Business of chit fund, or
ii) Agricultural or plantation activities, or
iii) Real estate business or construction of farm houses, or
iv) Trading in Transferable Development Rights (TDRs).-10,000.00
-5,000.00
0.00
5,000.00
10,000.00
15,000.00
20,000.00
25,000.00
30,000.00
35,000.00
FII Net Investment
FII Net Investment
Bernanke Impact
QE Tapering By US
Feds
FIIs – Start Pulling
Funds from India
Rupee
Depreciation
22. Foreign Institution Investment - Indian Stock Market
Net Annualized Return is calculated to neglect the impact of rupee
depreciation!
Net Annualized Return over 10 Year period is 14.03% which much higher
than single digits growth other Markets
In last 5 years, the performance of Indian Market has been below, which
can be attributed to the pending reforms, global slow down, increasing
interest rates, poor governance
Since the Rupee is currently Trading around mid 60s, It is right time
invest in the economy, as Rupee seems to be over priced ( Crisil Report).
Historically Indian Equity has performed well in long run , hence
Investment should be done with long term perspective
After the General Election Next year, Things can change for Indian
Economy. If the Narendra Modi Comes in Power.
It would be right approach to wait till the next year, in mean time the
Rupee Volatility will also reduced.
Period Sensex
Return
Rupee Depreciation Net Return
2 Years 8.43% 10.97% -2.54%
5 Years 8.42% 5.17% 3.25%
10 Years 15.78% 1.75% 14.03%
Data till June 1,2013 is considered because of the sharp decline of the Rupee in last 3
months. All the Returns are annualized.
Annualized Return on Sensex
Exchange Rate Fluctuation
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
Over 2 Years Over 5 Years Over 10 Years
Indian Stock Market DOW Jones HANG SENG INDEX
Stock Market Returns
Recommendation
23. Foreign Direct Investment
23
Comparison Business Confidence in India and Brazil
Comparison Business Confidence in India and ChinaComparison Annual Growth Rate in India and China
Comparison Annual Growth Rate in India and Brazil
24. The Growth Rate of India has been better than the Brazil.
During last five Growth rate of Brazil has not been more
than India for even single quarter
The Growth of Chinese economy is more robust than
Indian Economy.
The China has grown faster than India except in 2009.
Currently the Business Confidence in Brazil is slightly
better than India, During last five years, Business
confidence in India has been better than Brazil for most of
period.
The Business Confidence in India has been better than
China, due better policies in the country.
24
Consumer Spending in India and Brazil
Consumer Spending in India and China
India Vs BRICS
25. Source: Tradingeconomics.com
Capital control measures: Aug 14
On August 14 the Government introduced Capital Control Measures
in response to incipient signs of capital flight. It was supposed to
reduce the amount Indian residents and firms can take out of the
country.
capital measure included:
1. Reducing the limit for Overseas Direct Investment (ODI) under
automatic route for all fresh ODI transactions, from 400% of the
net worth of an Indian Party to 100% of its net worth.
2. Reducing the limit for remittances made by Resident Individuals,
under the Liberalised Remittance Scheme (LRS Scheme), from
USD 200,000 to USD 75,000 per financial year.
3. While current restrictions on the use of LRS for prohibited
transactions, such as, margin trading and lottery would
continue, use of LRS for acquisition of immovable property
outside India directly or indirectly will, henceforth, not be
allowed
Foreign investors took fright, fearful that India might freeze their
funds too, much as Malaysia did during its crisis in 1998. This led to
further weakening of the rupee and deterioration of the Indian
economy.
Celebrated economist Raghuram Rajan was appointed as the 23rd
governor of Reserve Bank of India on 5th September, succeeding D.
Subbarao, creating a wave of optimism.
Top seven measures were announced by RBI to boost confidence
1. New bank licenses
2. Currency measures
3. SLR reduction
4. Oversease borrowing limit for banks
5. Issuance of Inflation Indexed Savings Certificates
linked to the CPI New Index
6. Priority sector lending
7. NPLs
Next day, the S&P BSE Sensex reclaimed its crucial
psychological level of 19000
The 50-share Nifty index also managed to hit its
crucial psychological level of 5600!
A ray of hope for the Indian economy: Raghuram Rajan
26. Source: Tradingeconomics.com
But the uncertainty continues..
Big Question?
• Till how long can Rajan keep the bears at bay, all because of the
negative news flow on growth data?
• Till the RBI policy meeting on September 20,the bullish
sentiment looks certain, but then what?
Upcoming centre elections
• Current government to follow populist measures to attract
votes for the centre elections due in 2014
• Measures like the Food Security Bill will raise government
spending on food subsidies to about 1.2 percent of GDP per
year from an estimated 0.8 percent currently, exacerbating
the government's weak finances
• Low tax collection and high subsidies will further increase the
fiscal deficit
Uncertainty on the economic outlook in India looms till next year
elections, when the new government comes and pushes for long
– term reforms which boost growth, control inflation and attract
foreign investment in the country
The road may be rocky in the near term, particularly for the largest deficit countries
– India and Indonesia – but we don't think this is the Asian crisis all over again," said
S&P report titled 'South And South-east Asian Economies Grapple With Growth And
External Financing Risks'.
In normal times the countries with high Current Account Deficit (CAD) and high
savings do not find it difficult to borrow in the international market, and when
markets become risk averse, economies with Current Account Deficits face external
financing pressure.
India's CAD rose to an all time high of USD 88.2 billion or 4.8 per cent of the GDP in
2012-13. For the current fiscal, the government plans to bring it down to USD 70
billion or 3.7 per cent of the GDP. High CAD is also impacting the value of rupee
which slipped to an all time low of 68.75 to a dollar in the intra-day trade.
Though 2014 Elections will impact the economy in a major way since the policies
and steps taken will affect directly and indirectly affect the Fiscal deficit, Inflation,
foreign investment s and CAD.
The smaller, more open, more trade-dependent economies in Asia, such as
Singapore and Hong Kong, have higher growth betas, or risks to growth. In contrast,
the larger, more domestically driven economies such as China, India, Indonesia, and
the Philippines have lower growth betas.
The slowdown is attributed to the ongoing market turbulence largely to
uncertainties around the timing of tapering (lowering bond purchases) by the US
Federal Reserve and recent cuts in Asian GDP growth forecasts. However the rupee
fall is a mere consequence of the above which will come back once the economy is
stabilised by growth in exports and lesser dependence on imports
The road ahead