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KT1
Keynote 
11/8/2012 8:30 AM 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

"Embracing Uncertainty:
A Most Difficult Leap of Faith"
 
 
 

Presented by:
Dan North
Lean Technology Specialist
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

Brought to you by: 
 

 
 
340 Corporate Way, Suite 300, Orange Park, FL 32073 
888‐268‐8770 ∙ 904‐278‐0524 ∙ sqeinfo@sqe.com ∙ www.sqe.com
Dan North
Lean Technology Specialist
Programmer and organizational change specialist Dan North applies principles from lean
operations and agile software development to help organizations align their technology
capabilities with their business objectives. With twenty years of experience in IT, Dan is a
frequent speaker at technology conferences worldwide, has published feature articles in
numerous software and business publications, and contributed to The RSpec Book: Behaviour
Driven Development with RSpec, Cucumber, and Friends and97 Things Every Programmer
Should Know: Collective Wisdom from the Experts. The originator of Behaviour-Driven
Development (BDD) and Deliberate Discovery, Dan is currently working on his book Patterns of
Effective Delivery, helping organizations radically improve their delivery. He blogs
at dannorth.net.
Embracing Uncertainty
Dan North
Dan North & Associates

@tastapod
Patterns of
Effective

Delivery
@tastapod
Faster
Software

Delivery
@tastapod
With apologies to George Lucas…
Fear leads to Risk
Risk leads to Process
Process leads to Hate
…and suffering and product backlogs
@tastapod
With apologies to George Lucas…
Fear leads to Risk
Risk leads to Process
Process leads to Hate
…and suffering and product backlogs
@tastapod
Understanding risk
Impact

∞

Likelihood
@tastapod

[0.0, 1.0]
Snowbird 2001
Individuals and interactions over processes and tools
Working software over comprehensive documentation

Customer collaboration over contract negotiation
Responding to change over following a plan

@tastapod
Everywhere 2012
Individuals and interactions over processes and tools
Working software over comprehensive documentation

Customer collaboration over contract negotiation
Responding to change over following a plan

@tastapod
Everywhere 2012
Processes and tools over individuals and interactions
Working software over comprehensive documentation

Customer collaboration over contract negotiation
Responding to change over following a plan

@tastapod
Everywhere 2012
Processes and tools over individuals and interactions
Comprehensive documentation over working software

Customer collaboration over contract negotiation
Responding to change over following a plan

@tastapod
Everywhere 2012
Processes and tools over individuals and interactions
Comprehensive documentation over working software

Contract negotiation over customer collaboration
Responding to change over following a plan

@tastapod
Everywhere 2012
Processes and tools over individuals and interactions
Comprehensive documentation over working software

Contract negotiation over customer collaboration
Following a plan over responding to change

@tastapod
We crave certainty!
Faith becomes religion
Complex questions become simplistic answers

Interpretation becomes dogma
We would rather be wrong than uncertain
@tastapod
So we resist uncertainty
We resist uncertainty of scope

We resist uncertainty of technology
We resist uncertainty of effort
We resist uncertainty of structure
We resist uncertainty of the future
@tastapod
Three Ages: a model of growth
1. Explore
-

optimize for discovery

2. Stabilize
-

optimize for repeatability

3. Commoditize
-

optimize for efficiency

Agile methods optimize for the Second Age
@tastapod
Agile methods optimize for certainty
Certainty gives us predictability
Predictability gives us repeatability
Repeatability gives us a feeling of safety

@tastapod
Deliberate discovery
Ignorance is your biggest constraint
You are second order ignorant (but not third!)
Ignorance is multivariate and disjoint
Some unexpected bad things will happen
@tastapod
Deliberate discovery
Ignorance is your biggest constraint
You are second order ignorant (but not third!)
Ignorance is multivariate and disjoint
Some unexpected bad things will happen
@tastapod
Deliberate discovery
Ignorance is your biggest constraint
You are second order ignorant (but not third!)
Ignorance is multivariate and disjoint
Some unexpected bad things will happen
@tastapod
Deliberate discovery
Ignorance is your biggest constraint
You are second order ignorant (but not third!)
Ignorance is multivariate and disjoint
Some unexpected bad things will happen
@tastapod
Real Options
Options have value
Options expire
Commit deliberately
“Never commit early unless you know why”
@tastapod
Embracing uncertainty
Embrace uncertainty of scope
Embrace uncertainty of technology

Embrace uncertainty of effort
Embrace uncertainty of structure
@tastapod
Why you won’t believe me
Attribution bias
Confirmation bias

Bias bias
But most of all, that craving for certainty!
@tastapod
tl; dr
Expect the unexpected

@tastapod
tl; dr
Expect the unexpectable
Anticipate ignorance
Embrace uncertainty – it’s inevitable!

@tastapod
Thanks for listening

@tastapod
http://dannorth.net
dan@dannorth.net

@tastapod

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Embracing Uncertainty: A Most Difficult Leap of Faith

  • 1.           KT1 Keynote  11/8/2012 8:30 AM                "Embracing Uncertainty: A Most Difficult Leap of Faith"       Presented by: Dan North Lean Technology Specialist                 Brought to you by:        340 Corporate Way, Suite 300, Orange Park, FL 32073  888‐268‐8770 ∙ 904‐278‐0524 ∙ sqeinfo@sqe.com ∙ www.sqe.com
  • 2. Dan North Lean Technology Specialist Programmer and organizational change specialist Dan North applies principles from lean operations and agile software development to help organizations align their technology capabilities with their business objectives. With twenty years of experience in IT, Dan is a frequent speaker at technology conferences worldwide, has published feature articles in numerous software and business publications, and contributed to The RSpec Book: Behaviour Driven Development with RSpec, Cucumber, and Friends and97 Things Every Programmer Should Know: Collective Wisdom from the Experts. The originator of Behaviour-Driven Development (BDD) and Deliberate Discovery, Dan is currently working on his book Patterns of Effective Delivery, helping organizations radically improve their delivery. He blogs at dannorth.net.
  • 3. Embracing Uncertainty Dan North Dan North & Associates @tastapod
  • 6. With apologies to George Lucas… Fear leads to Risk Risk leads to Process Process leads to Hate …and suffering and product backlogs @tastapod
  • 7. With apologies to George Lucas… Fear leads to Risk Risk leads to Process Process leads to Hate …and suffering and product backlogs @tastapod
  • 9. Snowbird 2001 Individuals and interactions over processes and tools Working software over comprehensive documentation Customer collaboration over contract negotiation Responding to change over following a plan @tastapod
  • 10. Everywhere 2012 Individuals and interactions over processes and tools Working software over comprehensive documentation Customer collaboration over contract negotiation Responding to change over following a plan @tastapod
  • 11. Everywhere 2012 Processes and tools over individuals and interactions Working software over comprehensive documentation Customer collaboration over contract negotiation Responding to change over following a plan @tastapod
  • 12. Everywhere 2012 Processes and tools over individuals and interactions Comprehensive documentation over working software Customer collaboration over contract negotiation Responding to change over following a plan @tastapod
  • 13. Everywhere 2012 Processes and tools over individuals and interactions Comprehensive documentation over working software Contract negotiation over customer collaboration Responding to change over following a plan @tastapod
  • 14. Everywhere 2012 Processes and tools over individuals and interactions Comprehensive documentation over working software Contract negotiation over customer collaboration Following a plan over responding to change @tastapod
  • 15. We crave certainty! Faith becomes religion Complex questions become simplistic answers Interpretation becomes dogma We would rather be wrong than uncertain @tastapod
  • 16. So we resist uncertainty We resist uncertainty of scope We resist uncertainty of technology We resist uncertainty of effort We resist uncertainty of structure We resist uncertainty of the future @tastapod
  • 17. Three Ages: a model of growth 1. Explore - optimize for discovery 2. Stabilize - optimize for repeatability 3. Commoditize - optimize for efficiency Agile methods optimize for the Second Age @tastapod
  • 18. Agile methods optimize for certainty Certainty gives us predictability Predictability gives us repeatability Repeatability gives us a feeling of safety @tastapod
  • 19. Deliberate discovery Ignorance is your biggest constraint You are second order ignorant (but not third!) Ignorance is multivariate and disjoint Some unexpected bad things will happen @tastapod
  • 20. Deliberate discovery Ignorance is your biggest constraint You are second order ignorant (but not third!) Ignorance is multivariate and disjoint Some unexpected bad things will happen @tastapod
  • 21. Deliberate discovery Ignorance is your biggest constraint You are second order ignorant (but not third!) Ignorance is multivariate and disjoint Some unexpected bad things will happen @tastapod
  • 22. Deliberate discovery Ignorance is your biggest constraint You are second order ignorant (but not third!) Ignorance is multivariate and disjoint Some unexpected bad things will happen @tastapod
  • 23. Real Options Options have value Options expire Commit deliberately “Never commit early unless you know why” @tastapod
  • 24. Embracing uncertainty Embrace uncertainty of scope Embrace uncertainty of technology Embrace uncertainty of effort Embrace uncertainty of structure @tastapod
  • 25. Why you won’t believe me Attribution bias Confirmation bias Bias bias But most of all, that craving for certainty! @tastapod
  • 26. tl; dr Expect the unexpected @tastapod
  • 27. tl; dr Expect the unexpectable Anticipate ignorance Embrace uncertainty – it’s inevitable! @tastapod