12.21.2021 us-action-climate-change

The Road to Clean Energy
Transformation in the U.S.
U.S. policy and action have been insufficient,
while reason exists for cautious optimism
ABSTRACT
Joe Biden’s administration has taken important
steps to address climate change as one of its main
priorities and to reengage in international
diplomacy. Can the U.S. deliver on these
expectations and fulfill its obligation as a global
leader on climate change?
R. Jay Olson
Advocate for increased action on climate change
December 21, 2021

The Road to Clean Energy Transformation in the U.S.
Copyright © by R Jay Olson 2021
Table of contents
Table of contents ..........................................................................................................................................1
Why urgent action on climate change is needed .........................................................................................2
A divided nation............................................................................................................................................2
Energy and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the U.S..............................................................................3
The future of fossil fuels ...............................................................................................................................3
The recent increase in gas prices..................................................................................................................4
The role of nuclear power.............................................................................................................................4
The Paris Accord: a bottom-up approach.....................................................................................................5
Show me the money.....................................................................................................................................5
Objective measurement and accountability matter.....................................................................................5
A few twists and turns on the path to clean energy.....................................................................................6
COP26: incremental progress made but still inadequately addresses the criticality of the climate crisis...6
U.S. policies and action remain insufficient but there is hope.....................................................................6
Can NGOs play an expanded role to advance education and debunk disinformation?...............................7
An overlooked renewable energy source that could be a game-changer....................................................7
Concluding remarks ......................................................................................................................................8

Why urgent action on climate change is needed
"The world is running out of time, and we must confront what Dr. Martin Luther
King Jr. called the ‘fierce urgency of now.” According to Dr. Martin, “Tomorrow
is today” and this holds true for anthropogenic climate change as well."
- Harad Heubaum, Director, Center for International Studies and Diplomacy
The future has arrived. Glaciers are melting. Droughts and floods are frequent and more devastating.
Our oceans are acidifying. Our coral reefs are bleaching. Livelihoods and homes are being destroyed at
an alarming rate. To prevent even greater human suffering and damage to our planet, the international
community must pull together and the U.S. must do its part to combat global warming head on.
A divided nation
While progress is being made by the U.S. it is not happening soon enough to abate dependency on fossil
fuels and transition to a friendlier, non-anthropogenic future. It’s not beyond the nation’s capability but
the changes required are monumental on multiple fronts – economics, politics and societal. Additionally,
a deeper commitment is needed overall by government at all levels, financial institutions, big business,
and the citizens of the U.S. to make global warming a higher priority.
Furthermore, the U.S. remains deeply divided on its views about human-caused, global warming and the
Paris Accord. According to a recent Pew Research study, most Democrats and Democratic-leaning
independents (85%) think protecting the environment should be a top priority for the president and
Congress while only 39% of Republicans and GOP leaners agree with this sentiment. Many citizens are
unaware of the urgency needed to address global warming or simply choose to ignore it. Regardless, the
majority of Americans are unwilling to make the necessary sacrifices needed to reduce greenhouse
gasses and, ultimately, protect the health of our planet and insure the wellbeing of future generations.
There is reason for cautious optimum, however. New policies and action by the Biden Administration,
emerging technology developments, and opportunities for the nation’s 400 plus pro-climate change and
environmental organizations to increase their influence on public opinion and government policy to
mobilize a strong call to action around the climate change crisis.

Energy and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the U.S.
Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions
• According to the U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency, CO2 accounted for about 80% of all U.S.
greenhouse gas emissions from human activities in
2019 in the U.S.
• The combustion of fossil fuels, such as gasoline and
diesel, to transport people and goods was the largest
source of CO2 emissions, accounting for about 35% of
total U.S. CO2 emissions.
• The combustion of fossil fuels to generate electricity
was the second largest source of CO2 emissions in the
nation, accounting for about 31% of total U.S.
CO2 emissions in 2019.
• In 2020, CO2 emissions were down 11% compared to
2019 in part due to COVID-19 travel restrictions. A
13% drop in motor gasoline emissions and a 38% drop
in jet fuel emissions accounted for nearly half of the
CO2 reduction.
Energy consumption
• According to USA Facts, Fossil fuels account for 79% of
U.S. energy consumption.
• The share of energy consumption from nuclear and
renewable sources has doubled since 1980 to 21% in
2020.
• Breaking down nuclear and renewable energy
consumption, 42% comes from nuclear sources, 23%
comes from biomass sources like wood and biofuels,
and 21% comes from combined wind and solar energy.
The U.S. compared to other countries
• According to USA Facts, the U.S. emitted 5.3 billion
metric tons of CO2 in 2018, making up 15% of the
world’s emissions. This represents 16.2 metric tons of
CO2 per person, ranking 3rd among the world’s top 15 gross emitters.
• In 2018, the U.S. ranked fifth among the world’s 10 largest economies for its proportion of
energy consumption coming from renewable energy and nuclear energy.
The future of fossil fuels
While the future of fossil fuels has been highly debated, many experts believe that gas and oil will
remain a component of the U.S. energy portfolio well into the middle of the century, although its role
will be diminished by as much as 80% below 1990 levels as clean energy growth continues to escalate.
A steep decline of this magnitude in the use of fossil fuels will be essential in order to reach net-zero
emissions by 2050. However, fossil fuels have been fundamental to economic growth throughout the

last couple of centuries and the transition to clean energy is exceedingly challenging, especially for
certain sectors and regions of the country highly reliant on gas, oil and coal production. According to
Philip Stovold, spokesperson for the Greenpeace Renewable Energy Initiative Global, “The energy
transition we are going through is as massive as the Industrial Revolution, but it has to happen as quickly
as the IT revolution.”
It is possible, however, that widely applied technological solutions such as carbon capture and storage
(CCS) at scale, could change the scenario. However, it is enormously energy intensive requiring twice as
much fuel to create the same unit of energy in a power station with CCS attached. This technology has
been pushed by backers in the past in the U.S., but government funding was withdrawn and it is not
viewed as an effective investment to develop and deploy CCS technology at a scale.
The recent increase in gas prices
According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, 52% of the retail price of gasoline is
based on how much wholesale crude oil costs. The rest of the cost comes from refining the oil,
plus taxes and distribution and marketing. Crude prices are high for a variety of reasons, though
industry experts say it's mainly because OPEC+ — the Organization of Petroleum Exporting
Countries, consisting of Saudi Arabia and 12 other oil-production nations, plus their allies —
have decided to keep output limited.
The White House has been pressuring OPEC+ to increase oil production, which was scaled back
dramatically in 2020 and still is below pre-pandemic levels. "While we need to take steps to
address short-term supply issues, we need to also keep our eye on the long term and the
impact of the climate — the crisis that is — we are in the middle of and ensure that we are
continuing to encourage the production and rise of renewables and the clean energy industry,"
White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki said in a recent press briefing.
The role of nuclear power
It is estimated that nuclear power accounts for around 20% of total electricity generation in the U.S.
While some experts argue that nuclear power should be expanded as a mitigating strategy to abate the
use of fossil fuels, many disagree citing high costs and high risks.
• It has been estimated that the cost of nuclear energy is four times higher than fossil fuel. And
the full cost of decommissioning, decontamination. and the storage of nuclear fuel are often not
accounted for in these estimates.
• Lead times to build nuclear plants often take decades and budget overruns are notoriously high.
• The carbon footprint of the nuclear industry is actually quite higher than many estimate when
examined from a supply chain perspective. Uranium needs to be mined, processed and
transported. Some academics have estimated it to be very similar to gas.
• Security and proliferation dynamics associated with building up a civil nuclear infrastructure are
an increasing concern (i.e., hazards posed by nuclear reactors to attack during war or terrorist
attack). And growth of the nuclear power industry is now centered in the east with countries like
China, India, Russia, Iran and North Korea aggressively expanding their nuclear power systems.
• The risks caused by natural disaster, human error and aging nuclear energy infrastructures can
lead to devastating losses of human life and negative impact the wellbeing of our planet. Think
Chernobyl in 1986 and Fukushima in 2011 as examples.

• The sticky issue of waste disposal still hasn’t been resolved. Spent nuclear fuel is currently
stored on the site of nuclear plants in pools of water or sealed in dry cask storage.
While the development of modular reactors and switching to thorium vs. uranium can potentially
reduce some concerns these are not actionable solutions as of yet. The best way to achieve net zero-
carbon emissions and ultimately save our planet, is to double down on the investment in innovation and
the development of sustainable, socially compatible energy technologies, according to some experts.
The Paris Accord: a bottom-up approach
The Paris Agreement on Climate Change grants states more
flexibility in achieving emissions reductions through nationally
determined contributions. It spells out the need for a clear roadmap
to provide sufficient amounts of climate finance. The core aim is to
keep the rise in global average surface temperatures well below 2
degrees Celsius. The ambition is to limit the temperature increase
even further to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. And
every five years, the intent is to ratchet up collective contributions
to achieve net zero emissions by 2050.
While the Paris Agreement is a positive step, there are some significant hurdles to overcome primarily
with respect to funding and accountability.
Show me the money
One of the challenges for investors is that they need to see long term signals, in order to justify their
investments. There needs to be a unified, cost-of-carbon accounting framework implemented across
economies and sectors to reduce uncertainty so investors can plan with confidence.
There have also been huge challenges in mobilizing public finance, let alone private finance. In the past,
public financing has proven to be highly successful at priming the pump for private
investment. However, there has also been a lack of confidence in local government to actually stay the
course and deliver the kind of conditions that investors require to justify ROI decisions. And many
countries (including the U.S.) are still funding large-scale fossil fuel infrastructure projects!
The good news, though, is that financial institutions are beginning to recognize that funding fossil fuels is
a bad investment and that clean energy investments can lead to a successful ROI. One reason is because
renewable energy has become highly competitive with fossil fuels. Between 2010 and 2019, solar energy
prices dropped 90%. In the U.S., the clean energy industry now employs almost 3.3 million
Americans, more than fossil fuel generation.
Objective measurement and accountability matter
Another hurdle is that measurement of greenhouse gasses is not entirely accurate and largely requires
self-reporting by member states. Climate Trace, “a global coalition created to make meaningful climate
action faster and easier by independently tracking greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions with unprecedented
detail and speed,” can be a potential solution for this problem as its technology and processes evolve.
Their mission is “to harness satellite imagery and other forms of remote sensing, artificial intelligence,
and collective data science expertise to track human-caused GHG emissions as they happen.”
Governance by the participating countries in the Paris Agreement is completely voluntary, legally
unbinding and nobody is held accountable if commitments are not met.

A few twists and turns on the path to clean energy
Former President Donald Trump officially withdrew the U.S. from the Paris Climate Agreement in
November 2020 — the only country to do so — although President-elect Joe Biden reversed that
decision on his first day in office in January 2021.
While the coronavirus pandemic led to a historic drop in emissions in 2020, this was merely a blip in the
ongoing trend of ever-climbing GHG emissions. The past three years have been the hottest on record
globally. The coronavirus pandemic is expected to adversely impact efforts to advance climate action as
the economy continues to rebound.
COP26: incremental progress made but still inadequately addresses the
criticality of the climate crisis
Some experts have billed the conference as humanity’s last chance to
support the goal to not surpass 1.5 degrees Celsius of global warming
— the temperature target inscribed in the 2015 Paris Accord.
Countries ultimately agreed to submit tougher 2030 targets next year
and to put forward long term strategies to aid the transition to net-zero
emissions by around mid-century in order to avoid the worst
consequences of climate change. More than 100 countries joined a U.S. and E.U.-led coalition to cut 30%
of methane gas emissions by 2030 from 2020 levels, a significant step towards limiting one of the major
culprits of climate change.
Additionally, the U.S. and China, the world’s two largest emitters of carbon, agreed to cooperate this
decade to prevent global warming from surpassing 1.5 degrees Celsius. The agreement lacks specific
details or deadlines but emphasizes that Chinese and American leaders will work together to boost clean
energy, mitigate deforestation and slash methane emissions.
U.S. policies and action remain insufficient but there is hope
According to Climate Action Tracker (CAT), U.S. policies and action are still “Insufficient.” However, CAT’s
report on the U.S. shows that Joe Biden’s administration has taken steps to address climate change as
one of its top priorities and to reengage in international diplomacy as a global leader on climate change.
While the Biden administration has set more ambitious targets and broad plans for climate action,
Congress needs to pass new legislation to put the U.S. on a path towards the pledged ambition levels.
The U.S. has made progress on its climate policies and submitted an improved Nationally Determined
Contribution (NDC) target submitted to the UNFCCC in April 2021), although its emissions reduction goal
and provision of climate finance fall short of meeting its fair share.
President Biden’s USD 1trillion American Jobs Plan (infrastructure bill) has been approved by Congress.
Biden’s USD 3.5trillion “Build Back Better” bill is still pending and is subject to negotiation. President
Biden has directed agencies and departments to enact climate-friendly policies across the government
and to review and address the promulgation of the climate rollbacks of the previous four years.
President Biden reaffirmed the goal to achieve net zero GHG emissions by 2050 and set up a
government-wide approach to tackle climate change, mandating the use of federal purchasing power,
property and public lands and waters to support climate action, and establishing high-level interagency
groups to facilitate coordination, planning and implementation of climate action at federal level.

He also directed heads of agencies to identify fossil fuel subsidies and take steps to stop them,
suspended oil and natural gas drilling leases in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge and revoked the
permits for the Keystone XL pipeline.
Can NGOs play an expanded role to advance education and debunk
disinformation?
According to Stanford sociology Professor Doug McAdam, sustained grassroots movement to influence
climate change policy has not developed in the U.S. While there is significant support from Americans
for action on climate change, the issue is still not seen as an immediate threat by many. Other factors
include: the relentless denial of the reality of climate change by anti-climate change forces; increasing
gridlock in Congress, making bipartisan action difficult; the lack of “ownership” of the issue by any
significant segment of the American public, in contrast to issues such as police violence against African
Americans or sexual assaults against women.
However, there are more than 400 formal climate change organizations in the U.S. These organizations,
or NGOs (non-government organizations), differ from grassroots, activist groups because they generally
favor more conventional tactics of education, lobbying and public relations over non-institutionalized or
otherwise disruptive methods. While climate change denier organizations are more numerous and
better funded, things could change. Biden’s new agenda regarding climate change could spark more
intense action by climate change and environmental NGOs. Opportunities also exist for NGOs to tap into
pent up frustration and anger about Trump’s withdrawal from the Paris Accord as well as other actions
by his Administration considered to be embarrassing or misguided.
One of the nation’s most well-established NGOs focused on
climate change and renewable energy is the Midwest
Renewable Energy Association. MREA is dedicated to expanding
renewable energy adoption through innovative programs,
renewable energy training and educational events. Its programs
and services are responsive to evolving energy issues and
empower people to make wise lifestyle choices. Each June
MREA holds the longest-running grassroots renewable energy
event in the nation bringing 11,500 plus attendees together to
learn about clean energy, connect with other like-minded
individuals and take action toward clean energy transformation.
An overlooked renewable energy source that could be a game-changer
While renewable energy sources such as solar and wind have received much attention in the U.S.,
geothermal energy has received little fanfare. According to ARPA-E, the government agency that funds
R&D efforts for advanced energy technologies, geothermal energy offers tremendous untapped
potential as an alternative to fossil fuels. “Just 0.1 percent of Earth's total heat content could meet the
world’s energy needs for two million years,” according to the agency.
While geothermal is not new, emerging technologies, such as EGS (Enhanced Geothermal Systems) and
AGS (Advanced Geothermal Systems), are now beginning to build momentum making geothermal
anywhere more feasible.
Geothermal offers a tremendous opportunity for large oil and gas companies like Chevron and BP. It's a
natural fit, as the skills required for drilling oil and gas wells are quite similar to drilling for geothermal,

and technical innovations from the shale revolution are making the economics more feasible. Most of
the heavy lifting was already done by the oil and gas industry in the last five or 10 years.
Geothermal has some major advantages over other renewables. It can be used to heat buildings much
more cost-effectively and directly than solar or wind power. You can build geothermal plants close to
population centers. And importantly, geothermal is available 24 hours a day, seven days a week, 365
days a year, whereas solar and wind are dependent on the sun shining and the wind blowing.
Some experts estimate that geothermal electricity could make up anywhere from 10 percent to 50
percent of the grid depending on how quickly it can be funded and scaled within the next decade.
Geothermal at scale, leveraging the entire oil and gas industry globally, could have a huge impact on
solving the world’s climate change conundrum, and accelerate attainment of net-zero emissions.
Concluding remarks
As stated earlier, there is reason for cautious optimistic regarding the U.S. response to global warming
and its determination to transition to a clean energy future. People have the capacity to change their
worldview, open their mind to new possibilities, and make rational choices and unselfish sacrifices. But
change of this magnitude is not easy especially when a nation is deeply divided along partisan lines and
there is so much disinformation spread by anti-climate groups and politicians denying the existence of
climate change caused by human intervention. Changing the behavior of our policy makers, our law
makers and our business leaders starts by winning the hearts and the minds of our citizens.
Please join me in the war on climate change. Together, we can make a difference! Here are a few things
you can do to help ratchet up intensity around climate change and accelerate action toward a brighter,
cleaner energy future.
● Like this paper, commit on it and share it on your favorite social media channels. Let’s
create a groundswell of interest and engagement to keep climate change top of mind.
● Share your story. If you or loved ones have been directly affected by the wrath of climate
change (e.g., loss of a home, loss of a job, etc.) please share your story. Personal accounts
of the disruption of daily life, and the angst and stress caused can help people understand
that climate change is real and it can impact their lives as well.
● If you are a U.S. citizen, use your voice and exercise your right to vote. Write to your
congressman/woman and ask him/her to back Biden’s “Build Back Better” agenda and
embrace it. Vote for the best candidate who gets it and has the courage to do the right
thing even if it isn’t the most popular among campaign supporters and voters.
● Get involved. Volunteer your time and donate to your favorite climate change
organization. Every hour and dollar spent helps advance awareness and understanding so
people can make informed choices about climate change and live a sustainable lifestyle.

12.21.2021 us-action-climate-change

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