The document discusses the themes of electoral democracy, liberal democracy, and the global recession of democracy, emphasizing the characteristics that define high-quality democracies, such as rule of law, civic participation, and responsiveness to citizen demands. It outlines the historical trends in democracy from 1974 to 2012, highlighting a peak in democratic states by 2005 followed by a decline, alongside concerns regarding the erosion of democratic principles worldwide. Factors contributing to the risks faced by democracy include weak institutions, executive abuse of power, and socio-economic challenges.

1. Electoral Democracy,
Liberal Democracy
and
The Global Recession
of Democracy

2. Themes
I. Electoral Democracy
II. Liberal Democracy
III. The Quality of Democracy
IV. The Trends in Democracy
V. Why a Recession of Democracy

3. What is
Electoral Democracy?
 A system of government at the level of the
nation-state
 A means for the people (with equal political
rights as citizens) to choose their political
leaders and (if they wish) to replace their
leaders in regular, meaningful, free, and fair
elections
 Sufficient freedom for elections to be
meaningful, free and, fair

4. Liberal (High-Quality) Democracy
1. Democracy: “Majority rule”
Popular sovereignty and control over government
Competition, participation, vertical accountability,
responsiveness
2. Liberal government: “Minority rights”
Freedom, Equality, Civic Culture
3. Republican government: “Good Governance”
Rule of law, horizontal accountability, state
effectiveness

5. Components of
Liberal (or High-Quality) Democracy
1. Liberty: Extensive freedoms of:
• Speech
• Press (print and broadcast)
• Association
• Assembly, and peaceful protest
• Movement
• Thought and belief
• Religion & religious practice
• Language, identity, cultural expression

6. Liberty (Freedom) cont.
and freedoms from:
• Torture
• Warrantless search and seizure
• Corrupt demands and impositions
• Violence and coercion by state and non-state
actors

7. Liberal Democracy 2: Rule of Law
protects rights of citizens, maintains order, & limits
power of government
• All citizens are equal under the law
• No arbitrary arrest, exile, or imprisonment
• No one is above the law
• Government power is limited; no official may
violate these legal and constitutional limits
• The courts are independent in structure and
in fact

8. Rule of Law, cont.
• Right to know the charges against you,
presumption of innocence
• Right to a fair, speedy, and public trial by an
impartial court
• No one may be taxed or prosecuted except by
a law established in advance
• No one may be subjected to torture or cruel
and inhumane treatment

9. Power is separated and dispersed among
multiple, independent branches and
institutions of government (checks &
balances)
• Executive power is limited, constrained and
scrutinized by an independent legislature,
judiciary, and other institutions
Liberal Democracy 3:
Horizontal Accountability

10. Horizontal Accountability, cont.
• Independent institutions to monitor &
control corruption & abuse of power
 Counter-corruption commission
 Ombudsman (public complaints comm)
 Parliamentary investigative committees
 Supreme audit agency (GAO)
 Prosecutors and courts
 National electoral commission
 Central Bank

11. Liberal Democracy 4:
Civilian Control of the Military, Police,
and Intelligence
• Armed forces are directed by and
subordinate to civilian elected officials and
their appointees
• Elected, civilian commander in chief
• Top military command appointments are
made or approved by civilians

12. Civilian Control of the Security Sector, cont.
• Budgets of armed forces, intelligence and
other state security agencies are reviewed,
understood, and approved by civilian executive
and legislative authorities
• Professional civilian capacity in defense
ministry, presidential (or PM) office, and
parliamentary committees to supervise
military and security agencies

13. Civilian Control of the Security Sector, cont.
• Armed forces and intelligence agencies may
not operate domestically except under
extraordinary & explicit constitutional
circumstances, with close civilian supervision
• Armed forces are non-partisan, non-political
• Police are professional, depoliticized, and
supervised and monitored by democratic,
civilian authorities

14. Liberal Democracy 5, Competitiveness
• At least two political parties with significant
representation in parliament and a
meaningful chance to win control of national
government
• Low barriers to entry of new political parties
• No gerrymandering of electoral districts
(independent commission)
• Open, fair access to the mass media for all

15. Competitiveness, cont.
• Limited or no use of government resources to
reelect ruling party
• Virtually no vote buying or other electoral
fraud
• Balanced access to party and campaign finance
 Public funding of parties and campaigns?
 Public guarantees of TV & radio air time?
 Limits on campaign expenditures?
• Over time, electoral alternation (ruling parties
lose)

16. Liberal Democracy 6, Civic Pluralism
• Numerous NGOs and interest groups represent a
broad range of interests and values in society
• NGOs and think tanks monitor the political process,
expose abuses, and lobby for political reform
• Alternative sources of information: public has
access to a variety of sources of information in the
mass media, independent of government control.
• Very limited government ownership and regulation
of the mass media
• Independent public broadcasting

17. Liberal Democracy 7,
Vertical Accountability
The people hold their agents (public officials)
accountable to them
Type 1: Electoral Accountability
 Party system is sufficiently competitive,
 Competition is sufficiently fair,
 Voters are sufficiently informed and aware of
their interests,
So that elected officeholders can be
periodically held accountable, and removed
for bad performance

18. Vertical Accountability, cont.
Type 2: Societal Accountability
• Civil society is sufficiently pluralistic, resourceful,
and independent of government,
• Mass media are sufficiently independent and
professional,
• Public is sufficiently vigilant and mobilized,
So that unpopular policies & abuses of power can
be challenged and reversed.

19. Liberal Democracy 8: Participation
Citizens take an active role in politics & the making
of public policies and decisions
• High rates of voter turnout
• Extensive public interest in and awareness of
major issues, government conduct, & party
positions on issues
• High membership rates & active participation in
civil society organizations (CSOs)
• Individuals and CSOs petition and lobby
government

20. Liberal Democracy 9: Equality
• Citizens have relatively equal political resources,
at least in education, organization, and
citizenship rights
• Women have substantial representation (ideally,
one-half) in the cabinet, parliament, and other
representative bodies
• Economic inequalities are not so severe that
they rob large groups of political voice and
power

21. Equality, cont.
• Ethnic minorities have representation in
parliament, & provincial & local legislatures, in
rough proportion to their shares of the
population
• All citizens are treated equally by government
agencies and institutions (including the
judiciary), regardless of their class, region,
religion, ethnicity, gender, party, or beliefs

22. Liberal Democracy 10: Responsiveness
Government Responds to Citizen Demands and
Preferences
• Government changes its policies in response to
clear, consistent, and fairly deliberated
expressions of majority preference
• There is substantial correlation over time between
government policies and citizen preferences and
desires

23. Responsiveness, cont.
• Aggrieved groups of citizens are able to win
redress of wrongs and abuses committed by
government
• Significant manifestations of citizen interest and
protest are able to have access to the public
agenda, and to be heard by legislative and
executive bodies

24. Liberal Democracy 11, Civic Culture
Competing parties and groups are:
• Tolerant of opposing views & groups
• Law-abiding, & respectful of the
constitution
• Peaceful, and rejecting of violence
• Willing to compromise
• Unwilling to coalesce with undemocratic,
anti-system actors

25. Civic Culture, cont.
The vast majority of citizens & groups
• Believe in the legitimacy of democracy
• Are loyal to the constitutional system
• Know their rights & obligations as citizens
• Respect the outcome of elections
• Question but respect authority
• Condemn acts of intolerance and violations of
constitutional norms

26. Liberal Democracy 12,
State Effectiveness
 The state has legitimate authority: It is widely
viewed as having the right to make and
enforce laws, exercise a monopoly of force,
and extract and distribute resources
 The state has administrative capacity: A
professional, meritocratic, honest, and
politically neutral bureaucracy is able to
regulate, tax, maintain order, and produce
public goods

27. The Dimensions of Democratic Quality
Dimension Type Measures
1. State Effectiveness Good Governance Government Effectiveness (WB)
Regulatory Quality (WB)
2. Rule of Law Good Governance Rule of Law (WB)
3. Horizontal Accountability/
Corruption Control
Good Governance Control of Corruption (WB)
Corruption Perceptions Index (TI)
4. Competition Democratic Procedure Political Rights (FH)
Voice and Accountability (WB)
5. Participation Democratic Procedure Political Rights (FH)
Voter Turnout Rates
6. Vertical Accountability Democratic Procedure Political Rights (FH)
Voice and Accountability (WB)
7. Freedom Democratic Content Political Rights (FH)
Civil Liberties (FH)
Voice and Accountability (WB)
8. Equality Democratic Content Political Rights (FH)
Civil Liberties (FH)
Gini Coefficient
9. Responsiveness Democratic Results Public Opinion Surveys

28. The Global Expansion and
Recession of Democracy
1974-2012

29. The Democratic Boom—The
Third Wave of Democratization
• In 1974, less than a third of all states were
democracies
• By 1984, there were 59 democracies (36%)
• By 1990 there were 76 (46%)
• Then the Berlin Wall came crashing down:
– 1991: 88 democracies (48%)
– 1995: 112 democracies (58%)
– 1999: 118 democracies (61.5%)
– 2005: 121 democracies (62.5%)

30. The Global Expansion of Democracy, 1974-2012

29.1%
33.5%
37.0%
45.7%
58.1% 59.9%
62.5%
60.0%
20.9%
23.6%
26.1%
30.5%
33.0%
35.9%
41.1%
45.6%
15.0%
25.0%
35.0%
45.0%
55.0%
65.0%
75.0%
Year
Electoral Democracies Liberal Democracies

31. Expansion of Liberal Democracy
About two-thirds of the world’s democracies
(77) are reasonably high-quality or “liberal”:
• electoral competition is
institutionalized, fair, and open,
• civil liberties are better protected,
• there is a rule of law
• there are low levels of political violence and
abuses or impunity by state security services.

32. The Globalization of Democracy
 During this period, democracy became a
global phenomenon. Today:
 28 of 33 Latin Am states are democracies
(85%)
 17 of 29 in Eastern Europe and FSU (59%)
 10 of 25 in Asia (40%) +(10 of 12 Pacific Island)
 17 of 49 in Sub-Saharan Africa (35%) (or less?)
 Only 3 of 19 in the Middle East

33. Democracy by Region, January 2013

100
85
63
38
83
37
21
100
67
43
21
75
22
5
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Eur/Anglo LAC EE+FSU Asia Pacific Is. SS Africa MENA
%oftotal
Democracy
Liberal
Democracy

34. Global Trends in Freedom, 1974-2012
4.47
4.31
4.24
3.85
3.64 3.48
3.22 3.30 3.31
5.05 4.84 4.76
4.35
4.08 3.89
3.61
3.70 3.69
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
Year
World Developing World

35. Regional Trends in Freedom, 1974-2012
6.19
3.81
2.37
1.94
3.70
2.62
2.42 2.39
4.42
4.19
3.86
3.51
5.45 5.36
4.44
4.41
6.50
4.50
5.17 5.17
5.28 5.32
5.50
5.16
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
Year
CEE LAC Asia-Pacific SS Africa FSU MENA

36. The Democratic Recession
 The expansion of democracy peaked in 2005
at 62.5% of all states. Since then it has
declined from 120 to 117 democracies.
 No significant gain in number of democracies
in seven years
 Seven consecutive years of declining freedom
scores, losses outpacing gains.
 Significant erosion of democracy in Africa.

37. Democratic Recession cont.
 The rate of democratic breakdown since 1999
has been nearly twice the pace of the
preceding 12 years.
 30 breakdowns or reversals of democracy
since 1999 (More than half of the total during
the third wave).
 These have come in some large strategic
states:
• Pakistan, Russia, Nigeria, Venezuela, Thailand, Ban
gladesh, the Philippines, and Kenya.

38. Ratio of Declines to Gains in Freedom, 1991-2012
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
Year

39. Breakdowns of Democracy (examples)
Type of Breakdown Number of Such
Breakdowns
Percent of all
Democracies
(171) during
Third Wave
Countries with dates of
democratic breakdown and
renewal
Breakdown
with
subsequent
return to
democracy
29 17.0%
India (1975, 1977)
Turkey (1980, 1983)
Ghana (1981, 2000)
Nigeria (1983, 1999)
Fiji (1987, 1997)
Thailand (1991,1993)
Peru (1992, 2001)
Lesotho (1994, 2002)
Zambia (1996, 2001)
Bangladesh (2007, 2008)
Philippines (2007, 2010)
Thailand (2006, 2011)
Niger (2009, 2011)
Georgia (2008, 2012)

40. Breakdowns of Democracy, examples
Type of
Breakdown
Number of
Such
Break-
downs
Percent of all
Democracies
(171) during
Third Wave
Countries with dates of democratic
breakdown and renewal
Breakdown
with no
return to
democracy
by 2011
27 15.8%
Lebanon (1975) Sudan (1989)
The Gambia (1994) Pakistan (1999)
Fiji (2000) Kyrgyzstan (1998)
Russia (2000) Nepal (2002)
Nigeria (2003) Venezuela (2005)
Kenya (2007) Mauritania (2008)
Honduras (2009) Madagascar (2009)
Mozambique (2009) Haiti (2010)
Burundi (2010) Sri Lanka (2010)
Guinea Bissau (2010) Nicaragua (2011)
Mali (2012) Maldives (2012)
56 32.7%

41. Rate of Democratic Breakdown
1974-2011
16.00%
11.72%
19.86%
31.95%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Time Period

42. Freedom before Democratic Breakdowns 1999-
2011
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
Political Rights Civil Liberties

43. Other Worrisome Trends
 The authoritarian backlash against civil society
 Fiscal disarray (weakening of democracy?) in
the West

44. Why Democracy is in Danger
1. Weak Rule of Law
 Corruption, abuse of power
 Abuse of ind rights, impunity
 Violence, criminality, lawlessness
2. Executive abuse of power;
weak constraints on executives by
constitution, parliament, civil society

45. Why Democracy is in Danger 2
3. Ethnic & religious divisions
4. Weak & Ineffective Political
Institutions
(parties, parliaments, systems of
horizontal accountability)
5. Poor Economic Performance
• Poverty, inequality, injustice
BAD GOVERNANCE

46. Trends In Political Rights, ROL, and Civil Liberties
in Africa, 2005-2011
0.50
0.51 0.50
0.49
0.47
0.46
0.48
0.42
0.41
0.41 0.40
0.39 0.38 0.38
0.54 0.54 0.54
0.53 0.52
0.51 0.51
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.45
0.50
0.55
0.60
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Political/Electoral Rights Transparency/Rule of Law Civil Liberties