How does development effect democracy

1. Comparative Democratic
Development Part I:
Conditions of Democracy
Week 3: Lecture 6
Professor Larry Diamond
Stanford University & edX.org
Winter 2020

2. Lecture 6: Political Culture
Attitudes and Values
Toward Democracy
In Asia, Africa, Latin America,
the Middle East,
And Advanced Democracies

3. Three tests of liberal vs. “Asian” values
1 'Government is our employee, the people should tell government what
needs to be done.' vs.
2 'The government is like a parent, it should decide what is good for us'
1 'The media should have the right to publish news and ideas without
government control' vs.
2 'The government should have the right to prevent the media from
publishing things that might be politically destabilizing'
1 'Political leaders are chosen by the people through open and competitive
elections' vs.
2 'Political leaders are chosen on the basis on their virtue and capability even
without election'

4. Agreement with liberal value statements, 2014-16 Asian
Barometer
Value
Statements
Japan Korea Taiwan Thai-
land
Philip-
pines
Indo-
nesia
Singa
-pore
China
“Government is our
employee” (not Govt
is like a parent)
66 44 70 70 44 49 49 57
No government
control of media (vs.
Govt should censor
“politically
destabilizing info)
73 67 60 57 73 33 55 40
Political leaders
should be chosen
through competitive
elections (vs. leaders
chosen for their
virtue and capability)
82 78 84 77 64 42 67 81

5. Burma’s Shallow democratic culture
Results of 2015 Asian Barometer
◼ 72% of Myanmar citizens think “democracy is
always preferable”
◼ But 72% do not support principles of horizontal
accountability (Indonesia 40%)
◼ 62% adhere to authoritarian values (Indonesia
50%)
◼ 83% support a role for religious leaders in
lawmaking
◼ 81% support a link between religion and
citizenship

6. What do we learn about
“Asian Values”?

7. What do we learn about “Asian Values”?
• Given low levels of political trust, surprisingly good levels of
satisfaction with the way democracy works in Asian democracies, and
steady improvement in Japan, Korea, and Taiwan
• Solid majorities believe they have a real and decently functioning
democracy
• Generally strong support for democracy, with caveats
• Only the liberal democracies (Japan, Korea, Taiwan) reject all three
authoritarian options
• Majorities in the liberal democ’s (J, K, T) support liberal democratic
values, but only minorities do in Philippines, Indonesia, Thailand, and
Mongolia
• Majoritarian and illiberal sentiments in Burma
• Levels of support for liberal democratic values in China equal or exceed
those in the four less liberal (stable) democracies of E Asia

8. Attitudes toward democracy in Latin
America

9. Percent Satisfied with the way democracy is working
in four Latin American countries
57%
57%
53%
52%
46%
48%
65%
55%
56%
61%
62%
52%
48%
47%
53%
44%
41%
51%
10%
25%
29%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
(LatinoBarometro, 1995-2016)
Argentina Brasil Chile México

10. Percent who Say
“Democracy is Preferable to any other kind of government”
82
73
77
74
71
60
67
71
66
70
75
65
62
68 67
71
75
72 73
62
37
55
57 57
53 52
46
48
65
55 56
61 62
52
48 47
53
44
41
51 51
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
(LatinoBarometro, 1995-2016)
Argentina Brasil Chile México

11. Trust in Political Parties, 2015
35.4 36.1
39.9 40
34.2
38.2
35.1
41.2
51.4
43.2
33.5
48.8
44.2
27.9
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Argentina Brazil Chile Ecuador Mexico Peru Uruguay
Lot 2.6
Some
17.4
Little 37
Nothing
41.5

12. Trust in Congress, 2015
4.4
3.4
2.5
10.2
4.4
2.6
10.5
26.7
15.2
20.9
25.9
19.9
15
38.7
39.6
40.6
43.4
41.8
34.6
37.8
31.8
26.2
36.2
30.5
21.8
36.8
43
15.5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Argentina Brazil Chile Ecuador Mexico Peru Uruguay
Lot 5.4
Some
23.1
A little
38.5
No trust
30

13. 14.1
12.4
34.9
16.8
35.1
41.7
69.1
19.1
11.0
43.1
28.0
48.6 49.7
82.7
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
Taiwan Korea Philippines Mongolia Thailand Indonesia Singapore
Percentage
%
Countries
Trust in Institutions (Political Parties and Parliament), 2010
Political
Parties
Parliament

14. Trust in the National Government, 2015
8.9
3.1
7.4
15.9
3.9
2.2
22.5
23.2
15.7
31.8
28.4
17.1
17.8
37.2
34.4
37.7
38.5
37.2
35.2
38.6
23.2
33.1
42.1
19.9
18
42.4
39.7
15.5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Argentina Brazil Chile Ecuador Mexico Peru Uruguay
Lot
9.1
Some
24.4
A little
35
No
trust
30.2

15. 29.7
35.9
43.1
21.8
62.9
51.6
85.5
32.6
22.2
43.7
35.4
54.6
56.3
85.7
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
Taiwan Korea Philippines Mongolia Thailand Indonesia Singapore
Trust in Institutions
(The Courts and The National Government)
The Court The National Government

16. How much transparency is there in the
government?
8.1
2.8
6.7
16.8
4.2
1.5
16.6
25.7
13.3
37.4
42.1
21.5
22.6
44.3
34.9
39.3
31.6
29.2
37.4
40.8
25.4
30.1
39.1
17.6
10.1
34.2
31.3
9.5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Argentina Brazil Chile Ecuador Mexico Peru Uruguay
A lot
8.1
Some
29.5
Little
34.1
No
transpa
rency
24.7

17. To what extent is a fair distribution of wealth
guaranteed in the country?
8
0.9
4.6
19.1
9.5
6.7
15.2
22.3
11.5
9
33.4
20.2
23.9
28.2
36.6
35.5
23.2
31 31
32.3 31.7
29.9
47.7
58.4
14.8
37.4
31.1
22.2
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Argentina Brazil Chile Ecuador Mexico Peru Uruguay
Strongly
guaranteed
9.1
Some
guaranteed
21.2
Little
guaranteed
31.6
Not at all
guaranteed
34.6

18. Political Efficacy, 2015
48.2
58.2
43.2
55.4
50.3
54.2
39.5
49.9
37.4
51.1
41.2
47.8
39.6
58.7
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Argentina Brazil Chile Ecuador Mexico Peru Uruguay
Politics is so complicated that isn't understood 49.9
Politics isn't complicated and can be understood 46.5

19. General Social Trust, 2015
76.3
91.6
82.7
78.1
83.2
79.4
77
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Argentina Brazil Chile Ecuador Mexico Peru Uruguay
Most people can be trusted 17.3 One can never be too careful when dealing with others 81.3

20. What Do Africans Believe about
Democracy?
Afrobarometer Round 6
2014-15

21. On average, two-thirds of Africans prefer democracy

22. Authoritarian alternatives
◼ The three authoritarian alternatives surveyed in
the Afrobarometer are :
◼ Only one political party being allowed to stand for
election
◼ The army coming in to govern the country
◼ Elections and Parliament being abolished so that the
president can decide everything

23. 60% of Africans, on average across countries
reject all three authoritarian alternatives

24. Rejection of Authoritarian Options,
18 African Countries, 2005-2015

25. Evaluating democracy in Africa
◼ We can separate pro- and anti-liberal democracy
responses by asking:
1. Government gets things done but no citizen influence vs.
government accountable to citizens
2. Choose leaders through elections vs. other methods
3. Political parties divisive vs. many parties needed
4. President monitored by parliament vs. free to act on own
5. Opposition parties examine government vs. cooperate
6. Media checks government vs. avoid negative reporting
7. Parliament makes laws vs. president does
8. President free to act vs. obey the laws and courts
9. Presidential two term limit vs. no term limits

26. Strong support for liberal democracy
% who agreed with X/9 statements
Avg for 32 countries in Africa (49,000 respondents, 2015)

27. Support for liberal democratic norms in Africa

28. Demand for democracy
◼ Demand for democracy can be measured by
evaluating responses to 4 questions:
• Whether respondents reject:
◼ Having only one political party
◼ Military rule
◼ One-man rule
• Whether respondents find democracy preferable to any
other form of government
◼ The ‘full’ measure counts where respondents are
pro-democratic in every question response
◼ The ‘average’ measure averages the number of
democratic responses across all questions

29. Supply of democracy
◼ Supply democracy can be measured by
evaluating responses to 2 questions:
• How much of a democracy is a country in a respondent’s
opinion
• How satisfied the respondent is with the way democracy
works in their country
◼ The ‘full’ measure counts where respondents are
pro-democratic in every question response
◼ The ‘average’ measure averages the number of
democratic responses across all questions

30. The demand for and perceived supply of democracy in 18 African
countries, 2005-2015 (Afrobaromter)

31. Avg gap, democratic demand vs. supply, 2005-2015

32. In South Africa, average demand for democracy is at its highest on record, but perceived supply is
at a record low

33. Religion and Political Culture
Evidence from the Arab Barometer

34. The Culturalist Argument
“There is nothing in the political traditions of the Arab
world—which are the political traditions of Islam—
which might make familiar, or indeed intelligible, the
organizing ideas of constitutional and representative
government…. The notion of popular sovereignty…,
the idea of representation, of elections, of popular
suffrage, of political institutions being regulated by
laws laid down by a parliamentary assembly, of these
laws being guarded… by an independent judiciary…--
all these are profoundly alien to the Muslim political
tradition.” --Elie Kedourie

35. Is the Problem Islam?
Freedom Scores of 43 Muslim-Majority States
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Arab
League
Non-Arab
Low
=
Freedom
2006
2008

36. Muslim Majority Countries with Experience as a
Democracy
Arab Non-Arab
Lebanon Turkey
Pakistan
Bangladesh
Indonesia
Albania
Senegal, Sierra Leone
Mali, Niger

37. “Patrimonial” tribal culture, ethnic divisions?
◼ Yes, hierarchical social relations. But are these
more unfavorable than in sub-Saharan Africa or
parts of Asia?
◼ Many Arab states are divided along ethnic or
identity lines (Iraq, Lebanon, Bahrain, Jordan),
but:
• More homogeneous countries (Egypt, Tunisia) are
no less authoritarian
• The two most divided countries in the Arab world
today—Lebanon and Iraq—are also the two with
the most vigorous democratic processes

38. Arab Public Support for Democracy
Arab Barometer, 2003-2006
(Amaney Jamal, Mark Tessler)
Question Jorda
n
Palestine Algeria Morocco Kuwait
“Despite drawbacks,
democracy is the best
systems of
government”
86% 83% 83% 92% 88%
“Having a democratic
system would be good
for our country”
93% 88% 81% 96% 93%

39. Arab Political Behaviors and Beliefs
Question Jordan Palestine Algeria Morocco Kuwai
t
Avg
Voted in the last election 59 71 45 50 23 52
Follows news about politics
often
49 78 45 49 23 56
Political Reform should be
introduced gradually
83 77 91 79 81 88
Favor “strong leader”
without elections, parliament
26 24 10 18 11 17

40. Proportion Favoring Different Models of Government,
2010-2011 Arab Barometer
Political
System
Preference
Jordan
Dec 2010
Algeria
April-May
2011
Egypt
June-July
2011
Tunisia
Oct-Nov
2011
Secular
Democracy
44% 65% 51% 69%
Democracy
with Islam
36% 20% 27% 23%
Secular
Autocracy
10% 8% 12% 10%
Theocracy 9% 7% 10% 5%

41. Islam and Democracy 1:
Religiosity
◼ Are devoutly religious Muslims less supportive of democracy?
No. Those who read the Koran every day support democracy about as
strongly as those who read it several times per week, sometimes, rarely or
never.
“At least 85 percent in each category state that (despite drawbacks) democracy
is the best system.”
And no effect (in any of the five countries) when controlling for other factors.

42. Does Religious Orientation affect democratic values?
Jamal and Tessler (2008, p. 104)
“democratic values are present to a significant
degree among Muslim Arab citizens, most of
whom support democracy, and … this is the
case whether or not an individual believes that
his or her country should be governed by a
political system that is Islamic as well as
democratic.”

43. Arab Attitudes Toward Democracy
◼ There is broad popular support for democracy
◼ Most people do not believe democracy is a
Western form of government, incompatible with
Islam
◼ Support for democracy does not necessarily mean
support for secular democracy
◼ There is a fairly even division of opinion on the
question of whether Islam should play an
important role in political affairs

44. “A democratic system may have problems, yet it
is better than other systems” (% agree, 2013)
Arab Barometer, www.arabbarometer.org
18.4
12.8
21.9
25.2
9.1
55.7
23.3 23.3
36.6 33.8
28.5
22.6
51.8
65.2
51
45.4
62.1
27.6
45.5 45.7
36.1 36.3 37.9
42.3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Algeria Palestine Iraq Jordan Kuwait Lebanon Libya Morocco Sudan Tunisia Egypt Yemen
I strongly agree 26.1 I somewhat agree 45.4 I somewhat disagree 13.6 I strongly disagree 5.4

45. Arab Barometer 2013
“Political reform must be implemented gradually rather
than immediately”
33.6
41.7
22.3
37.8
17.3
48.5
55.9
31.3
28.5
58.4
29.7
27.8
44.2 41
43.1
40.9
53.9
24.6
29.1
44.4
39.2
24.4
33.9
30.6
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Algeria Palestine Iraq Jordan Kuwait Lebanon Libya Morocco Sudan Tunisia Egypt Yemen
I strongly agree 36.4 I somewhat agree 37.3 I somewhat disagree 11 I strongly disagree 8.6

46. What explains
Support for
Authoritarian Alternatives?

47. Modernization Theory
or Democratic Socialization?

48. Six Agree/Disagree Items: Democratic Values
139. Women should not be involved in politics as much as men.
(Disagree)
141. Government leaders are like the head of a family; we should all
follow their decisions. (Disagree)
142. The government should decide whether certain ideas should be
allowed to be discussed in society. (Disagree)
143. Harmony of the community will be disrupted if people
organize lots of groups. (Disagree)
144. When judges decide important cases, they should accept the
view of the executive branch. (Disagree)
145. If the government is constantly checked [i.e. monitored and
supervised] by the legislature, it cannot possibly accomplish great
things. (Disagree)

49. 56.8
53.5
61.0 60.2
52.8
59.2
63.8
68.8
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
1987 1990 1993 1996 2001 2005 2010 2014
Percentage
%
Time Period
Trends in Democratic Attitudes of Taiwan
Mean of The Six Indicators of Democratic Attitudes

50. People with less education are
more likely to support army rule

51. Who Supports Authoritarian Options?
Percentage Point Differences in support for authoritarian options

52. Support for Democracy,
by Education in Africa, 2010-2011
72 75 77 80
84 86
81
86 85 87
95 98
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
N
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s
c
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o
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v
e
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s
i
t
y
P
o
s
t
g
r
a
d
u
a
t
e
Democracy
Always
Preferable
Reject One-
man Rule

54. Other Possible Explanations
◼ Sustained good performance legitimates regimes
(Western democracies but also Singapore)
◼ Bad governance (corruption) → loss of institutional
trust → loss of democratic legitimacy (?)
◼ Bad, abusive governance in authoritarian regimes →
democratic aspirations and beliefs (Africa, Middle
East)