Werner Baer made significant contributions to understanding Brazil's economy over five decades through his empirical, historically-informed analysis. Brazil experienced a development success based on inclusive growth and macroeconomic stability until 2011-2013, when growth collapsed amid falling commodity prices, rising debt levels, and lack of infrastructure investment. To fully recover, Brazil needs structural reforms like diversifying its economy, improving education, tackling corruption, and enacting fiscal and pension reforms, though political challenges remain. Prospects for recovery include trade surpluses and potential regional growth, but debt levels constrain interest rate policy and full reform will be difficult.
Is there a Brazilian development model? Is it broken?
IRIBA project leads Ed Amann and Armando Barrientos outline the key findings from this 3-yr research project.
Professor Armando Barrentos, of the Brooks World Poverty Institute at the University of Manchester presents new research on the effects of antipoverty transfers in Brazil. Read the full paper at: www.brazil4africa.org/publications
Comments on Labour Indicators Proposed in the FAO Rural Livelihoods Informati...ExternalEvents
The document discusses proposed indicators for measuring rural livelihoods and sustainable development goals related to smallholder productivity and income. It provides feedback on the proposed labor indicators, noting that: 1) Not all four pillars of decent work are represented; 2) Only four of the ten elements of the Decent Work Measurement Framework are reflected; 3) There needs to be a better balance between paid and unpaid work indicators. It suggests ways to improve the indicators to more comprehensively capture decent work according to international statistical standards.
Poverty, Inequality and Social Policies in Brazil: 1995-2009 UNDP Policy Centre
Since the mid-1990s, Brazil has undergone extensive reforms that have finally reversed the dismaying economic performance of the 1980s. In particular, poverty and inequality indicators have improved dramatically, especially since the late-2000s. This new paper published by the International Policy Centre for Inclusive Growth (IPC-IG) provides an overview of such recent trends and discusses the role played by four major government interventions: public education, the minimum wage law, Social Security pensions and Social Assistance transfers. Additionally, available data sets and methods for policy evaluation are also discussed. Check out more IPC-IG papers on social protection in the developing and emerging countries here: http://www.ipc-undp.org/CctNew.do?language=1&active=3
The annual Global Employment Trends (GET) report 2014 provide the latest global and regional estimates of employment and unemployment, employment by sector, vulnerable employment, labour productivity and working poverty. The report also analyse country-level issues and project trends in the labour market up to 2018.
The document discusses the economic environment and dimensions that influence business in Nepal. It outlines key components of Nepal's economic structure, including GDP, GDP per capita, economic policies, inflation rates, and levels of employment. It also examines Nepal's socioeconomic indicators such as population size, density, age distribution, labor force composition, and employment trends. The 14th economic development plan aims to transform agriculture and tourism and expand infrastructure to reach middle income status and a more prosperous, socially just nation.
How to overcome crisis and to retake the development in brazilFernando Alcoforado
Government leaders in Brazil need to understand that in an exceptional situation like the current one there is an imperative need to plan national development to retake the development of the country. The Brazilian government should elaborate an economic plan that contributes to the retaking of the development of Brazil that indicates for the population and for the productive sectors a perspective of overcoming the current crisis and retaking of economic growth. It is the inexistence of a development plan one of the factors that lead to the immobility of the private sector in the realization of investments in Brazil leading to a real paralysis. The development plan should guide and coordinate the country's companies that, organized in networks, and aided by trade, technology and credit policies, can compete successfully in the national and global economy.
Is there a Brazilian development model? Is it broken?
IRIBA project leads Ed Amann and Armando Barrientos outline the key findings from this 3-yr research project.
Professor Armando Barrentos, of the Brooks World Poverty Institute at the University of Manchester presents new research on the effects of antipoverty transfers in Brazil. Read the full paper at: www.brazil4africa.org/publications
Comments on Labour Indicators Proposed in the FAO Rural Livelihoods Informati...ExternalEvents
The document discusses proposed indicators for measuring rural livelihoods and sustainable development goals related to smallholder productivity and income. It provides feedback on the proposed labor indicators, noting that: 1) Not all four pillars of decent work are represented; 2) Only four of the ten elements of the Decent Work Measurement Framework are reflected; 3) There needs to be a better balance between paid and unpaid work indicators. It suggests ways to improve the indicators to more comprehensively capture decent work according to international statistical standards.
Poverty, Inequality and Social Policies in Brazil: 1995-2009 UNDP Policy Centre
Since the mid-1990s, Brazil has undergone extensive reforms that have finally reversed the dismaying economic performance of the 1980s. In particular, poverty and inequality indicators have improved dramatically, especially since the late-2000s. This new paper published by the International Policy Centre for Inclusive Growth (IPC-IG) provides an overview of such recent trends and discusses the role played by four major government interventions: public education, the minimum wage law, Social Security pensions and Social Assistance transfers. Additionally, available data sets and methods for policy evaluation are also discussed. Check out more IPC-IG papers on social protection in the developing and emerging countries here: http://www.ipc-undp.org/CctNew.do?language=1&active=3
The annual Global Employment Trends (GET) report 2014 provide the latest global and regional estimates of employment and unemployment, employment by sector, vulnerable employment, labour productivity and working poverty. The report also analyse country-level issues and project trends in the labour market up to 2018.
The document discusses the economic environment and dimensions that influence business in Nepal. It outlines key components of Nepal's economic structure, including GDP, GDP per capita, economic policies, inflation rates, and levels of employment. It also examines Nepal's socioeconomic indicators such as population size, density, age distribution, labor force composition, and employment trends. The 14th economic development plan aims to transform agriculture and tourism and expand infrastructure to reach middle income status and a more prosperous, socially just nation.
How to overcome crisis and to retake the development in brazilFernando Alcoforado
Government leaders in Brazil need to understand that in an exceptional situation like the current one there is an imperative need to plan national development to retake the development of the country. The Brazilian government should elaborate an economic plan that contributes to the retaking of the development of Brazil that indicates for the population and for the productive sectors a perspective of overcoming the current crisis and retaking of economic growth. It is the inexistence of a development plan one of the factors that lead to the immobility of the private sector in the realization of investments in Brazil leading to a real paralysis. The development plan should guide and coordinate the country's companies that, organized in networks, and aided by trade, technology and credit policies, can compete successfully in the national and global economy.
The document analyzes Zimbabwe's labor market dynamics and prospects for recovery. It discusses:
1) Zimbabwe's labor market has historically been dualistic with a small formal sector and large informal sector. The economy contracted significantly from 1997-2008 which increased unemployment and poverty.
2) To promote recovery, the document recommends policies like rehabilitating national statistics collection, revitalizing education and training, developing infrastructure, managing return of skilled diaspora, and exploiting comparative economic advantages.
3) Implementing comprehensive labor market and economic reforms could help Zimbabwe address high unemployment and underemployment by strengthening linkages between the labor market and other sectors of the economy.
This document summarizes a paper analyzing Cuba's transition to a services-centered economy. It notes that services now make up around 80% of Cuba's GDP, with health services growing rapidly. Exports of professional services like doctors have allowed some GDP growth but also have limitations as they have few linkages to other sectors. For sustainable development, Cuba will need complementary industrial policies to transform and diversify its services sectors while also respecting the "law of value" in both domestic and international trade.
The document discusses Ethiopia's developmental state model and its focus on distribution. It makes three key points:
1. The EPRDF has always been concerned with distribution, not just economic growth. However, population growth and the developmental state model have created new risks requiring different distribution approaches.
2. The developmental state is in tension with real federalism and ethnic politics in Ethiopia. Distribution is increasingly shaped by ethnic concerns.
3. The central challenges facing Ethiopia of providing livelihoods and defining the role of ethnicity in politics are not new, but are manifestations of long-standing issues. The EPRDF was unable to resolve these, and the developmental state model may not be compatible with real
In order to reactivate economic growth, to face the current commercial war in the world economy and prevent the country from suffering the consequences of the inevitable explosion of the world debt, it´s need to replace the neoliberal economic model that has devastated the Brazilian economy since 1990 and, above all, , after 2014, by the national development model of selective opening of the Brazilian economy that should be put into practice based on the planning of the national economy that would ensure economic growth and the development of the country on a sustainable basis. Without the adoption of these measures, Brazil will move towards inevitable economic and social ruin with serious repercussions of a political nature.
This document outlines draft terms of reference for a study on regional trade in agriculture in Kenya. The study aims to: (1) analyze trends in regional agricultural trade and its relationship to food security and rural livelihoods in Kenya, (2) identify the scale and composition of informal agricultural trade, and (3) develop policy recommendations to leverage regional trade to improve food security and rural livelihoods in line with Kenya's Vision 2030 goals. The proposed methodology includes literature reviews, data collection, expert consultations, and stakeholder dialogues. Key issues to be examined include trade trends, food security, livelihoods, relevant policies, and linkages between regional trade and socioeconomic outcomes.
Presentation on the OECD Territorial Review of Peru
More information: http://www.oecd.org/publications/oecd-territorial-reviews-peru-2016-9789264262904-en.htm
The contraction of 0.2% of GDP in the first quarter of 2019, the first decline since 2016, shows, on the one hand, the Bolsonaro government's incompetence in not adopting the measures required to raise household consumption (C) and increase the public and private investment (I).
Brazil has used various economic strategies to promote growth and development. These include fiscal stimulus strategies to increase infrastructure spending, social welfare programs to reduce poverty, and trade policies to protect domestic industries. Brazil has also liberalized its economy through trade agreements and reforms to attract foreign investment. As a result of these strategies, Brazil has experienced increasing GDP growth rates and structural changes to employment away from agriculture and toward services. However, globalization has also increased inequality and environmental pressures that Brazil works to address through continued economic development strategies.
Gauteng City Region Presentation Roland HendricksRoland2015
The document summarizes a presentation on ensuring safety in communities through prevention, intervention, and education regarding risks (PIER). It discusses the rapid growth of urban populations globally and in South Africa's Gauteng City Region (GCR). Key challenges for PIER in the GCR include maintaining political support for safety initiatives and ensuring disaster management receives adequate recognition. The strategic importance of PIER is to provide leadership and initiate policy around community safety in the province and GCR through collaboration with stakeholders.
Brazil experienced solid economic growth from 2000-2015, driven initially by rising commodity prices and Chinese demand. However, growth has slowed recently due to declining commodity prices and a contracting economy. Key developments over this period include a significant reduction in poverty through social programs, rising wages that outpaced productivity growth, and challenges in transitioning to a more productive and competitive economy as population growth declines.
The document summarizes Kenya's trade policymaking process and stakeholder engagement. Key institutions like the Ministry of Trade and various government ministries are involved in developing trade policy. Stakeholders like the private sector, civil society organizations, and others provide inputs through mechanisms like the National Committee on the WTO. While consultative processes exist, non-state actors feel their influence remains limited and participation is mostly confined to information sharing rather than decision-making.
The document summarizes Uganda's trade policymaking process. It discusses Uganda's participation in international and regional trade agreements. It outlines Uganda's key trade partners and export/import trends. It then describes Uganda's inclusive trade policymaking index and the roles of various government institutions and stakeholders like ministries, private sector, and civil society organizations in developing and implementing trade policy. The trade policy drafting process involved background research, stakeholder consultations, and revisions based on feedback from national trade sector review conferences before cabinet approval.
The document discusses the economic environment and its impact on businesses. It defines economic environment as the economic factors that affect business operations, including the system, policies, nature of the economy, trade cycles, resources, income levels, and more.
The key elements of economic environment are: 1) economic conditions like income, demand, business cycles 2) the economic system like capitalism, socialism, mixed 3) economic policies set by government 4) the international economic situation and 5) economic legislation. It also discusses factors that influence economic conditions like GDP, inflation, and industry growth.
The neoliberal economic model implemented in Brazil since 1990 has led to economic bankruptcy and social devastation in the country. This model has been shown to be unfeasible and has failed under multiple presidents. The current economic recession, deindustrialization, insolvency of government entities, high public debt, business bankruptcies and mass unemployment demonstrate the failure of this model. The neoliberal model should be replaced with a national economic development model focused on reducing interest rates, increasing infrastructure investment, controlling the exchange rate and capital flows, increasing exports, and prioritizing policies that encourage sustainable growth and reduce inequality.
The measures taken by the Michel Temer government are timid because the Constitutional Amendment Bill (PEC 241) does not solve the problem of public accounts. No measures were proposed by the government Michel Temer to combat the economic stagnation that tends to deepen in the next years. PEC 241 and the program of concessions for private sector participation in investments in the country's logistics infrastructure are insufficient to create the environment conducive to private investment at the moment in Brazil. Government leaders in Brazil need to understand that in an exceptional situation like this at the moment there is an imperative need to plan national development. The Brazilian government should elaborate an economic plan that contributes to the resumption of the development of Brazil that indicates for the population and for the productive sectors a perspective of retaking of economic growth.
Brazil facing internal economic problems and the ruin of the world economyFernando Alcoforado
Brazil faces two major obstacles to its development: 1) the neoliberalism that has been devastating the country since 1990; and 2) the process of ruining the world economy. The economic model. It is urgent that the Brazilian State take the reins of the national economy by abandoning the failed neoliberal economic model to reactivate the Brazilian economy and full employment. Brazil should fight in international fora for the establishment of a stable international financial system not subordinated to financial capital and the establishment of a democratic world government that, in addition to promoting economic ordering on a world scale, should create the conditions to meet the great challenges of the world. humanity in the 21st century.
Strategies needed to brazil facing current economic crisisFernando Alcoforado
The document outlines strategies needed for Brazil to address its current economic, social, and environmental crises. It identifies key problems such as regional inequality, slowing economic growth, high taxes, and corruption. Proposed strategies include decentralizing investment, reducing the tax burden, improving infrastructure, and adopting anti-corruption reforms. The strategies aim to strengthen Brazil's economy, overcome social issues like income inequality, and address environmental challenges through sustainable development.
The NBER Working Paper Series at 20,000 - James PoterbaNBER
This document summarizes the origin and evolution of the NBER Working Paper series from its beginning in 1972 to the present. It started as an outlet for NBER research and has grown tremendously over time. Some key points:
- The first working paper was published in June 1973 and there were only 3 papers in the first month.
- Growth accelerated after Martin Feldstein became NBER President in 1977, with over 200 papers published in 1981.
- There are now over 20,000 working papers published and about 5.5 million downloads per year from around the world.
- The most popular papers focus on topics like financial crises, economic growth, and corporate governance.
Manuel Buchholz. Caps on banks’ leverage and domestic credit after the crisisEesti Pank
Caps on banks' leverage prior to the 2008 financial crisis may have stabilized lending to the private sector after the crisis. The study uses a differences-in-differences approach to compare real credit growth in countries that implemented leverage caps before 2008 to those that did not, looking at the period before and after the crisis. Preliminary analysis suggests countries with pre-crisis leverage caps experienced smaller declines in lending after 2008. The empirical model controls for other country-specific factors to isolate the effect of the leverage caps. Results could provide evidence on whether macroprudential policies help make financial downturns less severe.
The document analyzes Zimbabwe's labor market dynamics and prospects for recovery. It discusses:
1) Zimbabwe's labor market has historically been dualistic with a small formal sector and large informal sector. The economy contracted significantly from 1997-2008 which increased unemployment and poverty.
2) To promote recovery, the document recommends policies like rehabilitating national statistics collection, revitalizing education and training, developing infrastructure, managing return of skilled diaspora, and exploiting comparative economic advantages.
3) Implementing comprehensive labor market and economic reforms could help Zimbabwe address high unemployment and underemployment by strengthening linkages between the labor market and other sectors of the economy.
This document summarizes a paper analyzing Cuba's transition to a services-centered economy. It notes that services now make up around 80% of Cuba's GDP, with health services growing rapidly. Exports of professional services like doctors have allowed some GDP growth but also have limitations as they have few linkages to other sectors. For sustainable development, Cuba will need complementary industrial policies to transform and diversify its services sectors while also respecting the "law of value" in both domestic and international trade.
The document discusses Ethiopia's developmental state model and its focus on distribution. It makes three key points:
1. The EPRDF has always been concerned with distribution, not just economic growth. However, population growth and the developmental state model have created new risks requiring different distribution approaches.
2. The developmental state is in tension with real federalism and ethnic politics in Ethiopia. Distribution is increasingly shaped by ethnic concerns.
3. The central challenges facing Ethiopia of providing livelihoods and defining the role of ethnicity in politics are not new, but are manifestations of long-standing issues. The EPRDF was unable to resolve these, and the developmental state model may not be compatible with real
In order to reactivate economic growth, to face the current commercial war in the world economy and prevent the country from suffering the consequences of the inevitable explosion of the world debt, it´s need to replace the neoliberal economic model that has devastated the Brazilian economy since 1990 and, above all, , after 2014, by the national development model of selective opening of the Brazilian economy that should be put into practice based on the planning of the national economy that would ensure economic growth and the development of the country on a sustainable basis. Without the adoption of these measures, Brazil will move towards inevitable economic and social ruin with serious repercussions of a political nature.
This document outlines draft terms of reference for a study on regional trade in agriculture in Kenya. The study aims to: (1) analyze trends in regional agricultural trade and its relationship to food security and rural livelihoods in Kenya, (2) identify the scale and composition of informal agricultural trade, and (3) develop policy recommendations to leverage regional trade to improve food security and rural livelihoods in line with Kenya's Vision 2030 goals. The proposed methodology includes literature reviews, data collection, expert consultations, and stakeholder dialogues. Key issues to be examined include trade trends, food security, livelihoods, relevant policies, and linkages between regional trade and socioeconomic outcomes.
Presentation on the OECD Territorial Review of Peru
More information: http://www.oecd.org/publications/oecd-territorial-reviews-peru-2016-9789264262904-en.htm
The contraction of 0.2% of GDP in the first quarter of 2019, the first decline since 2016, shows, on the one hand, the Bolsonaro government's incompetence in not adopting the measures required to raise household consumption (C) and increase the public and private investment (I).
Brazil has used various economic strategies to promote growth and development. These include fiscal stimulus strategies to increase infrastructure spending, social welfare programs to reduce poverty, and trade policies to protect domestic industries. Brazil has also liberalized its economy through trade agreements and reforms to attract foreign investment. As a result of these strategies, Brazil has experienced increasing GDP growth rates and structural changes to employment away from agriculture and toward services. However, globalization has also increased inequality and environmental pressures that Brazil works to address through continued economic development strategies.
Gauteng City Region Presentation Roland HendricksRoland2015
The document summarizes a presentation on ensuring safety in communities through prevention, intervention, and education regarding risks (PIER). It discusses the rapid growth of urban populations globally and in South Africa's Gauteng City Region (GCR). Key challenges for PIER in the GCR include maintaining political support for safety initiatives and ensuring disaster management receives adequate recognition. The strategic importance of PIER is to provide leadership and initiate policy around community safety in the province and GCR through collaboration with stakeholders.
Brazil experienced solid economic growth from 2000-2015, driven initially by rising commodity prices and Chinese demand. However, growth has slowed recently due to declining commodity prices and a contracting economy. Key developments over this period include a significant reduction in poverty through social programs, rising wages that outpaced productivity growth, and challenges in transitioning to a more productive and competitive economy as population growth declines.
The document summarizes Kenya's trade policymaking process and stakeholder engagement. Key institutions like the Ministry of Trade and various government ministries are involved in developing trade policy. Stakeholders like the private sector, civil society organizations, and others provide inputs through mechanisms like the National Committee on the WTO. While consultative processes exist, non-state actors feel their influence remains limited and participation is mostly confined to information sharing rather than decision-making.
The document summarizes Uganda's trade policymaking process. It discusses Uganda's participation in international and regional trade agreements. It outlines Uganda's key trade partners and export/import trends. It then describes Uganda's inclusive trade policymaking index and the roles of various government institutions and stakeholders like ministries, private sector, and civil society organizations in developing and implementing trade policy. The trade policy drafting process involved background research, stakeholder consultations, and revisions based on feedback from national trade sector review conferences before cabinet approval.
The document discusses the economic environment and its impact on businesses. It defines economic environment as the economic factors that affect business operations, including the system, policies, nature of the economy, trade cycles, resources, income levels, and more.
The key elements of economic environment are: 1) economic conditions like income, demand, business cycles 2) the economic system like capitalism, socialism, mixed 3) economic policies set by government 4) the international economic situation and 5) economic legislation. It also discusses factors that influence economic conditions like GDP, inflation, and industry growth.
The neoliberal economic model implemented in Brazil since 1990 has led to economic bankruptcy and social devastation in the country. This model has been shown to be unfeasible and has failed under multiple presidents. The current economic recession, deindustrialization, insolvency of government entities, high public debt, business bankruptcies and mass unemployment demonstrate the failure of this model. The neoliberal model should be replaced with a national economic development model focused on reducing interest rates, increasing infrastructure investment, controlling the exchange rate and capital flows, increasing exports, and prioritizing policies that encourage sustainable growth and reduce inequality.
The measures taken by the Michel Temer government are timid because the Constitutional Amendment Bill (PEC 241) does not solve the problem of public accounts. No measures were proposed by the government Michel Temer to combat the economic stagnation that tends to deepen in the next years. PEC 241 and the program of concessions for private sector participation in investments in the country's logistics infrastructure are insufficient to create the environment conducive to private investment at the moment in Brazil. Government leaders in Brazil need to understand that in an exceptional situation like this at the moment there is an imperative need to plan national development. The Brazilian government should elaborate an economic plan that contributes to the resumption of the development of Brazil that indicates for the population and for the productive sectors a perspective of retaking of economic growth.
Brazil facing internal economic problems and the ruin of the world economyFernando Alcoforado
Brazil faces two major obstacles to its development: 1) the neoliberalism that has been devastating the country since 1990; and 2) the process of ruining the world economy. The economic model. It is urgent that the Brazilian State take the reins of the national economy by abandoning the failed neoliberal economic model to reactivate the Brazilian economy and full employment. Brazil should fight in international fora for the establishment of a stable international financial system not subordinated to financial capital and the establishment of a democratic world government that, in addition to promoting economic ordering on a world scale, should create the conditions to meet the great challenges of the world. humanity in the 21st century.
Strategies needed to brazil facing current economic crisisFernando Alcoforado
The document outlines strategies needed for Brazil to address its current economic, social, and environmental crises. It identifies key problems such as regional inequality, slowing economic growth, high taxes, and corruption. Proposed strategies include decentralizing investment, reducing the tax burden, improving infrastructure, and adopting anti-corruption reforms. The strategies aim to strengthen Brazil's economy, overcome social issues like income inequality, and address environmental challenges through sustainable development.
The NBER Working Paper Series at 20,000 - James PoterbaNBER
This document summarizes the origin and evolution of the NBER Working Paper series from its beginning in 1972 to the present. It started as an outlet for NBER research and has grown tremendously over time. Some key points:
- The first working paper was published in June 1973 and there were only 3 papers in the first month.
- Growth accelerated after Martin Feldstein became NBER President in 1977, with over 200 papers published in 1981.
- There are now over 20,000 working papers published and about 5.5 million downloads per year from around the world.
- The most popular papers focus on topics like financial crises, economic growth, and corporate governance.
Manuel Buchholz. Caps on banks’ leverage and domestic credit after the crisisEesti Pank
Caps on banks' leverage prior to the 2008 financial crisis may have stabilized lending to the private sector after the crisis. The study uses a differences-in-differences approach to compare real credit growth in countries that implemented leverage caps before 2008 to those that did not, looking at the period before and after the crisis. Preliminary analysis suggests countries with pre-crisis leverage caps experienced smaller declines in lending after 2008. The empirical model controls for other country-specific factors to isolate the effect of the leverage caps. Results could provide evidence on whether macroprudential policies help make financial downturns less severe.
This document summarizes a presentation by Dr. Raghuram Rajan about his book "Fault Lines". It discusses how political and economic fault lines between countries, as well as within financial systems, contributed to the 2008 global financial crisis. These fault lines included rising inequality, trade imbalances, different types of financial systems interacting, and politicians pushing easy credit as an alternative to difficult long-term solutions. When these fault lines converged in the US housing market, it amplified risks and led to crisis. The summary also examines issues like export-led growth strategies, foreign financing of developing economies, weak social safety nets, and the role of central banks in successive bubbles.
A credit crisis occurs when the availability of loans decreases or the cost of loans increases suddenly. It is often caused by a period of reckless lending that results in losses for lenders when borrowers default on loans. The 2007-2008 global financial crisis began as a subprime mortgage crisis in the United States, where heavy lending and defaults on housing loans starting in 2006 led to over $1.3 trillion in subprime mortgages outstanding by 2007. Major banks and financial institutions reported over $435 billion in losses by mid-2008. Central banks provided loans to increase liquidity as banks became unwilling or unable to lend, while governments announced bank rescue packages worth hundreds of billions of dollars.
The document discusses practical computing issues that arise when working with large datasets. It begins by noting that many statistical analyses can be done on a single laptop. It then discusses storing very large datasets, which may require terabytes of storage. The document outlines some basic computing concepts for working with big data, including software engineering practices, databases, and distributed computing.
High-Dimensional Methods: Examples for Inference on Structural EffectsNBER
This document describes a study that uses high-dimensional methods to estimate the effect of 401(k) eligibility on measures of accumulated assets. It begins by outlining the baseline model and notes areas for improvement, such as controlling for income. It then discusses using regularization like LASSO for variable selection in high-dimensional settings. The document explores more flexible specifications by generating many interaction and polynomial terms but notes the need for dimension reduction. It describes using LASSO to select important variables from a large set. The results select a parsimonious set of variables and estimate similar 401(k) effects as the baseline.
The document discusses various applications of dimension reduction techniques to extract low-dimensional representations from high-dimensional data for purposes of prediction, descriptive analysis, and input into subsequent causal analysis. It provides examples of such applications using Google search data, genetic data, medical claims data, credit scores, online purchases, and congressional roll call votes. It also discusses issues around text as data, including bag-of-words representations and the use of automated and manual steps in text analysis.
Big Data analysis involves building predictive models from high-dimensional data using techniques like variable selection, cross-validation, and regularization to avoid overfitting. The document discusses an example analyzing web browsing data to predict online spending, highlighting challenges with large numbers of variables. It also covers summarizing high-dimensional data through dimension reduction and model building for prediction versus causal inference.
Econometrics of High-Dimensional Sparse ModelsNBER
The document discusses high-dimensional sparse econometric models where the number of predictors (p) is much larger than the sample size (n). It outlines an approach for estimating regression functions using penalization methods like the LASSO. Specifically, it discusses:
1. Using the LASSO estimator to minimize squared errors while penalizing the l1-norm of coefficients, inducing sparsity.
2. Choosing the optimal penalty level as a function of the error variance and sample size. Variants like the square-root LASSO provide a tuning-free approach.
3. Examples showing how sparse approximations can better capture patterns in population data than traditional low-dimensional approximations.
RAGHURAM RAJAN COMBATTING INDIAN ECONOMY and INFLATIONBidhan Pradhan
RAGHURAM RAJAN ROLE IN COMBATTING INDIAN ECONOMY and INFLATION.
Exquisite information and details. Very helpful. Project on Raghuram rajan and his role.
Raghuram Rajan is an Indian economist who has served as the Chief Economic Adviser to the Government of India and as the Governor of the Reserve Bank of India. He received degrees from IIT Delhi and IIM Ahmedabad and joined the faculty of the University of Chicago Booth School of Business. Rajan has authored several books and received numerous honors including being named one of the top 10 economists in the world. As Governor of RBI from 2013 to 2016, he helped stabilize inflation and addressed challenges like banking sector stress and stimulating economic growth.
Subprime Meltdown: From U.S. Liquidity Crisis to Global Recessioncharlesbrownell
The document summarizes how loose lending standards for subprime mortgages, encouraged by government policies, led to a housing bubble and eventual financial crisis. It describes how banks took on risky loans but avoided liability by selling them to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac through securitization. When housing prices fell and borrowers defaulted, the effects rippled through the global financial system due to the widespread distribution of mortgage-backed securities.
Over the last 10 years, 40 million Brazilians have been lifted out of poverty. The country has achieved inclusive growth, with declining rates of inequality and low levels of unemployment. This presentation looks at the key factors behind Brazil's development and argues that this is based on a distinctive model. For more information, see www.Brazil4Africa.org
WIDER knowledge and Agenda 2030 challengesUNU-WIDER
UNU-WIDER presented on building knowledge to support the 2030 development agenda and challenges in monitoring progress. Key points:
1. UNU-WIDER research relates to all SDG targets and supports development priorities. Examples include projects on aid effectiveness, African growth and poverty, and global income inequality.
2. Monitoring the 2030 agenda faces data challenges like gaps, lack of gender disaggregation, technical difficulties in measurement, and political obstacles. UNU-WIDER supports capacity for reliable data.
3. Success requires economic transformation, improved livelihoods, and reduced inequality. Strategic choices are needed from governments and development partners to mobilize resources and build local capacity for sustainable development.
I mars besökte Salil Shetty – som leder den globala millenniemålskampanjen - Stockholm. Vid besöket mötte han bland annat riksdagsledamöter och tjänstemän vid Sida. Ta del av hans presentaiton.
Salil Shettys Mdg Presentation Stockholm March 2010André Mkandawire
This document discusses progress towards achieving the Millennium Development Goals. It notes that over 400 million people have been lifted out of poverty since 2000 and there have been advances in reducing child mortality, increasing access to education, and fighting diseases. Some of the poorest countries are on track to meet several goals. Success stories include significant reductions in child mortality, hunger, and increases in food production and school enrollment in several African countries. However, challenges remain due to the financial crisis, food and climate crises, and governance problems. Meeting the MDGs will require increased funding and prioritization of resources towards achieving the goals. The document calls for accelerating progress through local action, accountability, and a breakthrough action plan to be agreed at
September 2010 - Getting ready for the next wave of technologyFGV Brazil
The Brazilian Economy is one of the oldest publications for expert economic analysis of both the Brazilian and international economies. Through this publication, FGV’s Brazilian Institute of Economics and Finance (FGV/IBRE) compares different periods of the economy, assessing both macroeconomic considerations and scenarios related to finance, administration, marketing, management, insurance, statistics, and price indices.
For more information, and Brazilian economic index results, visit: http://bit.ly/1EA1Loz
Social Protection, Economic Growth, Poverty and Inequality in Brazil?UNDP Policy Centre
Presentation by Fabio Veras Soares (IPC-IG) at the Conference on Social Protection, Economic Growth, Poverty and Inequality in South Africa: Lessons from the BRICS- UNDP and National Planning Commission of South Africa. September 2011.
The overall goal of FAO's Globally Important Agricultural Heritage System initiative is to identify and safeguard eco-friendly traditional farm practices, associated landscapes, agricultural biodiversity, and knowledge systems of local communities. The initiative aims to reduce food loss and waste, which is currently around 14% of total food production globally. A new online platform will serve as a gateway with information on measurement, reduction policies, alliances and examples of successful models to reduce food loss and waste across different regions and countries. Reducing food loss and waste can benefit food security, reduce greenhouse gas emissions, lessen pressure on land and water resources, and promote economic growth.
Economies around the world face headwinds to rapid growth: volatile commodity prices, slowing trade and sluggish productivity growth. What are the critical drivers of competitiveness and productivity in France, Europe and elsewhere? How can we ensure that growth is both robust and socially inclusive? What will be the impact of the latest technologies on lives and livelihoods?
Presentation made by World Economic Forum
This document provides an introduction and overview of macroeconomics. It defines key concepts in macroeconomics like stocks and flows, equilibrium and disequilibrium. It outlines the development of macroeconomics from classical economists to Keynes and modern macroeconomics. It also discusses the goals of macroeconomic policy like full employment and price stability. The document concludes by discussing tools used in macroeconomic policy including fiscal policy and monetary policy.
This document provides a summary and analysis of the economic paths taken by Brazil and Argentina in recent decades. While both countries faced issues like populism, hyperinflation, and debt crises, their responses differed in important ways. Brazil consolidated its framework of floating exchange rates and inflation targets using high interest rates, while Argentina abandoned targets and retained control of exchange rates and slashed interest rates. The Argentine approach led to problems like high inflation and undermining of investment rules. However, Argentina was also able to increase domestic savings more than Brazil. The document analyzes factors contributing to Argentina's recovery after 2002, such as currency devaluation, loose monetary policy, and reforms, though these approaches also carried long-term risks.
The document is a chapter from an economics textbook on poverty, inequality, and development. It discusses measuring and understanding poverty and inequality, including concepts like Lorenz curves and Gini coefficients. It also examines the relationship between economic growth, poverty reduction, and changes in inequality. Key policies for addressing poverty are outlined, such as redistributing assets, progressive taxation, and direct transfers to the poor. The chapter includes country-level data and case studies to illustrate these concepts.
Unemployment Problem and Global Financing Related to COVID-19 EpidemicVedat Akman
AKMAN HÜSEYİN VEDAT,KIZIL CEVDET (2020). Unemployment Problem and Global Financing Related to COVID-19 Epidemic. International Asian Congress of Contemporary Sciences - IV (Tam Metin Bildiri/Sözlü Sunum)
Poverty alleviation strategies - use of fiscal instruments and other public p...ROBERTO VILLARREAL
This presentation analyzes in a stylized fashion the use of fiscal instruments, particularly taxes, grants and subsidies, for the aim of reducing poverty. It is argued that the adequate use of these instruments combined with other public policies for social equity and inclusion are conducive to poverty eradication.
The economic policies of the 1990s in Brazil led to both positive and negative social impacts. Fernando Collor's disastrous policies in 1990-1992 damaged Brazil's reputation. Fernando Henrique Cardoso later implemented policies like privatization and fiscal responsibility that stabilized the economy but also led to rising inequality as industry declined and public services shrank. However, some studies found that basic social indicators like education, health, and living standards steadily improved in the 1990s despite economic challenges.
Unemployment Problem and Global Financing Related to COVID-19 EpidemicVedat Akman
International Asian Congress of Contemporary Sciences - IV
Haziran 26-28, 2020
Baku, Azerbaijan/ Khazar University
https://www.asyakongresi.org/
“Unemployment Problem and Global Financing Related to COVID-19 Epidemic”
Dr. Öğr. Üyesi H. Vedat AKMAN / Beykent Üniversitesi, İİBF, Finans ve Bankacılık Bölümü
İstanbul, Türkiye
vedatakman@beykent.edu.tr
https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9950-8223
Market-Based Development to Win the War on PovertyRWVentures
This document discusses the War on Poverty launched in 1964 by President Lyndon B. Johnson and whether it achieved success. It launched nearly 200 pieces of legislation still in place today aimed at both relieving and curing poverty, as well as preventing it. While official poverty rates have declined, measures that account for taxes and transfers show poverty is high and rising relative to community standards. The war on poverty succeeded in keeping over 300 million people out of absolute poverty through social programs, but welfare alone is not sufficient and often creates dependency rather than solving the underlying market causes of poverty. There is a need to shift toward moving people and places back into the economic mainstream through market-based development.
Similar to Ed Amann - Werner Baer memorial conference (20)
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- adding systems analysis
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- incorporating environment and social losses
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- modelling non-cooperative behaviour
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Current best practice in the application of ex ante economic analysis tries to address a subset of these developments, but there are no case studies or guidelines that an analyst can reference to learn how best to incorporate all six developments in the ex-ante appraisal of a new dam. We conclude that current professional practice in the ex-ante assessment of large dams has not yet caught up with the scholarly literature on these six developments and highlight the need for a new era of engagement by scholars and practitioners on this “old” challenging problem.
Related Research:
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Ed Amann - Werner Baer memorial conference
1. Werner Baer, his intellectual legacy and
overcoming crisis in Brazil
Edmund Amann, Leiden University
2. Werner’s contributions
• An enormous legacy stretching over five decades
• The range of research is impressive – beyond the
seminal contributions on Brazil – notably “The
Brazilian Economy” - lies work on a slew of other
countries including India and Russia
• But I will reflect on Brazil, its current crisis and how
Werner’s approach to the subject matter can help us
to understand what is going on and whether current
changes in policy could help Brazil to recover
3. Defining Werner’s approach
• The importance of empirical validation – what
works in practice
• The importance of history and institutions and
even cultural factors in explaining economic
behavior
• The deft use of qualitative as well as
quantitative evidence
• The key insights to be gained from appropriate
cross country and intertemporal comparisons
4. • Understanding the close interplay between politics
and economics – Werner’s work in many senses is
political economy in a very pure form
• Understanding the importance of power
relationships in shaping economic decisions
• A skepticism regarding extreme ideological positions
whether they be represented by Pinochet market
fundamentalism or Chavista Bolivarianism
• Above all the importance of detailed evidence and
country knowledge
5. • In essence, Werner’s approach centers on the
structural characteristics of economies; only
through structural reform can performance
improve and sustainable, inclusive growth be
realized
• These considerations inform my review of the
current state of Brazil’s economy and its
prospects for recovery under the new
administration of President Temer
6. Brazil in crisis
• In what follows I draw on some of the
research produced under the IRIBA project
• Werner was part of the project and co-
authored one of the papers
• The papers are available to view in the QREF
Special Issue
10. I
RIBA yellow tint (background): Red=2248, Green=244, Blue=219 (#f8f4db)
Finding 2:
Brazil’s development success was based on inclusive growth
0
.2.4.6.8
0 .19 .38 .57 .76 .95
Percentiles (p)
Confidence interval (95 %) Estimated difference
( Ref. period = initial | Order : s=1 | Dif. = ( Q_2(p) - Q_1(p) ) / Q_1(p) )
Brazil Growth Incidence curve 2001-2012
11. How was greater equality achieved?
• Lower inflation protects real incomes of the
poorest
• Rise in employment incomes for bottom 5
deciles of the population relative to top 5
• Advent of social programmes, especially Bolsa
Familia CCT programme in the late 1990s and
early 2000s
11
12. Finding 3:
Macro stability underpinned progress
The Real Plan - implemented in the mid 1990’s - ended hyperinflation.
There’s been a sustainable expansion of credit to households & businesses.
The national development
bank (BNDES) has played an
active role – particularly
Following the Global Financial
Crisis
13. Finding 4:
Fiscal capacity was vital
Institutional responsibility
was established in the
battle against hyperinflation.
Brazil has benefited from tax
reform and capacity built
from the 1960s.
14. Finding 5:
Agriculture has been transformed
Since 2000, Brazilian agricultural
production and exports have
increased enormously.
The production of crops rose by
over 150%, while exports multiplied
eightfold from 1990 to 2012
Not the result of an overarching plan
– but the product of various
institutions mutually reinforcing
each other
15. Finding 6:
Brazil shows the ‘resource curse’ is not inevitable
High-valued wood products
Phytotherapics and
phytocosmetics components
Biotechnology
Leading firms re-organize and re-focus their
research activities to face the new economic
and institutional conditions of the 1990s
Electricity and steam
VCP-J
Suzano
Klabin
Leading firms strengthen their internal R&D
after the end of the IPEF/ESALQ external
Aracruz’s breakthrough innovation in
forestry with worldwide recognition
(Marcus Wallenberg Prize)
Suzano completes a six-
year research project
and becomes world’s
first paper maker from
eucalyptus pulp
Leading firms draw on their forestry
innovative capabilities to explore new
technological and market opportunities
Leading firms re-organize their forestry research
activities after the Genolypus project
Leading firms engage in the Genolyptus project
Aracruz structures its forestry R&D centre to tackle
eucalyptus diseases
1950s-1960s 1970s-1980s 1990s 2000s
Brazil is the 4th largest producer of forestry-based pulp and the 9th largest producer of paper
16. Finding 7:
Social policy focused on inclusion & productivism
Innovative antipoverty
transfers have:
1)Explicitly targeted human
development, rather than
simply acting as a more
traditional safety net for the
sick and old.
2)A productivist element,
concerned with economic
inclusion.
3)A focus on citizenship- and
rules-based transfers,
avoiding clientelism.
17. Finding 8:
Rising tax revenues have been redistributed
The tax system
prioritises revenue
raising over
efficiency.
This has funded the
expansion of
antipoverty
transfers and other
social policies.
18. Finding 9:
Human capital accumulation improved average wages, while
labour market institutions reduced earnings inequality
Brazil has invested significantly in
formal education – but also ensures
that effective vocational training is
provided, particularly through SENAI.
Rises to the minimum wage have
helped to reduce inequality since
2005.
The main factors behind the decline
of earnings inequality were reduced
gender, racial and geographical
differentials.
0.59
0.50
0.58
0.47
0.52
0.40.4
.45
.5
.55
.6
GiniIndex
1995 2000 2005 2010
year
Labor income 95% CI Household per
capita income
95% CI
Reduced household incomes and
labour earnings inequality
19. Finding 10:
There were always limitations to the ‘model’
Slowdown in growth
Lack of investment in infrastructure & instability in regulation is stifling
development
Reliance on natural resources
Institutional bottlenecks prevent the
effective prosecution of corruption
Increasing strain on the social contract
22. A Brazilian Crisis?
• Between 2011 and 2013 annual GDP growth slipped from 3.9
to 2.7%, with growth of just 0.1% being realised for 2014
• For 2015 GDP contracted by 3.8%. For 2016 a contraction of
3% is forecast but positive growth of 1.6% is predicted for
2017
• The consensus forecast for consumer price inflation for 2016
is 7.25%, above the central target of 6.5%
• Inflationary pressure has forced the authorities to tighten
fiscal policy while raising interest rates. The current base rate,
at 14.25% , is among the highest for all emerging market
economies
• Brazil registered an annual trade deficit in 2014, the first in 14
years – but there has been a subsequent recovery
22
23. • In Jun-Aug 2016, unemployment reached
11.8% having attained a level much above the
record low of 4.3% achieved in December
2013
• The number of Brazilians below the extreme
poverty line rose between 2012 and 2013
(from 10.08m to 10.45m), the first time a rise
has been registered since 2003
• Accompanying this, social unrest in the run up
to FIFA 2014
23
24. Roots of the crisis: Commodities
• A key leg of the model – high commodity prices -
has been removed
• During the high growth years Brazil became
relatively more dependent on commodity exports
• This is a source of structural weakness which has
afflicted Brazil at many points in history, even
before independence from Portugal
• Since 2012, key commodity prices have
plummeted
24
26. Roots of the crisis: debt
• During the good years (2000-12) corporate and household
debt rose significantly
26
27. Roots of the Crisis:
Lack of Fiscal Discipline
• Meanwhile, failure to contain public spending.
Problem is partly constitutional – 90% of federal
spending ring fenced. Heavy focus on spending
on pensions, social security, transfers to states &
municipalities and debt servicing (the latter
approx 20% of GDP)
• Absence of reform to refocus spending on pro-
growth areas
• Recession magnified problem as revenues
evaporated – erosion of primary surplus
27
28. Real Change in Central Government
Revenues and Expenses, 2011-15 (%)
Source:
IPEA/Banco
Central
Red line: Expenditure; Blue line:
Revenues
28
29. Rising Public Debt
Red and blue lines: respectively net and gross
public debt as a percent of GDP
Source:
Treasury/IPEA 29
30. Roots of the crisis: long term failure to
invest in infrastructure
30
31. Roots of the crisis:
under-investment in education,
low productivity outside NRB sectors
Source: Palma,
2011 31
32. To exit the crisis Brazil will need
reforms in the following areas:
• On the supply side, to improve competitiveness
and diversify the economy away from
commodities. Measures such as indirect tax
simplification, better export-focused
infrastructure and, above all, better training
• For the public sector, tough measures to increase
the scope for discretionary expenditure in pro
growth areas. Above all, pension reform is
needed
• Better adherence to fiscal and monetary targets
32
33. • More transparency and less corruption in
bidding processes for large infrastructure
contracts
• A diversification of low cost credit sources for
fixed capital investment – the BNDES
development bank needs to be supplemented
• Reconfiguration of Mercosur customs union to
reduce exemptions and make it more
attractive for inward investment (could Macri
help?)
33
34. • In sum, as Werner and I discussed many times,
a range of measures are required and
structural issues cannot be ignored
• But all of these involve tackling vested interest
groups, the forging of consensus and, above
all, political will
34
35. The nub of the problem is political
• Over-reliance on commodities, low investment in
productive capacity and build up of excessive
debt were long-term, foreseeable structural
problems
• Governments of Fernando Henrique Cardoso
(PSDB-Social Democrat) and Lula (PT – Workers’
Party) strong reformers
• Were effective in bolstering the supply side and
tacking inflation (FHC) and in better distributing
the fruits of growth (Lula)
35
36. • But neither administration effectively tackled
key issues such as commodity over-
dependence or low productivity
• Could have been a solid policy agenda for
President Dilma Rouseff (PT) (2010-16)
• But instead, policy inertia on these fronts and
misguided interventionism in oil sector and
automobile industry, for example
• Failure to build on Lula’s social reforms, a PT
strong suit
36
37. • Inertia, combined with growing economic pain
has led to drastically low popularity and
credibility for Rousseff administration –
contributed to impeachment in August 2016
• Harder to muster support in Congress where
multi party representation means careful
coalition building is vital
• But President Temer is beginning to push
ahead on his own agenda despite distractions
of Lava Jato and progress looks possible on
fiscal reform…
37
39. Prospects for fundamental reform
• Prospects for fundamental reform in medium run are
not great given political turbulence. Efforts so far
centre on privatization and oil sector deregulation.
Unlikely to be externally imposed (as in 1980s) by
WB/IMF intervention. Why? Healthy foreign reserves
and low incidence of foreign currency denominated
debt/GDP whether sovereign or corporate. No need to
seek official finance
• Eruption of intensified domestic reform movement,
concerted campaigning from business more likely
sources of impetus. In other words any change likely to
be internally rather than externally driven
39
40. Fiscal Reform
• In Oct 2016 administration has introduced
measure that would freeze spending in real
terms for at least 10 years. Strong support in
Lower House
• In the absence of pension and social security
reform, the adoption of the measure would
severely squeeze the scope for discretionary
spending, a problem long recognized by
Werner (Amann & Baer, 2006)
41. • So the second major item on Temer’s
legislative agenda is pension and social
security reform. This has been super
problematic in the past and constitutional
amendments may be required to ensure
success
• There is also the prospect of trying to loosen
the grip of minimum salary adjustments on
public expenditure – very controversial
42. Issues around the
current fiscal reform agenda
• Its imposition is understandable, given that the
economic crisis has deep political roots and investor
confidence needs to be restored
• But big question is whether this new fiscal rule will
be any more achievable in the long term than the old
primary surplus targets
• Also, will it squeeze out growth-enhancing public
investment and poverty alleviation strategies,
notably Minha Casa, Minha Vida and Bolsa Familia?
43. Can Brazil hang on?
• In the absence of fundamental reform, a full
sustained recovery is not possible.
• However, assuming Finance Minister,
Henrique Meirelles, can achieve modest
success in achieving fiscal and inflationary
targets, can a prolonged 1980s-style crisis be
avoided?
43
44. The recovery of the trade balance
• The steep depreciation of the Real and reduced
domestic demand has resulted in a trade surplus,
despite a decline in the demand for key exports
• If Argentina’s growth accelerates under Macri,
the trade balance should continue to move
further into the black
• This should reduce still further the possibility of
difficulties in meeting foreign debt repayment
obligations
44
46. Other factors might help
• Cheap Brazilian assets likely to encourage the
entry of less risk averse foreign investors
• A reversal of the commodities price slump
would create valuable demand side pull.
• A broader regional recovery, perhaps led by
Argentina but potentially embracing a post-
Maduro Venezuela?
46
47. Debt is a worry
• As indicated, the rise of public and private
debt has been significant
• But comparatively little of it is foreign
currency denominated. The stock of this is
only 2.4% of GDP for the federal government
• The bigger problem is Real (R$) denominated
debt
• The default rate for non-personal debt rose
from 3% in March 2011 to 5.9% in May 2016
47
48. However, the scope for the debt issue triggering a full-
blown crisis is limited by:
• The absence of a liabilities currency mismatch issue
• Well capitalised and regulated banking system
• The option of recapitalising the banking system with R$
if a domestic currency denominated debt crisis did
emerge
But real problem with extent of debt is that it limits
freedom to raise interest rates - and inflation is above
target
48
49. Conclusions
• Recovery will require real structural reforms and
the disciplined pursuit of realistic macro targets
• Achievement of the former will be a challenge in
the short to medium term given levels of political
turbulence, but there are signs of progress
• Risk that new fiscal regime may damage growth
• Some positive impetus is likely to be felt from the
turnaround in the trade balance
• A full blown 1980s-style foreign debt crisis is
unlikely given the low incidence of foreign
currency denominated debt and the scale of forex
reserves
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50. • The accumulation of significant public and
private Real-denominated debt does pose
risks but these are in part mitigated by the
presence of a well-capitalised banking system
• So Brazil might just hang on even if progress
slow on fundamental reform, but is anyone
willing to tolerate another “lost decade”?
• All this raises a much broader question: are
Brazil and other key emerging economies
locked in a middle income trap?
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