The pace of global economic recovery slows down IN ADDITION TO THE LONG-TERM CONSEQUENCES OF THE PANDEMIC, THE RUSSIA-UKRAINE WAR AND GEO-ECONOMIC FRAGMENTATION, THERE ARE CYCLICAL CAUSES: TIGHTENING OF MONETARY POLICY, WITHDRAWAL OF FISCAL AID IN THE CONTEXT OF HIGH DEBT AND EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS SIGNS THAT THE POST-PANDEMIC REBOUND IS FADING … Decline in cumulative pandemic savings in advanced economies, especially the US Persistent slowdown in the manufacturing sector: ▼ industrial production, investment and international trade in goods Slowdown in the recovery of the services sector Spain drops out of Europe’s top 10 for economic prosperity IMF FORECASTS SPANISH GDP GROWTH OF 2.5% Y-O-Y IN 2023* AND 1.7% IN 2024 In 2024, Spain ranks 11th in the Eurozone growth ranking, 8 less than in 2023 Average inflation in Spain in 2024* rises to 3.9%, 6 tenths of a pp higher than in the Eurozone

1. 48
50
52
54
56
58
Jan-23 Feb-23 Mar-23 Apr-23 May-23 Jun-23 Jul-23 Aug-23
PMI services Advanced
PMI services Emerging and developing
3.5
3.0
2.9
2022
2023*
2024*
World
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
Jan-19
Apr-19
Jul-19
Oct-19
Jan-20
Apr-20
Jul-20
Oct-20
Jan-21
Apr-21
Jul-21
Oct-21
Jan-22
Apr-22
Jul-22
Oct-22
Jan-23
Apr-23
Jul-23
Ind. Prod. Emerging and developing
Ind. Prod. Advanced
World Trade Volume
PMI manufacturing advanced (right axis)
-2
0
2
4
6
Q3
19
Q4
19
Q1
20
Q2
20
Q3
20
Q4
20
Q1
21
Q2
21
Q3
21
Q4
21
Q1
22
Q2
22
Q3
22
Q4
22
Q1
23
US
UK
Germany
Spain
4.0 3.3 4.0
2022 2023* 2024*
Sub-Saharan Africa
4.1
2.3 2.3
2022 2023* 2024*
Latin America and
the Caribbean 4.5
5.2
4.8
2022 2023* 2024*
Emerging and
developing Asia
5.6
2.0
3.4
2022 2023* 2024*
Middle East and
Central Asia
3.5
0.7
1.2
2022 2023* 2024*
Eurozone
2.1 2.1
1.5
2022 2023* 2024*
US
4.1
4.0
4.0
2022
2023*
2024*
Emerging
& developing
2.6
1.5
1.4
2022
2023*
2024*
Advanced
IMF - Global growth forecasts
ECONOMY
In data
The pace of global economic recovery slows down
Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on IMF, 2023.
SPAIN
INFLATION
2024*
3.9%
y-o-y,
3.5% in 2023*
1.7%
SPAIN
GDP GROWTH
2024*
y-o-y,
2.5% in 2023*
EUROZONE
INFLATION
2024*
3.3%
y-o-y,
5.6% in 2023*
Increasing growth divergences among regions
% y-o-y GDP change
GLOBAL
GDP GROWTH
2024*
y-o-y,
3.0% in 2023*
2.9%
IN ADDITION TO THE LONG-TERM CONSEQUENCES OF THE PANDEMIC, THE RUSSIA-UKRAINE WAR AND GEO-ECONOMIC FRAGMENTATION,
THERE ARE CYCLICAL CAUSES: TIGHTENING OF MONETARY POLICY, WITHDRAWAL OF FISCAL AID IN THE CONTEXT OF HIGH DEBT AND
EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS
* Forecasts
SIGNS THAT THE POST-PANDEMIC REBOUND IS FADING ...
Decline in cumulative pandemic savings in advanced
economies, especially the US
Slowdown in the recovery of the services sector
Persistent slowdown in the manufacturing sector: ▼ industrial
production, investment and international trade in goods
% of GDP
Index ≥ 50: expansion
% y-o-y change; PMI ≥ 50: expansion, on right axis
Spain drops out of Europe's top 10 for economic prosperity
IMF FORECASTS SPANISH GDP GROWTH OF 2.5% Y-O-Y IN 2023* AND 1.7% IN 2024
In 2024*, Spain ranks 11th in the Eurozone growth ranking,
8 less than in 2023*
% y-o-y GDP change
2024*
Spain disappears from
the Top 10
11º
Eurozone
2023* 0.7%
Average inflation in Spain in 2024* rises to 3.9%,
6 tenths of a pp higher than in the Eurozone
% y-o-y change. Top 5 lowest inflation Eurozone
5.6 (23*) y 3.3 (24*)